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Market Oracle FREE Newsletter

Analysis Topic: Economic Trends Analysis

The analysis published under this topic are as follows.

Economics

Sunday, April 27, 2008

Alan Greenspan: The Age of Hubris (and the long road back) / Economics / Money Supply

By: Clif_Droke

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleHubris is an amazing thing. It causes those infected by it to justify actions that would normally be indefensible.

Take Alan Greenspan, for instance. He recently penned an editorial in the Financial Times claiming that under his leadership, the Federal Reserve is blameless on the property bubble. No way could the Greenspan Fed have foreseen the devastation its money policy of 2001-2006 would inflict on the housing market and the larger economy. “It wasn't my fault. Don't blame me,” claims Alan.

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Economics

Saturday, April 26, 2008

How the Economy Really Works- Inflation, Money Supply and the Velocity of Money / Economics / Money Supply

By: John_Mauldin

  • Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleThe Velocity Of Money
  • Is the Money Supply Growing or Not?
  • P=MV
  • A Slowdown in Velocity
  • If You Are in a Hole, Stop Digging
  • And More Write-offs to Come

The late and great Milton Friedman told us that inflation is always and everywhere a monetary phenomenon. But there is an asterisk to his equation that we need to examine, namely, the velocity of money. Sometimes a fast-growing money supply is not as inflationary as you might think. Then we will take quick looks at why the banking sector is in for more and larger rounds of write-offs, as well as note that the housing industry is in a hole but is gamely digging itself deeper. This week's letter will require you to put your thinking cap on as we travel to a mythical island to get an understanding of how the economy really works. There are a lot of charts, so the letter may again print long, but the word length is normal. And with no "but first," we jump right in.

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Economics

Friday, April 25, 2008

Government Bailouts Weapons of Mass Inflation / Economics / Inflation

By: Adrian_Ash

Best Financial Markets Analysis Article"...Dark secrets known only to top-level officials; the public good trumping public disclosure; urgent action needed to avert disaster – haven't we been here before...?"

IN THE EMERGING economies of East Asia , governments face fresh rioting if food prices keep soaring.

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Economics

Friday, April 25, 2008

For the Real Forces Behind US Economic Growth Look at the Nasdaq / Economics / US Economy

By: Brian_Bloom

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleThink about this- One of the most interesting economists of the early 20 th Century was Joseph Schumpeter.
Here is a quote from the Wikipedia article: “Schumpeter's theory is that the success of capitalism will lead to a form of corporatism and a fostering of values hostile to capitalism, especially among intellectuals. The intellectual and social climate needed to allow entrepreneurship to thrive will not exist in advanced capitalism; it will be replaced by socialism in some form.

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Economics

Thursday, April 24, 2008

How Japan May Cause the Failure of Current Federal Reserve Policy / Economics / Deflation

By: Mick_Phoenix

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleStarve the Rich to Feed the Poor - Having written 2 in-depth articles about the rationale behind the Federal Reserve and US Govt plans to bail out the financial system some readers of the last couple of Occasional Letters may well have wondered if I was about to change my outlook. This article should put paid to any such thoughts.

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Economics

Wednesday, April 23, 2008

Zen and the Art of Monetary Mayhem / Economics / Money Supply

By: Adrian_Ash

"...Just like the Bank of England , the US Fed seems to have Britney-sized 'issues' with its core stock-in-trade – money itself..."

PROFESSOR TIM BESLEY , one of the nine people chosen to set interest-rate policy at the Bank of England in London , gave a speech on Tuesday about "Inflation and the Global Economy".

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Economics

Tuesday, April 22, 2008

Tucson and the Great Depression- This Is Not Your Normal Economic Downturn / Economics / Economic Depression

By: Darryl_R_Schoon

Best Financial Markets Analysis Article…Goldman Sachs recently revised its forecast for the U.S. economy, predicting a recession in 2008 (Reuters)…Of course, not all recessions are created equal. Goldman doesn't predict a deep recession, but rather a mild turndown, with modest recovery in 2009. CFR.org, 1/18/08 , Lee Hudson Teslik, Assistant Editor and economics writer at CFR.org The Council on Foreign Relations. Mr. Teslik is 26 years old.

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Economics

Tuesday, April 22, 2008

US Economic Quarterly Review and Outlook for 2008 / Economics / US Economy

By: John_Mauldin

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleThis week's Outside the Box is from my friends at Hoisington Management. While somewhat technical, they make the case that a slowdown in consumer spending is inevitable. This is worth taking some time and thinking about. Quoting: "This means that consumer spending increases should be approximately zero for the next three years. Further exacerbating the problem is the personal saving rate which declined from 5.2% in the decade of the 1990s to average 1.3% in the last seven years, and now stands at 0.3%. Should declining wealth, rising unemployment and poor economic conditions cause consumers to begin to save and lift the rate back to the 1.3% average of the past seven years, real consumer spending would experience a multi-year contraction."

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Economics

Tuesday, April 22, 2008

The US Needs a Good Dose of Supply-side Economics Instead of Interest Rate Cuts / Economics / US Economy

By: Gerard_Jackson

Since last September the Fed has slashed the fed funds rate by 300 basis points to 2.25 per cent. Will there be anymore cuts? Not if Martin Feldstein, former chairman of President Reagan's Council of Economic Advisors, has anything to do with it. Feldstein, now a Harvard economics professor, argues that further cuts would promote commodity prices and inflation without solving the economy's woes. What he didn't say is that what the US economy needs is more production — not more monetary manipulation — if genuine demand is to expand.

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Economics

Monday, April 21, 2008

George Soros, Economic Illiteracy and Monetary Policy / Economics / Money Supply

By: Gerard_Jackson

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleSoros's main thrust against economics is that it is based on the theory that markets bring supply and demand into balance thus securing the best allocation of resources. He argues that this theory cannot apply to the real world because it is based on the model of perfect competition, on which he thinks modern economics depends.

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Economics

Monday, April 21, 2008

Is China Driving the Australian Economy Out of Business? / Economics / Austrailia

By: Gerard_Jackson

I have written several articles drawing attention to the possibility that monetary policy may have reduced the ratio of manufacturing to GDP, only to have my concerns dismissed by the likes of Des Moore, a former Treasury official, as not being part of "the traditional explanation". But I was not saying anything new or radical. The possibility of an overvalued currency reducing the size of a country's manufacturing base is sometimes called the "Dutch disease" or the "dual economy".

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Economics

Saturday, April 19, 2008

Will Fed Actions and American Culture Prevent a Soft Depression? / Economics / US Economy

By: John_Mauldin

  • Best Financial Markets Analysis Article The Muddle Through Question
  • Clowns to the Left of Me, Jokers to the Right of Me, Here I am Stuck in the Muddle Through Middle With You!
  • A Soft Depression? Not.
  • South Africa and Swiss Mountains

A few weeks ago I asked for readers to send me questions and said I would try and answer them while I was in Switzerland. Some of them were quite good and have given me ideas for whole newsletters but will require a lot of research. But a lot of them fell into two basic camps. This week we look at a number of questions from readers about my thoughts on the Muddle Through Economy.

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Economics

Friday, April 18, 2008

The Collapse of the US Economy / Economics / US Economy

By: Peter_Schiff

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleRecent high profile bankruptcies of mainstay American retailers, such as The Sharper Image and Linens ‘n Things, as well as the proposed mergers between Blockbuster/Circuit City and Delta/Northwest, and the admissions from the nation's leading student lenders that their business models are no longer viable, mark the beginning of a long overdue overhaul of the American economy. In short, the economy will be getting smaller and more expensive.

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Economics

Friday, April 18, 2008

Real Interest Rates Hit Minus 12.55% As Inflation Explodes! / Economics / Articles

By: Money_and_Markets

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleMike Larson writes: If you've been following the news, you know the Federal Reserve has been cutting interest rates. The benchmark federal funds rate was 5.25% last summer. It's all the way down to 2.25% now, and chances are the Fed will cut that rate again when it concludes its next policy meeting on April 30. The only question is whether we'll get a quarter-point or half-point cut at this time.

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Economics

Thursday, April 17, 2008

Euro-Zone Combats Stagflation with Strong Euro, as Asia Riots on Food Inflation / Economics / Stagflation

By: Christopher_Laird

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleInflation and stagflation, Euro, gold, and Asia
Stagflation is behind the strong Euro, but also lots of general commodity inflation. Gold loves the stagflation mixture. If there is one gold bullish factor above all the others, it is if stagflation stays with us. Asia also has its very serious problems with inflation, namely food prices.

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Economics

Wednesday, April 16, 2008

US Actual Inflation Trend Heading for Stagflation or Deflation? / Economics / Inflation

By: Jas_Jain

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleInflationists have been crying wolf for the past three plus years despite the fact that the annualized headline CPI, including food and energy, and not seasonally adjusted, for 12M, 6M, and 3M has fluctuated around the 20-year trend of 3%+- (yes, the annualized inflation in the US for the past 20 years is 3.08%). As a matter of fact, despite huge run up in crude oil and agriculturals during the past year the CPI rates in the graph are below their highs during 2005-07. Labor costs are by far the most dominant contributor to the CPI.

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Economics

Wednesday, April 16, 2008

It is 1937 for the US Federal Reserve / Economics / Economic Depression

By: Mick_Phoenix

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleThis Letter is a follow on from my article The Future Actions of The Federal Reserve and US Govt are known   in which, using the work of GB Eggertsson, we showed that the Fed/US Govt is following a plan to stimulate the economy and avoid a deflationary episode. Essentially the plan is to avoid the mistakes of the Depression and those of Japan in the 90's by using increased Government debt, monetized by the Fed, targeted directly at consumers. By employing a credible threat of an inflationary stance the Fed/US Govt hope to raise inflation expectations and therefore raise the price of assets. 

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Economics

Wednesday, April 16, 2008

40 Years of Real Interest Rates and, 80 Years of Dow/Gold Ratio / Economics / Inflation

By: Adrian_Ash

Best Financial Markets Analysis Article"...The infamous Dow/Gold Ratio just touched its long-run historic average. So which way next amid the Fed's inflationary melt-up...?"

IF WALL STREET STOCKS can surge 160 points on falling earnings, an 11% drop in housing starts, and a 16-year record for consumer-price inflation, then so can everything else that doesn't carry a picture of George Washington.

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Economics

Tuesday, April 15, 2008

The "Real" US Economy / Economics / Corporate Earnings

By: Paul_J_Nolte

Everything was looking good until Friday. Instead of bringing good things to light, they turned out the lights on the nascent market rally and put everyone back on their heels. The GE report came after the government reported the trade deficit worsened the day before – without much fanfare. However, in our view the worsening trade deficit takes out one of the few remaining legs supporting the large multi-national companies, specifically that while domestic sales are down, the foreign sales should carry the day.

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Economics

Monday, April 14, 2008

The Problems Spread as US Recession Takes Hold / Economics / US Economy

By: John_Browne

Last week, General Electric one of the finest companies in the world and an American icon, announced a major fall in earnings. Amazingly, the bad news surprised Wall Street, and GE shares fell 13 percent in a single day. Some surprise!

GE is one of the best-diversified and well managed companies on earth, and is seen as a barometer of both the US and the world economies. Its latest earnings report was impacted by the expected fall in financial services and a continued strength in overseas earnings. However, it also showed a largely unexpected fall in the sales of US medical devises as public and not-for-profit hospitals, suffering massive increases in their borrowing costs, cut back on spending. 

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