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Market Oracle FREE Newsletter

Analysis Topic: Economic Trends Analysis

The analysis published under this topic are as follows.

Economics

Thursday, July 07, 2011

U.S. Payrolls, Keeping Things In Perspective / Economics / US Economy

By: Tony_Pallotta

The calls for an economic soft patch are growing louder in the face of the ADP print today above expectations. The 13 weeks of weekly claims above 400,000 is not being dismissed simply not discussed.

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Economics

Thursday, July 07, 2011

Zombie America, How it Happened / Economics / Quantitative Easing

By: Bill_Bonner

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleAmericans had something to celebrate this Independence Day. QE2 – the Feds’ $600 billion money-printing program – ended on Friday. And guess what? The world didn’t end with it.

Instead, the stock market gave a loud “yahoo!” The Dow rose 168 points. If QE2 is going to be the death of the US economy, the stock market doesn’t see it.

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Economics

Thursday, July 07, 2011

Mixed Signals About U.S. Employment Conditions / Economics / Employment

By: Asha_Bangalore

The non-manufacturing ISM survey indicates a slowing of activity, the composite index declined to 53.3 from 54.6 in May. Readings above 50.0 denote an expansion of activity while those below 50.0 indicate a contraction of activity. The index measuring new orders (53.6 vs. 56.8 in May) fell, while the index tracking employment held nearly steady (54.1 vs. 54.0 in May, see Chart 2). The employment index of the manufacturing survey shows an increase (59.9 vs. 58.2 in May)

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Economics

Tuesday, July 05, 2011

U.S. June Employment Report Preview / Economics / Employment

By: Asha_Bangalore

The civilian unemployment rate of 9.1% and tepid growth in payroll employment (see Chart 1) after two years of economic growth remain a key concern. Chart 1 is an indexed chart where the level of employment in June 2009 (the end of the recession) is set equal to 100. Private sector payroll employment has risen past the level seen when the recovery commenced (100.91 in May 2011). The key contributions are from private sector services and factory employment. Government employment (excluding the spike related to temporary hiring for Census 2010) stands close to levels seen in 2007.

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Economics

Tuesday, July 05, 2011

The Chinese Black Swan / Economics / China Economy

By: Vitaliy_Katsenelson

Party rulers in China are trapped in a position that chess players deeply fear — zugzwang — where any move made puts you at disadvantage. In China, the potential cost of both action and inaction is economic collapse.

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Economics

Tuesday, July 05, 2011

Post Nuclear Japan: Atomic Debt / Economics / Japan Economy

By: Andrew_McKillop

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleElectricity cuts and rationing in Japan as it very carefully thinks about the dangers of getting all 49 of its remaining nuclear reactors back up to full charge, and tests all the way before doing it, can be used by nuclear apologists as a "We told you so !" proof that we need nuclear power. But in fact Japan faces things a lot more difficult and challenging, even, than taking a leaf out of Germany and Switzerland's books and starting a total nuclear exit strategy.

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Economics

Monday, July 04, 2011

Turkey Economy Now Growing Faster than China / Economics / Emerging Markets

By: Trader_Mark

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleWhile all the focus is usually on the big emerging (or emerged) markets such as those who are members of BRIC, there are quite a few other interesting stories out there such as Chile, Indonesia, and Turkey.  [July 6, 2010: Turkey - Where East Meets West, and Prospects are Improving]  While there are relatively limited choices to invest in these countries, they are certainly part of a secondary group of locales that are helping to boost the fortunes of U.S. multinationals.

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Economics

Monday, July 04, 2011

College Graduates: Too Many in China, Not Enough in America? / Economics / Education

By: EconMatters

Best Financial Markets Analysis Article"They share every similarity with ants. They live in colonies in cramped areas. They're intelligent and hardworking, yet anonymous and underpaid." ~ Lian Si, Author of “Ant Tribe”

"Ant Tribes" (蟻族), a term coined by sociologist Lian Si, a professor who wrote a book with that title in 2009, broadly describes China’s post-80s generation of "low-income college graduates who live together in communities with poor living standards.”

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Economics

Monday, July 04, 2011

Small Business and the Jobless Economic Recovery / Economics / Economic Recovery

By: Fred_Buzzeo

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleIf we listen to most economists, we are told that the recession is over and we are in a period of recovery. In fact, the National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER), the official voice on this matter, tells us that the recovery began in June 2009.

Fortunately, most Americans focused on making a living see right through this illusion. For example, a recent New York Times/CBS poll indicates that Americans are becoming increasingly disillusioned with the performance of the US economy. An astonishing 70 percent of respondents said that the country is moving in the wrong direction.

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Economics

Saturday, July 02, 2011

U.S. Economy Half Year Review, We Should Be OK, Except... / Economics / US Economy

By: John_Mauldin

Diamond Rated - Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleWe are halfway through the year, and what a ride it has been. Today I will share my thoughts on what the next six months could look like, and endeavor to keep it short and simple, as we have a holiday weekend. There will be more than a few charts. What does the end of QE2 mean? What can we expect from Europe? Is a commodity bubble getting ready to burst? Is it really a bubble? There is a lot to cover.

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Economics

Saturday, July 02, 2011

The U.S. Economy Remains Mired In A Long-term Slump / Economics / Double Dip Recession

By: Mike_Whitney

Best Financial Markets Analysis Article"We have involved ourselves in a colossal muddle, having blundered in the control of a delicate machine, the working of which we do not understand." John Maynard Keynes

Black Tuesday. On October 29, 1929, the stock market crashed triggering the worst economic collapse in history, the Great Depression. Thousands of banks and businesses failed, shanty towns sprung up across the country, and 15 million Americans (25% of the workforce) lost their jobs. President Herbert Hoover, who believed the turmoil would be over in a matter of weeks, opposed providing aid to the needy and unemployed. He supported the same policies as his GOP heirs in Congress today who seek to deepen the present crisis by cutting unemployment benefits, slashing fiscal stimulus and balancing the budget on the backs of workers.

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Economics

Friday, July 01, 2011

United States: Initial Jobless Claims Stuck at an Elevated Level / Economics / Unemployment

By: Asha_Bangalore

Initial jobless claims fell 1,000 to 428,000 during the week ended June 25. The four-week moving average has held around 426,000 since the week ended May 26. Essentially, firms have been unwilling to increase their payrolls. Continuing claims, which lag initial claims by one week, fell 12,000 to 3.702 million. The four-week moving average of continuing claims has held almost steady since April 2011 (see Chart 1).

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Economics

Friday, July 01, 2011

The Great Misdiagnosis of the U.S. Economy, Problem is Insolvency Not Liquidity / Economics / US Debt

By: Jim_Willie_CB

Diamond Rated - Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleImagine a doctor who administers an elaborate treatment for a man suffering from multiple broken bones, joint arthritis, and fallen foot arches. The quack doctor orders massive amounts of liquids as though he has a horrible case of dehydration. The inept doctor also permits unlimited freedom of movement around the hospital and its grounds to the patient, as part of the blunt treatment. The man still cannot walk right or breathe normally, has trouble lifting any significant weight with the arms, and stumbles around from shaky legs. But he has plenty of fluids and freedom to roam, urinating like a race horse. With the heavy mistreatment that is badly off the mark, he has a new problem, diarrhea and bloat together. His doctor is an idiot, incompetent, but still given respect.

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Economics

Wednesday, June 29, 2011

U.S. Consumer Confidence Index Loses Ground / Economics / US Economy

By: Asha_Bangalore

The Conference Board's Consumer Confidence Index dropped to 58.5 in June from 61.7 in the prior month.  The Expectations Index (72.4 vs. 76.6 in May) and the Present Situation Index (37.6 vs. 39.3) fell in June.  The soft labor market situation and rising food energy prices have played a role in reducing optimism of consumers. 

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Economics

Tuesday, June 28, 2011

Economy and the Education Gap / Economics / Education

By: Fred_Sheehan

On June 22, 2011, the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) concluded a two-day meeting. This was followed by the obligatory press release. That statement was followed by a press conference featuring Federal Reserve Chairman Ben S. Bernanke. CNBC, in the person of Maria Baritomo, interviewed three former FOMC members later in the day:

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Economics

Tuesday, June 28, 2011

3-D Economic Hurricane of Debt, Deficits and Demographics Heading for All Developed Economies / Economics / Global Debt Crisis

By: John_Mauldin

Diamond Rated - Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleToday's Outside the Box is from an old friend, but one who is new to my readers. Jason Hsu is a partner at Research Affiliates and helped create the Fundamental Indexes with Rob Arnott. Starting at Cal Tech, he went on to a PhD in economics,and is now a professor at UCLA and teaches in China and Taiwan. Wins all sorts of awards and has won the Rising Star of HedgeFunds award. In short, he is really smart.

He sent me this piece last week, and I asked if I could use it. He graciously acceded. It is on what Jason and Rob call "the3-D Hurricane of Debt, Deficits and Demographics."

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Economics

Tuesday, June 28, 2011

U.S. May Consumer Spending Augurs Poorly for 2011:Q2 / Economics / US Economy

By: Asha_Bangalore

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleReal consumer spending fell 0.13% in May following a downwardly revised 0.06% drop in the prior month.  Rising gasoline prices have adversely affected consumer spending; purchases of gasoline (nominal) declined in May, the first decline since November.  Purchases of cars have dropped for three consecutive months, reflecting the supply chain problem from the natural disaster in Japan that has reduced the availability of cars (see Chart 2). 

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Economics

Monday, June 27, 2011

Can the Fed and Economists Forecast the Future? / Economics / Forecasts & Technical Analysis

By: EWI

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleBusiness Talk Radio host Gabriel Wisdom recently spoke with Pete Kendall, Co-Editor of EWI's Elliott Wave Financial Forecast. Their discussion included a crucial but rarely asked question about economists and the Federal Reserve. Here's the relevant excerpt: 

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Economics

Monday, June 27, 2011

Inflation Asides / Economics / Inflation

By: Fred_Sheehan

A note from a reader: In 1977 I accidentally ran into a high school friend of mine who had taken an advanced degree in mathematics and statistical analysis. He was working for [Federal Reserve Chairman Arthur] Burn's Fed. He informed me that he was working on a new methodology of calculating the inflation rate. When I asked what it was based on he demurred saying it was "Classified Secret." I was truly stunned. He did imply that, when done, the new methodology would greatly reduce the reported value. Sure enough, during the Volcker Fed, the new methodology was introduced and has been modified since then to greatly reduce the reported numbers. It made the Volcker effort at controlling inflation seem much more effective than it actually was.

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Economics

Monday, June 27, 2011

Deflation by Dictatorship / Economics / Deflation

By: Clif_Droke

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleThere are two major considerations for the nation's economic and financial health as we enter the second half of 2011. Each can be addressed in the form of a question: 1.) Will the Federal Reserve embark on a third attempt at stimulating economic recovery through money printing; and 2.) Has the cyclical bull market that began in March 2009 peaked, and further, what will happen to the financial market once the 6-year cycle peaks in October? We'll attempt to answer both of these questions in the following commentary.

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