Analysis Topic: Economic Trends Analysis
The analysis published under this topic are as follows.
Thursday, January 14, 2010
Deflationists Predicting Price Deflation Are Not Economists, They Are Journalists / Economics / Deflation
By: Gary_North
In Part 1, I replied to the issues raised by John Exter a generation ago:
Read full article... Read full article...1. The coming rush for liquidity
2. Gold as the most liquid asset
3. Currency and T-bills will do almost as well as gold
4. Gold as money, despite a commission
5. Asset prices influence consumer prices
Thursday, January 14, 2010
Europe in Economic Crisis / Economics / Euro-Zone
By: Global_Research
Peter Schwarz writes: At the start of the last decade, in March 2000, the European Union heads of state announced the Lisbon Strategy. Its aim, by 2010, was to make Europe “the most competitive and dynamic knowledge-based economy in the world, capable of sustainable economic growth with more and better jobs and greater social cohesion.” This would create “the conditions for full employment and the strengthening of regional cohesion in the European Union.”
Wednesday, January 13, 2010
What the Deflationists Are Missing / Economics / Inflation
By: David_Galland
An interesting article by Ambrose Evans-Pritchard came my way the other day. It’s worth a read, if for no other reason than that he paints an appropriately dark picture of the current state of the U.S. economy. You can read it here.
While I very much share Mr. Evans-Pritchard’s view that the global economy is far from out of the woods, our views diverge in that he sees devastating deflation speeding our way down the tunnel. Casey Research readers of any duration know that we see devastating inflation.
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Wednesday, January 13, 2010
Unemployment The Most Important Challenge Facing the U.S. Economy / Economics / US Economy
By: Claus_Vogt
From the start of the economic and financial crisis that began in 2007, I made it clear that this was not a garden variety recession. Instead, I said, it was the aftermath of the bursting of the largest real estate bubble the world had ever seen.
Many developments of the past three years support my thesis. Now I predict that this will not be a garden variety recovery either. We should expect some false starts in the economy and a bear market rally for stocks.
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Tuesday, January 12, 2010
Global Debt Deleveraging of Housing Market Bubbles, Why Reflation Will Fail / Economics / Global Debt Crisis
By: Mike_Shedlock
Inquiring minds are reading an interesting document by the San Francisco Fed called Global Household Leverage, House Prices, and Consumption.
"[O]ver-investment and over-speculation are often important; but they would have far less serious results were they not conducted with borrowed money." —Irving Fisher (1933)Read full article... Read full article...
Tuesday, January 12, 2010
The Recession Is Over, the Economic Depression Just Beginning / Economics / Great Depression II
By: Stephen_Lendman
In late 2009, former Merrill Lynch economist, now with the Canadian firm, Gluskin Sheff, said the following:
"The credit collapse and the accompanying deflation and overcapacity are going to drive the economy and financial markets in 2010. We have said this repeatedly that this recession is really a depression because the (post-WW II) recessions were merely small backward steps in an inventory cycle but in the context of expanding credit. Whereas now, we are in a prolonged period of credit contraction, especially as it relates to households and small businesses."
Tuesday, January 12, 2010
Free Banking versus Large-scale Credit Expansion / Economics / Economic Theory
By: MISES
Observations on the Discussions Concerning Free Banking
- The Banking School taught that an overissuance of banknotes is impossible if the bank limits its business to the granting of short-term loans. When the loan is paid back at maturity, the banknotes return to the bank and thus disappear from the market. However, this happens only if the bank restricts the amount of credits granted. (But even then it would not undo the effects of its previous credit expansion. It would merely add to it the effects of a later credit contraction.)
Tuesday, January 12, 2010
Eurozone Faces Meltdown Under Sovereign Debt Crisis 2010 / Economics / Euro-Zone
By: John_Browne
As fears of a dollar meltdown have loomed ever larger in recent years, major investors, including central banks, have moved significant portions of their cash reserves into the euro, the currency of the European Union (EU). And while it is true that the euro offers some shelter from the American economic catastrophe, the currency does come with baggage that investors should not ignore.
Monday, January 11, 2010
Economic Steroids Are Toxic Too / Economics / Economic Stimulus
By: Vitaliy_Katsenelson
AS THE NEW YEAR OPENS, THE stock market is behaving as if the past 20 years were about to repeat themselves: Another recession will turn into a robust expansion. Stock prices already are discounting an earnings recovery to something only slightly below the level before the financial crisis. Risk-taking is in vogue again.
Monday, January 11, 2010
Does the Government Own the Whole Economy? / Economics / Economic Theory
By: Robert_Murphy
In a recent New York Times op-ed, economist Robert Shiller (coproducer of the famous housing-price index) recommended that the US government begin to sell claims on fractions of Gross Domestic Product. Besides the practical problems with his proposal, it rests on the premise that the US government owns the entire economy. It will be instructive to parse Shiller's column to see just how badly his collectivist thinking misleads him.
Monday, January 11, 2010
The Deflationists Myth of Japan / Economics / Deflation
By: Gary_North
In my previous report in this series, I contrasted the monetary views of the Austrian School of economics with the standard views of Keynesian and Chicago School economists. Despite their deep-seated differences, all of them oppose the views of the handful of forecasters who predict inevitable price deflation. I wrote:
Monday, January 11, 2010
Baby Boomer Demographics, Household Formation and the Hoax Economy / Economics / Demographics
By: Mike_Shedlock
Following is a collection of Emails from a few key friends regarding household formation, baby boomer and millennials demographics, the labor participation rate, trends in unemployment, and debt deflation.
One of the emails is from Steve Keen, a noted economist.
Monday, January 11, 2010
U.S. Unemployment Numbers Illustrate Retarded Economic Recovery / Economics / Economic Recovery
By: Gerard_Jackson
When the official unemployment figure dropped by 0.2 per cent to 10 per cent the so-called media were quick to claim it as evidence that the economy was now moving in the right direction. But how could this be if firms were not hiring? To any reasonable observer of the economic scene it was obvious that the number of discouraged workers must be rising. The jury is now in, making this conclusion official: The Labor Department has reported that 929,000 "discouraged workers" ceased looking for work.
Sunday, January 10, 2010
On the Precipice of a Global Economic Avalanche That No Bailout Can Stop / Economics / Great Depression II
By: Mac_Slavo
Bob Chapman says we’re Still In A Credit Crisis, New Liquidity Threatens Inflation. On top of that, we could very well be on the precipace of a paradigm shift in America:
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Sunday, January 10, 2010
China Economy and Stock Market Crash Warning From Hedge Fund Manager / Economics / China Economy
By: Trader_Mark
This is not a new position for legendary short selling oriented hedge fund manager (who smoked out Enron) Jim Chanos, but he continues to pound the table on the dangers of China. [Dec 16, 2009: CNBC Video - Hedge Fund Maven Jim Chanos on Autos, Banking, and China] It's a tough environment to be short anything globally; I assume he is taking some pain even in his anti automotive parlays.
Sunday, January 10, 2010
Surge in U.S. Personal Bankruptcies, Foreclosures and Job Losses / Economics / Recession 2008 - 2010
By: Bob_Chapman
The number of Americans filing for personal bankruptcy rose by nearly a third in 2009, a surge largely driven by foreclosures and job losses.
And more people are filing for Chapter 7 bankruptcy, which liquidates assets to pay off some debts and absolves the filers of others. That is significant because a 2005 overhaul of federal bankruptcy laws aimed to encourage Chapter 13 filings, which force consumers to sign onto debt-repayment plans in exchange for keeping certain assets.
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Sunday, January 10, 2010
Consumer Credit Drops Record $17.5 Billion; Steepest Declines Since WWII / Economics / Deflation
By: Mike_Shedlock
While monetarist clowns focus on so-called excess reserves and the huge surge in inflation that is supposed to bring (See Fictional Reserve Lending And The Myth Of Excess Reserves) I am watching the biggest plunge in consumer credit since WWII.
Saturday, January 09, 2010
Why Deflation is Not Ahead / Economics / Deflation
By: Gary_North
There is a debate going on within pro-gold circles: inflation or deflation. The deflationists predict that price deflation is inevitable and imminent. The inflationists insist that mass inflation is inevitable, but maybe not imminent.
Deflationists rarely speak of mass deflation, let alone hyperdeflation. Just deflation. They do not say by what percent prices will fall each year or for how many years.
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Saturday, January 09, 2010
Is The US At An Extreme Risk Of A Double Dip Recession? / Economics / Economic Recovery
By: Submissions
Safari Investment Research write: One of the major concerns at the end of 2008 and beginning of 2009 was how much the average U.S. consumer has to de-lever in order to reach a sustainable debt level that could be supported in a declining asset price environment. As we all know, the environment changed quickly in the 2nd quarter of 2009 when all asset prices began to rise in value and the national savings rate continued to climb (See Exhibit 1).
Saturday, January 09, 2010
Economic Aspects of the Pension Problem: Part II / Economics / Pensions & Retirement
By: Professor_Emeritus
As It Appears Sixty Years Later
In Two Parts. Part Two: Productivity Revisited - In Part One I discussed the clear and present danger to pension rights: deflation as manifested by the interest rates structure that has been falling for almost thirty years, while most observers still think that the real danger is inflation. In this concluding part I carry out a deeper analysis of the pension problem, looking at the marginal productivity of labor and capital.
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