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Market Oracle FREE Newsletter

Analysis Topic: Economic Trends Analysis

The analysis published under this topic are as follows.

Economics

Monday, June 27, 2011

Inflation Asides / Economics / Inflation

By: Fred_Sheehan

A note from a reader: In 1977 I accidentally ran into a high school friend of mine who had taken an advanced degree in mathematics and statistical analysis. He was working for [Federal Reserve Chairman Arthur] Burn's Fed. He informed me that he was working on a new methodology of calculating the inflation rate. When I asked what it was based on he demurred saying it was "Classified Secret." I was truly stunned. He did imply that, when done, the new methodology would greatly reduce the reported value. Sure enough, during the Volcker Fed, the new methodology was introduced and has been modified since then to greatly reduce the reported numbers. It made the Volcker effort at controlling inflation seem much more effective than it actually was.

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Economics

Monday, June 27, 2011

Deflation by Dictatorship / Economics / Deflation

By: Clif_Droke

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleThere are two major considerations for the nation's economic and financial health as we enter the second half of 2011. Each can be addressed in the form of a question: 1.) Will the Federal Reserve embark on a third attempt at stimulating economic recovery through money printing; and 2.) Has the cyclical bull market that began in March 2009 peaked, and further, what will happen to the financial market once the 6-year cycle peaks in October? We'll attempt to answer both of these questions in the following commentary.

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Economics

Sunday, June 26, 2011

Chinese Economy Sputtering, Where Did the Trade Surplus Go? / Economics / China Economy

By: Washingtons_Blog

Diamond Rated - Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleIt was tempting to believe that China was different. With its command and control economy with some of the trappings of free market capitalism, trillions in reserves, and abundant natural resources, many thought that China would "decouple" from the Western world's problems and sail into a prosperous future. However, despite its long history, exotic names and seemingly strong position, China cannot avoid the rules of economics which have applied to all countries throughout history.

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Economics

Saturday, June 25, 2011

Greece Debt Crisis Long-term Solution E.U. Unification Under One Leader? / Economics / Euro-Zone

By: James_Loong

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleAs Papandreou, Greek PM, plans to put together another austerity package worth more than €6.5 billion ($9.3 billion) by the end of the month, the protesters outside the parliament building, unwilling to accept the prime minister’s course of action, shouted: “Thieves, traitors. What happened to our money?”

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Economics

Friday, June 24, 2011

U.S. Jobless Claims, Firms Remain Reluctant to Increase Payrolls / Economics / Unemployment

By: Asha_Bangalore

Initial jobless claims rose 9,000 to 429,000 during the week ended June 18. The four-week moving average held steady at 426,250.  Continuing claims, which lag initial jobless claims by one week, fell slightly to 3.697 million from 3.698 million people.  The four-week moving average of continuing claims edged down to 3.709 million from 3.714 million.

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Economics

Friday, June 24, 2011

U.S. Dollar Repatriation and Inflation / Economics / Inflation

By: Jeff_Lewis

It’s starting to look like the corporate world will soon get another pass from Congress on paying its international tax bill.  Last proposed and passed in 2005, a dollar repatriation holiday would allow companies to bring dollars on overseas back to the United States with only a 5.25% tax rate.

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Economics

Thursday, June 23, 2011

Stealth QE3 Comes to Fruition, Soaring Inflation is Next / Economics / Inflation

By: Money_Morning

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleDavid Zeiler writes: U.S. Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke did what most everyone expected yesterday (Wednesday) at the culmination of the Federal Open Market Committee's (FOMC) two-day meeting - he left average Americans vulnerable to the pangs of higher prices and soaring inflation.

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Economics

Thursday, June 23, 2011

U.S. Horrific National Debt, Are You Prepared For The Coming Economic Collapse And The Next Great Depression? / Economics / US Debt

By: Chris_Kitze

Diamond Rated - Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleMichael Synder writes: It really is hard to find the words to describe the true horror of the national debt. The U.S. government has been on the greatest debt binge in all of human history, and a day of reckoning is coming that is going to be so painful that it is going to shock America to the core. We have lived so far above our means for so long that none of us really has any concept of what "normal" is like anymore. The United States has enjoyed the greatest party in the history of the world, but now this decades-old party is ending and the bills are coming due. It was Dick Cheney who famously said that "deficits don't matter". Well, try telling that to the nation of Greece right about now. The horror that Greece is just beginning to experience is a preview of what is going to happen to us as well. Only when it happens to us it is going to be so much worse, because when we go down we are going to bring the entire global financial system down with us.

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Economics

Wednesday, June 22, 2011

Europe and America and the The Global Debt Crisis / Economics / Global Debt Crisis

By: LEAP

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleOn December 15, 2010, in the GEAB N°50, LEAP/E2020 anticipated the explosion of Western government debt (1) in the second half of 2011. We were then describing a process that would start with the European government debt crisis and then set fire to the heart of the global financial system, namely US federal debt (2). And here we are with this issue at the start of the second half of 2011, with a global economy in complete disarray (3), an increasingly unstable global monetary system (4) and financial centres in desperate straits (5), all this despite the thousands of billions of public money invested to avoid precisely this type of situation. The insolvency of the global financial system, and of the Western financial system in the first place, returns again to the front of the stage after just over a year of political cosmetics aimed at burying this fundamental problem under truckloads of cash.

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Economics

Tuesday, June 21, 2011

Stocks, Demographics, Sovereign Debt and Global Food Prices Economic Report / Economics / Global Economy

By: John_Mauldin

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleThis week's Outside the Box is from one of the more interesting thinkers and observers of the markets I know, Simon Hunt. When we get together in London, conversations are lively, as we don't always see eye to eye; but we can always discuss, in a very civil manner, the affairs of the world. This particular piece is wide-ranging and thought-provoking. Simon is always ready to apply actual times to his predictions, and he has held steady on them for years.

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Economics

Monday, June 20, 2011

U.S. Economy 2011 Mid Year Forecast Update / Economics / US Economy

By: Mike_Stathis

Diamond Rated - Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleThe story remains pretty much unchanged relative to what I have been discussing over the past several months.

Throughout our research publications I have been pointing to the impressive earnings from U.S. corporations. I have also noted numerous upward revisions in 2011 EPS, which of course implies a higher stock market. As a consequence, I have been bullish throughout this, as well as over the previous year. At the same time, I discussed my expectations of a weaker economy in the second half of the year.

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Economics

Monday, June 20, 2011

How An Economy Collapses / Economics / Great Depression II

By: Dr_Martenson

Diamond Rated - Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleChris Martenson: Welcome to another ChrisMartenson.com podcast. I am Chris Martenson your host today as usual. Today we’re speaking with Fernando “FerFAL” Aguirre author of Surviving the Economic Collapse. FerFAL experienced the hyperinflationary destruction of Argentina’s economy in 2001 and has since dedicated his professional career, like I have, to educating the public about his experiences and observations of its lingering aftermath. Given the rising concerns that we all have today about the future of fiat currencies, our listeners are increasingly asking to hear from voices that have firsthand experience with extreme currency devaluation, what it means, how it actually feels, how it plays out. So we’re very fortunate FerFAL is able to join us today from his home in Argentina. We’re going to be discussing the signs that preceded the collapse in his country and what has defined the society since, including smart moves to take if worried about a similar fate happened in one’s own country and how would you know where you are in the story as it unfolds. So FerFAL, we’re so glad to have you with us today.

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Economics

Sunday, June 19, 2011

How to Protect Yourself From the Debt Crisis Second Recession / Economics / Global Debt Crisis

By: Videos

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleJim Rogers On The Ratigan Show, Tells Viewers To Get Ready To Protect Themselves.

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Economics

Sunday, June 19, 2011

U.S. Economic Contraction And The Pending Greek Debt Default / Economics / Global Debt Crisis

By: Tony_Pallotta

This week saw further confirmation of a deteriorating US economy as both the Empire State and Philly Fed surveys continued their reversals and showed outright contraction. What was viewed by many as a soft patch indeed is much deeper.

Additionally retail sales contracted showing the consumer to be weaker than economists and markets had predicted. Of the four GDP components the consumer was the only one showing strength yet as witnessed by the Q1 GDP revision they in fact are not strong.

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Economics

Saturday, June 18, 2011

Market Assessment of Inflation Has Changed / Economics / Inflation

By: Asha_Bangalore

The core Consumer Price Index (CPI), which excludes food and energy, increased 0.3% in May from the previous month and moved up 1.5% on a year-over-year basis and which leaves the Fed less comfortable than it has been in the past few months. 

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Economics

Saturday, June 18, 2011

U.S. Index of Leading Economic Indicators Suggests Mild Growth / Economics / Economic Recovery

By: Asha_Bangalore

The Conference Board's Index of Leading Indicators (LEI) increased 0.8% in May after a 0.4% drop in April.  The year-over-year change of the LEI in the second quarter (April-May average) moved up 5.00% after advancing 5.5% in the prior quarter.  The recent peak of the year-to-year change of the LEI was 10% in the first quarter of 2010.  The year-to-year change of the index since the early months of 2010 has maintained a decelerating trend, implying that only a mildly positive pace of economic growth is likely in the quarters ahead. 

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Economics

Friday, June 17, 2011

More Signs That Society Is Collapsing / Economics / Great Depression II

By: Submissions

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleEconomic Collapse writes: What we are now witnessing is the slow motion unraveling of America.  Our economy is dying, the American people have lost faith in the government and in almost all of our other major institutions, and our society is collapsing.  Most Americans don't understand why all of this is happening, but most of them do realize that something has fundamentally changed.  Earlier this year, McDonald's held a "National Hiring Day" and a million Americans showed up to apply for jobs.  Only 62,000 of them were hired.  That means only 6.2% of the applicants got jobs.  So what are we supposed to tell the 93.8% that didn't get hired?  Are they supposed to have any hope for the future when they can't even get a minimum wage job at McDonald's?  When I was a teenager, I went over to McDonald's one day, filled out an application and was instantly hired.  My, how things have changed.  Now we have millions upon millions of young people that are staring directly into a very bleak future.  The level of frustration in this country is rising to frightening levels and large numbers of people are already showing that they will stoop to anything in order to survive.

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Economics

Friday, June 17, 2011

U.S. Mixed Economic Reports, Housing Starts Moved Up, Jobless Claims Declined / Economics / US Economy

By: Asha_Bangalore

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleEconomic reports of the past two days present a mixed picture of underlying economic conditions.  Factory production data excluding autos moved up but factory surveys - Empire State Manufacturing Survey and factory report from the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia--point to a weakening of activity.  The National Association of Home Builders continue to believe that the housing market is in a slump, but today's housing starts data suggest a small turnaround.  Jobless claims numbers point to a small improvement, but the level of jobless claims is elevated.

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Economics

Wednesday, June 15, 2011

U.S. Jobs Market is Headed for a Double-Dip / Economics / Employment

By: Money_Morning

Jason Simpkins writes: After showing some improvement over the past year, the U.S. job market is now beginning a double-dip.

The reason is simple: The number of start-up businesses has hit its lowest level since at least the early 1990s.

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Economics

Wednesday, June 15, 2011

Small Businesses Remain Pessimistic About the Near Term / Economics / US Economy

By: Asha_Bangalore

The survey of the National Federation of Independent Business continues to show a pessimistic outlook about business conditions in the near term.  The Small Business Optimism Index fell to 90.9 in May from 91.2 in the prior month.  It is important to note that the index has fallen for three straight months and the level of the index has failed to move up to levels seen during an expansionary phase of a business cycle.  

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