Analysis Topic: Economic Trends Analysis
The analysis published under this topic are as follows.
Saturday, April 02, 2016
Cost Push Inflation is Another Keynesian Concept the Federal Reserve Believes In - They're Wrong / Economics / Inflation
By: Gordon_T_Long
FRA Co-founder Gordon T. Long is joined by Christopher P. Casey in discussing the decrease in oil price and its potential effect on the global economy.
Mr. Casey is the Managing Director of WindRock Wealth Management, a registered investment advisor and wealth management firm that subscribes to the Austrian school of economics. Mr. Casey is a frequent speaker before a number of organizations and conferences, including USA Watchdog, GoldMoney, Freedom Fest, and various bar associations and radio shows, including weekly financial and economic commentary on The Edge of Liberty (WNJC 1360, Philadelphia). His writings have appeared in a variety of publications and websites including The Ludwig von Mises Institute, Zero Hedge, Family Business, Casey Research, and Laissez Faire Books. He is a board member of the Economics Development Council with the University of Illinois, a Policy Advisor for The Heartland Institute's Center on Finance, Insurance, and Real Estate, and a Chartered Financial Analyst charterholder (CFA®)
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Thursday, March 31, 2016
Inflation is Here and the Fed Wants More / Economics / Inflation
By: Graham_Summers
The Fed failed to hike interest rates in March despite the “data” hitting levels at which the Fed said it would hike. Indeed, the Fed even lowered its expected number of rate hikes for this year from four to two!
This confirms for us that the Fed does indeed want inflation.
In the last few weeks, several Fed officials, most notably Fed Vice-Chair Stanley Fischer stated not only that inflation was appearing in the US but that this is something the Fed “would like to happen.”
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Thursday, March 31, 2016
Beware of March Non Farm Payrolls. They Have the Worst Record than any Other Month / Economics / Employment
By: Ashraf_Laidi
The table below shows the consistency of misses (actual figure below consensus forecasts) in March NFPs over the last three years. In fact, NFP figures for the month of March have come in below forecasts in 7 out of the last 8 March reports with an average miss of -59k.
Most strikingly & recently, last year's March report showed a 126K reading, well below consensus of 245K. Interestingly, that 129K reading was revised down to 88K one month later.
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Wednesday, March 30, 2016
Price Controls May Be On the Way / Economics / Economic Theory
By: MISES
Paul-Martin Foss writes: If you thought negative interest rates were as bad as it could get with central banks, you might be in for a surprise. Central banks have been so spectacularly unsuccessful with their accommodative monetary policies that they are discussing pulling out all the stops to get the results they want. They fail to realize that the reason prices aren’t rising is because they really want and need to fall. Bad debts weren’t liquidated during the last financial crisis, the debtors were merely bailed out. Overpriced assets weren’t allowed to be reduced in price. Central banks pumped trillions of dollars into the economy to attempt to paper over the recession. Market forces want to drive prices down, while central banks attempt to prop them up. So what to do when central banks aren’t getting their way?
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Wednesday, March 30, 2016
Inflation Has Hit the US and is Only Going to Get Worse / Economics / Inflation
By: Graham_Summers
The Fed is rapidly losing control.
Core inflation has already broken above 2%.
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Tuesday, March 29, 2016
The UK Auto Market Is Booming, So Is It a Sign of Economic Recovery? / Economics / UK Economy
By: Nicholas_Kitonyi
The UK has been one of those economies that cannot exactly be classified as recovering or struggling over the last couple of years. To put it clear, the UK economy has not been as good as the US economy in terms of growth amongst the developed countries or as bad as the Euro Zone.
The UK economy has been more or less stuck in the past few years with no significant movement either side of the growth curve. Nonetheless, one of the country’s key performance indicators in the manufacturing industry has shown some significant improvement, and recent numbers suggest that things could even get better in 2016 and 2017.
Tuesday, March 29, 2016
China Boasts Most Billionaires in the World and Makes For a Great Long Term Investment / Economics / Demographics
By: Sol_Palha
Our Asian edge Index and trend indicator clearly stated back in 2005, that China would lead the way in economic growth and eventually overtake the US in many areas. China now boasts the World's Largest Middle Class, and it is growing much faster than our Middle-Class.
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Sunday, March 27, 2016
China Economy Soft Landing or Bust? SSEC Stock Market Analysis / Economics / China Economy
By: Chris_Vermeulen
China’s stock market ‘bubble’ was fueled by "speculative mania" which has proven to have had grave implications of the global stock markets. The collapse of this "speculative mania" will have far reaching ramifications on our current global stock markets. This indicates that Central Bank interventions cannot alter market cycles.
Friday, March 25, 2016
BEA Revises U.S. GDP Economic Growth Upward to 1.38% for Q4 2015 / Economics / US Economy
By: CMI
In their third and final estimate of the US GDP for the fourth quarter of 2015, the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) reported that the economy was growing at a +1.38% annualized rate, up +0.38% from their previous estimate for the fourth quarter, but still down -0.61% from the third quarter.
The improvement was broadly based, with the revision to consumer expenditures for services having the greatest impact (+0.34%). Exports (+0.09%) and imports (+0.02%) also improved, as did commercial fixed investment (+0.04%) and governmental expenditures (+0.03%).
Wednesday, March 23, 2016
Fed's Bullard: We Are Overshooting on Inflation / Economics / Inflation
By: Bloomberg
Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis President James Bullard spoke with Michael McKee and Tom Keene on Bloomberg TV and Bloomberg Radio this morning. He discussed Fed policy, the U.S. economy global inflation, and moving toward a more normal nominal interest rate structure.
Bullard said policy makers should consider raising interest rates at their next meeting: "You get another strong jobs report, it looks like labor markets are improving, you could probably make a case for moving in April."
Tuesday, March 22, 2016
The Chinese Economic "Miracle" Evaporates / Economics / China Economy
By: Rodney_Johnson
There’s no doubt that the Chinese economic miracle is real. When you move 500 million people from rural to urban settings, taking them from small farms and putting them in a specialized labor force, the economic dividend is massive. That’s how you keep GDP growing more than 7% for 25 years. But along the way, they wanted more.Beyond building factories and housing for new arrivals, local politicians started building massive, wasteful projects.
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Tuesday, March 22, 2016
Greenspan Now Worried About Inflation, Says 'Entitlements Crowding Out Investment, Productivity is Dead' / Economics / US Economy
By: Mike_Shedlock
Former Fed Chairman Alan Greenspan spoke with Tom Keene and Mike McKee for Bloomberg TV & Radio. He discussed the ramifications of negative interest rates, entitlement spending, and declining productivity.
On the state of the U.S. and global economy, he said: "We're in trouble basically because productivity is dead in the water."
On whether he is optimistic going forward, Greenspan said: "No. I haven't been for quite a while. And I won't be until we can resolve the entitlement programs. Nobody wants to touch it. And that is gradually crowding out capital investment, and that's crowding out productivity, and it's crowding out the standards of living where do you want me to go from there."
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Tuesday, March 22, 2016
Here We Go Again: U.S. Government Ramps Up Borrowing As Private Sector Slows / Economics / Government Spending
By: John_Rubino
This morning, US existing home sales plunged and the Chicago Fed’s national activity index turned negative. Both are obvious signs of a slowing economy.
Anticipating this kind of news, Credit Bubble Bulletin’s Doug Noland in his most recent column analyzed the Federal Reserve’s quarterly Z.1 Report for signs of changing financial trends, and found something potentially serious. The following three charts tell the tale:
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Monday, March 21, 2016
Unemployment vs Inflation - May the Phillips Curve Rest in Peace / Economics / Economic Theory
By: Michael_Pento
In 1958, economist William Phillips claimed there was a historical inverse relationship between the rate of unemployment and the corresponding rate of inflation. His conclusion was that full employment (whatever that means) was inflationary. He illustrated his claim through a chart referred to as the Phillips Curve.
Friday, March 18, 2016
The Profound Impact of E-commerce on International Trade / Economics / Global Economy
By: Boris_Dzhingarov
When we consider the effect of e-commerce on the global economy, it is said to be one that is both far-reaching and very influential. E-commerce is a type of trade that has a significant and profound effect for businesses located all over the world, and is more powerful than many different traditional resources which the majority of global businesses have adopted over time. E-commerce has been able to successfully remove the global barriers between businesses and customers from differing countries, helping customers to easily locate and contact vendors with minimum hassle.
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Thursday, March 17, 2016
UK Economic Growth Evaporating, Worse to Come than OBR Budget 2016 Forecasts / Economics / UK Economy
By: Nadeem_Walayat
The governments fantasy projections on the economy made by their Office for Economic Propaganda (OBR) shortly following the Conservatives May 2015 election victory are fast unraveling as the OBR's latest propaganda nudged expected growth for 2016 lower to 2% from 2.4%, and growth for 2017 lower to 2.2% from 2.5%, whilst maintaining more distant year overly optimistic forecasts.
Thursday, March 17, 2016
UK Government Debt Propaganda Continues as OBR Revises Borrowing Higher / Economics / UK Debt
By: Nadeem_Walayat
The Office of Budgetary Responsibility has once more dutifully pumped out economic propaganda for the UK government in its latest report, where the most notable revision was to increase the amount the government will borrow over its term in office from the original £115 billion (May 2015) to now £178bn, a 54% increase in the amount they said they would borrow at the outset, and which is set against their November 2015 revision higher to £143bn.
Tuesday, March 15, 2016
The Fed Just Confirmed Inflation is Here / Economics / Inflation
By: Graham_Summers
As we warned last week, the inflation genie is out of the bottle…
We now have confirmation that the Fed is aware of this…
Two key Federal Reserve officials said Monday they expect inflation to get closer to the central bank’s target…
Their comments came after data late last month that showed core inflation rose 1.7 percent in the 12 months ended in January.
Source: CNBC
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Monday, March 14, 2016
U.S. Inflation Comeback: Did Inflation Ever Go Away? / Economics / Inflation
By: Mike_Shedlock
This is a guest post by Joseph Y. Calhoun at Alhambra Investment Partners. His post starts off with this quote by Stanley Fischer, Fed Vice-Chair in a speech before the National Association for Business Economics.
Says Fischer "We may well at present be seeing the first stirrings of an increase in the inflation rate -- something that we would like to happen."
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Monday, March 14, 2016
President Obama is the One Peddling Fiction on State of US Economy / Economics / US Economy
By: Michael_Pento
In his final State of the Union Address, President Obama chided, "Anyone claiming that America's economy is in decline is peddling fiction." Following the recently released February Non-farm Payroll Report, which showed a net increase of 242 thousand jobs, he doubled down on that same contention. The seemingly robust number of new jobs created prompted the President to remark, "The numbers and the facts don't lie, and I think it's useful given that there seems to be an alternative reality out there from some of the political folks that America is down in the dumps. It's not. America is pretty darn great right now."