Analysis Topic: Economic Trends Analysis
The analysis published under this topic are as follows.
Tuesday, June 15, 2010
High UK Inflation Continues to Punish Savers With Negtive Real Interest Rates / Economics / Inflation
By: MoneyFacts
Inflation figures released today show that the Consumer Price Index (CPI) has fallen marginally to 3.40%, still way above the Government’s 2% target.
But a possible VAT increase in next week’s emergency Budget could stunt any longer term reductions.
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Tuesday, June 15, 2010
Inflation Corroded Copper Coins / Economics / Inflation
By: LewRockwell
Richard Daughty writes: Junior Mogambo Ranger (JMR) Phil S. sent an article from the Globe and Mail where I learned that inflation in Canada has been so persistently corrosive over the years that, like in America, "it now costs the Royal Canadian Mint more than a penny to make a penny, and because of penny 'hoarding' by Canadians, the mint has to keep making more." Hahaha! "Hoarding"? Hahahaha!
Tuesday, June 15, 2010
Government Quest to Buy Inflation, Print Baby Print / Economics / Inflation
By: John_Mauldin
This week I thought I would give you an Outside the Box with a more European flavor, as I am in Tuscany at the moment and on to Paris later this week and then back here for a working weekend with partners. Life is tough. :-)
Dylan Grice of Societe Generale (based in London) is fast becoming one of my favorite writers. This thought-provoking piece makes us meditate on whether central banks will print money in response to the fiscal crisis in the developed world countries. I am not certain that all central banks will print with abandon, BUT we need to think about what happens if they do.
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Monday, June 14, 2010
Can China Save the World Economy? / Economics / China Economy
By: Graham_Summers
Nope. No chance.
For starters, let’s look at the basic numbers. China’s GDP is now $4.3 trillion, making it the fourth largest economy in the world. However, there’s a HUGE drop off from the first two economies (Europe $16.4 trillion and the US $14.2 trillion) to the third and fourth (Japan $5.0 trillion and China $4.3 trillion).
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Monday, June 14, 2010
U.S. Economy Slows as States Lose Federal Stimulus Funds / Economics / US Economy
By: Mike_Shedlock
For only the second time in 50 years, state budget cuts will act as a fiscal drag on GDP as noted by Bloomberg in Economy in U.S. Slows as States Lose Federal Stimulus Funds.
Monday, June 14, 2010
Deflation Scare Dead Ahead / Economics / Deflation
By: Captain_Hook
According to John Williams of shadowstats.com, although the Employment Report to be released this Friday will appear robust on the surface, May payrolls could contract net of the temporary census boost, setting up a buy the rumor sell the news trade in the stock market. So this, combined with positive seasonality and the fact stocks are technically oversold on a short-term basis suggests gains should be expected into Friday, or Monday at the latest, however afterwards a resumption of the downtrend established over the past few weeks should return, potentially yielding significantly lower prices. Heaven knows the fundamentals support such a view, and have for some time, but now we also have bearish speculators exhausted as evidenced in falling US index open interest put / call ratios, where the bureaucracy’s price managers are unable to squeeze our faulty and fraudulent stock markets higher anymore.
Monday, June 14, 2010
Economic Stimulus Sovereign Debt Crisis End Game / Economics / Global Debt Crisis
By: Martin_D_Weiss
Anyone not blinded by greed can plainly see the sick cycle we’re in:
First, the government helps create a great asset bubble.
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Monday, June 14, 2010
U.S. Economy Heading For the Rocks? / Economics / Recession 2008 - 2010
By: Gerard_Jackson
If you read Reuters, Associated Press and the rest of the phony news outlets the US economy is on the mend and it's only a matter of time before happy days are here again. If you are one of the unemployed or underemployed things are indeed gloomy. And no wonder. The Wall Street Journal reports that in the first quarter not one venture-backed company went public. This hasn't happened since 1980. Adding to the economy's woes we find that of the 431,000 non-farm jobs created last month a mere 41,000 was in the private sector, less than 10 per cent. To top it off, manufacturing also started to slow.
Sunday, June 13, 2010
Deflation? Try a Tale of Two Inflations / Economics / Inflation
By: Dian_L_Chu
The crisis in Europe is causing concerns about deflation in the U.S. and other developed economies after weeks of financial-market turmoil. The fears are most pronounced in Europe, where a combination of spending cuts and tax increases could weigh on economic growth and feed into deflation.
Financial markets are reflecting a diverging expectation. Gold prices have been soaring—a potential indicator of inflation fears—while many other inflation indicators are going the other way.
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Sunday, June 13, 2010
Is Deflation in the United States Possible? / Economics / Deflation
By: Frank_Shostak
According to some analysts, a sharp decline in major commodity-price indexes has raised the specter of deflation. The Journal of Commerce's index (JCOM) fell by 8.5% in May from April while the Commodity Research Bureau's index (CRB) fell by 8.2% during that period. Also the growth momentum of these indexes plunged in May. The yearly rate of growth of the JCOM index fell to 47.9% from 77% in April, while the yearly rate of growth of the CRB index plunged to 0.7% from 24.9%.
Saturday, June 12, 2010
Investors Face Long-term Structural Changes of Lower Growth, Higher Volatility and Unemployment / Economics / US Economy
By: John_Mauldin
The Frog in the Frying Pan
Three Structural Changes
The Economy Won't Produce Enough Jobs
The End Game
Like an Army But with No Discipline
Tonight I am in Venice, but I have arranged for a special edition of Thoughts from the Frontline, written by Jonathan Tepper of Variant Perception, a research firm in London. I have been corresponding with Jonathan for some time, and we have had some solid, and lately quite frequent, conversations. I am very impressed with this young man, whose perceptions and insights I find quite thoughtful.
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Friday, June 11, 2010
World Spotlight on South Africa / Economics / Africa
By: Frank_Holmes
South Africa takes to the world stage today as it hosts the first World Cup to be played on the African continent. For the next 30 days, the eyes of the globe will be watching Rooney, Cristiano Ronaldo, Maicon and Messi battle it out for world soccer supremacy.
Friday, June 11, 2010
Why Won't the Global Debt Crisis Die, and With it Gold? / Economics / Global Debt Crisis
By: David_Galland
David Galland, Managing Director, Casey Research writes: Back when I had more time, I would occasionally play Oblivion, a video game. A game so addictive, it's been known to contribute to flunking out of colleges and the failure of marriages.
When persevering in a sword fight, your computerized opponents were prone to angrily muttering the phrase "Why won't you die, damn it!"
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Friday, June 11, 2010
The Monetary or Circulation-Credit Theory of the Trade Cycle / Economics / Economic Theory
By: MISES
The theory of the cyclical fluctuations of business as elaborated by the British Currency School was in two respects unsatisfactory.
First, it failed to recognize that circulation credit can be granted not only by the issue of banknotes in excess of the banks' holding of cash reserves, but also by creating bank deposits subject to check in excess of such reserves (checkbook money, deposit currency). Consequently it did not realize that deposits payable on demand can also be used as a device of credit expansion. This error is of little weight, as it can be easily amended. It is enough to stress the point that all that refers to credit expansion is valid for all varieties of credit expansion no matter whether the additional fiduciary media are banknotes or deposits.
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Friday, June 11, 2010
How to Survive Deflation, Important Warnings From Robert Prechter / Economics / Deflation
By: EWI
Telegraph.go.uk, May 26: "US money supply plunges at 1930s pace... The M3 money supply in the U.S. is contracting at an accelerating rate that now matches the average decline seen from 1929 to 1933, despite near zero interest rates and the biggest fiscal blitz in history."
Friday, June 11, 2010
After Government Economic Stimulus / Economics / US Economy
By: Andy_Sutton
There is perhaps no better example of the destructive nature of government intervention than the current housing and retail goods markets. For the past three years a spend-happy Congress lavished these areas with stimulus spending, tax credits, and other palliatives all aimed at papering over the structural defects in these markets. In the case of housing, the problem was years of easy money, sky-high prices, and zero-standards lending.
Friday, June 11, 2010
Brazil BRIC Economic Growth and China Retail Sales Analysis / Economics / Emerging Markets
By: Dhaval_Shah
This week we examine the GDP results from last "BRIC" economy to report, Brazil, then we look at another one; China and see how international trade and retail sales are tracking. Then we analyze the recent US consumer credit data, and finish up with a review of four of the monetary policy decisions this week.
Friday, June 11, 2010
PONZI Finance Recipe for Economic Catastrophe, Gold Not a Bubble / Economics / Global Debt Crisis
By: Ty_Andros
The “When hope turns to Fear” moment (See 2010 Outlook “When hope turns to Fear” in Tedbits archives) is unfolding as we speak, as the tides of insolvency sweep over the social welfare states and financial systems of the developed world. It is the next leg down in the global financial crisis and what will come to be known as the greatest depression ever is commencing -- we are fascinated and astonished at what the main stream media is reporting and failing to report.
Wednesday, June 09, 2010
Holding The Tiger Economies / Economics / Emerging Markets
By: John_Browne
In the arc of history, all great powers have their day. Even confining our glance to the modern era, countries such as Spain, France, and Great Britain all had periods of unrivalled power across the world stage. Today, the United States reigns as the world's sole superpower - but the wheel of fortune is turning. The US is being credibly challenged by rising powers in the developing world, like India and China. It is a process that will have huge implications for investors over the coming years.
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Wednesday, June 09, 2010
Defending the Speculator / Economics / Elliott Wave Theory
By: MISES
Walter Block writes: "Kill the speculators!" is a cry made during every famine that has ever existed. Uttered by demagogues, who think that the speculator causes death through starvation by raising food prices, this cry is fervently supported by the masses of economic illiterates. This kind of thinking, or rather nonthinking, has allowed dictators to impose even the death penalty for traders in food who charge high prices during famines. And this is done without the feeblest of protests from those usually concerned with civil rights and liberties.