Analysis Topic: Economic Trends Analysis
The analysis published under this topic are as follows.
Thursday, January 20, 2011
Systemic Global Economic Crisis At the Crossroads of Three Roads of Global Chaos / Economics / Global Debt Crisis
By: Global_Research
This GEAB issue marks the fifth anniversary of the publication of the Global Europe Anticipation Bulletin. In January 2006, on the occasion of the first issue, the LEAP/E2020 team indicated that a period of four to seven years was opening up which would be characterized by the “Fall of the Dollar Wall”, an event similar to the fall of the Berlin Wall which resulted, in the following years, in the collapse of the communist bloc then that of the USSR. Today, in this GEAB issue, which presents our thirty-two anticipations for 2011, we believe that the coming year will be a pivotal year in the roll out of this process between 2010 and 2013. It will be, in any case, a ruthless year because it will mark the entry into the terminal phase of the world before the crisis (1).
Thursday, January 20, 2011
China's Inflation Problem Looms Large / Economics / Inflation
By: Peter_Schiff
The global economy has become so unbalanced that even government ministers who would normally have trouble explaining supply or demand clearly recognize that something has to give. To a very large extent the distortions are caused by China's long-standing policy of pegging its currency, the yuan, to the U.S. dollar. But as China's economy gains strength, and the American economy weakens, the cost and difficulty of maintaining the peg become ever greater, and eventually outweigh the benefits that the policy supposedly delivers to China. In the first few weeks of 2011 fresh evidence has arisen that shows just how difficult it has become for Beijing.
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Thursday, January 20, 2011
An Economic Recovery Unto Death / Economics / Economic Recovery
By: Clif_Droke
In the Bible there is a reference to a “sin unto death.” In the realm of U.S. economic policy a situation is developing that could easily lead to a “death” of the current recovery. Ironically, this brewing economic destruction is springing from the same policies that are responsible for the recovery (call it a “recovery unto death”). These policies are supposed to lead the U.S. out of recession and into a “new tomorrow” but as we’ll discuss here, the end result is likely to be something far short of what policy leaders envision.
Wednesday, January 19, 2011
The Politics of Deflation / Economics / Deflation
By: Vijay_Boyapati
The reason that political establishments have always been biased against monetary deflation[1] can be found in the manner in which wealth transfer occurs under inflationary and deflationary environments.
During an inflationary credit expansion, wealth is transferred from the public in general to the earliest recipients of the newly created credit money. In practice, the earliest recipients are interest groups with the strongest political connections to the state and, in particular, the state institutions that control monetary policy (i.e., the Federal Reserve in the United States). Importantly, the wealth transfer that takes place during an inflation is hidden and largely unrecognized by the majority of the population. The population is unaware that the supply of money is increasing and the attendant rise in prices, ostensibly beneficial to business, initially
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Wednesday, January 19, 2011
Malaysia’s Rich Natural Resources: The Next Great Asian Investment Opportunity / Economics / Emerging Markets
By: Tony_Sagami
Last week I flew to Penang, Malaysia, and traipsed around the countryside in sweltering heat and humidity looking for the next great Asian investment opportunity. I found several amazing ones. But some background first …
Penang is a fascinating island city that sits a few miles on the Indian Ocean side of the Malaysian mainland near the northern mouth of the Straits of Malacca. It is this strategic location that turned Penang into one of the most important commercial trading centers in Southeast Asia.
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Wednesday, January 19, 2011
Protect Your Wealth from Central Bank Lies on Inflation / Economics / Inflation
By: Claus_Vogt
If you believe what central banks say and you plan your investments accordingly, you could be in for some big surprises.
Consider, for example, some of the lies spouting forth from the U.S. Fed and the European Central Bank (ECB) …
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Wednesday, January 19, 2011
Defining Economics / Economics / Economic Theory
By: Richard_Daughty
I have grown to think that the definition of "economics" was the one found in the Mogambo Big Book Of Economic Stuff (MBBOES), which is, "The horrific inflation in prices caused by evil and/or stupid people creating excess money, perpetrators of which comprise a long, long list of evil people and/or stupid people, starting with the Federal Reserve, Congress, and the odious Supreme Court, whose particular idiocy is their traitorous decision to allow a fiat currency, instead of the dollar being defined as a specific weight of gold as required by the freaking Constitution of the United States, for crying out loud, a specific mandate purposely put there by the Founding Fathers to prevent inflation in the money supply, which causes inflation in prices, which is the Number One Killer Of Economies (NOKOE). See also Doomed, We're Freaking."
Wednesday, January 19, 2011
Tossing the U.S. Consumer Under the Bus And Insanely Expecting an Economic Recovery / Economics / US Economy
By: D_Sherman_Okst
I’ve been pouring through the Fed Reserve’s recent release of circa 2005 FOMC meeting transcripts. The most striking observation that one can make is that the consumer - the very lifeblood that determines whether our economy will live or die - has been discarded.
Discarded --- as in tossed under the bus.
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Wednesday, January 19, 2011
UK Inflation CPI Hits 3.7%, Higher than Zimbabwe, Britain Sleep Walking towards Wage Price Spiral / Economics / Inflation
By: Nadeem_Walayat
UK Inflation for December 2010 soared to CPI 3.7% from 3.3% which is set against academic economist expectations of just a few hours earlier of 3.3%. This now puts UK inflation Higher than that of hyperinflation prone Zimbabwe's CPI at 3.2%, thus making a mockery of long standing commentary in the press that it was ridiculous to compare Britain's inflation problems with that of Zimbabwe.
Tuesday, January 18, 2011
Is Mexico a Country on Fire? / Economics / Mexico
By: Frank_Holmes
Just a three-hour drive from our offices in San Antonio lies an entrance to Mexico, one of the most promising but precarious investment opportunities in global markets. Like stepping on an ant hill, President Felipe Calderon’s war against the drug cartels has created chaos but the country’s economy has proven much tougher than many thought.
Tuesday, January 18, 2011
The Many Euphemisms for Money Creation Inflation, Confused Language, Confused Thinking / Economics / Inflation
By: Thorsten_Polleit
According to the teachings of the Greek philosopher Parmenides, language illustrates human thinking (and reasoning); confused language is thus tantamount to confused thinking; confused thinking, in turn, provokes unintended acts and undesired outcomes.[1]
"Doublespeak" — a term that rose to prominence through the work of Eric Blair (1903–1950), more famously known as George Orwell — is a conspicuous form of confused language and thought. The term doublespeak was actually derived from the terms "newspeak" and "doublethink," which Orwell used in his novel Nineteen Eighty-Four, published in 1949.[2] While under suppressive Party instruction, the mind of the protagonist, Winston Smith
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Tuesday, January 18, 2011
U.S. Economic Growth Recession Continues, QE2's Problems / Economics / US Economy
By: John_Mauldin
Long-time readers of Outside the Box are familiar with the names Dr. Lacy Hunt and Van Hoisington. They are a regular feature here, as quite frankly, anything that Lacy writes or says I pay serious attention to. This is their regular quarterly report, where they outline seven things that are likely to retard US growth. An easy read, but take the time to think this through.
Hoisington Investment Management Company (www.hoisingtonmgt.com) is a registered investment advisor specializing in fixed-income portfolios for large institutional clients. Located in Austin, Texas, the firm has over $4 billion under management, composed of corporate and public funds, foundations, endowments, Taft-Hartley funds, and insurance companies.
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Monday, January 17, 2011
Is There a Conservative Case for QE? / Economics / Economic Theory
By: Robert_Murphy
I recently discussed David Frum's lament that conservative Republicans are defecting from "respectable" economists and joining the ranks of the Austrians. One of the reasons for this is that many conservative pundits — Frum included — are Keynesians, plain and simple. Many rank-and-file conservatives are recognizing that it makes no sense to lambast Obama's fiscal-stimulus package in one breath and praise Bernanke's monetary stimulus in the next.
Monday, January 17, 2011
UK Inflation Forecast 2011, Imminent Spike to Above CPI 4%, RPI 6% / Economics / Inflation
By: Nadeem_Walayat
The last UK inflation data came in at CPI 3.3% and RPI 4.7% for November 2010, with real inflation at just above 6%, this is set against a continuous mantra in the mainstream press by pseudo economists / journalists that high inflation of above 3% was always just temporary and that it would resolve in a sub 2% rate by the end of the year (2010). Now a year on the same people that had misguided their readerships for virtually the whole of 2010 into avoiding inflation protection strategies that the coalition government has proceeded to strip away during 2010 such as scrapping of the RPI linked Index Linked National Savings certificates in June 2010, and are only now warning their readership's of the consequences of persistently high inflation that looks set to continue during 2011.
Sunday, January 16, 2011
America Replicating Japan's Depression / Economics / Great Depression II
By: Stephen_Lendman
An except from Franck Biancheri's new book titled, "World Crisis: The Path to the World Afterwards" states:"The (current) financial and economic crisis....marks the end of the world order established after 1945." In 1991, the Soviet Union dissolved, and since fall 2007, we've "witness(ed) the accelerated decomposition of the 'Western pillar' with" America advancing disintegration.
Saturday, January 15, 2011
Be Wary of Rosy Economic Outlooks for 2011 … and Profit Along the Way! / Economics / Global Economy
By: Bryan_Rich
Last year Byron Wien, the former Morgan Stanley strategist, former billion-dollar hedge fund strategist, current Vice-Chairman of Blackstone and highly touted market prognosticator predicted 2010 would be a V-shaped recovery for the U.S. economy.
He was wrong …
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Saturday, January 15, 2011
The Global Economic Slump: Dramatic Job Losses in all Major Regions of the World / Economics / Unemployment
By: Global_Research
Prof David McNally writes: I have never accepted the postmodernist contention that contemporary capitalism is all about smoke and mirrors. The notion that ideology and illusion make the system go round strikes me as another mode of reductionism – this one based on culture rather than, say, economics. But it must be said that, at first blush, the mainstream business media certainly offers some sustenance for the smoke and mirrors thesis.
Saturday, January 15, 2011
Retail Sales Suggest Strong Q4 Consumer Spending / Economics / Economic Recovery
By: Asha_Bangalore
Retail sales increased 0.6% in December after a 0.8% gain in the prior month. Building materials (+2.0%), autos (+1.0%), gasoline (+1.6%), and furniture (+1.0%) accounted for the relatively large gains among the components, while purchases of food (-0.6%), electronics (-0.6%) and clothing (-0.2%) dropped. Unit auto sales count in the computation of consumer spending in the GDP report, which advanced to annual rate of 12.5 million units in December. Autos sales rose 29% in the final three months of the year compared with a 0.3% gain in the third quarter.
Friday, January 14, 2011
We Could be in Great Depression II – But We’re Not! / Economics / US Economy
By: Sy_Harding
Global financial authorities proved to be quite adept at reacting quickly, step-by-panicked step, to the financial crisis as it unfolded, making hasty dramatic moves dreamed up on the fly in panicked weekend meetings.
That the efforts worked is obvious. We are not in Great Depression II.
Friday, January 14, 2011
Wholesale Price Index Lifted by Higher Energy, Food and Cigarette Prices / Economics / Inflation
By: Asha_Bangalore
The Producer Price Index (PPI) for Finished Goods rose 1.1% in December after a 0.8% increase in the prior month. According to the Labor Department, about 75% of the increase in finished goods price index was from the 3.7% jump of the energy price index. Of the energy items in this index, gasoline prices posted the largest increase. Higher food prices (+0.8%) also made a contribution to the overall wholesale price index, a large part of this increase (75%) is traced to the 22.8% jump in prices of fresh and dry vegetables. In 2010, the wholesale price index has risen 4.0% after a 4.3% jump in 2009 and a nearly 1.0% drop in 2008.