Analysis Topic: Economic Trends Analysis
The analysis published under this topic are as follows.
Friday, February 04, 2011
Initial Jobless Claims Decline, Assessment of Labor Market Little Changed / Economics / Unemployment
By: Asha_Bangalore
Initial jobless claims fell 42,000 during the week ended January 29 to 415,000, reversing nearly the entire 54,000 jump recorded in the prior week. The Labor Department has indicated that declines in initial jobless claims were from states who reported storm-related increases in the prior week. Inclement weather in several states this week suggests that additional backlogs due to bad weather are likely to distort readings once again. Continuing claims, which lag initial jobless claims by one week, fell 84,000 to 3.925 million. Claims filed under special programs, which lag initial jobless claims by two weeks, show a small drop for the week ended January 15 (4.55 million vs. 4.69 million for week ended January 8, see Chart 8).Read full article... Read full article...
Friday, February 04, 2011
The Greater Depression Smoot-Hawley Redux / Economics / Protectionism
By: James_Quinn
As the Greater Depression continues along a parallel pathway with the Great Depression of the 1930s, Congress is about to commit the same blunder it made in 1930. The rocket scientists in the House of Representatives in September passed the Currency Reform for Fair Trade Act, which aims to crack down on Chinese currency manipulation by targeting imports from China and other countries with currencies that are perceived to be undervalued.Read full article... Read full article...
Thursday, February 03, 2011
Inflationary Indications of the Broadest Measure of Money Supply / Economics / Money Supply
By: Richard_Daughty
The Gold Report interviewed John Williams of ShadowStats.com, who said, "I continue to track M3, the Fed's broadest measure of the money supply until it ceased publication in March of 2006. Generally, the broader the measure of systemic liquidity, the better it serves as a predictor. In terms of giving a signal for the economy, you have to adjust the growth for inflation."
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Wednesday, February 02, 2011
The Economic “Recovery” in Consumer Loans Isn’t Real / Economics / US Economy
By: Casey_Research
Bud Conrad, The Casey Report writes: The amount of loans being provided by our banking system is a good reflector of the strength of our economy. Below is a big-picture view that shows the total loans in the U.S. as the Fed reports in its H.8 each week. We can see that loans outstanding declined at a rapid rate at the beginning of the current great recession, but there seems to be a recovery in the little jump at the end of the chart, as highlighted by the two small black arrows. A little closer look shows that the Consumer Loans segment is the source of the optimism that we see in the total.
Wednesday, February 02, 2011
How the US Government Manipulates Inflation Data / Economics / Inflation
By: PhilStockWorld
The PCE bothered me yesterday.
The Government told us that the PCE core price index for December was 0% - no inflation at all. I found that to be incredible - as in not credible at all and then Tusked asked me how long the Bernank could keep justifying his rampant money printing with fake government data, to which I responded: "I had many derogatory things to say about that but I was literally so sickened by that BS that I couldn’t bring myself to comment on it so I just left it alone but it’s a very sad joke that our government can tell us that there was no inflation in December while the whole planet is falling apart, isn’t it?"
Tuesday, February 01, 2011
India a Foreign Investors Paradise, Devastating Impacts of the EU-India Free Trade Agreement / Economics / India
By: Global_Research
Kavaljit Singh writes: Under the proposed India-EU free trade agreement, the European Commission (EC) has sought an expansive mandate to negotiate on investment issues on the behalf of the European Union. On January 20, 2011, the EC officially made recommendations to the European Council seeking modifications in the negotiating directives for the trade agreement with India.
Tuesday, February 01, 2011
Inflation is Here to Stay / Economics / Inflation
By: Michael_Pento
In current economic analysis, inflation is largely in the eye of the beholder, and depending on how you choose to look, very different stories emerge. In the U.S., food and beverages count for just 16.4% of the CPI calculation. The Chinese apparently believe that the basic necessities of life should count for more, assigning a 33% weight to the nutritional components. These differences in measurement are partially responsible for the divergent inflation climate in both countries, and make most people believe that inflation is fickle and localized. From my perspective, inflation is a global wave that will ultimately swamp all shores.
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Tuesday, February 01, 2011
China’s Inflation Rate Nudges U.S. Retailers to Look to Other Asian Suppliers / Economics / Inflation
By: Money_Morning
Kerri Shannon writes:
China's inflation rate is climbing faster than expected, triggering a wave of price increases across the country and spurring foreign companies to search elsewhere for suppliers.
China's consumer price index hit 4.6% in December and 5.1% in November - it's highest level in 28 months. Annual inflation for 2010 was 3.3%, which is above the government's 3% target rate.
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Tuesday, February 01, 2011
Could China Be Forced To Bring A New Global Recession by 2015? / Economics / China Economy
By: Dian_L_Chu
Bloomberg on Sunday, Jan. 30 cited a 28-page report--The Financial Crisis of 2015: An Avoidable History (pdf file below)--by Barrie Wilkinson, a London-based partner at consulting firm Oliver Wyman.
The report describes a scenario--spanned 2013 to 2015--when Western QE-induced inflation brings down China, creating a debt crisis in the commodity sector--inclusive of resource-dependent countries as well as commodity producers--which eventually plunge the world into another recession, and a new world order by 2015.
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Tuesday, February 01, 2011
Japan Learns to Live with Deflation, If Only Analysts Could Figure Out How / Economics / Deflation
By: Mike_Shedlock
In Japan, wages are lower, but so are prices for goods and services, even food. Japan's companies are devising ways to profit from deflation, says Bloomberg writer Aki Ito in Japan Learns to Live with Deflation.
Tuesday, February 01, 2011
The Fed and Job Creation / Economics / Central Banks
By: Dr_Ron_Paul
Unemployment continues to plague our economy. In spite of constant claims that we have just turned the corner into recovery, the jobs reports remain grim with no real signs of improvement. While Keynesian economists and big government apologists scratch their heads about persistent unemployment in spite of unprecedented government "investment" in the economy, free market economists understand the problem perfectly well. In short, they understand that we are looking to the Federal Reserve to solve an unemployment crisis that the Fed itself largely created.
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Tuesday, February 01, 2011
Dismantling John Williams’ Hyperinflation Predictions / Economics / HyperInflation
By: Mike_Stathis
If you look around on the various gold bug web sites, you are likely to see the same crowd posting the same lines of hyperinflation and everything else they can conjure up in order to scare people into loading up on excessive amounts of physical gold. Note the emphasis on “physical gold” rather than gold ETFs.
Never mind that gold has very little utility. Never mind that physical gold is not considered a liquid asset. Never mind that gold hacks are financially tied into rising gold prices and therefore have a financial interest in pumping up the price of gold. You should buy gold and hold it because it’s going to continue to rise in price as the end of the dollar nears, right? Not so fast.
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Monday, January 31, 2011
PopCon: The ‘Economic Recovery’ Lie / Economics / Economic Recovery
By: James_West
It is only human to seek reasons for optimism, and to find comfort in self-delusion. “You’re going to be just fine,” is probably one of the most frequent lies told among family members when serious injury or illness occurs. We have to believe we’re going to be “just fine”, because the alternative is too painful, and painfully unacceptable.
Sunday, January 30, 2011
U.S. Real Statistical Economic Recovery, Bubble Complacency / Economics / US Economy
By: John_Mauldin
The Recent GDP Numbers – A Real Statistical Recovery
Consumer Spending Rose? Where Was the Income?
A Bubble in Complacency
Egypt
This week I had the privilege of being on the same panel with former Comptroller General David Walker and former Majority Leader (and presidential candidate) Richard Gephardt. A Democrat to the left of me and a self-declared nonpartisan to the right, stuck in the middle and not knowing where the unrehearsed conversation would take us. As it turned out, to a very interesting conclusion, which is the topic of this week's letter. By way of introduction to those not familiar with them, David M. Walker (born 1951) served as United States Comptroller General from 1998 to 2008, and is now the Founder and CEO of the Comeback America Initiative. Gephardt served in Congress for 28 years, was House Majority Leader from 1989 to 1995 and Minority Leader from 1995 to 2003, running for president in 1988 and 2004.
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Saturday, January 29, 2011
Q4 Real Gross Domestic Product Shows U.S. Economy is on Expansion Path / Economics / Economic Recovery
By: Asha_Bangalore
Real gross domestic product of the U.S. economy rose at an annual rate of 3.2% in the fourth quarter of 2010 after slower growth in the second and third quarters of the year. In 2010, on an annual average basis, the economy grew 2.9% after a 2.6% decline in 2009 and a steady reading in 2008. The level of real GDP in the fourth quarter ($13,382.6 billion) exceeds the peak registered in the fourth quarter of 2007 ($13,363.5billion). Effectively, the economic recovery phase is history and the U.S. is on a path of economic expansion (see Chart 2).
Friday, January 28, 2011
Why Consumer Spending Remains a Problem / Economics / US Economy
By: Profit_Confidential
Consumer spending on Black Friday and Cyber Monday was excellent, but the spending momentum failed to extend into the holiday shopping season. The retail sales excluding auto in December slipped to 0.5%, down from one percent in November and below the estimate of 0.6%. Spending remains problematic and will hamper growth.
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Friday, January 28, 2011
Is the Fed Taking the Economic Recovery Too Far, Too Fast? / Economics / Economic Recovery
By: Clif_Droke
The latest round of economic numbers continues to impress Wall Street and is keeping hopes of a continued economic recovery alive. Many observers question, however, if perhaps the Fed is taking the recovery too far, too fast.On Wednesday, the Commerce Department reported that new home sales for December increased 17.5% month-over-month to an annualized rate of 329,000 units. This was above the consensus rate of 300,000 units and traders jumped into stocks on the news. The 17.5% increase comes following the 5.5% gain that occurred in November.
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Friday, January 28, 2011
U.S. Durable Goods and Housing Home Sales Data / Economics / US Economy
By: Asha_Bangalore
Durable goods orders fell 2.5% in December, reflecting largely the impact of a significant drop in orders of civilian aircraft ($24 million vs. $5.019 billion in November). Excluding transportation, orders of durable goods moved up 0.5% in December vs. 4.5% gain in the prior month. Also orders of non-defense capital goods excluding aircraft rose 1.4% in December.
Wednesday, January 26, 2011
New World Order: Food Price Inflation; House Price Deflation / Economics / Inflation
By: Richard_Daughty
You can tell by my bleary, bloodshot eyes, my rumpled appearance, my musky aromas and my overtly hostile attitude that I have been holed up in the Mogambo Armageddon Bunker (MAB), scared out of my mind about the inflation in prices that is surely going to consume us, thanks to the unholy Federal Reserve creating so incredibly much, so stupendously much, so astoundingly much, So Freaking Much Money (SFMM).
Wednesday, January 26, 2011
IMF Global Economic Forecast Revised Up on Emerging Market Growth & U.S. Tax Cuts / Economics / Global Economy
By: Money_Morning
Don Miller writes:
The International Monetary Fund (IMF) yesterday (Tuesday) raised its 2011 global economic forecast based on strong growth in emerging markets and stronger U.S. output fueled by tax-cut extensions.
The world economy will expand by 4.4%, more than the 4.2% the IMF projected in October, while growth in 2012 is expected to be 4.5%, unchanged from October, the agency said in an update to its World Economic Outlook report.
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