Analysis Topic: Economic Trends Analysis
The analysis published under this topic are as follows.
Thursday, August 14, 2008
US Deceptive Q2 GDP Based on Fraudulent Price Deflator / Economics / Market Manipulation
By: Jim_Willie_CB
It is hard to find much positive regarding the gold trade lately. The attacks have been multi-faceted during the weak late summer season. So resort to something of value: THE TRUTH. As Ralph Waldo Emerson once said, “The greatest homage one can pay to the truth is to tell it.” When the US financial lattice work was showing clear signals of near total destruction, if not simple decimation, when USGovt bailouts seemed certain to cost in the trillion$ from mortgage agency rescues and FHA mortgage loan mulligans (second chance shot in golf), when US banks seemed caught in a race to raise more cash for equity from friendly foreign fools who fail to read the news, when the USEconomic recession has been turning broad and deep, when General Motors and Ford seem caught managing their death process toward a certain bankruptcy, THE USGOVT NEEDED A REALLY GOOD LIE FROM WHICH TO BUILD A DOLLAR BOUNCE. Read full article... Read full article...
Thursday, August 14, 2008
Global Goldilocks Economy ? / Economics / US Economy
By: Kurt_Kasun
The new narrative forming among the Goldilocks crowd is that US economic supremacy reigns once again, as manifest in a reawakened "King Dollar". The US dollar will continue to strengthen, commodity prices will plummet, and the stock market can only rally from here since all of the bad news has already been discounted. The Global Goldilocks view is that the rest of the world slows just enough to dampen commodity pressures and prices, but the world does not slow too much to wreck the American economy. The dollar strengthens resulting in capital flows into the US . And voila-- we have a return to the glory days of the 1990s. Read full article... Read full article...
Thursday, August 14, 2008
Bank of England's Worthless 2% 2Year CPI Inflation Forecasts / Economics / UK Economy
By: Nadeem_Walayat
The Bank of England's in depth 48 page quarterly inflation report published yesterday concludes with the forecast for UK CPI inflation to be at 2% in 2 years time. Since the Bank of England first adopted the 2% CPI inflation target back in 2003, the Bank has perpetually made the same forecast for 2% CPI in two years time, and nearly always missed the target by a wide margin. Clearly there is something wrong in the banks procedures which appears to deliver the motions of generating paper work such as the 48 page report, followed by pats on the back rather than an effective response to the failure to meet the Banks primary objective.Read full article... Read full article...
Tuesday, August 12, 2008
UK Inflation Shocking Rise to 4.4% CPI Confirms Stagflation / Economics / Inflation
By: Nadeem_Walayat
Inflation data for July CPI inflation came in at a truly shocking rate of 4.4%, up 0.6% on June and well beyond our expectations for CPI inflation of 4.1% with the upper worse case scenario of inflation of 4.3%. Whilst at the same time the more recognised RPI measure equally rose to a shocking 5% rate also up 0.6% on June and now matches the base interest rate of 5% as the UK heads for negative real interest rates which has very bearish implications for sterling.Read full article... Read full article...
Monday, August 11, 2008
Economic Deflation is Not Coming, Deflation is Here! / Economics / Deflation
By: Mike_Shedlock
David, Rosenberg, Merrill Lynch's chief North American economist, says the US Remains Firmly In Recession . Merrill Lynch's David Rosenberg, the first economist from a major bank to declare a US recession was underway back in early January, argues that recent unemployment figures show yet more evidence that the US economy is a deep recession. My Comment : I could not possibly agree more.
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Saturday, August 09, 2008
Italy Tips Into Recession as Q2 GDP Contracts / Economics / Recession 2008 - 2010
By: Victoria_Marklew
The first of the Euro-zone's big economies reported preliminary Q2 GDP data today -- and the picture was not a pretty one. Italy's GDP contracted 0.3% q-o-q in Q2, and posted zero growth on the year.Read full article... Read full article...
Saturday, August 09, 2008
The Fast Disappearing U.S. Middle Class / Economics / US Stock Markets
By: Jennifer_Barry
I've been concerned about the state of the U.S. economy for several years, but only recently has mainstream America started waking up to the severity of the crisis. Even the depths of the Dow bear market in 2003 didn't engender this much pessimism. At the time, most people still believed that stocks would go up in the long run, and it was time to scoop up the bargains. Read full article... Read full article...
Friday, August 08, 2008
American Dream Optimism in Denial of Inflation and Slumping Economy / Economics / US Economy
By: Peter_Schiff
In holding overnight rates steady at 2% this week, the Fed once again put forth its belief that despite a cascade of horrific financial data, the economy was likely to continue to grow slowly and that inflation would moderate. Although wrong on both counts, this view is consistent with the relative optimism that prevails across the country. After nearly two decades of an uninterrupted consumption binge, most Americans simply refuse to believe that anything can seriously derail the American economy. It's a pleasant dream, but the wakeup call can't be too far off. Read full article... Read full article...
Friday, August 08, 2008
Rising Inflation Ensures Stock Markets Headed for More Distress / Economics / Inflation
By: Joseph_Brusuelas
The enthusiastic response of the market to the moderation in the price of imported oil and the Fed monetary statement is a bit overdone. It is based on the hope that inflation will moderate rather than a hard-nosed look at the pricing environment. Our Senior Economic advisor Bill Poole, who knows more than a bit about crafting a coherent Fed statement, reminded the market recently that since August 2006 the FOMC in one way or another has been signaling that they anticipate inflation will moderate in coming quarters. Yet, our core inflation forecast suggests otherwise. Read full article... Read full article...
Thursday, August 07, 2008
US Economic Wealth Last Chance Saloon Rant / Economics / UK Economy
By: Mick_Phoenix
What a feckin mess we are in. Yea how the mighty have fallen, whom those that expect wealth see only ruin, how the public will bail out the profligate. Welcome to the incredibly horrible world I have foreseen and how Eggertsson got it so right but how the endgame is so wrong for Joe Public. You think the Mogambo Guru has a deep bunker of absolute denial (MBDBOD)? Well I'll let you into a secret, the fecker is digging wayyyyyy higher in the earths crust than I am. Read full article... Read full article...
Thursday, August 07, 2008
US Soaring Jobless Claims and the "L" Shaped Recession / Economics / US Economy
By: Mike_Shedlock
Implications Of An Overleveraged Consumer For an economy overleveraged on consumer spending the chart could hardly look worse. Yet, it is going to get worse, lots worse. Hiring has stalled, commercial real estate is hitting the skids, vacancy rates at malls are rising, lease rates are dropping. In short, the Shopping Center Economic Model Is History .
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Thursday, August 07, 2008
German Manufacturing Hit by Crumbling Eurozone Economy / Economics / Euro-Zone
By: Victoria_Marklew
Midst a steady drumbeat of weak-to-negative economic news out of the Euro-zone in the past few days, there was one report today that gives particular cause for concern - German manufacturing orders. Germany has been the 'zone's economic powerhouse in the past few quarters, continuing to see steady-to-strong GDP growth even as demand and output started to weaken, or even outright slide, in France, Italy, and Spain. However, falling demand from the neighbors is starting to take a toll. Read full article... Read full article...
Monday, August 04, 2008
How Washington is Fooling You: Manipulated Employment Data / Economics / Market Manipulation
By: Mike_Stathis
Shell Game - The government and related agencies are responsible for reporting the nation's economic data. Thus, they're in the driver's seat to manipulate this data, while dumping so much of it onto consumers that they can't possibly analyze what's really going on. Each day, “critical” economic numbers are released by one or more agencies connected to Washington . And consumers look to Wall Street and the media to make heads or tails of this data. Of course, Wall Street is always going to paint a rosier picture for its own benefit. Meanwhile, the mainstream media merely serves as a puppet for Wall Street. Read full article... Read full article...
Monday, August 04, 2008
Economic Forecasts and Analysis For US Financial Markets (August 4th- 8th 2008) / Economics / US Economy
By: Joseph_Brusuelas
The FOMC meeting on Wednesday and the personal income/spending report on Monday will shape the upcoming week in US financial markets. Other first tier data to be published during the upcoming week will be the ISM non-manufacturing reports on Tuesday, jobless claims on Thursday and non-farm productivity/unit labor cost report on Friday. The week will see another five days of plentiful earnings reports. Of the large number of firms reporting the releases by AMBAC, MBIA, Freddie Mac and Proctor and Gamble all retain the capacity to move the markets. Due to the FOMC meeting, there will be no Fed speak on during the week of August 4-8 Read full article... Read full article...
Sunday, August 03, 2008
Commodities Keel Over as US Heads for Prolonged Recession / Economics / Recession 2008 - 2010
By: Prieur_du_Plessis
As oil prices seesawed through the past week, fresh uncertainty about the outlook for the beleaguered financial sector triggered another wave of volatility in financial markets.
With the exception of Friday, crude prices closed each day with a gain or loss of more than 1%, with US stocks doing likewise as sentiment waxed and waned on the back of a barrage of economic and corporate earnings reports. Economic data were mixed, whereas earnings were mostly better than feared. After all the action, the S&P 500 Index closed the week virtually unchanged, posting a small gain of 0.2%.
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Saturday, August 02, 2008
Payrolls and Unemployment Data Confirm US In Recession / Economics / Recession 2008 - 2010
By: Paul_L_Kasriel
Civilian Unemployment Rate: 5.7% in July vs. 5.5% in June; cycle low is 4.4% in March 2007
Payroll Employment: -51,000 in July vs. -51,000 in June, net gain of 26,000 jobs after revisions of payroll estimates for May and June.
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Friday, August 01, 2008
Silver and Monetary Considerations of Hyperinflation / Economics / Stagflation
By: David_Morgan
Many of you are probably too young to appreciate the full impact of the hyperinflation in Germany after WW1. It was devastating. This picture shows you the amount of paper that was equal to one silver dollar, or ¾ of one troy ounce of fine silver. After seven years of constantly accelerating inflation, the mark is finally stabilized at the rate of over 4 trillion to a U.S. dollar. The black market rate, however, was an incredible 12 trillion to the dollar at this time. The pre-inflation exchange rate for the mark was by contrast a modest 4.2 to the U.S. dollar. Can anyone say Hyperinflation? Read full article... Read full article...
Friday, August 01, 2008
US Jobs Decline for 7th Month, Deep Revisions to Bad Data / Economics / US Economy
By: Mike_Shedlock
Before taking a look at the monthly jobs data, let's take a look at weekly claims. The US Department of Labor is reporting Initial Unemployment Insurance Claims continue to rise.
Seasonally Adjusted
In the week ending July 26, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 448,000, an increase of 44,000 from the previous week's revised figure of 404,000. The 4-week moving average was 393,000, an increase of 11,000 from the previous week's revised average of 382,000.
Friday, August 01, 2008
Bank Bailouts and Weak Economy Ensure Worsening US Budget Deficit / Economics / US Economy
By: Joseph_Brusuelas
The mid-session review of the federal budget released during the past week saw the White House revise its outlook for the deficit towards nominal highs. The administration is forecasting that the deficit will come in at $389 billion in 2008 and the 2009 deficit should arrive at $482 billion.
The provisional estimate is a snapshot of current spending plans that does not take into account the emerging economic reality. This year seven banks have failed, which may be a grim preview of the forthcoming problems among regional and second-tier banks. The economic slowdown has generated tax receipts through the first nine months of fiscal 2008 equal to 17.9% of GDP, which is less than the 40-year average.
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Friday, August 01, 2008
What's the Real Rate of Inflation? / Economics / Inflation
By: HRA_Advisory
There is a debate building around inflation. The outcome of this debate will determine the direction of interest rates and credit creation. By extension many commodity prices, especially precious metals and energy, will get direction too.
This past week saw the release of the US CPI reading for June with a “headline” increase of 1.1%. Even the much derided “no heat-no eat” Core Rate that excludes food and fuel was up 0.3% for the month. The 12-month CPI gain in the US is now 5%, and even a sustained pullback in oil prices won't cause consumer inflation to retrench much this year.
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