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Analysis Topic: Economic Trends Analysis

The analysis published under this topic are as follows.

Economics

Wednesday, January 05, 2011

Price Inflation to Pay the Debt / Economics / Inflation

By: Richard_Daughty

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleThe lights of the Mogambo Security System (MSS) glowed dimly in the gloom of the bunker as I cowered in the darkness, and there were no sounds except the thumping, thumping, thumping of my terrified heart at The World Outside (TWO), a place I consider to be a vicious, hostile environment containing not only enemies of every sort, both real and imagined, but family members who want to know if I am coming out for dinner, or to tell me that someone is on the phone for me, or that somebody is going to greedily eat the last of my treasured Double-Stuf Oreos, somehow trying to get me outside and into their clutches so that they can take all my money and ask me to sign various forms and documents.

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Economics

Wednesday, January 05, 2011

FOMC Meeting Minutes Indicate Fed Sees "Slow Progress" Towards Full Employment / Economics / US Economy

By: Asha_Bangalore

The Fed is focused on meeting its dual mandate of price stability and full employment.  In this regard, the minutes indicate that the FOMC sees "only a gradual pickup in growth with slow progress toward maximum employment."  A few participants held that an upside risk could emerge from a sharp growth in bank lending, given the easy monetary policy stance in place.  At the same time, there was a great deal of concern about the housing market, particularly the large supply of unsold homes. 

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Economics

Wednesday, January 05, 2011

Economists Can't Forecast for Toffee, In Defense of the “Old Always” / Economics / Economic Theory

By: John_Mauldin

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleLong time readers of Outside the Box are familiar with the name of James Montier, who is now with GMO in their London office. Today, James, with his usual acerbic wit, takes on the notion of the "New Normal" and offers us a defense of the "Old Always." James is a value investor and sees mean reversion as still alive and kicking, where some proponents of the New Normal think we should throw out all of the old aphorisms. While I am in the New Normal camp, I also agree with James. This makes for some quick and thought-provoking reading.

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Economics

Tuesday, January 04, 2011

The ISM Manufacturing Survey Kicks Off the New Year on a Bullish Note / Economics / Economic Recovery

By: Asha_Bangalore

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleThe U.S. manufacturing sector closed the year on a strong footing and kicked off 2011 with bullish news on the first trading. The ISM manufacturing composite index moved up to 57.0 in December vs. 56.6 in November, the highest reading since May 2010. The sharp increases in indexes tracking new orders (60.9 vs. 56. 6 in November) and production (60.7 vs. 55 in November) accounted for the higher composite index in December. Indexes measuring employment, vendor deliveries, inventories, exports and imports declined in December but are holding above 50.0. Readings above 50 denote an expansion while those below 50.0 are indicative of a contraction.

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Economics

Tuesday, January 04, 2011

Australia Heading for Economic Crunch as Families Face Financial Collapse / Economics / Austrailia

By: Mike_Shedlock

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleThe party is over in Australia. Many anti-dollar investors and Pollyannas living down under just don't realize it yet. Nonetheless, Australia faces an economic crunch as family finances collapse under the burden of record debts, rising interest rates and utility bills.

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Economics

Monday, January 03, 2011

China’s Economy Is Being Pulled in All Directions / Economics / China Economy

By: Barry_Elias

I recently suggested it was possible to have high unemployment and inflation at the same time. Zimbabwe experienced unemployment above 90 percent while hyperinflation took over.

The basis for this is rather simple: demand for basic necessities, such as water and food, remain relatively constant irrespective of income.

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Economics

Friday, December 31, 2010

The Economic Flop That Was 2010 / Economics / Global Economy

By: Bill_Bonner

The year is almost over. Time to write the obituaries.

What kind of year was it? A flop. A failure. A loser. Just like we said it would be.

It was a “year that fizzled,” writes David Leonhardt in The New York Times.

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Economics

Thursday, December 30, 2010

Is Big Government a Myth? / Economics / Government Spending

By: Robert_Murphy

Diamond Rated - Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleLately the supporters of big government have deployed an interesting twist to their arguments, claiming that it is a dirty right-wing lie that government has grown under the Obama administration. Unlike arguments over economic theory, surely this should be an objective exercise in looking up the facts.

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Economics

Wednesday, December 29, 2010

Is Inflation Directly Tied to the Money Supply? / Economics / Inflation

By: Justice_Litle

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleSome argue that increased money supply (freshly printed dollars) automatically translates to inflation. This is not exactly true, and it’s important to understand why.

How do you define inflation? In some ways it's a slippery thing, like trying to nail Jell-O to a tree. One common definition amounts to "a general and sustained rise in the price of goods and services." Another is "a persistent decline in the purchasing power of money."

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Economics

Wednesday, December 29, 2010

Monetary Tightening Threatens China’s Economic Prospects / Economics / China Economy

By: Claus_Vogt

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleChina’s role on the global stage has grown tremendously during the past several years. And there are valid reasons to believe this trend will continue. But it will not go as smoothly as many pundits assume …

On Christmas Day, Beijing raised the benchmark deposit and lending rates by 25 basis points (bps) to 2.75 percent and 5.81 percent respectively. This is the second step in the current tightening cycle, following the first surprise 25 bps hike on October 19.

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Economics

Wednesday, December 29, 2010

Bogus Economic Statistics Used as a Coverup Adding Fuel to the Financial Fire / Economics / Economic Statistics

By: Bob_Chapman

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleMr. Bernanke, Chairman of the Federal Reserve, a private corporation, would have us believe that, quantitative easing is the only way to save the US economy and to reverse the unemployment problem. He conveniently forgets to tell you that he authored a paper in 1988 with Mr. Michael Baskin that concluded that what Mr. Bernanke is doing with QE does not work. He told watchers of “60 Minutes” that the jobless rate would have been far higher; something like it was in the “Great Depression” at 25%. If Mr. Bernanke had taken time to have his minions do the research, he would have found that U3 at the peak of the “Great Depression” was 25.2% and U6 was 37.6%. As we write U3 is 9.8% and U6 is 17%.

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Economics

Wednesday, December 29, 2010

The Emperor Keynes Still Has No Clothes / Economics / Economic Theory

By: Gary_North

Diamond Rated - Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleIt is time to consider the recommendation and economic analysis of Yale University economist Robert Shiller. He is widely respected, the co-designer of the Case-Shiller index, which traces housing prices in 20 American cities. He coined the phrase "irrational exuberance," which was made famous by Alan Greenspan in the mid-1990s.

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Economics

Tuesday, December 28, 2010

Hyperinflation, Never Say Never / Economics / HyperInflation

By: Captain_Hook

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleIn reviewing the charts from the Chart Room over the weekend I came to the conclusion that in terms of timing the markets you don’t want to think in terms of price right now, but in terms of time, where again, we are not looking for a blow-off top in the present intermediate move until sometime in the first quarter next year, with early February the favored target from both historical and cyclical perspectives. How did I come to this conclusion? Answer: As you will see in the charts below, several breakouts and trend blow-offs are in the process of tracing out, meaning more time is needed for this to occur no matter how overbought technical conditions in the market are at this time. And while it’s true that everything from stocks to commodities are intermediate degree overbought, what this means is conditions will become even more overbought, and as a result, it’s possible hyperinflationary conditions in the US could at a minimum be tested.

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Economics

Tuesday, December 28, 2010

Theft by Mercantilism, China and the Keynesian Trap / Economics / Economic Theory

By: Gary_North

Diamond Rated - Best Financial Markets Analysis Article"Thou shalt not steal, except by majority vote." ~ The Gospel According to Keynes, Chapter 1, verse 1.

Keynesianism is an economic philosophy based on the idea that the free market required intervention from the civil government in order to maintain justice and efficiency. The free market is both inefficient and unfair to the common man, Keynesianism teaches.

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Economics

Tuesday, December 28, 2010

America’s Second Great Depression 2010 Year-end Update (Part 2) / Economics / Great Depression II

By: Mike_Stathis

 

Diamond Rated - Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleI continue where I left off from Part one of this report. [1]

Ever since the summer of 2009, economists from both Washington and Wall Street have told us that an economic recovery was in progress, but the data reveals a strikingly different picture. Some even insisted that a recovery began in late spring. You should note the source of these claims, as well as their agendas, so as to determine the underlying motives for disseminating this propaganda.

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