Analysis Topic: Economic Trends Analysis
The analysis published under this topic are as follows.
Wednesday, March 16, 2011
Does Economic Growth Cause Inflation? / Economics / Inflation
By: Frank_Shostak
The yearly rate of growth of personal consumer outlays jumped from 2.5 percent in August last year to 3.8 percent this January.
The growth momentum of personal income has been pushing ahead strongly since May last year.
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Wednesday, March 16, 2011
China Ready to Pull the World Economy Out of the Doldrums? / Economics / China Economy
By: ECR_Research
Renate van Ginderen writes:
The role of China’s 12th Five-Year Plan
China’s twelfth Five-Year plan promises reform in all key areas of the economy. The plan will have to guide China between 2011 and 2016 towards a more sustainable, balanced, stable, and coordinated growth model. However, the problem is that it actually does not differ much from the eleventh Five-Year plan announced in 2006, whereas that plan did only do so much. The new real annual growth target is reduced from 7,5% to ‘just’ 7%: enormous in Western terms, but drastically lower than the 9,3% attained in 2010. So will this drag the economy down? Probably not. The growth target for the 11th Five-Year Plan has been overshoot largely. It is much more likely the central government will not really succeed in redirecting its economy, as will be discussed below.
Wednesday, March 16, 2011
Corporate Cash Stash Soars to $1.9 Trillion, Maybe Marx Was Right After All... / Economics / Economic Theory
By: Mike_Whitney
Two and a half years have passed since Lehman Brothers collapsed and US consumers are still digging out.
Last Thursday, the Fed released its “flow of funds” report which showed that households had trimmed their debt to $13.3 trillion in the forth quarter (4Q). But the crucial debt-to-income ratio remains significantly above trend at 120.9%. That means that consumers will have to cut their spending even more.
Wednesday, March 16, 2011
FOMC Meeting 15th March: Fed More Bullish, Japan U.S. Trade Facts / Economics / US Economy
By: Asha_Bangalore
The Fed left the federal funds rate unchanged at 0%-0.25%, as expected and indicated it would continue its quantitative easing program of $600 billion. There were no dissents at the meeting, despite disagreements among members about the quantitative easing program that is underway, as revealed in the minutes of the January meeting and subsequent speeches of Fed Presidents.
Monday, March 14, 2011
Economic Aftershocks of the Japan Earthquake / Economics / Japan Economy
By: Money_Morning
David Zeiler writes:
The 8.9 magnitude earthquake and resulting tsunami that hit northeastern Japan today (Friday) had an immediate impact on financial markets all over the world. However, the effects of the damage and rebuilding will reverberate through the Japanese economy for months, if not years.
Monday, March 14, 2011
A Good Looking Economy is Not Always a Good Economy / Economics / Austrailia
By: Gerard_Jackson
It is said that many look enviously upon the Australian economy's success in not only weathering the global financial crisis but to continue to prosper. Of course, there is no gainsaying the role that the resources sector played in providing the country with a vital economic buffer. But is everything as rosy as many seem to think, including some of our Treasury boffins?
Sunday, March 13, 2011
U.S. Economy on Steroids, Poverty Levels Equal to the 1930s / Economics / US Economy
By: Bob_Chapman
Wall Street at least temporarily relieved of the burden of having to buy Treasuries & Agency bonds, is looking at the jump in oil prices as nothing more than an irritant to their plans for a higher market. Bill Dudley of the NY Fed, a most powerful member, continues to make a vigorous defense of Federal Reserve policies. He, and a few other Fed participants, and Chairman Bernanke believe liquidity is the key for solving problems. That is not only in the realm of debt purchases, but in the relief it brings to Wall Street and banking. It relieves them of the responsibility of having to make those purchases to assist the Fed.
Saturday, March 12, 2011
Inflation and Hyperinflation in the United States / Economics / Inflation
By: John_Mauldin
A Dose of Inflation
The Characteristics of Hyperinflations
The Problems of Inflation
Hyperinflation in the United States?
Bankruptcies of governments have, on the whole, done less harm to mankind than their ability to raise loans. -- R. H. Tawney, Religion and the Rise of Capitalism, 1926
By a continuing process of inflation, government can confiscate, secretly and unobserved, an important part of the wealth of their citizens. -- John Maynard Keynes, Economic Consequences of Peace
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Friday, March 11, 2011
Higher Crude Oil Prices Pouring Profits into Venezuela's Economy / Economics / Emerging Markets
By: Money_Morning
Kerri Shannon writes:
Libya turmoil continued this week as Col. Moammar Gadhafi's troops tried to chase rebel forces out of cities housing key oil facilities. The pro-government regime wants to regain cities with oil operations, many of which rebels took over in the first days of fighting.
Attacks Wednesday also destroyed one oil facility's diesel oil storage tank and pipeline. Shukri Ghanem, Libya's de facto oil minister and the chairman of Libya's National Oil Corp., said no major oil installations were damaged in the explosion, but the fighting has disrupted a number of oil and natural gas facilities around the country.
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Friday, March 11, 2011
U.S. Jobless Claims, Too Soon to Question if Decline Represents Reversal of Trend / Economics / Unemployment
By: Asha_Bangalore
Initial jobless claims rose 26,000 to 397,000 during the week ended March 5. The Labor Department noted that President's Day holiday in the prior week could have moved claims into the latest weekly count. The four-week moving average of initial jobless claims offers an alternative in the event of temporary distortions.Read full article... Read full article...
Friday, March 11, 2011
U.S. Trade Deficit Widens in January / Economics / US Economy
By: Asha_Bangalore
The trade deficit of the U.S. economy widened to $46.3 billion in January from $40.3 billion in the prior month. Exports of goods and services advanced 2.7% in January, while imports of goods and services also grew 5.2%. Imports of both petroleum (+3.7%) and non-petroleum products (+4.2%) items rose in January. If this trend continues in February and March, the trade deficit would cutback real GDP growth noticeably.
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Friday, March 11, 2011
U.S. Households Net Worth Advances, Outstanding Debt Declines / Economics / US Economy
By: Asha_Bangalore
Household net worth rose to $56.82 trillion in the fourth quarter of 2010, a 3.9% increase from the third quarter (or $2.1 trillion increase). Net worth of household has risen 16.6% from the first quarter of 2009 (the recent low, see Chart 1). Households lost 26% of their net worth between the second quarter of 2007 and first quarter of 2009, the largest loss in the post-war period. In the fourth quarter, households experienced gains in equity holdings that more than offset the loss from real estate.
Friday, March 11, 2011
Free Trade Theory Known to be Wrong—Since 1817! / Economics / Economic Theory
By: Ian_Fletcher
The economic argument for free trade is ultimately based on the theory of comparative advantage, invented by David Ricardo in 1817. Ricardo was a London stockbroker, self-made millionaire, and Member of Parliament who became a self-taught economist.
Thursday, March 10, 2011
Signs of Impending Doom for Global Economy 2011 / Economics / Global Economy
By: Chris_Kitze
End of the American Dream writes: If you are not aware of how rapidly the global economic situation is unraveling you need to snap out of it and start paying attention. The world economy was relatively stable in 2010, but here in 2011 things are deteriorating very quickly. Right now there is major civil unrest in at least a dozen different nations in Africa and the Middle East. The civil war going on in Libya has sent the price of oil skyrocketing and the protests that are scheduled to begin in Saudi Arabia later this month could send oil prices even higher.
Wednesday, March 09, 2011
Global Currency War Flash Points in the Middle East 'Age of Rage' / Economics / Middle East
By: Gordon_T_Long
The conflict in North Africa was a predictable outcome of the US Monetary Policy of Quantitative Easing. It is not plausible that the US Federal Reserve, as the manager of the world's Reserve Currency, did not fully recognize the global ramifications of such monetary inflation actions well in advance. Quantitative Easing like the Intercontinental Ballistic Missiles (ICBM) of the cold war era has had the same devastating pre-emptive impact on Libya.
Tuesday, March 08, 2011
The Crude Oil Economic Booby Trap / Economics / US Economy
By: Mike_Whitney
Rising oil prices threaten to derail the recovery. Oil at $106 per barrel (Monday's price) is not a problem, but oil at $160 is. With fighting increasing in Libya and social unrest spreading across the Middle East, no one knows where prices will settle. That leaves Fed chairman Ben Bernanke with a tough decision. Should he call off QE2 prematurely and let the stock market drift sideways or go-til-June and hope for the best? If the Fed tightens too early, deflationary pressures will reemerge further straining bank balance sheets and consumer spending. Housing prices will fall sharply and foreclosures will mushroom. But if Bernanke holds-firm with his zero rates and bond buying program--especially when the ECB is raising rates--he could trigger a bond market rout and send the dollar into freefall.
Tuesday, March 08, 2011
Debt, Inflation and Global Economy Systemic Risks, The ZIRP Trap / Economics / Global Economy
By: John_Mauldin
I get a lot of client letters from various managers and funds, as you might imagine. I read more than I should. But one that shows up every quarter or so makes me stop what I am doing and sit down and read. It is the quarterly letter from Hayman Advisors, based here in Dallas. They are macro guys (which I guess is part of the magnetic attraction for me), and they really put some thought into their craft and have some of the best sources anywhere. So today we take a look at their latest letter, where they cover a wide variety of topics, with cutting-edge analysis and sharp insight. I really like these guys, and suggest you take the time to read the entire letter.#
Tuesday, March 08, 2011
U.S. Consumer Borrowing Posts Fourth Monthly Gain / Economics / Economic Recovery
By: Asha_Bangalore
Consumer borrowing advanced at an annual rate of 2.5% in January, the fourth consecutive monthly increase after posting declines during each month in the October 2008 - August 2010 and holding steady in September 2010. Of the two main components of consumer credit, revolving credit (credit card borrowing) fell 6.4% in January but non-revolving credit (borrowing for cars, vacations, durable goods, and other purposes) advanced at an annual rate of 6.9% (see Chart 4).
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Monday, March 07, 2011
How Wisconsin Can Turn Economic Austerity into Prosperity / Economics / Economic Austerity
By: Ellen_Brown
As states struggle to meet their budgets, public pensions are on the chopping block; but they needn’t be. States can keep their pension funds intact and leverage them into many times that sum in loans, just as Wall Street banks do. They can do this by forming their own banks, following the lead of North Dakota, the only state either to have its own bank or to have a major budget surplus.
Monday, March 07, 2011
Hidden Inflation: Rising Prices Are Hitting Consumers Harder Than the Fed Will Admit / Economics / Inflation
By: Money_Morning
Kerri Shannon writes: Any U.S. consumer that goes to the grocery store or the gas station on a regular basis knows that prices are rising.
Unfortunately, those rising prices are set to soar even higher - and their effects on consumers will continue to be ignored by the U.S. Federal Reserve.
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