Analysis Topic: Economic Trends Analysis
The analysis published under this topic are as follows.
Monday, March 13, 2017
The U.S. Economy, Post-Payrolls & Pre-FOMC / Economics / US Economy
By: Gary_Tanashian
This week’s Notes From the Rabbit Hole included a little Payrolls/Wages related economic discussion before moving on to the usual coverage of stock markets, commodities, precious metals, bonds, currencies and related indicators and market internals. With FOMC on tap there will be more data noise directly ahead, but then I expect markets to smooth out into what is looking like a sensible short and intermediate-term plan.
Monday, March 13, 2017
Is Stagflation Stalking? The Answer Is Critical To Your Financial Health! / Economics / Stagflation
By: Gordon_T_Long
It is important to anticipate whether Stagflation is stalking because the yield curve will start pricing it in which will place equity yields, earnings and PE growth multiples at risk.
We believe there are clear signs of stagflation already occurring and according to the recent Global Fund Manger Survey, many believe if we don't already have elevated Inflation and an emerging period of stagflation, we can soon expect it!
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Friday, March 10, 2017
Why the US Will Lose Tens of Millions of Jobs in the Next 20 Years / Economics / Employment
By: John_Mauldin
A significant part of Trump’s campaign centered on the angst of the white middle class and the ongoing loss of jobs in the Rust Belt. And that focus gave him his margin of victory.
Trump promised to bring those jobs back, a sentiment that resonated powerfully with the electorate. The problem is—as we’ve talked about previously—that at least 80–90% of manufacturing jobs were lost not to companies moving factories to China or Mexico but to increased automation.
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Friday, March 10, 2017
American Men Are Giving Up on Jobs / Economics / Unemployment
By: John_Mauldin
I’ve written about this before, but there are 10 million American males between the age of 24 and 64 who have literally dropped out of the workforce. It means that they have given up on finding a job or are simply not looking.
But, focusing on just one subset among those who are 24–64, we see that white working-class males’ labor force participation rate has dropped to 59%.
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Friday, March 10, 2017
Is Inflation a problem? / Economics / Inflation
By: Submissions
Chris Marchese writes: Since “Surprise 16” when Donald Trump won the presidential election, he has made it clear that if he has his way, he will enact inflationary policies. These include increasing defense spending and infrastructure spending, while at the same time reducing government revenue via decreased income and corporate tax rates.
To achieve this objective, money must be created, which could be referred to as “helicopter money.” This is a more direct way of increasing the money supply, using fiscal policy as opposed to monetary policy.
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Wednesday, March 08, 2017
Inflation the Opium of the Masses, What The Hell Is Going On? (2) / Economics / Inflation
By: James_Quinn
In Part One of this article I exposed the establishment narrative of a strong economy as rubbish by providing hard data regarding imploding gasoline usage, failing bricks and mortar retailers and plunging restaurant sales.
“Inflation may indeed bring benefits for a short time to favored groups, but only at the expense of others. And in the long run it brings ruinous consequences to the whole community. Even a relatively mild inflation distorts the structure of production. It leads to the overexpansion of some industries at the expense of others. This involves a misapplication and waste of capital. When the inflation collapses, or is brought to a halt, the misdirected capital investment—whether in the form of machines, factories or office buildings—cannot yield an adequate return and loses the greater part of its value.Nor is it possible to bring inflation to a smooth and gentle stop, and so avert a subsequent depression.” – Henry Hazlitt – Economics in One Lesson
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Wednesday, March 08, 2017
Accelerating Economic Reform Execution in China / Economics / China Economy
By: Dan_Steinbock
After political consolidation, China is ready to begin a broader implementation of structural reforms. That is vital to double per capita income in 2010-20.After President Xi assumed office in fall 2012, Chinese leadership has steadily moved toward more comprehensive structural reforms. As evidenced by the recent Two Sessions in Beijing, these reforms are about to move to a new level.
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Monday, March 06, 2017
Trump's Disruptive Approach to Trade / Economics / Global Economy
By: STRATFOR
A shift in U.S. trade policy that follows the outline presented today to Congress would upend the foundations of global trade as it is currently conducted. The biggest change in the approach that the administration of President Donald Trump may take is its assertion that U.S. sovereignty in trade disputes could empower it to supersede rulings made by the World Trade Organization (WTO).
Friday, March 03, 2017
This Chart Reveals How China Is Faking Its Economic Growth Figures / Economics / China Economy
By: John_Mauldin
BY KEVIN BREKKE : China ended 2016 with 6.8% annualized GDP growth for Q4 that let it log 6.7% growth for the year. Among other things, Beijing’s data divas were eager to report that fixed-asset investment (FAI) had jumped 8.1% last year.
But a quick dissection of that number reveals that a surge in FAI by state-owned enterprises (SOE) saved the year.
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Friday, March 03, 2017
Time For African Economic Miracle / Economics / Africa
By: Dan_Steinbock
In the 20th century, Africa gained political independence but fell behind economic boom. In the 21st century, it is Africa’s turn – but not without stronger state and new external push.After struggle against corruption, lawlessness and terror, President Buhari’s administration has outlined an economic recovery plan targeting 7 percent GDP growth rate from 2017 to 2020. While many African economies are hoping for takeoff in the coming years, Nigeria represents the region’s greatest economic potential.
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Thursday, March 02, 2017
Have Central Banks Finally Achieved the Unthinkable, Inflation Unleashed? / Economics / Inflation
By: Graham_Summers
Globally inflation is on the rise.
On Monday Spain reported a year over year 7.5% jump in its PPI reading (a measure of inflation). Take a look at that chart.
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Wednesday, March 01, 2017
US Drives Global Economic Growth / Economics / Global Economy
By: Chris_Vermeulen
The US is back in the driver seat again as a sustained and growing economic powerhouse – the Trump Economy. Since the November 2016 elections, the US economic data and outlook have been driving investment in US equities as well as select foreign investment opportunities. The reduction in regulations and business friendly Trump administration seems to have unleashed the hoard of cash and opportunity of the past 7+ years. US and foreign business are, again, “wheeling and dealing” with the intent of generating greater profits and more opportunities.
Wednesday, March 01, 2017
The Rise and Decline of Four Little Dragons - Taiwan, South Korea, Hong Kong, and Singapore / Economics / Asian Economies
By: Dan_Steinbock
After a stunning growth performance, all four dragons are slowing and aging. In the absence of drastic policy changes, they are facing relative stagnation, says Dan Steinbock.
In The Four Little Dragons (1992), U.S. academic Ezra Vogel argued that the four little dragons—Taiwan, South Korea, Hong Kong, and Singapore—were the newly-industrialized economies, which had followed Japan's export-led growth model to prosperity. Unlike major advanced economies, which established their position in a century or two, the four dragons made their mark in just a few decades.
Tuesday, February 28, 2017
Global Inflation Surges, Central Banks Losing Control and Triggered the Wage Price Spiral? / Economics / Inflation
By: Nadeem_Walayat
Whilst in Britain, inflation focus is on the surge in prices following the BrExit vote that triggered a 20% drop in sterling which is slowly but steadily feeding its way through the supply chain and heralds a nightmare 2017 for already distressed retailers such as Tesco, Britain's biggest retailer that is literally facing a crisis which I have been covering in a series of videos the latest of which follows a BBC investigation into its 'fake' shelf prices duping customers into buying products at expired offer prices.
Friday, February 24, 2017
The Whole US Economy Hangs In The Balance / Economics / US Economy
By: John_Mauldin
I have talked with many of the actors in the tax reform process—both in Congress and in think tanks. These discussions have served as the basis for my recent writing in Thoughts From the Frontline (subscribe here for free).
I’ve seen one point of agreement—the tax system must be massively reformed. That point, sadly, is where agreement ends.
Tax reform ideas usually fail because the status quo gives everybody some kind of perceived benefit. In reality, the benefit may be worth less than people think. But it’s preferable to the uncertainty of a new system.
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Tuesday, February 21, 2017
How The Slowing Shipping Industry Could Spark A Banking Crash In Germany / Economics / Germany
By: John_Mauldin
BY ANTONIA COLIBASANU : In geopolitics, events rarely occur in isolation.
Several stories about German exports, banks, and the shipping industry recently appeared in the media. But these stories do not gain their full significance unless taken as part of a bigger picture.
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Saturday, February 18, 2017
Not Nearly Enough Economic Growth To Keep Growing / Economics / Global Economy
By: Raul_I_Meijer
It’s amusing to see how views start to converge, at the same time that it’s tiresome to see how long that takes. It’s a good thing that more and more people ‘discover’ how and why austerity, especially in Europe, is such a losing and damaging strategy. It’s just a shame that this happens only after the horses have left the barn and the cows have come home, been fed, bathed, put on lipstick and gone back out to pasture again. Along the same lines, it’s beneficial that the recognition that for a long time economic growth has not been what ‘we’ think it should be, is spreading.
Wednesday, February 15, 2017
Here’s How Germany Buys Time From China / Economics / Germany
By: John_Mauldin
BY JACOB SHAPIRO : As we’ve written before, Germany’s economy has avoided problems besetting most export-dependent countries in the last two years.
In 2015, Germany accomplished this by compensating for decreased demand from China by substantially increasing its exports to the United States and the United Kingdom. In 2016, the situation was reversed. Exports to China increased while exports to the US and UK declined significantly.
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Monday, February 13, 2017
Reinventing the Global Economy Is the Only Way Out / Economics / Global Economy
By: John_Mauldin
As I’ve written previously, central bankers received a lot of criticism over the last year or two as the global economy has stubbornly refused to recover from the Great Recession at anywhere near the rate of past post-recession growth cycles.
Economics has come under fire along with other “establishment” institutions that are perceived as uncaring and out of touch. The criticism grew more intense—and more effective in the past year as Brexit and then the Trump victory occurred.
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Thursday, February 09, 2017
Retroeconomics – Global Challenge for Economic Development / Economics / Economic Theory
By: Submissions
Vladimer Papava writes: In many and mostly poor countries, their economies have been using obsolete technologies. As a result, all of these countries do not have a real chance to be successful in any long-term economic growth. The usage of obsolete technologies by any company can create the illusion that this or that business is prosperous. At the level of international competition, however, it is obvious that these types of companies do not have any chance for success.
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