Analysis Topic: Economic Trends Analysis
The analysis published under this topic are as follows.
Friday, January 09, 2009
U.S. Unemployment: The Great Year-End Jobs Blowout / Economics / Recession 2008 - 2010
By: Oxbury_Research
1.1 Million Gone in Only 60 Days… In December, no less than 693,000 jobs disappeared from the private non-farm payrolls, a dramatic and disturbing increase from the 476,000 jobs lost in November. More than one million unemployed persons in two months would cripple most countries and throw them into a major depression, but even in a nation of 300 million persons this is a disturbingly large increase.Read full article... Read full article...
Thursday, January 08, 2009
Unintended Consequences of the 20th Century and Beyond / Economics / Recession 2008 - 2010
By: James_Quinn
“The law of unintended consequences is what happens when a simple system tries to regulate a complex system. The political system is simple. It operates with limited information (rational ignorance), short time horizons, low feedback, and poor and misaligned incentives. Society in contrast is a complex, evolving, high-feedback, incentive-driven system. When a simple system tries to regulate a complex system you often get unintended consequences.” Andrew Gelman Read full article... Read full article...
Thursday, January 08, 2009
Unemployment Claims Crash Multiple State Websites / Economics / Recession 2008 - 2010
By: Mike_Shedlock
As pink slips mount, so do calls to state unemployment centers. Those calls are pouring in so fast that state unemployment claim systems are overwhelmed .
Electronic unemployment filing systems have crashed in at least three states in recent days amid an unprecedented crush of thousands of newly jobless Americans seeking benefits, and other states were adjusting their systems to avoid being next.
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Thursday, January 08, 2009
Massive Jobs Contraction In Small and Medium Sized Businesses / Economics / Recession 2008 - 2010
By: Mike_Shedlock
2008 is poised to become of the worst years ever for jobs. So far it is 11 out of 11 months for job losses. December will make it a perfect 12 of 12. Furthermore, it is now looking likely that December will exceed November's grim total of 533,00 jobs lost. See Jobs Contract 11th Straight Month; Unemployment Rate Hits 6.7% for more details.
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Wednesday, January 07, 2009
Unemployment Pink Slips Mount and So Do Concerns / Economics / Recession 2008 - 2010
By: Mike_Shedlock
Increasing numbers of "Pink Slips" are weighing on the minds of consumers. Every industry, every service is affected, not just in the US, but globally. Please consider Alcoa to cut 13 pct of global work force Alcoa Inc., the world's third-largest aluminum maker, said Tuesday it will cut 13,500 jobs, or 13 percent of its work force, and slash spending and output to cope with the global economic slowdown.
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Wednesday, January 07, 2009
Families Start Saving; Does This Aggravate The Nation's Woes? / Economics / Recession 2008 - 2010
By: Mike_Shedlock
Inquiring minds are reading Hard-Hit Families Finally Start Saving, Aggravating Nation's Economic Woes . Here are some snips from the article, followed by a rebuttal.
Rick and Noreen Capp recently reduced their credit-card debt, opened a savings account and stopped taking their two children to restaurants. Jessica and Alan Muir have started buying children's clothes at steep markdowns, splitting bulk-food purchases with other families and gathering their firewood instead of buying it for $200 a cord.
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Wednesday, January 07, 2009
Great Economic Paradox of Stimulus and Bailout Packages / Economics / Credit Crisis Bailouts
By: John_Mauldin
There is an ongoing debate on the current nature of the economic environment and what should the response be by government. Today's Outside the Box by Paul McCulley takes up one view, arguing that we need a federal response and stimulus package to protect the overall economy and save capitalism from itself. Tomorrow, I am going to send yet another view arguing that by doing so we are hurting the prudent investor and businesses that did not over-leverage and behaved responsibly. Both are important to understand. And as I will argue on Friday in my 2009 Forecast Issue, both are right. And that is one of the great economic paradoxes that we are faced with today. Navigating through this period is particularly challenging, but I think it is critical that you understand what Paul says today and what Bennet Sedacca will say tomorrow. Understanding what is going to happen, whether or not we agree with the philosophy behind it should be our goal, as it will make us better able to respond with our own portfolio and business decisions.Read full article... Read full article...
Tuesday, January 06, 2009
Depression 2009 The Largest Train Wreck in Economic History / Economics / Great Depression II
By: Darryl_R_Schoon
Change is a constant whether perceived or not; but only when we see it do we believe it has occurred. Then, it is too late.
The phrase, speculative bubble, is used to describe the financial tumescence that characterizes the often manic unfounded rise of asset values. The phrase, however, is inadequate for it fails to convey the destructive aftermath that follows; for such purposes, train wreck, is a better description. In 2009, the largest train wreck in economic history is about to occur.
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Monday, January 05, 2009
Fed's Supports "Experimental Approaches" to Prevent Deflation / Economics / Deflation
By: Mike_Shedlock
Nearly everyone is hopping on the Keynesian bandwagon as the urge to try something, anything, to halt this economic slide is simply overpowering.Please consider Fed's Yellen Supports ‘Substantial' Economic Stimulus . The U.S. economy faces a “serious risk” of stagnating for an extended period of time and “it's worth pulling out all the stops” on fiscal stimulus, said Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco President Janet Yellen.
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Sunday, January 04, 2009
Deep Global Economic GDP Contraction During 2009 / Economics / Recession 2008 - 2010
By: Prieur_du_Plessis
Financial Times: GMAC gets $6 billion injection from US Treasury
“The US Treasury department late on Monday unveiled up to $6 billion in aid for GMAC, the financial services group which is critical to part-owner General Motors‘ turnaround.
“The Treasury said in a statement it would buy $5 billion in senior preferred equity with an 8% dividend from GMAC, characterizing the investment as part of ‘a broader program to assist the domestic automotive industry in becoming financially viable'.
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Friday, January 02, 2009
United States a Banana Republic? / Economics / US Economy
By: Michael_Pento
Well, agriculturally speaking the answer is no: the United States has minimal banana production and the four leading exporters of the fruit are all located south of the Tropic of Cancer. Sadly, however, once you “peel” away the façade, the U.S. has recently embraced economic policies that could soon lead us to carrying the moniker of “banana republic.” Hanlon, being the optimist that he is, gets a little queasy when I use such phrases, but since respectable figures such as Steve Forbes and Larry Kudlow have even raised the question lately, he'll hold his nose and indulge me here!Read full article... Read full article...
Friday, January 02, 2009
Bailouts Breeding Something for Nothing Economic Policy / Economics / Credit Crisis Bailouts
By: Mike_Shedlock
How "Something For Nothing" Ideas Become Policy - Leaders all over the world are now in an Undeniable Shift to Keynes even though every such attempt in history has failed. Please consider the madness:
The sudden resurgence of Keynesian policy is a stunning reversal of the orthodoxy of the past several decades, which held that efforts to use fiscal policy to manage the economy and mitigate downturns were doomed to failure. Now only Germany remains publicly sceptical that fiscal stimulus will work.
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Friday, January 02, 2009
False Deflation Diagnosis and Gold Bullish Crossover Signal / Economics / Inflation
By: Jim_Willie_CB
One of the most bothersome questions from 2005 to 2007 used to be whether the Untied States would ultimately submit to inflation or deflation. This is actually the wrong question. Many analysts in my view are incorrect in their conclusion that the US suffers from a powerful deflation episode, since they endorse the wrong definition, confuse effect with cause (as usual), do not properly monitor the money flow, and then draw improper conclusions from prices. They suffer from a type of Keynesian Tunnel Vision. They are confused, and fail to adapt certain key measures after the financial sector highjacked the entire national system in the last two decades. Read full article... Read full article...
Friday, January 02, 2009
U.S. CPI Inflation Turning Negative, Deflation? / Economics / Inflation
By: Mike_Shedlock
" Owners' Equivalent Rent " (OER) is the largest component in the government measure of the Consumer Price Index (CPI). OER is a process in which the BEA estimates what it would cost if owners were to rent the homes they own from themselves. I do not believe this to be a valid pricing barometer.By ignoring housing prices, CPI massively understated inflation for years. The CPI is massively overstating inflation now.
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Tuesday, December 30, 2008
UK CPI Inflation, RPI Deflation Forecast 2009 / Economics / UK Economy
By: Nadeem_Walayat
UK inflation for November as measured by the CPI continued its sharp decline, falling by 0.4% to 4.1% from the peak of 5.2% for Septembers data. The Bank of England would have been aware of the sharp fall in Octobers inflation at the earlier November MPC meeting that saw an near unprecedented panic interest rate cut of 1.5%, followed by a further 1% cut in December that has taken UK interest rates sharply lower from a peak of 5% in early October to stand at just 2% today. The interest rate cuts have been accompanied by BOE statements that UK economy is expected to contract by 2% GDP during 2009, that puts the UK on target to experience a worse recession than that of the early 1990's. However as my earlier analysis suggested that the UK could experience a decline of as much as 3% for 2009 which would make this recession just as bad if not worse than that of the early 1980's which wiped out much of Britain's manufacturing base. Read full article... Read full article...
Tuesday, December 30, 2008
China Imports Crash by 17.9% in November / Economics / China Economy
By: Eric_deCarbonnel
I realized today that if demand for goods from developed nations like US is truly falling faster than demand for goods from emerging markets, then the best place to verify this trend would be to look at what's happening with China's imports. With this in mind, I looked up this Herald Tribune report about an unexpected drop in China's imports and exports . Read full article... Read full article...
Monday, December 29, 2008
U.S. Federal Budget Deficit to Exceed $1 trillion in 2009 / Economics / US Debt
By: Hans_Wagner
Investors trying to beat the market and learning to invest need to consider the impact of the large budget deficits now being considered by the U.S. government. The incoming administration and the new congress intend to spend a lot of taxpayer money to stimulate the economy and fund their programs. This will drive up the already high U.S. deficit now over $10 trillion, or more than $33,000 for each man, women and child in the U.S. So will the contemplated deficit spending do the job or just increase the debt of everyone? Read full article... Read full article...
Monday, December 29, 2008
There's No Pain-Free Cure for Recession / Economics / Recession 2008 - 2010
By: Peter_Schiff
Belt-tightening is required by all, including government. The following are excerpts from my article that ran in the Wall Street Journal on the 27th of December. The piece considers why unlimited government activism to fight the intensifying recession is so universally appealing.Read full article... Read full article...
Monday, December 29, 2008
Great Depression 2009 Similarities to 1930's / Economics / Economic Depression
By: Money_and_Markets
Martin Weiss writes: I have just received a series of urgent questions about the massive crisis swirling all around us. So to help you prepare for 2009, I am going to give you my best answers right here and now. First, though, an important reminder: December 31 — this coming Wednesday — will be your last chance to sign up for Jack's new landmark recommendations aiming for high double-digit returns early in the new year. Plus, it's the last day you can save $295 before a price increase that goes into effect on the dawn of January 1. Read full article... Read full article...
Monday, December 29, 2008
Krugman Still Wrong on the Economy / Economics / Economic Theory
By: Mike_Shedlock
Krugman seems particularly proud of a piece he wrote a decade ago. His new remake, Hangover Theorists , is as wrong now as it was then. Let's take a look.
The hangover theory , which I wrote about a decade ago, is still out there. The basic idea is that a recession, even a depression, is somehow a necessary thing, part of the process of “adapting the structure of production.” We have to get those people who were pounding nails in Nevada into other places and occupation, which is why unemployment has to be high in the housing bubble states for a while.
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