Analysis Topic: Economic Trends Analysis
The analysis published under this topic are as follows.
Thursday, July 31, 2008
Fallacies and Lies of Bailouts as US Heads for Economic Armageddon / Economics / US Economy
By: Brady_Willett
While Elton John made us think of Norma Jean as a candle in the wind, the financial markets in 2008 bring to mind a stick of lit dynamite in a hurricane. Does an explosion loom before the unpredictable gusts finally dissipate? If so, gold may be the only answer… The Misnomer
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Thursday, July 31, 2008
Shocking Downward Revisions to US GDP From Growth to Recession / Economics / Recession 2008 - 2010
By: Mike_Shedlock
Tomorrow, the Nonfarm Payroll Numbers are out. I made my forecast last night ahead of today's numbers. My predictions can be found in July Payroll Playbook . Read full article... Read full article...
Thursday, July 31, 2008
Credit Losses Keep Doubling, $400bn, $800bn, $1600bn / Economics / Credit Crisis 2008
By: Hans_Wagner
Credit is the fuel that drives the economy. If you want to beat the market or want to learn to invest, it is important to have a good understanding of important factors that affect the economy. The large loan losses banks are experiencing are limiting their ability to provide credit to help companies grow. If companies cannot grow their business, the economy will continue to be weak. Read full article... Read full article...
Thursday, July 31, 2008
America's Financial Collapse- It's the Economy Stupid! / Economics / US Economy
By: Mike_Stathis
It's shocking to see so many who remain in denial about the economy, specifically the pundits. Until they see two consecutive quarters of negative GDP growth (a ridiculously misleading metric – see my previous article “How Washington is Fooling You With GDP Data”) they refuse to admit we are in a recession. And the media acts as puppets, repeating these same lines without scrutinizing the data. Who do these people think they're kidding? If you're running a show designed to help investors, shouldn't you be ahead of the curve instead of behind it? Serving as broadcasters for inaccurate data that's been manipulated to fool the public does nothing to aid an audience looking for real investment guidance. Read full article... Read full article...
Wednesday, July 30, 2008
United States Abandoning Capitalism for Socialism / Economics / Government Intervention
By: John_Browne
Over the past few decades, the United States has steadily evolved from a nation of ‘producers' to one of ‘consumers'. The change has been celebrated by politicians and economists as proof of America's arrival at the top of the global economic food chain. In reality, the development has depleted the nation of its hard-earned wealth, and has led us to the brink of ruin. Read full article... Read full article...
Wednesday, July 30, 2008
Washington Manipulation of GDP Data to Hide Recessions / Economics / Market Manipulation
By: Mike_Stathis
I continue where I left off – discussing just a few of the ways Washington tries to fool us by its misuse and manipulation of data. Washington likes to remind critics that Americans enjoy the highest living standard in the world. As evidence of this, government “experts” discuss statistics such as GDP growth, employment, wealth, income and wage growth, and other economic data without defining exactly what they are referring to or explaining all the assumptions used. In Part 1 of this series, we saw how hedonics can alter GDP and inflation data. Here we look at some additional problems with GDP. After you read this piece, I hope you will agree that the misuse of GDP data as an indicator of economic strength has been one of the biggest errors made in the field of U.S. economics. Read full article... Read full article...
Wednesday, July 30, 2008
Curing US Inflation, Zimbabwe Style / Economics / Inflation
By: Adrian_Ash
"...Three hundred billion here, $300bn there, and pretty soon you're talking about a wave of dilution hitting cash-holders, bond owners, stock investors and US Dollar earners everywhere..."
YOU'D BE FORGIVEN for thinking they planned it together last night.
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Wednesday, July 30, 2008
Central Bankers Safety Confidence Trick as Great Depression 2.0 Looms / Economics / Economic Depression
By: Darryl_R_Schoon
Rising gold prices are a cold sore on the lip of central bankers. In the world of paper money, it's a clear sign something's not right
Central bankers are the keepers of the keys to the kingdom. The kingdom, however, is on the edge of bankruptcy and in danger as never before. Comparisons are now being made to the Great Depression of the 1930s. The comparisons, however, are just that.
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Wednesday, July 30, 2008
New York Governor Warns Of Economic and Budget Crisis / Economics / US Economy
By: Mike_Shedlock
The New York Times is reporting Paterson Warns of Economic Crisis .In a rare, brief televised address, Gov. David A. Paterson announced on Tuesday afternoon that he would call the Legislature into an emergency session on Aug. 19 to address what he called an economic and budget crisis confronting New York State as a result of plummeting revenues and rising costs.
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Tuesday, July 29, 2008
Contracting S&P 500 Corporate Earnings Confirm US Recession / Economics / Corporate Earnings
By: Paul_L_Kasriel
Are we in a recession or are we not? The debate goes on. Take a look at the year-over-year change in operating profits of the S&P 500 corporations (see Chart 1). Profits have declined for three consecutive quarters through the first quarter of this year. Given reports of second-quarter profits to date and estimates of those corporate profits to be reported, it is a good bet that year-over-year profits will be down for four consecutive quarters. Read full article... Read full article...
Monday, July 28, 2008
The Paradox of Deleveraging at the Heart of the Credit Crisis / Economics / Credit Crisis 2008
By: John_Mauldin
I have often commented about the problem of personal savings. We worry about the lack of savings here in the US, but many do not understand that if everyone started to save 5% of there income immediately that it would seriously impact consumer spending, pushing the US into a recession. It is a paradox, as Paul McCulley points out, that what may be good for the individual may not be good for the collective country. Read full article... Read full article...
Monday, July 28, 2008
US Recession Trend Status on US GDP Growth Data / Economics / US Economy
By: Money_Morning
William Patalon III writes: A hectic week on the economic calendar is highlighted by the initial look at second quarter gross domestic product (GDP). Remember, a recession is defined as two consecutive quarters of negative growth, so doomsayers have targeted this week's release as confirmation of their pessimism.
Fortunately, the analyst consensus holds that the economy expanded at a faster pace than the 1% rate of the first quarter, putting us safely outside of recession territory. Investors get another view inside the struggling labor market where layoffs (mainly among financials) have resulted in overall job contractions for five consecutive months.
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Monday, July 28, 2008
Economic Forecasts and Analysis For US Financial Markets (July 28-August 1) / Economics / US Economy
By: Joseph_Brusuelas
The week of July 28-August 1 will see a fairly significant amount of US macro data. The major releases will be clustered near the end of the week on Thursday and Friday. Thursday will see the publication of the preliminary GDP for Q2, jobless claims, Chicago PMI and the employment cost index for Q2. The week will be capped by the release of the July non-farm payrolls report and the estimate of the ISM of national manufacturing conditions for that same month. Tuesday will see the release of July consumer confidence survey by the Conference Board and Wednesday will see the ADP estimate of payrolls for July. The week will see another heavy five days of earnings statements with heavyweights such as Disney, Starbucks, Chevron and Berkshire-Hathaway reporting near the end of the week. Read full article... Read full article...
Sunday, July 27, 2008
Bernanke Seeks a Great Depression to Test His Thesis / Economics / Economic Depression
By: Mick_Phoenix
It has been a rather busy time for The Collection Agency, picking up assets in lieu of cash. Anyone need a badly treated, surplus to requirements, Bank customer desk or ten? I can do job lots.
We start off with an excerpt from The Bernanke Conundrum written on 8th May 08:
Sunday, July 27, 2008
US Economy Contracting as Paulson Seeks to Rescue Collapsing Banks / Economics / Credit Crisis 2008
By: Prieur_du_Plessis
“The Index of Leading Economic Indicators (LEI) fell 0.1% in June, following a revised 0.2% drop in May (previously estimated as a 0.1% increase). The quarterly average of LEI is down 2.0% from a year ago, the largest decline in the current business cycle. Historically, such large year-to-year declines of the quarterly average of the index are associated with recessions, with the exception of 1967.
“The National Bureau of Economic Research announces the dates of peaks and troughs of business cycles long after they occur because they need to wait for revisions of economic data. The main message from today's LEI data is that it confirms the severely weak status of the economy in the near term. LEI data have been sending warning signals for several months but they have been largely ignored.”
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Saturday, July 26, 2008
Euro-Zone Slowng Credit Growth and Money Supply / Economics / Euro-Zone
By: Victoria_Marklew
Today's ECB data on credit and money supply showed that the pace of loan growth to the private sector is easing, coming in at 9.8% on the year in June, versus 10.5% in May.Read full article... Read full article...
Saturday, July 26, 2008
UK Economy Sharp Slowdown on Q2 GDP of 0.2% / Economics / UK Economy
By: Victoria_Marklew
Today's preliminary Q2 GDP report from the UK showed real growth slowing to 0.2% on the quarter and 1.6% on the year, the weakest in three years and down from 0.3% and 2.3%, respectively, in Q1. A marked fall in construction output, the result of weakness in private house building, was largely to blame - down 0.7% on the quarter. However, the slowdown in the dominant service sector was also notable, with growth of just 0.4% on the quarter and 2.1% on the year, the weakest annual growth in 16 years.Read full article... Read full article...
Friday, July 25, 2008
US Conflicting Economic Data : Payrolls and Second Quarter GDP Growth / Economics / US Economy
By: Joseph_Brusuelas
The upcoming week will be defined by two closely linked US macroeconomic data that will frame the debate about which direction the economy is poised to take during the latter half of 2008. Yet, these two data are likely to paint two very different portraits regarding the condition of the economy. On Thursday the market will observe the preliminary estimate of economic growth during the second quarter of the year, followed by the publication of the July non-farm payrolls the next morning. Read full article... Read full article...
Thursday, July 24, 2008
It's Always Darkest Before the Dawn...of a Economic Depression / Economics / Economic Depression
By: Kurt_Kasun
The financial system will collapse before "zero-hour" actually occurs. I think we are seeing signs of it in the desperate measures being employed to nationalize companies which trade on market exchanges as private enterprises. There is simply no way to defend the SEC's decision to selectively enforce the prohibition of naked short selling for 17 ‘fragile' financial companies and to not enforce it for the over 5000 other companies which trade on US stock market exchanges. And plans to rescue Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac breathe of a sort of corporate nationalism. Over time this will deal a massive psychological blow to financial markets. They are currently rallying on the sense of relief that the efforts to prevent Fannie and Freddie from dragging US financial markets into the abyss have succeeded and the inevitable day of reckoning has been postponed once again. Read full article... Read full article...
Thursday, July 24, 2008
UK Retail Sales Worst Slump in 20 Years Surprises Market Commentators / Economics / UK Economy
By: Nadeem_Walayat
UK Retail Sales for June fell by a record 3.9% inline with the evidence of a rapidly slowing UK economy which is hitting the retail sector hard. Many mainstream market commentators have been taken by surprise by the released data as it follow hard on the heels of Mays surprise jump of 3.4% which was taken by many commentators at the time as the signs of a mini high street spending boom despite mounting evidence of a distressed retail sector which has witnessed literally crashing share prices on the back of earnings warnings as witnessed by Marks and Spencer's 20% crash at the start of this month. Read full article... Read full article...