Analysis Topic: Economic Trends Analysis
The analysis published under this topic are as follows.
Sunday, July 17, 2011
The Great Global Debt Depression: It's All Greek To Me / Economics / Great Depression II
By: Andrew_G_Marshall
In late June of 2011, the Greek government passed another round of austerity measures, ostensibly aimed at getting Greece “back on track” to economic progress, but in reality, implementing a systematic program of ‘social genocide’ in the name of servicing an endless and illegitimate debt to foreign banks. Right on cue, protests and riots broke out in Athens against the draconian measures, and the state moved in to do what states do best: oppress the people with riot police, tear gas and bashing batons, leaving roughly 300 people injured.
Sunday, July 17, 2011
U.S. Economy Inflation R.I.P. Deflation / Economics / Inflation
By: EconMatters
Despite a big 4.4% drop off from energy prices in June following a 1.0% fall in May, the latest BLS data showed that the Consumer Price Index (CPI) for June was still up 3.6% year-over-year.
The core CPI (less food and energy), an inflation gauge watched closely by the Federal Reserve, also increased 1.6% year-over-year, and has been steadily rising and most of the increase has come within the past six months. (See Charts Below)
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Sunday, July 17, 2011
Back to Economic Basics GDP = C + I + G + Net Exports / Economics / Economic Theory
By: John_Mauldin
This week we are going to revisit some themes concerning the problems of the debt and the deficit. I am getting a number of questions, so while long-time readers may have read most of this in one letter or another, it is clearly time for a review, especially given the deficit/debt-ceiling debate. I will probably offend some cherished beliefs of most readers, but that is the nature of the times we live in. It is the time of the Endgame, where things are not as black and white as they have been in the past.
Saturday, July 16, 2011
Factory Production Decelerating Even After Excluding Autos / Economics / US Economy
By: Paul_L_Kasriel
Industrial production moved up 0.1% in June, following two consecutive monthly declines. Supply chain problems from the Japanese natural disaster led to a decline in auto production in each of the three months of the second quarter. Production at the nation's utilities rose 0.9% in June following a 2.0% drop in May.
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Saturday, July 16, 2011
U.S. CPI Inflation - Lower Energy Prices Account for Decline / Economics / Inflation
By: Paul_L_Kasriel
The Consumer Price Index (CPI) fell 0.2% in June vs. a 0.2% increase in the prior month. The 6.8% drop of the gasoline price index accounted for a large part of the decline in the headline number. The food price index moved up 0.2% in June, the smallest increase for the year. The core CPI, which excludes food and energy, rose 0.3% in June, matching the gain posted in May.
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Saturday, July 16, 2011
Social Security's Impact on the Federal Budget Deficit / Economics / Government Spending
By: Paul_L_Kasriel
For a number of years, net contributions to Social Security exceeded benefit payments. These surpluses were transferred to the Treasury's general fund in exchange for an IOU from the Treasury to be called at a time when the net contributions to Social Security became less than the benefit payments. That time arrived in 2009 when net contributions were $8.2 billion less than benefit payments.
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Saturday, July 16, 2011
Growth in Net Federal Outlays / Economics / Government Spending
By: Paul_L_Kasriel
The 12-month cumulative total of net federal outlays in June 2011 was up 3.28% from the 12-month cumulative total in June 2010. From December 1955 through June 2011, the median change in the 12-month cumulative total of net federal outlays from year-ago month has been 6.64%.
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Friday, July 15, 2011
U.S. Q2 Retail Sales Suggest Mild Gain in Consumer Spending / Economics / US Economy
By: Asha_Bangalore
Retail sales rose only 0.1% during June after a revised 0.1% drop in May. The tally of retail sales for the second quarter shows a significant deceleration in the second quarter (+4.4%) after a 10.5% annualized gain in the first quarter, which partly reflects the vast swings of gasoline prices. Auto sales advanced 0.8% in June according to today's retail sales report, which is different from the unit sales data for June (11.5 million units vs. 11.8 million units in May).
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Friday, July 15, 2011
Economic Stimulus Shock: Unemployment “Boost” Ending / Economics / Economic Stimulus
By: Dr_Jeff_Lewis
Economics has been declared the “dismal science,” one in which there are very few opportunities to test the real world outcome of varying decisions made at a high level. Today, the study of economics may be dismal for other reasons: the boost from unemployment benefits and other stimulus programs will soon run out.
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Thursday, July 14, 2011
The Greater Economic Depression Is Upon Us / Economics / Great Depression II
By: David_Galland
The phrase “Greater Depression” was coined by Doug Casey a decade or so back as a way of describing the economic crisis he foresaw as inevitable, and which is now materializing.
Because I think it is important for every organization to constantly challenge its own assumptions, I’ve long acted as something of a devil’s advocate here at Casey Research. By constantly pushing our analysts to revisit their assumptions and calculations, it is my firm intention for us to spot the fork in the road that indicates it is time to shift strategies away from investments designed to do well in the face of a currency debasement and to something else.
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Wednesday, July 13, 2011
China Economic Marvel Continues / Economics / China Economy
By: Jenson
China declared the second quarter performance. The summary data points are presented in charts. The impression continues to be that China has maintained its high growth and there are no indications of a crash landing.
Wednesday, July 13, 2011
The Disintegrating U.S. Economic Recovery / Economics / Economic Recovery
By: John_Kozy
The word 'recover' always has the connotation of "getting back." But who is going to get back what when the economy "recovers"? Few at most. So what does an economic recovery look like? No one knows. The word 'recovery' can not be applied to objects willy-nilly. A sick person goes into the hospital to recover; a broken automobile is taken to a shop to be repaired. Automobiles do not recover. Neither do economies; they can only get better or worse, and specific information is needed to determine which. Few people realize just how close to the edge of disintegration America is. The Congress meets for one purpose and one purpose alone—to get reelected. The political posturing begins the day after each election, while the nation's problems go unaddressed, and our media aid and abet the posturing. Such is America today. This recession/depression will never "recover." Neither will America.
Wednesday, July 13, 2011
This Is Not Economic Recovery, It's the Great Correction / Economics / US Economy
By: Bill_Bonner
The fight for recovery is over. The feds have waved the white flag. Maybe…
The Labor Department came out with the latest employment numbers last week. They were atrocious. Only about a fifth as many new jobs as economists expected. Which shows you three things.
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Wednesday, July 13, 2011
April's Narrower U.S. Trade Deficit Looks to Have Been a Fluke / Economics / US Economy
By: Paul_L_Kasriel
In price-adjusted terms, the U.S. trade deficit in goods widened by almost $3.9 billion in May compared with its narrowing of $5.7 billion in April. Real U.S. exports of goods decreased 1.5% or $1.5 billion in May. Real U.S. imports of goods increased 1.6% or $2.3 billion. In April, imports contracted by $4.6 billion. This occurred in part because of the interruption in imports from Japan of motor vehicle parts. Imports of Japanese-produced motor vehicle parts rebounded in May and likely did so in June, too (see Chart 2).
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Monday, July 11, 2011
June's Abysmal U.S. Jobs Report is Just the Beginning / Economics / Employment
By: Money_Morning
Kerri Shannon writes:
The June jobs report was abysmal - bud sadly it's just the beginning.
After just a few months of modest, stimulus-induced improvement the jobs market is again sliding backwards into a "new normal" characterized by even higher rates of unemployment.
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Monday, July 11, 2011
Greek Tragedy Goes Global / Economics / Global Debt Crisis
By: Stephen_Lendman
After Greece's government surrendered to banker occupation, trends analyst Gerald Celente told Russia Today that:
America's "economy continues to decline. There's no recovery in sight." Across Europe in Greece, Britain and elsewhere, people are reacting against forced austerity to assure bankers get paid.
Monday, July 11, 2011
Main Street America's Great Depression Continues / Economics / Great Depression II
By: Stephen_Lendman
Friday's jobs report threw more cold water on so-called recovery. Since 2008, Main Street America's been in Depression.
Conditions have worsened, not improved, because of force-fed austerity, not badly needed stimulus to create jobs, reemploy people, and revive real economic growth, not the illusory kind since the National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) officially declared June 2009 the end of recession.
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Monday, July 11, 2011
Staring Down China's Inflation Dragon / Economics / Inflation
By: EconMatters
China’s inflation jumped to its highest in three years with consumer price index (CPI) surging 6.4% year-over-year in June (See Chart Below). The spike has been fueled by escalating food prices despite that the central bank’s effort to tame inflation by pushing up the RRR (Reserve Requirement Ratio) for commercial banks six times this year, while raising interest rates five times since September, most recently on July 6.
Monday, July 11, 2011
Will China Economy Boom Turn into Doom? / Economics / China Economy
By: Jenson
As china chugs along non stop, it may just be that time of the year where we wait and introspect on the great juggernaut. Does the data point to any chinks in the armor? Do we see the economy crash landing with all the hikes priced in? Some of these questions will be answered as we bring some charts on the Chinese economy. Some charts have June 2011 as a data point while others only map till May 2011. As the data is released, we will update all charts to June 2011.Read full article... Read full article...
Sunday, July 10, 2011
Has the 120-year Inflation Deflation Cycle Bottomed Early? / Economics / US Economy
By: Clif_Droke
In light of the impressive equities market rally from 2009 through 2011, some are wondering if perhaps the economic long wave has bottomed early. I recently received an email asking a question that is relevant to our discussion. He writes, "Suppose the big 120-year cycle hit a few years early, which for a cycle this long would certainly be possible. Perhaps the March 2009 low was the deflationary 120-year cycle low point, and the bull market just carries on for several more years. Is this possible?"