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Market Oracle FREE Newsletter

Analysis Topic: Economic Trends Analysis

The analysis published under this topic are as follows.

Economics

Thursday, May 15, 2008

Government Inflation Data Does Not Match Reality / Economics / Inflation

By: Gary_Dorsch

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleIn an age where governments of every political stripe distort economic data to promote their own self-interests, it's hardly surprising that they present inflation statistics that are wildly at odds with the reality faced by consumers and businesses, and regarded with utter disbelief. In the latest US government report on inflation for instance, there was a glaring “seasonal adjustment,” for energy prices that cast great doubt as to the accuracy of the findings.

US Labor Dept apparatchniks said consumer prices rose a smaller than expected 0.2% in April, tamed by energy prices, which were unchanged last month. Utilizing an obscure “seasonal adjustment,” Labor figured that gasoline prices actually fell 2% in April, which doesn't reflect the reality of what consumers were paying at the pump. Furthermore, the IMF's global food price index rose 43% over the last 12-months, but the US consumer price index for food is only 5.1% higher.

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Economics

Wednesday, May 14, 2008

Japan Lost Decade Gives Way to th New Asian Reality / Economics / Japan Economy

By: Keith_Fitz-Gerald

KYOTO, JAPAN - On one of my first mornings at our home here, my family and I headed for the Fushimi Inari Taisha shrine. Built in the 8th century by the powerful Hata family, the shrine is best known for the four consecutive kilometers of orange Torii gates covering the mountain on which it was built.

My wife's family has been coming here for centuries, making it a familiar and comfortable place that we enjoy very much.

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Economics

Tuesday, May 13, 2008

The “BRICs” (and Mortar) of the New Global Economy / Economics / Emerging Markets

By: John_Browne

In the early days of the American republic, fortune seekers were urged to “Go west young man!” Unfortunately, with the American economy now clearly showing its fragility, the rallying cry for today could be, “Go abroad!”

In the past quarter century, the center of wealth creation has steadily moved away  from the United States and towards new foreign competitors, especially the so-called “BRIC” countries of Brazil, Russia, India and China, where economic growth rates have greatly eclipsed the U.S.  In recent years, this economic might has translated into much higher returns on their respective stock markets.  These movements are creating a wave of real wealth that wise American investors cannot afford to miss.

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Economics

Tuesday, May 13, 2008

UK Flawed Inflation Measure Explodes Higher, 3% CPI, 4.2% RPI / Economics / Inflation

By: Nadeem_Walayat

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleThe Consumer Price Index (CPI) leapt higher to 3% in April from 2.5% in March, nearly hitting the Bank of England's letter writing trigger level of 3.1%. This confirms the Market Oracle expectations for a surge in UK inflation as not only the UK but all of the worlds major governments are engaged in the process of rampant money supply growth that is feeding through in higher inflation as too much cash is chasing too few goods. This is most visible in the commodities markets where strong price fundamentals coupled with the Bank of England's money supply printing presses running at full stream as evidenced by the £100 billion of new debt loaned to the banking sector in recent months.

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Economics

Tuesday, May 13, 2008

US Heading for Double-Digit Inflation / Economics / Stagflation

By: Money_and_Markets

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleMartin Weiss writes: Nearly all the pieces are now in place for inflation to strike with increasing speed and fury, catching Wall Street by surprise, throwing government policy into turmoil and, at the same time, opening up broad opportunities for investors.

I know. I've seen this movie once before. And the script will forever be ingrained in my mind.

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Economics

Monday, May 12, 2008

US Recession 2000 Can tell us a lot about today's Economy / Economics / Recession

By: Gerard_Jackson

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleSome readers have been asking how "Austrian economic analysis held up during the last recession". Brilliantly, is the answer. It successfully described the emergence of the American recession and the pattern of rising unemployment and spending neatly fitted the Austrian explanation for the boom-bust cycle. Austrianism claimed that the contraction started in the higher stages of production and then worked its way down the production structure. Figures from the NAPM (National Association of Purchasing Management) in the middle 2000 gave considerable support to this view.

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Economics

Monday, May 12, 2008

Inflation Fear / Economics / Inflation

By: Paul_J_Nolte

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleWith all the hand wringing about consumer confidence falling to 25+ year lows, it becomes much easier to understand IF we make the assumption that we are in a recession. Others worry about the self-fulfilling prophesy – if we believe we are in a recession, it will be so. However much of what is happening today was planted over a year ago. This too is the reason for why all the rate cuts made by the Fed have had little impact upon investors and the economy. However, the cuts will eventually have an impact – but that is not likely until later in the year. A complicating factor in today's economy is the lack of lending “interest” by banking institutions.

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Economics

Friday, May 09, 2008

Credit Card Debt Ticking Time Bomb / Economics / US Debt

By: Peter_Schiff

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleFor those holding out hope that the American economy can miraculously avoid a long and deep recession consumer credit is often viewed as the wonder drug that can cure all manner of economic ills. As such, this week's report showing $15 billion growth in consumer credit was widely heralded as proof of America's economic strength and resilience.  However, we are now suffering the after effects of too much debt, and our salvation cannot be found in more of the same.  

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Economics

Wednesday, May 07, 2008

The Bernanke Monetary Policy Conundrum Heading for a Crash / Economics / Economic Depression

By: Mick_Phoenix

The Bernanke Monetary Policy Conundrum Heading for a Crash

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleWith the US Federal Reserve cutting its Fed Fund Rate to 2%, presumably to aid the cost of borrowing and allow an expansion of lending that will lift the US economy from the doldrums you would expect to see an expansion of bank business. Not so according to the latest Fed's Senior Loan Officer Opinion Survey which shows that banks are now actively avoiding the expansion of credit and it can be shown are deliberately causing a credit contraction.

This has profound meaning for the US and the wider global economy.

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Economics

Wednesday, May 07, 2008

The Great Consumer Shutdown of 2008- Wages Squeezed by Inflation / Economics / Credit Crisis 2008

By: Adrian_Ash

Best Financial Markets Analysis Article"...Now that cheap money's vanished, where will consumers find enough cash to pay the bills...?"

THE CHEAP MONEY BUBBLE might have gone pop. But everywhere we look, the mischief of cheap money continues to cause mayhem for investors, savers, retirees, even school children.

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Economics

Tuesday, May 06, 2008

US Government Facing Fiscal Armageddon- US Dollar in Deep Trouble / Economics / US Dollar

By: Money_and_Markets

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleWhen a president tells you the economy's OK and wannabe presidents tell you it's a disaster ... or when Wall Street pundits change their story almost daily ... I can understand how it may be tough to know what to believe ... and even tougher to decide what to do.

But when three respected government agencies put out reports and data that unanimously lead to the same conclusion about the most important factor in your financial future, there's no room for disbelief, no excuse for inaction.

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Economics

Tuesday, May 06, 2008

Fixing The Credit Markets to Avoid Another Credit Crisis / Economics / Credit Crisis 2008

By: John_Mauldin

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleThis week in Outside the Box we take up a topic that should be on the top of the agenda of every regulatory authority, executives at financial services firms of all types, and average investors: How do we fix the credit markets to make sure we do not have such a crisis again? Good friend Michael Lewitt of Hegemony Capital Management gives us his observations, some of which go further than I would personally like to see us go. But this is the conversation that must happen if we are to steer clear of future crises. It is clear to me now that a laissez faire approach to regulating certain financial instruments exposes the entire economy to risks much larger than the loss of a business here or there. While better disclosure is certainly appropriate, it is not enough.

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Economics

Tuesday, May 06, 2008

Yes Virginia. This Is A Recession / Economics / Recession

By: Ronald_R_Cooke

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleA preliminary report from the United States Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA), claims American Current-dollar GDP -- the market value of the nation's output of goods and services – increased 3.15 percent or $111.0 billion in the first quarter of 2008 (versus the last quarter of 2007), to a level of $14,185.2 billion. That economic performance equates to an average annual year over year increase of 4.67% against Q1 2007.  

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Economics

Tuesday, May 06, 2008

US Fed Monetary Policy- Bernanke Gets It Wrong / Economics / Recession

By: Gerard_Jackson

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleSince the 2000 election America's leftwing mainstream media has tried to pump out a stream of bad economic news. According to this mob of political bigots recessions only happen under Republican presidents, completely ignoring the easily researched fact that the 2000 recession began under President Clinton. Now that so many indicators have turned negative the media are having a collective orgasm.

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Economics

Monday, May 05, 2008

Money Supply, Inflation, Deflation and Gold / Economics / Money Supply

By: John_Lee

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleMoney serves as a medium of exchange and store of value. Price provides an important clearing mechanism in a society. Here we are going to explore the interesting dynamics between money and price. In a free market, when the quantity of money is fixed, the fact that the price of an apple is $1 and that of a Parker pen is $2 has tremendous implications. It takes knowledge, ingredients  and time to grow an apple while it involves branding, material, and capital to produce a Parker pen.

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Economics

Monday, May 05, 2008

US Economic Stimulus Not a Silver Bullet / Economics / US Economy

By: Mike_Shedlock

While pondering whether there is going to be a second half recovery on the basis of stimulus checks, let's first take a look at the possible repercussions of Cash-Out Refis Lowest in Four Years . Fifty-six percent of Freddie Mac-owned loans were cash-out refinances in the first quarter of 2008, the smallest percentage since Q2 in 2004, the GSE said Friday. First quarter's share compares starkly to the 77 percent share of refinancing posted just one quarter earlier, and underscores the new reality for most homeowners.

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Economics

Monday, May 05, 2008

The Great Depression of the 2010s / Economics / Economic Depression

By: Darryl_R_Schoon

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleEconomics is not rocket science. Neither is power.
Depressions are monetary phenomena caused by central bank issuance of excessive credit. In 1913, the newly created US central bank, the Federal Reserve, began issuing credit-based money in the US . Within ten years, the central bank flow of credit ignited the 1920s US stock market bubble; and shortly thereafter, following the collapse of the bubble in 1929, the world entered its first Great Depression in 1933.

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Economics

Saturday, May 03, 2008

US in Recession Despite Manipulated Employment and Inflation Statistics / Economics / Recession

By: John_Mauldin

  • Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleLies, Damn Lies, and Statistics
  • Who Is Inflating the Numbers?
  • Honey, I Blew up the Employment Numbers
  • A Black Swan in Food
  • Housing Numbers Are Better Than I Wrote

"There are three kinds of lies: lies, damn lies, and statistics." – commonly attributed to Benjamin Disraeli

If we are to believe the government statistics, the GDP of the US grew by 0.6% in the first quarter of this year. And unemployment actually fell. And there were only 20,000 job losses. This week we do a quick review of why the statistics can be so misleading. We also look at why I was wrong about the housing number last week, and I highlight what could be a very serious Black Swan lurking in the agricultural bushes. It should make for an interesting letter. It's hard to know where to begin, there are just so many tempting targets; so let's take the statistical aberrations in the order they came out this week.

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Economics

Friday, May 02, 2008

Debt the Price for Economic Growth / Economics / US Economy

By: Andy_Sutton

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleOur call from last week is playing out exactly as we forecasted. The Fed cut interest rates, signaled a willingness to pause, and the Dollar has begun another dead cat bounce. Included below is a chart that shows other dead cat bounces that have occurred during the past year. Note the end result of each of the prior bounces: an ultimately lower Dollar. There is no reason to believe this time will be any different. We outlined the reasons for this assumption in last week's piece.

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Economics

Friday, May 02, 2008

Inflation v. Unemployment / Economics / Inflation

By: Gerard_Jackson

It says much about the lousy state of economic debate that the 1993 study The Costs of Unemployment in Australia , produced by the Economic Planning and Advisory Council and co-authored by Raja Junankar and Cezary Kapuscinski, is still being touted as a piece of sound economics. At the heart of this study is the grave economic error a "fight inflation first" policy generally incurs more costs than benefits.

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