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Market Oracle FREE Newsletter

Analysis Topic: Economic Trends Analysis

The analysis published under this topic are as follows.

Economics

Thursday, April 30, 2015

The Many Failures of the CPI Consumer Price Index / Economics / Inflation

By: Mark_Thornton

Austrians oppose the whole notion of trying to accurately measure “inflation” which mainstream economists see as a general rise in prices. (Austrians view inflation as a politically engineered increase in the money supply.)

A few years ago, mainstream economists like Paul Krugman chastised the Austrians for the lack of anticipated price inflation in the economy. However, their mistake was a fixation on the Consumer Price Index (CPI). If you looked around at other prices in the economy you could see higher prices in just about every other market, such as commodities, oil, gold, producer goods, real estate, and stocks.

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Economics

Thursday, April 30, 2015

Why Deflation is Unlikely / Economics / Deflation

By: GoldMoney

Financial markets are becoming aware that the US economy is stalling, so investors increasingly take the view that with demand likely to stagnate or even fall, prices for goods and services will soften. This is already threatening to be the situation in a number of other advanced nations, with negative interest rates to combat it becoming commonplace. For this reason, gold and silver priced in dollars are expected by many traders to drift lower.

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Economics

Thursday, April 30, 2015

What Does The Strong U.S. Dollar Mean For The Economy? / Economics / US Economy

By: Arkadiusz_Sieron

The Fed no longer keeps promises of being "patient". The March's FOMC statement was, however, interpreted as dovish, which caused the plunge in the U.S. dollar. Nevertheless, the renewed expectations of the interest rate hike (caused by some Fed officials' hawkish statements or stronger economic data in the second quarter due to low base in the first quarter) may cause the U.S. dollar to rally further, which could harm the emerging markets and unwind the carry trade. It is then high time we explain the consequences of the possible next bull in the greenback for the global economy.

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Economics

Wednesday, April 29, 2015

BEA Reports Weak U.S. 1st Quarter 2015 GDP Growth at 0.25% / Economics / US Economy

By: CMI

In their first estimate of the US GDP for the first quarter of 2015, the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) reported that the economy was growing at a +0.25% annualized rate, down sharply (-1.97%) from the +2.22% growth rate recorded for the prior quarter. And according to the "real final sales of domestic product" (BEA's very own "bottom line" for the economy), the economy actually shrank during the quarter, contracting at about a half percent (-0.49%) annualized rate, down -2.81% from last quarter's +2.32%. The difference between the headline number and "final sales" is inventory growth, which is excluded from the "bottom line" figure.

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Economics

Wednesday, April 29, 2015

U.S. GDP Economic Growth Flat-Lines, Fed Interest Rate Hike Evaporates / Economics / US Economy

By: John_Rubino

As pretty much everyone is now aware, US Q1 growth was way below expectations. And the only reason it was even marginally positive was because businesses expanded their inventories at a record rate. Here’s a chart from Zero Hedge comparing the economy’s growth with that of inventories:

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Economics

Monday, April 27, 2015

Greece: Down and Probably Out / Economics / Eurozone Debt Crisis

By: Steve_H_Hanke

Led by the charismatic Alexis Tsipras, the Syriza party took office in Athens on January 26th. The most prominent member of the new Prime Minister’s cabinet is Yanis Varoufakis, the Finance Minister. He is an economics professor, with a complete repertoire of anti-capitalist rhetoric. And with government spending amounting to 58.5% of Greek GDP, Varoufakis’ hot anti-austerity harangues have turned the meaning of the word “austerity” on its head.

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Economics

Monday, April 27, 2015

Economic Stagnation - Let's Blame The Savers / Economics / Economic Theory

By: Michael_Pento

Just like in the world of fashion, economic terminologies come in and out of vogue. One such economic term trending recently is Secular Stagnation. First proposed by Keynesian economist Alvin Hansen back in the 1930s, Secular Stagnation was coined to explain America's dismal economic performance -- in which sluggish growth and employment levels were well below potential.

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Economics

Saturday, April 25, 2015

The "Living Wage" Mistake / Economics / Wages

By: MISES

Ryan W. McMaken writes: Much of the push to raise minimum wages centers on the assumption that each individual worker should be paid an amount that allows the worker to purchase food, health care, transportation, and housing based on that one wage alone. In many cases, the living wage claims extend to the claim that each worker — or two adult workers, in some cases — should be able to support a family of four or more.

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Economics

Saturday, April 25, 2015

US Factories Crushed By Strong U.S. Dollar / Economics / US Economy

By: John_Rubino

Government statistics are always suspect, for at least one obvious reason: Modern economies are way too big and complex to measure in real-time. So virtually every number is revised in the months after its release, frequently to the point of saying something very different. But by then lots of new data has come out and no one cares about the old numbers.

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Economics

Saturday, April 25, 2015

China Economic Slowdown Story - Why “Didi Dache” Is a Phrase You Need to Know / Economics / China Economy

By: Money_Morning

If all you’ve been hearing regarding China recently is noise about its economic slowdown, you need to find a better news source.

Investors need to stop worrying over China’s long-expected gradual slowdown. Do so and you likely will see, as my guest today does, the long-term growth ahead for key tech sectors in the world’s most populous nation.

I’m talking about the kind of growth that will fill investors’ portfolios with soaring profits for years to come.

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Economics

Tuesday, April 21, 2015

Children & Retirees: 7.5 Million Reasons Our Economy Isn’t Growing / Economics / Demographics

By: Harry_Dent

Rodney Johnson writes: A few weeks ago my lovely wife and younger daughter, who is still in high school, traveled to Texas for a birthday party. It wasn’t just any party, it was the centennial celebration for my wife’s great aunt. 

More amazing than this lady’s longevity is the fact she’s not alone.  She and her two sisters (my wife’s grandmother and her two great aunts) all live together, ranging in age from 91 to 100.  We call it “the house of little old ladies.” 

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Economics

Tuesday, April 21, 2015

Characteristics of Extremely Over-Indebted Economies / Economics / Global Debt Crisis 2015

By: John_Mauldin

I think it was almost two years ago that I was in Cyprus. Cyprus had just come through its crisis and was still in shell shock. I was there to get a feel for what it was like, and a number of my readers had courteously arranged for me to meet with all sorts of people and do a few presentations. A local group arranged for me to speak at the lecture hall of the Central Bank of Cyprus in Nicosia.

There were about 50 people in the room. I was busily working on Code Red at the time and had money flows, quantitative easing, and currency wars at the front of my brain. As part of my presentation, I talked about how countries would seek to use currency devaluation in order to gain an advantage over other countries – that we were getting ready to enter an era of currency wars, which would be disguised as monetary policy trying to create economic growth. Which is exactly what we have today. Every now and then I get a few things right.

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Economics

Sunday, April 19, 2015

Michel Chevalier’s Case Against the Patent System / Economics / Economic Theory

By: MISES

Louis Rouanet writes: Michel Chevalier (1806–1879) was a very influential French economist during the second half of the nineteenth century. He is still widely known in France for being the architect of the Cobden-Chevalier Treaty of 1860 which was the free-trade agreement between France and Great Britain. Michel Chevalier is, however, less known for his major contribution to the intellectual property debate.1 Contrary to Jean Baptiste Say, Gustave de Molinari, and many other French economists, Chevalier fiercely opposed the patent system. As Fritz Machlup remarked: “Among French economists, Michel Chevalier was probably the most emphatic in the joint antagonism to tariffs and patents, declaring that both ‘stem from the same doctrine and result in the same abuses.’”

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Economics

Saturday, April 18, 2015

Inflation, Central Banks, and Business Cycles / Economics / Economic Theory

By: MISES

Jonathan Newman writes: The word “inflation” means different things to different people. One popular conception of inflation focuses on prices  —  all prices, actually. For these people, including some economists, “inflation” means a rise in the general price level, i.e., the goods and services we buy have higher price tags.

The other conception of inflation focuses on the money supply. Economists with this focus think of inflation as an increase in the amount of money in the economy. We’ll see that viewing inflation as a rise in prices can be misleading and ambiguous especially compared to viewing inflation as an increase in the money supply.

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Economics

Tuesday, April 14, 2015

Greece Debt Default and Drachma By End of April? / Economics / Eurozone Debt Crisis

By: GoldCore

- Greek government to withhold IMF payments according to the FT
- Prime Minister Tsipras denies preparing for default according to Reuters
- Government funds to run out by end of month
- Default would likely lead to “Grexit” and return to drachma
- EU may not withstand uncertainty surrounding break-up of monetary union
- Concern could trigger derivatives crisis and ‘Lehman moment’
- Like frogs in a pot of water that is very slowly coming to the boil

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Economics

Tuesday, April 14, 2015

China Margin Debt, Trading Accounts, Construction Equipment / Economics / China Economy

By: Mike_Shedlock

In response to my April 1, post China Margin Debt Soars to Record 1 Trillion Yuan; Another Central Bank Sponsored Bubble I received an email from reader Nicolas.

He writes ...

Hello Mish

Happy Monday. I find your output excellent an I hope that you are flattered that you are followed by private banks is Switzerland.

Quick question on your last note; please can you tell me what (Bloomberg/Reuters) code you use for Chinese Margin debt? i.e. where can I cross-reference the Trillion Yuan figure you quote?

Best regards and many thanks,

Nicolas

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Economics

Monday, April 13, 2015

The U.S. Economic Recovery: True or False? / Economics / US Economy

By: Arkadiusz_Sieron

The stronger than expected February's job market report fueled expectations that the Fed will increase interest rates sooner rather than later. We believed that market reaction was a bit exaggerated, and suggested in the Gold News Monitor not taking the hike for granted. The U.S. recovery is not as strong as it is commonly believed (as it was confirmed by the downgraded Fed's economic projections) and there are many downside risks, such as Greece's crisis, stubbornly low inflation, sluggish wage growth, the Chinese and global slowdown and too strong a greenback, which may stall the Fed's hike.

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Economics

Monday, April 13, 2015

New Credit Crunch Underway: Can Recession Be Far Behind? / Economics / Recession 2015

By: Mike_Shedlock

Credit Crunch Underway

Last week, Alexander Giryavets of Dynamika Capital L.L.C. pinged me with an article he had written on Recessionary Level in Credit Conditions.

His article was based on data from the March Credit Managers' Index by the National Association of Credit Management. The report is pretty damning.

First, let's take a look at some NACM snips. Emphasis in italics is mine. Following the NACM snips and some NACM explanations, we will return to a chart from Giryavets.

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Economics

Sunday, April 12, 2015

BLS Economic Propaganda, Truth – The Cure for Cognitive Dissonance / Economics / Propaganda

By: James_Quinn

“In a time of deceit telling the truth is a revolutionary act.” ― George Orwell

Every time the BLS puts out their monthly propaganda report on the wonderful state of the U.S. jobs market and states with a straight face the unemployment rate is a measly 5.5%, their corporate mouthpieces in the mainstream cheerleader media regurgitate the fake numbers and urge you to buy stocks. The millionaire talking heads on CNBC and the corrupt bought off politicians in D.C. make broad sweeping declarations about economic recovery, strong job growth, GDP advancement, record highs in the stock market, and soaring consumer confidence.

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Economics

Saturday, April 11, 2015

Why the American Consumer Will Never Be Back / Economics / US Economy

By: Raul_I_Meijer

That title may be a bit much, granted, because never is a very long time. I might instead have said “The American Consumer Won’t Be Back For A Very Long Time”. Still, I simply don’t see any time in the future that would see Americans start spending again at a rate anywhere near what would be required for an economic recovery. Looks pretty infinity and beyond to me.

However, that is by no means a generally accepted point of view in the financial press. There’s reality, and then there’s whatever it is they’re smoking, and never the twain shall meet. Admittedly, my title may be a bit provocative, but in my view not nearly as provocative, if not offensive, as Peter Coy’s at Bloomberg, who named his latest effort “US Consumers Will Open Their Wallets Soon Enough”.

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