Analysis Topic: Economic Trends Analysis
The analysis published under this topic are as follows.
Sunday, June 24, 2012
Leading U.S. Economic Indicators and the Yield Curve, Where’s All That Money Going? / Economics / Global Debt Crisis 2012
By: John_Mauldin
I have often said that when someone is appointed to be a member of the Federal Reserve, they are taken into a back room and given a complete DNA change. They simply are not like you and me once they step out of that room, with the exception of Fisher and Lacker and a few colleagues who seem to be able to resist the infection. This week we will look at the recent action of the Fed and use that as a springboard to think about how effective Fed policy can be in an age of deleveraging. And if there is time, we simply must look at Europe. I started this letter in Texas and will finish it this morning in Spain.
Sunday, June 24, 2012
U.S. Debt Crisis, This is Not America / Economics / US Debt
By: Raul_I_Meijer
Over the past few days, Henry Blodget at Business Insider posted a number of graphs, here and here, which depict something about the US economy that everybody knows to some extent or another, but that most of us won't have let thoroughly sink in. For some because the consequences are too opaque, for others because they are too scary. But make no mistake: we can only continue to ignore or misinterpret them at our own peril. And even then it's terribly late in the game.
Friday, June 22, 2012
Reasons Why U.S. Recession Has Arrived (Or Will Shortly) / Economics / Double Dip Recession
By: Mike_Shedlock
I am amused by the Shadow Weekly Leading Index Project which claims the probability of recession is 31%. I think it is much higher.
When the NBER, the official arbiter of recessions finally backdates the recession, May or June of 2012 appear to be likely months. Let's take a look at why.
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Thursday, June 21, 2012
Fed Downgrades U.S. Economic Outlook and Buys Insurance / Economics / US Economy
By: Asha_Bangalore
Of the Fed's three options available today (do nothing, engage in QE3, extend Operation Twist), it has chosen the diplomatic route. It appears the Fed was concerned that if it took the path of using only language to indicate support it could rock a fragile global financial system. Given that emergency aid could not be justified, QE3 was out of the question at the present time. The Fed has chosen an extension of Operation Twist as it provides insurance and has fewer avenues of criticism. The Fed indicated that an extension of maturities of its Treasury security holdings will not expire as of June but will remain in place until the end of 2012. The expectation is that this action would exert downward pressure on long term interest rates.
Thursday, June 21, 2012
Economic Austerity Vs Debt Default / Economics / Global Debt Crisis 2012
By: Adrian_Ash
"I have seen a grievous evil under the sun; wealth hoarded to the harm of its owners." – Ecclesiastes 5:13
MOST PEOPLE still get it. Hardly anyone dares guess where it leads.
Wednesday, June 20, 2012
Economic Growth Versus Austerity: A U.S. Dollar Perspective / Economics / Economic Theory
By: Axel_Merk
Austerity versus Growth? Which economic model is sustainable? If it weren’t for those pesky bond vigilantes, it may be only politics. Let’s not get too excited that either path will work. Let’s look at the implications for investors with a focus on the U.S. dollar.
Wednesday, June 20, 2012
Krugman’s Greek Temple of Keynesianism / Economics / Economic Theory
By: William_Anderson
A lot of people have weighed in on the Greek Morality Play, better known as the collapse of Greece's economy, and there is no shortfall of "wisdom" and advice. (For that matter, I made comments myself on the Greek situation during an interview on the RT network last March.)
Not surprisingly, Paul Krugman has weighed in again, and this time he not only claims that the problem is not enough inflation, but also deliberately ignores the real problem behind much of the Greek collapse: Greece's notorious and "bloated" (to use a term from Krugman's employer, the New York Times) bureaucracies led by its militant public employee unions. Instead, Krugman sets up other straw men and then claims that if only – If Only! – the Germans would crank up the monetary printing presses, Greece could be saved.
Before going into specifics, I would like to point out that Krugman is correct when he notes that a single currency union of many states indeed does impose certain fiscal restrictions. The examples he uses for the United States are dishonest, and even when explaining the European currency union, he does not tell the whole story, lapsing, instead, into his usual spate of accusations coupled with his demands for more inflation. (And, yes, I will explain my point later in this piece.)
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Wednesday, June 20, 2012
Euro-zone Debt Crisis Puts Germany Between a Rock and Hard Place / Economics / Germany
By: Ian_R_Campbell
Why Read: In order to better understand Germany's Eurozone dependencies, and why Germany is between 'a rock and a hard place' as it makes decisions that likely will:
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Wednesday, June 20, 2012
Europe's Solution isn't More Inflation / Economics / Inflation
By: Michael_Pento
We now live in a phony economic world where central bankers rule without check. Any hint of weakening data, which is actually a sign of reality and healing returning to the economy, is quickly met with the promise of more disastrous money printing. Last week we saw U.S. factory orders down and initial jobless claims rise. In Europe, we saw the Spanish bank bailout fall flat on its face and interest rates spike in Spain and Italy. Therefore, in predictable fashion, financial markets soared on the premise that the ECB and Fed must imminently ride to the rescue once again.
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Tuesday, June 19, 2012
BBC Reports Falling UK CPI Inflation as Good News, Misses the Inflationary Depression In Progress / Economics / Inflation
By: Nadeem_Walayat
The BBC with much fanfare has been leading its news bulletins all day with the apparent good news that the UK CPI Inflation rate had fallen in mAY to 2.8%, its lowest level for 2.5 years, with it's economics experts and members of the general public presented as painting the news as a highly positive development.
Tuesday, June 19, 2012
U.S. Economy Flirting with Disaster / Economics / US Economy
By: John_Mauldin
This week I offer a main course, a veritable piece de resistance, for Outside the Box readers, from my friend Rich Yamarone. Rich is Chief Economist for Bloomberg and one really sharp talent. He helps write Bloomberg Brief: Economics, a daily notebook that comes out every business morning with an all-encompassing view of what's happening and will happen.
I have been on stage with him several times recently and have spent even more time with him over dinners. He keeps reminding me to pay attention to the slow-motion slowdown and eventual (he says) recession that is coming right here to the US. He thinks ten-year bond rates could scare 0.5% (not a typo!) if/when both Europe and China have a simultaneous crisis and the US is seen as a real –and perhaps the last – safe haven (to which I would add: besides gold). Certainly 1% on the ten-year and 2% on the 30-year will be on offer in such a scenario.
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Monday, June 18, 2012
Heads A Deflationary Implosion - Tails A Hyperinflationary Depression... / Economics / Global Economy
By: Clive_Maund
The acute global economic crisis today is the direct result of the continued willful obstruction and overriding of the normal checks and balances that should operate within a capitalistic system of commerce. This interference has been perpretated by powerful banks and governments acting in collusion, for reasons of profit and power. At every instance in recent years when it looked like the economy was slipping into a necessary recession they have assumed a godlike role and stepped in to head it off.
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Monday, June 18, 2012
Krugman's Keynsian Economics, End This Nonsense Now! / Economics / Economic Theory
By: David_Gordon
End This Depression Now! By Paul Krugman. Norton, 2012. Xii + 259 pages
Supporters of Keynesian economics sometimes claim it to be a crude caricature of the Master that he thought the government has only to spend more money to get us out of a depression and that getting us into debt doesn't matter because we owe it to ourselves. Keynes, it is alleged, was a vastly more sophisticated thinker than this caricature portrays him to be. These defenders may find End This Depression Now! disconcerting. Krugman, who whatever his faults certainly is not lacking in technical sophistication, defends pretty much the cartoon version of Keynesianism that we are told is oversimplified.
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Monday, June 18, 2012
You Don’t Need to be a Lefty to Support Krugman Just Economically Illiterate / Economics / Economic Theory
By: Mike_Shedlock
Financial Times writer Samuel Brittan says You Don’t Need to be a Lefty to Support Krugman.
Brittan kicks off with "The remedy for too little spending is more spending. Everything else is commentary."
Wednesday, June 13, 2012
Inflation or Deflation? / Economics / Economic Theory
By: Ian_R_Campbell
Why Read: Because whether we are going to be faced with inflation or deflation in the developed countries, and the world economy generally is a critical question - and one that affects not just investors, but everyone.
Featured Article: In a recently published article Michael Pento (Pento Portfolio Strategies), said to be an Austrian School of Economics specialist, says (among other things):
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Tuesday, June 12, 2012
Global Economic Growth, China Eases the Way / Economics / China Economy
By: Frank_Holmes
Following negative data last week, investors were clearly concerned about global growth and anxiously anticipated government actions. While Europe and the U.S. disappointed investors, China surprised on the upside by cutting interest rates. The market reacted positively, as the S&P 500 Index increased 3.7 percent.
It's clear the government's tone in China shifted this week with the rate cuts. The government appeared to be comfortable with slower growth, but that position seemed to change as the country took steps to avert a hard landing and cut interest rates to stabilize the economy.
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Tuesday, June 12, 2012
What Will Economic Austerity Look Like for America? / Economics / Economic Austerity
By: EWI
Since the start of the European sovereign debt debacle, the word "austerity" has been bandied about a lot.
It wasn't an everyday word, and may send some people to the dictionary. Merriam-Webster defines "austerity" this way: enforced or extreme economy.
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Monday, June 11, 2012
Free Trade: The Litmus Test of Economics / Economics / Economic Theory
By: Gary_North
Free trade is the litmus test of economic reasoning. It has been ever since David Hume wrote his 1752 essay on commerce.
Read full article... Read full article...Foreign trade, by its imports, furnishes materials for new manufactures; and by its exports, it produces labour in particular commodities, which could not be consumed at home. In short, a kingdom, that has a large import and export, must abound more with industry, and that employed upon delicacies and luxuries, than a kingdom which rests contented with its native commodities. It is, therefore, more powerful, as well as richer and happier. The individuals reap the benefit of these commodities, so far as they gratify the senses and appetites. And the public is also a gainer, while a greater stock of labour is, by this means, stored up against any public exigency; that is, a greater number of laborious men are maintained, who may be diverted to the public service, without robbing any one of the necessaries, or even the chief conveniencies of life.
Sunday, June 10, 2012
Asian Stock Market Crash Trigger?, Great Depression 2 / Economics / Great Depression II
By: Andrew_McKillop
Logically, a more globalized economy should generate globalized depressions as well as growth surges, that is increased synchronization should be easy to identify in the data: to be sure and certain, the exact opposite reasoning, of compensating de-synchronized regional movements in the economy is used by defenders of globalization. Today, it is Europe which is leading the OECD downward, while in 2008-2009, arguably, it was the USA but at the time the emerging economies of China, India, Russia, Brazil, South Africa, Turkey, Argentina and other large or growing nonOECD economies were completely out of phase with the OECD group, and were growing strongly.
Sunday, June 10, 2012
The Fiasco of Fiat Money / Economics / Fiat Currency
By: Thorsten_Polleit
Today's worldwide paper-, or "fiat-," money regime is an economically and socially destructive scheme — with far-reaching and seriously harmful economic and societal consequences, effects that extend beyond what most people would imagine.
Fiat money is inflationary; it benefits a few at the expense of many others; it causes boom-and-bust cycles; it leads to overindebtedness; it corrupts society's morals; and it will ultimately end in a depression on a grand scale.
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