Analysis Topic: Economic Trends Analysis
The analysis published under this topic are as follows.
Sunday, September 04, 2016
The Anti-Cinderella Man (Part One) - The Greater Depression / Economics / Great Depression II
By: James_Quinn
There are several movies I will watch every time they are aired on one of my generally useless 600 cable channels. They all have the same thing in common – a compelling character portrayal which keeps you riveted and mesmerized by how the protagonist deals with adversity and circumstances beyond their control. The movies I can’t resist include: The Godfather I & II, The Green Mile, Shawshank Redemption, Apocalypse Now, and Patton. Another captivating movie, which didn’t do well at the box office, is Cinderella Man. The portrayal of Depression era heavyweight boxing champion James J. Braddock by Russell Crowe is inspirational, with a rousing and improbable victory by the champion of the common man. While watching this great movie a few weeks ago I found myself equating the themes to the current presidential campaign.
Saturday, September 03, 2016
John Maynard Keynes’ “General Theory” Eighty Years Later / Economics / Economic Theory
By: Antonius_Aquinas
To the economic and political detriment of the Western world and those economies beyond which have adopted its precepts, 2016 marks the eightieth anniversary of the publication of one of, if not, the most influential economics books ever penned, John Maynard Keynes’ The General Theory of Employment, Interest and Money. Sadly, even to this day, despite its thorough refutation by lights such as Henry Hazlitt and other eminent scholars, The General Theory, which spawned “Keynesianism” and its later variants, remains supreme in academics, financial markets, and public policy.
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Friday, September 02, 2016
Psychological Manipulation & Economic Deception are now the Order of the day / Economics / Economic Statistics
By: Sol_Palha
A man has free choice to the extent that he is rational. St. Thomas AquinasIt is possible if one takes the right actions to make money and remain relatively unscathed in such an environment. One cannot say the same for the masses because they are walking with their eyes wide shut. In other words, they do not see what’s happening; their heads are stuck in the sand. They are oblivious to what’s going around, and if you try to warn them, they are apt to strangle you. This situation is strikingly similar to “Plato’s allegory of the cave.”
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Thursday, September 01, 2016
“The Fly-in-the-Ointment” -> Stagnant Wages & Hidden Inflation / Economics / Wages
By: John_Mauldin
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FRA Co-founder Gordon T. Long discusses with Charles Hugh Smith about stagnating wages and high real inflation rates, using the IRS tax reports as a guide to real economic activity, and the likelihood of future tax increases.
WHY WAGES HAVE STAGNATED
“The statistics we rely on are becoming more and more suspicious.”
Statistics are now used for perception management rather than reflecting the real economy. Of all these statistics we’re relying on to reflect reality, some of them are really suspect. We’re trying to stick with the ones that are valid. GDP is flawed but still our bellwethers, and we’re still relying on FRED database.
Thursday, September 01, 2016
BrExit Economic Collapse Evaporates into Boom as PMI Soars / Economics / BrExit
By: Nadeem_Walayat
The latest news out for the UK economy is that the post BrExit economic collapse as illustrated by the Purchasing Managers Index that during July fell sharply to 48.3 (a reading below 50 implies economic contraction) which most academic economists that populate the mainstream press concluded heralded the start of a severe imminent economic downtrend, an recession early warning.
Tuesday, August 30, 2016
The Influx of Female Professionals is Changing Consumer Spending / Economics / Demographics
By: Rodney_Johnson
I recently dropped off my youngest at college for her freshman year. She’s finally free of the prison rules of high school, and can explore life as a young adult. I’ve given her a few pointers. OK, maybe a few thousand tips on what to do and what to avoid over the next four years.I think I’m qualified. Her two older siblings are navigating college life just fine, with no police records and their online dignity still intact. I’m sure our parental guidance had a lot to do with this… or at least a little something.
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Tuesday, August 30, 2016
7 Things to Remember When Inflation Returns / Economics / Inflation
By: John_Mauldin
The problem for much of the global economy since the Financial Crisis of 2008 has been a lack of inflation. The banking system seized up, and loans were hard to come by for a couple of years. This shock hurt economic growth and knocked inflation down to near zero. Many major economies were hit with outright deflation.
In response, global central banks—including the US Federal Reserve—began a massive series of stimulus programs. The goal was to help their national economies get back on track. But, the results have been mixed. The US economy is one of the few to show signs of life over the last year or so.
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Monday, August 29, 2016
Politics Is Getting in the Way of China’s Critical Economic Reforms / Economics / China Economy
By: John_Mauldin
BY JACOB SHAPIRO : Two important reports were recently published on the current state of the Chinese economy. The first was the IMF’s annual review. It said the outlook for China’s near-term growth had improved. But, it pointed out that corporate debt is rising. Also, capital outflows for 2016 will equal 2015’s at $1 trillion.
The second report was China’s monthly release of investment data. This showed that fixed asset investment growth in China slowed to 8.1% in July. According to Caixin, that’s the slowest year-to-date fixed asset investment growth in 16 years.
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Saturday, August 27, 2016
Unraveling the Secular Economic Stagnation Story / Economics / US Economy
By: Steve_H_Hanke
Secular stagnation is said to be present when economic growth is negligible or nonexistent over a considerable span of time. Today, secular stagnation has become a popular mantra of the chattering classes, particularly in the United States. The idea is not new, however.Alvin Hansen, an early and prominent Keynesian economist at Harvard University, popularized the notion of secular stagnation in the 1930s. In his presidential address to the American Economic Association in 1938, he asserted that the U.S. was a mature economy that was stuck in a rut. Hansen reasoned that technological innovations had come to an end; that the great American frontier (read: natural resources) was closed; and that population growth was stagnating. So, according to Hansen, investment opportunities would be scarce, and there would be nothing ahead except secular economic stagnation. The only way out was more government spending. It would be used to boost investment via public works projects. For Hansen and the Keynesians of that era, stagnation was a symptom of market failure, and the antidote was government largesse.
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Thursday, August 25, 2016
Protectionism in 21st Century Is More Dangerous Than Most People Think / Economics / Protectionism
By: John_Mauldin
A monster debate has been going on in economic circles on the reasons for Brexit/Trump/Sanders and the developed world’s rejection of the status quo.
There are many explanations, but it all goes back to my thesis that the benefits of globalization have been unevenly handed out. Those who have been on the short end of the distribution curve are pushing back.
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Wednesday, August 24, 2016
Proof Positive the Economic Recovery Is a Myth / Economics / Economic Theory
By: Graham_Summers
For years, I’ve been warning that all claims of economic “recovery” in the US are complete fiction.
We now have definitive proof in the form of tax receipts.
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Monday, August 22, 2016
Proof US Economic Recovery Has Ended / Economics / Economic Recovery
By: Michael_Pento
The primary data point that the perennial bulls on Wall Street claim as evidence for an improving economy is the monthly jobs number. The Non-farm Payroll Report claimed that 255,000 jobs were added in July on a seasonally adjusted bases. This number was well above the 12-month average of 190,000. And according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS), at total of 1.66 million additional people have been employed thus far in fiscal 2016, making this the one bright spot in the economy.
Sunday, August 21, 2016
US Government Spending - 3 Big Stories Not Being Covered – Part III / Economics / Government Spending
By: Andy_Sutton
The third and final (for now) portion of this series might be a tad anticlimactic. If so, we apologize. Most people know America is in debt beyond comprehension. A small subset of people understand that the numbers published by the government are missing a whole bunch of important items and use accounting methods that would land most business people in prison. An even smaller subset understands the idea of generational accounting.
Friday, August 19, 2016
Big Policies, Bigger Failures / Economics / Economic Theory
By: Peter_Schiff
Economics is far simpler than most in academics or government would have you believe. To make accurate predictions all you really need is an honest appreciation of the self-interest that is at the heart of free market transactions and an ability to understand how regulations that attempt to "correct" these realities don't work. This is certainly the case with the completely predictable slow-motion train wrecks that are the signature U.S. domestic policy experiments of the last eight years: Obamacare and Federal Reserve stimulus. From the start, I issued countless commentaries on why both would fail spectacularly. The jury has started to come back on Obamacare, and the results are a disaster. And while the verdict on the Fed's policies has yet to arrive in similarly stark terms, I believe that its failure is just as certain.
Friday, August 19, 2016
Deglobalization Already Underway — 4 Technologies That Will Speed It Up / Economics / Global Economy
By: John_Mauldin
BY PATRICK WATSON : If we had to describe the last 50 years of economic history in one word, globalization would be high on the list. Thousands of small, independent economies around the world fused into one nearly seamless whole.
The things we use every day—food, clothing, vehicles, furniture, electronic devices, even the materials that compose our homes—now come from far and wide. We don’t even notice. International trade over vast distances is now so normal that we forget it wasn’t always the case.
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Thursday, August 18, 2016
These 6 Charts Show Why the Average American Is Fed Up / Economics / US Economy
By: John_Mauldin
BY JOHN MAULDIN writes: The last 20 years have brought great wealth to a few while most of the population was lucky to break even.
Whether you’re a member of the elite/protected class or one of the unprotected, it’s hard to deny this reality.
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Wednesday, August 17, 2016
Welcome to the 3-D Economy / Economics / Global Economy
By: John_Mauldin
BY PATRICK WATSON : Eight years after the Fed went bananas by setting interest rates near zero, the weirdness still hasn’t stopped. In fact, the weird part is how unsurprised we are at the bizarre economic news that comes out every day.
Just one example: Almost half the western world’s outstanding sovereign debt—$12.6 trillion worth—traded at negative yields last week, according to the Financial Times. Investors are buying a guaranteed loss with every trade. Still, they can’t get enough.
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Monday, August 15, 2016
Job Seekers Sacrificed to the Inflation Gods / Economics / Inflation
By: Michael_Pento
Our Federal Reserve is composed of labor market economists who place their faith in the theory that inflation is spawned from too many people working. They believe there is a trade-off between employment and prices, where price stability and full employment cannot exist peacefully together the same time.
Given this view, the Fed’s maximum employment and stable inflation mandates are played as a zero-sum game--the lower the unemployment rate the higher the rate of inflation. Therefore, they set about to fulfill this task of low inflation as though it were a sort of Ancient Mayan sacrificial system: ceremonially counting how many job seekers need to be sacrificed on the altar of labor slack to placate the inflation gods.
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Monday, August 15, 2016
Globalization 2.0 Is Coming to an End / Economics / Global Economy
By: John_Mauldin
I’m not the only free trader who is having second thoughts. Stephen Roach, formerly chief economist at Morgan Stanley, wrote:
Recent trends in global trade are also flashing warning signs. According to the International Monetary Fund, annual growth in the volume of world trade has averaged just 3% over the 2009–2016 period—half the 6% rate from 1980 to 2008. This trend reflects not only the Great Recession, but also an unusually anemic recovery. With world trade shifting to a decidedly lower trajectory, political resistance to globalization has only intensified.
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Monday, August 15, 2016
Why Protectionism Won’t Save Unskilled Labor / Economics / Employment
By: John_Mauldin
I just read a policy paper from the German Marshall Fund of the United States. It defends the present trade model. The authors do a good job, but in the process, they describe the problem.
Take a look at this part. (I bolded a few key points.)
The global economy is no longer about making a product in one country, and shipping and selling it somewhere else. It is about complex supply chains that weave together activities all over the globe, supported by investment, technology, and skills that know no borders.
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