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Market Oracle FREE Newsletter

Analysis Topic: Economic Trends Analysis

The analysis published under this topic are as follows.

Economics

Thursday, March 24, 2011

US Growth Expectations Neglect Weak Consumer Sector / Economics / US Economy

By: ECR_Research

Consensus on US growth this year is around 3.5%, and many economists and analysts expect the same growth rate, or a bit higher, the years thereafter. But where will this expected growth come from?

This is however the bright side of the medallion. There is, unfortunately, another side, which makes it really questionable how the US could possible attain a growth rate of 3.5% or higher for the coming years. There are several points to make.

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Economics

Thursday, March 24, 2011

Rumours of America's Economic Death Are Exaggerated: Credit Crunch Was a Blip / Economics / US Economy

By: Andrew_Butter

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleA good sign of impending economic death is when people stop lending money to you.

What’s strange is that in some quarters conventional wisdom has it that America is on death’s door with hyper-inflation just around the corner as a punishment for all the BAD money printing.

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Economics

Wednesday, March 23, 2011

The Insidious Economic Effects of Japan's Nuclear Disaster / Economics / Global Economy

By: John_Browne

While the world's attention has been focused on the physical destruction wrought by the Japanese earthquake and tsunami, the desperate attempts to contain the fallout from the shattered Fukushima Daiichi plant, and the daunting problems that Japan faces in rebuilding its infrastructure, few have truly illustrated how long-lasting and widespread the radiation's effects may be. There has also been little mention of how large radiological events affect economies of countries outside the immediate fallout zone. In truth, the disaster could make as much of an impact on investors in New York, London, or Sao Paolo as it makes on an investor in Tokyo.

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Economics

Wednesday, March 23, 2011

U.S. Jobs, Housing, and Petroleum Usage Illustrates Stimulus Fed Led Financial Recovery / Economics / Economic Recovery

By: Mike_Shedlock

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleIf the recovery was in full swing, why isn't petroleum usage?

Here are a pair of charts from reader Tim Wallace showing the percentage change in petroleum usage over time.

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Economics

Wednesday, March 23, 2011

U.S. Inflation Expectations is Key to Change in Fed Policy / Economics / Inflation

By: Asha_Bangalore

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleThe Fed's forecast, published last month, has inflation reaching the threshold of concern only in 2012/2013 (see Table 1) based on the personal consumption expenditure price index and a little later if the core personal consumption expenditure price index, which excludes food and energy, is the preferred price measure. The recent upward trend of the Consumer Price Index (CPI), both the all items index and the core CPI has raised the level of concern.

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Economics

Tuesday, March 22, 2011

UK Inflation Shock and Awe, CPI 4.4%, RPI 5.5%, Real Hits 7.1%! / Economics / Inflation

By: Nadeem_Walayat

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleWhilst David Cameron burns £2 million per day by playing at being Monty in the Libyan desert to distract the British population from the unfolding inflation crisis in the UK which soared shock and awe style by rising in February from CPI 4% to 4.4%, which effectively means that the economy has lost £5 billion on the month (annual -£57 billion), whilst the value of accumulated wealth has been eroded by £12 billion (annual -£154 billion), against which the value of government debt has been eroded by £4 billion (annual -£44 billion) and total UK debt by £22 billion (annual -£242 billion), which illustrates the governments unofficial policy of stealth defaulting on debt by means of high inflation, the price for which is being paid by all workers and savers.

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Economics

Tuesday, March 22, 2011

Tsunami Accelerates Japan's Economic Meltdown Driven by Debt and Demographics / Economics / Japan Economy

By: James_Quinn

Diamond Rated - Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleThe linear thinkers that dominate the mainstream media and the halls of power in Washington D.C. are assessing the series of disasters in Japan without connecting the dots of history. Their ideological desire to convince people that things will go back to normal in short order flies in the face of the facts. It makes me wonder whether these supposed thought leaders lack true intelligence or whether their ideological biases convince them to lie. At the end of the day it comes down to wealth, power and control. If those in power were to tell the truth about the true consequences of demographics, debt, disasters, and devaluation, their subjects would revolt and toss them out. Before the multiple disasters struck Japan last week, the sun was already setting on this empire. The recent tragic events will accelerate that descent.  

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Economics

Tuesday, March 22, 2011

Why Is U.S. Unemployment So High? / Economics / Unemployment

By: Robert_Murphy

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleEveryone knows that the unemployment situation is very bad, but the official figures (not surprisingly) understate the problem. In this article I'll outline the severity of the stalled labor market, and explain some of the major causes.

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Economics

Monday, March 21, 2011

Fed and Inflation / Economics / Inflation

By: Dr_Ron_Paul

Last week, the subcommittee which I chair held a hearing on monetary policy and rising prices. Whether we consider food, gasoline, or clothing, the cost of living is increasing significantly. True inflation is defined as an increase in the money supply. All other things being equal, an increase in the money supply leads to a rise in prices. Inflation's destructive effects have ruined societies from the Roman Empire to Weimar Germany to modern-day Zimbabwe.

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Economics

Monday, March 21, 2011

Why Deflation Will Torpedo the Economic Recovery / Economics / Deflation

By: Clif_Droke

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleThe rising price of food and fuel is garnering more and more attention in the economic news headlines. There’s a good reason for this since a continued increase in the oil price could easily upset the economic recovery and send the U.S. economy tumbling back into recession. It could also have an adverse impact on the financial market and not surprisingly, analysts are already beginning to draw parallels between today’s stock market and the one of 2008, which was hurt by (among other things) a record high oil price.

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Economics

Monday, March 21, 2011

American Jobs, Factories and Investment: The Picture is Grim / Economics / US Economy

By: Gerard_Jackson

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleThe Washington Post recently published a story revealing that if the hidden jobless were included in the unemployment rate it would jump to 10.5 per cent. (Hidden workforce challenges domestic economic recovery) This is a damning indictment of Obama's economic policies and Bernanke's monetary mismanagement. Even more damning is the fact that Obama appears completely unfazed by the situation. Now he did not create this recession any more than Bush created the 2000 recession -- irrespective of what America's utterly corrupt media assert -- but his policies are responsible for making it worse. To say that America is in an even more frightful mess than would otherwise be the case because of this man's dogmatic leftism and mindless hostility to free markets would be a severe understatement. However, recriminations -- no matter how well deserved -- will not alleviate the situation.

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Economics

Sunday, March 20, 2011

Floating Dollar, Milton Friedman's Contraption / Economics / Inflation

By: Gary_North

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleOn March 12, David Stockman gave a lecture at the Mises Institute in Alabama. I was in attendance. It was a rousing speech, filled with funny one-liners. It reminded me of Patch Adams' listing of euphemisms for death in the hospital room of the guy with terminal cancer. It got us all laughing.

The speech had four important points. First, the Treasury-Federal Reserve bailout in October 2008 was not necessary to save the financial markets. It was necessary to save three or four finance companies that had cooked their books and were facing exposure, meaning write-downs.

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Economics

Sunday, March 20, 2011

U.S. Real Unemployment Rate 10.2%, Underemployment at 20% / Economics / Unemployment

By: Mike_Shedlock

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleI am very skeptical of BLS unemployment rates inching lower. Not only do the BLS reports discount millions of marginally attached and discouraged workers but BLS seasonal adjustments seem more than a bit unusual.

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Economics

Friday, March 18, 2011

Japan Disaster, How Bad Will it Get? / Economics / Japan Economy

By: Money_Morning

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleMoney Morning Chief Investment Strategist Keith Fitz-Gerald has spent almost every summer for the past two decades at his family home in Kyoto - which is why he knows Japan in a way that few other U.S. traders could ever hope to.

As part of Money Morning's continued coverage of the disaster in Japan, Fitz-Gerald is sharing those insights with readers. Here are the highlights of a question-and-answer session we held with Fitz-Gerald late yesterday Thursday).

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Economics

Friday, March 18, 2011

U.S. Factory Production Maintains Upward Trajectory / Economics / Economic Recovery

By: Asha_Bangalore

Industrial production declined 0.1% in February, reflecting a 4.5% drop in production at the nation's utilities and a 0.4% increase in factory production. Factory production accounts for the major part of the industrial production index. 

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Economics

Friday, March 18, 2011

Food and Energy Send U.S. Consumer Prices Sharply Higher / Economics / Inflation

By: Asha_Bangalore

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleThe Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose 0.5% in February after posting increases of 0.4% in December and January.  Significant food price gains in the January-February months and three consecutive monthly jumps in energy prices have been the main culprits behind the recent upward trend of the CPI. The CPI has risen 2.1% from a year ago, while the 3-month annualized increase is 5.6%.

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Economics

Thursday, March 17, 2011

Is U.S. Inflation Already at 9%? / Economics / Inflation

By: Money_Morning

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleRising prices are hitting U.S. consumers a lot harder than the U.S. Federal Reserve - or the U.S. government - would have us believe. The government-issued consumer price index (CPI) for January showed that "core inflation" - which includes prices for all items except food and energy - was up only 1% from the same month the year before.

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Economics

Thursday, March 17, 2011

Food and Energy Prices Lift U.S. Wholesale Inflation / Economics / Inflation

By: Asha_Bangalore

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleThe Producer Price Index (PPI) of Finished Goods rose 1.6% in February following a 0.8% gain in the prior month.  A 3.9% increase in food prices and a 3.3% jump in energy prices explain a large part of the increase in the headline number.  Higher prices for natural gas (+3.2%), gasoline (+3.7%) and heating oil (+14.6%) contributed for the noticeably higher energy price index.  The February increase of food prices (+3.9%) is the largest since November 1974 (+4.2%). 

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Economics

Wednesday, March 16, 2011

Does Economic Growth Cause Inflation? / Economics / Inflation

By: Frank_Shostak

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleThe yearly rate of growth of personal consumer outlays jumped from 2.5 percent in August last year to 3.8 percent this January.

The growth momentum of personal income has been pushing ahead strongly since May last year.

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Economics

Wednesday, March 16, 2011

China Ready to Pull the World Economy Out of the Doldrums? / Economics / China Economy

By: ECR_Research

Renate van Ginderen writes: The role of China’s 12th Five-Year Plan

China’s twelfth Five-Year plan promises reform in all key areas of the economy. The plan will have to guide China between 2011 and 2016 towards a more sustainable, balanced, stable, and coordinated growth model. However, the problem is that it actually does not differ much from the eleventh Five-Year plan announced in 2006, whereas that plan did only do so much. The new real annual growth target is reduced from 7,5% to ‘just’ 7%: enormous in Western terms, but drastically lower than the 9,3% attained in 2010. So will this drag the economy down? Probably not. The growth target for the 11th Five-Year Plan has been overshoot largely. It is much more likely the central government will not really succeed in redirecting its economy, as will be discussed below.

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