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Analysis Topic: Economic Trends Analysis

The analysis published under this topic are as follows.

Economics

Tuesday, November 11, 2014

Scary Bank of Japan Goes All In Again - Abenomics 2.0 / Economics / Japan Economy

By: John_Mauldin

Grant Williams writes: Last week, appropriately enough on Halloween, the Bank of Japan did something truly scary.

As shocks go, this one — though it had been fairly well-telegraphed to the markets that something wicked this way might be coming — was in a league of its own.

I’m sure that by now you’re well aware of what Kuroda-san (the Governor of the Bank of Japan) announced to the world; but in case you’re not, here’s a little recap:

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Economics

Tuesday, November 11, 2014

U.S. Jobs - Why Janet Yellen Needs Her Own Magic Show / Economics / US Federal Reserve Bank

By: Don_Miller

What do Siegfried and Roy have in common with Federal Reserve Chairman Janet Yellen?

Shortly after the Bureau of Labor Statistics released unemployment data last month showing that joblessness had dropped below 6% for the first time since the 2008 crash, the Federal Reserve announced it would stop government bond purchases; Quantitative Easing is history.

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Economics

Tuesday, November 11, 2014

Unemployment May Be Down, but Our Future Looks Like a Disaster / Economics / Employment

By: Money_Morning

Shah Gilani writes: Finally, things are better, right?

I’m talking about the Friday employment numbers, not the election.

Though they do have something in common. I’ll get to that.v

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Economics

Tuesday, November 11, 2014

Deflation Rearing its Ugly Head in Subtle and Not-So-Subtle Ways Around the Globe / Economics / Deflation

By: EWI

By Steve Hochberg and Pete Kendall

The following article was adapted with permission from the November 2014 issue of The Elliott Wave Financial Forecast, a publication from Elliott Wave International, the world's largest market forecasting firm. Follow this link for the complete article.

According to the latest figures, deflation is now perched on China's doorstep.

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Economics

Tuesday, November 11, 2014

Deflation Danger - The Last Argument of Central Banks / Economics / Deflation

By: John_Mauldin

For a central banker, deflation is one of the Four Horsemen of the Apocalypse: Death, Famine, Disease, and Deflation. (We will address later in this letter why War, in the form of a currency war, is not in a central banker’s Apocalypse mix.) It is helpful to understand that, before a person is allowed to join the staff or board of a central bank, he or she is taken into a back room and given DNA replacement therapy, inserting a gene that is viscerally opposed to deflation. Of course, in fairness, it must be noted that central bankers don’t like high inflation, either (although, looking around the world, we see that the definition of high inflation can vary). In the developed world, 2% inflation seems to be the common goal. You wouldn’t think that 2% a year is a significant change in the overall price structure, but the panic among economists that would ensue with a 2% price deflation would border on hysteria.

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Economics

Tuesday, November 11, 2014

Are You Expecting A Recession? / Economics / Recession 2015

By: Raul_I_Meijer

The folks at Bloomberg put this piece up today with the intriguing title‘Predictors of ’29 Crash See 65% Chance of 2015 Recession’, and I thought: wait a minute, that’s what people, lots of people, actually think, that there’s going to be recession. While still others will trust Morgan Stanley and Goldman Sachs, who, as the article put it, “posit an expansion that has plenty of room to run.”

For the vast majority of those in the world of finance, and probably in a much wider world, those are the options, because that’s how they think. Either more of the same, or a recession, as we know it in a cyclical sense, where the economic cycle goes up and down but in the end keeps turning up. And where any sudden moves are telegraphed well in advance by monetary authorities for the grace and benefit of them, the investors, so they don’t lose too much and can instead profit at every step, whether it’s up or down.

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Economics

Monday, November 10, 2014

How Macroeconomic Data Encourages Government Intervention / Economics / Government Intervention

By: Frank_Shostak

Frank Shostak writes: It is generally held that for an economist to be able to assess the state of the economy, he requires macroeconomic indicators which will tell him what is going on. The question that arises is this: why is it necessary to know about the state of the overall economy? What purpose can such types of information serve?

Careful examination of these issues shows that in a free market environment it doesn’t make much sense to measure and publish various macroeconomic indicators. This type of information is of little use to entrepreneurs. The only indicator that any successful entrepreneur must pay attention to is whether he makes profit. The higher the profit, the more benefits a particular business activity bestows upon consumers.

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Economics

Monday, November 10, 2014

The Biggest Threat to U.S. Jobs: “The Contestability Nightmare” / Economics / Employment

By: John_Mauldin

Today’s Outside the Box comes from Sam Rines of Chilton Capital Management in Houston, TX – a promising young economics contributor to The National Interest and a rising star who I met at Worth Wray’s wedding a few weeks ago.

Worth and Sam have developed quite the friendship over the past several months, but it didn’t take much convincing from Worth to get me to share Sam’s latest article with you. Sam’s work speaks for itself and I am VERY impressed by his insights on a wide range of economic issues – from the evolution of Fed policy and growing risk of a rising US dollar, to the long-awaited industrialization of India.

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Economics

Monday, November 10, 2014

A World Run On Broken Economic Models / Economics / Global Economy

By: Raul_I_Meijer

As I was writing The Broken Model Of The Eurozone yesterday, I already knew there would have to be a sequel, because doing everything in one go would have been too much. And then, considerably less than two seconds later, it dawned on me that if I wanted to cover broken models and systems, a book would be the very least. But I don’t want to write a book, or, certainly, not here and now. Therefore, the best I think I can do is to sit down and let it flow, train of thought, stream of consciousness, probably the approach that suits me best to begin with.

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Economics

Sunday, November 09, 2014

Why The Theory of Money and Credit Is More important Than Ever / Economics / Economic Theory

By: MISES

Richard Ebeling writes: Eighty years ago, in the autumn of 1934, Ludwig von Mises’s The Theory of Money and Credit first appeared in English. It remains one of the most important books on money and inflation penned in the twentieth century, and even eight decades later, it still offers the clearest analysis and understanding of booms and busts, inflations, and depressions.

Mises insisted that the economic rollercoaster of the business cycle was not caused by any inherent weaknesses or contradictions within the free market capitalist system. Rather, inflationary booms followed by the bust of economic depression or recession had its origin in the control and mismanagement by governments of the monetary and banking system.

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Economics

Sunday, November 09, 2014

Why a Strong U.S. Dollar is the Ultimate Economic Stimulus / Economics / US Dollar

By: Clif_Droke

Earlier this year commodities prices were fairly buoyant thanks in part to strong demand in Asia. The strength didn’t last long, however, and by summer weakness was evident in Europe and China. Global growth slowed considerably in the months leading up to October, when oil plunged below $90/barrel for the first time since 2012. Apart from weakening global demand and the growth of energy supplies (thanks to fracking), the strengthening U.S. dollar has accelerated this trend.

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Economics

Sunday, November 09, 2014

The Broken Model Of The Eurozone Economy / Economics / Euro-Zone

By: Raul_I_Meijer

I stumbled upon these few words in an Ambrose Evans Pritchard article the other day, and they hit me almost like some sort of epiphany, which in turn made me feel a little stupid, because it’s all so obvious. What Ambrose wrote (and this time I’m not making fun of him), was about the eurozone (EMU), of which he said:

The North is competitive. The South is 20% overvalued.

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Economics

Thursday, November 06, 2014

The Errors in Liquidity Preferences / Economics / Economic Theory

By: Frank_Hollenbeck

The theoretical construct of Keynes’s monetary view of the world is known as the liquidity preferences theory of money. This theory is the foundation of many macroeconomic models and stands in stark contrast to the classical view of interest rates, the loanable funds theorem.

Much of Keynes’ work, including this theory, disproportionately elevated the importance of holding cash as a key economic variable. Income can be consumed, saved or held in cash. Consumption is for personal satisfaction. Saving is a transfer of claims on goods and services from consumers to investors. Holding cash, or hoarding, is the equivalent of stuffing money in your mattress.

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Economics

Wednesday, November 05, 2014

Japanese Governments Revenge On Its People / Economics / Japan Economy

By: Raul_I_Meijer

I know I’ve written a lot about Japan lately, and that for some it’s been enough for a while, but still, what happens today under the no longer rising sun is going to have such repercussions worldwide that it would be foolish not to pay attention. Moreover, there’s something about what Bank of Japan Governor Haruhiko Kuroda said this morning that both perfectly and painfully illustrates to what depths, economically as well as morally, the country has sunk.

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Economics

Wednesday, November 05, 2014

Japan's kaput?! / Economics / Japan Economy

By: Axel_Merk

Japan’s economy is down but not yet out. The world’s third largest economy won’t go quietly. Both these statements are merely my opinion, but if you believe there’s a risk that I’m right, you may want to pay attention to what the implications may be.

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