Analysis Topic: Economic Trends Analysis
The analysis published under this topic are as follows.
Saturday, February 12, 2011
Widening of U.S. Trade Deficit Partly Reflects Jump in Oil Imports / Economics / US Economy
By: Asha_Bangalore
The trade deficit of the U.S. economy widened to $40.6 billion in December from $38.3 billion in the prior month. Exports (+1.8%) and imports (+2.6%) of goods and services advanced in December. Petroleum imports (+12.2% in real terms) made up a large part of imports in December.Read full article... Read full article...
Saturday, February 12, 2011
Evidence Supports Benign Near Term U.S. Inflation Trend / Economics / Inflation
By: Asha_Bangalore
Inflation is not the headline story of 2011; albeit a few glaring monthly readings due to higher food and energy prices are possible. On what grounds can we be sure of this claim? First, the current readings of inflationary measures are below levels consistent with price stability. The FOMC's preference is 2.0% or slightly below 2.0% inflation readings. As shown in Chart 1, inflation measures have posted gains below 2.0% in recent monthly reports and projected growth of the economy in 2011 suggests a benign inflationary environment.
Friday, February 11, 2011
In the Midst of the Big Bang of 2008, Economic Collapse Has Already Occurred / Economics / Financial Crash
By: Mac_Slavo
In the 1930’s Georges Lemaître presented the theory that our universe started with a Big Bang. For the better part of the 20th century, it was assumed that the Big Bang event took place in a matter of a few seconds and sent the necessary elements for everything from magnetism to stars to life flying throughout the universe.
Friday, February 11, 2011
QE2 Sets Off Inflation Alarms / Economics / Inflation
By: Mike_Whitney
Ever since he launched the second round of his bond-buying program (QE2), Ben Bernanke has been on a roll. The S&P has gained 10 percent and the economic data has improved dramatically. Manufacturing and retail have rebounded, consumer confidence has started to brighten, and personal consumption (PCE) is on the rise. Car sales, hotel occupancy and exports are all up, too. Even the banks seem to be more eager to lend than they were just a few months ago. Only housing is still in the doldrums and the Fed chairman probably has something up his sleeve for that, too.
Friday, February 11, 2011
Decoding the Truth About Inflation / Economics / Inflation
By: Richard_Daughty
Proving once again that investing in fixed-yield bonds when the foul, filthy Federal Reserve is creating so much money (so that their governments can deficit-spend it!) is a stupid, stupid, stupid idea because inflation will result, Agora Financial's 5-Minute Forecast newsletter reports that "Already since October, the rate on the 10-year has jumped from 2.4% to 3.6% - a 50% increase." Yikes!
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Friday, February 11, 2011
Weather Distorts Initial Jobless Claims / Economics / Unemployment
By: Asha_Bangalore
Initial jobless claims fell 36,000 to 383,000 during the week ended February 5. A large part of the nation experienced severely inclement weather during this week, which suggests that the initial jobless claims numbers of the past week did not capture the entire count. Next week's report should give a better read on initial jobless claims. Continuing claims, which lag initial jobless claims by one week, dropped 47,000 to 3.888 million after a decline of 74,000 the prior week.
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Friday, February 11, 2011
Inflation - Advanced Economies vs. Emerging Economies / Economics / Inflation
By: Asha_Bangalore
The Bank of England (BOE) and The European Central Bank (ECB) have chosen to stand pat after their recent policy meetings. However, inflation readings in the UK and the Euro area are problematic, particularly in the UK. President Trichet of the ECB, last week, presented a less concerned stance about inflation compared with his comments in prior weeks. Inflation in the Euro area (2.2%) is slightly higher than the target rate of 2.0%.
Friday, February 11, 2011
Escaping the Great Depression and Extending the Greater Depression / Economics / Great Depression II
By: Casey_Research
Doug Casey, The Casey Report writes: Here at Casey Research, our view of the Great Depression of the 1930s is a little different from that of most people. In our eyes, Franklin Roosevelt wasn't a hero, he was a villain. Nearly everything he did served to extend and deepen the economic downturn.
With the exception of supporting the 21st Amendment for the repeal of Prohibition, Roosevelt's involvement in the economy was an unmitigated disaster. But in popular memory, that failure is obscured by U.S. success in WW2, over which Roosevelt presided.
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Thursday, February 10, 2011
U.S. 9% Unemployment Rate is a Statistical Lie / Economics / Economic Statistics
By: Submissions
Greg Hunter writes: The Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) released the latest unemployment figures last Friday. There was a stunning drop to 9% from 9.4%. How did that happen? Is the economy really getting better or is the government up to its old statistical tricks. According to the mainstream media, the economy is getting better and the so-called recovery is alive and well.
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Wednesday, February 09, 2011
G7 Banana Republics ON the Money Printing Inflation Road to ZIMBABWE! / Economics / Inflation
By: Ty_Andros
The global financial cataclysm is mushrooming with every stroke of the keyboard at a central bank, with the issuance of new debt to cover old debt, and with the illusion of creating money out of thin air. It is all debt, nothing else, with no final settlement…. EVER. You exchange the money you work for and save and buy a government bond; they print the money to pay you back and PRETEND you have been paid. The situation is just as Von Mises outlined:
Wednesday, February 09, 2011
How to Beat the Looming Inflation Tsunami / Economics / Inflation
By: Money_Morning
Martin Hutchinson writes:
Inflation is coming our way. Make no mistake about it.
This insidious increase in the general level of prices is currently rattling around in the world's emerging markets - causing China and Brazil to put up interest rates and India to try and suppress it with price controls. It's beginning to appear in Britain, which had a similar crash to the United States, but where the currency has been somewhat weaker.
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Wednesday, February 09, 2011
Phony Official Inflation Statistics Produced by Dirty Rotten Scoundrels / Economics / Inflation
By: Rob_Kirby
The purpose of this paper is to draw particular attention to the recent disparity in crude oil prices – namely the difference between two benchmarks - West Texas Intermediate [WTI] and Brent [North Sea] Crude. Historically the price of WTI trades at a premium to lesser quality Brent North Sea Crude. This paper lays out the case that the extreme, existing, observable price discrepancies is likely the result of engineered and arbitrary market manipulations – to be discussed below. Such arbitrary price manipulations in the oil markets impact negatively on the oil exporting economies and show favor to oil importing economies.
Wednesday, February 09, 2011
Bullish Small Business Optimism Index and Opposing Views from the Fed / Economics / US Economy
By: Asha_Bangalore
The NFIB survey results of small businesses for January 2011 point to an improved outlook. The composite index moved up to 94.1 in January from 92.6 in the prior month. The level of the composite index is close to the pre-recession reading of 94.4 in November 2007 (see Chart 1).
Wednesday, February 09, 2011
China, Inflation and Gold, China created paper money and paper money then created Inflation / Economics / Inflation
By: Darryl_R_Schoon
Ralph T. Foster in his invaluable book, Fiat Paper Money, The History and Evolution of Our Currency, writes that paper money made its first appearance in Szechwan, a remote province of China early in the 11th century.
Because of a shortage of copper coins, provincial officials had begun circulating iron coins; but the difference in value and weight between the two metals caused unexpected problems.
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Tuesday, February 08, 2011
Changing Perception of the U.S. Economy Food for Thought / Economics / Economic Recovery
By: Asha_Bangalore
The 2-year Treasury note is trading around 0.78% today, from a low of 0.54% on January 28. The 10-year Treasury note yield has moved up to 3.67% from 3.36% in the same period (see Chart 1). The bond market essentially signals the U.S. economy is turning around and is most likely to establish sustained growth in 2011. A part of the bullish sentiment commenced after Bernanke's speech in the last week of August 2010 when the Fed signaled that a second round of support was on its way.
Monday, February 07, 2011
China a Trade Growth Machine Investors Ignore at their Own Risk / Economics / China Economy
By: Justin_John
There are very few macro points in the world that needs to be understood and analysed more than the story of the dragon and its kids. Infact for a generation to come, we may be telling the story of the great dragon which breathed fire and consumed the eagle in the sky. What happens to the dragon after that is the plot where almost everyone has a different ending.
Monday, February 07, 2011
Subjective Value and Market Prices / Economics / Economic Theory
By: Robert_Murphy
One of the most subtle aspects of modern economic theory is the relation between subjective value and objective money prices. This is an area where the Austrians have an advantage over other schools, because they care more about their forebears than most other economists, and because Austrians were instrumental in the development of subjective-value theory.
Sunday, February 06, 2011
China Economy in the Year of the Rabbit / Economics / Emerging Markets
By: John_Derrick
Happy New Year 4708!
According to the Chinese calendar it’s the Year of the Rabbit. The leading Asian brokerage firm CLSA reports the Rabbit will “wrest the reins from the decidedly unpleasant and erratic Tiger that’s been tossing and turning the markets over the past 12 months.” We all could appreciate a respite from extreme volatility.
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Sunday, February 06, 2011
If Friday's U.S. Employment Data Confused You... / Economics / Economic Statistics
By: Trader_Mark
... this story via AP should help 'clear' it up. There remains a lot of confusion even by economists who follow this stuff for a living. Essentially the larger story is traditional businesses are not hiring at pace so large swathes of America are either (a) dropping out of the workforce or (b) becoming self employed. Hence the new workers in category b respond affirmatively when the household survey calls and asks "are you working?". Even if working means selling some of those old Beanie Babies on their new fangled Ebay store.
Saturday, February 05, 2011
The Burden of Lower Economic Growth and Frequent Recessions / Economics / US Economy
By: John_Mauldin
"My best guess is that we'll have a continued recovery, but it won't feel terrific. Even though technically we'll be in recovery and the economy will be growing, unemployment will still be high for a while and that means that a lot of people will be under financial stress." -- Benjamin Bernanke, Chairman of the Federal Reserve in a Q&A at the Woodrow Wilson International Center for Scholars