Analysis Topic: Economic Trends Analysis
The analysis published under this topic are as follows.
Thursday, August 28, 2008
Economic Depression: Who will Suffer the Least? / Economics / Economic Depression
By: John_Browne
Though few may have noticed, the past few weeks may be regarded as a global economic turning point. Evidence is mounting that the United States is entering a recession, with increasing signs that it could morph into a depression. While the current Administration appears resigned to bail out or nationalize large tracts of American commerce, the presidential candidates drift towards Great Society era spending proposals. At the same time, America’s principal economic rivals appear to be charting courses that are not in line with U.S. interests. Read full article... Read full article...
Wednesday, August 27, 2008
Stagflation Becoming an Economic Reality / Economics / Stagflation
By: Money_Morning
William Patalon III writes: U.S. Federal Reserve Chairman Ben S. Bernanke didn't use the "S" word - stagflation - but he might as well have.
On Friday, the U.S. central bank chief said that the financial crisis that has hammered the U.S. market is combining with rising inflation to eviscerate American economy. Together, the two forces are making it extremely difficult for the Fed to restore economic stability in the U.S. market.
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Wednesday, August 27, 2008
The United States of America is the Next Argentina / Economics / Credit Crisis 2008
By: Darryl_R_Schoon
DON'T CRY FOR ME ARGENTINA SAVE YOUR TEARS FOR YOURSELF - While bankers do control the issuance of credit, they cannot control themselves. Bankers are the fatal flaw in their deviously opaque system that has substituted credit for money and debt for savings. The bankers have spread their credit-based system across the world by catering to basic human needs and ambition and greed; and while human needs can be satisfied, ambition and greed cannot—and the bankers' least of all. Read full article... Read full article...
Thursday, August 21, 2008
Soaring Savings Rate Heralds End of Consumerism / Economics / US Economy
By: Mike_Shedlock
In Revisiting the M3 Contraction I stated " consumers are saving, rather than spending their stimulus checks ". Some found that statement hard to believe. Let's take a look. Sev writes: " Mish, the argument that more people are saving is something I find hard to believe. Their bills are skyrocketing and "price" increases are eating into their monthly costs. Maybe some have paid down bills but I would bet the vast majority don't have the means. Now maybe ultra rich people are moving their vast sums into perceived safer investment vehicles but the thought that actual saving is increasing I don't think makes complete sense.
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Thursday, August 21, 2008
Revisiting US Money Supply M3 Contraction / Economics / Money Supply
By: Mike_Shedlock
Many have been writing asking how the chart and commentary in M3 Contraction - The Future Is Now can possibly be correct. Here is the chart and a snip of text once again for convenience. The key sentence below is in RED. The Telegraph is reporting Sharp US money supply contraction points to Wall Street crunch ahead .
The US money supply has experienced the sharpest contraction in modern history, heightening the risk of a Wall Street crunch and a severe economic slowdown in coming months.
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Thursday, August 21, 2008
Collateral Economic Damage in the War Between Inflation and Deflation / Economics / Money Supply
By: Adrian_Ash
"...The shooting-match between inflation in prices and deflation in assets is still a long way from won..."
WHICH WAY now for financial assets? Given what pumped them up, starting in late 2002, you're better off asking which way for money itself.
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Wednesday, August 20, 2008
US Recession with Inflation or Deflation? / Economics / Recession 2008 - 2010
By: Bruce_Allen
"One foot on the brake and one on the gas, hey! " --Sammy Hagar, "I Can't Drive 55" It's the summer of 2008 in the U.S. . Recession is imminent, if not already here, and debate rages as to whether it will be accompanied by inflation, giving us that 70's show--stagflation. Most respected economists insist the inflation risk is small; a number of others think it's high. We examine the arguments, dividing them into Things We Know and Things We Suspect.
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Tuesday, August 19, 2008
Stagflation a Weapon of Mass Wealth Destruction / Economics / Stagflation
By: Richard_C_Cook
U.S. wholesale prices in July 2008 grew at the fastest rate since 1981. The cost of materials has risen 9.8 percent in the last twelve months, according to government data. While gasoline prices fell the week of August 18 to $3.74 a gallon, they remain far higher than the $2.40 a gallon of mid-2005. Meanwhile, the price of food at the grocery store continues to climb, while consumer purchasing power remains stagnant.Read full article... Read full article...
Tuesday, August 19, 2008
US M3 Money Supply Contraction Points to Deflation / Economics / Money Supply
By: Mike_Shedlock
The Telegraph is reporting Sharp US money supply contraction points to Wall Street crunch ahead . The US money supply has experienced the sharpest contraction in modern history, heightening the risk of a Wall Street crunch and a severe economic slowdown in coming months.
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Tuesday, August 19, 2008
Global Economic Slow Down / Economics / Global Economy
By: Paul_J_Nolte
Amid signs of economic slowing, the oil decline continues to garner the headlines. Not only is the US economy in a funk, but also Europe is beginning to show signs of slowing, as is Hong Kong – all the more reason to sell energy, as less will be needed in a global economy producing less.Read full article... Read full article...
Monday, August 18, 2008
The US Economy: All the little things that go to make a Recession / Economics / Recession 2008 - 2010
By: Gerard_Jackson
Since 9/11 the US money supply has rocketed by about 70 per cent*. (The Clinton presidency was just as bad). The problem is one of bad economics, not bad investment decisions, wild speculation, the housing boom, the falling dollar, the current account deficit, the domestic deficit, etc. The vast majority of economic pundits have only a dim understanding of the link between the money supply and America's current economic difficulties.Read full article... Read full article...
Monday, August 18, 2008
US Recession, Economic Data is a Lagging Indicator / Economics / Recession 2008 - 2010
By: John_Mauldin
In this weekend's Thoughts from the Frontlines, I quoted from part of a very thoughtful, right-on-target analysis by David A. Rosenberg entitled "The Elusive Bottom." Over the weekend, I decided that you should read the whole piece, as Rosenberg makes some very solid points about how the markets and the economy may play out over the next few years. He has a non-consensus viewpoint, but that is what I like for Outside the Box. In fact, I think this is one of the more thought-provoking pieces I have used in OTB for some time. Read full article... Read full article...
Monday, August 18, 2008
G7 Collapsing GDP Growth Mirrors Plunging Corporate Earnings / Economics / Credit Crisis 2008
By: Ty_Andros
Confusion reigns supreme as markets correct, in predictable manner, allowing the Main stream financial press, G7 central banks and poorly prepared investors dream of the days when the financial wind was at their backs, rather then brutally in their faces. Markets are moving in a violently countertrend manner allowing people and investors with short term memories to predict the return to happy days. Don't blink or you may miss your day in the sun as: NOTHING HAS CHANGED! Absolutely nothing. Read full article... Read full article...
Monday, August 18, 2008
Economic Forecasts and Analysis For US Financial Markets (August 18-22) / Economics / US Economy
By: Joseph_Brusuelas
The week of August 18-22 will see a very light week of economic data on the calendar. Aside from Dallas Fed President Fisher's comments on the US Economy on Wed, the only potentially market moving macro data for the week will be the Monday release of the PPI and Tuesday publication of the Housing Starts series for July. The remainder of the major data for the week will be released on Thursday when the weekly jobless claims series, the August Philadelphia Fed survey and the June index of leading economic indicators are published. Read full article... Read full article...
Sunday, August 17, 2008
Double Digit Inflation Forecasts are way off base / Economics / Inflation
By: Mike_Shedlock
BusinessWeek is Bracing for Inflation . Let's take a look at an article written by John K. Castle, CEO of Castle Harlan, a New York private equity firm.
Growing evidence suggests American consumers, businesspeople, and political leaders should all be bracing for double-digit inflation, probably as early as 2009. Read full article... Read full article...
Sunday, August 17, 2008
Crashing Global Economy Boosts Dollar as Interest Rate Differentials Narrow / Economics / Recession 2008 - 2010
By: Prieur_du_Plessis
Almost exactly a year after the advent of the credit debacle, the term “credit crunch” squeezed into Britain's Chambers dictionary, defined as “a sudden and drastic reduction in the availability of credit”.
Fittingly, the past week witnessed market participants focusing anew on deteriorating global growth prospects, arguing that slower growth and belt-tightening times could reduce inflation pressures.
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Saturday, August 16, 2008
Economic Decoupling Fails as World Follows US into Recession / Economics / Recession 2008 - 2010
By: John_Mauldin
- A Mid-Year Correction
- Whatever Happened to Decoupling?
- The UK Starts to Slow
- A Recession by Any Other Name
- What's a Central Banker to Do?
The old mantra was that if the United States sneezed, the rest of the world would catch a cold, as the US was seen as the main driver of world growth. That was then. Economists and analysts began to argue that China and the developing markets were starting to provide a consumer base for the world. And Europe's new and growing markets would be able to stave off problems from abroad and stay on their own growth path. The world, we were assured last year, would not suffer from problems in the US economy.
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Friday, August 15, 2008
Euro-zone on the Brink of Recession / Economics / Recession 2008 - 2010
By: Money_Morning
Jennifer Yousfi writes: The Eurozone economy recorded its first decline in more than a decade as slowdowns in the European Union's largest economies dragged on gross domestic product (GDP).
The Eurozone economy, which covers the 15 nations that share the euro currency, contracted 0.2% in the second quarter, as a 0.5% decline in Germany and a 0.3% decline in France offset gains in the smaller economies of Austria, Portugal and Spain, Eurostat, the European Union's official statistics office, announced yesterday (Thursday).
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Friday, August 15, 2008
Fundemental Change as Global Economy Heads For Recession / Economics / Recession 2008 - 2010
By: Mike_Shedlock
The global economy is slowing rapidly. Let's take a look at some striking examples. Germany, France, Spain, Italy
Bloomberg is reporting German, French Economies Shrink as Spending, Investment Falter .
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Thursday, August 14, 2008
Global Oil, Food and Water Crisis Economic Tipping Points / Economics / Global Economy
By: Money_and_Markets
Larry Edelson writes: I'll discuss the state of the markets shortly. First, I'd like to discuss the state of the world's future.
According to a long-term study just released by the U.S. Naval Services Department, a series of tipping points could dramatically alter the global prospects for economic growth and humanity — for the worse.
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