Analysis Topic: Economic Trends Analysis
The analysis published under this topic are as follows.
Saturday, September 24, 2011
Dr Doom Roubini and Soros Say The U.S. Already in A Double Dip Recession / Economics / Double Dip Recession
By: EconMatters
Dr. Doom Roubini has grown even more pessimistic since he put a 60% probability of a U.S. double dip in 2012 just about three weeks ago. Business Day reported that speaking at a press conference in Johannesburg on Sep. 20, Roubini now says, "The US is already in a recession although it will not admit it." and that the rest of the world would not be insulated from the effects of another global meltdown. (Clip Below)
Friday, September 23, 2011
Freedom and Economic Growth in the Poorest Countries / Economics / Emerging Markets
By: MISES
Ken Zahringer writes: I just finished the first draft of a paper exploring some of the factors influencing economic growth in poor countries. I put together a sample of 37 countries that were at the bottom of the income scale in 1970 and traced their economic performance over the ensuing 40 years, trying to discern some of the reasons for the differences in growth among countries. One of the measures I used was the Fraser Institute's Economic Freedom (EF) Index. The following simple table speaks volumes about why some countries prosper and others don't. (The chart divisions allow class mobility.)
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Wednesday, September 21, 2011
Deflation, What You Can do to Survive the Economic Depression / Economics / Deflation
By: EWI
Governments across the world have adopted "Quantitative Easing" aka "Printing Money" to fight against Deflation that was threatening to push global economies into a downward deflationary spiral towards a prolonged period of economic depression. The question now is will printing money coupled with ZERO interest rates work ?
Money printing in the first instance takes the form of governments instructing their respective central banks to buy government bonds in an effort to artificially drive longer term interest rates lower and fund huge budget deficits and therefore artificially stimulate economic activity.
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Wednesday, September 21, 2011
Why the IMF's Warnings About Slower Growth for the U.S. and Europe Will Be Ignored / Economics / Global Economy
By: Money_Morning
David Zeiler writes:
In lowering its growth forecast for the United States and Europe, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) warned of "severe repercussions" unless drastic measures are taken soon.
But don't expect the warning to spawn any real action.
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Wednesday, September 21, 2011
China's Economic Growth Won't Last; Chanos on Chinese Property Bubble and Growth / Economics / China Economy
By: Mike_Shedlock
Fund manager Jim Chanos spoke to Bloomberg TV’s Carol Massar about China's economy, debt and real estate market.
Chanos said that growth in China may be zero and that China has “European kind of numbers” when it comes to debt.
Wednesday, September 21, 2011
The Case for Hyperinflation in the US / Economics / HyperInflation
By: Jeff_Berwick
Earlier this month, Gary North penned an article on LewRockwell.com entitled, "Mass Inflation, Yes; Hyperinflation, No".
In it he stated the following:
"The United States is not going to get hyperinflation unless Congress nationalizes the Federal Reserve System.
It will get mass inflation at some point: anywhere from 15% per annum to 30%. But it is not going to get 50% or 100% or more.
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Tuesday, September 20, 2011
Bursting of the Debt Bubble, Evaporation of Wealth on a Vast Scale / Economics / Deflation
By: EWI
The bursting of the "debt bubble" which started in 2008 is far from over. It's the financial story of our age and it's happening before our eyes. The full scope is hard to keep up with because it's unfolding at various levels. The top level is the sovereign debt crisis:
Tuesday, September 20, 2011
Fed is Measuring U.S. Economic Health by the Wrong Number / Economics / US Economy
By: Vitaliy_Katsenelson
Mark Twain once said, “To a man with a hammer, everything looks like a nail.” To the Federal Reserve — an institution employing an army of economists and academics — everything looks like an economic problem that needs to be quantitatively eased. As a result, the Fed is killing the economy.
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Monday, September 19, 2011
Another Round Of Consumer Price Increases On The Way / Economics / Inflation
By: Clif_Droke
The ongoing economic depression has the middle class behind the proverbial eight ball. Not only has it resulted in the deflation of housing values but the stimulus efforts of the last two years have resulted in increased retail prices. This is one of the important signs that the depression has a lot longer to run, for until we see a substantial drop in consumer prices deflation's work isn't done.
Sunday, September 18, 2011
World's Declining, Graying Population Doesn't Spell Economic Growth / Economics / Demographics
By: Bill_Bonner
The Lehman bankruptcy was a much more important event than 9/11. It marked the end of a 60-year credit expansion. Maybe it marked the high water mark for the US Empire, too. And the beginning of the end for the US dollar-based world monetary system.
But the occasion went by yesterday without much notice.
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Sunday, September 18, 2011
Paymaster Germany and the Endgame Back to the 1930's? / Economics / Global Debt Crisis
By: Gary_North
I did a Google search for "paymaster Germany." I got over 34,000 hits. They refer mostly to the Eurozone crisis over Greek government debt, and the German government's willingness to tax Germans in order to keep bailing out the Greek government.
I got the phrase from a pro-gold standard German economist, Paul C. Martin. He wrote a book with this title in 1991. Its subtitle is as relevant today as it was two decades ago: "Thus they dissipate our money." When he wrote "they," he meant "German politicians." The phrase has stuck. It is correctly being applied to the on-going program of the Merkel government to provide fresh injections of government money – taxpayers' money – into the Greek government, so that the government can pay 70% per annum to investors.
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Sunday, September 18, 2011
Global Systemic Crisis: Implosive Fusion of Global Financial Assets, Worst Ahead / Economics / Credit Crisis 2011
By: LEAP
As anticipated by LEAP/E2020 since November 2010, and often repeated up to June 2011, the second half of 2011 has started with a sudden and major relapse of the crisis. Nearly USD 10 trillion of the USD 15 trillion in ghost assets announced in GEAB N°56 have already gone up in smoke. The rest (and probably much more) will vanish in the fourth quarter of 2011, which will be marked by what our team calls "the implosive fusion of global financial assets". It’s the two major global financial centers, Wall Street in New York and the City of London, which will be the "preferred reactors" of this fusion. And, as predicted by LEAP/E2020 for several months, it’s the solution to the public debt problems in some Euroland countries which will enable this reaction to reach critical mass, after which nothing is controllable; but the bulk of the fuel that will drive the reaction and turn it into a real global shock (1) is found in the United States. Since July 2011 we have only started on the process that led to this situation: the worst is ahead of us and very close!
Saturday, September 17, 2011
Global Imperatives of a Chinese Exporter / Economics / China Economy
By: Ashvin_Pandurangi
Here are the two simple "equations" that all of the incessant rumor-inspired momentum chasers, equity bulls, peripheral EU bond bulls and relentless predictors of an imminent global Asia-backed bailout would do well to memorize:
1) Export Economy = Relatively Weak Currency
2) Chinese Economy = Export Economy
Friday, September 16, 2011
Not Made in America at the Root of U.S. Economic Crisis / Economics / Protectionism
By: Richard_Mills
Government attempts to inflate the money supply and stimulate growth through quantitative easing have failed, so far, because they gave the stimulus to banks, not directly to their citizens - stimulation will only work if the cash is spent:
- Giving the money to bankers is the equivalent to burying it - banks used the money to shore up their balance sheets and do not loan it out
- Consumers are already buried in debt and facing mass layoffs so taking on yet more debt by borrowing more money from the banks is not an option
Thursday, September 15, 2011
U.S. Economy Suffers Lost Decade, The Great Middle Class Poverty / Economics / US Economy
By: EconMatters
In yet another sign that the Great Recession cuts deep and long--the number of Americans living below the official poverty line reached 46.2 million, the highest in 52 years since the Census Bureau started tracking the figures in 1959.
The overall poverty rate also climbed to a 17-year high at 15.1%, which means 1 in 6 Americans are living below poverty line largely due to the high unemployment and underemployment rate. The official poverty line for 2010 is defined as an annual income of $22,314 for a family of four, and $11,139 for an individual.
Wednesday, September 14, 2011
China's Biggest Bubble Warning Ever / Economics / China Economy
By: Justice_Litle
When the Japan bubble peaked in the late 1980s, there were major warning signs. The same is happening in China too...
It's the biggest and clearest sign yet: China is a giant bubble waiting to burst.
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Wednesday, September 14, 2011
Universal Personal Bankruptcy to Save America's Economy? / Economics / US Debt
By: Gary_North
I have just read the most monumentally stupid article in the history of financial journalism. Nothing else I have ever read comes anywhere near it. It is not just stupid. It is magnificently stupid. It is something so incomparably stupid that Paul Krugman could only dream of writing something like it.
It was written by Brett Arends.
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Tuesday, September 13, 2011
U.S. Government Caught Killing American Jobs, Destruction by Design / Economics / Employment
By: Jared_Levy
A Note from Editor Jared Levy: At a time when job creation is front and center, and on an evening when our president vowed to bring jobs back into our economy, I learned of disturbing news.
An old friend of mine who used to trade with me on the floor of the Philadelphia Stock Exchange called me, outraged, after learning about the U.S. government's destruction of an American legend.
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Tuesday, September 13, 2011
Bernanke's Economic Hubris Leads to Depression / Economics / Great Depression II
By: Douglas_French
Grasping for reasons why his multiple QEs and Fed balance-sheet-bursting policies haven't spurred economic activity, Dr. Bernanke posited a new diagnosis last week in Minneapolis. "Consumers are depressed beyond reason or expectation," the New York Times paraphrased the Fed chief as saying.
Tuesday, September 13, 2011
Zombie Banks Stop Their Blood Feast is the Only Road to Economic Renaissance / Economics / Credit Crisis Bailouts
By: Bill_Bonner
It would be almost laughably easy to bring a real renaissance in the US.
But first you have to understand the real problem. It’s not a lack of stimulus… Or, the inequality of income distribution… Or because the feds didn’t regulate enough. Or that bankers are greedy…or that capitalism won’t work.
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