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Analysis Topic: Economic Trends Analysis

The analysis published under this topic are as follows.

Economics

Saturday, April 18, 2015

Inflation, Central Banks, and Business Cycles / Economics / Economic Theory

By: MISES

Jonathan Newman writes: The word “inflation” means different things to different people. One popular conception of inflation focuses on prices  —  all prices, actually. For these people, including some economists, “inflation” means a rise in the general price level, i.e., the goods and services we buy have higher price tags.

The other conception of inflation focuses on the money supply. Economists with this focus think of inflation as an increase in the amount of money in the economy. We’ll see that viewing inflation as a rise in prices can be misleading and ambiguous especially compared to viewing inflation as an increase in the money supply.

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Economics

Tuesday, April 14, 2015

Greece Debt Default and Drachma By End of April? / Economics / Eurozone Debt Crisis

By: GoldCore

- Greek government to withhold IMF payments according to the FT
- Prime Minister Tsipras denies preparing for default according to Reuters
- Government funds to run out by end of month
- Default would likely lead to “Grexit” and return to drachma
- EU may not withstand uncertainty surrounding break-up of monetary union
- Concern could trigger derivatives crisis and ‘Lehman moment’
- Like frogs in a pot of water that is very slowly coming to the boil

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Economics

Tuesday, April 14, 2015

China Margin Debt, Trading Accounts, Construction Equipment / Economics / China Economy

By: Mike_Shedlock

In response to my April 1, post China Margin Debt Soars to Record 1 Trillion Yuan; Another Central Bank Sponsored Bubble I received an email from reader Nicolas.

He writes ...

Hello Mish

Happy Monday. I find your output excellent an I hope that you are flattered that you are followed by private banks is Switzerland.

Quick question on your last note; please can you tell me what (Bloomberg/Reuters) code you use for Chinese Margin debt? i.e. where can I cross-reference the Trillion Yuan figure you quote?

Best regards and many thanks,

Nicolas

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Economics

Monday, April 13, 2015

The U.S. Economic Recovery: True or False? / Economics / US Economy

By: Arkadiusz_Sieron

The stronger than expected February's job market report fueled expectations that the Fed will increase interest rates sooner rather than later. We believed that market reaction was a bit exaggerated, and suggested in the Gold News Monitor not taking the hike for granted. The U.S. recovery is not as strong as it is commonly believed (as it was confirmed by the downgraded Fed's economic projections) and there are many downside risks, such as Greece's crisis, stubbornly low inflation, sluggish wage growth, the Chinese and global slowdown and too strong a greenback, which may stall the Fed's hike.

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Economics

Monday, April 13, 2015

New Credit Crunch Underway: Can Recession Be Far Behind? / Economics / Recession 2015

By: Mike_Shedlock

Credit Crunch Underway

Last week, Alexander Giryavets of Dynamika Capital L.L.C. pinged me with an article he had written on Recessionary Level in Credit Conditions.

His article was based on data from the March Credit Managers' Index by the National Association of Credit Management. The report is pretty damning.

First, let's take a look at some NACM snips. Emphasis in italics is mine. Following the NACM snips and some NACM explanations, we will return to a chart from Giryavets.

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Economics

Sunday, April 12, 2015

BLS Economic Propaganda, Truth – The Cure for Cognitive Dissonance / Economics / Propaganda

By: James_Quinn

“In a time of deceit telling the truth is a revolutionary act.” ― George Orwell

Every time the BLS puts out their monthly propaganda report on the wonderful state of the U.S. jobs market and states with a straight face the unemployment rate is a measly 5.5%, their corporate mouthpieces in the mainstream cheerleader media regurgitate the fake numbers and urge you to buy stocks. The millionaire talking heads on CNBC and the corrupt bought off politicians in D.C. make broad sweeping declarations about economic recovery, strong job growth, GDP advancement, record highs in the stock market, and soaring consumer confidence.

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Economics

Saturday, April 11, 2015

Why the American Consumer Will Never Be Back / Economics / US Economy

By: Raul_I_Meijer

That title may be a bit much, granted, because never is a very long time. I might instead have said “The American Consumer Won’t Be Back For A Very Long Time”. Still, I simply don’t see any time in the future that would see Americans start spending again at a rate anywhere near what would be required for an economic recovery. Looks pretty infinity and beyond to me.

However, that is by no means a generally accepted point of view in the financial press. There’s reality, and then there’s whatever it is they’re smoking, and never the twain shall meet. Admittedly, my title may be a bit provocative, but in my view not nearly as provocative, if not offensive, as Peter Coy’s at Bloomberg, who named his latest effort “US Consumers Will Open Their Wallets Soon Enough”.

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Economics

Friday, April 10, 2015

How an Artificial Economy Collapses Organically  / Economics / Economic Theory

By: Dr_Jeff_Lewis

One of the biggest news stories, almost too perfect not to be timed, was released on a day when markets closed early: Good Friday. 

Conveniently not factored into major world markets was last week's horrible jobs report.

From the timing of the news, to the revisions and the real story, these numbers tell about the underlying economy. It says everything one needs to know about the broken monetary system. 

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Economics

Friday, April 10, 2015

Confusion over US Unemployment Data / Economics / Economic Statistics

By: Alasdair_Macleod

Unemployment is the one statistic that one would have thought is easy to define: just total up the number of people on unemployment benefit and there's your answer. It is however much more complex, particularly in a large country like the United States, whose potential labour force is estimated to be 250,080,000 across all 50 states plus Washington DC. Of this total 101,479,000 are not currently employed, a ratio of over 40%, and of these only 8,575,000 are deemed to be actually unemployed. The relevant figures are here.

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Economics

Friday, April 10, 2015

Euro-zone Crisis - Germany’s Trade Surplus Is a Problem / Economics / Eurozone Debt Crisis

By: John_Mauldin

In Code Red I wrote a great deal about trade imbalances among the various European countries, which were at the heart of the European sovereign debt problem. As the peripheral countries have tried to rebalance their trade deficits with Northern Europe and especially with Germany, they have seen their relative wages fall and deflation become a problem. Greece is the poster child.

The north-south imbalance in the Eurozone is still a problem today. In this week’s Outside the Box, I highlight a recent blog on that topic from none other than former Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke. He first published his blog on March 30, and it appears he is going to post to three times a week. It’s a very thoughtful commentary, and I will admit to having subscribed. He is going back to his “professor” style and communicates very clearly.

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Economics

Wednesday, April 08, 2015

Economists in Glass Houses / Economics / Economic Theory

By: John_Mauldin

For many economists, the chicken and egg question is, which came first, consumption or production? What drives growth? Let’s continue with our series on debt, in which I have been contrasting my views with those of Paul Krugman.

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Economics

Monday, April 06, 2015

Portrait of the Classical Gold Standard / Economics / Global Financial System

By: MISES

Marcia Christoff-Kurapovna writes: "The world that disappeared in 1914 appeared, in retrospect, something like our picture of Paradise," wrote the economist Cecil Hirsch in his June 1934 review of R.W. Hawtrey’s classic, The Art of Central Banking (1933). Hirsch bemoaned the loss of the far-sighted restraint that had once prevailed among the "bankers' banks" of the West, concluding that modern times "had failed to attain the standard of wisdom and foresight that prevailed in the 19th century."

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Economics

Sunday, April 05, 2015

New Zealand Economy - There’s Trouble Brewing In Middle Earth / Economics / Asian Economies

By: Raul_I_Meijer

For the second time in three years, I’m fortunate enough to spend some time in New Zealand (or Aotearoa). In 2012, it was all mostly a pretty crazy touring schedule, but this time is a bit quieter. Still get to meet tons of people though, in between the relentless Automatic Earth publishing schedule. And of course people want to ask, once they know what I do, how I think their country is doing.

My answer is I think New Zealand is much better off than most other countries, but not because they’re presently richer (disappointing for many). They’re better off because of the potential here. Which isn’t being used much at all right now. In fact, New Zealand does about everything wrong on a political and macro-economic scale. More about that below.

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Economics

Saturday, April 04, 2015

Is the U.S. Government Lying About Unemployment Statistics? / Economics / Economic Statistics

By: DailyWealth

Dr. David Eifrig writes: Over the last two days, I've shown you how I gauge the health of the U.S. economy.

I've also shown you why you can't blindly trust the government's economic statistics. Not because of some conspiracy agenda... but because measuring a $17 trillion economy is extremely difficult.

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Economics

Saturday, April 04, 2015

U.S. Jobs Report Huge Miss, +126k Half Forecasts / Economics / Employment

By: Mike_Shedlock

Initial Reaction

For a huge change we see the existing pattern of a strong establishment survey but a poor household survey has been replaced by weakness all around.

Last month I stated "The household survey varies more widely, and the tendency is for one to catch up to the other, over time. The question, as always, is which way?"

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