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Analysis Topic: Economic Trends Analysis

The analysis published under this topic are as follows.

Economics

Wednesday, August 11, 2010

Major leading Economic Indicator in Free Fall! / Economics / Double Dip Recession

By: Claus_Vogt

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleIn my July 14 Money and Markets column, I explained how the Economic Cycle Research Institute’s (ECRI) Weekly Leading Index confirmed my bearish forecast.

Back then, the index’s growth rate was minus 8.3 percent. And as you can see in the chart below, it is continuing to freefall — tumbling to minus 10.3 percent for the week ending July 30 …

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Economics

Wednesday, August 11, 2010

Bullish Outlook for European Economies, U.S. QE2 Problems / Economics / Euro-Zone

By: John_Mauldin

Diamond Rated - Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleThis week we look at some mostly bullish analysis from my friends at GaveKal for the Outside the Box. Much of the letter is devoted to looking at why Europe may fare better than many think (which will make uber-European bull David Kotok happy to read!). But be very sure to read the last page as Steve Vannelli analyzes the latest speculation about the Fed and quantitative easing. All those calling for QE2 may not actually do what they think it will. His conclusion?

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Economics

Wednesday, August 11, 2010

The Economic Stimulus is Dead - Long Live the Stimulus / Economics / Economic Stimulus

By: Adam_Lass

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleA trillion dollars still hasn't fixed the jobs problem. Washington's solution: change the name to "deflation fighting" and print even more!

How do you know when an idea has failed?

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Economics

Tuesday, August 10, 2010

Why U.S. Jobs Have Gone AWOL / Economics / Employment

By: Michael_Pento

There are three primary reasons why the US is suffering from structurally high unemployment: a pervasively irresponsible monetary policy, the continued attenuation of our manufacturing base, and an overleveraged consumer who must now reconcile his balance sheet. In reality, the latter two conditions are a direct result of the first. They are the result of a government that seeks to micromanage the cost of money and the rate of economic growth.

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Economics

Tuesday, August 10, 2010

Economic Uncertainties No Longer! / Economics / Double Dip Recession

By: Sy_Harding

Fed Chairman Bernanke can move on from his warning of a couple of months ago that there are “unusual uncertainties” in the economy. There may still be uncertainties in the stock market, but no longer in the economy! It is almost surely headed into a recessionary period again.

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Economics

Tuesday, August 10, 2010

U.S. Economic Outlook Update, Is the Downturn Finally Over, if not, When it will end? / Economics / US Economy

By: Matthew_Ehrlich

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleLiving in Asia for most of the past ten years and having spent another twenty traveling between Wall Street and Asia, I am constantly being asked if the US economic downturn is finally over and if not, when it will end. Not an easy question and if you are going to even attempt to understand my answer, you have to look at some of the MECHANICS of how it started, how it grew, how we got to where we are now and the possible paths to bring about an end.

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Economics

Tuesday, August 10, 2010

The Deflation Bogey / Economics / Economic Theory

By: William_Anderson

Diamond Rated - Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleThe Paul Reveres of the economics profession are riding their horses, warning Americans, "Deflation is coming! Deflation is coming!" From Paul Krugman to Joseph Gagnon to the various mainstream news publications, the message is the same — the government needs to induce inflation now, or else the economy will sink further into the Slew of Despond and unemployment will increase.

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Economics

Tuesday, August 10, 2010

In Defense of Deflation / Economics / Deflation

By: Douglas_French

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleThe Obama stimulus and bailouts haven't decreased unemployment rates or bankruptcy filings while home prices and home sales have fallen and can't get up. PIMCO's Bill Gross told Bloomberg this can all be fixed with nearly zero interest rates and additional debt to stimulate the animal spirits of investors and entrepreneurs. The federal-funds rate has been pegged at 0 to .25% since December 16, 2008, and Uncle Sam's debt is $13.3 trillion and counting. If this hasn't goosed the animal spirits, what will?

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Economics

Monday, August 09, 2010

The Form of Saving Matters For Free-market Fractional Reserve Banking / Economics / Economic Theory

By: Robert_Murphy

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleAlthough Austrian economists agree on most of the "big picture" issues, even so there are some internal controversies. One of the most heated debates within the Austrian camp centers on the economic benefits (or lack thereof) of the practice of fractional-reserve banking. Just about every Austrian today thinks that our current financial system — cartelized and propped up by the government — is prone to excessive inflation and the boom-bust cycle.

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Economics

Monday, August 09, 2010

Cutting Government Spending Is So Hard to Do / Economics / Government Spending

By: MISES

Diamond Rated - Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleGrant M. Nülle writes: In recent months, fiscal austerity among governments on all levels has come to the political fore, albeit for different reasons.

In some cases, such as Greece, belt-tightening measures were essential to avert a sovereign-debt crisis. The Greek government enacted significant deficit-reduction solutions in order to receive monetary aid from the International Monetary Fund and European Union. In so doing, it continued the de facto monetization of Greek debt by the European Central Bank.

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Economics

Monday, August 09, 2010

Why All the Double Dip Recession Talk Is Pure B.S. … / Economics / Great Depression II

By: Larry_Edelson

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleIf the recent slew of bad economic news coming out of the U.S. hasn’t convinced you that the economy stinks, then it’s time to wake up and smell the coffee. Because …

All the recent talk about a double-dip recession is nothing more than pure B.S.

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Economics

Monday, August 09, 2010

Fooled by Economic Stimulus, U.S. Economy Structural Problems Still Intact / Economics / US Economy

By: Mike_Shedlock

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleBill Watkins, a California Lutheran University professor, provides a nice summary on New Geography of the failure of various stimulus efforts to do anything meaningful in the wake of a collapse by Lehman, a collapse he says is a "regime shift".

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Economics

Monday, August 09, 2010

U.S. Economy Between a Rock and a Hard Place Facing Dire Options / Economics / US Economy

By: Lorimer_Wilson

Best Financial Markets Analysis Article“The U.S. is in an untenable position - between a rock and a hard place - in an inescapable debt trap - where the options are, at best, dire – either hyperinflation or a deflationary depression! It would seem that all we can do is ride out the storm in a boat laden with gold” said Jeff Nielson (BullionBullsCanada.com) in a recent speech* going on to say:

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Economics

Monday, August 09, 2010

UK Economy GDP Growth Forecast 2010 to 2015 / Economics / UK Economy

By: Nadeem_Walayat

Diamond Rated - Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleThis analysis is a continuation of the UK Debt Forecast article (UK ConLib Government to Use INFLATION Stealth Tax to Erode Value of Public Debt ) on the impact of the new coalition government having effectively hit the reset button on the UK economy to now primarily target a reduction in the £156 billion annual budget deficit which aims to suck £113 billion a year out of the economy by 2015-16 by means of swinging public sector spending cuts and tax rises. The government has now clearly reversed the Labour governments policy of continuous fiscal expansion and set the country on a course for severe fiscal contraction for at least the next 3 years.

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Economics

Monday, August 09, 2010

Hyperinflation Warning / Economics / HyperInflation

By: Howard_Katz

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleOne hears much discussion of hyperinflation on the gold web sites.  It is a worst case scenario and used to alarm and excite.  It is used to designate a period when prices are rising very rapidly, the favorite example being Germany of 1914-23, and during this time prices rose by very close to one trillion times.  That is, a piece of bread which started off costing 1 mark ended costing one trillion marks.  So it is not merely in today’s world that we are using numbers above 1 trillion.  But it is an instructive period of history, and we must always keep in mind that those who do not learn from history are doomed to repeat it.

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