Analysis Topic: Economic Trends Analysis
The analysis published under this topic are as follows.
Friday, September 19, 2008
Potential Economic Fallout From Credit Crisis / Economics / Credit Crisis 2008
By: Joseph_Brusuelas
The events of the past seven days have altered the shape of the market and will impact the economy going forward. The current financial crisis reflects the failure of firms to deleverage in an acceptable period of time. The inability or unwillingness to accept the terms of re-capitalization offered troubled institutions has set in motion the financial train wreck of which we all bear witness. While growth over the past year has exceeded the very low expectations set by the market, the risk to economic output over the remainder of the year is to the downside. Read full article... Read full article...
Friday, September 19, 2008
United States Economy Stares Into the Abyss- Debt, Velocity of Money and Ethics / Economics / US Debt
By: Brian_Bloom
The idea that the US Government can “bail out” those whose financial failure seems likely to trigger an implosion of the derivatives market needs to be seen in light of two factors:
• Debt. Historically, as debt levels have grown, this has given rise to inflation.
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Thursday, September 18, 2008
UK Retail Sales Rise 1.2%, Real Retail Sales Fall 1.3% / Economics / UK Economy
By: Nadeem_Walayat
The official monthly retail sales data again demonstrated the inbuilt trend inaccuracy by reporting a 1.2% rise in August 2008, up 3.4% on the year and in the face of the UK economy slumping fast into recession. Whilst the mainstream media mistakenly concentrates on explaining why retail sales rose, I refer readers to the below two graphs, one of the official retail sales data and the second of the inflation indexed and trend adjusted retail sales which more accurately reflects the current true state of distressed retailers than the wild month to month gyrations of official data that literally switch between boom and bust statistics on a monthly basis.Read full article... Read full article...
Wednesday, September 17, 2008
Frozen Capital Markets and Stock Holder Capital Destruction / Economics / Credit Crisis 2008
By: Mick_Phoenix
Recap of the scenario: bubble, easy money, inflation in fiat money supply, inflation in commodities and hard assets, inflation, fear of inflation, rising rates, YC inverting, flattening, rising and inverting again, tightening, withdrawal of liquidity, corrections, crashes, talk of stagflation, FEAR, withdrawal of speculative funds, further corrections and crashes, demand collapse.......Deflation.Read full article... Read full article...
Tuesday, September 16, 2008
Is the United States In Recession? / Economics / Recession 2008 - 2010
By: Paul_L_Kasriel
At every FOMC meeting this year at least one voting member has dissented from the majority. The dissenter or dissenters either objected to the federal funds interest rate reductions implemented earlier in the year or wanted to increase the interest rate when the majority voted to keep the rate unchanged. The major reason for these FOMC dissents was a belief that Fed policy was too accommodative and, thus, would fan the flames of consumer price inflation. On the eve of the September 16 FOMC meeting, we believe that it is time for these FOMC hawks to “eat crow.”Read full article... Read full article...
Tuesday, September 16, 2008
UK CPI inflation Soars to 4.7%, Paralysis at the Bank of England / Economics / Inflation
By: Nadeem_Walayat
UK CPI inflation hit 4.7%, soaring onwards and upwards towards 5%, which triggers another letter from the Bank of England Governor, Mervyn King explaining why he has again failed in the BOE's primary objective of controlling inflation to below 3%. Inflation has been driven higher by food and energy costs that despite crude oil and natural gas price falls has seen clear profiteering amongst energy and gas supply companies lifting consumer energy prices by over 30% in recent weeks which and contrary to the industries propaganda machine is not reflected in the forward gas market prices for winter 2008, therefore triggering a potential windfall tax of at least £1 billion which could be announced at the Labour party conference this week. Read full article... Read full article...
Monday, September 15, 2008
The REFLATION Dam Has Burst! Monetary Flooding Anticipated… / Economics / Liquidity Bubble
By: Ty_Andros
Oh what a two weeks it has been. It is a CHALLENGING task to figure out the latest FINANCIAL and Geopolitical curveballs that need to be interpreted. The activity in the last two weeks is EXACTLY why the “Crack Up Boom” series has continued. They stepped over the line with Bear Stearns (they had to) and the next dominoes to fall have done so. As Fannie and Freddie continue on the path to their demise, and that of the US dollar, the money printing now must go into a gear that is feared by the US Treasury and the Federal Reserve. Read full article... Read full article...
Monday, September 15, 2008
United States to Pay the Price of Nationalization / Economics / Government Intervention
By: John_Browne
Last week, the U.S. government took the unprecedented step of effectively nationalizing mortgage giants Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac. Together, the two companies hold or guarantee some $5.2 trillion, or about half, of all American residential mortgages. A substantial portion of this debt is tilting toward default. Given the size of the numbers, American tax payers should be very concerned. Read full article... Read full article...
Monday, September 15, 2008
US Trade Deficit Myths Busted / Economics / US Dollar
By: Mike_Shedlock
Jack Crooks writes: The public is consistently fed doomsday scenarios from sources that absolutely should not be ill-informed, including the International Monetary Fund, the Federal Reserve and the Treasury.
These guys should be the most informed bunch of all. But many are dead wrong when it comes to the U.S. current account deficit and its doomful impact on the U.S. dollar.
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Sunday, September 14, 2008
America 's Financial Apocalypse Heralds Decade Long Depression / Economics / Great Depression II
By: Mike_Stathis
Despite attempts made by Greenspan and Bernanke, there is no way to avert the payback period that has been building for over two decades. Over this stretch, America has consumed much more than it has produced. As a result, both consumer and federal debt have ballooned to record levels. And now, the payback period is upon us. The bailout buffet won't end with Fannie and Freddie. There's a lot more where that came from because the “Fed's food court” remains open, as does that of the U.S. Treasury. In fact, the autos are in the process of being bailed out with $50 billion in “loans.” I expect the airlines to also receive some form of a bailout as well.Read full article... Read full article...
Friday, September 12, 2008
XL's Spreadsheet Fails to Addup / Economics / Recession 2008 - 2010
By: Nadeem_Walayat
XL, Britain's third largest tour operator went bust today leaving more than 90,000 holiday makers stranded across the globe and another 200,000 with advance bookings facing a loss. The company was forced to call in the
administrators this morning after last minute financial backing talks failed.Read full article... Read full article...
Thursday, September 11, 2008
Greenspan Most Responsible for Credit Crisis Should Get Lost / Economics / Credit Crisis 2008
By: Mike_Stathis
Mr. Greenspan, you have been the individual most responsible for the current crisis; a crisis which commenced only a few years after you tried to minimize the dotcom collapse, which of course you also created. By flooding the banks with ridiculously low interest rates you thought this Ponzi scheme economy could run on worthless money forever. But when you saw the end was coming, you quietly made your exit.Read full article... Read full article...
Wednesday, September 10, 2008
US Dollar Rally Signals a Severe Deflationary Depression / Economics / Economic Depression
By: Kurt_Kasun
Extraordinary Measures Today, a Financial Funeral Tomorrow -I wish I was referring to Fannie and Freddie in the title of this piece, but because those institutions are being resurrected, the funeral I am waiting for is the one for our entire fiat-based system. We are now on the brink of a collapse in confidence that brings the whole world financial system to its knees. Each market intervening action is becoming more extraordinary. The rallies which pull the suckers in following the intervening actions are becoming briefer and less powerful. I expect this one to be no different. This sequence has now become a broken record. Markets threaten to take out technical support levels and the government comes to the rescue. Armageddon is avoided until another day and a relief rally ensues on the belief that the government has fixed the problem a new bull market can begin. After all, this is how investors have been conditioned over the last three decades. Read full article... Read full article...
Tuesday, September 09, 2008
UK Hiring Intentions Lowest In 9 Years: Manpower / Economics / UK Economy
By: Mike_Shedlock
In Hiring Intentions Lowest In 17 Years I spoke on the Job situation in the US.This post is about job prospects in the UK and worldwide. Please consider UK Jobs outlook weakest for nine years .
The outlook for the UK jobs market is the weakest for almost a decade with employers freezing new recruitment as business confidence plummets, according to worldwide research published on Tuesday.
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Tuesday, September 09, 2008
US Hiring Intentions Lowest In 17 Years: Manpower / Economics / US Economy
By: Mike_Shedlock
MarketWatch, citing data from Manpower, is reporting Glum outlook on jobs .Unless you work in the oil, gas or related mining industries, the job market is unlikely to look brighter in the fourth quarter, and even retailers are glum about hiring for the upcoming holiday season, according to the latest Manpower Employment Outlook Survey.
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Tuesday, September 09, 2008
Debt Deflation Turning Economic Democracy Into a Financial Oligarchy / Economics / Credit Crisis 2008
By: Mike_Whitney
An interview with Michael Hudson, former Wall Street economist specializing in the balance of payments and real estate at the Chase Manhattan Bank (now JP Morgan Chase & Co.), Arthur Anderson, and later at the Hudson Institute (no relation).
On Friday afternoon the government announced plans to place the two mortgage giants, Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, under “conservatorship.” Shareholders will be virtually wiped out (their stock already had plunged by over 90 per cent) but the US Treasury will step in to protect the companies' debt. To some extent it also will protect their preferred shares, which Morgan-Chase have marked down only by half.
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Monday, September 08, 2008
Paulson's Actions Herald the Financial Collapse of the American Economy / Economics / Credit Crisis 2008
By: Peter_Schiff
Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson, the man who said that subprime was contained and that the Bazooka in his pocket would never be used, now assures us that the bailout of Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac will be costless to taxpayers. Despite the near euphoria that the plan has sparked on Wall Street, the move will go down in history as the biggest policy blunder of all time, and will be credited as a pivotal point in the financial collapse of the American economy. The ultimate cost to Unites States citizens will be in the range of hundreds of billions of dollars, perhaps more.Read full article... Read full article...
Monday, September 08, 2008
US Economy Confounds Economic Pundits / Economics / US Economy
By: Gerard_Jackson
What gives here? The Commerce Department reports that GDP grew at an annual rate of 3.3 per cent while unemployment rose to 6.1 per cent, giving partisan commentators enough ammunition to attack each other. Politically I'm a very conservative man who thoroughly detests the Democratic Party and who tends to think of most journalists as nothing better than leftwing cockroaches, an opinion that has been greatly strengthened by the media's disgusting attacks on Sarah Palin. Nevertheless, the one thing I will never do is bend economics for partisan reasons. To do so would be to cheat my readers.Read full article... Read full article...
Sunday, September 07, 2008
Economic Forecasts and Analysis For US Financial Markets (Sept 8-12) / Economics / UK Economy
By: Joseph_Brusuelas
The week of September 8-12 will see a heavy week of US macro data. Inflation will be at the forefront with import prices and producer prices released on Thursday and Friday, while the advance retail sales estimate for August to close out the week figures to be the primary market moving release of the week. The week will kick off with the Tuesday publication of the July pending home sales release. The majority of the data for the week will be published on Thursday, which will also see the release of the July trade balance, weekly jobless claims and US monthly budget statement. Friday will also see the publication of the University of Michigan’s preliminary estimate of consumer sentiment for September.Read full article... Read full article...
Saturday, September 06, 2008
Continuing Credit Crisis About to Get a Lot Worse / Economics / Credit Crisis 2008
By: John_Mauldin
- Thoughts on the Continuing Crisis
- Fool Me Once, Shame on You
- Delinquencies and Foreclosures Spike UP
- Unemployment Rises to 6.1%
- Action Is Needed Now
We are entering the next stage of the credit crisis, and one which is potentially more troubling than what we have seen over the past year, absent some policy reactions by the central banks and governments world wide. The crisis was started by an intense run-up in leverage by financial institutions and investors world wide, investing in increasingly risky assets such as subprime mortgages and then the realization that leverage could hurt. The deleveraging process started to intensify last year about this time. The easy part of that process has been just about done. Now is the time for the really hard work. It will not be pretty. In this week's letter, we look at the process and think about its implications for the markets and the economy, and visit some data on the housing market and unemployment.
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