Analysis Topic: Economic Trends Analysis
The analysis published under this topic are as follows.
Monday, April 23, 2018
US Economy Is Cooked, the Growth Cycle has Peaked / Economics / US Economy
By: Adam_Taggart
Hours ago, European Central Bank chief Mario Dragho conceded: "The growth cycle may have peaked"
Of course, those paying attention to the data already knew this. Our politicians and central planers have been peddling to us the fantasy that the global economy is strengthening, finally ready to fire on all cylinders after nearly ten years of dependence on monetary stimulus.
That just ain't so.
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Monday, April 23, 2018
Inflation, With a Shelf Life / Economics / Inflation
By: Gary_Tanashian
For the last few weeks we’ve used the conditions noted in the graphic below as a guide. Well, the ‘inflation trade’ (IT) popped last week and that included cyclical metals (as well as silver) ramming upward vs. gold and TIP rising vs. TLT & IEF.
As for credit conditions, there is little imminently raising caution flags as commercial lending and risk taking (as indicated by high yield junk bonds) continue apace, but the note still stands on the bigger picture as the credit system and money supply are gumming up with the Fed in quantitative and Fed Funds tightening mode while the velocity of money in the economy maintains a secular downtrend.
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Tuesday, April 17, 2018
Inflation Is Not Our Biggest Threat / Economics / Inflation
By: Kelsey_Williams
You wouldn’t know that by listening to current commentary on the economy.
There is a bigger threat, though. But first, there is some clarification about inflation that is necessary.
Most people infer rising prices when they hear the term inflation. That is not correct. The rising prices are the ‘effects’ of inflation. The inflation, itself, has already been created.
It is notcreated, or caused, by companies raising prices. And it is not created by ‘escalating wage demand’.
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Saturday, April 14, 2018
Shocking Chinese Economic Data Points Will Disrupt Markets / Economics / China Economy
By: Chris_Vermeulen
We, at Technical Traders Ltd., believe recent data released by China presents traders with a huge opportunity over the next 6~18 months. Recently released Chinese economic market data points to a general market disruption in regards to trade values, import/export data and loan/debt risk. As reported by Reuters and Business Insider, the continued crackdown on Shadow Banking in China, as well as recently announced trade tariffs, may be shifting the dynamics of the Chinese Dragon economy dramatically.
Monday, April 09, 2018
The Mother of All Deflations / Economics / Deflation
By: Raul_I_Meijer
Longtime and dear friend of the Automatic Earth, professor Steve Keen, wrote an article recently that everyone should read (that goes for everything Steve writes). It’s hard to select highlights, but I’ll give it a try. Steve explains where our housing markets went off the rails, what (short-sighted) interests politicians have in subverting them, and, something rarely addressed, why housing markets are unlike any other markets (the turnover of existing properties is financed with newly created money)
He then suggests some measures that might counter this subversion, with a twang of It’s a Wonderful Life nostalgia thrown in. That nostalgia, which will be seen by many as outdated and a grave mistake in these ‘modern times’, instead makes a lot of sense. We might even say it’s the only way to get back on our feet. It resides in the idea that money-circulating building societies, rather than money-creating banks should be in charge of the housing market.
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Wednesday, April 04, 2018
China/Asia Economic Implosion on the Horizon? - Part V / Economics / China Economy
By: Chris_Vermeulen
As we, the research team at www.TheTechnicalTraders.com, continue to deliver sections of this multiple part global market research report centered around China and Asia as a catalyst for an impending global market/debt collapse, we want to make sure our readers understand this process will likely play out over many months into the future. This is not something that we should concern ourselves with right away. This is not a warning that “the sky is falling and we need to run to our bunkers”. This is forward-looking research that indicates a strong possibility that China and Asia, along with many other nations in this region, may experience a credit/debt market contraction that could lead to another global credit crisis and we need to be aware of it and plan to profit from it. (Part I, Part II, Part III, Part IV)
Saturday, March 31, 2018
Warning Economic Implosion on the Horizon / Economics / Economic Depression
By: Chris_Vermeulen
Our previous three segments of this research report detailed not only the history of the Chinese economic activity but also detailed some of the capital flow issues that have been active in presenting this unique instance in time as it relates to a potential implosion of economic activity in China and most of Asia. We, the research team at Technical Traders Ltd., have attempted to clearly illustrate all of the components and facets that have existed to make up a very unique scenario where traders may be able to experience a once or twice in a lifetime trade that could result in massive returns.
Within our previous posts, we attempted to disclose what we believe to be one of the most critical and potentially damaging economic events in our future. We urge all readers to review (Part I, Part II, Part III) of this multi-part research report to bring everyone up to speed with our thinking. Please take a moment to our earlier posts before continuing.
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Saturday, March 31, 2018
Warning China / Asia Economic Implosion on the Horizon? / Economics / China Economy
By: Chris_Vermeulen
Thank you for following our multi-part research (Part I, Part II) into the possibility of a China/Asia market collapse and our hypothetical analysis of what that event might consist of and how it may play out. So far, we have discussed the Chinese housing market rotation as well as the recent trends within the past 7+ years, expansion and foreign investments made by many Chinese and successful Asian investors. All of this research raises some interesting questions for us to consider.
Wednesday, March 28, 2018
China/Asia Economic Crash Is Starting / Economics / China Economy
By: Chris_Vermeulen
In our previous article regarding the potential China/Asia Economic Implosion, we illustrated how the property market cycles in China (Beijing) are in the early stages of a potentially topping and a massive drop in value.
Today, we are going to try to expand on this analysis a bit further by illustrating how the US and other global established economies may have inadvertently setup certain emerging markets for another global crisis event. Our research team at Technical Traders Ltd. has developed a unique set of skills in sourcing and evaluating current market events and predictive price modeling systems that allow us to attempt to determine future events with relative certainty. Within this post, we will attempt to provide further evidence and supporting data as it relates to our belief that we are in a very late stage economic expansion cycle and about to enter a very early stage economic contraction cycle. As we continue to disclose our research and findings within this multi-part article, we will close this research out by explaining how and why we believe smart investors will be able to create massive opportunities over the next 12 to 48 months from our research.
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Wednesday, March 28, 2018
China/Asia Economic Implosion on the Horizon? / Economics / China Economy
By: Chris_Vermeulen
Recent news of the US enacting $60 billion in economic tariffs on China as well as reactionary tactics from China have everyone spooked. The US stock markets and global markets tanked last week as this news hit the wires. At www.TheTechnicalTraders.com, we have been warning of a massive upside move in precious metals as well as global market concerns for the past 12+ months. Our recent research shows just how fragile the global markets are to external factors as well as strengths in the US and other established economies.
Tuesday, March 27, 2018
Critical US Economic Indication to Watch Out For / Economics / US Economy
By: Rodney_Johnson
Millennials get a bad rap. Sure, they’re the generation that grew up with participation trophies, winning prizes for completing the arduous task of showing up. And with help from their Boomer professors, they have successfully shamed institutions of higher learning, where for centuries debate was considered a search for the truth, into echo chambers of conformity.I’ve also just learned that this generation has promoted E-sports (that would be watching other people play video games) into such a big deal that the category will get its own E-sports arena in Arlington, Texas.
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Wednesday, March 21, 2018
Economic Moral Hazards of the International Criminal Court - and Philippines Withdrawal / Economics / Asian Economies
By: Dan_Steinbock
As the Philippines is withdrawing from the International Criminal Court, ICC is blaming the Duterte government. In reality, the withdrawal is still another example of the erosion of the ICC’s credibility, its failure at judicial independence and gross bias against the emerging world. In February, the ICC said it was investigating allegations that the Philippines president had committed “crimes against humanity” by facilitating extrajudicial killings and other rights abuses in the war against drugs. These charges, which have often relied on flawed data, have been pushed by two Duterte critics. Known for his coup efforts, controversial senator Antonio Trillanes has spent much time in Washington and Europe to gain support, while the obscure Jude Sabio has gained notoriety as a hit man lawyer. What's not known is who funds the two and why leading Western media companies have bought their stories with hardly any source scrutiny.
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Tuesday, March 20, 2018
Here’s What Inflation Could Look Like in 2020, Based on Past Surges / Economics / Inflation
By: GoldSilver
Jeff Clark, Rising inflation has hit the headlines, sparking some attention from journalists. What most mainstream investors don’t realize, though, is that history shows inflation can quickly get out of control, and not just in some mismanaged third-world country. Surprise spikes in inflation have occurred right here in the US—and given the massive amount of currency dilution around the world over the past decade, a jump in inflation could easily kick in again.
Friday, March 16, 2018
South Africa To Copy Zimbabwe Model To Hyperinflation‘Prosperity’ / Economics / HyperInflation
By: Jeff_Berwick
Doesn’t South Africa have the internet yet? Or, even books?
The new South African finance minister, Nhlanhla Nene, has just come out with an amazing plan to help the people! He will devalue their money into worthlessness! This always works out well.
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Thursday, March 15, 2018
This Isn’t Your Grandfather’s (1960s) Inflation Scare / Economics / Inflation
By: F_F_Wiley
“This reminds me of the late 1960s when we experimented with low rates and fiscal stimulus to keep the economy at full employment and fund the Vietnam War. Today we don’t have a recession, let alone a war. We are setting the stage for accelerating inflation, just as we did in the late ‘60s.”—Paul Tudor Jones
As soon as the GOP followed its long-promised tax cuts with damn-the-deficit spending increases (who cares about the kids, right?), you knew to be ready for the Lyndon B. Johnson reminders.
And it’s worth remembering that LBJ pushed federal spending higher, pushed his central bank chairman against the wall (figuratively and, by several accounts, also literally) and eventually pushed inflation to post–Korean War highs.
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Wednesday, March 14, 2018
China Toward Sustainable Economic Growth / Economics / China Economy
By: Dan_Steinbock
In the past, Chinese growth was too much fueled by credit. Now it is becoming more sustainable and the emphasis is shifting on living standards, poverty reduction and environmental protection.In his annual work report, Chinese Premier Li Keqiang said on Monday that China aims to expand its economy by around 6.5 percent this year, or the same as in 2017.
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Sunday, March 11, 2018
An Inflation Indicator to Watch, Part 3 / Economics / Inflation
By: F_F_Wiley
—Ben Bernanke
Ben Bernanke began his oft-cited “helicopter speech” in 2002 with a few kind words about his peers, including the excerpt above. Speaking for central bankers, he took a large share of the credit for the low inflation of the 1980s and 1990s. Central bankers had gained a “heightened understanding” of inflation, he said, and he expected the future to bring even more inflation-taming success.
Of course, Bernanke’s cohorts took a few knocks in the boom–bust cycle that followed his speech, but their reputations as masters of inflation (and deflation) only grew. Today, the picture he painted seems even more firmly planted in the public mind than it was in 2002, notwithstanding recent data showing inflation creeping higher.
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Friday, March 09, 2018
Here’s What The Trade Tariffs Really Mean / Economics / Protectionism
By: Rodney_Johnson
Every day, you plunk out cash to support your neighbors. And they support you. That’s how economies work.I buy from my local store, which employs people, and I use local services. Even when I buy from Amazon, the stuff has to get here somehow.
We also pay taxes, much of which goes to services that employ and support people in the community. In this instance, you can think of the entire nation as your community.
So, how much of your cash are you willing to give to your neighbors?
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Thursday, March 08, 2018
China Is Leading a Once-in-a-Generation Shift to Inflation / Economics / Inflation
By: John_Mauldin
By Patrick Watson : At the Strategic Investment Conference 2018, Louis Gave, co-founder and CEO of Gavekal Research, talked about “game-changing policy shifts” and massive social changes that are underway in China.
One of the most notable changes is Xi Jinping’s effort to pull the Chinese economy away from pollution-heavy industries. Cement, steel, and textile industries are under pressure—they are forced to cut back production and reduce supply.
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Wednesday, March 07, 2018
How Chinese Economic Growth Is Changing / Economics / China Economy
By: Dan_Steinbock
What many international observers continue to miss is that the deceleration of growth in China goes hand in hand with rapidly-rising living standards.In his annual work report, Chinese Premier Li Keqiang said on Monday that China aims to expand its economy by around 6.5 percent this year.
While some of the leading international media reported the new growth target factually, others portrayed it as a “slowdown” that could even undermine global growth prospects.
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