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Market Oracle FREE Newsletter

Analysis Topic: Economic Trends Analysis

The analysis published under this topic are as follows.

Economics

Friday, November 16, 2007

US Is a Nation of Subprime Consumers - Foreign Exporters To Reduce US Exposure / Economics / UK Economy

By: Peter_Schiff

When home prices skyrocketed in the early part of this decade, everyone seemed to forget that the subprime borrowers were high risk by definition. Now that losses are snowballing, lenders are belatedly rethinking the “wisdom” of making such loans in the first place. Similar conclusions will soon be reached by foreign nations that have supplied American consumers with goods that they can not afford. In reality, America is a nation of subprime consumers.

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Economics

Friday, November 16, 2007

Small Businesses Join Big Businesses and Households In Their US Economic Pessimism / Economics / US Economy

By: Paul_L_Kasriel

The Small Business Optimism Index, which is tallied by the National Federation of Independent Business, dropped 1.1 points in October to a level of 96.2. As shown in Chart 1, this October level is below levels that prevailed just before the past two recessions. Charts 2 and 3 show qualitatively similar results for large corporation CEOs and for the little people – households. It seems as though just about everyone is as or more pessimistic about the economic landscape as they were just prior to the past two recessions. Everyone, that is, except the stock jockeys today. I wonder what Kool-Aid they are drinking.

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Economics

Thursday, November 15, 2007

Impact of Immigration on Economic Growth Jobs and Housing / Economics / Immigration

By: Gerard_Jackson

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleThe charge that immigration destroys jobs is a common economic fallacy. On the surface it appears as an obvious truism that if a country has a high level of unemployment then increasing immigration can only cause more unemployment. Obvious but false. This fallacy is based on the lump-of-labour fallacy that assumes a fixed amount of work. The same fallacy lies behind the belief that technology causes unemployment.

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Economics

Thursday, November 15, 2007

US October Retail Sales Growth Slows Whilst PPI Inflation Shows Small Rise / Economics / US Economy

By: Paul_L_Kasriel

Retail sales rose 0.2% in October, following a revised 0.7% gain in the prior month. Excluding autos and gasoline , retails sales edged up 0.1% during October after a 0.2% increase in the prior month. The component of retail sales which excludes autos, gas , and building materials, often used to gauge underlying strength of consumer spending, held steady in October following a 0.2% gain in the prior month. The August reading (-0.4% now vs. 0.0 original estimate) of this measure shows a downward revision, which points to a downward revision of consumer spending in the third quarter. Each of these measures sends a convincing message of soft retail sales.

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Economics

Thursday, November 15, 2007

China Inflation Problem A Result of Policy of Support for the US Dollar / Economics / China Economy

By: Paul_L_Kasriel

China's inflation problem will continue as long as the U.S. dollar remains under downward pressure and the Chinese policy is to cushion the greenback’s decline. Chart 1 illustrates the result of China’s inflation problem – i.e., rising prices for goods/services, financial assets and real assets. Chart 2 illustrates the reason for China’s inflation problem – i.e., excessive credit creation by the People’s Bank of China (PBoC), the Chinese equivalent of the U.S. Federal Reserve.

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Economics

Thursday, November 15, 2007

Bank of England Warning Over UK Economy - Stagflation Risk During 2008 / Economics / UK Economy

By: Nadeem_Walayat

Mervyn King, the Bank of England Governor belatedly recognised that the credit crunch is likely to strongly impact the UK Economy during 2008 resulting in a sharp slowdown accompanied by rising inflation going into 2008.

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Economics

Thursday, November 15, 2007

Credit Crisis Meltdown Is a Prelude to Global Economic Depression / Economics / Recession

By: Christopher_Laird

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleMonster Western credit crisis – prelude to a depression

  • The present contraction of credit
  • Gold in this situation

Present contraction of credit
The West (US,EU, Canada) is in the midst of a gigantic and spreading credit crisis that may well to lead it into a depression, if it is not fixed soon. So far, Central bank infusions (Over $1trillion worth in a few months since July!) have been the only thing that has stopped a massive bank liquidity crisis from shutting down commerce. But the damage to credit markets thus far is so huge, and worsening rapidly, that a very bad outcome seems assured. Gregory Peters of Morgan Stanley said there is a better than 50% chance of a systemic banking crisis that will hammer credit markets at this time.

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Economics

Wednesday, November 14, 2007

Inflation Expectations Are Expected To Soar During 2008 / Economics / Inflation

By: Jordan_Roy_Byrne

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleIt has been over month since my last editorial, “2008-2009: Rising Inflation Expectations Amidst an Inflationary Storm.” Since then commodities have continued to soar while the stock market has struggled in the wake of the ongoing credit crisis. It now appears that a decoupling between commodities and stocks is starting to take place. Such a decoupling is a catalyst for rising inflation expectations.

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Economics

Wednesday, November 14, 2007

United States Living on Borrowed Time As Housing Bust Could Bankrupt Mortgage Insurers / Economics / US Economy

By: Mike_Whitney

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleOn Monday, Asian stock markets took another drubbing on fears that the credit squeeze which began in the United States would continue to worsen in the months ahead. Every index from Tokyo to Sidney fell sharply continuing the “self-reinforcing” vicious cycle of losses started last week on Wall Street.  The Nikkei 225 average fell 3.3%, India's Sensex dropped 2.9%, Taiwan tumbled 3.5%, and Hong Kong's Hang Seng slumped a whopping 4.5%. The subprime tsunami is presently headed towards downtown Manhattan, where nervous traders are already hunkered-down in the trenches---ashen and wide-eyed-- awaiting the opening bell. Local supermarkets reported an unexpected early–morning run on Valium and Tylenol. Good thinking.

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Economics

Monday, November 12, 2007

US Dollar Devaluation Signals Risk Of Accelerating Global Hyperinflation  / Economics / Inflation

By: Captain_Hook

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleSoon, the falling US Dollar ($) will reach a point of maximum pain, where trading partners will be forced to print enough currency to absorb accelerating quantities of $'s or have their currencies soar further against American fiat. Known by many as the ‘race to zero' all fiat currency systems undergo in their latter stages, and based on the observation the $ has now signaled it's in crash mode, one should expect this process to accelerate as essentially what is occurring is US debt holders are being bailed out. What's happening is the market knows they can't pay, and therefore the need to inflate debts away has now gripped macro-conditions. So, Americans are being pampered right now because they are still viewed as ‘key' in global consumption trends, but make no mistake about it, with the exception of newfound wealth in emerging markets, US trading partners are also seeing the consequences of unmanageable debt burdens, which will foster the need for competitive currency devaluations as process unfolds in coming months and years. This is what a parabolic gold price is signaling, the need for speed in currency debasement protocol on a global basis, or as is commonly referred to, ‘competitive devaluations'.

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Economics

Monday, November 12, 2007

Interest Rates, Budget Surpluses and Other Economic Fallacies / Economics / US Interest Rates

By: Gerard_Jackson

One only has to read the financial pages of any newspaper to fully experience the poverty of economic thought that pervades the media. It is important to understand that what is considered by the media as sound economics is — bye and large — merely a reflection of the economic thinking that dominates the Treasury and the Reserve Bank. Terry McCrann — Herald Sun finance writer — is an excellent example of what I mean. I want to make it clear, however, that I am not picking on McCrann. I am only trying to clear the economic waters that the likes of McCrann have inadvertently muddied.

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Economics

Monday, November 12, 2007

The Depreciating US Dollar and the US Economy / Economics / US Economy

By: Gerard_Jackson

Well, we are certainly living in interesting times, bearing in mind that this is said to be a Chinese curse. Consumer confidence is down even though consumer spending seems to be holding up month after month. The Dow Jones Industrial Average drops by 223.55, sending out panic signals to numerous investors. Yet this fall amounted to only 1.69 per cent. We then get the news that productivity leapt to an annualised rate of 4.9 per cent in the July-September quarter while unit labour costs eased.

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Economics

Sunday, November 11, 2007

Impact of the Credit Crunch on UK Borrowers Debt Mountain Going into 2008 / Economics / UK Economy

By: Nadeem_Walayat

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleThe credit crunch originally sparked by hedge funds in June going bellie up due to US subprime exposure, quickly spread to a freeze of the interbank money markets during July 07, and resulted in the first run on a UK bank for 150 years during September. The contagion has continued to spread with magnitude of the problem having grown from just $2 billions to now more than $1 trillion. With this inability to value debt packages leading to ever tighter lending requirements across the credit markets. This article evaluates the real impact of the credit crunch on the UK borrowers.

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Economics

Friday, November 09, 2007

Deteriorating Economic Conditions From Main Street to Wall Street / Economics / US Economy

By: Peter_Schiff

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleRecent reports of better than expected job growth and a 3.9% gain in 3rd quarter GDP have spawned much talk about how the resilience of the American consumer is enabling the country to weather the subprime storm.  In reality, the unfolding financial crisis on Wall Street is in fact a direct result of the deteriorating economic conditions on Main Street .

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Economics

Monday, November 05, 2007

How Long Can The US Economy Defy Economic Gravity? / Economics / US Economy

By: Gerard_Jackson

Some readers (judging by their tone, I think they are Democrats) took issue with my view that there was still steam in the US economy and that the subprime fiasco would not sink it (It's not the housing market that threatens the US economy). I also pointed out more than once that readers should not be surprised if the Fed cuts rates. Well, the jury has passed its verdict: real gross domestic product came in at an annual rate of 3.9 per cent for the third quarter. This was on top of the 3.8 per cent growth rate for the second quarter. Taken at face value one would have to say that the US economy is accelerating.

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Economics

Monday, November 05, 2007

U.S. Economy: Some Cracks Showing / Economics / US Economy

By: Donald_W_Dony

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleSpeculation continues about the U.S. economy. Is it going into a recession or not? There are numerous reports from analysts and economists on credible news outlets like Bloomberg and CNBC about the state of affairs of the American nation. All market pundits seem to provide good evidence in support of their opinions, but I have not seen or heard a commentary on one of the most reliable leading indicators of the economy; the stock market.

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Economics

Sunday, November 04, 2007

US Fed Ignoring the Real World Inflation Data - Bernanke Should Take a Hike! / Economics / Inflation

By: Money_and_Markets

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleJack Crooks writes: The slumping housing market and the ongoing credit crunch have been a major thorn-in-the-side for the U.S. economy for many months, and conditions are likely to get worse before they get better.

However, does the big picture for the rest of the economy really look as bad as analysts and economists have made it appear?

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Economics

Sunday, November 04, 2007

Only Central Banks Can Create Inflation / Economics / Inflation

By: Mario_Innecco

We think the way inflation is presently defined goes a long way to helping central banks and governments perpetuate the debasement of currencies via the over issuance thereof. Prior to the 1980's The Merriam-Webster Dictionary defined inflation as: “an abnormal increase in the volume of money and credit resulting in a substantial and continuing rise in the general price level”.

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Economics

Friday, November 02, 2007

America's Greatest Export - Inflation in Spades / Economics / Inflation

By: Greg_Silberman

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleOh the absurdity of it all!

The last round of Fed rate hikes began early 2004 and ended in the middle of 2006. One of the primary justifications for a number of mini-rate hikes was the ominous threat of an outbreak in price inflation.

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Economics

Thursday, November 01, 2007

US Manipulation of Inflation Economic Statistics to Produce Strong GDP Growth Figures / Economics / Inflation

By: Peter_Schiff

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleYesterday, as the dollar fell to new record lows and oil and gold prices surged to new highs, Wall Street remained fixated on wholly meaningless government data that managed to report the lowest inflation in the last half century. These bizarre numbers were integral in allowing the Commerce Department to report 3.9% annualized GDP growth in the third quarter, which was heralded by the bulls as evidence that a resilient U.S. economy had shrugged off the problems in the housing and mortgage markets. However, the government's ability to make “economic growth” magically appear is based purely on statistical finesse.

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