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Market Oracle FREE Newsletter

Analysis Topic: Economic Trends Analysis

The analysis published under this topic are as follows.

Economics

Saturday, July 16, 2011

Social Security's Impact on the Federal Budget Deficit / Economics / Government Spending

By: Paul_L_Kasriel

For a number of years, net contributions to Social Security exceeded benefit payments. These surpluses were transferred to the Treasury's general fund in exchange for an IOU from the Treasury to be called at a time when the net contributions to Social Security became less than the benefit payments. That time arrived in 2009 when net contributions were $8.2 billion less than benefit payments.

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Economics

Saturday, July 16, 2011

Growth in Net Federal Outlays / Economics / Government Spending

By: Paul_L_Kasriel

The 12-month cumulative total of net federal outlays in June 2011 was up 3.28% from the 12-month cumulative total in June 2010. From December 1955 through June 2011, the median change in the 12-month cumulative total of net federal outlays from year-ago month has been 6.64%.

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Economics

Friday, July 15, 2011

U.S. Q2 Retail Sales Suggest Mild Gain in Consumer Spending / Economics / US Economy

By: Asha_Bangalore

Retail sales rose only 0.1% during June after a revised 0.1% drop in May.  The tally of retail sales for the second quarter shows a significant deceleration in the second quarter (+4.4%) after a 10.5% annualized gain in the first quarter, which partly reflects the vast swings of gasoline prices.  Auto sales advanced 0.8% in June according to today's retail sales report, which is different from the unit sales data for June (11.5 million units vs. 11.8 million units in May). 

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Economics

Friday, July 15, 2011

Economic Stimulus Shock: Unemployment “Boost” Ending / Economics / Economic Stimulus

By: Dr_Jeff_Lewis

Economics has been declared the “dismal science,” one in which there are very few opportunities to test the real world outcome of varying decisions made at a high level.  Today, the study of economics may be dismal for other reasons: the boost from unemployment benefits and other stimulus programs will soon run out.

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Economics

Thursday, July 14, 2011

The Greater Economic Depression Is Upon Us / Economics / Great Depression II

By: David_Galland

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleThe phrase “Greater Depression” was coined by Doug Casey a decade or so back as a way of describing the economic crisis he foresaw as inevitable, and which is now materializing.

Because I think it is important for every organization to constantly challenge its own assumptions, I’ve long acted as something of a devil’s advocate here at Casey Research. By constantly pushing our analysts to revisit their assumptions and calculations, it is my firm intention for us to spot the fork in the road that indicates it is time to shift strategies away from investments designed to do well in the face of a currency debasement and to something else.

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Economics

Wednesday, July 13, 2011

China Economic Marvel Continues / Economics / China Economy

By: Jenson

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleChina declared the second quarter performance. The summary data points are presented in charts. The impression continues to be that China has maintained its high growth and there are no indications of a crash landing.

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Economics

Wednesday, July 13, 2011

The Disintegrating U.S. Economic Recovery / Economics / Economic Recovery

By: John_Kozy

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleThe word 'recover' always has the connotation of "getting back." But who is going to get back what when the economy "recovers"? Few at most. So what does an economic recovery look like? No one knows. The word 'recovery' can not be applied to objects willy-nilly. A sick person goes into the hospital to recover; a broken automobile is taken to a shop to be repaired. Automobiles do not recover. Neither do economies; they can only get better or worse, and specific information is needed to determine which. Few people realize just how close to the edge of disintegration America is. The Congress meets for one purpose and one purpose alone—to get reelected. The political posturing begins the day after each election, while the nation's problems go unaddressed, and our media aid and abet the posturing. Such is America today. This recession/depression will never "recover." Neither will America.

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Economics

Wednesday, July 13, 2011

This Is Not Economic Recovery, It's the Great Correction / Economics / US Economy

By: Bill_Bonner

The fight for recovery is over. The feds have waved the white flag. Maybe…

The Labor Department came out with the latest employment numbers last week. They were atrocious. Only about a fifth as many new jobs as economists expected. Which shows you three things.

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Economics

Wednesday, July 13, 2011

April's Narrower U.S. Trade Deficit Looks to Have Been a Fluke / Economics / US Economy

By: Paul_L_Kasriel

In price-adjusted terms, the U.S. trade deficit in goods widened by almost $3.9 billion in May compared with its narrowing of $5.7 billion in April. Real U.S. exports of goods decreased 1.5% or $1.5 billion in May. Real U.S. imports of goods increased 1.6% or $2.3 billion. In April, imports contracted by $4.6 billion. This occurred in part because of the interruption in imports from Japan of motor vehicle parts. Imports of Japanese-produced motor vehicle parts rebounded in May and likely did so in June, too (see Chart 2). 

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Economics

Monday, July 11, 2011

June's Abysmal U.S. Jobs Report is Just the Beginning / Economics / Employment

By: Money_Morning

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleKerri Shannon writes: The June jobs report was abysmal - bud sadly it's just the beginning.

After just a few months of modest, stimulus-induced improvement the jobs market is again sliding backwards into a "new normal" characterized by even higher rates of unemployment.

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Economics

Monday, July 11, 2011

Greek Tragedy Goes Global / Economics / Global Debt Crisis

By: Stephen_Lendman

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleAfter Greece's government surrendered to banker occupation, trends analyst Gerald Celente told Russia Today that:

America's "economy continues to decline. There's no recovery in sight." Across Europe in Greece, Britain and elsewhere, people are reacting against forced austerity to assure bankers get paid.

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Economics

Monday, July 11, 2011

Main Street America's Great Depression Continues / Economics / Great Depression II

By: Stephen_Lendman

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleFriday's jobs report threw more cold water on so-called recovery. Since 2008, Main Street America's been in Depression.

Conditions have worsened, not improved, because of force-fed austerity, not badly needed stimulus to create jobs, reemploy people, and revive real economic growth, not the illusory kind since the National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) officially declared June 2009 the end of recession.

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Economics

Monday, July 11, 2011

Staring Down China's Inflation Dragon / Economics / Inflation

By: EconMatters

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleChina’s inflation jumped to its highest in three years with consumer price index (CPI) surging 6.4% year-over-year in June (See Chart Below). The spike has been fueled by escalating food prices despite that the central bank’s effort to tame inflation by pushing up the RRR (Reserve Requirement Ratio) for commercial banks six times this year, while raising interest rates five times since September, most recently on July 6.

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Economics

Monday, July 11, 2011

Will China Economy Boom Turn into Doom? / Economics / China Economy

By: Jenson

Diamond Rated - Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleAs china chugs along non stop, it may just be that time of the year where we wait and introspect on the great juggernaut. Does the data point to any chinks in the armor? Do we see the economy crash landing with all the hikes priced in? Some of these questions will be answered as we bring some charts on the Chinese economy. Some charts have June 2011 as a data point while others only map till May 2011. As the data is released, we will update all charts to June 2011.

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Economics

Sunday, July 10, 2011

Has the 120-year Inflation Deflation Cycle Bottomed Early? / Economics / US Economy

By: Clif_Droke

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleIn light of the impressive equities market rally from 2009 through 2011, some are wondering if perhaps the economic long wave has bottomed early. I recently received an email asking a question that is relevant to our discussion. He writes, "Suppose the big 120-year cycle hit a few years early, which for a cycle this long would certainly be possible. Perhaps the March 2009 low was the deflationary 120-year cycle low point, and the bull market just carries on for several more years. Is this possible?"

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Economics

Sunday, July 10, 2011

Abysmal June Employment Figures Warn of Great Depression Ahead / Economics / Great Depression II

By: Robert_McHugh_PhD

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleThe June Jobs numbers were horrendous, just like May's were, telling us the QE2 strategy of the Fed has failed, and the Central Planners' policy to keep taxes high, and not significantly cut them or rebate them has failed. There is so much focus on making sure the rich get properly taxed that true economic stimulus is paralyzed. QE was false economic stimulus. Trillions of new dollars were printed, however there was no effective delivery system in place to move that money to households, where the real economy begins. Wall Street got the cash, bid up the price of commodities with that cash, and inflation rose. That was about it.

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Economics

Sunday, July 10, 2011

What Happened to the Jobs? So How's That Stimulus Thing Working Out? / Economics / Employment

By: John_Mauldin

Diamond Rated - Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleThe US jobs report came out this morning, and it was simply dismal. This week we look at not only the jobs report but also "what-if" proffers for the US and global economies. There's a lot to cover, so let's jump in.

First, there were only 18,000 jobs created in June, the lowest since September 2010. While private employment rose by 57,000, government workers dropped by 39,000, continuing a trend as governments at all levels work to cut their budgets. Long-time readers know I think it is important to look at the direction of the revisions, and we got no help. May was revised down by 29,000 jobs and April a further down 15,000.

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Economics

Saturday, July 09, 2011

U.S. June Jobs Report, Weak Labor Market Casts Shadow on Economic Growth / Economics / Employment

By: Asha_Bangalore

Diamond Rated - Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleCivilian Unemployment Rate: 9.2% in June vs. 9.1% in May. Cycle high for recession is 10.1% in October 2009.

Payroll Employment: +18,000 in June vs. +25,000 in May. Private sector jobs increased 57,000 after a gain of 73,000 in May.

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Economics

Saturday, July 09, 2011

U.S. Jobs Report Rains On Soft Spot Hopes! / Economics / US Economy

By: Sy_Harding

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleThe Labor Department’s employment report on Friday pretty much took the hope out of Washington and Wall Street’s expectations that the economic slowdown in the first half of the year was just a soft spot that will quickly be replaced by strong growth in the current quarter and second half.

The economy slowed to only 1.8% growth in the 1st quarter and economic reports have been even more dismal since, to say nothing of the Fed’s QE2 stimulus program having expired at the end of June.

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Economics

Friday, July 08, 2011

U.S. Payroll Stunner, Full "Pathetic" Jobs Report Analysis / Economics / Employment

By: Mike_Shedlock

Diamond Rated - Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleThoughts on the Jobs Report

Last month I commented things are awful at first glance and simply bad beneath the surface. This month things took a huge turn for the worse.

Three months ago I commented "It is very questionable if this pace of jobs keeps up." Clearly it didn't, for the second straight disastrous month. Certainly this cannot all be blamed on the Tsunami in Japan. The entire global economy is slowing rapidly as I have commented numerous times.

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