Analysis Topic: Economic Trends Analysis
The analysis published under this topic are as follows.
Sunday, August 22, 2010
This Is Why There Are No Jobs in America / Economics / Employment
By: DailyWealth
Porter Stansberry writes: I'd like to make you a business offer.
Seriously. This is a real offer. In fact, you really can't turn me down, as you'll come to understand in a moment...
Saturday, August 21, 2010
Obama's Economic Team Frozen in the Headlights, U.S. Economy is in Big Trouble / Economics / Great Depression II
By: Mike_Whitney
The personal savings rate has risen to 6.4%. When households save, consumer spending declines and GDP shrinks. The reduction in economic activity can have serious knock-on effects. It can lead to more layoffs as investment sputters as aggregate demand flags. If the downturn persists, asset prices and wages fall leading to tighter credit, deflation and a deepening slump. The good news is that the problem can be fixed.
Saturday, August 21, 2010
The Myth of the Engineered Recession / Economics / Recession 2008 - 2010
By: Gary_North
There are lots of myths out there, but of all the recent financial myths that afflict the conservative movement, this one is the most preposterous: "The bankers engineered the 2008 financial crisis."
On first glance, the theory seems nutty. How did these people benefit from enormous financial losses? But when you examine it in depth, it seems even more nutty.
Friday, August 20, 2010
The Economic Recovery Was An Illusion – And That’s A Good Thing! / Economics / Recession 2008 - 2010
By: Sy_Harding
In July, I wrote an article titled ‘Is The Recovery An Illusion?’ With the additional evidence that has come in since there really is no doubt about it.
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Friday, August 20, 2010
Germany’s Export Reliant Economic Recovery Edges Out European Neighbors / Economics / Euro-Zone
By: Money_Morning
Kerri Shannon writes:
By relying on exports and not promoting domestic demand, Germany is creating a lopsided recovery that is hurting retailers and foreign exporters.
While Germany's exports continue to surge, its consumers are refusing to spend. The government has failed to raise wages or encourage consumption and says it has few plans to do so.
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Friday, August 20, 2010
Small Businesses are Not Hiring - Why Should They? / Economics / Employment
By: Mike_Shedlock
In response to Creating Jobs Carries a Punishing Price, an article about Mr. Fleischer, president of Bogen Communications Inc. and why he is not hiring, I received an interesting email from "David" a reader who disagrees with Mr. Fleischer's stated reasons for not hiring.
Thursday, August 19, 2010
Economists Are Behind the Curve of Economic Realities! / Economics / Economic Theory
By: Sy_Harding
Concerns about the U.S. economy began as a ripple when economic growth unexpectedly began slowing in the 2nd quarter. The continuing waves of negative economic reports in May, June, July, and now into August have had economists scrambling to revise their growth forecasts downward. But they have not been quick enough to keep up with the downward pace of the reports.
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Thursday, August 19, 2010
U.S. Weekly Unemployment Claims Hit 500,000 Bearing Every Economist's Forecast / Economics / US Economy
By: Mike_Shedlock
Once again the pile of overoptimistic economist estimates continues to mount. Today, weekly unemployment claims hit 500,000 exceeding every forecast. This is (at minimum) the 4th time since March every economist was overly optimistic regarding unemployment claims. Nicely done guys.
Thursday, August 19, 2010
Protection From a Double-Dip Economic Recession Going Global / Economics / Double Dip Recession
By: Money_Morning
Jason Simpkins writes:
The last time the U.S. economy suffered through a double-dip recession, this country was struggling to overcome the fallout from an Arab oil embargo, Vietnam War-era deficits, and an inflationary spiral that just wouldn't let go.
That 1981-82 double-dip downturn - the result of an economic "shock treatment" aimed at curing those ills - consisted of two recessions that were separated by a single quarter of growth.
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Thursday, August 19, 2010
How to Protect Your Wealth From U.S. Debt Economic Stagnation Japan Style / Economics / US Economy
By: Money_Morning
Martin Hutchinson writes:
Grim unemployment figures, growing worries about crushing debt loads and the apparent absence of any inflation are causing many investors to ask a tough question: Is the U.S. economy catching the "Japan disease," the dreaded and dreadful malaise that has left the onetime Asian powerhouse in a stagnant state since 1990?
Thursday, August 19, 2010
Tea, Tramadol and Today's Great Depression / Economics / Inflation
By: Adrian_Ash
"Even at home there is generally a cup of tea going – a 'nice cup of tea' – and Father, who has been out of work since 1929, is temporarily happy because he has a sure tip for the Cesarewitch..."
- George Orwell, The Road to Wigan Pier (London, 1936)
Thursday, August 19, 2010
Prepare in August for Hyperinflationary Holidays / Economics / HyperInflation
By: Dr_Jeff_Lewis
Ben Bernanke and the rest of the Federal Reserve are priming the pump for what could by a hyper-inflationary Christmas. While the Fed continues to build a pile of kindling, the spark could very well be this holiday shopping season.
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Thursday, August 19, 2010
U.S. Heading for Currency Destruction Debt Default Great Depression / Economics / US Debt
By: The_Gold_Report
As the world sinks deeper into what he calls the Greater Depression, Casey Research Chairman Doug Casey sees default on the U.S. national debt as inevitable—albeit probably in the guise of currency destruction. He anticipates further contraction in real estate, particularly on the commercial front. As long as stocks remain overpriced, he'll shy away from equities—except perhaps in favored sectors such as gold. In fact, in this exclusive interview with The Gold Report, Doug posits that gold juniors might "go up by an order of magnitude or more, even while most other stocks are going down."
Wednesday, August 18, 2010
Affording the Unemployed / Economics / Economic Theory
By: J_M_Finegold_Catalan
While the unemployment rate continues to hover between 9 and 10 percent, the average amount of time wage earners remain unemployed has skyrocketed to previously unrecorded levels.[1] Keynesians fear that a weak fiscal and monetary response will allow the presently cyclically unemployed to become so permanently.[2] UC Berkeley professor Bradford DeLong puts it briefly, "Long-term unemployment has a way of turning into structural unemployment."[3]
Wednesday, August 18, 2010
18 Signs That America Is Rotting Right In Front Of Our Eyes / Economics / US Economy
By: Pravda
Sometimes it isn't necessary to quote facts and figures about government debt, unemployment and the trade deficit in order to convey how badly America is decaying. The truth is that millions of Americans can watch America rotting right in front of their eyes by stepping out on their front porches. Record numbers of homes have been foreclosed on and in some of the most run down cities as many as a third of all houses have been abandoned.
Wednesday, August 18, 2010
U.S. Bank Credit Increases a Healthy 8.3%, But One Month Does Not Make a Trend / Economics / US Economy
By: Paul_L_Kasriel
In July, for only the second time in the past 21 months, U.S. commercial bank total credit (loans and securities) increased (see Chart 1). And it was a healthy increase at 8.3% annualized. Obviously, we do not know whether this is the beginning of an upward trend in bank credit. But if it is, then we feel a lot more confident about our 2011 real GDP forecast, which has the economy's growth rate picking up. The primary assumption underlying our forecast of faster real GDP growth in 2011 is a resumption in the growth of bank credit.
Wednesday, August 18, 2010
Welcome to the Muddle Ages of the U.S. Economic Recovery / Economics / Economic Recovery
By: EconGrapher
Before diving into the analysis, a theme occurred to me the other day; more and more the economic data from the US is looking confused. There are some parts of the economy that are showing some relatively promising signs e.g. manufacturing, but then there are other parts (e.g. consumers, housing, etc) which say - "you know, this recovery... it's not that great, things are still hard!" And thus we are at the muddle ages of the post-great-recession recovery. And so, I was just looking at the US total bank assets statistics, and there were a few noteworthy standouts in the data:
Wednesday, August 18, 2010
Peter Schiff Says Dr. Keynes Killed the Patient / Economics / Economic Theory
By: Peter_Schiff
A morbidly obese gentleman labored into Dr. Hayek's office suffering from severe chest pain. The patient also complained that he was unable to consume his usual 10,000 calorie-per-day diet; in fact, he was feeling so sick that he could barely scarf down 9,000 calories. He plead that his love for food remained as strong as ever, but his body just wasn't keeping up with his demands.
Tuesday, August 17, 2010
UK Inflation CPI 3.1%, RPI 4.8% for July, Bank of England Forecast Was for CPI 1.7% / Economics / Inflation
By: Nadeem_Walayat
UK inflation for July 2010 dipped marginally from CPI 3.2% to 3.1%, remaining stubbornly above the Bank of England's upper limit of 3% and target of 2%, despite virtually 8 months of mantra from the Governor, Mervyn King that high inflation was just temporary and imminently expected to fall to below the 2% target. The more recognised RPI measure fell from 5% to 4.8% and which compares against average pay rises of 2% which illustrates the squeeze that ordinary people are on especially as taxes rise and state services are cut. The BoE governor wrote yet another full of excuses letter to the Chancellor, George Osbourne as to why the Bank of England is failing in its primary objective of controlling inflation.
Tuesday, August 17, 2010
Recession Batters State Budgets Which Could Slow Economic Recovery / Economics / US Economy
By: John_Mauldin
There were a lot of questions last week when I wrote about public pensions. So for this week’s Outside the Box, I offer you some more information about how bad the state deficit situation is, and for your specific state. States are having to cut more than 1% of national GDP in fiscal 2011, as federal stimulus money is slowly drying up. And that is just states. Local municipalities and schools have a similar problem. And then add on the possibility of the Bush tax cuts going away and that is a very serious situation. It is why I am so concerned and vocal about the need for the Bush tax cuts to be extended for at least one year until the economy is growing above stall speed. The headwinds from cities and states are severe, as you can see.