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Market Oracle FREE Newsletter

Analysis Topic: Economic Trends Analysis

The analysis published under this topic are as follows.

Economics

Friday, May 03, 2019

Universal Basic Income Would Be a Social and Economic Disaster / Economics / Economic Theory

By: Jared_Dillian

I am never going to retire. Oh sure, I say that now, but what about when I am 80? No. I will never stop working.

Every morning, I get out of bed when the alarm goes off, take a shower, put on dress clothes (a suit, usually), and drive 35 minutes to work in an office that I rent in an office building.

I write newsletters. I can just as easily do that on the couch, in a pair of gym shorts, with a cup of coffee. Why spend over an hour a day commuting and dealing with all the brain damage of putting on a suit and going to work?

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Economics

Friday, May 03, 2019

UK Real Unemployment Rate is 5.5 million - Britains Benefits Culture / Economics / Unemployment

By: Nadeem_Walayat

This analysis directly continues on from (UK Demographics Crisis Silver Lining of Sorts) which is part of a series that aims to conclude in a new multi-year trend forecast for UK house prices. But first a recap of my analysis to date that so far suggests to ignore mainstream press hysteria that warns of impending doom for Britains housing market, encouraged no less than the Government and Bank of England which warn to expect a 30% CRASH in UK house prices should the UK LEAVE the EU without a deal.

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Economics

Friday, May 03, 2019

Toward Japan’s Economic End-Game / Economics / Japan Economy

By: Dan_Steinbock

As the spotlight has been on Japan's new Emperor Naruhito, the economy is coping with half a decade of Abenomics, monetary injections, huge debt – and a proposed sales tax that could make things a lot worse by the fall.

Ever since Shinzo Abe started his second stint as Prime Minister, Japan has focused on positive economic signals, which has sparked futile hopes, including a bad sales tax proposition.

Japanese officials vow to stick to the planned tax hike in October (it has been delayed twice), barring a big economic shock. With the 2019 budget, Abe hopes to offset adverse impact of the sales tax by returning much of the extra revenue to consumers via $18 billion of offsetting measures, instead of faster debt-reduction.

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Economics

Tuesday, April 30, 2019

U.S. GDP Accelerates, while Socialists Triumph in Spain. Will Gold also Win? / Economics / US Economy

By: Arkadiusz_Sieron

The US economic growth in the Q1 2019 positively surprised. Indeed, on the upside. The doubting Thomasses were proven wrong. And The Socialist Party just won the snap elections in Spain. Is the left back in vogue in the Eurozone? But what does it all mean for the gold market?

US GDP Surprises on the Upside

On Friday, the government said that the US GDP expanded at a 3.2 percent annual pace in the first three months of 2019. What is important is that the number significantly surpassed the forecasts. For example, the economists polled by MarketWatch had expected a 2.3 percent increase. The fears of the slowdown were overblown, as we have been warning for a long time.
Actually, the American economy accelerated in the first three months of 2019, as the economy grew at a 2.2 percent in Q4 2018, as one can see in the chart below.

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Economics

Tuesday, April 30, 2019

This Indicator Signals the US Economy Is Slowing Down / Economics / US Economy

By: Patrick_Watson

It’s not a good sign for your health if your blood pressure drops too low. Similarly, the economy is probably sick when its circulatory system slows down.

You don’t need a blood pressure gauge to know it either. Just count how many trucks you see on the highway.

Under normal conditions, busy highways and seaports mean a growing economy. Businesses are producing more stuff finding its way to consumers.

That was happening since we emerged from the Great Recession in 2009, albeit slower than in the past cycles.
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Economics

Tuesday, April 30, 2019

When Overvalued and Dangerous Markets Meet Stagflation / Economics / Stagflation

By: Michael_Pento

To put into perspective how overvalued and dangerous the US market has become; I often cite the figure of total market cap to GDP—currently 145% of the economy. How high is 145% of GDP? It is a full 30% higher than it was before the start of the Great Recession. The twin sister to this metric is the Household Net Worth to GDP Ratio. Household net worth as a percent of GDP is calculated by dividing the current bubbles in home prices and equities by the underlying economy, which has been artificially inflated by interest rates that have been pushed into the sub-basement of history. This metric is now an incredible 535% of GDP, which is a record high and 19% higher than the NASDAQ bubble of 2000. To put that figure in perspective, the good folks at Daily Reckoning have calculated that the historical average is 384%.

These valuation measurements are much more accurate than Wall Street’s favorite PE ratio valuation barometer because they cannot be easily manipulated by corporate share buybacks that have been facilitated by record-low borrowing costs. And, as hinted at already, the GDP denominator of today is much more tenuous because it has become more than ever predicated on the record amount of fiscal and monetary stimulus from the government.

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Economics

Friday, April 26, 2019

The US Economy Is Reaching a Dead End / Economics / Recession 2020

By: John_Mauldin

Sooner or later, the US will enter a recessionMy best guess is it will happen sometime in 2020. I may be off (early) by a year or two, but it’s coming.

We know two things will happen.
  • Tax revenues will fall as people’s income drops.
  • Federal spending will rise as safety-net entitlement claims go up.

The result will be higher deficits.

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Economics

Thursday, April 25, 2019

If This Pattern Holds True, the US Economy Could Face the Worst Stagnation in History / Economics / Great Depression II

By: John_Mauldin

I recently made a case that the Fed’s monetary policy is turning Japanese. Let’s examine how that worked for them.

From one perspective, it has done quite well. From another, they have paid a cost.

Is it worth it? I think many Japanese, likely a big majority, would say yes.

An Economic Miracle?

The Bank of Japan has more than 140% of Japanese GDP on its balance sheet.

Its laws let it buy equities not just in Japan but all over the world and it did. Yet the currency is roughly the same value as it was when the Bank of Japan got busy with that project.

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Economics

Tuesday, April 23, 2019

Forecasting 2020s : Two Recessions, Higher Taxes, and Japan-Like Flat Markets / Economics / Recession 2020

By: John_Mauldin

I’m slowly losing confidence in the economy. 

I still think the economy is okay for now. But I also see recession odds rising considerably in 2020. Maybe it will get pushed back another year or two, but at some point, this growth phase will end.

It will be either recession or an extended flat period (even flatter than the last decade, which says a lot).  On top of that, we are headed toward a global credit crisis I’ve dubbed The Great Reset.

Let me give you the CliffsNotes version of how I think the next decade will play out.

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Economics

Friday, April 19, 2019

The Global Economy Looks Disturbingly Like Japan Before Its “Lost Decade” / Economics / Global Economy

By: John_Mauldin

After World War II, Japan experienced rapid growth as the US and others helped rebuild its economy.  This led to a roaring expansion that culminated in the 1980s Japanese asset bubble.

It popped in the early 1990s bringing what came to be called the “Lost Decade.” It was really more than a decade, as the early 2000s brought only mild recovery.

GDP shrank, wages fell, and asset prices dropped or went sideways at best. Japan is still grappling with it today.

Now the rest of the world is approaching a period that may be an equivalent of Japan’s “Lost Decade.” It won’t be the end of the world, but it might be more painful than in Japan.  

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Economics

Tuesday, April 16, 2019

Even the President is Terrified of the Dreaded “D” Word Deflation / Economics / Deflation

By: Graham_Summers

The following tweet tells you everything you need to know about the state of the US financial system today…

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Economics

Sunday, April 14, 2019

From US-Sino Talks to New Trade Wars, Weakening Global Economic Prospects / Economics / Protectionism

By: Dan_Steinbock

Recently, IMF cut global growth forecasts. As US-Sino trade talks will give way to next trade wars, new tariff wars will not resolve US deficits but will further impair global economic prospects.

Ever since the US-Sino trade talks began almost four months ago, the United States has pushed for a broad commitment focusing on China’s economic practices, including participation of U.S. firms in certain industries and protection of U.S. intellectual property rights (IPRs).

In a recent CNBC interview, Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin claimed that the countries had “pretty much agreed” on an enforcement mechanism for a trade deal. After his meeting with the Chinese delegation last week, President Trump stated that negotiators may need four more weeks to package the deal.

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Economics

Friday, April 12, 2019

America Has a Monopoly Problem / Economics / Economic Theory

By: John_Mauldin

Without realizing it, we’ve become a nation of monopolies. A large and growing part of our economy is “owned” by a handful of companies that face little competition.

They have no incentive to deliver better products or to get more efficient. They simply rake in cash from people who have no choice but to hand it over.

This would be impossible if we had true capitalism.

Even if we admit some businesses are natural monopolies, most aren’t. Most of them found some non-capitalistic flaw to exploit.
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Economics

Tuesday, April 09, 2019

A Recession is Coming… But Not Just Yet / Economics / Recession 2019

By: Harry_Dent

In the last week, there have been a slew of articles warning that we’re on the verge of a recession.

The most prominent is talk about the yield curve – the 10-year versus the three-month Treasurys – finally inverting. That has led every recession since 1955, and only gave one false signal in the 1960s.

I agree. This is something to worry about. But, this signal typically appears about a year before any recession hits. That means stocks could run up another six to nine months before they react. That’s all we need for my Dark Window blow-off rally scenario.

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Economics

Friday, April 05, 2019

A Big Advantage: Knowing Where You Are In The Economic Cycle / Economics / Recession 2019

By: John_Mauldin

By Eric Basmajian : Geoffrey Moore, the father of leading indicators, once said that it is a big advantage just to know where you are in the economic cycle, let alone trying to forecast where it is going.

Most investors or analysts don't have a concrete way to define where we are in the cycle and use common but silly analogies to the inning of a baseball game to identify the current standing of the economy. I have even heard some analysts describe the economic cycle as being in "extra-innings." I understand this mentality but chuckle at the framework as it has become such a consensus saying that all media pundits seem to have an answer as to the inning of the game.

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Economics

Thursday, March 28, 2019

What US Economic Fundementals and Valuations Say For Stock Market Trend 2019 / Economics / US Economy

By: Nadeem_Walayat

FUNDAMENTALS

US Economy

The US economic fundamentals are good as real GDP is rising at an annualised rate of 3.1%, up from +2,5% a year earlier. Whilst not a boom is definitely not deflationary so supportive for stock prices as the economy continues to chug along.

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Economics

Thursday, March 28, 2019

Fed Inflation Is Losing Its Intended Effect / Economics / Inflation

By: Kelsey_Williams

The chart below shows the ratio of the gold price to the monetary base for the past one hundred years. The monetary base used in the chart is calculated by the St. Louis Federal Reserve and the following definition is from their website:

“The Adjusted Monetary Base is the sum of currency (including coin) in circulation outside Federal Reserve Banks and the U.S. Treasury, plus deposits held by depository institutions at Federal Reserve Banks. These data are adjusted for the effects of changes in statutory reserve requirements on the quantity of base money held by depositories.” (source)

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Economics

Wednesday, March 27, 2019

The Fed Broke This Economic Cycle—and It’s a Game Changer for Investors / Economics / Economic Theory

By: John_Mauldin

Here’s a quote from my friend Peter Boockvar that has drawn an enormous amount of interest:“We no longer have business cycles, we have credit cycles.”

Let’s cut that small but meaty sound bite into pieces. What do we mean by “business cycle,” exactly? Well, it looks something like this.

A growing economy peaks, contracts to a trough (what we call “recession”), recovers to enter prosperity, and hits a higher peak. Then the process repeats.

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Economics

Wednesday, March 20, 2019

Asset Bubbles and the Economy Are Now One / Economics / Liquidity Bubble

By: Michael_Pento

After this latest round of a deflationary recession/depression consummates, global central banks and governments will engage in an epoch battle to re-inflate asset prices such as never before contemplated. Indeed, they are laying the framework for that assault right now.

Global central banks took interest rates to the zero percent range a decade ago and, for the most part, they remain there today. These confetti pushers printed $15 trillion dollars in order to push rates into history’s basement. Such an enterprise in counterfeiting has never been attempted before outside of a banana republic.

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Economics

Wednesday, March 20, 2019

Monetary Metals on Keynes, Inflation and Evil Itself / Economics / Inflation

By: Gary_Tanashian

Since NFTRH 543 was also known as the ‘What if… Inflation?’ report, I was attuned to the subject; and on cue here comes Keith Weiner with a knockout punch.

Keynes Was a Vicious Bastard, Report

He goes off on the evil (and I do mean evil) genius, John Maynard Keynes before moving on to his usual gold and silver supply/demand fundamental report.

He gave us the recipe for “overturning the existing basis of society.” All you have to do is “a continuing process of inflation,” which will “confiscate, secretly and unobserved, an important part of the wealth of their citizens.” This “brings windfalls, beyond their deserts and even beyond their expectations or desires” to the “profiteers, who are the object of the hatred of the bourgeoisie, whom the inflationism has impoverished, not less than of the proletariat.” Finally, this process “engages all the hidden forces of economic law on the side of destruction, and does it in a manner which not one man in a million is able to diagnose.”

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