Analysis Topic: Economic Trends Analysis
The analysis published under this topic are as follows.
Wednesday, January 21, 2009
Economic Failure and Corporate Earnings Collapse / Economics / Corporate Earnings
By: Oxbury_Research
"A massive paradigm shift away from everything we have known for all our lives to something we have read about in history books, with numerous twists; history never repeats itself but many times rhymes. As we have watched the credit crisis unfold over the last 2 years most peoples' lives have been largely unaffected as residual momentum and habits built up over decades haves crested and reversed, but now the slippery slope downward is set to accelerate VISCIOSLY." -Ty Andros Read full article... Read full article...
Wednesday, January 21, 2009
Obama's $825 Billion Stimulus Against $20 Trillion Asset Price Deflation / Economics / Economic Stimulus
By: John_Browne
Smaller Stimulus Leaves Room for Restructuring - As all recovery hopes are now pinned on the efficacy of Washington's next stimulus package, President Obama has opened the bidding at $825 billion. Most Republicans see this number as too big, and many Democrats see it as too small. If the question is one purely of impact, then under these circumstances, the Democrats are probably correct.Read full article... Read full article...
Wednesday, January 21, 2009
Economic & Financial Markets Outlook 2009, Part1: Nightmare on Main Street / Economics / Recession 2008 - 2010
By: Ty_Andros
I remember growing up in Nebraska as a time of ups and downs that any child encounters growing up. Even though I was born in 1955, I was too young to be drafted into the Viet Nam war and my college years were very carefree as my parents were sending me through school to gather the tools that set the table to prosper and grow as I matured and aged. I was aware of the issues, but for the most part saw them on TV or in the news as an observer and student, safely tucked away in school and amongst friends. I am very grateful for what God has provided me to maneuver through the challenges of life. Read full article... Read full article...
Wednesday, January 21, 2009
The Collapse Of Capitalism and the Gold Safety Net / Economics / Fiat Currency
By: Darryl_R_Schoon
For Ponzi schemes to succeed, they must expand faster than the request for redemptions. If they do not, they will collapse. This is what happened to Bernard L Madoff Investment Services, the largest Ponzi scheme in history. The same is about to happen to capitalism.
Although capitalism is not a Ponzi scheme, credit-based economies, sic capitalism, and Ponzi schemes share the same fatal flaw. Both must constantly expand or they are in danger of collapse. Today, because capitalist economies are no longer expanding, but contracting, their continued contraction will lead to collapse.
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Wednesday, January 21, 2009
President Obama Faces Toughest Financial Challenges in U.S. History / Economics / Recession 2008 - 2010
By: Money_Morning
Martin Hutchinson writes: When President-elect Barack Obama gets sworn into office as the nation's 44th chief executive this afternoon (Tuesday), he inherits a country that hasn't been this badly off financially since the Great Depression.
And President Obama can anticipate considerable sleep loss, for the recession-plagued U.S. economy and the accompanying financial crisis aren't even the only challenges his administration faces.
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Tuesday, January 20, 2009
End of Secular Consumer Bull Market Signals Ghost Shopping Malls / Economics / Recession 2008 - 2010
By: James_Quinn
Ghost Malls Coming to Your Town - The illustration of Old West ghost towns is something that every American can relate to. During the great gold rush of the mid 1800's in California, Nevada, and Wyoming towns sprung up out of nowhere to support the gold mining efforts of those looking to strike it rich. General stores, bars, hotels, brothels, and jails appeared out of nowhere based on demand from delusional prospectors hoping to hit the jackpot. Thousands of malls emerged throughout suburban America in the last twenty years as delusional shoppers thought they could spend their way to prosperity and achievement. Both delusions will end in the same manner. Read full article... Read full article...
Tuesday, January 20, 2009
Is it Deflation yet, or is Hyperinflation on the way? / Economics / Inflation
By: Joseph_Toronto
Let's take a short detour to make sure we understand what inflation and deflation are. Milton Friedman, the father of the monetarist school of economics said that inflation is always and everywhere a monetary phenomenon. This is usually explained to the layman as “too much money chasing too few goods.” Read full article... Read full article...
Monday, January 19, 2009
California Is Bankrupt! / Economics / Recession 2008 - 2010
By: Mike_Shedlock
In San Diego, Mayor Jerry Sanders is seeking cuts in services, fee hikes, and water rationing. Please consider A call to share the pain in San Diego
Mayor sees cut in services, fee hikes, water rationing
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Monday, January 19, 2009
Consumer Spending, Last Bastion of U.S. Economy In Full Retreat / Economics / Recession 2008 - 2010
By: Oxbury_Research
In previous economic slowdowns, it was always consumer spending that kept the American economy afloat. Millions of Americans continued shopping at malls, buying cars, ordering gadgets through the mail and TV and otherwise putting their wallets and purses on the line. It was always the brave American consumer rushing unto the breach to beat off the demons of economic gloom and uncertainty. Read full article... Read full article...
Monday, January 19, 2009
Hyperinflation Begining in China and Will Destroy the U.S. Dollar / Economics / HyperInflation
By: Eric_deCarbonnel
The conventional wisdom on China is dead wrong. Specifically, there is a widespread belief, as expressed by Goldman Sachs, that "China will keep the yuan trading within a narrow range in 2009 due concerns about exporters." Worse still, others are even predicting that China will devalue its currency! The sheer wishful thinking is astounding! The idea that "China will keep the dollar peg to help its exporters" ranks all the way up there with "Housing prices always go up" and "You can spend your way to prosperity". Read full article... Read full article...
Saturday, January 17, 2009
Deflation? Stimulus? Deleveraging? Recession? Soft Depression? / Economics / Credit Crisis 2009
By: John_Mauldin
- The Endgame
- Employment Numbers Are Worse Than Posted
- Aye, Captain, I'm Giving Her All I've Got!
- Problem #1: Deflation
- Problem #2: Pushing on a String
- The Muddle Through Middle
Deflation? Stimulus? Deleveraging? Recession? A soft depression? A return to a bull market? With all that is going on, how does it all end up? When we get to where we are going, where will we be? In chess, the endgame refers to the stage of the game when there are few pieces left on the board. The line between middlegame and endgame is often not clear, and may occur gradually or with the quick exchange of a few pairs of pieces. The endgame, however, tends to have different characteristics from the middlegame, and the players have correspondingly different strategic concerns. And in the current economic endgame, your strategy needs to consist of more than hope for a renewed bull market.
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Saturday, January 17, 2009
Stimulus, Schmimulus- Fiscal Lifejacket or Money Down a Rathole? / Economics / Economic Stimulus
By: Mike_Whitney
There's no guarantee that Obama's stimulus package will work, but there is growing consensus that something has to be done...and fast! The economy is contracting faster than anytime since the 1930s. Unemployment is soaring, consumer spending is plummeting, and the country appears to slipping towards another Great Depression. The Federal Reserve's near-zero interest rates and massive liquidity injections haven't helped at all. That's why the focus has shifted from monetary policy to Keynesian fiscal stimulus. When businesses and consumers cut back on spending, the government has to make up for the loss in aggregate demand. That's what Obama's $775 American Recovery and Reinvestment Act is really all about. It won't fix the economy; it's just a way to minimize the shock of a hard landing. Read full article... Read full article...
Saturday, January 17, 2009
Euro-zone: Interest Rates, Inflation, the Economy / Economics / Euro-Zone
By: Victoria_Marklew
As widely expected, the European Central Bank (ECB) lopped another 50 bps off its refi rate this morning, taking it to 2.0%. Rates have now come down by 225 bps in four successive steps, including a 75 bps cut in December, as the Euro-zone economy hits the skids and inflation drops sharply.Read full article... Read full article...
Friday, January 16, 2009
Credit Where Credit is Due / Economics / Credit Crisis 2009
By: Peter_Schiff
This week, in a speech before the London School of Economics, Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke offered a perverse economic theory in his quest to gather support for never-ending Wall Street bailouts; "This disparate treatment, unappealing as it is, appears unavoidable. Our economic system is critically dependent on the free flow of credit, and the consequences for the broader economy of financial instability are thus powerful and quickly felt." In other words, credit is the lifeblood of our economy, and the continued operation of credit providers is an issue of national security.Read full article... Read full article...
Friday, January 16, 2009
Confidence is the Problem Not Simply Deflation or Inflation! / Economics / Credit Crisis 2009
By: Julian_DW_Phillips
Analysts always trust figures and rely on them completely. Next they support forecasts backed by numbers too. All of us are vulnerable to reports backed by figures from reputable firms or forecasters. But a glance back over the last 18 months shows just how far off the mark such reports were. When we look at the problems facing the globe, we factor in reports of heavy deflation unfolding, followed by unquantifiable inflation. We receive reports of economic stimulation figures that stagger the imagination, that are bound to turn the globe back to vigorous growth and quickly? Read full article... Read full article...
Friday, January 16, 2009
Worthless Trillion Dollar Paper / Economics / Fiat Currency
By: Mike_Hewitt
Recently Zimbabwe announced that it will issue a new set of notes which will include a 10 trillion, 20 trillion, 50 trillion and 100 trillion denomination. One commentator stated that these notes will be introduced to "keep pace with the hyperinflation that has caused many to abandon the country's currency."
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Friday, January 16, 2009
Saving & Spending and the Credit Crisis Solutions / Economics / Credit Crisis 2009
By: Adrian_Ash
(with no apologies whatsoever to John Maynard Keynes)
"Saving the savers is not the priority...This is surely the time to encourage people to spend, spend, spend..." - Editorial in the Financial Times , Tues 6 Jan.
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Friday, January 16, 2009
Downward Economic Spiral Driving Consumption Down / Economics / Recession 2008 - 2010
By: Oxbury_Research
Don't Forget the Economics - Jan. 14 (Bloomberg) -- Apple Inc. Chief Executive Officer Steve Jobs, who said this month that he is being treated for a nutritional ailment, will take a medical leave of absence through the end of June. The shares fell 10 percent.
Although I wish the best for Steve Jobs, I care very little about this whole Apple story. The reason I bring it up is due wholly to CNBC. They've covered this story, along with the Madoff, for a large portion of the day.
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Thursday, January 15, 2009
Global Economic Demand Collapse, Bonds Next / Economics / Recession 2008 - 2010
By: Christopher_Laird
Anyone following the economic news in recent months has to be stunned at the declining economic activity. Japan had a 16% drop in machine orders for November. US car sales down 30 to 40%. Even world car leader Toyota has sales down 20 to 30%. Worldwide car sales are way down too, anywhere from 10 to 20% depending on which area. Read full article... Read full article...
Thursday, January 15, 2009
UK Retail Sales Crash, No Vadera Green Shoots Visible / Economics / Recession 2008 - 2010
By: Nadeem_Walayat
Despite the hype of deep discounting, the retail sales figures released today by major high street retailers shows sales slumping by between 7.5% and 10% which clearly demonstrates that the long experienced shoppers to a large degree did not get caught up with sales frenzy of previous years and refused to fall for the sales gimmicks where actual real discounting was few and far between. This coupled with the economy falling of the edge of a cliff despite green shoots ramblings by
Labour's Shriti Vadera,
sets a bleak scene for retailers for the whole of 2009 as my earlier analysis pointed out that the 30% crash in sterling will lead to higher restocking costs, whilst at the same time consumers increasingly expect discounting and therefore put off purchasing for the closing down sales.Read full article... Read full article...