Analysis Topic: Stock & Financial Markets
The analysis published under this topic are as follows.
Wednesday, September 03, 2025
Stock Market September Correction / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2025
By: Nadeem_Walayat
Dear Reader
it's your lucky day, you get access to my very timely market that was first made available Monday morning to patrons who support my work, so for immediate first access to ALL of my analysis and trend forecasts then do consider becoming a Patron by supporting my work for just $7 per month, lock it in now at $7 before it rises to $10 per month for new sign-up's. https://www.patreon.com/Nadeem_Walayat.
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Sunday, August 31, 2025
Stock Market Tarrified as President Dump Risks Turning Recession into a Stagflationary Depression / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2025
By: Nadeem_Walayat
Dear Reader
This article was first made available to patrons who support my work, so for immediate first access to ALL of my analysis and trend forecasts then do consider becoming a Patron by supporting my work for just $7 per month, lock it in now at $7 as it will imminently rise to $10 per month for new sign-up's. https://www.patreon.com/Nadeem_Walayat.
Most recent analysis -
- Jackson's Black Hole, Will Nvidia Earnings Spark Panic Event in Correction Window?
- Stock Market Smells like 2021, US Housing Market Analysis
Stock Market Tarrified as President Dump Risks Turning Recession into a Stagflationary Depression
President Dump remains determined to destroy the American economy. Yes I get it many don't like it when I say it like it is, well who else do you think just delivered a 20% drop in the S&P? Biden? was it Biden? What are folk going to say when 20% turns into 30%? Don't get me wrong Trump was always DESTINED to wreck the American economy and send stocks into a deep bear market, it's just that he's not letting anyone come up for air, so we are all drowning, trying to abandon ship as what he is doing WILL deliver Inflation, WILL deliver job losses, will deliver a recession where the risk is Inflation + recession + job losses = STAGFLATION! Which translates into a 30% market drop being a BEST CASE SCENERIO!
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Monday, August 11, 2025
US CPI Inflation Tuesday Potential Panic Event! / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2025
By: Nadeem_Walayat
Dear Reader
It's your lucky day, you gett access to my very timely market brief ahead of Tuesdays US CPI Inflation release at 1.30pm UK time. Analysis that was first made available to patrons who support my work, so for immediate first access to ALL of my analysis and trend forecasts then do consider becoming a Patron by supporting my work for just $7 per month, lock it in now at $7 before it rises to $10 per month for new sign-up's. https://www.patreon.com/Nadeem_Walayat.
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Saturday, August 09, 2025
Stocks Bull Market End Game Bear Start Strategy Part 2 / Stock-Markets / Stocks Bear Market
By: Nadeem_Walayat
Dear Reader
This is part 2 of 2 of my extensive analysis in preparations for the next bear market, part 1 was emailed / posted a ferw days ago - Stocks Bull Market End Game Bear Start Strategy
The whole of this article was first made available to patrons who support my work, so for immediate first access to ALL of my analysis and trend forecasts then do consider becoming a Patron by supporting my work for just $7 per month, lock it in now at $7 before it rises to $10 per month for new sign-up's. https://www.patreon.com/Nadeem_Walayat.
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Monday, August 04, 2025
Stocks Bull Market End Game Bear Start Strategy / Stock-Markets / Stocks Bear Market
By: Nadeem_Walayat
Dear Reader
This article Stocks Bull Market End Game Bear Start Strategy was first made available to patrons who support my work, so for immediate first access to ALL of my analysis and trend forecasts then do consider becoming a Patron by supporting my work for just $7 per month, lock it in now at $7 before it rises to $10 per month for new sign-up's. https://www.patreon.com/Nadeem_Walayat.
Thanks to Agent Orange the S&P is down 10% whilst Russian stocks are up 30%, so at least the Russian stocks I bought Feb / March 2022 are soaring! I get asked is the bull market over, it could be but that's not my base case so I did what I've done for the duration of this bull market which is to buy the dip in target stocks as opps materialise. We are getting a bounce off a 10% drop but what the markets are really waiting for the next leg up proper apart from Agent Orange to shut his mouth is for the Fed to indicate that the money printer is about to go brrrr again and for that we have Wednesdays Fed interest rate decision at 6pm GMT followed by Powell's forward guidance speech that will likely be dovish in the wake of the carnage inflicted by Agent Orange. Biden handed President Dump a goldilocks economy that was delivering near S&P 30% per annum, and what does Trump do? he goes and crashes it by pressing the reset button back to 1929! Alls he had to do was nothing and we'd be coasting along with probably a couple more years of easy S&P gains.
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Friday, August 01, 2025
Why This Time It's Different! AI Tech Stocks Blow Off Top Earnings Season / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2025
By: Nadeem_Walayat
Dear Reader
This time it's different, and not just for the stock market but for everything, most don't get it, think AI is just another in a long line of tools for folk to use to increase productivity, instead AI is increasingly displacing human labour. Folk looking at the strong jobs numbers and ask where's the impact of AI? What they fail to realise is that the jobs aren't paying enough to cover the bills as automation devalues human labour so workers need 2 jobs even 3 just to pay the bills when not so long ago households were fine with 1 bread winner doing 1 job..
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Monday, July 14, 2025
Trimming into the Stock Market Blow off Top / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2025
By: Nadeem_Walayat
Dear Reader
It's your lucky day, you get access to my most recent timely market brief that was first made available to patrons early Tuesday, so for immediate first access to ALL of my analysis and trend forecasts then do consider becoming a Patron by supporting my work for just $7 per month, lock it in now at $7 before it rises to $10 per month for new sign-up's. https://www.patreon.com/Nadeem_Walayat.
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Wednesday, July 02, 2025
Transition to the World’s New (Reset) Financial System / Stock-Markets / Global Financial System
By: Raymond_Matison
Fiat monetary system since 1971, and its decline
As America’s currency printing became untethered from the restraints of previously-limiting gold backing in 1971, currency and debt started its relentless expansion to accommodate the worldwide demand for our dollars as a global trade and reserve currency. Increasing confidence in this incredible privilege promoted growing domestic fiscal irresponsibility from our politicians, as budget deficits continued to escalate dangerously, and expand national debt.
It is arguable that our nation’s debt has been unsustainable already for more than a decade; now we are simply increasingly experiencing its consequences – which is long-term product price inflation reflecting loss in the value of our currency, resistance to and reduction of the U.S. dollar in trade (de-dollarization), and diminished America’s global hegemony. Confirmation in this global shift is seen from the massive purchase of gold by many of the world’s central and even some large domestic commercial banks, and development of non-western trade -increasingly without the use of our dollar.
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Tuesday, June 10, 2025
CP Lie Wednesday / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2025
By: Nadeem_Walayat
Dear Reader
It's your lucky day, you get access to my most recent timely market brief that was first made available to patrons early Tuesday, so for immediate first access to ALL of my analysis and trend forecasts then do consider becoming a Patron by supporting my work for just $7 per month, lock it in now at $7 before it rises to $10 per month for new sign-up's. https://www.patreon.com/Nadeem_Walayat.
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Wednesday, May 21, 2025
The God of Trade War vs Stock Market / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2025
By: Nadeem_Walayat
The Arms Dealer in Chief is back from visiting the son the always wanted, was met with news of a Moody's debt downgrade, states that there are no trade deals and will be sending trade war letters out with new tariff rates..... Here we go again! At least folk have had a good opp to trim to increase percent cash ahead of the run towards 6000 a break of which would target a new all time high which has remained my base case despite the Trump chaos induced market panic events that we are definitely going to see more of, anyway the rally to date has allowed me to trim my way to 26.3% cash vs a recent low of 16%..
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Wednesday, April 30, 2025
Stock Market Awaiting the Bonds Panic to trigger QE4Ever / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2025
By: Nadeem_Walayat
Dear Reader
It's your lucky day, you get access to my recent timely market brief that was first made available to patrons early Tuesday morning, so for immediate first access to ALL of my analysis and trend forecasts then do consider becoming a Patron by supporting my work for just $7 per month, lock it in now at $7 before it rises to $10 per month for new sign-up's. https://www.patreon.com/Nadeem_Walayat.
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Thursday, April 24, 2025
US Bond Market Panic Continues Towards May Expected Japanese Rate Hike Volatility Spike / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2025
By: Nadeem_Walayat
Dear Reader
It's your lucky day, you get access to my most recent timely market brief that was first made available to patrons early Tuesday morning, so for immediate first access to ALL of my analysis and trend forecasts then do consider becoming a Patron by supporting my work for just $7 per month, lock it in now at $7 before it rises to $10 per month for new sign-up's. https://www.patreon.com/Nadeem_Walayat.
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Monday, April 21, 2025
Stock Market Tarrified as President Dump Risks Turning Recession into Stagflationary Depression / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2025
By: Nadeem_Walayat
President Dump remains determined to destroy the American economy. Yes I get it many don't like it when I say it like it is, well who else do you think just delivered a 20% drop in the S&P? Biden? was it Biden? What are folk going to say when 20% turns into 30%? Don't get me wrong Trump was always DESTINED to wreck the American economy and send stocks into a deep bear market, it's just that he's not letting anyone come up for air, so we are all drowning, trying to abandon ship as what he is doing WILL deliver Inflation, WILL deliver job losses, will deliver a recession where the risk is Inflation + recession + job losses = STAGFLATION! Which translates into a 30% market drop being a BEST CASE SCENERIO!
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Monday, April 07, 2025
President Dump Delivers BEAR MARKET - Stock Market Battles Between Order and Chaos / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2025
By: Nadeem_Walayat
Dear Reader
It's your lucky day you gain access to my latest timely market brief on what to expect next during stock market chaos that was posted early Monday morning to patrons who support my work so for immediate first access to ALL of my analysis and trend forecasts then do consider becoming a Patron by supporting my work for just $7 per month, lock it in now at $7 before it rises to $10 per month for new sign-up's. https://www.patreon.com/Nadeem_Walayat.
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Thursday, March 20, 2025
Stocks Bull Market End Game Bear Start Strategy / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2025
By: Nadeem_Walayat
Thanks to Agent Orange the S&P is down 10% whilst Russian stocks are up 30%, so at least the Russian stocks I bought Feb / March 2022 are soaring! I get asked is the bull market over, it could be but that's not my base case so I did what I've done for the duration of this bull market which is to buy the dip in target stocks as opps materialise. We are getting a bounce off a 10% drop but what the markets are really waiting for the next leg up proper apart from Agent Orange to shut his mouth is for the Fed to indicate that the money printer is about to go brrrr again and for that we have Wednesdays Fed interest rate decision at 6pm GMT followed by Powell's forward guidance speech that will likely be dovish in the wake of the carnage inflicted by Agent Orange. Biden handed President Dump a goldilocks economy that was delivering near S&P 30% per annum, and what does Trump do? he goes and crashes it by pressing the reset button back to 1929! Alls he had to do was nothing and we'd be coasting along with probably a couple more years of easy S&P gains.
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Sunday, March 09, 2025
The Stock Market Bear / Crash indicator Window / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2025
By: Nadeem_Walayat
Dear Reader
It's your lucky day here are my 3 most recent market briefs sent Patrons -
...............
Stock Market Brief - The CI18 Correction Window
Sunday 9th of March 4pm UK Time
Greetings Patron
Agent Orange continues to wreck havoc with the US economy, financial markets and the US Empire as he fumbles for the light switch in the White house, does he even remember what he signed the day before? Tariffs on, Tariffs off all for being centre stage in Season 2 of the Trump Show that will likely eventually embolden Emperor Xi to make a move on Taiwan given how Agent Orange has been caving in to President Putrid in Ukraine
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Thursday, February 27, 2025
Stocks, Crypto and Housing Market Waiting for Trump to Shut His Mouth! / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2025
By: Nadeem_Walayat
Trump tariffs chaos and threats trash talk continues to rule supreme, so how can markets pump higher when the one man disinformation machine can't keep his mouth shut for more than 10 seconds without vomiting fear uncertainty and doubt? Even Musk's brat told Trump to "Shut Your Mouth" as Trump submitted to a real multi billionaire at the Oval office press conference that had Trump sat like a puppet waiting for instructions from master Musk, showing you who the boss is! The arrogance of extreme wealth! Every ones dressed for business, Musk dressed for a day out with his kid, the guy is clearly going through a MANIC phase following which will come the DEPRESSION which I am sure seeing TESLA stock nudge below $200 will worsen, and I hear the junkie does Ketamine, Musk is mentally unbalanced which brings into doubt all that folk are betting on Musk delivering in terms of billions of robot slave workers to pump Tesla stock to the Moon instead it looks like it's headed for Uranus.
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Tuesday, February 18, 2025
Stocks, Bitcoin, Gold and Silver Markets Brief / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2025
By: Nadeem_Walayat
Dear Reader
It's your lucky day you get access to my latest market brief that was first made available to patrons who support my work. So for immediate first access to ALL of my analysis and trend forecasts then do consider becoming a Patron by supporting my work for just $7 per month, lock it in now at $7 before it rises to $10 per month for new sign-ups . https://www.patreon.com/Nadeem_Walayat.
<<< Market Brief - 17th Feb 2025 - Risk is to the Upside >>>
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Tuesday, February 18, 2025
Harnessing Market Insights to Drive Financial Success / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2025
By: Sumeet_Manhas
Understanding market dynamics is essential for businesses and investors aiming to thrive in a competitive and ever-changing economic landscape. While many struggle to interpret and utilise the vast data available, effectively harnessing market insights can help identify trends, adapt strategies, and anticipate risks. This approach not only promotes growth but also ensures long-term sustainability amidst economic uncertainties.
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Tuesday, February 11, 2025
Stock Market Bubble 2025 / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2025
By: Nadeem_Walayat
So that there is no confusion stocks are very over valued right now with the S&P trading on a PE of 22,7, even the Fed gets this as indicated in the November Financial Stability Report.
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Tuesday, February 11, 2025
Global Liquidity Prepares to Fire Bull Market Booster Rockets / Stock-Markets / Global Financial System
By: Nadeem_Walayat
China set the ball rolling with their $140 billion of stimulus with much more to come during 2025, then we had the first of a series of Fed rate cuts adding fuel to the fire and next is the Incoming Trump money printing binge that is going act to fire booster rockets under all asset markets. Remember we live within the US Empires global financial system where all roads lead back to the US Dollar.
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Tuesday, February 11, 2025
Stock Market Sentiment Speaks: A Long-Term Bear Market Is Simply Impossible Today / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2025
By: Avi_Gilburt
In a number of past articles, I have tried to prepare those reading my analysis for the strong probability that we can see a long-term bear market. I have outlined the many reasons supporting my perspective, and have provided a few supporting charts in various prior public articles.
But, I will tell you that the pushback I have seen that this is even “possible” is much greater than I had expected. Many commenters have provided one reason after another as to not only why it is not likely, but, in their minds, it is simply not even possible. While I have addressed all their reasons in various prior articles, I doubt they really care. Too many investors are seemingly going through their investing careers while donning blinders.
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Tuesday, February 11, 2025
A Stock Market Chart That’s Out of This World / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2025
By: EWI
Valuations Are at the Furthest Edge of the Financial Solar System
By Robert Prechter, excerpted from the January 2025 Elliott Wave Theorist.
Figure 1 updates our history of year-end valuations for stocks of S&P companies on two bases: price to book value (Y axis) and dividend yield (X axis). I thought the year-end 2021 overvaluation would never be surpassed. But as you can see, the year-end 2024 reading is both higher and further to the right. It is the highest multiple ever recorded for S&P Industrials’ price to book value and the fifth-lowest level for the S&P Composite’s dividend yield, the four lower readings all occurring in 1998-2001.
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Tuesday, February 11, 2025
S&P 500: Dangerous Fragility Near Record High / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2025
By: Submissions
Owen Williams writes: In one of the strongest bull markets in history, the S&P 500 hit 57 record closing highs in 2024 after a stunning initial move higher off the Q4 2023 lows. Many pundits have been skeptical of the equity bull market for some time. Initially, with the inverted Treasury yield curve, economists had been forecasting a recession in 2024. Then came the artificial intelligence (AI) euphoria, with a market carried higher by only a handful of stocks dubbed “the Magnificent Seven”. Most recently, the skeptics have pointed to the historically rich equity valuations. None of these concerns have mattered. Narratives derive markets, and the AI revolution and concomitant productivity gains, perhaps coupled with the prospects for a stronger U.S. economy under Trump, have seriously taken hold of investors’ spirits. When it seems that everyone is singing from the same song sheet, we plug our ears and look objectively at the evidence that we see. Yes, equity valuations are historically very stretched and fund manager positioning is very aggressive. But these are not useful timing indicators as both have been true for most of 2024. The fragility we see is in various market indicators that may be suggesting that the bull run, at least temporarily, is ready for some corrective price action. In this article we present the internal weaknesses that our models are detecting in the U.S. equity markets. While the past never repeats itself exactly, many of the setups in our market indicators today look eerily similar to those witnessed prior to other major equity sell-offs.
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Monday, February 10, 2025
Stocks, Bitcoin and Crypto Markets Get High on Donald Trump Pump / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2025
By: Nadeem_Walayat
Dear Reader
This article Stocks, Bitcoin and Crypto Markets Get High on Donald Trump Pump was first made available to patrons who support my work. So for immediate first access to ALL of my analysis and trend forecasts then do consider becoming a Patron by supporting my work for just $7 per month, lock it in now at $7 before it rises to $10 per month for new sign-ups . https://www.patreon.com/Nadeem_Walayat.
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Monday, February 10, 2025
Bitcoin Break Out, MSTR Rocket to the Moon! AI Tech Stocks Earnings Season / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2024
By: Nadeem_Walayat
The US President has NO REAL POWER - Over the decades the Deep State Military Industrial Complex has eroded what power the office of the President had as Eisenhower warned would happen when he left office in 1961.
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Saturday, February 08, 2025
Stocks, Bitcoin and Crypto's Under President Donald Pump / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2025
By: Nadeem_Walayat
This article Stocks, Bitcoin, Crypto's Counting Down to President Donald Pump! was first made available to patrons who support my work. So for immediate first access to ALL of my analysis and trend forecasts then do consider becoming a Patron by supporting my work for just $7 per month, lock it in now at $7 before it rises to $10 per month for new sign-ups . https://www.patreon.com/Nadeem_Walayat.
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Saturday, February 08, 2025
Transition to a New Global Monetary System / Stock-Markets / Global Financial System
By: Raymond_Matison
Our current/old system
The last systemic or significant change in our Federal Reserve’s monetary policy occurred in 1971, when gold backing to our dollar was completely removed, and the United States transitioned to a centralized, completely fiat monetary system. While president Nixon is generally attributed for this action, in reality it was the previous decade’s government spending for wars and public social programs that forced this decision.
Since 1971, budget deficits have grown as national debt has exploded to what recently is now generally recognized by everyone to be at an unsustainable level. The official national debt (according to the National Debt Clock) at $36.3 trillion excludes the nation’s unfunded liabilities exceeding $222 trillion, which represents approved government programs for which no financial provisions have been made. In addition, just the present interest costs on our official debt alone exceeds $1 trillion per year, which is larger what ironically is called our defense rather than offense budget. Since governments always operate with budget deficits, it is guaranteed that our national debt and its servicing costs will continue to rise until the monetary system spirals out of control and destroys the nation’s currency. This is not something expected to occur decades in the future, but rather something that could occur at any time - only requiring an unexpected event to set it off.
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Sunday, February 02, 2025
President Black Swan Slithers into the Year of the Snake, Chaos Rules! / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2025
By: Nadeem_Walayat
Dear Reader
Did you enjoy Monday's black swan panic event that caught everyone by surprise? MSM needed a reason to explain why to it's audience and so plucked deepseek as a likely reason for the sell off in stocks and crypto's despite the R1 model having been released a week earlier!
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Monday, January 27, 2025
Trump's Squid Game America, a Year of Black Swans and Bull Market Pumps / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2025
By: Nadeem_Walayat
FLASH CRASH! Stocks and cryptos are plunging catching everyone off guard! Are enjoying the Black Swan Panic Event that you had 4 days advance warning of to prepare to capitalise upon? :)
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Thursday, January 23, 2025
Japan Interest Rate Hike - Black Swan Panic Event Incoming? / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2025
By: Nadeem_Walayat
Dear Reader
It's your lucky day, you get access to my most recent market brief as sent to Patrons Thursday Morning (23rd Jan).
Stock Market Brief - Possible Black Swan Event at 2am GMT 24th Jan 2024.
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Sunday, January 12, 2025
It's Five Nights at Freddy's Again! / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2025
By: Nadeem_Walayat
Dear Reader
It's your lucky day, you get access to my most recent market brief as sent to Patrons Sunday 12th.
Early 2025 stock market rally evaporates triggering much doom and gloom though the S&P is barely changed on the start of the year! We have got pretty much a repeat of a year ago i.e. Santa rally fail, first five days down, that got folk into a bit of panic as the likes of Hirsch had talked up his incoming Trifecta SELL Signal on a Down January which prompted me to do the following Five Nights at Freddy's article -
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Sunday, January 05, 2025
Squid Game Stock Market 2025 / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2025
By: Nadeem_Walayat
Dear Reader
The S&P ends 2024 at 5881 up an epic 23% on the year virtually a repeat of the +24% for 2023, and down 2.75% on the month which is contrary to the seasonal pattern for Decembers. In fact 2024 has been a year of contrary to seasonal price trends, i.e. April was down when it should have been Up, September was Up when it should have been Down and now December is down when it should have been Up, so Investing in the stock market during 2024 was a bit like playing Squid Game, every investor thinks they know with certainty that they will win with their perfect buys but most got killed or were left on the sidelines as the watched the market do the opposite of what they were expecting it to do, the key lesson being to be positioned for the market to either go up or down whilst maintaining exposure to the BULL MARKET as despite all of the fear and fomo the stock market managed to snake it's way to an epic gain of 23% for the year! What more could investors have asked for from 2024? The fact that despite this many are still disappointed speaks volumes of how difficult investing actually is practice vs folk thinking it will be easy money, if you find yourself disappointed despite a 23% gain then what are you going to be like during a down year?
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Friday, December 27, 2024
Stock Market Bubble Drivers, Crypto Exit Strategy During Musk Presidency / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2025
By: Nadeem_Walayat
Dear Reader
Counting down to year end and continuing pump into President Musk's inauguration that should see stocks and crypto's pump to new highs, with perhaps First Lady Donald giving us all a twirl on the dance floor.
Sunday, December 22, 2024
Stock Market Rip the Face Off the Bears Rally! / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2024
By: Nadeem_Walayat
Dear Reader
We are now into the time frame for a santa rally that runs from Monday into early January, 2024 has been another great year for AI tech stocks whilst most focus on the indices nothing burgers be it the S&P or Nasdaq (which I don't pay any attention to).
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Sunday, December 22, 2024
Stock Market Sentiment Speaks: Why Do We Rely On News / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2024
By: Avi_Gilburt
Well, that was quite the eventful week. We had a Fed announcement, and all the market geniuses were quick to attribute the cause of the 3% decline to the Fed announcement. However, this is nothing more than a foolish and very superficial perspective, which evidences their lack of true understanding of how our markets work.
As I have said often, while news can act as a catalyst for a market move, the substance of the news is really irrelevant in determining the direction of the move. In fact, we have seen many moves through market history which have not even been supported by the news. In fact, in1988 there was a study conducted by Cutler, Poterba, and Summers entitled “What Moves Stock Prices,” which supports my perspective.
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Friday, December 20, 2024
THEY DON'T RING THE BELL AT THE CRPTO MARKET TOP! / Stock-Markets / cryptocurrency
By: Nadeem_Walayat
Dear Reader
Latest Market Brief 20th Dec 2024
Crypto's are dumping, Bitcoin $94k, Solana $180, Doge $0.28, AVAX $34, COIN $260 can be very enticing to buy the dip for the next FOMO rally but I have always considered crypto's to be fairy dust, easy come easy go, so this is a warning that the TOP for crypto's could be in, so as I've been saying in the comments I would be very wary of buying the dip as the plan since the Trump pump began has been to disinvest from crypto's. Those who have followed should by now should have banked profits, I mean my exit strategy in recent articles could not have made things any clearer of what I am doing.
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Wednesday, December 18, 2024
Stock Market Expected Trend Forecast / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2024
By: Nadeem_Walayat
So far we are not getting the dip in the S&P, to the contrary as mentioned earlier the S&P traded to a new all time high which lowers the probability for an October dip getting down to anywhere the target of 5200, instead the S&P correcting down to 5500 looks doable from where we currently stand. Note the operative word "correction". Octobers tend to be one of the most volatile months of the year as does August and we saw what happened during August. a huge spike down that reversed to see the month close up, none of which will be visible in the monthly seasonal data. So whilst it might not seem like it right now with the S&P trading at 5740 as I write, October volatility is likely to see the S&P trade down by about 5% targeting a spike to below 5500 during the next few weeks which given the timing of will likely result in a DOWN OCTOBER, following which we will be set for that rip the face off the bears rally to well over 6000 during January 2025 as per trend forecast.
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Monday, December 16, 2024
Tesla $460, Bitcoin $107k, S&P 6080 - The Pump Continues! / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2024
By: Nadeem_Walayat
Dear Reader
Latest Market Brief 16th Dec 2024
Tesla $460 - I sold a big chunk today now down to 11% invested, 2.7% of portfolio, Fomo mania in msm and twit land, I"ll probably have sold 80% by 500! I remember when I bought huge at $166 those who followed were soon crying because it continued to fall to a low of $139, that's the thing, one does not want to try and buy THE low because you won't! At THE low you'll think THE low is much lower. Now folk wish they could turn back time and buy at $166 just as I said they will wish they could in the not too distant future. How to time travel will be a topic in my next article ��
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Sunday, December 15, 2024
Stock Market Risk to the Upside! S&P 7000 Forecast 2025 / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2025
By: Nadeem_Walayat
Just so that we are all reading from the same page - A Correction is a Correction is a Correction, 5500 vs 5750 is not even 5%! Primary focus is to remain exposed to the AI mega-trend stocks and seek opps to accumulate as they come along, look at what happened to Chinese AI tech stocks!
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Sunday, December 15, 2024
Stock Market 2025 Mid Decade Year / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2025
By: Nadeem_Walayat
Statistically 2025 is expected to be the stronger of 2022,2023 and 2024, which again is supportive of the thesis that 2025 will see a gain of between 20% and 30% and probably nearer to 30%, i.e. a rip the face of the bears rally where those sat on the sidelines throw caution to the wind and FOMO in propelling the S&P well beyond 7000 towards 8000
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Friday, December 13, 2024
Republican vs Democrat Presidents and the Stock Market / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2024
By: Nadeem_Walayat
Stock market performance based on whether the President is Democrat or Republican.
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Friday, December 13, 2024
Stock Market Up 8 Out of First 9 months / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2024
By: Nadeem_Walayat
A strong September during a strong year that has only seen 1 down month (April), so what does this rare pattern suggest could come next?
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Friday, December 13, 2024
What Does a Strong Sept Mean for the Stock Market? / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2024
By: Nadeem_Walayat
September is seasonally the weakest month of the year, and has been so for 3 years in a row until September 2024 resulting in the unexpected up closing month, though there are too factors that should be obvious -
1. Three years down in a row increases the probability for an UP September, a little more attention to detail should have flagged this as being probable.
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Friday, December 13, 2024
Is Trump the Most Pro-Stock Market President Ever? / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2024
By: EWI
According to CNBC on November 11, "Trump Is the Most Pro-Stock Market President in History." "The stock market could enjoy a bigger boost from President-elect Donald Trump than any previous administration," says the author of Stocks for the Long Run.
This belief is producing some spectacular risk-on biases. Here's a November 22 headline from Bloomberg that highlights investors' willingness to embrace his supposed influence on the futures markets: "Trump Set to Supercharge Options Boom by Retail Investors."
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Friday, December 13, 2024
Interest Rates, Unemployment and the SPX / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2024
By: Donald_W_Dony
December's Federal Reserve meeting next week suggests a 25bps rate reduction. Traders are consolidating bets on a 90% chance of a cut by year-end. Still, there are concerns that price expansion will be sticky to lower. Core inflation remains unchanged at 3.30%. In addition, upside tariff threats and tax cuts magnified inflation risks. Both policies result in expansionary pressures.
The bond market and the US dollar illustrate the balancing act of persistent inflationary pressure and keeping interest rates low to support the economy (Chart 1).
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Sunday, December 08, 2024
Trump Stocks and Crypto Mania 2025 Incoming as Bitcoin Breaks Above $100k / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2025
By: Nadeem_Walayat
S&P is up 27.5% YTD! This after a 24% gain for 2023, this is NOT NORMAL, we are in early stage FOMO MANIA! Further evidence for which one only need look at crypto's as BTC up 130% YTD broke above $100k trading to $104k before the exchanges FLASH CRASHED leveraged longs out of their positions and now trading back over $100k.
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Monday, December 02, 2024
Stock & Crypto Markets Going into December 2024 / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2024
By: Nadeem_Walayat
Dear Reader
It's your lucky day, you get access to my most recent market brief -
Stock & Crypto's Market Brief 1st Dec 2024 - (6pm UK Time)
Folk keep messaging me that Bitcoins down, Solana's down, Doge is down and if they are now a good buy, I reply "dude you're a year late to the party!"
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Friday, November 29, 2024
US Presidential Election Year Stock Market Seasonal Trend / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2024
By: Nadeem_Walayat
So far the election year seasonal trend has had 4 misses out of 9 months, so on it's own as is the case with most individual pieces of analysis has been a coin flip as to whether any particular month will follow the seasonal pattern or not.
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Wednesday, November 27, 2024
The AI Stocks, Housing, Inflation and Bitcoin Crypto Mega-trends / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2024
By: Nadeem_Walayat
Dear Reader
Folk keep messaging me that Bitcoins down, Solana's down, Doge is down and if they are now a good buy, I reply "dude you're a year late to the party!"
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Thursday, November 21, 2024
Stocks, Bitcoin and Crypto Markets Breaking Bad on Donald Trump Pump / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2024
By: Nadeem_Walayat
Donald Trump election win sends bitcoin, crypto and stock markets into a euphoric high on prospects for the forthcoming money printing binge. We may all be getting high on the pump right now but you all know it's not going to end well for most, those who FOMO into the highs, no matter how much we try game this, it's going to be a tough balancing act between how much we manage to take off the casino tables before the music stops and the SHTF!
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Thursday, November 21, 2024
Stock Market Sentiment Speaks: This Is My Strong Warning To You / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2024
By: Avi_Gilburt
As the market has now struck the upper end of my long-term target set many years ago, it seems many have embraced this bull market, to the extent that they see no reason for it to end. However, that is usually the time one has to pay attention for the potential for it to come an end.
The last 25 years have only reinforced the common perspective that the market “always comes back.” Whether we are speaking about the manner in which investors have been trained in a Pavlovian fashion to believe in the omnipotent power of the Fed or whether we are speaking about the manner in which the market has always come back stronger after each larger drop seen over the last 25 years, there is one thing that has become a certainty in the market: Buy and hold is the ONLY way to go.
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Thursday, November 21, 2024
Financial Crisis 2025 - This is Going to Shock People! / Stock-Markets / Financial Crash
By: EWI
"It's going to make 2008 look like child's play," says ElliottWave Trader's Avi Gilburt when discussing the precarious balance sheets of U.S. banks with Elliott Wave International's Robert Prechter.
In the just-released webinar "A Fireside Market Chat with Robert Prechter & Avi Gilburt," Gilburt shares the story of his year-and-a-half study of U.S. banks and said what he discovered "is going to shock people." You can learn the disturbing details of his findings by accessing the webinar for free.
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Monday, November 18, 2024
Dubai Deluge - AI Tech Stocks Earnings Correction Opportunities / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2024
By: Nadeem_Walayat
Dear Reader
President Donald Trump Win Pumps the markets, Bitcoin, Crypto's and stocks higher, most missed the Trump win due to MSM propaganda and echo chambers, of course after the fact it was obvious to everyone that Trump would win, yeah sure it was, the trick is to say and act on it BEFORE the event not a week AFTER it happens! One can't place bets on Trump to win AFTER it's happened!
Donald Pump winning has been my consistent view ALL YEAR, where I iterated why Kamala Harris taking over from lost all of his marbles Biden was not going to make any difference to the outcome in fact regardless of the polls that consistently gave Harris a lead the exact opposite would be true, the election result was not even going to be close, a landslide win for Trump was incoming that would pump the markets, send crypto assets and stocks including Tesla to the moon so that is where the big bets should be.
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Sunday, November 03, 2024
Stock Market Brief in Count Down to US Election Result 2024 / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2024
By: Nadeem_Walayat
Dear Reader
It's your lucky day, you get access to my latest pre-election market brief made available to patrons earlier today. For immediate first access to ALL of my analysis and trend forecasts then do consider becoming a Patron by supporting my work for just $7 per month, lock it in now at $7 before next rises to $10 per month for new sign-ups. https://www.patreon.com/Nadeem_Walayat.
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Saturday, November 02, 2024
Stock Market Trend Forecast to Jan 2025 / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2024
By: Nadeem_Walayat
Dear Reader
This extensive analysis Stock Market Trend Forecast Sept 2024 to Jan 2025 was first made available to patrons who support my work. So for immediate first access to ALL of my analysis and trend forecasts then do consider becoming a Patron by supporting my work for just $7 per month, lock it in now at $7 before next rises to $10 per month for new sign-ups. https://www.patreon.com/Nadeem_Walayat.
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Sunday, October 27, 2024
Panic in the Air As Stock Market Correction Delivers Deep Opps in AI Tech Stocks / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2024
By: Nadeem_Walayat
Dear Reader
This analysis Panic in the Air As Stock Market Correction Delivers Deep Opps in AI Tech Stocks. was first made available to patrons who support my work. So for immediate first access to ALL of my analysis and trend forecasts then do consider becoming a Patron by supporting my work for just $7 per month, lock it in now at $7 before next rises to $10 per month for new sign-ups. https://www.patreon.com/Nadeem_Walayat.
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Monday, September 30, 2024
Stock Market October Correction / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2024
By: Nadeem_Walayat
Stock Market Brief - 30th Sept 2024 - 5am UK Time
S&P FOMO's to new all time high which is against the seasonal trend for a down Sept, which is good in that it is the focus of my next analysis that allows one to determine what follows an UP Sept and it's derivatives for what it means for not just the next few months but for the whole of 2925. Preliminary analysis suggests to expect a strong Q4 and a bullish 2025 which will be the third full year of the stocks bull market, yes that's right those FOMO buying to push the S&P to a new all time high are TWO YEARS LATE TO THE PARTY! The true smart money was FOMO catching those falling knives into the October 2022 lows as I stated at the time your best buys will be your most painful to do!
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Monday, September 30, 2024
The Everything Rally will Spark multi year Bull Market / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2024
By: Richard_Mills
The Federal Reserve’s decision to cut interest rates by 50 basis points boosted US stocks and has some observers wondering whether we are gliding towards an “everything rally”.
CNN reported on Friday that investors were moving into riskier assets from bitcoin to tech stocks. The S&P 500 on Thursday marked its 42nd record-high close in 2024, while on Wednesday, the Dow chalked up its 31st record high of the year. All three major stock indexes were on pace for a positive week.
Hedge fund manager Eric Jackson of EMJ Capital told CNBC the current environment of economic growth and interest rates resembles the early days of the 1982 bull market, the first 10 months of which the stock market gained 107%.
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Sunday, September 22, 2024
US Rate Cut FOMO In Stock Market Correction Window / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2024
By: Nadeem_Walayat
Dear Reader
It's your lucky day, you get access to my latest market brief made available to patrons 22nd September.
.....
Stock Market Brief - 22nd Sept - 7pm (UK Time)
US 0.5% rate cut signals that the Fed wants to bring rates down fast from the 5.5% peak, with likely another 0.5% cut before year end and probably targeting sub 4% by the end of 2025 to maybe to around 3.5% which will act as a huge wind behind the stocks bull markets sail as multiples expand. Which in fact is contrary to that which most expect i.e. the analogs being peddled across the blogosfear point to the Fed deep cuts being associated with bear markets which is true! BUT those cuts were in response to FINANCIAL and ECONOMIC CRISIS which is not so today. Remember the market DISCOUNTS THE FUTURE IN THE PRESENT, so is discounting strong economic and earnings growth for 2025 following the 0.5% rate cut by expanding multiples in the present. Rate cuts should act to boost downtrodden stocks such as NIKE and Walt Disney that I accumulated some exposure to.
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Sunday, September 22, 2024
Stock Market Sentiment Speaks:Nothing Can Topple This Market / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2024
By: Avi_Gilburt
Every now and then, I peruse articles written on Seeking Alpha to glean a flavor for what the average investor feels about the current market environment. And, to that end, I will scan the comments section for some nuggets of anecdotal sentiment.
So, over the last week or so, I have seen quite a few comments about the S&P500 such as these:
"We could hit 10k sometime around 2028 but I wouldn't be surprised with 2027 either."
"At this point it's clear that nothing will sink stocks. Even a full blown recession event like 2008 wouldn't be able to do much damage to the stock market at this point. In fact it would be bullish because Fed would print trillions to pump stocks again."
Tuesday, September 17, 2024
Are Stocks Overheating? / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2024
By: Paul_Rejczak
Stock prices continued their uptrend on Friday, with the S&P 500 gaining 0.54% and breaking above the 5,600 level. The market is once again nearing its July 16 record high of 5,669.67. But will it continue upward? Today, the index is expected to open 0.1% lower as markets await the FOMC rate decision on Wednesday. In the short term, the market appears more and more overbought, making a correction likely at some point.
Last week, the investor sentiment worsened, as shown by AAII Investor Sentiment Survey on Wednesday, which reported that 39.8% of individual investors are bullish, while 31.0% of them are bearish, up from 24.9% last week.
Tuesday, September 17, 2024
Sentiment Speaks: Silver Is At A Major Turning Point / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2024
By: Avi_Gilburt
I want to start this article with a little background about Elliott Wave analysis, and begin with a quote from Paul Tudor Jones, one of the most successful money managers of all time:
"I attribute a lot of my success to Elliot Wave Theory. It allows one to create incredibly favorable risk reward opportunities"
Back in the 1930’s, an accountant named Ralph Nelson Elliott identified that markets represent unconscious, non-rational reactions which follow a repeating fractal pattern, which means they move in variably self-similar patterns at all degree of trends. This repeating fractal pattern represents overall societal sentiment which is governed by the natural law of the universe as represented through Fibonacci Mathematics.
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Tuesday, September 17, 2024
If The Stock Market Turn Quickly, How Bad Can Things Get? / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2024
By: Kelsey_Williams
HOW BAD CAN THINGS GET?
Pretty damn bad. Which means that it will likely be much worse than most of us can imagine. Other than Covid and its forced shutdown of economic activity by governments world-wide, the most recent learning experience for investors is the Great Recession of 2007-09. Beginning in October 2007 and ending in February 2009, the S&P 500 Index lost 53%…
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Friday, September 06, 2024
Stocks Face Uncertainty Following Sell-Off / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2024
By: Paul_Rejczak
My speculative short position in the S&P 500 futures contract from August 20, opened at the 5,626 level, is in profit.
Wednesday’s trading session saw a slight rebound of the S&P 500 index, but it closed 0.16% lower, hovering near its short-term low following Tuesday’s decline of over 2%. The index broke below its recent trading range on Tuesday, which could signal the start of a new short-term downtrend, though it currently looks like a downward correction.
This morning, futures contracts indicate the index will open 0.2% lower, reacting to economic data: a lower-than-expected ADP Non-Farm Employment Change and a slightly weaker Unemployment Claims report.
Tuesday, September 03, 2024
AI Stocks Portfolio and Bitcoin September 2024 / Stock-Markets / Investing 2024
By: Nadeem_Walayat
Dear Reader
It's your lucky day, you get access to my latest market brief made available to patrons early 3rd September.
.....
AI Stocks Portfolio Brief Going into September - 3rd Sept - 5am UK Time
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Friday, August 30, 2024
Stocks Likely to Extend Consolidation: Topping Pattern Forming? / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2024
By: Paul_Rejczak
Wednesday’s trading session brought declines for the stock market, but overall, the market remained within its short-term consolidation. The S&P 500 index lost 0.6% after rebounding from the daily low of around 5,561. The eagerly-awaited NVDA earnings didn’t change much, although today, the market is set to open 0.2% higher, retracing some of yesterday’s decline and further extending its consolidation.
Last Wednesday, I wrote “Recently, the market has continued to climb following the brief Yen crisis at the start of August, surprising many traders. The question is whether the market will continue to new highs or reverse course and retrace the recent rally. I think there is a chance the market will reverse its course and correct some of the advances, retracing a large part of the rally.”
Investor sentiment remains elevated, as shown by the yesterday’s AAII Investor Sentiment Survey, which showed that 51.2% of individual investors are bullish, while 27.0% of them are bearish – up from 23.7% last week.
Friday, August 30, 2024
Why Stock-Market Success Is Usually Only Temporary / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2024
By: EWI
Here's a sample of record sentiment readings for stocks
Recession coming or not, people are still EXTREMELY bullish.
Read this excerpt from the May 17, 2024 Elliott Wave Theorist:
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Friday, August 23, 2024
Stock Market Surefire Way to Go Broke / Stock-Markets / Investing 2024
By: Stephen_McBride
Summary:
- After a strong start to the year, markets have cooled off and the Fear & Greed Index is signaling “extreme fear.” Despite this, stocks have rallied and remain up 14% for the year.
- Investors are hardwired to be pessimistic, but optimists are generally the ones who make more money.
- Despite many crashes, the odds of making money in US stocks is 88% over any five-year period in history. That’s why optimists have a higher chance of making money over the long term.
Saturday, August 17, 2024
AI Computers Hype / Stock-Markets / AI
By: Nadeem_Walayat
Lots of hype in the media about AI computers such as which Microsoft announced. Only problem is there is no compelling reason to upgrade to an AI computer, what are you going to do with it?
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Friday, August 16, 2024
Is Stocks Rally Showing Signs of Exhaustion? / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2024
By: Paul_Rejczak
Stocks further accelerated their uptrend yesterday, with the S&P 500 index closing 1.61% and reaching new local highs above the 5,500 level. The market has retraced almost all of its declines from the August 1 local high of 5,566.16. The rebound surprised a majority of traders and the question is: Will the market go straight to new highs, or will it reverse at some point and retrace the rally? For now, there have been no confirmed negative signals; however, this morning, the S&P 500 is likely to open 0.6% lower, as indicated by futures contracts.
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Thursday, August 15, 2024
We got the Stock Market Selloff — Now what? / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2024
By: Submissions
Editor’s note: Today, RiskHedge Executive Editor Chris Reilly sits down with Stephen McBride to discuss the recent market selloff and what investors should expect leading up to the US presidential election...
***
Chris Reilly: Stephen, we got the selloff you’ve been anticipating.
Here’s your warning from June:
Markets aren’t usually this easy or consistent. And remember, in an average year, the S&P 500 suffers a decline of 14%. My guess is we’ll get a correction in that ballpark sometime before November’s election.
Thursday, August 15, 2024
BRICS, Inflation, Turmoil, and CDBC – What to DO? / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2024
By: Andy_Sutton
Our column last week prompted so many questions from new readers that we decided to start from scratch. Long-time readers will recognize much of what we’re about to say, but we ask that you take the time regardless since we’re adding in valuable context that has been provided over time. Just looking at the world today, your first thought might be: crazy! However, compared with even a few years ago, things are much clearer. So, without further ado…
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Tuesday, August 13, 2024
US Stock Market vs M2 Money Supply Vs House Prices / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2024
By: Nadeem_Walayat
This graph shows the US stock market total market cap divided by M2 money supply as a measure of relative valuations which shows stocks in October 2022 were just as cheap as they were during the depths of the 2000 pandemic crash, remember October 2022? When most feared much lower prices and thus failed to buy when stocks were cheap, as is usually the case at every market bottom!
Also whilst stocks are nowhere at the bubble territory of the dot com bubble they are definitely not cheap hence why I am currently approx 70% invested in stocks after taking off the 10% invested in cyclical crypto's that I will probably completely disinvest from over the next 12 months.
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Monday, August 12, 2024
Stock Market Mainstream Financial Media Narratives vs Reality / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2024
By: Nadeem_Walayat
So much for the "Sell in May and go Away" narrative that gets peddled out each year. Near term the S&P has basically traded sideways for the past 3 weeks nevertheless the stock market has delivered opportunities galore to both trim and accumulate in key target stocks such as buying the dips in ADSK, DIOD, and GPN and selling the rips in TSM, Qualcom and WDC, whilst seeking to capitalise on opportunities presented by the plunge in cloud computing stocks such as CRM, VEEV, Adobe, and SNOW of which SNOW is the bigger gamble of the bunch.
Current state of the stock market is that the S&P put in a new all time high of 5373, which is what tends to happen during a bull market as I often state that the risk is to the upside.
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Monday, August 12, 2024
Stock Market Rollercoaster: Analyzing the Recent Meltdown and Recovery / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2024
By: MoneyMetals
The financial landscape experienced a seismic shift last week, reminiscent of hitting rumble strips on the interstate—jerking investors awake to the underlying economic dangers.
Monday’s drastic stock market selloff, triggered by various catalysts, left investors reeling, though the panic seemed to abate by week's end. But is everything truly back to normal, or was this a premonition of more significant issues to come?
Monday, August 12, 2024
Stocks Rebounded: What’s Next? / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2024
By: Paul_Rejczak
Tuesday's trading session was mixed; stock prices bounced, but they closed well below the daily highs. The S&P 500 reached a local high of 5,312.34 but closed more than 70 points below that level, gaining 'just' 1.04%. Overnight, calming words from the Bank of Japan were released, and this morning, the S&P 500 is likely to open 1.0% higher in another attempt to retrace more of its recent sell-off.
Before the current turmoil, investor sentiment had slightly improved last week, as indicated by the last Wednesday's AAII Investor Sentiment Survey, which showed that 44.9% of individual investors are bullish, while only 25.2% of them are bearish – down from 31.7% last week.
Saturday, August 10, 2024
AI Will Turn Everyone Into Gamblers! The Greatest Wealth Transfer In History is Coming.. Part 1/2 / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2024
By: Nadeem_Walayat
Dear Reader
Have you managed to capitalise on the stock market correction as many patrons have in key target AI tech stocks?
Saturday, August 10, 2024
Plunging Stocks, Gold Miners, and Lucrative Implications / Stock-Markets / Gold & Silver Stocks 2024
By: P_Radomski_CFA
The stock markets around the world are sliding, and so does bitcoin – just as I warned.
Miners invalidated their tiny breakout, closed below the July low on Friday, and they are poised to slide even more.
That’s just the beginning.
Let’s start with a quote from my Friday’s Gold Trading Alert:
Stocks might have had their “oops” moment this week. (…)
Saturday, August 10, 2024
Stock Market Sentiment Speaks: Reasons For A CRASH / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2024
By: Avi_Gilburt
Recently, we have seen a 10% drop in the S&P500. And, there is no shortage of reasons that the financial media pundits have ascribed to that decline. While many point to the bad jobs data, we have to at least be honest in recognizing that the market began this decline well before those poor jobs numbers were announced. So, we can easily dismiss that superficial reason.
But, the most common reason for the market decline to which the pundits point was the unwinding of the yen carry trade. In fact, I counted at least 3 articles on Seeking Alpha alone with that reason in their title, with at least another 5 or 6 proffering that reason within the heart of their articles.
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Saturday, August 10, 2024
Financial Markets Attempting To Find Its Footing / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2024
By: The_Gold_Report
USD dollar index futures are higher (+0.24%) this morning, and bond yields are also higher.
Gold (+0.49%) and silver (+0.08%) are rallying a tad, while copper and oil are flat.
Stock futures are rallying, with risk barometer Bitcoin up 1.39%.
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Saturday, August 10, 2024
Big US Stocks Fundamentals / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2024
By: Zeal_LLC
The big US stocks dominating markets and investors’ portfolios just reported a truly-spectacular quarter. Their collective revenues neared record levels, driving their highest earnings ever witnessed. Yet despite all that, risks abound. The US stock markets have never been more concentrated, relying on fewer and fewer companies. Valuations remain deep into dangerous bubble territory, and market fragility signs are mounting.
The flagship US S&P 500 stock index has enjoyed a banner 2024, blasting up 18.8% year-to-date in mid-July! Traders’ fascination with mega-cap techs involved in artificial intelligence fueled fully 38 new record-high closes this year, over 1/4th of all trading days. The resulting greed and euphoria have left the SPX chronically- and extremely-overbought, mostly stretching far above its baseline 200-day moving average.
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Saturday, August 10, 2024
U.S. Trilogy: debt-based dollar and economy, stablecoin digital currency, BRICS new world. / Stock-Markets / Global Financial System
By: Raymond_Matison
Debt-based dollar and economy
Over a century ago the United States Congress approved a deceitfully promoted Federal Reserve Central Bank, which then established a new debt-based monetary system. Its concept of creating and introducing ever more currency into a country which had little debt, initially worked well to create economic stimulus at the time, and currency available to participate in WWI and WWII. That stimulus also bought forth the wild market speculation of the 1920s, the necessary precursor for tightening of credit and the Great Depression. Outlawing citizen ownership of real money (Constitutionally designated as gold and silver coins) in 1934, it required citizens to turn in their gold coins to banks, which were complicit with government to steal money from citizens as gold was then revalued by from $20.63 to $35.00 an ounce.
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Thursday, July 04, 2024
Stocks Correct into Bitcoin Happy Thanks Halving - Earnings Season Buying Opps / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2024
By: Nadeem_Walayat
Dear Reader
It's 4th July 2024 Britains Independance Day from Clown Sunak.
The polls will be opening at 7am today when the British electorate get to give their damning verdict on what will likely be one of the worst governments in British history led by a Clown, Rishi Sunak, a fool who was never fit to be an MP let alone a PM. Not for much longer as this fool will be out of No 10 within 24 hours, the writing is on the wall, Liebour is heading for a landslide election victory of well over 400 seats as the Tories die an electoral death.
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Sunday, June 30, 2024
Is a China-Taiwan Conflict Likely? Watch the Region's Stock Market Indexes / Stock-Markets / Chinese Stock Market
By: EWI
By Mark Galasiewski | Elliott Wave International
The U.S. government in early May sanctioned 300 Chinese entities for supplying machine tools and parts to Russia for its war against Ukraine, while in mid-May Russian president Vladimir Putin made a two-day visit to China. In turn I found myself thinking about how tensions between China and the United States could lead to open conflict, specifically over Taiwan.
The likelihood of conflict depends in part on the region's social mood, as reflected in Asia's stock market indexes. When social mood is negative, countries are more likely to behave aggressively.
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Wednesday, June 26, 2024
Can Stock Market Bad Breadth Be Good? / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2024
By: Gary_Tanashian
In a word, yes. But first, bad market breadth will likely be… bad
A subscriber sent me analysis calling for a “Monster [bullish] reversion trade for the ages” based on the extreme under-performance of the Equal Weight SPX (RSP) to the Headline SPX. The writer’s conclusion is that after such an extreme divergence the spring back in RSP vs. SPY/SPX is strong and the broader market is the place to be for out-performance.
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Sunday, June 16, 2024
Investors Are Forever Blowing Bubbles / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2024
By: Kelsey_Williams
“Blowing soap bubbles is child’s (investor’s?) play, but surprisingly, physicists (economists?) haven’t worked out the details of the phenomenon.” (source)
After all-time closing highs in both the Nasdaq and S&P 500 yesterday, investors drove both indexes higher again today following the release of the latest CPI number and the Fed’s decision to leave their target Fed funds rate unchanged for now. The bond market followed suit with bond prices increasing and the 10-year yield dropping to its lowest level in more than two months.
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Saturday, June 15, 2024
Stock Market Trend Forecast 2024 / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2024
By: Nadeem_Walayat
As I voiced in my preceding analysis that failure of the Feb to March correction results in the following consequences -
a. It increases the probability for the other 2 corrections to materialise i.e. it was always a toss up whether we see 2 or 3 corrections during the year, where 2023 saw 2 corrections and thus tipped it in favour to expect 3 for 2024.
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Saturday, June 15, 2024
Gold Price Consolidating at High / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2024
By: Zeal_LLC
Gold has generally drifted sideways for a couple months now, consolidating high. That lack of progress has significantly eroded sentiment, bleeding off greed and stoking bearishness. But this healthy process is exactly what gold needed to rebalance sentiment. After soaring to extremely-overbought levels in April, greed grew excessive. The high consolidation since is bleeding that off, readying gold for another surge higher.
From mid-February to mid-April, gold blasted a powerful 20.0% higher in a remarkable breakout surge. Fully 19 new nominal record closes were achieved in that short span, which really excited traders! The lion’s share of that upside wasn’t fueled by gold’s usual primary drivers, speculators buying gold futures and American stock investors buying gold-ETF shares. Chinese investors and central banks took the helm.
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Saturday, June 15, 2024
When Will the Boom/ Bust Rollercoaster End? / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2024
By: Michael_Pento
How can we know for sure the stock market is in a bubble? NVIDIA (NVDA) has been up 155% year to date; its market cap is over $3 trillion. The company has gained the equivalent of Amazon in just six months. And it is responsible for just over half of the S&P 500 gains this year. For comparison, the equal-weight S&P is up just over 4% this year. NVDA has added the equivalent of Berkshire Hathaway's (BRK) valuation in 6 weeks. BRK is the empire legendary investor Warren Buffet spent his entire lifetime building. NVDA is now worth over 10% of US GDP. That means AAPL, MSFT, and NVDA are now worth more than 1/3rd of our nation's entire economic output. All previous stock market bubbles share the following in common: a narrow stock market rally that focuses on a small group of stocks in a small sector of the economy that Wall Street is working overtime on promoting. AI fits this profile perfectly. I am not disputing that AI is going to be a productivity boom. Nevertheless, NVDA is now in a bubble. The stock is predicated on spurious and ephemeral demand for its chips, which will collapse in the economic downturn ahead.
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Saturday, June 15, 2024
Stock Market Trouble Lies Ahead. Are You Ready For It? / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2024
By: EWI
By Steven Hochberg
Conversations about whether or not the Fed will cut interest rates any time soon continue to dominate the airwaves. But we are looking elsewhere for signs about where markets and the economy are headed.
Having observed market behavior for 45 years, we've got a lot of historical precedents to lean on. The emerging picture suggests that investors not paying attention may be caught unprepared for an impending change.
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Saturday, June 08, 2024
Stock Market Investor Sentiment / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2024
By: Nadeem_Walayat
In a very similar pattern to the US Dollar, we had negative divergence in the bull bear % spread going into the end March S&P top which at 48 does not have far to go before it enters into an over sold state below 30, again suggesting that most of the decline is behind us. Remember we are in a bull market so bearish readings are going to be infrequent and short lived.
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Saturday, June 08, 2024
S&P 494 Stocks Then & Now / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2024
By: Submissions
One of the extraordinary features of today’s equity market is the extreme concentration of S&P 500 in a handful of names. Most readers know that stocks like Nvidia and Microsoft, the “AI plays”, essentially drive the performance of the S&P 500 and Nasdaq. We were interested in seeing the degree of market concentration at the last bubble peak in 2000. Historically, narrow market leadership portends future weakness in prices. So we did some quantitative work and put together some interesting charts updating our “S&P 495” chart series. We added one name, Nvidia, to create the Super 6 (Apple, Microsoft, Nvidia, Google, Amazon, and Meta), and compared these six to the remaining 494 stocks, the S&P 494.
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Saturday, June 08, 2024
As Stocks Bears Begin To Hibernate, It's Now Time To Worry About A Bear Market / Stock-Markets / Stocks Bear Market
By: Avi_Gilburt
For those who have followed my stock market analysis through the years, you would likely remember that, many years ago, I set a minimum long-term target for the SPX at 5350, with potential to rally as high as 6000SPX. In fact, many of you may also remember my expectation for a 30% correction, which I was publishing in late 2019 and early 2020, well before anyone even heard the word Covid. In fact, I even publicly suggested a short trade on EEM (because it had the best low risk, high probability set up of the index charts I was tracking at the time) back in February of 2020. And, then as the SPX dropped down to our long-term target in the 2200SPX region, I outlined my expectation for the market to bottom and begin a rally taking us north of 4000SPX. Read full article... Read full article...
Friday, June 07, 2024
S&P USD Correction / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2024
By: Nadeem_Walayat
The S&P trend tends to be inversely correlated to the USD trend as this inverted chart of the USD illustrates, where what the stock market seeks is either a dollar trending higher or a stable dollar within a range.
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Friday, June 07, 2024
US Banking Crisis 2024 That No One Is Paying Attention To / Stock-Markets / Financial Crisis 2024
By: Avi_Gilburt
Credit card and auto loans are increasing the risk on bank balance sheets.
The largest holders of these loans include JP Morgan, Citibank, and Capital One.
You have to engage in due diligence regarding the banks that house your hard-earned money to make sure you're not caught during a banking crisis.
A month ago, we published an article on consumer debt, which is becoming a huge issue for the banks from a credit quality perspective, as both credit cards and auto loans have posted sharp increases in delinquency ratios.
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Saturday, May 25, 2024
Stocks Bull Market Smoking Gun / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2024
By: Nadeem_Walayat
One of the comments I receive is that the Reverse Repo liquidity pool getting drained,, won't that mean that the stock market then hits a brick wall?
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Friday, May 24, 2024
Big Banks Are Pressuring The Fed To Losen Protection For Depositors / Stock-Markets / Banksters
By: Avi_Gilburt
Last week, the Wall Street Journal reported that the Fed and two other U.S. banking regulators are going to significantly reduce a planned increase in capital requirements for the country's large banks.
As a reminder, the regulators were planning a 16% increase in capital levels and a 20% increase in RWAs (risk-weighted assets) for the banks with total assets of more than $100B. These changes should have improved the banks’ financial resilience and prepared them to better absorb potential losses.
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Friday, May 24, 2024
Another Bank Failure: How to Tell if Your Bank is At Risk / Stock-Markets / Financial Crisis 2024
By: EWI
Another bank failure, another underperforming share price.
Philadelphia-based Republic First Bank was closed down on Friday, April 26, and the assets were sold to Fulton Bank. Republic First becomes the first bank failure of 2024. Given our outlook for the stock market and the economy, it will probably not be the last.
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Thursday, May 23, 2024
S&P 500 Cyclical Relative Performance: Stocks Nearing Fully Valued / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2024
By: Submissions
The S&P 500 index of large cap U.S. stocks has rallied +49% since the October 2022 lows, and +28% since the most recent October 2023 lows. Bulls argue that the equity rally has much more time to run. Typical bull markets last about 5 years. If we consider the January to October 2023 correction to have been a significant bear market that reset the excesses from the prior bull market, then the bull market longevity argument makes senses. Recall that the S&P 500 fell -26% from January to October 2023 following the post-Covid “bull market”, resulting in +108% equity gains. On the other hand, if we argue the bearish case, Covid distortions likely mean that the typical lengths (and magnitudes) of the bull and bear phases can’t be applied today. Bears could argue that the 2022 correction/bear market represented a mid-cycle correction or just a cooling of the excessive movement from April 2000 to December 2021. In any case, whether this is year 4 of a bull market that begin in 2020 or year 2 of a bull market that begin in 2022 would seem to have little predictive power of how much longer equities will rally, assuming again that Covid distortions will skew historical trends.
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Tuesday, May 21, 2024
Stock Market Trend Forecasts for 2024 and 2025 / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2024
By: Nadeem_Walayat
Folk ask when will the S&P index correct? This is the problem when investors stare at the S&P they MISS the corrections in key target stocks! Google fell to $130. down 15% from it's high as I pointed out at the time as I accumulated more that it would likely soon reverse higher to target $160+, and then there is TESLA that traded down to a DEEP 47% deviation from it's $299 bull market high, with a dozen more opps to accumulate into, the likes of Redfin, Flex, Apple, ALB, BHP, CCJ, DIODE, GFS, Baidu, BDEV, Corsair, Unity and so on all whilst most remained focus on the S&O.... I keep saying to forget about the indices and focus on the individual target stocks but folk keep making the same mistake of waiting for the S&P to move before they decide to act. The S&P is just a cap weighted average, it does not reflect what most target stocks are doing and thus opps to buy and sell get missed by staring at the S&P nothing burger. The S&P should be treated as a stand alone market to trade or invest in..
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Wednesday, May 08, 2024
Why You Should Pay Attention to This Time-Tested Stock Market Indicator Now / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2024
By: EWI
"How High Can Markets Go?" -- asks this magazine cover
Paul Montgomery's Magazine Cover Indicator postulates that by the time a financial asset makes it to the cover of a well-known news weekly, the existing trend has been going on for so long that it's getting close to a reversal.
A classic case in point is this Time magazine cover from June 13, 2005:
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Monday, April 29, 2024
AI Tech Stocks Earnings Season Stock Market Correction Opportunities / Stock-Markets / Earnings
By: Nadeem_Walayat
It's your lucky day, you gain access to my latest daily brief posted Saturday covering the current state of the stock market earnings season correction that was first been made available to patrons who support my work yesterday.
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Thursday, April 25, 2024
S&P Stock Market Detailed Trend Forecast Into End 2024 / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2024
By: Nadeem_Walayat
Here is the final installment of my epic analysis that concludes in detailed S&P 500 trend forecast for 2024 that was first been made available to patrons who support my work. So for immediate first access to ALL of my analysis and trend forecasts then do consider becoming a Patron by supporting my work for just $5 per month, this is your last chance to lock it in now at $5 as it will imminently rise to $7 per month for new sign-ups. https://www.patreon.com/Nadeem_Walayat.
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Thursday, April 25, 2024
US Presidential Election Year Equity Performance in the Presence of an Inverted Yield Curve / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2024
By: Submissions
We have been hearing financial media pundits tells us that the stock market will continue to rise throughout 2024. One of their arguments is that we are in a presidential election year. The link between the stock market and the election cycle is simply that the incumbent party increases fiscal spending to stimulate growth and make Americans feel better about the economy, and hence the chances of the incumbent party getting re-elected. More spending is good for firm profits, and stocks rise. The Biden administration is certainly adhering to this tradition with massive fiscal spending in 2024.
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Thursday, April 25, 2024
Stock Market "Bullish Buzz" Reaches Highest Level in 53 Years / Stock-Markets / Stock Market Sentiment
By: EWI
Learn what the AIM Index reveals
Yes, there's been a recent pickup in stock market volatility, but overall, bullish sentiment remains very much alive and well.
Indeed, here's a Feb. 18 Yahoo! Finance headline:
A Bull Market is Here.
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Friday, April 19, 2024
Friday Stock Market CRASH Following Israel Attack on Iranian Nuclear Facilities / Stock-Markets / Stock Market Crash
By: Nadeem_Walayat
Israeli attack on central Iranian cities and probably nuclear facilities is underway which is set to see stock prices drop Friday, a S&P break below 5060 targets 4960, and a break below 4960 targets 4800, that regardless of what comes to pass following Iran falling into the Fourth Reichs trap towards escalation towards ultimately the use of nuclealr weapons. Neverthless delivers an opportunity to accumulate target stocks as many stocks are set to enter their buying ranges such as Microsoft, TSMC, Qualcom, ASMNL, Broadcom, Lam Research and so on as per the spreedsheet.
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Tuesday, April 16, 2024
S&P Stock Market Trend Forecast to Dec 2024 / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2024
By: Nadeem_Walayat
Dear Reader
Here is the final installment of my epic analysis that concludes in detailed S&P 500 trend forecast for 2024 that was first been made available to patrons who support my work. So for immediate first access to ALL of my analysis and trend forecasts then do consider becoming a Patron by supporting my work for just $5 per month, this is your last chance to lock it in now at $5 as it will imminently rise to $7 per month for new sign-ups. https://www.patreon.com/Nadeem_Walayat.
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Monday, April 08, 2024
Profit from the Roaring AI 2020's Tech Stocks Economic Boom / Stock-Markets / AI
By: Nadeem_Walayat
I have been iterating since June 2020, the message one should be receiving is that I expect this bull market to run for many more years, that I expected to target a return of X6 over some 7 years on where AI tech stocks stood June 2020, whilst my best guess 3.5 years ago was that we could see a major top during 2027, as long as run away valuations moderated from time to time delivering buying opps as they did during 2022 then I don't see why this should not still remain the big picture, thus the bull market that began March 2009 could continue to fulfill my original expectations for a 18 year bull market, where even the bear market that follows it will prove temporary as the bull market once more resumes during the 2030's.
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Sunday, April 07, 2024
Stock Market Election Year Five Nights at Freddy's / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2024
By: Nadeem_Walayat
Dear Reader
Remember the start of the 2024? That opening dip in the S&P that had the likes of the holy church of the Almanach warning of the Trifecta of failures starting with the Santa Rally, then the first 5 days, with eyes next on the January baromoter, harbingers for a bad 2024 for stocks!
This was my Five Nights at Freddy's response to the headless chickens that was first made available to patrons who support my work. So for immediate first access to ALL of my analysis and trend forecasts then do consider becoming a Patron by supporting my work for just $5 per month, this is your last chance to lock it in now at $5 before it soon rises to $7 per month for new sign-ups. https://www.patreon.com/Nadeem_Walayat.
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Wednesday, April 03, 2024
Stock Market Presidential Election Cycle Seasonal Trend Analysis / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2024
By: Nadeem_Walayat
How are you enjoying AI tech stocks gravy train bull market of 2024?
This is my latest instalment of my in-depth analysis and and concluding S&P detailed trend forecast for 2024 - S&P Stock Market Analysis, Detailed Trend Forecast Jan to Dec 2024 that was first been made available to patrons who support my work.
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Tuesday, April 02, 2024
Stock Market Presidential Election Cycle Seasonal Trend / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2024
By: Nadeem_Walayat
During 2023 it seemed like everyone woke up to the importance of the US presidential election cycle.
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Tuesday, April 02, 2024
Dow Stock Market Annual Percent Change Analysis 2024 / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2024
By: Nadeem_Walayat
Dow Annual Percent Change
The 2022 Dow Annual Percent Change chart which accurately warned to expect the Dow to drop to 28k during 2022 in 2021 and that the Dow was cheap October 2022.
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Sunday, March 31, 2024
S&P Stock Market Correlating Seasonal Swings / Stock-Markets / Seasonal Trends
By: Nadeem_Walayat
Correlating Seasonal Swings
Not satisfied with just seasonal swings I've continued to evolve my near term seasonal swings analysis by comparing the year on year change of the past 5 years which resolves in the following recency bias pattern. Which is very similar to the above monthly seasonal analysis and only really differs to last years analysis in terms of the correction during May and June.
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Sunday, March 31, 2024
S&P SEASONAL ANALYSIS / Stock-Markets / Seasonal Trends
By: Nadeem_Walayat
The seasonal pattern suggests after a pause in Feb, higher into late April, then correct from early May into late June followed by a brief rally into late July /. Early August before a deep correction into Mid October, resolving in a sharp reversal to end October higher, which would set the scene for a bull run into the end of the year.
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Monday, March 25, 2024
Stock Market Volatility (VIX) / Stock-Markets / Volatility
By: Nadeem_Walayat
One of the reasons why so many have missed the bull market boat during 2023 is because they focused on the likes of the VIX whilst starting in the rear view mirror at 2022 completely flummoxed as to why the stock market is not having a spike in the vix so they can buy. What they failed to understand is that volatility is LOWER during bull markets, so no the vix was unlikely to spike to levels they were all waiting for.
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Monday, March 25, 2024
Stock Market Investor Sentiment / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2024
By: Nadeem_Walayat
TD Ameritrades retail investors sentiment chart illustrates this fact, retail investors have been SELLING since the July high, which followed fairly feeble accumulation, convinced by the cartoon network's mantra that a recession is coming.... Just look at the chart, there is NO FOMO! The S&P is on the verge of breaking to a new all time high and most investors are sat on the sidelines waiting for their fantasy S&P 3200 to materialise! This SHOWS you where you would also be if you had followed the herd during 2023! Another reminder - DO NOT PAY ANY ATTENTION TO MSM which is populated by clueless journalists and fund managers (sales people).
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Sunday, March 24, 2024
Stock Market Breadth / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2024
By: Nadeem_Walayat
Cumulative NYSE Advancing / Declining issues proved a useful early warning indicator going into the stock 2021 market top, since which closely tracked the markets decline into the bear market bottom, flashing relative strength during the bull market, the only false signal was the sell off into late October. Presently is showing divergence to the S&P i.e. suggesting a downtrend is imminent.
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Sunday, March 24, 2024
Stock Market Margin Debt Indicator / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2024
By: Nadeem_Walayat
Margin debt tends to peak and fall long before the stock market turns lower as basically speculators start to feel the pain of holding losing positions and thus cut back on their bets. Either that or are forced to close their losing trades due to failure to meet margin calls, in which respect this indicator proved very useful in flagging the prospects for a bear market long before it materialised as stock prices trended higher on petrol fumes as the fuel tank was empty.
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Sunday, March 24, 2024
It’s Easy to Scream Stocks Bubble! / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2024
By: Stephen_McBride
As I write, it’s currently the 15th anniversary of the 2009 stock market low.In March '09, US stocks were trading at levels not seen since 1996. Investors had suffered more than a lost decade.
Fast-forward to today, and the S&P 500 has surged 650% off those generational lows.
It’s easy to look at the S&P’s 650% rise and scream “bubble!”
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Sunday, March 24, 2024
Stocks: What to Make of All This Insider Selling / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2024
By: EWI
Here are details of "The Great Cash-Out"
Corporate insiders may sell the shares of their company for any number of reasons but one of them is not because they think the price is going up.
In other words, insider selling can serve as a warning.
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Sunday, March 24, 2024
Money Supply Continues To Fall, Economy Worsens – Investors Don’t Care / Stock-Markets / Financial Crisis 2024
By: Kelsey_Williams
The money supply continues to fall, but investors don’t seem to care. They are convinced that their success is connected to a potential Fed shift in interest rate policy. Nothing else seems to matter. That is partially attributable to the fact that, as the financial markets continue their upward trajectory, less and less attention is paid to the deteriorating economy. And, the deterioration is getting worse.
When worsening economic conditions – especially in the labor market – are pointed out, it is either not noticed or ignored. The wealthy and well-connected don’t care; and others don’t know enough to care. If stocks are up, things must be okay.
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Saturday, March 09, 2024
Stocks: What This "Record Extreme" Indicator May Be Signaling / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2024
By: EWI
"The total easily exceeds the prior net long extreme"
When most everyone agrees on the future trend of a market, it's almost guaranteed that the market will go in the other direction -- sooner rather than later.
The reason why is that there is no one left to convince, hence, the market in question will likely have difficulty going in the predicted direction.
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Monday, March 04, 2024
Bitcoin Crypto Bubble Mania! / Stock-Markets / cryptocurrency
By: Nadeem_Walayat
Dear Reader
It's your lucky day! you get access to my latest market brief posted to patrons this morning.
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Friday, March 01, 2024
INFLATION and the Stock Market Trend / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2024
By: Nadeem_Walayat
Dear Reader
The crypto bull market is under way! For just $5 bucks you could have accumulated Bitcoin at $27k instead of at the current price of $62k. Still not to late to captialise on the great crypto bull market of 2024! Last Chance to Get on Board the Bitcoin Crypto Gravy Train - Choo Choo!
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Friday, March 01, 2024
Stocks and Inverted Yield Curve / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2024
By: Nadeem_Walayat
Yield curve now inverted for 21 months so where's the recession? An inverted yield curve is supposed to predict an recession, however as I pointed out months ago for why I was accumulating long-bonds is that the US Treasury NEEDS LOWER long-term interest rates for it's flood of debt issuance during 2024, it does not want to pay 5% interest on this debt that continues to inflate the debt interest spiral. So the Fed will engineer LOWER long term yields whilst maintaining higher short-term rates so as to continue to suppress INFLATION! Which is what has come to pass, long rates are now 1% lower whilst the Fed fund rate remains at 5.25%.
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Thursday, February 29, 2024
S&P Stock Market Real Earnings Yield / Stock-Markets / Earnings
By: Nadeem_Walayat
Here's another indicator to pile on top of a mountain of indicators that I have been covering over the years that spiked lower below 0 into 2022 before bouncing. during 2023. Of note is the fact that every spike below zero is accompanied by a recession. So where's the recession? Answer it HAPPENED during 2022! It's just that the econofools had talked themselves out of recognising the fact that a recession had taken place.
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Thursday, February 29, 2024
U.S. financial market’s “Weimar phase” impact to your fiat and digital assets / Stock-Markets / HyperInflation
By: Raymond_Matison
U.S. equities market was strong in 2023, and after a decline in 2022, rose by 20% last year as measured by the S&P 500 Index. In addition, that index rose above 5,000 for the first time ever in the early part of the 2024 year. Surely, it must be because our economy is strong - as key government officials including our president have assured us. Or maybe not?! You can decide for yourself as key issues are evaluatedherein. We will compare our current equity market performance with a period 100 years ago with its implications for our future financial markets. We will look at the concept of self-custody for assets from gold to bank money deposits, to a securities stock and bond account and the custody of digital assets. We examine how America’s proxy war efforts are affecting our budget deficit, and the dire need for additional debt/money issueance promoting product price inflation, and asset inflation. We examine America’s profligate spending challenging a growing BRICS coalition promoting global de-dollarization, and its effects on our fiat currency’s value, alternative currencies and implications for adoption and value of Web 3 digital assets.
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Monday, February 19, 2024
Keep Calm and Carry on Buying Quantum AI Tech Stocks / Stock-Markets / Investing 2024
By: Nadeem_Walayat
My focus for much of 2023 was to what degree one would get lucky in ones target stocks during the year, as it can be a case of playing with fire to heavily trim ones holdings, especially the primary and secondary AI tech stocks, all because one thinks one can then rebuy on the next dip. In which respect 2023 proved to be a great year because we got lucky TWICE during the year! Firstly March's correction to S&P 3800, can you imagine that the S&P traded down to 3800 in March! And then again following the July high of 4600 all the way down to 4100! Which even I had started to give up on happening given support at 4200.
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Saturday, February 17, 2024
INFLATION and the Stock Market Trend / Stock-Markets / Inflation
By: Nadeem_Walayat
US CP LIE Inflation has been moderating, largely due to the base effect as surge in inflation a year ago leaves the annual inflation indices thus giving the illusion of inflation being under control hence the focus of econofools. Whilst there is also real world impact of weak European and Chinese economies, that and the effect of base rate rises feeding through should continue to put downward pressure on CPI until at least release of Feb data in March 2024, after which inflation could tick higher to back over 3% for the rest of the year.
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Wednesday, February 07, 2024
US Stock Market Addicted to Deficit Spending / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2024
By: Nadeem_Walayat
Dear Reader
Firstly my latest video explaining how I accumulate and distribute (Trim) stock positions to maximise profits
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Wednesday, February 07, 2024
Stocks Bull Market Commands It All For Now / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2024
By: Avi_Gilburt
After writing publicly for over 13 years, I have come to notice that the landscape has very much changed. There were many through the years that have attempted to take me to task for my differing perspective on the market. Many simply could not understand how I am able to ignore exogenous factors, yet still be able to accurately identify turning points in the market while staying on the correct side of the market the great majority of the time.
When I look around now, many of them are no longer around. Yet, we are still here guiding investors through the turbulence of the various market machinations we have experienced over the last 13 years.
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Wednesday, February 07, 2024
Financial Markets Narrative Nonsense / Stock-Markets / Financial Crisis 2024
By: The_Gold_Report
The term "narrative" is defined as "a story that you write or tell to someone, usually in great detail. A narrative can be a work of poetry or prose, or even song, theater, or dance. Often, a narrative is meant to include the "whole story." A summary will give a few key details, and then the narrative will delve into the details."
This perfectly describes the manner in which financial assets are deified by the MSM and fed on a silver platter to unsuspecting buyers of "all things Wall Street," especially the shares of companies that have no earnings and very few assets but a mountain of narrative content that tells a wonderful little "story" about what might happen if all goes right. Visions of net worth sugar plums dance in millions of heads around the planet every time they hear the cheerleaders on CNBC prattle on about the "strong economy" being driven forward by a "resilient consumer" who have oodles and oodles of "cash on the sidelines" with which to drive stock prices endlessly higher.
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Wednesday, February 07, 2024
Stock Market QE4EVER / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2024
By: Nadeem_Walayat
Not to forget the inflation mega-trend courtesy of rampant central bank money printing to monetize government debt coupled with the fake inflation indices where up until recently the Fed had succeeded in hoodwinking the masses that US inflation was just 1%. Instead at that time I warned it was more like 4%! Now it's more like 7%. Anyway the money printing binge now totals $8.8 trillion, up from $4 trillion at the start of 2020 and down from a a peak of $9.62 trillion in the so called Taper. We saw how the taper of 2019 went which at the time I warned would eventually resolve in the Fed Balance sheet DOUBLING. of course I was not expecting it to happen the very NEXT YEAR in 2020!
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Monday, February 05, 2024
Banking Crisis Quietly Brewing / Stock-Markets / Financial Crisis 2024
By: MoneyMetals
The Federal Reserve’s most recent policy statement came with a curious omission. Fed officials removed language from previous statements that proclaimed “the U.S. banking system is sound and resilient.”
That begs the question: Is the banking system no longer sound and resilient?
The Fed initially inserted the language in March 2023 following the collapse of Silicon Valley Bank (SVB) – whose balance sheet obviously wasn’t sound or resilient.
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Sunday, February 04, 2024
Stock Market Major Market lows by Calendar Month / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2024
By: Nadeem_Walayat
This table proved remarkably accurate on it's own for pointing towards swing lows in March and October of 2023. Whilst June had a much lower probability and thus did not factor into my forecast expectations, despite at the time everyone wanting the market to make a low contrary to the road map which forecast a continuing uptrend into July.
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Sunday, February 04, 2024
More Problems in US Regional Banking System: Where There's Fire There's Smoke / Stock-Markets / Financial Crisis 2024
By: MoneyMetals
Where there’s fire, there’s smoke.
And there is definitely smoke in the U.S. banking system.
The mainstream consensus is that the Federal Reserve successfully raised interest rates, slayed the inflation monster, and did it without breaking anything in the economy. Most people seem convinced the central bank will continue guiding the economy to a soft landing, and soon, it can go back to delivering the easy money the economy depends on.
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Sunday, February 04, 2024
New Hints of US Election Year Market Interventions & Turmoil / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2024
By: MoneyMetals
After a sluggish January for precious metals, gold and silver markets saw a rally during the first day of February trading, only to see it reverse here today on the 2nd day of the month, after a strong U.S. jobs report, to continue the lackluster performance we’ve seen in early 2024.
On Thursday, gold gained $15 to settle at $2,064 per ounce. As of this Friday recording, the monetary metal has given back all of Thursday’s gain and then some and currently checks in at $2,045 but is still up a slight 0.8% for the week.
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Wednesday, January 31, 2024
STOCK MARKET DISCOUNTING EVENTS BIG PICTURE / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2024
By: Nadeem_Walayat
The name of the game is to -
a. STAY INVESTED
b. Capitalise on discounting events.
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Wednesday, January 31, 2024
Blue Skies Ahead As Stock Market Is Expected To Continue Much Higher / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2024
By: Avi_Gilburt
The difference between the perception of the stock market during October 2023, and today, is amazingly stark. At the time, almost everyone believed we were likely heading towards recession, and that the stock market was on its way down in a big way. Fast-forward to today, and GDP is stronger than most believed, consumer spending has been strong, the Fed is considering lowering rates, employment remains strong, and there seems to be further good news across many different sectors (along with the booming expectations based upon AI), with a number of major stocks hitting new all-time highs along with the overall stock markets.
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Wednesday, January 31, 2024
What the Stock Market "Fear Index" VIX May Be Signaling / Stock-Markets / Volatility
By: EWI
"Note the succession of higher closing low relative to higher highs in..."
First, just a quick basic fact about the CBOE Volatility Index (VIX) -- also known as the stock market's "fear gauge": the lower the reading, the higher the complacency among investors. Higher readings indicate increased investor nervousness.
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Wednesday, January 31, 2024
Stock Market Trend Forecast Review / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2023
By: Nadeem_Walayat
Stock Market trend forecast mission accomplished, a rally to 4600 July 2023 to resolve in a correction to 4100 by late October 2023 followed by a rally into the end of the year.
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Wednesday, January 24, 2024
S&P Stock Market Detailed Trend Forecast 2024 - P1 / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2024
By: Nadeem_Walayat
The S&P ends 2023 at 4770, a raging bull market that has been missed by most as 2023 proved to be another year where the consensus got it badly wrong, doom and gloom, a recession was seen as being a done deal as it was for 2022, then there was the debt ceiling nothing burger, QT! What QT? We had stealth QE via the reverse repo market, and the banking crisis nothing burger, plenty of reasons why NOT to invest all the way down from the likes of Stanley Druckenmiller through to the perma fools on the CNBC cartoon network, blogosFear all convinced most to park their funds into T-bills and money market accounts.
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Sunday, January 21, 2024
S&P 500: What to Make of Fear Versus Greed / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2023
By: EWI
This sentiment index combines seven indicators into one useful trend measure
That is -- market participants generally go from feeling deeply pessimistic all the way to feeling highly optimistic -- and then back again.
These swings in investor psychology tend to produce similar circumstances at corresponding points in the Elliott wave structure of the main stock market indexes.
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Friday, January 19, 2024
Stock Market 2024 Rally to the MOON! / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2024
By: Nadeem_Walayat
Dear Reader
Understand this if you invested in the stock market to any significant degree during 2023 then you went AGAINST the herd because the herd (Institutions and retail investors) plowed most of their money into money market accounts having been talked into by the likes of the clowns on the CNBC cartoon network, MSM and the blogosfear. In fact it is even worse than that as Equity Funds experienced a net outflow of about $250 billion during 2023. so not only did investors not invest, they actually sold stocks. So what is going to happen when they see rates on their money market accounts drop? They are going to BUY STOCKS! Which will be NEAR ONE AND HALF YEARS LATE TO THE PARTY!
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Sunday, January 07, 2024
Bank Borrowing From Fed Bailout Program Has Surged / Stock-Markets / Financial Crisis 2024
By: MoneyMetals
Is a U.S. banking crisis still bubbling under the surface?If activity in the Federal Reserve’s bank bailout program is any indication, the answer to that question is yes.
Over the last two months, the balance in the Fed Bank Term Funding Program (BTFP) has surged, and the pace of borrowing appears to be increasing.
Since Nov. 19, the amount of outstanding loans in the BTFP has increased by $27.3 billion. The balance in the bailout program grew by nearly $5.4 billion in just the last week.
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Sunday, January 07, 2024
Financial Markets 2024 Outlook / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2024
By: Michael_Pento
This year promises to be one of the most interesting years economically, politically, and market-wise in history. We have two significant global conflicts/wars ongoing, just as President Xi of China is reiterating his promise to annex Taiwan, and Kim Jong Un of North Korea threatens to wipe the US off the map. Meanwhile, we have the most likely Republican candidate getting thrown off state ballots under the disgusting guise of trying to preserve democracy. The US is sadly in the process of becoming a banana republic. Wars and revolutions are not a tail risk. They are happening now and are likely to metastasize in 2024.
With this backdrop, we have the most expensive stock market in history prior to 2020. The price-to-sales ratio is 2.62, and the total market cap of equities is 176% of GDP; both figures are near record highs and dwarf the historical averages prior to the pandemic. And the equity risk premium is zero. Meaning the earnings yield of stocks is less than that yield offered by simply owning a risk-free T-bill. In other words, investors are not getting compensated at all for the extra risk of owning stocks over bonds.
Wednesday, January 03, 2024
Prepare for a Stock Market melt-up in 2024? / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2024
By: Stephen_McBride
I’m a proud papa this morning.
I attended my daughter’s school nativity play yesterday. We practiced her lines together for the past few weeks and it was great to see her hard work pay off on stage.
All the kids aced it.
As an aside, the quality of parents is far higher these days. It’s probably because couples aren’t churning out 10 kids each anymore, so they put more effort into nurturing each one.
One of the many reasons I’m optimistic about the future.
Kids rock!
Wednesday, January 03, 2024
Where Can You Find Maximum Growth for Your Investments in 2024? / Stock-Markets / Investing 2024
By: Mark_Adan
If we could all predict the way our investments will perform over the course of a year, I am pretty sure we would all be very wealthy by now. Unfortunately, we can’t, so instead, we rely on advice from blogs, fund managers, financial commentators, and analysts. And, for those of us who are a little more well versed in investing, we study the markets to give us the information to help us make what we believe to be an informed decision.
2023 though has been a year where the world has encountered such turmoil that it has been hard for many to have a firm grasp on where their money should be and where it could work at its best.
Monday, January 01, 2024
S&P Stock Market Analysis, Detailed Trend Forecast Jan to Dec 2024 / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2024
By: Nadeem_Walayat
Dear Reader
HAPPY NEW YEAR 2024!
Monday, December 25, 2023
Stock Market S&P Santa Rally to the MOON! / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2023
By: Nadeem_Walayat
Ho Ho Ho , Merry Christmas, have you all been good boys and girls during 2023? What do you want Santa to bring you for Christmas? Pop S&P 4800+ down your chimney? New all time highs in a number of AI tech stocks to celebrate Christmas morning.... Your family will wonder why this year you are so much more full of christmas spirit!
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Friday, December 22, 2023
Fed Delivers Christmas Champagne to Wall Street / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2023
By: MoneyMetals
By Thomas L. Hogan, Money Metals Exchange : It's Christmas on Wall Street as the long-awaited pivot is here, with Jerome Powell last week announcing the Fed's giving up on inflation and turning to that long-promised recession.
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Friday, December 22, 2023
Are Stocks Turning Bearish? Opportunities in Consolidation / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2023
By: Paul_Rejczak
Stocks sold off yesterday, but maintaining a bullish bias is still justified, and the market may have another opportunity to reach new highs. However, it’s crucial to pay close attention to the trading action, as there could be more uncertainty and volatility ahead.The S&P 500 index lost 1.47% on Wednesday, as it retraced its recent run-up following a quick profit-taking action in the middle of the day. The index reached new local high of 4,778.01 before going down to 4,700 level. The market was even closer to its Jan. 4 of 2022 all-time high level at 4,818.62 yesterday. Recently it was extending the uptrend following last week’s release of the FOMC Statement release on Wednesday, which marked a pivot in the Fed’s monetary policy. In early December the S&P 500 broke above the late July local high of around 4,607 after resuming a rally from the local low of 4,103.78 on October 27.
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Friday, December 22, 2023
Stocks – Is Being Bullish Still Justified? / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2023
By: Paul_Rejczak
The S&P 500 index gained 0.59% on Tuesday, further extending the uptrend following last week’s release of the FOMC Statement release on Wednesday, which marked a pivot in the Fed’s monetary policy. The market went even closer to its Jan. 4 of 2022 all-time high level at 4,818.62 yesterday. Recently the S&P 500 broke above the late July local high of around 4,607 after resuming a rally from the local low of 4,103.78 on October 27.Stocks will likely open 0.2% lower today, so the S&P 500 index may trade sideways, but there’s still potential for it to reach the mentioned record high level, which was only 1.05% above yesterday’s closing price. The S&P 500 index continues to trade along its steep upward trend line as we can see on the daily chart:
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Tuesday, November 28, 2023
Stock Market Santa Rally to S&P 4600+ / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2023
By: Nadeem_Walayat
Dear Reader
It's your lucky day! You got access to my latest stock market brief that are usually only exclusively made available to patrons.
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Tuesday, November 28, 2023
Can A Stock Market Crash Be Averted... For Now? / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2023
By: Avi_Gilburt
It has certainly been an interesting year or so since we struck the low in October of 2022. If you remember, most were looking for the market to head considerably lower at the time. But, then again, what else is new? Most expect the market to continue linearly in whatever trend is in place at any point in time.
Yet, we were strongly suggesting that most investors begin to look upward, as we maintained that the market would rally to the 4300+ region from the 3500 region lows we expected before we bottomed. In fact, I was even outlining to members that the potential was in place to rally as high as 4505SPX off the 3500SPX region, even before we bottomed. And, amazingly, the market even exceeded my expectations by 100 points.
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Tuesday, November 28, 2023
The Stock Market Trend and the Policy Behind it / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2023
By: Gary_Tanashian
An excerpt from this week’s edition of Notes From the Rabbit Hole, NFTRH 785 on the state of the US stock market bubble as developed and sustained by another bubble (in policy-making)
NFTRH 785 started off with a lot of opinions (based on facts and indicators) before settling in to a more normal report covering key markets as usual. Meanwhile, the opening segment is more an unvarnished screed than actual market analysis, which is NFTRH’s normal mode and which we do reliably each week.
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Thursday, November 23, 2023
Stock Market Ignoring Hawkish Fed / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2023
By: Monica_Kingsley
S&P 500 entered yesterday‘s session on a corrective note, but similarly to recovering from Barkin‘s hawkish message, it did the same following FOMC minutes. Not even NVDA earnings volatility could take the ES below 4,535 – clients‘ long gains whether in swing or intraday publications, are growing – and the result really comes down to when you enter and how you work with risk along the way. Crucial question to ask – are these the circumstances favoring outsized bets, or not?
It boils down to what you think about the bond market – are we see another 10y yield rising episode?
Wednesday, November 22, 2023
Stock Market Trend Trajectory into Year End 2023 / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2023
By: Nadeem_Walayat
Are you ready to rumble! Lets see of earnings season volatility can deliver some more buying opps in target stocks over the next couple of weeks.
Where the S&P is concerned the expectation for an early October bottom at just below 4200 was freakily ac hived in terms of price and time and as my market brief illustrated going into October.
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Saturday, November 18, 2023
Quad Witching Cracks Stock Market Nuts / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2023
By: Nadeem_Walayat
The S&P is complying with trend forecast expectations that saw Friday's Quad Witching day end down 1.22% at 4450, where some hours before the open I commented -
"It's QUAD Witching DAY. There is a 90% probability for a STRONG DOWN DAY! Which given where the likes of Apple are perched just above support should act as a catalyst for the the sell off into October."
Whilst apparently someone called Cem Karson was eager to convince folks that a correction was 'almost impossible!'
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Wednesday, November 08, 2023
Stock Market SP500 Trend Expectations / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2023
By: Nadeem_Walayat
The S&P is complying with trend forecast expectations that saw Friday's Quad Witching day end down 1.22% at 4450, where some hours before the open I commented -
"It's QUAD Witching DAY. There is a 90% probability for a STRONG DOWN DAY! Which given where the likes of Apple are perched just above support should act as a catalyst for the the sell off into October."
Whilst apparently someone called Cem Karson was eager to convince folks that a correction was 'almost impossible!'
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Wednesday, November 08, 2023
Stock Market SPX Bounce Underway, but Resistance Upcoming / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2023
By: Gary_Tanashian
This article discusses one diverse component of the broad global markets; the US S&P 500. The market has some poor underpinnings that we routinely keep track of in NFTRH and are beyond the scope of this public article. Also beyond the scope are macro risk indicators, including the US dollar and its relationship with the Gold/Silver ratio.
Filtering all of that out, we have anticipated a seasonal bounce or rally due to market sentiment well biased to over-bearish, oversold conditions and the seasonal pattern (on average) for SPX that has turned up, as per this graphic first presented in NFTRH 779 on October 15.
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Wednesday, November 08, 2023
Stock Market Investing - Aren't We Here To Make Money? / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2023
By: Avi_Gilburt
All I have heard over the last year is that we are about to head into a recession – an economic construct suggesting a negative market environment. And, this has kept many quite bearish of the stock market, with most looking at the rally from 3500 to 4600SPX as the market being “wrong.” Well, I have some news for you, which was well said by the legendary Jesse Livermore:
“A prudent speculator never argues with the tape. Markets are never wrong, opinions often are.”
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Sunday, November 05, 2023
Stock Market Seasonal and Presidential Cycle Analysis, Bitcoin Final Warning! / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2023
By: Nadeem_Walayat
Your analyst back from scam central (Istanbul), tourists need to factor in a getting scammed tax when visiting. Since my last article the S&P hit a low of 4333 followed by an ABC rally to a swing high of 4533, whilst a consolidation of the advance was expected, still this was more powerful than how I imagined it would play out ahead of targeting sub 4200 by Mid October and thus presents a significant deviation against my original trend forecast of some 11 months go.
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Thursday, November 02, 2023
Stock Market US Presidential Election Cycle Seasonal / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2023
By: Nadeem_Walayat
Seem's like everyone's woken upto the importance of the US presidential election cycle. However as is the case with the seasonal pattern it is not the holy grail, has a similar 75% hit rate to the all years seasonal pattern where the real value is when one puts both together. In which respect confirms September should end DOWN, October higher whilst November and December could switch places, i.e a weak November would imply a strong December and visa versa.
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Thursday, November 02, 2023
Stock Market Seasonal Trend Analysis / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2023
By: Nadeem_Walayat
The seasonal pattern suggested that after a pause in Feb the stock market should trend higher into early May for a weak May before correcting into late June follower by a strong July rally into Mid August before ending flat on the month, then followed by a weak September likely into early October that resolves in a rally into late December.
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Thursday, November 02, 2023
Stocks Are In a Rally Mode – Is This Just a Correction? / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2023
By: Paul_Rejczak
S&P 500 went closer to 4,300 level again – will the uptrend resume?The S&P 500 index gained 1.05% on Wednesday as it got back above the 4,200 level following FOMC monetary policy release. Recently the market kept selling-off on geopolitical uncertainty, strong U.S. dollar, among other factors. Last Friday’s low was at 4,103.78 and it was the lowest since May 12. Yesterday’s daily high was at 4,245.64.
In early October stocks were rallying from their local lows along 4,220 level and on October 17 the index reached a local high of 4,394. There’s still a lot of uncertainty about monetary policy, economic growth and geopolitics.
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Sunday, October 29, 2023
Stock Market Ready to Tumble Trend Forecast / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2023
By: Nadeem_Walayat
Your analyst back from scam central (Istanbul), tourists need to factor in a getting scammed tax when visiting. Since my last article the S&P hit a low of 4333 followed by an ABC rally to a swing high of 4533, whilst a consolidation of the advance was expected, still this was more powerful than how I imagined it would play out ahead of targeting sub 4200 by Mid October and thus presents a significant deviation against my original trend forecast of some 11 months go.
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Sunday, October 29, 2023
The Report that Will Change the Way You View the Markets Forever! / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2023
By: EWI
Dear Reader,
When investors and traders first discover the Elliott Wave Principle, they're often most impressed by its ability to predict where a market will head next.
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Friday, October 20, 2023
Nuclear Power - America is Finally righting its 100-year Wrong / Stock-Markets / Investing 2023
By: Stephen_McBride
Herb Kelleher was a chain-smoking attorney who often consumed 100 cigarettes a day.
He founded Southwest Airlines (LUV) in the late ‘60s. His mission: Disrupt air travel by launching America’s first low-cost airline in Texas.
But his competitors tried to stop Southwest from ever getting off the ground.
Thursday, October 19, 2023
How I BEAT The Greatest Stock Market CRASH in History - Black Monday October 19th 1987 / Stock-Markets / Stock Market Crash
By: Nadeem_Walayat
It's that time of the year again when the stock market doom merchants are at their most vocal as they focus on the historic apex of the darkest month for stocks of the year, October the 19th, the 29th anniversary of the 1987 Black Monday stock market crash that few saw coming but ever since many expect to repeat. So regardless of what the stock market has actually done thus far, by this point of the year the perma bears can always be seen literally jumping up and down like demented rabbits proclaiming that a crash is once more imminent as they point to a myriad of harbingers of the stock market apocalypse. So it is no wonder that October tends to be an unusually irrational month for where stock market expectations are concerned.
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Thursday, October 19, 2023
Unjustified Stock Market Investors Gloom and Doom / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2023
By: Stephen_McBride
I’m sensing a lot of unjustified doom and gloom from investors.
Legendary investor Jeremy Grantham recently told Bloomberg, “No one should invest in the US.”
I have great respect for the guy, but c’mon… he’s been predicting Armageddon for a decade straight.
And look at all these exciting breakthroughs going on…
Tuesday, October 17, 2023
Stock Market Earnings Season Trend Big Picture / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2023
By: Nadeem_Walayat
Since the stock market topped out at 4610 the trend has been down in line with my road map of over 10 months ago!
Stock Market Analysis and Trend Forecast Oct 2022 to Dec 2023
S&P targets a trend to 4600 by Mid Summer 2023 before correcting to below 4100 by late October.
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Tuesday, October 17, 2023
Michael Burry Nothing Burger Stock Market CRASH Warnings / Stock-Markets / Stock Market Crash
By: Nadeem_Walayat
Apparently Michel 'Nothing Berger' Burry has put BIG SHORT position on the stock market to the tune of $1.6 billion, as reports the fear mongering MSM.
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Tuesday, October 10, 2023
The Stock Market Got It Wrong / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2023
By: Avi_Gilburt
As we look back upon another interesting week in the market, there are a few standout matters I would like to point out.
To begin with, I saw the following quote from an interview with well-known economist Austan Goolsbee:
“The timing of the selloff has been something of a “puzzle” given there was no major change in the Fed’s latest projections.”
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Tuesday, October 10, 2023
How Fast will AI Gut Hollywood? / Stock-Markets / AI
By: Stephen_McBride
It’s only a matter of time before someone builds “HollywoodGPT.”
The S&P 500 is slightly up as I write this morning.
Fresh highs in Treasury yields have put pressure on stocks. But I’m not worried about rising rates. As I recently explained, stocks typically go up during rate-hiking cycles!
Here’s what I’m thinking…
Monday, September 25, 2023
Stock Market correction full steam ahead / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2023
By: Nadeem_Walayat
Dear Reader
It's your lucky day as you get access to my latest stock market brief that was sent out to patrons Monday 25th September at 3am UK time.
Stock Market correction full steam ahead as the S&P ticks below the August low of 4340, closing Friday at 4320 thus continuing to target sub 4200 by Mid October with my pin point high probability target of 4150 now some 170 points away vs the S&P 2023 high of 4610 290 point above, thus about 60% of the correction is complete which has translated into huge price drops in target stocks from their 2023 highs such as AMD down 28%, ASML -24%, Qualcom & TSMC -23% and so on and even greater price drops in the higher risk stocks such as Roblox -46%, with even greater blood baths in the housing stocks.
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Friday, September 22, 2023
5 signs & charts for Stock Market Bulls / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2023
By: EWI
Dear Reader,
While the mainstream is hyper-focused on the Fed, Elliott wavers know:
It's not the Fed that's in the driver's seat.
Investor psychology is what's in charge. Just as it's always been.
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Thursday, September 21, 2023
QE4EVER / Stock-Markets / Quantitative Easing
By: Nadeem_Walayat
For over a year now all you have heard on MSM has been how tapering is bearish for asset prices, what;s the narrative that the perma fools have clung onto for new bear market lows being just around the corner right to the recent wholesale capitulation where bears turned into blow off top clowns!
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Tuesday, September 12, 2023
Stock Market Trend Pattern and Bond Market Opportunity / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2023
By: Nadeem_Walayat
Inflation Bond Fire of the Vanities Breeds Opportunity
Fitch downgrades US Debt to AA+ prompts MSM clown narrative for triggering a rise in yields and falling stocks, there is ALWAYS a reason for why market moves, usually the same reason is used for either outcome up or down! The US debt downgrade that is the focus of MSM is a nothing burger as both rising yields and falling stocks were expected long before Fitch pressed the downgrade button as the stock market had transitioned form the topping phase off of the 4600 high set a few days ago (27th July) into a downtrend proper during August that is set to run into a window of late September to Mid October 2023 targeting a decline of at least 10%, so into and S&P range of 4180 to 4100 with many if not most target AI tech stocks set to see a decline typically by 20% off their highs, some more than others, and in fact many were already well into their downtrends coming into August such as AMD which topped at $132.5, which is why I often refer to the S&P as a red herring and caution against basing ones decisions off of the S&P, for instance there was no point waiting for S&P 4600 to trim AMD which FOMO 'd to $132.5 well over a month ago!
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Tuesday, September 12, 2023
Stocks Bear Market Leader? Here's a Prime Candidate / Stock-Markets / Stocks Bear Market
By: EWI
This stock market sector has failed to recover since the Dow's Q1 correction
As you may know, in every bull or bear market, some stocks or sector lead while others follow. So, the "leadership" in the stock market works both ways -- in uptrends and down.
The rally in stocks since last November has been led by a relatively few big cap tech names, like Nvidia, Microsoft, Apple, Alphabet and Meta.
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Wednesday, September 06, 2023
Stock Market's Character Has Changed -- Here's How / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2023
By: EWI
We're watching the VIX or "fear index" to see what's next
Stock market investors naturally want to know the closing numbers for the main stock indexes at the end of each trading day.
Yet, it's also good to dig deeper.
Let me show you some examples of how the U.S. Short Term Update, a thrice weekly Elliott Wave International publication which covers near-term trends of key U.S. financial markets, does just that.
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Monday, September 04, 2023
10 Ways To Invest For Growth In 2023 / Stock-Markets / Investing 2023
By: Mark_Adan
Investing for growth in 2023 presents a dynamic landscape that blends traditional investment vehicles with exciting emerging trends. One prominent avenue gaining attention is investment trusts for growth. These trusts offer a unique approach to achieving substantial returns over time. In this comprehensive guide, we'll delve into each of the 10 effective ways to invest for growth this year, exploring the nuances and benefits of each strategy.
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Saturday, August 19, 2023
Stocks Bull Market Phase One End Game Sector Rotation / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2023
By: Nadeem_Walayat
The stock market ended the week at S&P 4410 off a new bull market high of 4448 against my expectations for a fuzzy week to deliver a correction this week enroute to the 4500+ final destination by late July to complete the first leg of this bull market and to herald a significant correction into October as illustrated by my original road maps -
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Monday, August 14, 2023
Stock Market FOMO Maniacs Rug Pull Imminent? US House Prices Trend Current State / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2023
By: Nadeem_Walayat
Dear Reader
We have CP LIE Tuesday and then the Fed rate meeting Wednesday in advance of which retail investors and many fund managers woke up June 1st to realise that there is a bull market underway and literally PANIC bought like a herd galloping towards the edge of the AI cliff.
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Wednesday, July 26, 2023
Can The Stock Market Now Head To New All-Time Highs? / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2023
By: Avi_Gilburt
Last weekend, I questioned whether a crash can still set up for much later this year? And, the answer is, "of course." This week, I question the opposite - that is, can we still get to the all-time high? And, the answer is also "of course."
Now, I have probably confused most of you reading the opening paragraph. But, I will explain my point below, and I do not need to utilize Talmudic logic to provide the explanation.
But, before I provide my explanation, I want to again address a few fallacies that I read this past week.
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Monday, July 24, 2023
Is The Stock Market Disconnected From Reality, Or Are You? / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2023
By: Avi_Gilburt
Ordinarily, I write one public article every week or so. However, after reading a number of other articles this week, and more importantly, reading the comments section, it has pushed me to consider writing an additional missive this week. And, within this article, I am going to address two topics which seem to have people looking the wrong way all too often.
“The Stock Market Is Disconnected From Reality”
One article after another and one comment after another presents us with the common perception that the stock market is not representing “reality.” And, the problem stems from the fact that all of these people view various economic factors as representing “reality,” which they then attempt to impute to the stock market price movement. And, when their factors do not match up with price action, their conclusion is that the stock market is not appropriately representative of “reality.”
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Saturday, July 22, 2023
Stock Market S&P500 2023 Road Map Current State / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2023
By: Nadeem_Walayat
Continues to pull stocks relentlessly higher towards a target of 4,500 by late July. so any correction is likely to be minor i.e. something like a couple of hundred S&P points, 4100 at the lowest, where right now instead of FOMO-ing I am eyeing the run to sub 4000 during that deep pull back into October, so far the market has done nothing to negate this long standing expectation.
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Friday, July 21, 2023
CPI LIE, Fed Funds and Earnings and Recessions / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2023
By: Nadeem_Walayat
CP LIE Tuesday
The smoke and mirrors annual inflation indices which mask the true magnitude of inflation pain that will run for the whole of this decade will Tuesday deliver a mix bag, a sharply lower headline rate falling towards 4%, whilst a stubbornly high core rate that will remain above 5% which is what the Fed is focused upon and thus likely to send yields higher. So the CPI should be a net bearish for stocks. Remember the Fed target is 2% not 5!
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Friday, July 21, 2023
AI Tech Stocks Red Lights and Sell Triggers / Stock-Markets / AI
By: Nadeem_Walayat
FOMO IS EXTREME, and up until last week's AAII survey the only thing that was lacking was a bullish investor sentiment gauge to match the stock prices going nuts to the upside! Well we got that with a shockingly extreme jump in investor sentient reading that went from 29% bull to 44.5% bull in 1 week!. Normally I don't pay much attention to this, but that is a BIG JUMP! We have not seen readings as high as this since late 2001, the pumps are definitely being primed for a sell off.
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Sunday, July 09, 2023
The AAII Stock Market Investor Sentiment Switch Got Flipped! / Stock-Markets / Stock Market Sentiment
By: Nadeem_Walayat
FOMO IS EXTREME, and up until last week's AAII survey the only thing that was lacking was a bullish investor sentiment gauge to match the stock prices going nuts to the upside! Well we got that with a shockingly extreme jump in investor sentient reading that went from 29% bull to 44.5% bull in 1 week!. Normally I don't pay much attention to this, but that is a BIG JUMP! We have not seen readings as high as this since late 2001, the pumps are definitely being primed for a sell off.
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Tuesday, July 04, 2023
Current State of Stock Market FOMO / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2023
By: Nadeem_Walayat
We have CP LIE Tuesday and then the Fed rate meeting Wednesday in advance of which retail investors and many fund managers woke up June 1st to realise that there is a bull market underway and literally PANIC bought like a herd galloping towards the edge of the AI cliff.
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Tuesday, July 04, 2023
Stock Market As Bullish As It Gets / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2023
By: Monica_Kingsley
S&P 500 didn‘t look back following the tame core PCE report, clearly betting on no recession and Fed to declare victory against inflation. For all the positive broadening of stock market breadth in cyclicals and tech alike, other asset classes incl. bonds didn‘t get as carried away, meaning that stocks are likely to do a shallow consolidation of steep Friday‘s gains just next (today and tomorrow premarket).
As I have written on Friday – on top of dip buying being the name of the game following Thursday‘s reaction:
(…) As I don‘t expect a hot inflation figure … this should work to ultimately let stocks overcome any initial gyration with ES move to the upside, helping real assets and weakening USD,
Thursday, June 29, 2023
Stock Market Trend Forecast 2023 / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2023
By: Nadeem_Walayat
Will resolution of the Debt ceiling nothing burger send indices such as the S&P to the moon? Despite the fact that I have stated countless times that they are a red herring as the red hot chili pepper AI stocks rally illustrates S&P has been flat whilst AI tech stocks have gone to the moon. Nevertheless most remain obsessed by what the S&P will do, just as long as I can continue to ignore the Nasdaq! Getting ones knickers in a twist over the Nasdaq is what would sow maximum confusion when one just needs to stick with the script of gaining and maintaining exposure to the AI tech stocks as long as they remain largely grounded in reality and not go nuts as Nvidia has just done, more on Nvidia later.
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Thursday, June 29, 2023
Stocks and Junk Bonds: "This Divergence Appears Meaningful" / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2023
By: EWI
The trends of the junk bond and stock markets tend to be correlated.
The reason why is that junk bonds and stocks are closely affiliated in the pecking order of creditors in case of default. The rank of junk bonds is only slightly higher than equities because debt involves a contract.
Given these two markets are usually correlated, it's worth paying attention when a divergence takes place. Indeed, a divergence is in the works now. In other words, while stocks have been holding up, the price of junk bonds have been trending lower for much of the year.
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Thursday, June 22, 2023
Why Most investors Underperform the Stocks Indices / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2023
By: Nadeem_Walayat
Dear ReaderThe stock market ended the week at S&P 4410 off a new bull market high of 4448 against my expectations for a fuzzy week to deliver a correction this week enroute to the 4500+ final destination by late July to complete the first leg of this bull market and to herald a significant correction into October as illustrated by my original road maps -
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Thursday, June 22, 2023
Stock Market Liquidity Perfect Storm / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2023
By: Monica_Kingsley
S&P 500 decline led by tech met a first hesitant, then more resolute, intraday rebound led by tech retracing prior decline that XLI, XLB and XLE were unable to counter. Thanks to weighting as the share of Top 7 stocks had grown considerably with this bear market rally, these rotations have been insufficient in lifting up the index.
And today isn‘t shaping up to be much better – after breaking my key 4,403, the bears have 4,385 followed by 4,360 in sight. Notably, this is happening when Treasury is sucking liquidity from the market place (that money to buy fresh debt issuance has to come from somewhere, and we can be debating the transmission mechanism strength and accounting) and the Fed is still shrinking its balance sheet. As yet another tightening sign, BoE just raised...
Today‘s unemployment claims are likely to reiterate the hawkish Fed message ultimately, as in that the central bank still has room to tighten – and more of the realization that it would do that, which neither 3m nor 6m yield reflect totally.
Tuesday, June 20, 2023
Stocks Climb a Wall of Worry, Technical Analysis Broken / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2023
By: Nadeem_Walayat
The stock market is literally climbing a wall of worry, refusing to give any opportunity for the mass of investors sat on the sidelines to jump on board the AI gravy trains unless they buy the highs! Most AI tech stocks are now very overbought i.e. Nvidia, Microsoft, Apple, KLAC, AVGO which had an insane spike last week to $933 that triggered one of my distant SELL limit orders at $899 (current $812).
Whilst many are very overbought that does not mean they cannot become more overbought! This is the problem with TA, the charts tells you that markets are over bought and ripe for a correction, and so one anticipates a fat juicy correction to accumulate into on buying opps perhaps down to below S&P 4000, but as I often state Technical Analysis on it;s own is a coin flip, and worse still is that which most focus on the S&P which is a RED HERRING! Put the two together and you can see how easy it is for most investors to be constantly wrong footed by a. focusing on the S&P and b. not realising that TA is not that reliable going forward, in hindsight its perfect, but going forward it's at best 55/45. One has to go beyond the charts and crunch the numbers and understand the fundamentals that differ for every stock.
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Sunday, June 18, 2023
Possible Replay of an Ominous Stock Market Price Pattern / Stock-Markets / Stock Market Crash
By: EWI
"I became panicky and covered at a considerable loss..."
The reason price patterns tend to repeat in the stock market is that investor psychology never changes.
The Elliott wave model directly reflects these largely predictable swings in investor psychology. That's what the Elliott wave principle is all about.
One of those price moves which has historically fooled investors is the first big rally in a bear market.
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Sunday, June 18, 2023
Countdown to ES Stock Market Downleg / Stock-Markets / Stock Index Trading
By: Monica_Kingsley
S&P 500 spike into options expiry Friday was predictably rejected, and tech led the daily reversal, joined by communications and discretionaries. This shot across the bow in the topping process (major top preceding lackluster summer culminating in Sep bottom) shows that Nasdaq wouldn‘t hesitate in leading the decline. That‘s the strength of passive investing in reverse – leading higher, and then leading lower.
This quad witching was a trial run, for I think the downtrend would establish itself within 2 weeks latest – and it wouldn‘t happen because of sharp deterioration in incoming data or proving that the mirage of avoiding recession is just that, a mirage. The market topping process thoroughly described a week ago would come from sheer overvaluation driven by AI FOMO that has taken stocks into extreme greed territory already – from realization thereof. Perhaps characteristically, while the bullish sentiment rises, stock funds are seeing outflows to bond funds.
Friday, June 16, 2023
Test-Drive This Go-To Global Forecasting Service / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2023
By: EWI
Dear reader,
Do you ever just feel completely run-ragged with all the choices and decisions you're presented with daily? I know I do.
What insurance carrier? What doctor? What school? What... the list is endless.
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Sunday, June 11, 2023
Stock Market Preps for CPI LIE Inflation PUMP and DUMP / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2023
By: Nadeem_Walayat
Dear Reader
Are the FOMO Maniacs about to get rug pulled?
We have CP LIE Tuesday and then the Fed rate meeting Wednesday in advance of which retail investors and many fund managers woke up June 1st to realise that there is a bull market underway and literally PANIC bought like a herd galloping towards the edge of the AI cliff.
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Monday, May 22, 2023
Stock Market CHEAT SHEET / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2023
By: Nadeem_Walayat
Dear Reader
It's your lucky day! You get access to my stock market brief that was made available to patrons just a few hours ago!
S&P 4192 - What if someone told you 7 months ago that TODAY the S&P would be trading at 4200 and the Dow at 33,900, how much would you value such analysis? $5 per month? https://www.patreon.com/Nadeem_Walayat
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Tuesday, May 09, 2023
Stock Market Swings Analysis Trend Forecast / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2023
By: Nadeem_Walayat
Swings Analysis
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Tuesday, May 09, 2023
More US Banks Could Collapse -- A Lot More / Stock-Markets / Financial Crisis 2023
By: EWI
This ETF "continues to make lower lows"
It's sobering to reflect on the fact that the second, third and fourth largest bank failures in U.S. history have all occurred in just the past few months.
They are First Republic, Silicon Valley Bank and Signature Bank of New York. The failure of Washington Mutual in 2008 still ranks first.
And here's an interesting factoid from the New York Post (May 1):
This year's 3 bank failures held $532B in assets -- more than all lenders that collapsed in 2008 crisis
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Friday, May 05, 2023
Current State of the Stocks Bull Market / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2023
By: Nadeem_Walayat
Ray Kurzweil was WRONG the SINGULARITY is NOW!
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Friday, May 05, 2023
How "Insane Optimism" is at Work in the Stock Market / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2023
By: EWI
"Stock investors are so bullish that they are..."
Many technical indicators are highly useful, yet the price moves of the stock market really boil down to two things: optimism and pessimism.
Major trend turns tend to occur when extremes are reached in either optimism or pessimism.
Most recently, optimism has been in charge. The question is: Has an extreme been reached?
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Sunday, April 30, 2023
QE-Light Forestalls Crisis…For Now / Stock-Markets / Quantitative Easing
By: Michael_Pento
First Quarter GDP increased at only a 1.1% seasonally adjusted annual rate. That was down from 2.6% in Q4 of last year, which was down from 3.2% during Q3. Despite the clear slowdown in economic growth, there still exists a battle between Wall Street's soft-landing narrative, where inflation comes down in the context of robust growth. And the other, and more accurate scenario, where inflation falls because of a recession.You just can't get the ROC of inflation and growth to increase when money supply growth plunges from 27% in 2021 to one that is contracting by 4%, as of the latest March data.
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Saturday, April 29, 2023
Banking Crisis is Stocks Bull Market Buying Opportunity / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2023
By: Nadeem_Walayat
It's CPI Tuesday! We usually get a fake out move going into CPI then a reversal soon after which given that the market has been falling since the 6th of March into CPI data release then we should be setting up for a reversal higher some time after release of CP LIE which chimes with my end of the correction expectations given that both primary (3900) and secondary (3820) correction targets have been fulfilled.
Last month my CPI forecast table suggested to expect 6.28% vs actual of 6.4%. For February the table expects a sharp drop to 5.66% vs consensus of 6%, actual is probably going to be somewhere between 5.66% and 6%, so a net positive CPI data release should give weight to the next Fed rate hike being 0,25% instead of 0.5%, with the really big CPI drop coming on April's data release after which I expect inflation will become more sticky.
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Thursday, April 27, 2023
Stock Market Trend to New Bull Market High / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2023
By: Nadeem_Walayat
Current Trend
The S&P remains in a downtrend i.e. lower highs and lows and thus continues to target a break of 3800 on the short-term basis. In terms of swings the correction could extend to as deep as 3745 though I doubt it will go that low, more likely will bounce around between 3890 and 3780 for a few days.
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Thursday, April 27, 2023
Never bet Bgainst America unless… / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2023
By: Stephen_McBride
Warren Buffett’s latest move might surprise you… US stocks are passing the torch... Plus, a dead-simple way to invest in this big shift…
- When Warren Buffett makes an unusual move… pay attention.
Buffett is likely the best investor of all time.
His firm Berkshire Hathaway (BRK.A) delivered an average annual return of 20% from 1965 to 2022, which turned a $1,000 investment into $38 million.
Buffett is known for buying large stakes in iconic American companies. He’s invested billions of dollars into brands like Apple (AAPL), Coca-Cola (KO), and American Express (AXP).
Tuesday, April 18, 2023
Destabilizing Debt Ensures the Financial Crisis Has Just Begun / Stock-Markets / Financial Crisis 2023
By: Michael_Pento
The debt-disabled U.S. economy cannot withstand the surge in borrowing costs, and the reduction in
money supply growth necessary to combat the record-high inflation suffered over the past few years.
Our beloved U.S. Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen said she believes the American economy remains
strong and its banking system is resilient. That is, if you close your mind and overlook the recent
bankruptcy of three financial institutions. Keep in mind this is the same person who assured us that we
would never see another financial crisis in our lifetime. So, it is self-serving for her to deflect attention
away from the economic meltdown that is on the horizon.
Tuesday, April 18, 2023
Stock Market Sucking in Buyers / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2023
By: Monica_Kingsley
S&P 500 bears missed a good intraday opportunity after winning for 6 hrs in the regular session. For all the market breadth limping along, it was Russell 2000, financials and industrials with materials that did well, no matter what energy, precious metals and cryptos see on the horizon.
Bearish divergencies in advancing-declining issues, new high-new lows, even merely stocks above the 50-day moving averages in S&P 500 and Nasdaq – amply described yesterday together with earnings, job market and manufacturing (LEIs) data ahead, haven‘t invalidated the medium-term bearish case for stocks. For all the shrinking liquidity talked, this rally is proceeding – sell in May and go away“ seasonal effect would be weaker than usual.
(…) Disruptive tech (AI driving semiconductors) remains well placed. … So, we have tech stocks to outperform value in the current low growth environment, would the thinking go, however if you check market breadth in Nasdaq, the bearish divergence in the making is even worse than in S&P 500. It‘s the big names and semiconductors holding it up, while advance-decline line and new highs-new lows are largely struggling.
Monday, April 10, 2023
Stock Markets Counting Down to US CPI Inflation Data Release / Stock-Markets / Inflation
By: Nadeem_Walayat
It's CPI Tuesday! We usually get a fake out move going into CPI then a reversal soon after which given that the market has been falling since the 6th of March into CPI data release then we should be setting up for a reversal higher some time after release of CP LIE which chimes with my end of the correction expectations given that both primary (3900) and secondary (3820) correction targets have been fulfilled.
Last month my CPI forecast table suggested to expect 6.28% vs actual of 6.4%. For February the table expects a sharp drop to 5.66% vs consensus of 6%, actual is probably going to be somewhere between 5.66% and 6%, so a net positive CPI data release should give weight to the next Fed rate hike being 0,25% instead of 0.5%, with the really big CPI drop coming on April's data release after which I expect inflation will become more sticky.
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Monday, April 03, 2023
Stock Market Counting Down to Pump and Dump US CPI LIE Inflation Data Release / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2023
By: Nadeem_Walayat
US CPI Data released for October, November, December and January show the CPLIE script of usually a fake out drop ahead or on release followed by strong rally on relief that whatever the data is, it was not quite as bad as it could have been and thus triggers a FOMO rally fed by bears shorting during the preceding decline rushing to cover their shorts, and so are we in for a similar event Tuesday? or is this time going to be more like December, the only time when there was a deviation from the script as it was looking rather obvious by then and hence the market did the opposite, what is obvious right now? Probably a FOIMO rally, so on face value suggests to expect the opposite which is what I have been positioning towards these past weeks.
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Saturday, April 01, 2023
America on Verge of Losing Petrodollar Privilege / Stock-Markets / US Dollar
By: MoneyMetals
As gold prices continue to hold firm near the $2,000 level, bulls are eying big developments ahead for the monetary metal along with the global monetary system.
Gold’s potential ascendancy to new record highs is coinciding with a decline in the global status of the U.S. dollar as world’s reserve currency.
China is pushing for its currency, the yuan, to be the primary competitor to the dollar in international trade. It has forged new partnerships with Russia and other countries who are willing to deal directly in Chinese yuan.
Friday, March 24, 2023
How the Stock Market Reacts to US CPI Data Releases / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2023
By: Nadeem_Walayat
US CPI Data released for October, November, December and January show the CPLIE script of usually a fake out drop ahead or on release followed by strong rally on relief that whatever the data is, it was not quite as bad as it could have been and thus triggers a FOMO rally fed by bears shorting during the preceding decline rushing to cover their shorts, and so are we in for a similar event Tuesday? or is this time going to be more like December, the only time when there was a deviation from the script as it was looking rather obvious by then and hence the market did the opposite, what is obvious right now? Probably a FOIMO rally, so on face value suggests to expect the opposite which is what I have been positioning towards these past weeks.
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Friday, March 24, 2023
Silicon Valley Bank, Silvergate and "The Everything Bust" / Stock-Markets / Financial Crisis 2023
By: EWI
Silicon Valley Bank, Silvergate and "The Everything Bust"
"The pressure on banks will rise"
The phrase "Everything Bust" means a bust in just about every financial risk-asset of which you can think, as well as the economy and, I dare say, the financial system itself.
Indeed, in a section titled "The Everything Bust Is on The Way," the December Global Market Perspective, a monthly Elliott Wave International publication which covers 50-plus financial markets, noted:
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Tuesday, March 21, 2023
Stock Market Completes Phase Transition, US Real Estate Stocks - Housing Market Part1 / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2023
By: Nadeem_Walayat
Virtually everyone was open jawed last week as to why the hell are stock prices soaring on BAD EARNINGS reports and yes regardless of how the headless chickens on the cartoon network (CNBC) were reacting in trying to explain the price action they were BAD EARNINGS reports as flagged by the EGF's which had zero impact on stock prices that instead of plunging soared into the stratosphere, why? It's because earnings reports are looking in the rear view mirror at what has already happened which is why one needs to be aware of current EGF and future EGF as well as current P/E relative to the high-low P/E range for each stock as shown in my AI stocks table. Our perception of time is not linear as we flit from the past (memories) into the future (forecasts, hopes and dreams) and back into the present, in a constant state of flux and so it is for all market participants which is the true nature of the markets, everything, everywhere all at once.
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Thursday, March 16, 2023
Macro transition; Goldilocks now, Deflation later / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2023
By: Gary_Tanashian
Since projecting the Q4-Q1 broad market rally back in November, we have been managing a macro transition within this rally. Based on the leadership of the Semiconductor sector and Tech, it has been dubbed a “Goldilocks” (inflationary pressures not too hot, not too cold) transition, as inflationary pressures ease (the inflation has come and gone, while it’s lagging supply chain and services related effects linger on) and the former inflation trades under-perform.
There is a word for what supply chain and related services are doing and it’s called “gouging” by opportunistic entities squeezing the inflation hysteria for all it is worth. But I digress.
While waiting for the gold stock sector to truly become unique (not quite yet) in the post-bubble environment an honest look at the macro will yield a developing fundamentally positive view for gold mining (details beyond the scope of this article), but also insofar as the macro transition from Goldilocks to deflation has not yet come about, a hell of a lot of quality Tech/Growth stocks beaten down and looking to rally (actually, many have already begun to rally).
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Monday, March 06, 2023
Stocks Bull Market Milestones / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2023
By: Nadeem_Walayat
The Chat AI War has begun! You thought it was game over with Open AI GPT? That is just the start! In fact I consider GPT a toddler compared to Google's Einstein! Because GOOGLE MONETIZES their AI to the tune of $40 billion per quarter! It's called Google SEARCH! Whilst Microsoft is onto a winner of sorts, however it isn't going to even come close to dethroning Google!
Woo hoo mission accomplished on run to S&P 4040! What mission? Trimming! Cash on accounts up from 7% a couple of weeks ago 10.8% today, trust me having adequate cash on account makes a big difference to ones investing psychology, the difference between fearing price drops to anticipating them even if one is near 90% invested, so maybe those skimming along at near 100% invested need to look into trimming, for me 12% cash is my current goldilocks zone as a function of the accounts I hold i.e. a wide spectrum from those designed for high turnover such as Etorro right trough to the glacial Interactive Investor and AJ Bell where one is reluctant to act due to rip off fees, which is actually a good thing for the long run.
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Tuesday, February 28, 2023
Current State of the Stocks Stealth Bull Market / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2023
By: Nadeem_Walayat
The Dow closed Monday at 33,629 vs the trend forecast road map of 32,750, so the Dow continues to show a positive deviation against the forecast of +2.7%, up from the +2.2% deviation as of 9th of Jan.
- Stocks Bear Market Max PAIN - Trend Forecast Analysis to Dec 2023 - Part1
- Stock Market Analysis and Trend Forecast Oct 2022 to Dec 2023
Sunday, February 26, 2023
Stock Market Every thing Every Where All At Once! / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2023
By: Nadeem_Walayat
Virtually everyone was open jawed last week as to why the hell are stock prices soaring on BAD EARNINGS reports and yes regardless of how the headless chickens on the cartoon network (CNBC) were reacting in trying to explain the price action they were BAD EARNINGS reports as flagged by the EGF's which had zero impact on stock prices that instead of plunging soared into the stratosphere, why? It's because earnings reports are looking in the rear view mirror at what has already happened which is why one needs to be aware of current EGF and future EGF as well as current P/E relative to the high-low P/E range for each stock as shown in my AI stocks table. Our perception of time is not linear as we flit from the past (memories) into the future (forecasts, hopes and dreams) and back into the present, in a constant state of flux and so it is for all market participants which is the true nature of the markets, everything, everywhere all at once.
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Monday, February 20, 2023
Stock Market US Presidential Election Cycle and Recessions / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2023
By: Nadeem_Walayat
Dear Reader
Did you catch the Pump into last weeks US CP LIE data followed by the Dump? What happen's next - Stock Market Counting Down to Pump and Dump US CPI LIE Inflation Data Release
The Santa rally that runs for 7 trading days into the start of each new year expired on the 4th of January and believe it or not technically we actually got a Santa rally, the 7th straight Santa rally in a row.
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Monday, February 20, 2023
Silent Killers of Stock and Bond Investors 50+ / Stock-Markets / Investing 2023
By: Chris_Vermeulen
Recently I was shocked after speaking with five different investors on the phone. These investors have been involved in the markets for many years, and they trade their accounts. Surprisingly, not a single one of them knew what drawdowns were, as there are two types. In short, it is how we gauge an overall investment strategy’s risk level so you know if a given approach fits within your risk tolerance.
I did a survey several years ago that still blows my mind because the results were so backwards and frustrating. To this day, I’m experiencing the same thing with traders and investors, so I want to talk about it here – drawdowns and what you may not know about them.
A drawdown measures how much an investment or trading account is down from its highest point. It is used to quantify the extent of loss suffered by an investor or trader during a period of market decline. A drawdown is expressed as a percentage. Also, the maximum drawdown (MaxDD) is the largest percentage drop from the account’s highest point to its lowest point over the life of the strategy, which in laymen’s terms, is the largest loss.
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Sunday, February 19, 2023
The Truth No One Wants to Hear about Stocks / Stock-Markets / Investing 2023
By: Submissions
By Justin Spittler : I’ve been getting under some people’s skin.And it’s because I’ve been unapologetically bullish for the last couple months.
I get it. No one wants to hear the bull argument after the horrible year we just had in stocks.
But things have changed.
Many investors haven’t entertained the possibility that last year’s bear market is over.
They’re certain the stock market will head much lower.
Their arguments sound something like: “Inflation is still too high; the economy is speeding toward a recession; the Fed isn’t done raising rates.”
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Saturday, February 18, 2023
S&P Stock Market FOMO Rally / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2023
By: Nadeem_Walayat
Whilst the Dow has raged higher off its October low unfortunately our portfolios are far more in tune with the S&P which has under performed the Dow to significant degree. However the good news is that the S&P tends to outperform the Dow during bull markets so will catchup to and pass the Dow during 2023.
The S&P soared through 3900 running the stops sucking the S&P higher to 3953 as I flagged it would well ahead of the break higher in the comments section of the last posted article. So do check the comments section as I continue to provide patrons with my short-term view on a near daily basis as well as doing my utmost to answer patron queries. Also note, the Patreon app does not always show all of the charts so it is best to access the Patreon via a browser either from your phone, tablet or desktop PC rather than the from the ap.
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Saturday, February 18, 2023
Stock Market US Presidential Election Cycle and Recessions / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2023
By: Nadeem_Walayat
Apparently everyone assumes that a recession during 2023 is a done deal! However an analysis of recessions in terms of the US presidential election cycle suggests that a recession during 2023 is a very low probability event and that the actual recession may not materialise until 2024.
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Tuesday, February 14, 2023
Stock Market Sowing the Seeds for the Most Unexpected Bull Run in History / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2023
By: Nadeem_Walayat
Stock Market Sowing the Seeds for the Most Unexpected Bull Run in History
The Santa rally that runs for 7 trading days into the start of each new year expired on the 4th of January and believe it or not technically we actually got a Santa rally, the 7th straight Santa rally in a row.
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Tuesday, February 14, 2023
Stock Market PUMP ahead of US CPI LIE Inflation Data Release DUMP / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2023
By: Nadeem_Walayat
US CPI Data released for October, November, December and January show the CPLIE script of usually a fake out drop ahead or on release followed by strong rally on relief that whatever the data is, it was not quite as bad as it could have been and thus triggers a FOMO rally fed by bears shorting during the preceding decline rushing to cover their shorts, and so are we in for a similar event Tuesday? or is this time going to be more like December, the only time when there was a deviation from the script as it was looking rather obvious by then and hence the market did the opposite, what is obvious right now? Probably a FOIMO rally, so on face value suggests to expect the opposite which is what I have been positioning towards these past weeks.
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Wednesday, February 08, 2023
S&P500, Gold, Silver and Crypto's Trend Forecasts 2023 / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2023
By: Nadeem_Walayat
In terms of my stock market trend forecast the Dow by now would be trading at approx 32,500 vs actual last close of 33,203 for a +0.9% deviation, imagine if someone told you where the Dow will be in 3 months time and by that time the Dow is within 1% of the forecast price, so the forecast is proving to be an accurate road map against which to measure relative strength or weakness.
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Wednesday, February 08, 2023
Clown Cramer META is FINISHED at $100 on CNBC Cartoon Network at Mother of Tech Stocks Buying Opps! / Stock-Markets / Mainstream Media
By: Nadeem_Walayat
Wonder why you did not buy META when the stock was trading down to UNDER $100! It is because it is not easy to buy stocks when they are dirt cheap unless one has a plan, already has a list of target stocks to buy and BUY THEM WHEN CHEAP! BUY THEM WHEN BLOOD IS POURING OUT OF ONES EYES at the draw downs they are generating! BUY THEM when MSM are SAYIING they are now DEAD stocks! As clown Cramer was saying during October, DO NOT BUY TECH STOCKS this clown was spouting as I and hopefully many patrons were catching the many falling knives during Octobers bloodbath, Clown Cramer on the CNBC Cartoon network was stating that the tech stocks were finished, META was finished at $100 per share! When it WAS the mother of all buying opps! CNBC IS the CARTOON NETWORK!
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Saturday, February 04, 2023
Stocks Broke Higher, Will S&P 500 Go to 4,200? / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2023
By: Paul_Rejczak
The S&P 500 index gained 1.05% on Wednesday, as it broke above the 4,100 level and some previous local highs following the FOMC interest rate decision announcement. Recently the broad stock market’s gauge was extending its bounce from January 19 local low of 3,885.54.Stocks will likely open 0.7% higher this morning after quarterly earnings, economic data releases. So the market will extend an uptrend, and the S&P 500 may get closer to the important 4,200 level. It went the highest since late August of 2022 yesterday, as we can see on the daily chart:
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Tuesday, January 31, 2023
Market Wake Up Call / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2023
By: Monica_Kingsley
S&P 500 did a fakeout yesterday, and closed on a weak note. Nothing sectorally enouraging, and even the mere comparison of Russell 2000 to emerging markets downswings reveals that more is to come today – extending also to real assets. Monday and Tuesday volatility are to turn out higher than I would appreciate, and illustrate the degree to which markets ran with the unreasonable optimism during Fed blackout.
Quoting yesterday‘s not to miss analysis:
(…) The rumor is still being bought, and selling the news would be overcome. The Fed would of course go with 25bp while not commiting to 50bp Mar (25bp are practically baked in the cake, and when I look at the short end of the curve and various yield spreads, I agree with that. The Fed will try to talk some good restrictive game, and will do its best to keep rates at restrictive levels for as long as possible, but Fed funds rate at 5% appears as sound estimate before recession rubber meets the road in Q2 2023.
Tuesday, January 31, 2023
Here's a Strong Indication That the Stocks Bear Market Has Legs / Stock-Markets / Stocks Bear Market
By: EWI
This is what investors look for at or near a stock market low
Elliott Wave International's analysts have been observing financial markets for decades. They monitor dozens of stock market indicators, in addition to Elliott wave patterns.
No single indicator can tell the whole story of what's going on with the market, but sometimes, a single observation can carry a lot of weight.
One current observation is that many investors are still looking for reasons to be bullish, even though stocks have been in a downtrend for more than a year. In other words, they think the bear market is over.
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Monday, January 30, 2023
Stock Market Big Week Ahead / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2023
By: Monica_Kingsley
S&P 500 charge higher continued, and high beta plays didn‘t disappoint. Energy, financials, Russell 2000, emerging markets – all on fire. After Thursday‘s climb of bear market rally wall of worry (we‘re rather to meet recession and not soft landing – the contraction will be mild till Q3 2023), we‘re in for a daily deceleration today as I don‘t think yesterday‘s complacency would last till the closing bell.
The weakness will likely show up in bonds first, underpinning the dollar – and the rest would be history. All on a daily basis – you can look forward for extensive pre-FOMC analysis next week!
Monday, January 30, 2023
Riding the Stock Market FOMO Rally in Tech Stocks - Investing 2023 / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2023
By: Nadeem_Walayat
Stock Market FOMO rally us underway, were you already fully invested months ago or have you been watching too much of CNBC cartoon network and are thus sat on the sidelines or worse FOMO-ing in right now, here's how I am riding the FOMO rally off the October 2022 low.
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Tuesday, January 24, 2023
Stock Market on the Launch Pad for Post CPI To the Moon Rally / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2023
By: Nadeem_Walayat
Santa's Stock Market sledge is on the launch pad, t-minus 2 hours to go until release of November CPI data at 1.30pm UK time. Octobers release was 7.7%, consensus for November is for 7.3%, and 6,1% for Core CPLIE. A quick review of the monthly data suggests to expect CPI of 7.4%, so whilst not a beat would be a relief that CPLIE is at it's lowest since November last year, so would be taken as a cue for SANTA to deliver the last leg of the rally off the October low that has already achieved my base case target of 4100 thus should set the scene for the over shoot phase to at least 4160, with ample time to propel stocks for an assault on S&P 4200, break of which we would send stocks into the FOMO phase that would target a break of the August high of 4316 which has basically been my view for over month.
Therefore my expectations are for Santa to take the rally a notch higher north of 4100, for an over shoot to about 4160, beyond which is the 4200 barrier above which FOMO froth, that could be triggered by CPI of 7.2% or lower, though that is not what the actual data suggests toe expect, i.e. 7.3% or 7.4% looks more probable. Still it is good to remember that the S&P has already had a 17.7% bull run off it's MId October low of 3481 to it's recent high of 4100, so to achieve 4160 and above would be the icing on the cake. Swing projections that have proven reliable concur with this outlook by projecting to 4340 into the end of the year.
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Thursday, January 19, 2023
Stock Market Changing Bias / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2023
By: Monica_Kingsley
S&P 500 didn‘t take kindly to deteriorating data – after a long time, bad news was indeed taken as bad news. The pivot hopes are receding, and recession prospects come to the fore, which was the subject of Tuesday‘s extensive analysis.
The turn in sentiment was fast, however our long S&P 500 and copper gains were protected by tightened stop-losses, taking the model portfolio significantly higher - .above $280K from $50K starting Jan 2021 (check my homepage for descriptions - no slippage, commissions, taxes. Past performance is no guarantee of future results).That‘s the proper long-term view with odds heavily in your favor through diligent analytics!
Wednesday, January 18, 2023
State of the Global Stock and Financial Markets / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2023
By: EWI
Hi,
FACT: Most mainstream market pundits were BULLISH THE WORLD at the start of 2022.
FACT: CASH outperformed stocks AND bonds AND cryptos AND gold AND real estate in 2022.
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Monday, January 16, 2023
Stock Market SEASONAL ANALYSIS Trend Forecast 2023 / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2023
By: Nadeem_Walayat
The seasonal pattern suggests after a pause in Feb, higher into late April, then correct from early May into late June followed by a volatile summer terminating in a swing low during September that should set the scene for a bull run into the Christmas Holidays with of course intra month volatility during October that resolve to the upside just as the perma-bears are crowing at their loudest that the end is neigh.
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Sunday, January 15, 2023
Stock Market Q1 and Q2 Pull Back Forecast / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2023
By: Donald_W_Dony
This report is our fifth article since September about the maturing bull market and the multiple road signs that are developing.
One of the signs of a maturing economy is the rise in inflation. As the economy continues to expand, there is ongoing pressure for goods and services. Employment is usually at a record high and consumer spending continues to rise (as they both are now).
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Wednesday, January 11, 2023
The Perfect Storm For Stock Market Investors To Lose Big In 2023 Is Upon Us, Unless… / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2023
By: Chris_Vermeulen
Last week I rang the bell telling investors and traders to wake up and smell the hot coffee because 2023 is going to be a life-changing year, and likely, not for the better.
The 30,000-foot view of where we are in the stock market cycle is shown on my gauge.
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Wednesday, January 11, 2023
Stock Market Dialing Back Fears / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2023
By: Monica_Kingsley
S&P 500 refused a panicky decline into Powell‘s speech, and swiftly recovered on no fresh hawkish clues. Market breadth improved, and the sellers weren‘t falling over themselves. 3,910 held, and there were no tests of the bottom border of the support zone at 3,895. While real assets didn‘t spurt to the upside yesterday, they‘re likely to catch up today and tomorrow.
Tomorrow, because after initial turbulence over CPI (and especially core CPI!) not declining as fast as the market (and the central bank!) wishes with regard to Fed pivot dreams, I think the positive market reaction to a still reasonably fast declining inflation figure, would prevail (6.6 – 6.7% is enough) – and that we would continue on the march to making a Jan top. Remaining nimble is the name of the game!
Monday, January 09, 2023
Are Stocks In a New Uptrend? / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2023
By: Paul_Rejczak
On Friday the S&P 500 was the highest since mid-December - will the short-term uptrend continue?
The S&P 500 index gained 2.28% on Friday, as investors reacted to better-than-expected monthly jobs data release. The broad stock market’s gauge broke above its recent trading range and it went the highest since December 15, as the daily high was at 3,906.19.
The broad stock market is expected to open 0.5% higher this morning, so stock prices will likely extend their short-term advance. There may be a selling pressure and some profit-taking action as the market gets closer to the resistance level of around 3,920-3,930, marked by the previous local lows, as we can see on the daily chart:
Monday, January 09, 2023
Stock Market Bad Is the New Good / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2023
By: Monica_Kingsley
Fitting summary of S&P 500 rally – we‘ve seen one of the largest 2y yields daily declines on slowing wage inflation. ISM Services PMIs also added to the Fed hawkishness reappraisal. Squeezing the bears, credit markets were confirming with a risk-on turn likewise.
Daily market breadth was really good, and spells that the move isn‘t over in the least. It progressed fast on the double punch – NFPs not coming in too hot, and real economy slowdown. Where does that leave us? With more prospects for LEIs moving lower, real estate declines, earnings downgrades and ultimately unemployment increase.
All in the name of fighting inflation, after the transitory debacle I called Apr 2021 vocally. Now, the Fed is to keep tightening into a slowing economy (and ready to overdo it), and its targets of CPI below 5% in 2023 and at 2.5% in 2024, are too rosy.
Apart from the shape of the recession, and how well it would be cushioned by the U.S. consumer (look at confidence, expectations, retail sales, deliquencies etc), the key questions are just how far the Fed would take the Fed funds rate, and how long it wishes to keep it at its own evolving definition of a restrictive level.
Saturday, January 07, 2023
Financial Markets Outlook 2023 - Recession Will Create Opportunities / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2023
By: Submissions
Owen WIlliams writes: As we close out 2022, the worst year for stocks since 2008, we enter 2023 with an elevated risk of seeing an economic recession. From a U.S.-perspective, 2022 was a rare year during which both stocks and bonds suffered major losses. The fastest pace of interest rate hikes since the Volker era, with a 425 bp increase in the Fed Funds rate, penalized both major asset classes and will certainly have repercussions beyond 2022. As many market observers and Fed officials often remind us, interest rate hikes have a long and variable impact on the economy and markets.Before presenting our outlook for each asset class, we share a few general observations for the new year. First, we have never seen two consecutive years during which BOTH equities and bonds have had dismal years. One of the two asset classes should turn in a much stronger performance in 2023. As we explain below, our bet is on fixed income, although there are many attractive areas in equities (outside of the indexes) which are already worth moving into for a long-term position.
Second, we see the extreme reversal in central bank interest rate policy as all part of the Covid episode. The central bank monetary policy, along with the Federal government fiscal policy, reaction to the Covid shutdown was disproportionate, maintained too long, and in our opinion was unnecessary. Policy mistakes in one direction often must be reversed by policy mistakes in the other direction. We believe that this is what is playing out. The Covid episode in its entirety (including the lagged policy mistakes) will become what we refer to as a “watershed moment” for markets. A watershed moment is a major dislocation in markets after any type of excess, be it market-drive (Tech Bubble) or policy-driven (Covid and Housing Bubble). After each dislocation in the past 40 years, we have seen a change in market leadership. As we explain in the Equity section below, the change in leadership we are expecting in this cycle is for relative equity market leadership to shift to international stocks and away from U.S. stocks, which have massively dominated since the Financial Crisis.
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Friday, January 06, 2023
How High Could the Impossible Stocks Bull Market Fly / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2023
By: Nadeem_Walayat
Dear Reader
Temperate CPI sends stocks soaring to the moon with Fridays close of 3992 literally within touching distance of breaking above 4000. A week ago I wrote - "there may be more sideways to down price action given the drags we have this week with the Mid-terms and the 10th of November CPI release that could hold stocks back until after their conclusion. Nevertheless as long as the 3620 low holds then the pattern remains in tact for an eventual break higher of 3920 to target 4000+ where I would expect the S&P to achieve 4100 by Christmas and by the time this rally is done we may even see a break above 4300."
And so as soon as the CPI dark clouds were lifted the stock market soared, though you would not think it had if you read or watched any of the usual suspects, that's tweeters, youtubers, and the blogosfear. Not a bull in sight! Were they all caught with their short pants down? Glum faces all round! A collective case of WTH is going on! Confounded disbelief which I suspect will only lift towards the end of this rally when the herd FOMO's into the top similar to August.
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Monday, January 02, 2023
THE TWIN TOWERS OF BABEL ARE COMING DOWN EQUITIES AND BONDS / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2023
By: Darryl_R_Schoon
When leveraged debt is money, what’s to worry?
For three hundred years, the banker’s ponzi-scheme of debt-based money brought wealth to the bankers and power to governments. Nothing lasts forever, however. In 2023, the dangers long dormant beneath the bankers’ debt-based markets are going to erupt.
BlackRock says get ready for a recession unlike any other and 'what worked in the past won't work now' – December 8, 2022
A worldwide recession is just around the corner as central banks boost borrowing costs aggressively to tame inflation — and this time, it will ignite more market turbulence than ever before, according to BlackRock.
The global economy has already exited a four-decade era of stable growth and inflation to enter a period of heightened instability — and the new regime of increased unpredictability is here to stay, according to the world's biggest asset manager.
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Sunday, January 01, 2023
Stock Market Trend Forecast Into End 2023 / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2023
By: Nadeem_Walayat
What if someone told you where the Dow stocks index will be trading at in 3 months time and by that time the index was within 1% of where it was forecast it would be. How much would you value such analysis, furthermore without the benefit of hindsight that forecast did not just end there but continued on for a further whole year, what's that worth? Given that many so called analysts can't even go beyond a trading day.
Well that is what you are going to be in receipt of in this the final part of my 6 part series that concludes in a detailed Dow stock market trend forecast into the end of 2023 which my Patrons gained access to on 5th October 2022, that forecast that the Dow by now would be trading at 32,850 against actual last close of 33,147 (30th of December 2022), which represents a less than 1% deviation against the trend forecast.
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Saturday, December 31, 2022
Dow Stock Market Trend Forecast to December 2023 / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2023
By: Nadeem_Walayat
Dear Reader
What if someone told you where the Dow stocks index will be trading at in 3 months time and by that time the index was within 1% of where it was forecast it would be. How much would you value such analysis, furthermore without the benefit of hindsight that forecast did not just end there but continued on for a further whole year, what's that worth? Given that many so called analysts can't even go beyond a trading day.
Well that is what you are going to be in receipt of in this the final part of my 6 part series that concludes in a detailed Dow stock market trend forecast into the end of 2023 which my Patrons gained access to on 5th October 2022, that forecast that the Dow by now would be trading at 32,850 against actual last close of 33,147 (30th of December 2022), which represents a less than 1% deviation against the trend forecast.
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Saturday, December 31, 2022
Stock Market and 10 Year U.S. Treasury Bond Yields - Trend Forecast 2023 / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2023
By: Nadeem_Walayat
The consensus view is that falling bond yields are good for stocks. However that is not accurate, what stocks like is mildly falling OR rising bond yields. What stocks do not like is what we have witnessed since the start of the year, that is fast moving bond yields as the bond bubble burst in the wake of HIGH INFLATION.
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Friday, December 30, 2022
Stock Market Cool as a Cucumber Despite Earnings and Fed Noise / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2022
By: Nadeem_Walayat
I got my COVD AUTUMN BOOSTER JAB (Pfizer Biontech) Saturday afternoon, unfortunately I have since been paying the price in terms of side effects that kicked in some 12 hours afterwards with shivers and chills, and continue as I write some 36 hours later I am feeling like I have a light flu, lethargic, lack of energy, drowsy despite having slept for over 12 hours. some Brain fog. Still I will see this article posted even if it is the last thing I do!
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Friday, December 30, 2022
Dow Stock Market Annual Percent Change Analysis - Trend Forecast 2023 / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2023
By: Nadeem_Walayat
In my extensive analysis of September 2021 this indicator warned to expect the Dow to drop to 28k, the low to date has been 28.7k! For the bull market proper to resume this indicator needs trade above the thick black line, until then the market remains in no mans land of trading within range with the risks of worse to come. Most probable is the market trades in a range i.e. to trade above the blue dotted line, until the market has worked through it's bear phase. At this point I am discounting a re-run of 2008, as so far the indicator is showing a tendency to remain above the grey line, however this also implies that the bull market proper could be as much as a year away! In terms of price, the Dow is not going to see a new all time high anytime soon, probably beyond the end of 2023.
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Thursday, December 29, 2022
How Stocks Bear Markets DIE! Technical Trend Analysis Forecast 2023 / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2023
By: Nadeem_Walayat
The Dow is bouncing off a new bear market low of 28,700 having already broken above the preceding low of 29.7k that targets resistance at 31k. However given the degree of momentum behind this rally the Dow could easily continue climbing to target 32k which would represent a sizeable 12% advance in what I would consider as being a sub-swing i.e. not the whole move which implies that this rally that apparently is being dismissed by most as bear market rally could eventually retrace the whole disown move from the 34k high. But for now the Dow 1st targets 31k and then 32k before it is likely to correct towards 30.5k before RESUMING it's bull run.
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Wednesday, December 28, 2022
Formulating a Stock Market Trend Forecast for 2023 / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2023
By: Nadeem_Walayat
The character of this bear market has been changing since the June low, first came the break above 33.3k into the August FOMO peak. and then came the decline to 28.7k that whilst a new bear market low was weak in trend channel terms.
so what is going on?
ACCUMULATION is what's going on, Accumulating since the June low. It should be fairly obvious that there is a lot of buying gone on and market manipulation so as to allow it to happen. It's as though the wolfs of wall street are leading the retail investor lambs to slaughter as the retail crowd are dealt hammer blows in either direction aimed at fleecing them of their wealth.
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Wednesday, December 28, 2022
Formulating a Stock Market Trend Forecast for 2023 / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2023
By: Nadeem_Walayat
The character of this bear market has been changing since the June low, first came the break above 33.3k into the August FOMO peak. and then came the decline to 28.7k that whilst a new bear market low was weak in trend channel terms.
so what is going on?
ACCUMULATION is what's going on, Accumulating since the June low. It should be fairly obvious that there is a lot of buying gone on and market manipulation so as to allow it to happen. It's as though the wolfs of wall street are leading the retail investor lambs to slaughter as the retail crowd are dealt hammer blows in either direction aimed at fleecing them of their wealth.
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Monday, December 26, 2022
How Stocks Bear Markets DIE! Technical Trend Analysis Forecast 2023 / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2023
By: Nadeem_Walayat
Dear Reader
Dow Short-term Trend Analysis
The Dow is bouncing off a new bear market low of 28,700 having already broken above the preceding low of 29.7k that targets resistance at 31k. However given the degree of momentum behind this rally the Dow could easily continue climbing to target 32k which would represent a sizeable 12% advance in what I would consider as being a sub-swing i.e. not the whole move which implies that this rally that apparently is being dismissed by most as bear market rally could eventually retrace the whole disown move from the 34k high. But for now the Dow 1st targets 31k and then 32k before it is likely to correct towards 30.5k before RESUMING it's bull run.
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Monday, December 26, 2022
US Economy and Stock Market Addicted to Deficit Spending - Trend Forecast 2023 / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2023
By: Nadeem_Walayat
Want to know what tends to drive the stock market into the stratosphere? US Deficit Spending! (actually twin deficits including Trade).
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Friday, December 23, 2022
TESLA MARGIN CALL PANIC - Margin Debt Analysis - Stock Market Trend Forecast 2023 / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2023
By: Nadeem_Walayat
Over leveraged investors in Tesla are learning a painful lesson right now as they are getting kicked out of their positions right at the bottom!
Margin debt tends to peak and fall long before the stock market turns lower as basically speculators start to feel the pain of holding losing positions and thus cut back on their bets. Either that or are forced to close their losing trades due to failure to meet margin calls, in which respect this indicator proved very useful in flagging the prospects for a bear market long before it materialised as stock prices trended higher on petrol fumes as the fuel tank was empty.
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Wednesday, December 21, 2022
The Definitive Guide to FTX’s Crypto Collapse / Stock-Markets / cryptocurrency
By: Stephen_McBride
Everything you need to know about FTX’s collapse in plain English... What it means for crypto... Is Coinbase next?... And what all crypto investors need to do right now...
Is crypto dead?
That’s the question many folks around the Thanksgiving table were asking following crypto exchange FTX’s collapse.
I’ve been following the fallout from FTX’s collapse closely in my premium RiskHedge Venture service. But this analysis is too important to only share with a fraction of our readers. So today, let’s look at what really caused FTX’s downfall… what it means for crypto prices… and how to position yourself for the rebound.
Tuesday, December 20, 2022
STOCK MARKET DISCOUNTING EVENTS BIG PICTURE - Trend Forecast 2023 / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2023
By: Nadeem_Walayat
Firstly this video is an excerpt of my mega-analysis that concludes in a detailed stock market trend forecast into the end of 2023, that was first made available to patrons who support my work, so for immediate first access to all of my analysis then do consider becoming a patron from supporting my work for just 4 bucks for month, lock it in now as it is set to rise to 5 bucks per month in the new year.
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Sunday, December 18, 2022
Stocks and the US Presidential Election Cycle / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2023
By: Nadeem_Walayat
This is what I concluded a year ago in my September 2021 analysis -
So the election year cycle favours a strong up year as Uncle Biden prints plenty of dollars for everyone to party, which is basically what we are experiencing. Though next year that Democrat performance slumps to just +0.6%! Which suggests this rally is a time to take profits and de risk, because 2022 according to the Presidential cycle could be weak!
So far so good, what next? We'll for 8 straight decades stock market indices such as the Dow and S&P have headed higher after the ,mid-terms with the average gain being 15%.
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Saturday, December 17, 2022
Stock Market Correlating Seasonal Swings Analysis / Stock-Markets / Seasonal Trends
By: Nadeem_Walayat
Not satisfied with seasonal swings I've continued last years near term years seasonal analysis by comparing the year on year change which suggests that the market IS at BOTTOM and thus due a rally into Mid October for a higher low retest into early November, though October should end higher than where it began, where an early November low sets the scene for a powerful rally into at at least Christmas, 2023 bull into September, down into October start.
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Saturday, December 17, 2022
Fiscal and Monetary Policy Shocks / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2022
By: Michael_Pento
The cornerstones in my Inflation/Deflation and Economic Cycle Model are changes made to fiscal and monetary policies. Those are the two most determinant factors in any fiat-currency and debt-based monetary system.
Monetary policies have been ratcheting up tightly since March of this year when the Fed began to move away from its zero-interest rate policy; and Quantitative Tightening ramped up to $95 billion per month in September. Rate hikes will continue throughout the first quarter of next year, just as the extreme pace of balance sheet reduction continues to roll on. The rapid increase in the Fed Funds Rate has depressed the demand for new loans. It has also led to the net percentage of banks tightening lending standards to soar from -32.4% in Q3 of 2021, to a positive 39.1% in Q4 of this year. In a debt-based monetary system, money is created when new loans are produced. To this point, what is happening now is that the amount of fed credit (base money supply) is being destroyed at a record pace, just as banks are slamming the door shut on new loans due to the eroding economy. Hence, the M2 money supply has crashed from a humongous growth rate of 26.7% in February of 2021, to a year-over-year pace that is now shrinking.
Saturday, December 17, 2022
Stock Market Another Fail Attempt / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2023
By: Donald_W_Dony
Following the December 06, 2022, Market Minute titled "Recap of key market structure going into Q1" The benchmark equity index (S&P 500) has made another failed attempt to rise. In mid-December, the index reached the downward sloping trend at 4070 at immediately retreated.
This is the fourth failed attempt to cross the line.
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Friday, December 16, 2022
Stock Market SEASONAL ANALYSIS / Stock-Markets / Seasonal Trends
By: Nadeem_Walayat
The seasonal pattern suggests after a pause in Feb, higher into late April, then correct from early May into late June followed by a volatile summer terminating in a swing low during September that should set the scene for a bull run into the Christmas Holidays with of course intra month volatility during October that resolve to the upside just as the perma-bears are crowing at their loudest that the end is neigh.
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Friday, December 16, 2022
Are Stocks In a New Downtrend? / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2022
By: Monica_Kingsley
Stocks sold off on Thursday, as Central Banks signaled more tightening ahead. Is this a new downtrend?The S&P 500 index lost 2.49% on Thursday, as it extended its short-term downtrend after breaking below the 4,000 level. The market continued to react on Wednesday’s FOMC interest rate hike. Yesterday it went the lowest since November 10.
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Friday, December 16, 2022
Stock Market Indexes Rejected At Resistance Signal Another Correction / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2022
By: Chris_Vermeulen
Stocks struggled with overhead resistance for the past week. While seasonal trends usually favor a year-end rally, this year’s rally may already have finished.
January will be the month to watch. If the market closes with a positive January, we almost always have a strong year for stocks. But if not, we could be in for a doozy of a bear market in the first half of 2023.
This week we had more hawkish Fed talk on Wednesday, suggesting that rates will remain higher for a longer period of time. This week’s economic reports for November showed a drop in retail sales and manufacturing, which raises concern that the economy is weakening.
Falling bond yields are also hinting at a recession in 2023, as are falling commodity prices. Stock indexes look to have had an exhaustion gap higher, followed by heavy institutional selling after the CPI data came out. This further confirms my thinking that money managers are unloading shares into every rally possible before the next major leg down for stocks.
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Thursday, December 15, 2022
Stocks and 10 Year Bond Yields / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2023
By: Nadeem_Walayat
The consensus view is that falling bond yields are good for stocks. However that is not accurate, what stocks like is mildly falling OR rising bond yields. What stocks do not like is what we have witnessed since the start of the year, that is fast moving bond yields as the bond bubble burst in the wake of HIGH INFLATION.
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Thursday, December 15, 2022
Stock Market Tough Inflation Stance Still / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2022
By: Monica_Kingsley
S&P 500 bulls salivated in anticipation of some low CPI recognition, but got none from the Fed. Actually, Powell reiterated the readiness to adjust the restrictive Fed funds rate level higher if justified – and household inflation expectations coupled with the still hot and tight labor market, provide him with enough work so that the expectations don‘t become unanchored. Note that the Fed is taking on a supply issue coupled with excess demand, through demand destruction.
The resulting selloff merely illustrates the degree of liquidity junkie condition markets are in, looking for cheap money. The no surprise 50bp hike yesterday and then 25bp Jan and Mar, would only get Fed funds rate to 5.00% while I see them taking it to 5.50% slowly, and keeping it there. That‘s hardly a pivot or pause – only a decelaration in rate hikes pace while the effects of tightening are gradually playing out, with housing and manufacturing more than teetering already.
Wednesday, December 14, 2022
Stock Margin Debt, Market Breadth and Investor Sentiment Analysis / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2023
By: Nadeem_Walayat
Will there be an Early Fed Pivot?
Well all of these dollars flooding into the US are going to push up asset prices / generate economic activity, so a strong dollar is also acting to mute the Fed's actions and thus Jerome Powell could deliver on what his dot plot implies i.e. that the Fed funds rate rises to 4.75% during Q1 2023 which means continuing dollar strength and pain for most economies and downwards pressure on stock prices. Though stock prices tend to discount the future and so are factoring in the possibility of 4.75% in today's stock prices rather than wait for March 2023, following which the Fed's Dots suggest rates falling to 2.5%. Though the Fed dot plots are virtually always wrong 1 year out.
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Wednesday, December 14, 2022
Banzai CPI and Fed / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2022
By: Monica_Kingsley
S&P 500 celebrated the „only“ 7.1% CPI YoY news, but it was really just the real assets who kept their gains while stocks fell back to where they started from in what appears the correct big picture view of being on the lookout to get short as betting it all on a strong Santa Claus rally has the appeal of picking up pennies in front of a steamroller without more USD retreat juice. I really liked the precious metals performance with miners increasingly confirming the upswing, with both metals doing increasingly well. Let alone copper and oil...
Where does that land us in stocks today? The weak follow through has me on toes, this inability to defend 4,070. I doubt we would overcome my long ago touted 4,130 obstacle later today as Powell dutifully delivers a no surprise statement. Conference is a volatility wildcard.
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Monday, December 12, 2022
Stock Market Volatility (VIX)A Analysis / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2023
By: Nadeem_Walayat
This stocks bear market has been far less volatile than previous bear markets where the often voiced wait for capitulation moment has just flat out failed to materialise i.e. a VIX spike to above 45, instead each new low has failed to even reach 40. Nor is the significance of any decline reflected in the VIX peaks. So whilst many inexperienced investors may cry crash and collapse in fear on every down day, however this stocks bear market has so far been highly orderly, technical even as though a machine intelligence is at work behind the scene milking the market of money like a cash cow. The VIX range of 35 to 20 is very orderly given MSM and blogosfear noise, too calm for my liking i.e. most of the swings have not been volatile enough to capitalise upon.
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Sunday, December 11, 2022
Intel Empire Strikes Back! The IMPOSSIBLE Stocks Bull Market Begins! / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2022
By: Nadeem_Walayat
Dear Reader
Liz Truss the kiss of Death is GONE! She would have gone earlier but had to keep her mouth shut for her the first two weeks of her dire premiership due to the death of the Queen. Rishi is the parties choice and there was speculation that Boris Macbeth Johnson was about to make a come back after flying in from his Caribbean Island to return to power barely weeks after being kicked out of No 10 by his own party. But no more, after reading the writing on the wall Boris has decided his return to power would have blown the Tory party apart, triggering a general election that would have seen the Tories wiped out. Maximum political uncertainty at a time of of MAXIMUM economic and market distress with Inflation soaring into the stratosphere sending ALL nations teetering on the brink of collapse and NOT just the UK. ALL are suffering the consequences of the US sucking the world dry of Dollars like Sagittarius A* stripping orbiting stars of their economic mass which as I stated in my previous article could usher in an abrupt halt to the Fed's taken for granted rate hike cycle to 5%, a pivot of sorts so as to avoid a headlong plunge into Financial Crisis 2.0, that's if Fed members have any sense between their ears.
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Sunday, December 11, 2022
Dow Stock Market Annual Percent Change Analysis / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2023
By: Nadeem_Walayat
In my extensive analysis of September 2021 this indicator warned to expect the Dow to drop to 28k, the low to date has been 28.7k! For the bull market proper to resume this indicator needs trade above the thick black line, until then the market remains in no mans land of trading within range with the risks of worse to come. Most probable is the market trades in a range i.e. to trade above the blue dotted line, until the market has worked through it's bear phase. At this point I am discounting a re-run of 2008, as so far the indicator is showing a tendency to remain above the grey line, however this also implies that the bull market proper could be as much as a year away! In terms of price, the Dow is not going to see a new all time high anytime soon, probably beyond the end of 2023.
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Sunday, December 11, 2022
Portfolio Convenctial Wisdom 60% stocks, 40% bonds? Ha! / Stock-Markets / Investing 2022
By: EWI
In his February 2022 book, Last Chance to Conquer the Crash, Robert Prechter said:
Countless advisors have counseled "diversification," a "balanced portfolio" and other end-all solutions to the problem of allocating your investments. These approaches are delusional. ... No investment strategy will provide stability forever.
That certainly has applied to the classic 60% stocks / 40% bonds portfolio this year.
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Thursday, December 08, 2022
How Bear Markets DIE - Stock Market Technical Trend Analysis / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2023
By: Nadeem_Walayat
Dow Short-term Trend Analysis
The Dow is bouncing off a new bear market low of 28,700 having already broken above the preceding low of 29.7k that targets resistance at 31k. However given the degree of momentum behind this rally the Dow could easily continue climbing to target 32k which would represent a sizeable 12% advance in what I would consider as being a sub-swing i.e. not the whole move which implies that this rally that apparently is being dismissed by most as bear market rally could eventually retrace the whole disown move from the 34k high. But for now the Dow 1st targets 31k and then 32k before it is likely to correct towards 30.5k before RESUMING it's bull run.
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Wednesday, December 07, 2022
S&P 500 Sold Off Again - Is This Still Just a Correction? / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2022
By: Paul_Rejczak
Stock prices suffered another sharp decline yesterday – is this a change of trend?The S&P 500 index lost 1.44% on Tuesday, as the broad stock market continued its Monday’s 1.8% sell-off. It reacted to Monday’s better-than-expected ISM Services PMI release. On Thursday the S&P 500 reached new local high of 4,100.51, and on yesterday it went closer to the 3,900 level.
This morning the S&P 500 is expected to open 0.3% lower after an overnight decline of more than 1%. We may see a short-term rebound following the recent declines. It still looks like a consolidation within an uptrend. However, the index broke below its two-month-long upward trend line yesterday, as we can see on the daily chart:
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Tuesday, December 06, 2022
Stock Market Investor Sentiment / Stock-Markets / Stock Market Sentiment
By: Nadeem_Walayat
Apparently today's stock market sentiment is the most bearish since the March 2009 low! Which implies the end of the bear market is imminent. However there could be a double dip lower low.
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Tuesday, December 06, 2022
Stock Market Breadth / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2022
By: Nadeem_Walayat
Cumulative NYSE Advancing / Declining issues proved a useful early warning indicator going into the stock market top, since which has closely tracked the markets decline so is not showing any obvious positive nor negative deviation, a case of continuing to keep ones eye on it for a similar cues.
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Tuesday, December 06, 2022
Stock Market Sentiment Speaks: The Coming Week Will Tell Us How We Get To 4300SPX / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2022
By: Avi_Gilburt
Early on in the week, the US markets declined and the supposed reason for such decline was due to the Covid lockdowns and mass protests of such in China. Yet, the Chinese markets surged strongly at the same time. And, this had many people scratching their heads.
Furthermore, right before we began the mid-week surge towards our next higher target/resistance, Powell gave a wonderful speech during which is he basically did not say anything different than what the market already knew. Yet, of course, pundits were quick to point to the speech as the reason we rallied to the next resistance/target.
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Saturday, December 03, 2022
Stock Market and Margin Debt Analysis / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2023
By: Nadeem_Walayat
Margin debt tends to peak and fall long before the stock market turns lower as basically speculators start to feel the pain of holding losing positions and thus cut back on their bets. Either that or are forced to close their losing trades due to failure to meet margin calls, in which respect this indicator proved very useful in flagging the prospects for a bear market long before it materialised as stock prices trended higher on petrol fumes as the fuel tank was empty.
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Thursday, December 01, 2022
US Recession 2023 Already Happened in 2022! Stealth Stocks Bull Market / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2022
By: Nadeem_Walayat
Dear Reader
FED Balance Sheet
Not to forget the inflation mega-trend courtesy of rampant central bank money printing to monetize government debt coupled with the fake inflation indices where up until recently the Fed had succeeded in hoodwinking the masses that US inflation was just 1%. Instead at that time I warned it was more like 6%! Now it's more like 14%. Anyway the money printing binge now totals $8.8 trillion, up from $4 trillion at the start of 2020 and down from a a peak of $9.62 trillion in the so called Taper. We saw how the taper of 2019 went which at the time I warned would eventually resolve in the Fed Balance sheet DOUBLING. of course I was not expecting it to happen the very NEXT YEAR in 2020!
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Tuesday, November 29, 2022
Stock Market Valuation Reset and Future EPS / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2022
By: Nadeem_Walayat
Stock markets trend between a state of over valuation and under valuation in earnings terms, hence my warnings to expect a valuation reset during most of the second half of 2021 which means regardless of what happens to the economy THIS bear market WAS inevitable! And it HAS come to PASS to great extent where many of the most over valued stocks have HALVED in price and not just the usual suspects but the likes of AMD and TSMC! AMAZON! And so on.
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Sunday, November 27, 2022
After This Holiday Stock Market Rally, You Better Know When To Walk Away / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2022
By: Chris_Vermeulen
This week’s investor insight will make you think twice about the current stock and bond rally as we head into the end of the year.
We get a lot of questions about if the stock market has bottomed or if it is headed lower and how they can take advantage of the next Major market move. Over the next 6 to 12 months, I expect the market to have violent price swings that will either make or break your financial future. So let me show a handful of charts and show what I expect to unfold.
Let’s dive in.
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Saturday, November 26, 2022
Stock Market Winning the Day, Nibbling at 4040 / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2022
By: Monica_Kingsley
S&P 500 closed on a fine note, and keeps nibbing at 4,040 – the great resistance that will ultimately fall (likely early next week). Running the stops before that, but key sectoral performance indicates that it would be only weak hand that would be shaken out.
If the sellers had any chance to push through, it was this week – and the final opportunity to do so this year, is to evaporate once the second week of Dec gets out of the way. The outside markets aren‘t hinting at much success for the bears – bonds remain risk-on, USD not throwing a spanner in the works… 10y over 2y yield relenting together with 3m yield going down, that would be most constructive for the bulls – still absent for now, and that‘s why this Q4 rally will fail in Q1 2023.
Opening today‘s article for everyone after Thanksgiving – thank you all for the honor of serving you!
Thursday, November 24, 2022
FTX, The Rise and Fall of a Crypto Ponzi Scheme / Stock-Markets / Scams
By: MoneyMetals
By now, you have heard about the FTX exchange bankruptcy. But you may be justifiably desensitized. Desensitized because the frequency of crypto disasters is at least yearly.
This FTX crypto scandal is a next-level scandal reading like an over-the-top Hollywood film, a bizarre crypto con story ending badly.
FTX frontman Sam Bankman-Fried was in his twenties when he became a billionaire last year.
His daily routine is highly dysfunctional, and his personality is profoundly impaired. This contrasts with most con men who are charming and charismatic.
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Tuesday, November 22, 2022
'No Mas' to Hawkish Fed Says Precious Metals Expert / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2022
By: The_Gold_Report
In light of the controversy with FTX Corp., expert Michael Ballanger shares his opinion on current news coverage and the state of the gold market and U.S. dollar to tell you his view on the precious metals and whether he believes we are headed toward a bear market rally.
A tad over forty-two years ago, an absolute freak of a boxer named Roberto Duran lost a rematch with another fine battler named Sugar Ray Leonard when he uttered the two words “No más” and ended the bout.
As disappointed as I was to watch one of my favorite boxers (“scrapper” would be a better term) throw in the towel, I was actually appalled at the physical condition of the “Manos de Piedra” (Hands of Stone) Duran, who appeared to have ended his partying off the first bout about three days earlier.
However, the words ending the match were absolutely appropriate, and they are reminiscent of my current stance toward all this controversy and outrage surrounding FTX Corp., which is dominating the digital airwaves while swiftly becoming a major vote-getting platform for politicians. Surprise, surprise .
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Tuesday, November 22, 2022
Stock Market Ready to Spring / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2022
By: Monica_Kingsley
S&P 500 refused the intraday decline – value held up very finely. 2-year yield is on guard, but stocks are refusing to budge. Not even the sharp daily dollar upswing had much of an effect – what it did to real assets, is being (gradually) reversed, and in the case of oil, the unsubstantiated rumor was swiftly dealt with already yesterday. So much for oil supply, after $80, there comes $82.50. The same move is going to be be mirrored in silver and copper, confirmed then by gold and miners.
Today‘s key level to overcome and not see jeopardized, is 3,965 – the logical clues serving so well in determining the Nov CPI buying spree, are in place once again, favoring a bullish resolution beyond the sensitivity shown to rising dollar yesterday and declining dollar today. Stocks look willing to run (4,010s getting in sights)and this would be the ideal confirmation. Fundamentally for the 24+ hours ahead, odds are high that the Fed and manufacturing PPI would resolve in the hours ahead to the upside as well.
Monday, November 21, 2022
Economic Challenges face the Stocks Bull Market / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2022
By: Donald_W_Dony
One of the biggest challenges that face the continuation of the 14-year economic expansion is inflation. Years of near-zero interest rates, an accommodating Fed, and low unemployment have resulted in the highest inflation rate in 40 years.
To counteract this rapid rise in inflation, the FOMC started increasing the Fed Funds Rate in May. First with small increments and then with four jumbo increases of 75 bps.
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Sunday, November 20, 2022
Stock Market Investors Aren’t Buying the Fed’s Hawkish Posturing / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2022
By: MoneyMetals
As warning signs for the economy mount, investors are cheering for more bad news. That's because they expect economic weakness will force the Federal Reserve to stop raising interest rates and eventually re-embrace loose monetary policy.One reliable indicator over the years of an upcoming recession is an inverted yield curve. An inversion occurs when short-term interest rates rise above long-term rates.
Typically, a 3-month Treasury bill or 2-year note will yield less than a 10-year note or 30-year bond. Shorter-duration debt instruments entail less risk and therefore deliver less reward under normal circumstances. But over the past four months, short-term IOUs have begun to yield more than longer-term paper.
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Friday, November 18, 2022
Banks are becoming more cautious about lending / Stock-Markets / Financial Crisis 2022
By: EWI
And the implications are bigger than just getting a loan
Robert Prechter's Last Chance to Conquer the Crash discusses the psychological aspect of a deflation:
When the trend of social mood changes from optimism to pessimism, creditors, debtors, investors, producers and consumers all change their primary orientation from expansion to conservation. As creditors become more conservative, they slow their lending.
Evidence of that developing financially conservative mindset is seen in this chart from the just-published November Global Market Perspective, a monthly Elliott Wave International publication which covers 50-plus worldwide financial markets (commentary below):
Friday, November 18, 2022
Feeding the Quantum AI Tech Stocks Bear / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2022
By: Nadeem_Walayat
For some reason most folk when looking at the charts focus on the high vs the low as if investors only buy and sell at the exact highs and lows, well maybe the mania herd bought near the highs last year to sell near the lows this year but most intelligent investors don't invest that way i.e. during the second half of last year, I sold down 80% of my AI tech stocks portfolio in advance of this bear market, including warning virtually within a few percent of the high to get ready for a bear market during 2022 and maybe even worse a crash! That was on the 5th of December 2021!
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Tuesday, November 15, 2022
S&P 500 Reached 4,000 – Is Stocks Bear Market Over? / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2022
By: Paul_Rejczak
Stock prices extended their advance on Friday, as the S&P 500 index reached the 4,000 level. We may see a profit-taking action, however, bulls are still in charge.The S&P 500 index gained 0.92% on Friday following its Thursday’s rally of 5.5%. The market remained bullish after the Thursday’s Consumer Price Index release and the broad stock market’s gauge went the highest since September 13. On Friday, the daily high was at 4,001.48.
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Thursday, November 10, 2022
Stock Market Discounting Events Big Picture - FEEDING THE BEAST! / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2022
By: Nadeem_Walayat
Dear Reader
This is the first excerpt from my extensive analysis that concludes in a detailed trend forecast right into the end of 2023, well beyond the scope of what I had originally planned to be a 1 year trend forecast. Yes I posted part 2 before part 1 so that my Patrons gained immediate access to my trend forecast rather than have to wait a few days for that which they ultimately seek. This is the problem with mega-pieces of analysis in the time needed to proof read, error correct and edit so that hopefully the article makes sense to others, but still mistakes can happen such as the recent Bull Trap / Bear Trap saga illustrated. So multiple time consuming proof readings are necessary so as to whittle down the number of errors and to ensure the text matches what I meant for it to say.
And before we get started, the world took another baby step towards Czar Putin sending nukes flying as the Ukrainians apparently fired a missile at the bridge that they don't have access to,That's if the Russian tactical nukes actually work given how rubbish the Russian Army has turned out to be, as the war that was supposed be over within days of invasion instead drags on building the pressure keeps on Putin as his little fat fingers inch closer towards pressing the nuclear button.
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Thursday, November 10, 2022
Stock Market Tight CPI Race / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2022
By: Monica_Kingsley
S&P 500 invalidated the key bull flag thesis laid out in yesterday‘s chart section, and both 3,815 and low 3,770s supports gave way. I think markets are positioning for too hot CPI beating expectations, in what results in a boat inordinately tilted the risk-off way, positioned for still accelerating inflation beyond the consensus 7.9% YoY. True, I‘m looking for a sticky figure likewise, but would be happy about 8.1% that still has the potential to generate some relief for risk-on assets.
In such a tight trading range pre-CPI, it‘s key to think in terms of upside and downside risks with their probabilities and advance clues – those to the upside on the CPI release prevail, no matter that I‘m not wildly optimistic about Nov, and I refuse the notion of Fed pivot or even pause as being anyhow near, not even just a couple of months away, no. This is what it means for the short-term S&P 500 path. Crucially, I‘m looking for a bright Dec, and not a great Nov monthly candle. As for today, these bullish cues simply can‘t be ignored in delivering a surprise to the sellers.
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Wednesday, November 09, 2022
Have We Begun A 20-Year Stocks Bear Market Already? / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2022
By: Avi_Gilburt
Every week that I publish an article on the stock market, I attempt to show you some very glaring issues as to how the market presented to you by analysts and news reporters alike. Most of them will look at the market action, review the news, and then attribute a move in the market based upon a recent news event or economic report. And, if you read it carefully, some of it does not even make sense. Let me show you an example that I read this past week:
"Hong Kong stocks up 3% in Asia session as private survey shows China's factory activity contracted" – CNBC (The headline was changed by CNBC since originally published)
Read that very carefully. Then ask yourself if a contraction in factory activity is a “bullish” indication? Then it must lead you to the question as to how can the market rally in the face of such bearish news? Well, obviously, the market does not really care, does it?
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Tuesday, November 08, 2022
What the US Presidential Election Cycle Predicts for the Stock Market 2023 / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2022
By: Nadeem_Walayat
There's a s a 100% probability that stocks will be higher than where they end in October. Whilst the average gain is 15%, the spread tends to be quite large in the range of +10% to +15% which therefore suggests that 2023 will be an up year for stocks. In fact we could see a powerful pre-emptive rally ahead of the Mid-terms from the current state of extreme pessimism. as illustrated by the MACD and sentiment indicator,
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Tuesday, November 08, 2022
What the US Presidential Cycle Predicts for the Stock Market Into 2024 / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2022
By: Nadeem_Walayat
This is what I concluded a year ago in my September 2021 (Stock Market FOMO Hits September Brick Wall - Dow Trend Forecast Sept 2021 to May 2022) analysis -
So the election year cycle favours a strong up year as Uncle Biden prints plenty of dollars for everyone to party, which is basically what we are experiencing. Though next year that Democrat performance slumps to just +0.6%! Which suggests this rally is a time to take profits and de risk, because 2022 according to the Presidential cycle could be weak!
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Monday, November 07, 2022
Stock Market Bullish Catalyst / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2022
By: Monica_Kingsley
S&P 500 volatile session Friday ended on a bright note, but the short-term clouds aren‘t over till Treasury yields stabilize. Actually given the heavy dollar downswing, stocks could have done a lot better – and I mean especially those multinationals with a high ratio of foreign earnings. Tech though merely complied with the almost obligatory upswing – it‘s the formerly leading $FAANG stocks that are still most vulnerable, and especially so when the year end tax loss selling kicks in in the final two weeks of December. An underperformer, simply put.
For now, markets were lifted by the ongoing speculation about possible China‘s zero covid policies easing, and that concerns especially those related stocks such as BABA or real assets. If I were to pick a single best thing to have happened Friday, it would be the rise in yield spreads on a reasonably positive advance-decline line move.
Now, let‘s look at the headline reversal – once the existing China policies were confirmed to be maintained, risk-off was expected to raise its head again, yet didn‘t get too far. Already before the open, we‘re trading above my 3,780s level marking the daily bias as either bullish above, or bearish (consolidation only unless confirmed by outside markets) below. Cryptos are likely to confirm limited downside potential today if you look at Bitcoin at $20,700 currently (lower knot in the making).
Thursday, November 03, 2022
Stocks and Inverted Yield Curve / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2022
By: Nadeem_Walayat
The yield curve has inverted which initially saw the stock market trade to a new bear market low following which entered into a powerful bull run, as has happened virtually every time that the yield curve has inverted i.e. initial stock market dips followed by a bull run that typically extends to over a year which the current price action looks set to replicate despite the recent double dip.
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Monday, October 31, 2022
US Economy and Stock Market Addicted to Deficit Spending / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2022
By: Nadeem_Walayat
What to know what tends to drive the stock market into the stratosphere? US Deficit Spending! (actually twin deficits including Trade).
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Monday, October 31, 2022
Sentiment Speaks: Amazon Killed The Stock Market On Friday / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2022
By: Avi_Gilburt
It really is entertaining watching people. Whether I am sitting outside in a public area and "people-watching" with my wife, whether I watch how people react to the market in the articles on Seeking Alpha (and that includes the writers and commenters), or whether I watch how people react even within the virtual walls of my own services, people are very interesting and their emotional responses are even more so.
We had a very interesting week this past week. And, it again outlined for me that people simply cannot overcome their emotions, especially when it comes to the stock market. So many of you are following the CPI, unemployment, GDP, etc. Yet, none of that has helped you on this rally. If anything, it has made you miss this 12% rally over the last two weeks. And, when the Amazon earnings came out, many of you were sure the market would surely drop.
Yet, as the market was developing a near term topping structure on Wednesday and Thursday, my primary analysis to the members of ElliottWaveTrader was suggesting the strong potential for a pullback before we continued higher to the 3900+ region, which was my next target for the SPX.
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Sunday, October 30, 2022
Can the Stock Market Hold Lows Despite Spiking Yields and Dollar Panic Buying? / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2022
By: Nadeem_Walayat
Dear Reader
To break the June Low or not to break the June low, that is the question?
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Wednesday, October 26, 2022
Europe's Energy Sector: "The Lehman Moment Just Arrived" / Stock-Markets / Financial Crisis 2022
By: EWI
This company's stock price "broke a support shelf that dates back 14 years"
Back in October 2021, two months before Germany's DAX hit an all-time high, our Global Market Perspective showed a big jump in references to "Lehman" in Bloomberg News.
Of course, the use of "Lehman" in a news article has become synonymous with the collapse of the then financial giant during the depths of the 2007-2009 financial crisis.
The October 2021 Global Market Perspective, an Elliott Wave International monthly publication which covers 50-plus worldwide financial markets, said:
The Lehman moment will come later, after investor optimism has receded and stock prices are well off their highs.
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Tuesday, October 25, 2022
Inflation and Interest rates Implications for the Stock Market / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2022
By: Nadeem_Walayat
So inflation is not going significantly lower anytime soon, interest rates are still trending higher which does not bode well for the outlook for stocks. And then on top of that we have a weakening economy, STAGFLATION! Definitely not a time for investors to contemplate gambling on no earnings, even high multiples growth stocks. For the indices, it means downwards price pressure and then followed by a trading range..
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Tuesday, October 25, 2022
Fate of Stock Market Q4 Rally / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2022
By: Sumeet_Manhas
S&P 500 turnaround was driven by the WSJ article that painted 75bp Nov and 50bp Dec hikes as some kind of a pivot, when it‘s not even a pause. While I had been for weeks of the opinion that this is the most likely route they‘ll take, markets have started favoring 75bp in Dec, and its possibility has been on Friday dialed back to 50% only. That‘s hardly a pause or pivot to me, but the speculation was enough to carry risk-on sentiment reliably into the close.
What I am questioning is whether sustainable bottoms can be made on such a news – even sustainable only in terms of giving rise to a reliable Q4 rally. Not when long-dated Treasuries still haven‘t found a bottom as foreigners are forced to sell in dramatic reversion of seemingly forever trade surpluses and high energy prices, which in case of natural gas can‘t be as regionally comparable as in oil. Together with the Fed balance sheet shrinking, this has implications for the debt markets, which I discussed both in mid Sep and in the above linked article.
The turn in junk bonds is fine for the bulls, but similarly to the S&P 500, it‘s still characterized by a pattern of lower highs after the summer rally fizzled out. It‘s only the Russell 2000 which has managed to keep above the Jun lows – and that confirms the rightful conclusion that the U.S. are best positioned at the moment still to weather the storm. What has become concerning on Friday though, is the dollar‘s daily session – not even sharply higher yields have worked to keep it afloat.
Sunday, October 23, 2022
Stock Market Choppy But Bearish / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2022
By: Monica_Kingsley
S&P 500 turned once again decisively lower yesterday, and the slow grind to the upcoming local bottom continues on rising volume – and that‘s good. Crucially, bonds continued supporting the move – as the key trio on my watch (those always shown in bond charts), reversed intraday. Higher yields are generally supportive of the dollar, and put pressure especially on precious metals, no surprises here (been issuing mostly bearish daily outlooks in PMs for months already), with oil remaining relatively best insulated among commodities.
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Sunday, October 23, 2022
The Fed is forced to pay you to Stay Safe / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2022
By: Gary_Tanashian
As the Fed fights the last war (on inflation) the result is a rare thing; a bear market haven called cash, paying increasing income
Safety Vehicles
Gold: For long-term financial security. Real gold, not ETFs, not allocated gold trusts that you can never actually possess (if you, like me, are not spectacularly wealthy) and certainly not gold mining equities.* Just gold. It’s so simple as to be overlooked by all too many, probably because it pays no income and just sits there over decades holding value.
Cash: Unlike other bear markets in equities over the last few decades when the Fed throttled savers with the likes of Zero Interest Rate Policy (ZIRP) at the first signs of trouble for asset owners, today’s Fed is commanded to clean up the mess it was primary in making during the last asset market bailout (H1, 2020), in a battle against inflation’s lagging indicators (e.g. CPI) and headlines (picture the public manning its pitchforks and torches) as cash pays increasingly higher income.
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Saturday, October 22, 2022
US Economy and Stock Market Addicted to Deficit Spending / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2022
By: Nadeem_Walayat
What to know what tends to drive the stock market into the stratosphere? US Deficit Spending! (actually twin deficits including Trade).
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Saturday, October 22, 2022
Here's Why This Stocks Bear Market is a "Global Story" / Stock-Markets / Stocks Bear Market
By: EWI
"The decline started in emerging market stocks way back in February 2021"
A widely accepted measure of a bear market is a drop of 20% or more in a major index from an all-time high.
By that measure, both the S&P 500 index and the Dow Industrials have entered bear market territory since their January peaks.
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Saturday, October 22, 2022
4 Best Investment Plans for Medium Term / Stock-Markets / Investing 2022
By: Mark_Adan
Medium-term goals can be a great motivator. They can give you something to focus on in the present moment and help you to stay on track. However, it is important to choose an investment option that will not be too volatile. This way, you can be sure that your money will be there when you need it. Some of the most common medium-term goals include saving for your wedding or down payment of a house. If you're wondering what the best investment options are that will help you achieve your medium-term goals, this list should help. Find the best trading app UK here.
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Friday, October 21, 2022
Quantum AI Tech Stocks Portfolio / Stock-Markets / Investing 2022
By: Nadeem_Walayat
Which brings us to this BEAR market where my strategy has been NOT to seek to buy the bottom because we will only ever see the bottom in hindsight, instead my strategy has been to buy deep discounts in target stocks which has transformed my portfolio from this in January 2022 -
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Thursday, October 20, 2022
Stock Markets WORST Month of the Year Could Deliver a Buying Opportunity / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2022
By: Nadeem_Walayat
We have a Dogs dinner of a Tory government, waste of space Quasi Modo has gone, next will be Liz Trustless what a pair of idiots, Hunt as Chancellor is only good for reading scripts he gets given! Come on Boris come back, all is forgiven, what was the worst under Johnson? Parties, the media wasted thousands of hours of air time on parties! MSM Is an irrelevance, dumb, blind, completely clueless after all they are Journalists NOT analysts, they don't have a clue! Quasi has gone, so will Trussless and it could even be as soon as today! Definitely before the end of October, she will be GONE! GOOD RIDDANCE to Britain's worst Prime Minister ever! And paving the way for Britain's first brown Prime Minister!
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Tuesday, October 18, 2022
Keep Calm and Carry on Buying Quantum AI Tech Stocks / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2022
By: Nadeem_Walayat
I must be a sucker for punishment to try and conclude my detailed 1+ year trend forecast at a time of maximum market uncertainty where major nations such as the UK are literally finding themselves on the brink of financial collapse! No really the UK financial system was a hairs breadth away from collapsing as it's pension funds that had GAMBLED ON INTEREST RATE DERIVATES with US rate hikes triggering a COLLAPSE in UK Bonds as Pension funds were forced to sell their most liquid assets, and the more UK bonds fell the more the pension funds were being forced to sell so as to meet MARGIN CALLS on their interest rate bets, which in effect was Britain's Lehman's moment prompting the Bank of England to BAIL THEM OUT by announcing that they would buy an UNLIIMITED amount of UK bonds so as to bring yields back down and thus push the capital value of Pension Funds UP so as to halt the forced selling that would have resulted in the Pensions funds defaulting and making the counterparty to their bets BANKRUPT! Yes you guessed it the BANKS BANKRUPT AGAIN! WALL STREET, LOMBARD STREET, CANARY WHARF, BERLIN! BANKRUPT! This is why whenever a patron mentions that the banks are cheap I tend to reply that you do know what they have gambled on until they explode!
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Sunday, October 16, 2022
Why Most Stocks May Go Nowhere for the Next 10 Years! / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2022
By: Nadeem_Walayat
Here's why PE ratio's matter as the following chart shows the return 10 years forward from the starting average PE i.e if the stock market is trading on an average PE of 27 than can basically be expected to go nowhere for the next 10 years. Whilst the lower the PE the higher the expected return (on average), where the safe zone for investing is at a starting PE of between 10 and 20. Note graphs is as of September 2021, see below for updated ratios.
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Sunday, October 16, 2022
Post-bubble Economic Contraction / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2022
By: Gary_Tanashian
“Post-bubble contraction” (PBC) as coined by Bob Hoye, may finally be at hand
Bob Hoye has been talking about a coming post-bubble contraction (PBC) for many years, in my experience. Now after many false starts, it may finally be in play on the wider macro picture. Past contractions (e.g. 2008 and 2020) have proven to be little more than precursors, triggers to new asset bubble phases because the Fed’s main macro manipulation tool, bonds, were in a multi-decade long trend of disinflationary signaling.
To this point with respect to the PBC, timing has been an issue. This is not a critique of Hoye, a fine financial historian and macro fundamental analyst. In fact, it is the opposite. It is from him that I learned the proper fundamentals for gold and especially the gold mining industry. But perfectly good deflationary meltdowns (of previous inflationary operations) were foiled in both 2008 and 2020.
Why were they foiled so effectively? Because the Federal Reserve and global central banks have for decades had a lenient bond market to fall back on (the fabled ‘bond vigilantes of yore apparently rode into a small town, hit the saloon and never again emerged… until 2022, that is). I have for many years now used the 30-year yield ‘Continuum’ (monthly 30yr yield chart, below) as a nice visual to the mechanics of the Fed’s macro-manipulative wheel house, the US Treasury bond market.
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Saturday, October 15, 2022
Feeding the Stocks Bear Market Beast / Stock-Markets / Investing 2022
By: Nadeem_Walayat
For some reason most folk when looking at the charts focus on the high vs the low as if investors only buy and sell at the exact highs and lows, well maybe the mania herd bought near the highs last year to sell near the lows this year but most intelligent investors don't invest that way i.e. during the second half of last year, I sold down 80% of my AI tech stocks portfolio in advance of this bear market, including warning virtually within a few percent of the high to get ready for a bear market during 2022 and maybe even worse a crash! That was on the 5th of December 2021!
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Saturday, October 15, 2022
New Banking Crisis Looms as Fears of “Lehman Moment” Rise / Stock-Markets / Financial Crisis 2022
By: MoneyMetals
As new inflation data pushes the Fed toward continuing with rate hikes, precious metals markets are struggling to make headway.
On Thursday, the government released Consumer Price Index data for September. The so-called core CPI, which excludes food and energy, increased 6.6% from a year ago. That’s the highest core inflation reading since 1982.
Although prices at the pump have eased since the summer peak, other inflation components continue to rise. Housing, food, and medical care are currently among the biggest contributors to rising consumer prices.
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Wednesday, October 12, 2022
Why Most Stocks May Go Nowhere for the Next 10 Years! / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2022
By: Nadeem_Walayat
Here's why PE ratio's matter as the following chart shows the return 10 years forward from the starting average PE i.e if the stock market is trading on an average PE of 27 than can basically be expected to go nowhere for the next 10 years. Whilst the lower the PE the higher the expected return (on average), where the safe zone for investing is at a starting PE of between 10 and 20. Note graphs is as of September 2021, see below for updated ratios.
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Monday, October 10, 2022
Stock Market Trend Current State of Play / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2022
By: Nadeem_Walayat
S&P closed at 3680. trading to a low of 3633, June's low is 3622, so the 50% retracement studies conclusion so far remains in tact which implies that this decline is a bear trap, to be clear a trap for the bears all betting on a collapse into the abyss of 3,200 and below, fantasy numbers such as 3000 area being bandied around, and apparently Monday 26th is the end of the SHIEMITA when a big CRASH is due!, Note I don't for a minute take this nonsense seriously, anyway today's the last day of the SHEIMTA that was ironically brought to my attention in June near the bear market lows when there were shrill cries of SELL EVERYTHING NOW! In which case the Shemita folk are looking to break even today (in US dollars). To be clear SHIMTA is BS, but like all BS's there will be coincidences which with the benefit of hindsight will be twisted and turned into support of BS as will probably happen to this SHEIMITA where what it originally implied will be subverted with the benefit of hindsight, that's the case with religious mumbo jumbo, people actually do want to believe in the super natural! That ancient religious texts somehow have magic powers to predict what the stock market will do in 2022 which can only happen via a self fulfilling prophecy, i.e. if enough believe in it and act on it then yes it sort of comes true, which in fact is the basis of Technical Analysis, traders and algo's lock step acting on wiggly lines on the charts. A quick google shows that most of the major market CRASH events happened AFTER SHEMITA but for some reason SHEMITA claims jurisdiction over them as well i.e. 1987 Crash, 9-11 attack and so on,
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Thursday, October 06, 2022
Jerome Powell's TRANSITORY DIP in INFLATION, AI and High Risk Stocks Updated Buying Levels / Stock-Markets / Investing 2022
By: Nadeem_Walayat
INFLATION! INFLATION! INFLATION!
The big questions for the US and how our US tech stocks will fair over the coming year are -
1. Does the Federal Reserve finally understand just how dangerous inflation actually is ?
2. If it does then how is it going to subvert the inflationary policies of the White house, does not matter which clown is in office i.e. democrat or republican, BOTH have tendencies towards rampant money printing given the 4 year election cycle.
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Sunday, October 02, 2022
Answering the Question - Has the Stocks Bear Market Bottomed? Apple Nut About Crack? / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2022
By: Nadeem_Walayat
Dear Reader
Has the BEAR market Bottomed? That is the question I am most often asked for the duration of this bear market, where my earlier responses were that my focus was on accumulating target stocks as they DEVIIATE FROM THEIR HIGHS TO NEW LOWS, so where the indices actually bottom is largely irrelevant. Still this is the most asked question so following the June bottom my stance changed to the bottom is probably in for most target stocks, though I cannot say the same for the indices. However in the run up to 4180 I had penciled in a subsequent bear swing target of between 3720 to 3920 for a probable higher low, which means that June was probably the bottom. This weeks price action further strongly suggests that the BOTTOM IS IN as I voiced in the comments section of my last article where for me the key indication was the breakout above 4200, it was not an intraday move or a few shallow spikes above 4200, Instead the S&P rocketed higher by over 110 points in a 3 day run from 4200 to 4317 that acted as a strong indicator that 3637 was THE BOTTOM, and thus all we can now seek is a correction of a fraction of the rally off the bottom for a 2nd bite at the AI stocks investing cherries.
However, the bottom is in is also based on my past studies that suggest a 50% reversal from the bear market lows usually act as a strong indication of the bottom being in which is the focus of this analysis that acts as a further excerpt from my forthcoming in-depth analysis that I have hit the pause button on for 1 week as I venture out of my castle for the first time in 6 months to travel to Wales for some sun, sea and sand and perhaps see if I can find Excalibur in one of it's many lakes that follows the slow recovery form my March ruptured Achilles tendon injury that revealed the extent to which the NHS is a JOKE Health Service when one actually has the misfortune to use it.
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Saturday, October 01, 2022
Fed QT2 Imperils Stock Markets / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2022
By: Zeal_LLC
The Fed’s second quantitative-tightening campaign already ramped up to full-speed in September, with dire market implications. The unprecedented scale of QT2’s monetary destruction dwarfs QT1’s, which crushed stock markets. With inflation raging out of control because of the Fed’s extreme quantitative-easing money printing, it has no choice but to run aggressive QT even though that imperils overvalued stocks.
Like many serious economic problems today, the Fed’s intractable money-supply-inflation mess was born in March 2020’s pandemic-lockdown stock panic. In just over a single month, the flagship S&P 500 stock index plummeted an apocalyptic 33.9%! Traders were terrified government-imposed lockdowns to fight the new COVID-19 virus would force a severe recession or full-blown depression, so they ran for the hills.
Fed officials joined in that panicking, deeply worried that the negative wealth effect from cratering stocks would crush consumer spending and thus the US economy. So the Federal Open Market Committee rushed to intervene, making two emergency inter-meeting federal-funds-rate cuts of 50 basis points and 100bp! But with the latter slamming the FFR back down to zero, the Fed was out of rate-cut ammunition.
So these elite central bankers making monetary policy decided to radically expand their already-underway fourth QE campaign. QE4 had been born about five months earlier in mid-October 2019, adding $275b to the Fed’s balance sheet in that span. At that same Sunday-evening meeting where the FOMC slashed its FFR 100bp, it pledged to monetize “at least” $500b in US Treasuries and $200b in mortgage-backed bonds.
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Wednesday, September 28, 2022
STOCKS BEAR MARKET DISCOUNTING EVENT BIG PICTURE / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2022
By: Nadeem_Walayat
As my recent excerpt from my forthcoming mega-piece on the stock market illustrated, there is a 80% probability that the bear market has bottomed and so far it has not done anything to negate this probability. Therefore it looks like we are coming out of our 6th MAJOR discounting event since the BIG Financial Armageddon BAD BEAR MARKET bottomed in March 2009.
Zoom out of hourly and daily charts and see the true magnitude of the 2022 bear market that has so many worried of much worse to come.MSM coverage of the financial markets is akin to a fly buzzing around that needs swatting!
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Wednesday, September 28, 2022
How to Profit During a Bear Market - Portfolio Account / Stock-Markets / Investing 2022
By: Nadeem_Walayat
Back in early April I opened an IKBR ISA with £20k (ISA limit) that I proceeded to quickly populate with target stocks as they traded down to new bear market lows. ISA's limit what one can do, i.e. NO SHORTING, Options and no access to most ETF's due to HMRC rules, another restriction is one cannot hold US Dollars, every buy and sell has to be converted into and out of US dollars, so ISA's are definitely geared towards longer term investors. Anyway the IKBR ISA acts as a good real world proxy for how my public portfolio should perform if one followed my analysis, where the primary goal is to accumulate during this temporary bear market to capitalise on during the subsequent bull market, my expectations from the outset were that there WILL BE DRAWDOWNS because stock prices FALL during bear markets so as to result in the buying opportunities, stocks getting cheaper during a bear market is a good thing! Cheaper in terms of their valuations for if a stock price falls and the stock gets more expensive in valuation terms then that is NOT a good thing!
Current state of the IKBR ISA is up 12% since inception (Early April 2022) through following my analysis of buying target stocks when they trade down to NEW LOWS and then trimming lightly on the subsequent rallies, cash now comprises about 33% of this portfolio up from about 3% near the lows, as IKBR does not charge a rip off f/x fee as many brokers, for comparison FreeTrade charges 0.45%, AJ Bell 1% and Interactive Investor charge 1.5%, what are they smoking! AJ Bell recently cut their f/x fee to 0.75% but their platform is a pain in the butt to use for US stocks i.e. NO LIMIT ORDERS!
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Monday, September 26, 2022
S&P June Stock Market Lows - To Break or Not to Break? / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2022
By: Nadeem_Walayat
Stock Market - To break the June Low or not to break the June low, that is the question?
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Saturday, September 24, 2022
Stock Market BULL Trap SET! / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2022
By: Nadeem_Walayat
Stock Market FOMO's to 4280 Friday close ending at the high of the day! Short covering rally triggered by CPLIE of 8.5% down from 9.1% for June, all blind to the reality of what Inflation above 4% let alone above 8% actually means for the US economy and how it impacts the every day lives of ordinary americans that are destined for greater pain with each passing month even if CPLIE nose dives to under 4% which will make NO difference in terms of the Inflation pain that I suspect will run for the whole of this decade as the 10 year inflation graph warns of what looks set to come to pass. It's not rocket science, it's the consequences of over $9 trillion of QE, and $35 trillion of total GLOBAL money printing QE, the only way it won't show up in the inflation indices is if they systematically exclude everything that goes up in price, perhaps only leaving the ball point pen that Jerome Powell fidgets with at every Fed meeting.
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Friday, September 23, 2022
Economic Conditions, Market Performance Worsen after Fed Rate Hike / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2022
By: MoneyMetals
Precious metals markets are trying to tough this week despite another large rate hike by the Federal Reserve.
On Wednesday, the Fed raised its benchmark interest rate by three quarters as expected. Fed chairman Jerome Powell vowed to bring inflation down and restore price stability.
Jerome Powell: My colleagues and I are strongly committed to bringing inflation back down to our 2% goal. We have both the tools we need and the resolve that it will take to restore price stability on behalf of American families and businesses. Price stability is the responsibility of the Federal Reserve and serves as the bedrock of our economy. Without price stability, the economy does not work for anyone. We are moving our policy stance purposefully to a level that will be sufficiently restrictive to return inflation to 2%. The longer the current bout of high inflation continues the greater the chance that expectations of higher inflation will become entrenched.
After pursuing ultra-loose monetary policy that fomented price instability and massive inflation in the first place, Powell seems to now want to model himself after former Fed chairman Paul Volcker. In the early 1980s, Volcker jacked up interest rates to the highest on record to finally curtail the inflation surge from the late 1970s.
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Friday, September 23, 2022
Why You Should Be Leery of the Stocks Bond 60 / 40 Portfolio / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2022
By: EWI
"The tidal wave of risk assumption … may be turning"
Many investors allocate a percentage of their portfolios to bonds to cushion against a drop in the stock market.
A popular allocation is a 60 / 40 mix of stocks and bonds.
However, this hasn't worked out recently. Here's a Yahoo! Finance headline (Sept. 6):
The 60/40 strategy is on pace for its worst year since 1936: BofA
The mix of 60% stocks and 40% bonds was down 19.4% from the start of the year through the end of August, according to Bank of America Global Research.
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Thursday, September 22, 2022
Stock Market Smashing Fed Day / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2022
By: Monica_Kingsley
S&P 500 turned decisively lower, with only a very brief spike that got reversed within an hour. No room for bullish misinterpretation, Powell didn‘t say really anything that could feed buy the dip sentiment – he delivered. Treasuries are getting accustomed to the soft landing not turning out so soft in the future actually – yields at the long end of the curve have finally turned down while Fed tightening keeps being reflected on the short end, and junk bonds are suffering.
In all the risk-off, the dollar was unable to hold on to sharp gains both yesterday and today, and together with the crypto premarket upswing and real asset resiliency, this points to a reprieve in paper asset selling later this week. SPX 3,825 is the key level to watch today. I like the message commodities and precious metals are sending here – once it gets accompanied by miners and oil sector stocks, things would get brighter, but we are not there yet. Suffice to say that sharp downside is being decisively rejected.
Wednesday, September 21, 2022
STOCKS BEAR MARKETS ARE SUPPOSED TO BE PAINFUL! / Stock-Markets / Stocks Bear Market
By: Nadeem_Walayat
The bottom line is that bear markets are supposed to be PAINFUL! And I can tell many investors feel that PAIN from the comments as they post the latest price of say Intel or AMD or TSMC or any other stock trading lower as if I have a magic button to press to make the stock go higher. So if you are feeling PAIN then go read my earlier recent articles on the psychology of investing in bear markets because bear markets are PAINFUL where the degree of pain experienced depends on what time frame on is focused upon.
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Tuesday, September 20, 2022
Stocks Bear Market Accumulation Strategy / Stock-Markets / Investing 2022
By: Nadeem_Walayat
My strategy for this bear market from the outset has been be to accumulate during a volatile trend to a probable Dow target of 29k to 30k where I settled on my best guess of 29.6k, by late August. In the course of which I was expecting volatile swings of between 15% to 30% in either direction that would allow me to BUY big during the DIPs and then SELL a portion of what I bought during the bear market rallies, as well as selective shorting. Unfortunately this bear market has tuned out to be LESS volatile than what I was expecting i.e. swings higher of 9% are just not enough for any significant trimming of positions as the table illustrates.
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Friday, September 16, 2022
Dow Stock Market Elliott Wave Trend Forecast / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2022
By: Nadeem_Walayat
Despite being skeptical of Elliott wave theory and not abiding by any of it's tenants, i.e. I number the counts as I see them regardless of following the 'rules'. Nevertheless Elliott wave proved a useful tool during 2021 in the count down to the end of the Stocks bull market and the start of this bear market as the charts illustrate that there are times when EW BS actually works!
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Thursday, September 15, 2022
Stock Market Elliott Wave Analysis and Trend Forecast Sept to Dec 2022 / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2022
By: Nadeem_Walayat
Despite being skeptical of Elliott wave theory and not abiding by any of it's tenants, i.e. I number the counts as I see them regardless of following the 'rules'. Nevertheless Elliott wave proved a useful tool during 2021 in the count down to the end of the Stocks bull market and the start of this bear market as the charts illustrate that there are times when EW BS actually works!
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Friday, September 09, 2022
Stocks Bear Market Rally End Game / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2022
By: Nadeem_Walayat
Dear Reader
Mega earnings week saw the stock market soar on reporting euphoria where apparently the worse the earnings the stronger the rally in stocks such as Amazon due to the twin forces of investors piling into breakouts AND the market running short stops, which surely implies that the bear market could be OVER! After all the stock market discounts the future and so is looking beyond current BAD earnings and economic data to the blue sky's of future quarters, that coupled with US bonds rallying as the market tempered future interest rate expectations down from a peak of 4% for Mid 2023 to currently 3.25% all contributing towards the S&P closing higher at 4130.
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Friday, September 09, 2022
Here's a Potential Signal for What May Be Next for U.S. Stocks / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2022
By: EWI
This action by investors resulted in "the highest total since 2014, and probably ever"
Frost & Prechter's Wall Street classic book, Elliott Wave Principle: Key to Market Behavior, first published nearly 45 years ago and said:
"Eight years of a raging bear market have taught today's investor to be cautious, conservative and cynical. Defensiveness is not in evidence at tops."
Considering this description of investors' mindset in the late '70s and early '80s, many market observers were not contemplating the start of a big bull market.
Yet, Elliott Wave Principle did forecast a major uptrend and that's what happened.
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Friday, September 09, 2022
Answering Questions About Private Equity with Mark Hauser / Stock-Markets / Investing 2022
By: Sumeet_Manhas
According to McKinsey’s Private Markets Annual Review released in March of this year, private equity is continuing to experience growth. The report found that private market assets under management (AUM) has grown 170 percent over the past ten years, increasing by $4 trillion and today has reached an all-time high of $6.3 trillion. There are twice as many private equity firms out there than there were a decade ago, and the pooled investment rate of return (IRR) of 27 percent in 2021 saw private equity continue to be the highest-performing private markets asset class.
Mark Hauser, co-managing partner of Hauser Private Equity, highlights below what you need to know about private equity. Since its inception in 2008, Hauser Private Equity’s five funds have invested over $350 million in capital in privately-owned businesses nationally. With over three decades of investing and operating company experience, Hauser has facilitated the completion of over 500 investments and successfully realized over 150 of them.
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Monday, September 05, 2022
Stock Market Reality Check / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2022
By: Nadeem_Walayat
Mega earnings week saw the stock market soar on reporting euphoria where apparently the worse the earnings the stronger the rally in stocks such as Amazon due to the twin forces of investors piling into breakouts AND the market running short stops, which surely implies that the bear market could be OVER! After all the stock market discounts the future and so is looking beyond current BAD earnings and economic data to the blue sky's of future quarters, that coupled with US bonds rallying as the market tempered future interest rate expectations down from a peak of 4% for Mid 2023 to currently 3.25% all contributing towards the S&P closing higher at 4130.
Whilst the market was in the grips of BAD earnings mania I took the opportunity to trim my holdings which is another word for light selling, where my selling only went deep for Amazon which took my percent of portfolio down from 1.6% to 1.3% though after taking account of the price jump it's back up to 1.5% of portfolio which means I will probably sell more Amazon next week/ Whilst percent exposure is irrelevant right now as I am seeking to further reduce my max exposure limit. So more selling in the pipeline for Amazon and to a lesser extent others as the stock market so far has not done anything I have not been expecting it to do with the S&P having fulfilled my minimum target of 4080 and now has entered the TREACLE resistance zone of 4080 to 4180 as my forecast graph of some months illustrates.
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Friday, September 02, 2022
Stock Market Bull Bear Cat and Mouse Game / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2022
By: Monica_Kingsley
S&P 500 dicey premarket upswing fizzled out right after the open, volume picked up, and market breadth correspondigly deteriorated. Bonds confirmed, and the higher yields didn‘t even send the dollar much upwards. Together with the sea of red in commodities and precious metals, this smacks of deleveraging, still of the relatively orderly flavor if you look at the well behaved VIX at 26 only. The steep post Jackson Hole downswing will pause, but there isn‘t a sign that would happen precisely today yet.
Looking at the daily chart of CRB Index, crude oil, gold and silver with the miners, odds are that we would see a repeat of yesterday‘s action today as well – to a good degree. Not much has really change since my yesterday‘s review of real assets and cryptos, and especially the crude oil setback (reinforced by the Iran deal speculation Europe is pinning its eyes on) is generally worrying. The Fed keeps hammering the same message, and short end of the curve keeps duly rising. Tombstone reminder for those overstaying in the S&P 500 rally to the 200-day moving average, would be „don‘t fight the Fed – the central bank doesn‘t have your bank now, and would act on the out of control inflation“.
Thursday, September 01, 2022
Qualcom Harbinger, AI Predicts Future Stock Prices 3 Years Ahead, China Bank Runs / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2022
By: Nadeem_Walayat
QCOM illustrates how the bottoms will tend to play out for most of the AI tech stocks, for if you are not already invested then you will likely end up waiting for the second chance to buy near the bottom all the way towards new all time highs. For instance I would be surprised if we see anywhere near $118 on Qualcom again, I may be wrong but I am assuming there are a lot of investors now wishing they had bought near $120 and are thus eager for another bite at the cherry.
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Thursday, September 01, 2022
Beware of This Deceptive Stocks Bear-Market Trait / Stock-Markets / Stocks Bear Market
By: EWI
There's only one rule which applies to a 2nd wave rally...
Big stock market trends don't progress up or down in a straight line. In a bear market, stocks typically rebound after the first leg down. In a bull market, the opposite happens: Stocks again take a big dive, making everyone think the bear market has returned.
But in a bear market, that "first leg down" is wave 1 and the partial "rebound" which follows is wave 2. I say "partial" because the only rule which applies to wave 2 is that it cannot retrace 100% of wave 1. Meaning, the bear market rally cannot go above the previous market top.
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Saturday, August 20, 2022
Stock Market Trend Target, Why Peak Inflation is a Red Herring / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2022
By: Nadeem_Walayat
The stock market remains within a trading range of S&P 3935 to 3720 with the most recent price action being a rally following a brief break BELOW the range on Thursday to run the long stops before the market reversed sharply higher. The S&P looks set to target a break of 3935 the importance of which would be to go against the bear markets tendency for down swings to exceed the preceding up swings which thus acts to weaken the bear market until either a reversal from bear market to bull market is confirmed or the bear market once more puts in a dominant big downswing. Nevertheless a break above 3935 would indicate that the last swing down was just -5.7% and thus corrective against the previous upswing of +8.9% that at least suggests to expect a similar swing higher and thus in the first instance targets 4036 which is inline with my existing target to reach resistance between 4080 and 4120.
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Saturday, August 13, 2022
Qualcom Stock Market Harbinger / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2022
By: Nadeem_Walayat
QCOM illustrates how the bottoms will tend to play out for most of the AI tech stocks, for if you are not already invested then you will likely end up waiting for the second chance to buy near the bottom all the way towards new all time highs. For instance I would be surprised if we see anywhere near $118 on Qualcom again, I may be wrong but I am assuming there are a lot of investors now wishing they had bought near $120 and are thus eager for another bite at the cherry.
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Thursday, August 11, 2022
Severe Stocks Bear Market: Will You Be Among the Prepared 1.5%? / Stock-Markets / Stocks Bear Market
By: EWI
"Oftentimes, rallies will end with an inter-index non-confirmation"A long-long time ago in a galaxy far away... errr, on the heels of the year 2000 dot-com crash, to be exact -- which is ancient history for many investors today -- the February 2003 Elliott Wave Theorist, a monthly publication which has covered financial markets and major cultural trends since 1979, published an interview with Elliott Wave International President Robert Prechter.
Prechter was asked if he was surprised by investors' lack of capitulation since the bear market started in 2000.
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Monday, August 08, 2022
Stock Market Unclosed Gap / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2022
By: Monica_Kingsley
S&P 500 bulls made a good run, but didn‘t deal with the bearish outcome looming, The renewed tightening bets spurred by strong headline NFPs figure, will take their toll on risk-on assets that had been driving Friday‘s run. Bets on another 75bp hike in Sep have increased dramatically, practically proving Daly or Kashkari right in that the Fed isn‘t done yet or even close to the Fed funds rate to really get inflation down. While they claim that 2% is doable and soft landing within reach, the progression from 9% downwards just doesn‘t go fast like that. At best (repeating myself for months here), they would get to 5-6% CPI, which means a tough Sep and one more FOMC still this year. Combined with balnce sheet shrinking projections, that would take a great toll on the real economy – one that is being softened by the still very expansive fiscal policy.
Let‘s look around the world (apart from the troubles in Europe and Asia such as shown in JPY weakness), many other central banks are tightening, Latin America is also tightening. It‘s not only UK and the implications discussed on Friday:
(…) Let‘s have a look at yesterday‘s Bank of England moves, kind of foreshadowing what‘s reasonable to expect from the Fed. In the UK, the prospect of entering recession Q4 2022 amd remaining in it for more than a couple of quarters, is being acknowledged. The central bank though intends to keep tightening anyway, preferring to take on inflation after it ran out of control longer they publicly anticipated. Meanwhile in the States, unemployment claims have edged higher – indicative of growing softness in the labor market.
Long-dated Treasuries continue rising as is appropriate in these conditions of economic slowdown slowly gathering pace. Similarly to inflation expectations, they‘re not yet taking the Fed‘s hawkish rhetoric absolutely seriously unlike commodity prices that are at best carving out a bullish divergence (still in the making, therefore without implications yet). Precious metals appear farther along the route of acknowledging the upcoming stagflationary reality as I continue looking for inflation to remain in the stubbornly high 5-6% range no matter the Fed‘s actions over the next 3 FOMC meetings at least. Obviously, the hotter the underlying markets, the more tightening has to be done, and that‘s extra headwind for the markets, and one making the Fed pivot a bit more elusive.
The key thing that has changed from the above, is the turn in yields – Treasuries would have a harder time rising now, but given that I expect better CPI on Wednesday (oil is down and hasn‘t bottomed yet etc), yields should retreat in what I look to be a positive market reaction – one of hoping that the Fed wouldn‘t tighten that much as is feared today they would. This wouldn‘t however save the stock market bulls.
Friday, August 05, 2022
Stock Market Rallying On Slowly Thinning Air / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2022
By: Monica_Kingsley
S&P 500 rose, driven by tech at expense of value, which is normail in economic slowdowns. The junk bond rally however stands out – a prime candidate to attract selling at the nearest whiff of risk-off. The many fundamental reasons described in Monday‘s article, remain intact, if there weren‘t geopolitical ones. Tellingly, the yield curve inversion continues deepening, and bonds aren‘t buying the tightening story in the least – they fear the Fed overdoing it. And that‘s a key catalyst behind yesterday‘s decline in real assets, with its new interpretations of neutral Fed funds rate, or „having enough not to make trade-offs“ inflation remarks.
Sure, ISM services PMI provided a daily boost to the rally, and so the revamp calculations behind tomorrow‘s non-farm payrolls would work (would the pesky hours worked sending the opposite message, get recalculated as well?) in a bid to keep the increasingly FOMO confidence in the S&P 500 rally going. It still has the hallmarks of a short-covering rally, and not of genuine animal spirits – that doesn‘t square with the dreaded R word.
Thursday, August 04, 2022
Stock Market Trend Pattren 2022 Forecast Current State / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2022
By: Nadeem_Walayat
My stock market big picture remains to expect the Dow to target a trend towards 29,600 by late August / Early September. Note 29,600 is a TARGET for a low and NOT THE LOW, No one can KNOW THE LOW with any degree of confidence, all one can do is arrive at a high probability target and then look to see if the market confirms that expectation or not, so far the market is confirming it is heading for 29,600.
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Thursday, August 04, 2022
Will the S&P 500 Stock Market Index Go the Way of Meme Stocks? / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2022
By: EWI
Here's what usually happens when "financial lunacy" is prevalent
You don't hear much about the meme stock craze anymore -- and for good reason.
It's all but dead and has been for months (Barron's, Jan. 28):
A Year After It Began, Meme-Stock Mania Is on Life Support
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Thursday, August 04, 2022
Stock Market Another Upswing Attempt / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2022
By: Monica_Kingsley
S&P 500 refused to swing higher yesterday, and bonds weren‘t much risk-on either. Revisiting the neutral Fed funds rate comments didn‘t do much good for risk sentiment, even though HYG doesn‘t yet reflect that with its closing price. A new attempt at 4,140s looks to be in the making, and even if we get a break higher, it‘s going to be a fake one, and fail. It would also coincide with a rejection of lower VIX values around 22, in favor of reverting back to the high 20s recent average.
The current optimism seems misplaced, and the upcoming ISM services PMI would reveal the slowly deteriorating internals of economic growth. Coupled with manufacturing PMI, these leading indicators illustrate a tough real economy to come in late 2022 / early 2023 – the dreaded R word.
Wednesday, August 03, 2022
The REAL Stocks Bear Market of 2022 / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2022
By: Nadeem_Walayat
US Housing market variables are in a state of flux for we have the consequences of Quantitative Tightening with the Fed having started to sell $15 billion of Mortgage Backed securities per month, US teetering on the brink of recession given that Q1 saw -1.4% with Q2 also expected to be weak, a coin flip between +0.2 and -0.2 or worse and thus hey presto the RECESSION has ARRIVED! Brewing Financial Crisis 2.0 that I I flagged some 10 months ago where the reverse repo market of $1 trillion has now doubled to $2 trillion which implies increasing counter party risk where we wont know what the banking crime syndicate has exactly been upto in the housing market until banks start failing. Interest rate hikes of 0.75% when the Fed Chairman said 0.75% was off the table which means US rates are probably going to go a lot higher tham most can imagine today, consensus is 3.25% to 3.5%, reality could be north of 5%, so a lot of variables are in a state of flux which means instead of seeing clarity with more data I am seeing confusion!
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Sunday, July 31, 2022
US Fed Is Battling Excess Global Capital – Which Is Creating Inflation / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2022
By: Chris_Vermeulen
The US Fed continues to bring the big guns, raising rates another 75 bp (0.75%) on July 27, 2022. Even though they stated the economy is softening, current Inflation and CPI data suggest otherwise. The US Fed may be forced into another 75~100 bp rate increase next month if the US economy continues to show strong CPI and Inflation trends. There is only one other time in recent history like the current market environment – 1998~2004.
The DOT COM Bubble was unique in the sense that excess capital flowed into technology/internet companies’ hand-over-fist. It seemed all you had to do was register a URL, come up with some crazy business plan, and go talk to investors/VC. It was not a crisis like the 2008-09 Global Financial Crisis event. The DOT COM Bubble was a process of unwinding/consolidating excess capital away from a euphoric speculative phase in the markets.
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Friday, July 29, 2022
What it's like at a Stocks Bear Market Bottom / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2022
By: Nadeem_Walayat
This clip from March 2009 illustrates what it's like at a market bottom, that had analysts stating at Dow 6490 that the Dow was nowhere near a bottom which was at least another 20% to 25% further below.
AT THE BOTTOM
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Tuesday, July 26, 2022
The Psychology of Investing in a Stocks Bear Market / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2022
By: Nadeem_Walayat
Every bull market is followed by a bear market and every bear market is followed by a bull market, where courtesy of the electron and inflation mega-trends the general indices are on an upwards exponential trend trajectory. Thus all bear markets are living on borrowed time and thus ones focus should be on accumulating positions in good stocks i.e. those that actually generate earnings and have good prospects for continuing earnings growth that courtesy of bear market negative sentiment results in prices trading to under value stocks i.e. to under X18 earnings, where everything above X18 is carrying a premium which is why I completely sold out of many stocks last year such as Amazon and Nvidia even though they had yet to peak due to the risks of a valuation reset as I covered in my in-depth analysis of August 2021
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Tuesday, July 26, 2022
Stock Market Bearish Test / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2022
By: Monica_Kingsley
S&P 500 bears took over from the 4,010s area but didn‘t close convincingly – and bonds didn‘t tank, which means this rally isn‘t yet over. It may extend beyond Monday‘s premarket, and even cover all this time of upcoming key tech earnings reports. These wouldn‘t be as disastrous as is the market‘s expectation – suffice to look at Tesla. And if they are smart to avoid guidance for 2H 2022 (second half), S&P 500 may not stop above 4,030s in the least. HYG holds the key now, VIX isn‘t about to spike sharply, and the dollar isn‘t on a tear either.
Macroeconomically, we have many leading indicators dipping negative – such as the new orders component of the Philladelphia Fed manufacturing index, which makes U.S. recession at the end of 2022 / early 2023 a foregone conclusion. S&P global composite is now negative as namely Europe is struggling already. So, the stock market bulls are running on borrowed time, yet in the best case scenario, it can take longer than the next week for prices to resume their downswing – reality of not lower P/E multiples, but of lower earnings over the quarters ahead, would catch up with stocks as much as the stubborn inflation keeping above 5% no matter the coming two Fed rate hikes. Think stagflation with stocks in a trading range, and reversion to the mean strategies having a good time. More thoughts are reserved for premium subscribers.
Friday, July 22, 2022
Expert Says the Stock Market Tide Has Gone Out / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2022
By: The_Gold_Report
Expert Michael Ballanger reviews the current market cycle, Elon Musk's impact on the stock market, and reveals the stock he says has a positive outlook amidst the chaotic backdrop of summer 2022.
As a sexagenarian market philosopher soon to become a septuagenarian market philosopher, I am finding myself somewhat embarrassed when younger people (other than family) ask me my opinion on something. I usually try to reply to their inquiry in the manner in which my father (RCAF WWII navigator William Roland Ballanger) used to advise me in the very early days of my hockey career when some youngster would come up for an autograph or a simple “Hi Mike” to which I would always stop, bend down to his height, extend my hand, and say, “Hello to you, and what would your name be?” at which point he (or she) would look up to their parent(s) for guidance and then (almost always) tell me.
At this point in the encounter, I would offer the beaming youngster my hand and as we shook, I would say, “It is a great pleasure to meet you, and thank you for saying hello.”
That behavior came from RCAF Navigator W.R. Ballanger who recounted the story from his life that dwelled in the realm of geopolitical nonsense in the days after the Nazi's threw a historically successful and prosperous German society into total ruin and starvation.
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Thursday, July 21, 2022
Test drive EWI's Financial Forecast Service / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2022
By: EWI
Hi reader,
Market action this year has hurt A LOT of people. Cryptos. Meme stocks. Tech stocks. We've seen some huge percentage declines -- all against a backdrop of historic leaps in interest rates and inflation.
Lifestyles irrevocably changed, not for the better.
Economists missed it. The Fed missed it. Politicians missed it.
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Thursday, July 21, 2022
Stock Market Peril Approaching / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2022
By: Monica_Kingsley
S&P 500 had trouble extending gains, bonds didn‘t close on a strong note, and the dollar is readying an upswing. Can easily happen on the ECB move, and poof – there goes risk-on sentiment. Every hike is a move closer to demand destruction, and real assets are afraid – markets aren‘t yet sensing the Fed pivot, and concentrate on hawkish moves ahead. Quoting a bit from yesterday‘s premium analysis:
(…) Stocks are set to muddle through higher – this isn‘t yet the time to translate weakening earnings outlook or declining liquidity into the S&P 500 prices. Bonds need some time before their upswing continues. The dollar retreated, but hasn‘t yet made a top – that event is approaching, and would be seen in greater resilience in precious metals, namely gold. For now, the metals remain lackluster, with copper doing considerably worse (reaching $3.50 would be a success for the red metal this week really, I‘m not counting on that).
More thoughts are to be found within today‘s rich chart sections.
Thursday, July 21, 2022
Important: Are your Stocks in Stage 1, 2, 3, or 4? / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2022
By: Submissions
Every investor is asking the same question: When will stocks bottom?
As you know, the S&P 500 is down 20% this year and firmly in a bear market.
Since 1929, the S&P 500’s had 14 bear markets... lasting around 19 months, on average. Which means if the current bear market lasts an “average” length, we’ll see the bottom next summer.
But asking when stocks as a whole will bottom is the WRONG question. Instead, investors should be asking…
Wednesday, July 20, 2022
Dow Stock Market 2022 Forecast Trend Pattern / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2022
By: Nadeem_Walayat
The stock market bounce fizzled out at 4180, thus no break above 4200 to target a trend to 4290 let alone anything higher and one does not need to look far for the culprit. CPLIE of 8.6% as the consensus and likely the FED had convinced themselves to expect inflation to have peaked hence triggering a whiff of panic as to what the Fed will do next to combat inflation.
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Wednesday, July 20, 2022
Stock Market Trend Pattern 2022 / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2022
By: Nadeem_Walayat
My stock market big picture remains to expect the Dow to target a trend towards a probable bottom by late August / Early September at approx Dow 29,600 So far the stock market has not done anything to negate this scenario and thus remains the direction of travel ahead of my next stock market in-depth analysis.
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Monday, July 18, 2022
Stock Market Risk-On Vs. Liquidity Squeeze / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2022
By: Monica_Kingsley
S&P 500 ended a losing streak thanks to the still fine retail sales data, and even consumer confidence edged up. In the flattening yield curve characterizing the move to a slow growth phase, it was (and will be) up to tech to outperform value. Also healthcare is likely to see brighter times ahead. If I were to pick two reasons for why I think stocks are bottoming here, it would be the risk-on turn in bonds accompanied by the 10-year yield soundly below 3.25%, and the capitulation in oil stocks (former star performer as these are likely to get pulled down among the last sectors while the key laggards such as tech are on the verge of starting to outperform) coupled with oil holding my $93 support.
Wednesday‘s very hot CPI print means that the pressure on the Fed to keep hiking aggressively, is on. Indeed no pause in inflation, and if PPI is anything to go by (it is) then there is a lot more in the pipeline – and I‘m not bringing up owners‘ equivalent rent, which would continue driving inflation ahead (it‘ll be now service driven as opposed to goods driven). With 50bp obviously not being enough to recoup some of the Fed‘s badly damaged credibility, the question is by how much they hike actually. There is chatter about a full 1%, but another 75bp one looks most probable to me. And should we see signs of inflation moderating (gasoline and heating oil topped in June, which would help the July figures, and with inflation expectations pointing lower now, odds are that we would then get 25bp in September, and that‘s it – midterms next, justifying Fed‘s wait and see posture.
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Sunday, July 17, 2022
Dow Stock Market 2022 Trend Pattern / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2022
By: Nadeem_Walayat
Dear Reader
This is brief stock market update as I seek to complete my extensive analysis of the US Housing Market which the following contents list indicates extent of -
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Sunday, July 17, 2022
What Are The Driving Forces Behind The Shift In Global Financial Markets Risks? / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2022
By: Chris_Vermeulen
Global market risks have shifted dramatically over the past 90+ days. It almost seems as though the global markets turned 180 degrees overnight, generally going from moderately soft monetary policies to very extreme monetary policies and conditions. This sudden shift caught many traders and investors off guard and resulted in -20% to -25% losses for many.
The driving forces behind this sudden shift are inflation and excess capital (M2) because of nearly a decade of near-zero US interest rates. Much of the excess capital created over the past decade has been deployed into global equities, infrastructure, and various speculative instruments (art, homes, cryptos, collectibles, and others). However, without a doubt, the recent burst of inflation is also a result of COVID restrictions. Such restrictions reduced supply capabilities and the resulting interruptions of manufacturing/supply have been felt throughout the post-COVID global recovery.
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Wednesday, July 13, 2022
Stocks, Pot Stocks & Bonds: 5 global Market Forecasts / Stock-Markets / Financial Crisis 2022
By: EWI
Hi reader,
Back in 1992, our friends at Elliott Wave International began offering their institutional subscribers a thin monthly brochure packed with big-picture forecasts for key markets.
Today, 30 years later, Global Market Perspective is still one of EWI's most-read publications.
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Tuesday, July 12, 2022
Gold, Stocks, Bitcoin, and Bonds Asset Price Deflation / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2022
By: Kelsey_Williams
Before we talk about asset price deflation, let’s review what happened before 2022.
Most financial assets benefited enormously from the Fed’s hugely gratuitous efforts to support, sustain and reinflate prices after the 2020 collapse and the ensuing forced economic shutdown.
From the article Gold Market Manipulation And The Federal Reserve…
“Long-side investors in all assets, including precious metals, ‘benefited’ from the manipulative efforts of the Federal Reserve twelve years ago and again just recently.
The recent recovery in prices for stocks, bonds, oil, gold, and silver has been almost unbelievable. It is literally jaw-dropping…” June 28, 2020
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Monday, July 11, 2022
Stocks Bear Market Rally Last Gasp Before Earnings Season / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2022
By: Nadeem_Walayat
Before I get started with my stock market analysis here is my take on the political assassination of Boris Johnson, who was stabbed in the back Thursday by so called colleagues Julius Caesar style by a Tory party that effectively committed electoral suicide. Britain demonstrates the illusion of democracy where we vote one person and his party in who soon gets replaced with a waste of spacer that the electorate did not vote for! A loss of a PM for any reason should automatically trigger a general election.
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Saturday, July 09, 2022
How to Prepare for a Hard-Hitting Stocks Bear Market (Think 1929-1932) / Stock-Markets / Stocks Bear Market
By: EWI
This metric of bullishness is higher than it was at the top of the dot-com mania
An important step in preparing for a historic bear market is to embrace cash or cash equivalents.
This may seem obvious, but even with the stock market in a downtrend, cash is shunned by many an investor -- retail and professional. Many of these investors believe the bull market will resume -- sooner rather than later.
As the May Elliott Wave Theorist, a monthly publication which analyzes financial markets and major cultural trends, noted:
The percentage of assets dedicated to equities in American Association of Individual Investors members' portfolios remains near a bullish extreme. ... They think a "correction" is in force but not a bear market.
So, AAII members have been holding more stocks than cash.
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Thursday, June 30, 2022
Stock Market Turning the Screws / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2022
By: Monica_Kingsley
S&P 500 duly paused yesterday but the (beyond very short-term) outlook remains as bearish as before. Bonds agree, but in the interests of real assets, I would have preferred to see stronger performance by miners and oil stocks. This suggests the next downleg in the stock market would affect precious metals and commodities as well. Some relative resilience (especially in gold) is there but won‘t be enough to change the neutral to bearish outlook in the least. As always in this tightening period (Treasuries keep the pressure and USD is rising), copper (with silver) are to suffer the most. Cryptos – that‘s the same story. It‘s only in oil where I expect the bulls to put up a good fight – the spike didn‘t happen yet, and once oil stocks decouple again from the general stock market, it would be easier. For today, I look for a strong day in the red across the board – good for open profits in stocks and cryptos.
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Thursday, June 30, 2022
How to Ignore Stocks (and why you should) / Stock-Markets / Investing 2022
By: Stephen_McBride
I know it’s hard to take your eyes off the market…
It’s like watching a slow-motion car crash.
Everyone, not just finance folks, is chatting about the declining stock market. My wife called me, joking she was returning some items to save money.
If you’re like most investors, you’ve probably been fixated on stock prices lately.
Today, I’ll show you why that’s a mistake.
Instead, you should focus on the single biggest driver of stock market returns, which I’ll share in a moment.
Tuesday, June 28, 2022
This “Bizarre” Chart is Wrecking the Stock Market / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2022
By: Stephen_McBride
nflation just keeps getting worse…
The cost of heating your home has doubled over the past year.
Want to take a summer vacation? That airfare will cost you 50% more than last year.
Whose fault is this?
It’s easy—and partially correct—to blame the US Government and the Fed. After all, they showered Americans with big stimulus checks and generous unemployment benefits, then held interest rates at zero.
But as I’ll show you in this essay… that’s an incomplete explanation.
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Monday, June 27, 2022
Stock Market Watching Out / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2022
By: Monica_Kingsley
S&P 500 squeeze aka overdue relief rally in the end developed, on sharply improving daily momentum and quite supportive bonds. Would that change the medium-term picture though? It would serve only to suck in bulls, thinking the bottom is in – while the Fed doesn‘t have the stock market‘s back, and the reprieve in market-requested tightening, would pass. The recent decline in oil prices coupled with Fed acknowledgement of some real economy difficulties, isn‘t enough for taming inflation. While prices would moderate their pace of increases, the appreciation in essentials would be unstoppable and to a large degree immune to the real economy staring at a very late 2022 / early 2023 recession (if one wouldn‘t be declared soon because of all the tightening).
Whether Powell goes 50bp or 75bp in July, will be quite indicative – I‘m not excluding hawkish (75bp) September either. The gas and energy measures are of stopgap nature, yet buying a little time for the Fed. Should the central bank not take the opportunity to tighten more, the decision would backfire down the road – just as the transitory talking point did. For now, less tight conditions (driving sentiment) would help stocks make it to the 4,000s probably – but the sell, the ambush is hanging in the air, and would take us to 3,500-3,600 target in my view (the bottom). Both value and tech kicked in on Friday but the dollar isn‘t retreating, money is still sitting on the sidelines.
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Thursday, June 23, 2022
Everyone and their Grandma is Expecting a Big Stocks Bear Market Rally / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2022
By: Nadeem_Walayat
Everyone and their grandma has been eagerly awaiting a big bear market bounce since at least the start of May that has repeatedly failed to materialise, why? It's because everyone and their grandma has been expecting a big market rally that's why! Here's another update on the state of the AI stocks portfolio in advance of finalising my 3 YEAR US house prices trend forecast.
My bear market expectations remain for the Dow to target a trend to 29,600 due to be achieved during August / Early September for an approx 20% top to bottom bear market target.
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Thursday, June 23, 2022
The Fed’s Hawkish Bite Left Its Mark on the S&P 500 Stocks / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2022
By: P_Radomski_CFA
By raising interest rates, the Fed poured cold water on the red-hot markets and finally chilled investors' enthusiasm. What's next for asset prices?
Work in Progress
With the Fed’s hawkish hammer pounding the financial markets, the selling pressure coincided with events unseen since 2008. Moreover, with the work in progress to reduce inflation poised to push asset prices even lower, I’ve long warned that we’re likely far from a medium-term bottom. For example, I wrote on May 31:
With recession fears decelerating and optimism returning to Wall Street, the bulls are brimming with confidence.
Thursday, June 23, 2022
No Dodging the Stock Market Bullet / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2022
By: Monica_Kingsley
S&P 500 recovered from the intraday reversal to the downside, thanks to tech. Value‘s poor showing can be chalked down to the riskier junk bonds losing early gains, meaning the daily stock market move didn‘t surprise much when bonds closing values are considered. What‘s though flying under the radar, is the turn in Treasury yields – a couple of days after FOMC, bonds are having second thoughs, and aren‘t pushing the Fed to raise too steeply. Anyway, I wouldn‘t be surprised to see 75bp hike in July, to be continued with a few more 50bp hikes then. Coupled with the balance sheet that‘s about to shrink, that would finally start denting inflation – at the cost of real economy growth.
I say growth while I was looking for a Q1 GDP print to come in negative, and Q2 GDP would turn lackluster as well. Still, a full-fledged recession in the usual sense of the word (the consequences), won‘t hit until very late 2022 even though NBER might declare one (based also on unrelenting inflation data) earlier. All the typical signs are in – we had yield curve inversion, oil prices doubled in a relatively short amount of time, and inflation is entrenched above 5%. Whatever the Fed does – and it‘ll do a lot – inflation in essentials won‘t be dented all that much. There‘s no dodging the bullet in my view, and the markets would gradually go from living the soft landing fantasy to readjusting to the hard landing reality to come.
Tuesday, June 21, 2022
The Fed is Incompetent - Beware the Dancing Market Puppet / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2022
By: The_Gold_Report
Expert Michael Ballanger reviews this week's market updates from Wednesday's FOMC meeting to his outlook on Getchell Gold Corp., which he maintains is a "pound-the-table Buy."
Firstly, if Wednesday’s FOMC meeting featuring Chairman Jerome (I have tools!) Powell did nothing else, it did accentuate just how incompetent they are. Powell stood in front of the cameras and told the world that the American economy was “strong” while one of his own branches, the Atlanta Fed, reported just a day earlier that growth had slowed to 0.00%, which is anything but “strong.”
“Stocks are super-unattractive when the Fed is loosening tightening and interest rates are falling rising. Don’t fight the Fed.”
— Legendary Fund Manager Marty Zweig
As the afternoon wore on, stocks moved higher thinking that the .75% rate hike to be followed by more .75% rate hikes throughout the year (targeting Fed Funds at 3.5%) should be seen as a bullish signal. Reductions in the Fed balance sheet assets and sharply rising rates are about as far from a bullish signal as one can get, so in the last hour, a 600-point Dow rally became a 300-point uptick setting the stage for today’s wake-up call, and 741-point slide.
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Monday, June 20, 2022
AI Tech Stocks Current State, Is AMAZON a Dying Tech Giant? / Stock-Markets / Tech Stocks
By: Nadeem_Walayat
Dear Reader
The stocks bear market continues with most AI tech stocks putting in new bear market lows during the past week, with key exceptions being Facebook and AVGO. Whilst Apple, Microsoft and Nvidia were the weakest stocks of the week, though all stocks rallied strongly Friday led by AMD which ended the week up 10% followed by Micron at +6% which are definitely two stocks to aim to accumulate during any further market weakness.
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Sunday, June 19, 2022
Will Global Markets Be Pushed Deeper Into Crisis Event By The US Fed? / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2022
By: Chris_Vermeulen
US and Global markets recoiled from the higher inflation/CPI data last week. The US Fed raised interest rates by 75pb on June 15. The Fed also warned that other, more aggressive rate increases might be necessary later this year. Before the Fed decision, global markets opened on Sunday, June 12, and quickly started selling downward. US Indexes sold off on Monday, June 13, by more than 2.5% almost across the board. A brief rally after the Fed decision seems to have evaporated in early trading on Thursday, June 16.
It is clear that global markets expected inflation to stay elevated but were hoping for some moderately lower data showing the recent Fed moves had already dented some inflation concerns. Now, it appears the US Fed has its backs against a wall and moved rates aggressively higher to stall inflation (and possibly destroy global asset values). From my perspective, this is unknown territory for the US Fed and Global Central banks. That means traders should expect increased volatility and the possibility of a very determined reversion of price over time.
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Wednesday, June 15, 2022
State of the Stocks Bear Market / Stock-Markets / Stocks Bear Market
By: Nadeem_Walayat
Stocks put in a bottom of sorts Friday, but this is NOT THE Bottom where my existing view is to expect a Dow bottom during August at an approx level at 29,600, which is pending my next in-depth analysis. So 32,200 puts the Dow about 9% away from a probable bottom that would result in a 25% peak to trough bear market so we are about 2/3rds the way through this bear market in terms of price.
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Wednesday, June 15, 2022
The Dow Industrials’ Big 8-Wave Cycle is Incomplete / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2022
By: EWI
"We finally understand our full Elliott wave position"
The Wave Principle's basic pattern includes five waves in the direction of the larger trend, followed by three corrective waves, as illustrated in both bull and bear markets below:
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Monday, June 13, 2022
Dow Stocks Bear Market Forecast Trend Trajectory / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2022
By: Nadeem_Walayat
Following a false break lower on 20th of May the stock market has managed to unwind some of what was an extremely oversold state, In fact that is 2 false breaks in a row on the Dow chart (red circles). Still the rally is galvanising many to start fantasising that the bottom is in when at the end of the day it is what it is a bounce from a very over sold state and thus a bear market rally that faces a lot of head winds when one considers all those who were buying stocks for a good month between Dow 34,250 and 35,250, who will now be eager for a chance to lighten their load on a rally back into their break even price zone which suggests that this bear market rally will terminate long before the Dow gets anywhere near 34,250 so I don't see much upside both in terms of price and time for this rally.
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Sunday, June 12, 2022
Trading the Calm Before the Stock Market Storm – Consider Putting On A Long Strangle / Stock-Markets / Options & Warrants
By: Chris_Vermeulen
There are times when markets consolidate and move sideways in a relatively narrow range. We often see low volatility, little trending, and “choppy” price action when the market is slow.
Range-bound, consolidating markets eventually resolve in one direction or the other. Breaking out of a narrow range often takes a catalyst event like a highly anticipated economic report or – in the case of individual stocks – something like an earnings report or FDA approval. Quite often, it is the anticipation of the event itself that keeps price range-bound. Without knowledge of the event outcome, both bulls and bears are waiting it out before making large commitments.
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Saturday, June 11, 2022
Economic "Hurricane": Here's a Take on a Bank CEO's Warning / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2022
By: EWI
Here's what reached a nadir as the war in Ukraine broke out
On June 1, a CNBC headline said:
[Major bank CEO] says 'brace yourself' for an economic hurricane caused by the Fed and Ukraine war
Yes, the U.S. central bank is engaging in so-called "quantitative tightening" and the war persists in Ukraine.
Yet, those cited "causes" of a possible economic "hurricane," like a severe recession or even a depression, are results themselves. For instance, the war in Ukraine resulted from a shift in social mood -- going from positive to negative.
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Friday, June 10, 2022
Will Ignoring Fundamentals Take Revenge on Bullish Stock Traders? / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2022
By: P_Radomski_CFA
While the Fed strives to tame inflation, short-term investors continue to ruin its efforts with bullish actions. Will their love of risk pay off?
With the S&P 500 enjoying a mid-day rally on Jun. 7 and the GDXJ ETF (proxy for junior gold and silver mining stocks) following suit, the bulls warmed up to the idea of a "soft landing." However, with a much higher U.S. federal funds rate needed to cool inflation, the short-term optimism should be short-lived.
To explain, I've noted on numerous occasions that risk-on sentiment often reverberates across multiple markets. Therefore, when stocks bid higher, commodities usually follow, and this increases the Fed's inflation conundrum. As a result, investors' optimism enhances the pricing pressures.
Tuesday, June 07, 2022
Dow Stocks Bear Market Trend Trajectory / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2022
By: Nadeem_Walayat
Following a false break lower on 20th of May the stock market has managed to unwind some of what was an extremely oversold state, In fact that is 2 false breaks in a row on the Dow chart (red circles). Still the rally is galvanising many to start fantasising that the bottom is in when at the end of the day it is what it is a bounce from a very over sold state and thus a bear market rally that faces a lot of head winds when one considers all those who were buying stocks for a good month between Dow 34,250 and 35,250, who will now be eager for a chance to lighten their load on a rally back into their break even price zone which suggests that this bear market rally will terminate long before the Dow gets anywhere near 34,250 so I don't see much upside both in terms of price and time for this rally.
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Tuesday, June 07, 2022
The Horns of Fed‘s Inflation Dilemma / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2022
By: Monica_Kingsley
S&P 500 gave up Thursday‘s gains much too easily – not even the short window of opportunity gets acted upon. Medium-term trend is winning – stocks will roll over to a fresh downtrend, it‘s a question of time. Bonds aren‘t offering too much of a reprieve – the 10-year yield didn‘t even decline below 1.70% when testing below 1.50% was doable. This merely highlights the brief time window for CPI inflation to make a peak – before raising its head once again. Commodity price inflation isn‘t going to be tamed, and Friday‘s non-farm payrolls have been a last good figure before we see further deterioration. As I wrote that Q1 GDP could very well be negative, the same goes for Q2 GDP – I‘m counting with stall speed.
For now, each upcoming Fed meeting till September, has 50bp rate hike priced in. The question remains what happens after September – would the Fed pivot already? Crude oil prices could be more than easing by that time, if you know what I mean. The focus would have shifted from inflation to economic growth support – that would be the drumbeat of the day. Precious metals are to be the first to anticipate the next dovish turn (backing off tightening), and that moment could happen later in summer. The copper upswing is likely to continue, and factors beyond China and supply with stockpiles, continue to speak against a deeper downswing. It‘s a bit similar to the realization that not even the OPEC+ production increase would be enough to satisfy world demand.
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Saturday, June 04, 2022
Stock Market Rally on Borrowed Time / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2022
By: Monica_Kingsley
S&P 500 was indeed building a bull flag, which „must“ now continue with a fresh upleg so that the formation is validated. Odds are that in spite of the tech-led upswing, the rally would continue. All that‘s required for today, is a not too disappointing non-farm payrolls figure, which would (in the market‘s mind) give the Fed some leevay in taking on inflation while not choking off economic growth (however decelerating). Optimal outcome would be a figure somewhat below expectations as that would enable speculation as to how far the Fed would move towards focus on growth (the Brainard view of things) and away from Powell‘s resolute (verbally resolute, to be precise – big difference) inflation fighter pose. Yesterday‘s Yellen admission on getting it wrong, is a preview of more hawkish monetary policies still ahead.
That‘s why I‘ve said that this rally wasn‘t sustainable, but it still has further to go. Treasuries aren‘t relenting in the pressure on the Fed to act, and the central bank would have to catch up. It‘s a question of time when this risk-on reprieve runs its course. Yesterday‘s turn in precious metals and copper is a preview of what such a Fed turn would imemdiately cause – helping the open positions mightily. And I‘m not even talking the sizable open profits in crude oil...
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Friday, June 03, 2022
What to Make of the Stock Market’s Bounce / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2022
By: EWI
"“For certain, there will be countertrend rallies"
The stock market selloff from March into the May low was comprised of eight straight weeks of decline in the Dow Industrials.
This was historic. The Dow Industrials have been around for 126 years and this was only the second time that the senior index suffered a decline for eight consecutive weeks. The other time was in 1923 -- also March into May.
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Thursday, June 02, 2022
Stocks Bear Market Bubble Trouble / Stock-Markets / Stocks Bear Market
By: The_Gold_Report
As month five of this bear market comes to an end, expert Michael Ballanger goes over some bear market stories that left him with battle scars and provides some insight on what to expect in the months ahead.
Month five of the Great 2022-202? Bear Market is almost complete so I thought you all might wish to hear a few “war stories” from past bear markets, some of which I endured while none of which I even vaguely enjoyed. First, I offer the MJB “primer”…
“The key to long-term profits on Wall Street is not making big killings; it’s not getting killed.”
—Daniel Turov
At the bottom of bear markets (or at the start of bull markets), stocks are like moored boats at low tide, resting on the sand desperately in need of the resurgent surf.
As markets turn, it is analogous to the tide roaring in and when it does, it lifts all boats, big and small, and it doesn’t care whether a vessel is leaking or whether it is tight. Warren Buffett coined a phrase that perfectly describes how bear markets expose flawed business models in heavily-pumped companies when he said, “Bear markets are like the tide going out; you soon learn who is swimming without trunks.”
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Thursday, June 02, 2022
Stock Market Hits Stall Speed Before Running / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2022
By: Monica_Kingsley
S&P 500 could still be building a bull flag on the daily chart, followed by an upswing tomorrow on non-farm payrolls. Who knows what kinds of adjustments would show that the real economy isn‘t decelerating all that badly? Markets might even conclude the contraction bullet would be avoided, and that the Fed won‘t need to go all in against inflation consequences be damned. Wrong, because if you look at Treasuries, the pressure on the Fed to raise (and dramatically so), is on – the dollar is turning up already on the prospect of higher yields. CPI inflation might have (temporarily) peaked, but inflation expectations (as measured by both the bond market and the respective ETF) haven‘t yet.
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Wednesday, June 01, 2022
Stock Market Risk-on Run / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2022
By: P_Radomski_CFA
S&P 500 didn‘t waver much even though credit markets did – the risk-on sentiment in stocks goes on even when faced with a dollar upswing (which was sold into). The defensive slant to the S&P 500 gains is evident as tech did better than value – and even energy stocks got hurt. This is short-term concerning for the oil bulls, but it would be premature to close the profitable longs just yet (even if short-term challenges would remain).
Precious metals are acting weak – the daily rise in yields and the dollar hurts. Second half of the year would be the best time for gold and silver as the focus shifts from (temporarily peaking) inflation to the inevitability of backing off tightening (turning accommodative again even) – till then, I‘m looking for lean weeks ahead, and that goes for copper as well. Crude oil remains supported by geopolitics, CRB Index continues trending nicely higher, and the threat of recession isn‘t breaking them.Notably, the market pressure on the Fed to raise, has slowed to a standstill in May – and that would support real assets going forward in the mid-term increasingly more.
Let‘s move right into the charts (all courtesy of www.stockcharts.com).
Tuesday, May 31, 2022
Stock Market Game Plan Ahead / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2022
By: Monica_Kingsley
S&P 500 did fine on Friday as well, and the long streak of weeks in red, is over (for now). The rally would continue for quite a while longer – after all, we indeed got the sign inflation made its peak with the May data. Also right on schedule, the top in yields came – coupled with some retail earnings, personal income and PCE data, the stock market rally could proceed. And it has further to go, quite further to go – before peaking and rolling over to fresh lows. Yes, I don‘t think we‘re looking at a fresh uptrend, there is still much stress (to be reflected in stock prices) in the consumer arena.
For now, the key question is the degree to which VIX calms down – would it be able to keep below 23-24 to extend the shelf life of this rally? And for how long would the lull in volatility last? I think the answer is a few short weeks, before it becomes obvious that the fundamentals haven‘t changed. The consumer remains in poor shape, inflation would remain stubbornly high (even as it had indeed peaked), and the credit default swaps for quite a few (consumer sensitive) companies are rising relentlessly, which isn‘t yet reflected in underlying stock prices. I‘m talking financials too – this broad stock market rally has more than a couple of percent higher to go before the weight pulls it back down, and earnings estimates get downgraded again.
In short, this is a false dawn, but it would feel like a fresh dawn. Counterintuitively, it would be accompanied by retreating yields – regardless of the persistent inflation. Remember also my words that the Fed won‘t be able to engineer a soft landing this time, I‘m not counting on that – the conditions are so much different macroeconomically now than they were in the mid-1990s, which was the last time they could pull it off. Just ask yourself how much slack in the job market is there, what about the peace dividend now and prospects for the brighter aspects of globalization. No, I‘m not buying that – this reprieve would give way to a fresh stock market downleg, manufacturing growth would crawl to a standstill, and that‘s when the central bank would be forced to back off tightening.
Sunday, May 29, 2022
Stock and Bond Markets Relief Rally / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2022
By: Gary_Tanashian
As inflation signals cool, various markets get relief
Whether a bounce or something more extended, a bear market rally was bound to get off the ground sooner or later. It was a matter of time, with stock market sentiment this over-bearish.
Here is how the US Stock Market segment led off last weekend in NFTRH 706:
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Sunday, May 29, 2022
Global Financial Elite in Davos Lust for New Powers / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2022
By: MoneyMetals
As global elites met in Davos this week to discuss their latest plans for a Great Reset, ordinary investors are hoping for a great rebound in their portfolios.
The stock market did finally bounce after suffering several consecutive weeks of losses. Whether it’s a just a short-lived relief rally or the start of something bigger remains to be seen.
The U.S. Dollar Index may also be gearing up for a run, but to the downside. After moving higher against foreign currencies for most the year, the dollar is now declining for a second consecutive week.
Dollar weakness helped support a modest rise in gold and silver prices.
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Sunday, May 29, 2022
Why the Timing of the Next Economic Slump May Surprise Big Time / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2022
By: EWI
"The stock market leads GDP," not the other way around
Do you recall how many government officials, economists or bankers anticipated the severity of the "Great Recession" before late 2007 into 2009?
Do you recall even one?
If a name doesn't come to mind, that's because hardly anyone of prominence provided a warning. Indeed, just the opposite.
Here's a March 29, 2007 NBC News headline:
U.S. economic growth revised up
Granted, this view by a group of economists was early in 2007, but still -- a historic stock market top was then only six months away and the start of the Great Recession was only eight months down the road.
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Saturday, May 28, 2022
Sell the Stocks Bear Market Bounce / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2022
By: Michael_Pento
Bear market bounces are violent yet short-lived. The latest excuse for an oversold rally was provided by JP Morgan's Jamie Dimon. The bank's CEO stated at Morgan's Investor Day Conference on Monday, May 23rd, that the US economy remains strong despite gathering storm clouds. He said, "I'm calling it storm clouds because they're storm clouds. They may dissipate." This was indicative of the typical vapid speech of the optimistic bank CEO. While he was at it, he also raised the bank's outlook for Net Interest Margin at the bank's conference, causing the usual parade of Dimon groupies to celebrate with orgasmic delight about his confidence in the economy.Perhaps Dimon is compelled to do his impression of PT Barnum because shares of JPM have lost 30% of their value so far this year. But before you believe Dimon is some economic oracle, listen to what he predicted about US economic growth on Jan. 11th when he publicly proclaimed his 2022 outlook, "We're going to have the best growth year we've ever had this year, I think, since maybe sometime after the Great Depression." He said this during a quarter that would later show to have shrunk at a 1.4% annualized rate. And that bad economic data didn't cease at the end of Q1. S&P Global US Composite PMI Output, which tracks the manufacturing and services sectors, fell to a reading of 53.8 in May, from a 56.0 reading in April, which means the economy is fast approaching contraction territory in Q2. A slew of manufacturing PMIs also supports the view that the US and, indeed the entire global economy is faltering. The plunging numbers on home purchases and refinancing activity indicate danger is ahead. Nevertheless, despite a parade of sharply declining economic data, the financial media is promoting the view of Wall Street analysts that earnings growth is actually going to be robust this year and next.
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Friday, May 27, 2022
Stocks: Is the Really Scary Part Just Ahead? / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2022
By: EWI
Here's one of the actions which investors take when they get "rattled"
Big daily selloffs have occurred since the stock market's downtrend began in January.
For instance, on May 18, the Dow Industrials closed lower by 1,161 points -- a 3.6% drop. The S&P 500 shed 4% on the same day.
Yet, most investors aren't exactly shaking in their boots. Panic is absent.
After the market close on May 18, the U.S. Short Term Update, a thrice weekly Elliott Wave International publication which analyzes near-term trends for major U.S. financial markets, showed this chart and said:
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Saturday, May 21, 2022
Why APPLE Could CRASH the Stock Market! / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2022
By: Nadeem_Walayat
Dear Reader
The earnings bloodbath materialised, that started on Tuesday with Google trading down to $2265, and ended on Friday with Amazon plunging down to a new low of $2425. With the two 'cheap' stocks Qualcom and Facebook rallying strongly post earnings. Virtually everything went according to the script of my last article i.e. "we could see Amazon trade to well under $2500, probably into the $2450 to $2300 support zone". The only odd one out was Apple that refused to budge much from $160, where my expectations remain is headed to below $142.
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Tuesday, May 17, 2022
What Should We Do If There Is No Fed Monetary Policy Pivot? / Stock-Markets / US Federal Reserve Bank
By: The_Gold_Report
While investors may have been betting on a Fed pivot, expert Michael Ballanger analyzes where we may find ourselves if they don't.
As a young and very brash “stock salesman” in the early 1980s (Note: Back then, they did not call us “wealth managers” or “investment professionals” or “advisors.”), I discovered a newsletter writer that was the best storyteller I have ever read, and his name was Richard Russell. The author and founder of the 1958 “Dow Theory Letters,” he rose to fame after calling the bottom of the horrendous 1973-1974 bear market in December of the terminal year resulting in a bombardment of catcalls and peer-pressure ridicule. Nobody—and I mean NOBODY—expected that stock prices were going to do anything but continue to crater and that was what made him such a beast.
As we do our collective best to weather this storm of selling pressure in what started as tech stocks but which has now migrated to literally everything, I am reminded of one of the more poignant “Russell-isms.” He said, “In a bear market, he who loses the least, wins.”
“My losses have taught me that I must not begin to advance until I am sure I shall not have to retreat.” — Edwin Lefevre
That phrase is the major portion of the reason that I advised subscribers on January 7th of this year, with the S&P 500 clipping above 4,800, that capital preservation was our primary focus and that volatility would dominate the investment landscape in 2022.
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Monday, May 16, 2022
NASDAQ 100 Stock Market LOWER LOWS & LOWER HIGH / Stock-Markets / Tech Stocks
By: Chris_Vermeulen
Following and trading on price can be compared to the reading of a good book. As we read each page, we acquire additional information that may give us a better understanding of the unfolding story.
The same is true of the market, as each day is like the reading of another page. The pages of a book make up chapters. These chapters in trading represent bull markets, bear markets, distribution and accumulation, and time frames of high and low volatility.
Unfortunately, in trading, we cannot skip to the end of the book to learn how everything turns out. However, as traders, we have learned that studying and remembering the past can pay great dividends.
Trading price in its rawest form is simply plotting and studying price without the use of moving averages, stochastics, RSI, or other technical indicators. This simplified but often overlooked methodology can offer everything a trader needs to be successful.
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Friday, May 13, 2022
What Happens When the Stock Market Dip Keeps Dipping? / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2022
By: EWI
These can "work tirelessly to keep investors trapped on the wrong side of a bearish trend"
It's been a rocky road for the Dow and the S&P 500 index since the start of the year. And, even longer for the NASDAQ, which topped back in November.
Indeed, speaking of technology stocks, some of the most popular names took a big beating in April alone. As the Wall Street Journal noted (April 29):
The FAANG stocks, consisting of the popular quintet of Facebook parent Meta Platforms, Apple, Amazon.com, Netflix and Google parent Alphabet, have collectively lost more than $1 trillion in market value [in April], the most since Facebook started trading in May 2012.
So, you might think that this bumpy ride in the stock market would have many investors at least considering moving to the sidelines, especially those with a sizeable nest egg to protect.
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Thursday, May 12, 2022
Apple and Microsoft Nuts Are About to CRACK and Send Stock Market Sharply Lower / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2022
By: Nadeem_Walayat
The earnings bloodbath materialised, that started on Tuesday with Google trading down to $2265, and ended on Friday with Amazon plunging down to a new low of $2425. With the two 'cheap' stocks Qualcom and Facebook rallying strongly post earnings. Virtually everything went according to the script of my last article i.e. "we could see Amazon trade to well under $2500, probably into the $2450 to $2300 support zone". The only odd one out was Apple that refused to budge much from $160, where my expectations remain is headed to below $142.
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Tuesday, May 10, 2022
Take Advantage When Markets Succumb to Fear / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2022
By: MoneyMetals
Last Wednesday’s rate hike by the Federal Reserve failed to convince investors that the central bank can tame inflation without wrecking the economy.
Subsequent remarks by Jerome Powell insisting that the economy isn’t vulnerable to recession were also unconvincing – especially given the Fed chairman’s lousy forecasting track record (“transitory” inflation has proven to be more like intractable inflation).
The good news for gold holders is that the safe-haven metal is holding up better than conventional financial assets. Stocks are breaking down at the same time as purportedly “risk-free” Treasury bonds are collapsing in value at a rate never before seen.
Sentiment gauges are showing extreme pessimism among the public. Most say the country is headed in the wrong direction and give President Joe Biden terrible marks for his handling of the economy.
Monday, May 09, 2022
The Stocks Stealth BEAR Market / Stock-Markets / Stocks Bear Market
By: Nadeem_Walayat
Dear Reader
The stock market continues to trend in line with my expectations for an mid April higher low that I am sure will be accompanied by maximum fears of a CRASH to NEW bear market lows, which without any road map would be ones natural instincts to expect, i.e. most market commentators tend to be bullish AFTER stocks have gone up and BEARISH AFTER stocks have fallen. Instead with a road map, I am not seeing any reason to not continue to expect stocks to bottom and then rally strongly into May and thus I wll continue accumulating target stocks as and when opportunities arise over the coming week whilst most will kick the can down the road out of fear of new lows.
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Saturday, May 07, 2022
Global Market Perspective Test-Drive - Dial In Your View of 50+ Global Markets / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2022
By: EWI
Hi,
You might agree that so far, not much about this year has been "normal."
- Normally, commodity prices don't leap to the moon
- Stocks don't sell off this hard in April
- And European countries don't engage in brutal wars
All of that to say: It's time to stop thinking "normal," and start thinking "new."
For that, you can't do better than Elliott waves. Just look at these 8 "before/after" charts from Global Market Perspective, a monthly publication by our friends at Elliott Wave International.
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Tuesday, May 03, 2022
PPT HALTS STOCK MARKET CRASH ahead of Fed May Interest Rate Hike Meeting / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2022
By: Nadeem_Walayat
Fed Plunge Protection Team HALTS Stock Market Crash in it's tracks, sending stocks sharply higher late MOnday ahead of this weeks Fed meeting.
There I was eagerly anticipating the BEAR signal for a potential stock market waterfall event on break of the S&P to NEW LOWS, Which happened! The S&P broke a NEW bear market low, jeronimo, or Jerome Powell, the S&P was off to at a quick rendezvous with 3900 and lower over subsequent days.
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Tuesday, May 03, 2022
Stock Market Volatility – Traders Must Adapt Or Risk Losing Their Shirts / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2022
By: Chris_Vermeulen
Market volatility remains elevated and may be setting the stage for spikes even higher than we have already experienced.
Global money is continuing to flow into the US Dollar making it one of the primary safe-haven trades. This may eventually trigger a broader and deeper selloff in U.S. stocks. As the USD continues to strengthen corporate profits for US multinationals will begin to disappear.
It’s imperative to assess your trading plan, portfolio holdings, and cash resources. Experienced traders know what their downside risk is and adapt as needed to the current market environment.
If you still have money invested in Amazon, Netflix, PayPal, or one of the many other stocks that are sinking fast there is no easy way out. Your options are:
- Hold tight and “hope” for a rally to recover part of your money.
- Reduce some of your position to “limit your downside” in case the bottom really falls out, and then sell the balance after a bounce of 5-8%.
- Move to cash, “bite the bullet”, get a good night’s sleep, take a break, reassess, and live to come back and trade another day.
Wednesday, April 27, 2022
The Spooky Mulder Stock Market - Best Shares Cash ISA for for Accumulating Cheap AI Tech Stocks / Stock-Markets / Tech Stocks
By: Nadeem_Walayat
Stock market price action is proving X files style spooky, not in terms of big price movement but rather that it is spookily following my trend expectation as of late March, unfortunately this is NOT AI generated for if it were I could sit back and retire, this is Deem generated of the trend picture in my mind late March of how things could play out during April and into May. A chart is much better than just text which is open to misinterpretation.
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Wednesday, April 27, 2022
Using Stock Market Comparison Analysis For An Edge / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2022
By: Chris_Vermeulen
Multi timeframe, as well as comparison analysis, have many benefits. As traders, we tend to utilize the shorter-term time frames to enter our trades and place our stops. But the BIG money is made from gleaning information from the longer-term charts. We would classify long term as monthly or weekly while short term would be a daily or 4-hour time frame.
Comparison analysis can be done by comparing different time periods or we can see how our market is trading vs another highly correlated market.
Since we have a lot of subscriber interest in stocks, we thought it might be time to compare the current chart of the SPY to the S&P 500 index during the 2002-2009 period. The S&P 500 weekly chart experienced a nice bull market with several buy points from 2002 up to 2007.
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Tuesday, April 26, 2022
FAANG Stocks Earnings Blood Bath - Google, Microsoft, Apple, Amazon, Facebook Buying Opportunities / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2022
By: Nadeem_Walayat
It's bear market big tech Q1 earnings week when we could see blood on the streets of silicon valley, as Google, Microsoft, Apple, Amazon, Qualcom and Intel all report their earnings, potential blood on the street buying opportunties that I and my patrons have been patiently waiting for the buying levels to be triggered as these charts from my early February article illustrate where the dominos could finally start falling as we seee a continuaiton of Friday's plunge on break of key support levels for the likes of Nvidia and Google, seeing big buying levels finally starting to get triggered in the latest phase of this stealth stocks bear market that is cycling through target stocks like the tasmanian devil where my focus was on Google as it finally broke below $2400, a level that I had long flagged to patrons of where I would be buying big and in advance of warned Patrons for several weeks not to jump the gun regardless of what the genernal indices were doing.
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Tuesday, April 26, 2022
3 Recession Indicators are Flashing Red… Here’s Why you Shouldn’t Panic / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2022
By: Stephen_McBride
The odds of a recession in the US just spiked considerably.
I’m not saying this to scare you…
That’s what three important recession indicators are saying today.
They’re all flashing “red”…
But as I’ll show you today, this isn’t the time to panic. Instead, it’s an opportunity.
I’ll explain in a moment. First, let’s look at each indicator:
Sunday, April 24, 2022
WE HAVE NO CHOICE BUT TO INVEST IN STOCKS AND HOUSING MARKET / Stock-Markets / Inflation
By: Nadeem_Walayat
This is why one has NO CHOICE but to be invested in price volatile assets such as stocks and housing which whilst yes will move up and down in value from tim to time like a yo yo nevertheless over he long-run will be leveraged to rampant government and central bank money printing inflation so we have NO CHOICE BUT TO BE INVESTED IN SUCH ASSETS! NO CHOICE WHATSOEVER FOR THE ALTERNATIVE IS CERTAIN DESTRUCTION OF ONES HARD EARNED WEALTH which is why the largest asset class I have held for near 10 years now is bricks and mortar UK housing regardless of what the price indices do from month to month, year to year, or the clowns proclaim about imminent deflationary crashes. There is NO CHOICE BUT TO BE HOLD ASSETS THAT ARE LEVERAGED TO INFLATION AS THE ALTERNATIVE IS ONE WILL LOSE THE VALUE OF ALL OF ONES HARD EARNED SAVINGS! Which is why whenever I am asked if now is a good time to buy property I tend to remind those asking that house prices are leveraged to inflation so regardless of the tripe in the clueless mainstream press of how UK housing is unaffordable, however inflation ensures that the overall trend trajectory remains upwards for the fundamental fact that unlike fiat currency houses cannot be printed and thus house prices have confounded the clownomics in the mainstream press by soaring into the stratosphere.
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Sunday, April 24, 2022
Fed Chairman Powell Spooks the Market by Signaling 50 Point Rate Hike / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2022
By: MoneyMetals
Tough talk from the Fed roiled markets this past week, with stocks as well as precious metals getting hit.
On Thursday, Federal Reserve chairman Jerome Powell said the central bank intends to pursue a more rapid pace of interest rate increases. He indicated that a 50-basis point hike in May is likely.
Jerome Powell: We really are committed to using our tools to get 2% inflation back and I think if you look at, for example, if you look at the last tightening cycle, which was a two-year string of 25 basis point hikes from 2004 to 2006, inflation was a little over 3%. So, inflation's much higher now and our policy rate is still more accommodating than it was then. So, it is appropriate, in my view, to be moving a little more quickly. And I also think there's something in the idea of front-end loading, whatever accommodation one thinks is appropriate. So, that does point in the direction of 50 basis points being on the table, certainly. We make these decisions at the meeting and we'll make them meeting by meeting, but I would say that 50 basis points will be on the table for the May meeting.
Thursday, April 21, 2022
Stock Market Turning Around for Good? / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2022
By: Monica_Kingsley
S&P 500 rose incessantly during the regular session but bonds don‘t yet confirm the decline would be over. So much hawkish noise (75bp hike next?), and tech keeps rising? Still a peculiar case of strength but a daily rotation out of energy stocks into tech can‘t be denied. I wouldn‘t yet jump to conclusions about lastingly improving market breadth though. The S&P 500 upswing may just take a few days more to run its course as the tightening heat hasn‘t yet played out. Powell talking tomorrow is a nice opportunity. Real assets will find it easy to recover from yesterday‘s daily setback – they had plenty of opportunities to decline before Feb 24th, yet tellingly didn‘t...
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Thursday, April 21, 2022
Global Stock Market Trends Continue To Push US Dollar & US Assets Higher / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2022
By: Chris_Vermeulen
Every day seems filled with some new comment or data point that suggests the Global Market or the US Fed will aggressively attempt to burst the inflation bubble. Global central banks continue to warn that COVID, and other issues, persist. Traders seek some clarity and understanding of what’s going to happen next.
Will The US Stock Market Continue To Rally Higher?
Allow us to help you understand what is happening behind all these data points and news posts. We can understand key market components better by using specialized modeling systems that aim to distill market events into relatable trigger events within our strategies. This, in turn, helps us to better understand what may come next for the US markets.
We’ll focus on some of our Custom Indexes to better illustrate current market trends and conditions. These are examples of our Custom Smart Cash Index (a more global market custom index), our Commodity Price Index, and our Custom US Index (a focused US Custom Index).
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Wednesday, April 20, 2022
This Usually Spells Trouble for the Stock Market (It's Happening Now) / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2022
By: EWI
"Even short term, diverging trends can signal an unhealthy market"
If you've been an investor for any appreciable length of time, no doubt you've noticed that all of the stock market indexes usually move in unison.
For example, when the Dow Industrials rally, the S&P 500 and NASDAQ usually do so too -- the same applies during a broad downtrend.
As the April 8 U.S. Short Term Update, a thrice weekly Elliott Wave International publication which provides near-term forecasts for key U.S. financial markets, notes:
Think of the final days of [the big down wave] in March 2009, at the end of the Dow's 54% decline from October 2007. Nearly every stock index made a low within days of March 9, 2009 -- blue chips, technology, small caps, transports, secondary stock indexes -- and all rallied in unison thereafter.
However, when stock indexes begin to diverge, this is usually a sign that the existing trend is about to reverse.
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Tuesday, April 19, 2022
THE INFLATION MONSTER is Forecasting RECESSION / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2022
By: Nadeem_Walayat
Dear Reader
What if you could know the future, had a chart of the stock market that showed a high probability trend forecast into the middle of May 2022. We'll that's what my Patrons got in a market brief at the end of March 2022, a trend forecast right into the middle of May 2022.
Latest Update - The Stocks Stealth BEAR Market, AI Stocks Buying Levels Going Into Earnings
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Tuesday, April 19, 2022
Inflation, Commodities and Interest Rates : Paradigm Shifts in Macrotrends / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2022
By: Rambus_Chartology
There are just a few times in ones investing career, depending how early you start and if you survive long enough, that you are witness to some extraordinary changes from the MACRO scale perspective. A few examples would be the beginning of the 1929 crash, the end of the secular bull market that was made in 2000 that began in 1974, the 1987 crash which is still the biggest one day percentage drop in stock market history of 23%. Then there was the banking and housing bubble that collapsed into the 2009 crash low which launched our current secular bull market in the stock markets which is now 13 years old.
Then there are more subtle changes in the macro world that are very rare which most investors or even economist don’t have the ability to recognize until they are well established. Eventually the change of trend is so great that one has to accept the fact and recognize it for what it is. In the beginning of a macro shift few believe it is really happening because the trend has been in place for so long that it seems normal and that is how markets work.
What I would like to show you today are several rare macro events that are going to change the world and in ways we may not understand right now, but changes are coming whether we like it or not. To think one person or a group of people can wave their magic wand and make everything the way it was before are in for a rude awakening. We are just now witnessing the birth of these macro trends that are going to be with us for many years into the future.
It is always hard in the beginning because most people don’t understand the changes and lash out to those in charge thinking they can make things right, but again that is wishful thinking. After a period of time has lapsed there will be an adjustment period and a new norm will be established. For those that understand the macro shifts will do well with their investments, but for those that are unwilling to adapt to the new environment will find it much harder and blame everyone and everything for their underperformance or outright failure.
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Tuesday, April 19, 2022
Around the World's Risks and Opportunities with Elliott Waves / Stock-Markets / Elliott Wave Theory
By: EWI
Hi,
A "smart" investor knows more than how to pick a stock. Truly smart investors look at stocks...and bonds...and cryptos...and commodities -- to understand the BIG picture.
Only then a certain wisdom emerges that helps you make truly informed, truly smart decisions.
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Monday, April 18, 2022
Stock Market FOMO Gives Way to FEAR of Buying the Dip / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2022
By: Nadeem_Walayat
Stock Market Investor FOMO of barely a month ago on expectation of a blow off top that most clinged onto during the first few weeks of this sell off is now increasingly giving way to FEAR of an inexplicable never ending slide into the depths of a 2000 style bear market. We'll the Cathy Wood style stocks have been on that path for approaching a year now so perhaps not much downside in those, then again they still are what they were a year ago, NO EARNINGS GARBAGE!
However FEAR is infectious especially for the weak hands, those who where once eager to buy now FEAR perpetual falling prices that results in a state of paralysis. THIS IS WHAT IT ACTUALLY FEELS LIKE TO INVEST IN A FALLING MARKET! Something that is not apparent when looking at the price charts at tops and bottoms where one could easily have bought and sold with the be benefit of hindsight, yeah we'll maybe if one switched OFF the information flow that generates the GREED and FEAR that encourages buying at the top and inaction at the bottom!
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Monday, April 18, 2022
The Witchy Trio: Commodities Supercycle, Inflation, and… Recession? / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2022
By: Submissions
If the current market phenomena were to star in a Shakespeare drama, they would be ideal candidates for the Three Witches. Can you guess who would play who?
Have you ever heard of Shakespeare’s mythological characters, the Three Witches? They are depicted as prophets who represent evil, darkness, chaos, and conflict.
If you look at the market today, you will find ideal candidates for these dark roles. However, while rising commodity prices and inflation have a casting win in their pocket, there is no certain actor to play the third witch. Would the recession stand a chance?
No Easter eggs today – instead, here is a story that may provide food for thought.
Sunday, April 17, 2022
Stocks Bear Market Trend Forecast Into Mid May 2022 / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2022
By: Nadeem_Walayat
What if you could know the future, had a chart of the stock market that showed a high probability trend forecast into the middle of May 2022. We'll that's what my Patrons got in a market brief at the end of March 2022, a trend forecast right into the middle of May 2022.
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Saturday, April 16, 2022
Stock Market Trend Forecast Into Mid May 2022, AI Stocks Portfolio Update / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2022
By: Nadeem_Walayat
What if you could know the future, had a chart of the stock market that showed a high probability trend forecast into the middle of May 2022. We'll that's what my Patrons got in a market brief at the end of March 2022, a trend forecast right into the middle of May 2022 -
Whilst my last market brief signaled to expect a strong April to be punctuated by an imminent correction into early April before the final forecast push higher into a May high that the following chart of the S&P better visualises of what I have in mind in terms of how the trend could play out.
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Thursday, April 14, 2022
Stocks Bear Market About to Resume? / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2022
By: Nadeem_Walayat
Tthe stock market rally that had the the bulls salivating is probably coming to and end, and thus the direction of travel over the coming days should be lower as the Dow continues to target $31k. In terms of the bear market we will probably eventually see the Dow gravitate to below $30k, how low and in what time frame requires in-depth analysis which I will focus on next after housing. In the meantime, This is the type of trend I warned to expect, VERY VOLATILE as investors gyrate between FEAR and GREED. A sell off now could set the scene for a strong April i.e. off a higher end March / early April low rather than a break to new bear market lows.
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Thursday, April 14, 2022
What a Brutal Bear Market Brings Besides Crashing Stock Prices / Stock-Markets / Stocks Bear Market
By: EWI
"When social mood is negative, rallies, marches and protests become common events"
Sure, it's highly important to get out of value-losing risk assets before the onset of a big bear market.
No analytical method offers a guarantee; however, our experience shows that if you follow the message of the Elliott wave model, you'll have a good chance of protecting your wealth during the next financial downturn.
Having said that, there's more to a severe bear market than collapsing investment prices. Keep in mind that the shift from a positive to a negative social mood -- which brings on a financial bear market -- also brings on an array of societal problems.
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Wednesday, April 13, 2022
Stocks – Uncertainty Ahead of Quarterly Earnings Season / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2022
By: Paul_Rejczak
Stocks fluctuated following their recent decline on Tuesday and the S&P 500 index closed slightly below the 4,400 level. Is this still just a downward correction?The S&P 500 index lost 0.34% on Tuesday following its Monday’s decline of 1.7%. There is still a lot of uncertainty concerning the Ukraine conflict and Fed’s monetary policy tightening plans. On Monday it led to a more pronounced profit-taking action. However, the coming quarterly earnings releases season may be a positive factor in the near term. This morning the broad stock market is expected virtually flat following the Producer Price Index release.
The nearest important resistance level is now at around 4,475-4,500, marked by the recent support level and Monday’s daily gap down. On the other hand, the support level is at 4,350-4,400. The S&P 500 index retraced more of its March rally, as we can see on the daily chart (chart by courtesy of http://stockcharts.com):
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Wednesday, April 13, 2022
Utilities Rising & Transporters Sinking – Sector Rotation Is Providing Clues / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2022
By: Chris_Vermeulen
Historically, investors gravitate toward more defensive and commodity-focused sectors, such as precious metals, energy, commodities, and utilities, in late-cycle bull markets.
Recently, the stock market is beginning to show us signs that the bull market may be coming to an end. Commodities such as energy, grains, and precious metals have all experienced nice rallies. Price action also confirms money flow coming out of transports and into utilities.
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Sunday, April 10, 2022
Stocks Bear Market Trend Forecast Current State / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2022
By: Nadeem_Walayat
We are in for a volatile trend with a downwards bias for much of 2022, as I wrote to expect on the 5th of Dec 2021 accompanied by revised trend forecast graph.
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Sunday, April 10, 2022
New Biden Tax & Spend Plan Throws Gasoline on Inflation Bonfire / Stock-Markets / Inflation
By: MoneyMetals
As the Federal Reserve ramps up its rhetoric on rate hikes, precious metals markets continue to consolidate.
Gold and silver showed some signs of basing out and readying to moving higher with a rally on Thursday. As of this Friday recording, gold prices come in at $1,951 an ounce – up 0.9% for the week. Silver, meanwhile, is putting in a slight weekly gain of 0.3% to trade at $24.97 per ounce.
Turning to the platinum group metals, they have been slumping on late. Platinum is off 1.6% this week to trade at $1,000. And palladium, which is putting in a big advance here today of +$200 so far, is up a robust 7.4% this week to command $2,499 per ounce.
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Saturday, April 09, 2022
Stock Market in the Eye of the Storm, Visualising AI Tech Stocks Buying Levels / Stock-Markets / Investing 2022
By: Nadeem_Walayat
What if you could know the future, had a chart that showed you how the stock market could trend into the middle of May 2022, how much value would you put on it? More than $4 bucks?
We'll that's what my Patrons got in a market brief at the end of March 2022, a trend forecast based on Deem neurons right into the middle of May 2022 that so far has spooky Mulder style tracked the S&P quite accurately.
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Wednesday, April 06, 2022
My 3 Favorite Trade Setups / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2022
By: EWI
Hi,
Millions of people have joined the ranks of online traders since the start of the pandemic, and you may be one of them. Or maybe you've been trading for years already...
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Tuesday, April 05, 2022
Stock Market Sentiment Speaks: What If They Held A Recession And No One Showed Up? / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2022
By: Avi_Gilburt
I have now been writing for well over a decade on Seeking Alpha. And, during that time, I have tried to enlighten readers as to how I see the market machinations take shape, especially as compared to the common views held by most market participants. So, there's large body of work I have compiled and written on this topic.
This week, I'm taking the opportunity to compile it all into a three-article series. So, please do bear with me as I'm going to be presenting you with a lot of information, most of which has been culled from my many articles and my recent keynote address at the Las Vegas MoneyShow convention. After I complete that presentation, I will provide you with my thoughts on an “impending recession.”
I want to begin by explaining that much of what you have been taught regarding the market is likely false. I know that's quite a bold statement to make, but I can back it up with examples, market research, and market history.
You see, just as many of you have done, I began my investing career on the fundamentals side of the market. For those who may not know my background, allow me to explain the qualifications with which I initially approached the markets. I graduated college with a dual major in both economics and accounting. I went on to pass all four parts of the CPA exam in one sitting, something that only 2% of those taking the exam are able to achieve. I then went on to complete law school in two and a half years, and graduated ***** laude and in the top 5% of my class. I then went on to NYU for a Master of Law in taxation. I became a partner and national director at a major national firm at a very young age, where I worked to organize very large transactions. So, when I tell you that I understand the fundamentals of economics, business, and balance sheets, you can believe me.
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Sunday, April 03, 2022
Germany's DAX: What You Can Learn from the 2007 Stock Market Top / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2022
By: EWI
Why investors should be aware of a divergence between stock prices and consumer confidence
Among the scores of stock market indicators, there's at least one that may be off many investors' radar screens.
And, that is the trend in consumer confidence. Specifically, a peak in consumer confidence tends to precede a peak in the stock market.
With that in mind, back on Nov. 25, the Telegraph said:
Consumer confidence has dropped sharply in Germany. ...
A few days later, the December Global Market Perspective, a monthly Elliott Wave International publication which offers coverage of 50-plus worldwide financial markets, provided a retrospective of Germany's DAX and consumer confidence with this chart and commentary:
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Friday, April 01, 2022
Can Tracking Global Money Flow Provide Clues To Stay In The Black? / Stock-Markets / Financial Crisis 2022
By: Chris_Vermeulen
According to The Bank of International Settlements, the global foreign currency exchange (FX) daily transactional turnover averages $6.6 trillion. At Technical Traders, we track a variety of markets, asset classes, and global money flow looking for clues that will help us in our quest for ETF returns. Interestingly when foreign exchange is charted as a benchmark to the SPY (S&P 500), we can see that FX has also been in a risk-on environment for the past 2-years.
Recently we looked at volatility utilizing the CBOE Volatility Index known as VIX. But there are alternative ways or tools that we can use to analyze asset prices.
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Wednesday, March 30, 2022
How the "Great Resignation" Ties in with a Financial Peak / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2022
By: EWI
Insights into "a peak in social optimism of monumental proportions"
Some people probably remember that country song by Johnny Paycheck from the late '70s -- "Take This Job and Shove It."
Many of those in the younger generations may not have heard of it given the song was released more than 40 years ago. However, many of them caught the spirit of it just the same as they quit their jobs in droves in what has been called the "Great Resignation."
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Tuesday, March 29, 2022
Who Benefits Most From the Russia-Ukraine War? / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2022
By: Submissions
With the unrest in the Black Sea basin, it appears that there are two more cross-trade wars in the world. These are about energy and currency.
Crude oil prices, down most of Friday, finally ended the week higher after a huge fire broke out at oil facilities in Jeddah, Saudi Arabia, following attacks by Yemeni rebels.
The great winner of the Russian-Ukrainian conflict is undoubtedly the United States, which now seems to be taking advantage of Europe’s moment of weakness.
Tuesday, March 29, 2022
Stocks: Should We Expect More Upside? / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2022
By: Paul_Rejczak
Stocks extended their short-term uptrend on Friday, but this week we may see some more uncertainty and a possible profit-taking action.The S&P 500 index gained 0.53% on Friday following its Thursday’s advance of 1.4%. The broad stock market’s gauge extended its short-term uptrend after breaking above the 4,500 level. It gained over 380 points from the Mar. 14 local low of around 4,162. There have been no confirmed negative signals so far. However, we may see another correction and a profit-taking action at some point.
There’s still a lot of uncertainty concerning the ongoing Ukraine conflict, but investors were recently jumping back into stocks despite that geopolitical uncertainty. This morning the index is expected to open virtually flat after an overnight advance followed by its retracement.
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Monday, March 28, 2022
Volatility Retreats As Stocks & Commodities Rally / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2022
By: Chris_Vermeulen
The CBOE Volatility Index (VIX) is a real-time index. It is derived from the prices of SPX index options with near-term expiration dates that are utilized to generate a 30-day forward projection of volatility. The VIX allows us to gauge market sentiment or the degree of fear among market participants. As the Volatility Index VIX goes up, fear increases, and as it goes down, fear dissipates.
Commodities and equities are both showing renewed strength on the heels of global interest rate increases. Inflation shows no sign of abating as energy, metals, food products, and housing continues their upward bias.
During the last 18-months, the VIX has been trading between its upper resistance of 36.00 and its lower support of 16.00. As the Volatility Index VIX falls, fear subsides, and money flows back into stocks.
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Friday, March 25, 2022
Quantum AI Tech Stocks Bear Market Buying Levels / Stock-Markets / Quantum AI Tech Stocks
By: Nadeem_Walayat
This is how I expect things to play out over the next few weeks -
The prime candidates for busting to new lows are - Nvidia, AMAT, Facebook, Tesla, LRCX, ASM, MSFT, MED,
Stocks that could hold their lows are AMD, AVGO, iNTEL, QCOM, TSM but it's 50/50.
Whilst Google and Amazon have settled into trading ranges, i.e. it is a tough ask to expect new lows given their recent powerful rallies on the back of strong earnings.
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Monday, March 21, 2022
Is the Fed trying to blow another, more covert asset bubble? / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2022
By: Chris_Vermeulen
The asset bubble that almost ended in Q1 2020 was rescued by two main saviors, 1) unsustainable bearish (no, terrorized) sentiment and even more so, 2) balls out central bank inflation, led by the US Federal Reserve. The resulting bubble leg was in the bag from the moment the dovish Fed made its first headline about asset purchases and rate cuts.
This latest leg of the asset bubble has been under stress in 2022, as the supposed reflection of ‘good’ inflation, the stock market (SPX), has trended down all year. More recently, commodities and precious metals have gotten dinged as well after spiking upward on the Russia/Ukraine war, which exacerbated the Fed’s inflation (as manufactured in Q1-Q2 2020) after the inflationary effects on commodity prices were already exacerbated by pandemic-related supply chain issues.
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Sunday, March 20, 2022
Dow Stock Market Trend Forecast Current State / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2022
By: Nadeem_Walayat
We are in for a volatile trend with a downwards bias for much of 2022, as I wrote to expect on the 5th of Dec 2021 accompanied by revised trend forecast graph.
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Sunday, March 20, 2022
US Fed Announces Minimum Interest Rate Hike, Spooked by Ukraine War Impact / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2022
By: MoneyMetals
Dysfunctional U.S. Mint Runs Out of Silver Blanks Again, Halting Sales of Some Items - Precious metals markets sold off ahead of this week’s Federal Reserve policy meeting. But after Fed officials announced their rate hike, prices recovered somewhat.
Another market that has gone haywire is nickel. It’s not a metal that typically drives headlines, but prices swung so violently in futures markets that trading had to be halted for the first time in 24 years.
Nickel prices doubled in matter of hours last week. An institutional trader had placed big bets that nickel prices would fall and was forced to cover, or buy back, his short positions. An epic short squeeze ensued, followed by a massive sell-off this week.
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Friday, March 18, 2022
China Stock Market Selling Pressure Could Be Over, Now What? / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2022
By: Chris_Vermeulen
THE SHANGHAI COMPOSITE INDEX HAS DROPPED MORE
THAN 40% FROM ITS PEAK IN JUST 2 ½ MONTHS!
China Stocks: This morning bottom pickers around the globe are snatching up what they believe to be “bargain basement priced stocks” as the Hang Seng Index gained 9.1% during today’s March 16, 2022 trading session. It was the best day for the HSI since the 2008 financial crisis as the Chinese government pledged to support markets.
Tensions are running high as Chinese nickel giant Tsingshan Holding Group, the world’s biggest producer of nickel used in stainless steel and electric-vehicle batteries was sitting on $8 billion in trading losses.
According to the Wall Street Journal on March 9, 2022 “The London Metal Exchange suspended the nickel market early last Tuesday, the first time it had paused trading in a metal contract since the collapse of an international tin cartel in 1985. The decision followed a near doubling in prices over a few hours.”
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Wednesday, March 16, 2022
Stock Market Sentiment Speaks: OMG - It's A Bear Market / Stock-Markets / Stocks Bear Market
By: Avi_Gilburt
This week, I am going to give you a two-for-one in this update. I am going to provide an update to my last TLT article, as well as a quick update to my market perspective.
But, first, I want to provide you some quotes that I have seen over the past week from just within the comment section of my last article:
“Recession fears, and stagflation fears are building”
“it looks like market has unlimited supply of sellers”
“This could be just the beginning of a 2000-2002 period (growth stock "reset"). 2200-3400 is absolutely possible. In fact, 3400 is highly probable.”
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Tuesday, March 15, 2022
Are Rising Oil Prices Sending Stocks into a Downtrend? / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2022
By: EWI
See a time when the economy revived as oil prices doubled
A long-held assumption is that "oil shocks" or dramatically rising oil prices are bearish for stocks.
Look at these headlines:
- Dow slides nearly 800 points as oil hits $120 a barrel (Washington Post, March 7)
- Why soaring oil prices could soon make the stock market sputter (Marketwatch, October 2021)
As you might imagine, if observers assume that dramatically rising oil prices make the stock market decline, they also believe the reverse, namely, a drop in oil prices makes the stock market climb.
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Saturday, March 12, 2022
Stock Market S&P 500 – Should We Buy the Dip? / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2022
By: Paul_Rejczak
Stock prices remain very volatile, as the Ukraine conflict keeps dominating headlines. Will the market reverse its downtrend?
The S&P 500 index gained 2.57% on Wednesday, Mar. 9, as it retraced some of the recent decline. The broad stock market’s gauge got back to the 4,300 level after bouncing from its Tuesday’s low of 4,157.87. On Feb. 24 the index fell to the local low of 4,114.65 and it was 704 points or 14.6% below the January 4 record high of 4,818.62. There’s still a lot of uncertainty concerning the ongoing Ukraine conflict. This morning the S&P 500 index is expected to open 1.3% lower and we may see further consolidation.
Saturday, March 12, 2022
Don’t Panic—here’s how Stock Markets historically perform during Wars / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2022
By: Stephen_McBride
Last week, I was part of a private discussion with Marko Papic…If you don’t know the name, few people on earth are as qualified to talk about how the war in Ukraine will affect stocks as Marko.
He’s been studying geopolitics and markets for more than a decade. He wrote the book Geopolitical Alpha: An Investment Framework for Predicting the Future.
During the discussion, he said, “You should just buy every time there is a geopolitical conflict. There’s only 1 out of around 80 events where this isn’t the case.”
That assertion shocked me…
With the war in Ukraine raging on, I wanted to take it a step further, so you know exactly what to expect during these volatile times.
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Thursday, March 10, 2022
Stock Market ‘BUY THE DIP’ or ‘SELL THE RALLY’? / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2022
By: Chris_Vermeulen
To minimize trading risk and grow capital during a global crisis is somewhat hinged on the answers to speculative questions. How long will the Russia – Ukraine war last? How high is the price of oil and gas going to go? How quickly will central banks raise interest rates to counter high inflation? What assets should I put my money into? Knowing what the Best Asset Now (BAN) is, is critical for risk management and consistent growth no matter the market condition!
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Wednesday, March 09, 2022
Is Russia Ukraine War Negative for the Stock Market? / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2022
By: EWI
Here's what really drives the trends of global stock markets
Let's first state the obvious: war is tragic as it brings death and destruction.
But does war make the stock market go down?
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Monday, March 07, 2022
M = F - Everything is Waving! Stock Market Forward Guidance / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2022
By: Nadeem_Walayat
Dear Reader
The Ukrainian people have sleep walked into a nightmare that they did not see coming, neither did much of that which purports to be the mainstream press. However my consistent view since late January (AI Stocks Multi Buying Levels to Capitalise on the Stock Market Panic of 2022) has been that -
a. Russia WILL invade Ukraine.
b. That Putin wants the WHOLE of Ukraine.
c. That Putin is prepared to destroy the WHOLE of Ukraine, flatten every city to achieve victory.
And then we had the risk of Putin using tactical nuclear weapons if the war did not go his way.
And after the war comes the Moldova War and Putin could even target NATO baltic states!
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Monday, March 07, 2022
Stock Market Peculiar Reversal / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2022
By: Monica_Kingsley
S&P 500 recovered most of the intraday downside, and in spite of value driving the upswing, there is something odd about it. Tech barely moved higher during the day, and the heavyweights continue being beaten similarly to biotech compared to the rest of healthcare. The key oddity though was in the risk-off posture in bonds, and the Treasuries upswing that Nasdaq failed to get inspired with.
If TLT has a message to drive home after the latest Powell pronouncements, it‘s that the odds of a 50bp rate hike in Mar (virtual certainty less than two weeks ago, went down considerably) – it‘s almost a coin toss now, and as the FOMC time approaches, the Fed would probably grow more cautious (read dovish and not hawkish) in its assessments, no matter the commodities appreciation or supply chains status. Yes, neither of these, nor inflation is going away before the year‘s end – they are here to stay for a long time to come.
Looking at the events of late, I have to dial back the stock market outlook when it comes to the degree of appreciation till 2022 is over – I wouldn‘t be surprised to see the S&P 500 to retreat slightly vs. the Jan 2022 open. Yes, not even the better 2H 2022 prospects would erase the preceding setback.
Sunday, March 06, 2022
"Shooting Stars" of the Stock Market: "Don’t Be Fooled by This" / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2022
By: EWI
"A funny thing happened on the way to the revolution"
A meme stock has been defined as “the shares of a company that have gained a cult-like following online and through social media platforms.”
This “following” is largely comprised of novice investors who hope to make a quick profit. You may remember two well-publicized examples of meme stocks back in 2021: Gamestop and AMC Entertainment. There have been others.
Well, Robinhood Markets has been described as “the brokerage behind the meme stock revolution.”
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Sunday, March 06, 2022
S&P 500 At Tipping Point To Start A Stocks Bear Market / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2022
By: Chris_Vermeulen
Is a bear market on the way? My research suggests the downward sloping trend line (LIGHT ORANGE in the Daily/Weekly SPY chart below) may continue to act as solid resistance – possibly prompting a further breakdown in the markets for US major indexes.
As we’ve seen recently, news and other unexpected events prompt very large price volatility events in the US major indexes. For example, the VIX recently rose above 30 again, which shows volatility levels are currently 3x higher than normal levels.
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Friday, March 04, 2022
Stock Market Calm In the Eye of the Inflation Storm / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2022
By: Nadeem_Walayat
A quick recap on the state of play (saving time by using existing charts) in terms of my trend expectations as of September 2021 for the Dow to correct form early January to at least Mid February, which my CI18 Switch of 5th Dec deepened somewhat.
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Wednesday, March 02, 2022
See what's next for Europe and US WAR Markets / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2022
By: EWI
Hi Reader,
You are probably wondering what war in Ukraine means for the markets. Instead of trying to deconstruct a never-ending barrage of mostly useless information, you can let our friends at Elliott Wave International help.
Now through March 7, they are offering you practical, objective answers in two events running concurrently:
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Tuesday, March 01, 2022
Russia Sanctions Puts Global Financial System on the Brink / Stock-Markets / Financial Crisis 2022
By: MoneyMetals
The global financial system is on the brink of being thrown into chaos.The United States and Europe moved to target Russian central bank reserves and sever the country’s banking system from the SWIFT global financial network.
It is the financial equivalent of the nuclear option – something the Biden administration had explicitly declined to invoke last week before abruptly announcing the move on Saturday.
Moscow considers it to be an act of war. An increasingly bellicose Russian President Vladimir Putin could retaliate against the U.S. and its allies in a number of ways, including cutting off energy supplies, launching cyber-attacks on financial institutions, and further partnering with China to create alternative payments platforms that challenge U.S. dollar hegemony. Read full article... Read full article...
Tuesday, March 01, 2022
Told You, Stock Market Risk On / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2022
By: Monica_Kingsley
S&P 500 erased opening downside, not unexpectedly. Markets say we‘ve turned the corner, and while the medium-term correction isn‘t over, we‘re going higher for now. The tired performance in credit markets suggests that the pace of the upswing would indeed likely slow, but the dips are being bought – even the 4,300 overnight level held unchallenged.
VIX is slowly calming down, and it wouldn‘t be a one-way ride. I hate to say it, but we‘re trading closer to the more complacent end of the volatility spectrum – that‘s though in line with my assumption of toned down price appreciation expectations that I discussed on Sunday and yesterday:
(…) While we made local lows on Thursday after all, the upside momentum is likely to slow down next – this week would bring a consolidation within a very headline sensitive environment. It‘s looking good for the bulls at the moment – till the dynamic of events beyond markets changes.
Inflation isn‘t wavering, and I‘m not looking for its meaningful deceleration given the events since Thursday, no. Friday is likely to mark a buying opportunity beyond oil and copper – these longs have very good prospects. Another part of the S&P 500 upswing explanation were the still fine fresh orders data – while the real economy has noticeably decelerated (and Q1 GDP growth would be underwhelming), solid figures would return in the latter quarters of 2022. That‘s also behind the gold downswing on Friday, which hadn‘t been confirmed by the miners – the very bright future ahead for precious metals is undisputable. And the same goes for crude oil as oil stocks foretell – the fresh long crude trade together with long S&P 500 one, are both solidly in the black already.
Monday, February 28, 2022
Stocks: Why This "Trend Following" Indicator is Worth Watching / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2022
By: EWI
This "is compatible with a stock market that has further to decline"
Large Speculators are a sector of traders monitored by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission and are comprised mainly of hedge fund managers and trend followers.
History shows that this group of traders is usually wrong at key market turns.
The Commercials, which you might call the "smart money," is another sector of traders monitored by the CFTC. They usually take positions opposite that of Large Speculators and are usually right.
This indicator is especially useful when the positions that Large Speculators and Commercials have established reach extremes at the same time a market's Elliott wave pattern suggests a trend turn is nigh.
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Friday, February 25, 2022
Consumer Retail May Suffer A -60% Collapse, Housing May Contract Faster Than Expected / Stock-Markets / Financial Crisis 2022
By: Chris_Vermeulen
I discussed the potential for the invasion into Ukraine with a friend over the past few days and how this new war may change the global economy. We ended up discussing the Invasion of Kuwait that took place in August 1990. At that time, as soon as the Invasion of Kuwait started, consumers almost immediately changed their spending and financial habits.
Suddenly, people stopped going out to dinner after work. They stopped going out for drinks. They also stopped playing computer games and spending money on most outside entertainment (movies and movie rentals – back in the Blockbuster days). In short, consumers became fascinated by the televised war and lost focus on almost everything else.
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Thursday, February 24, 2022
Stock Market More Selling Begins / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2022
By: Monica_Kingsley
S&P 500 reprieve that wasn‘t – the buyers didn‘t arrive, and the overnight military action sparking serious asset moves, shows that buying the dip would have been a bad idea. And it still is. Risk-on assets are likely to suffer, and I‘m not looking for a sharp, V-shaped rebound. The partial retracement seen in cryptos wouldn‘t translate to much upside in paper assets – it will likely be sold into as the bottom would take time to form. The safe haven premium seen in precious metals, crude oil and other real assets would ebb and flow, but a higher base has been established. The world has changed overnight, and recognition thereof is still pending.
I think it‘s clear why I had been derisking as much as possible, wary of volatility both ways in paper assets, and betting instead on a mix of real assets. This has been hugely paying off to subscribers and readers likewise favoring gold and crude oil with some copper added for good measure.
Monday, February 21, 2022
Dow Max Drawdown Bear Stock Market 2022 - Accumulating Deviations from the Highs / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2022
By: Nadeem_Walayat
Dear Reader
Did you get a good heads up warning of the BEAR MARKETS current down phase BEFORE it began?
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Monday, February 21, 2022
Why the "60 / 40 Balance" May Be Hazardous to Your Stocks Portfolio / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2022
By: EWI
Notice the similar pattern between these two bond charts
Financial advisors have long advocated a mix of 60% stocks / 40% bonds to cushion portfolios from downturns in the stock market.
The thinking is that stocks go up in the long-term, hence, that's where investors should allocate the most. At the same time, advisors acknowledge that stock prices can sometimes go down so "less risky" bonds will provide at least some protection.
The problem with this investment strategy is that bonds can go into bear markets too. Moreover, they can do so at the same time as stocks.
Let's review what happened during the Great Depression of the early 1930s. Here's a chart and commentary from Robert Prechter's 2021 Last Chance to Conquer the Crash:
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Saturday, February 19, 2022
Dow Stock Market Expected Max Drawdown 2022 / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2022
By: Nadeem_Walayat
My timely analysis (HOW TO SUCCESSFULLY INVEST IN STOCKS During 2022 and Beyond) that laid the ground work for how to invest during the anticipated waves of deep deviations from the highs in each of the stocks one by one that concluded in the following table of how low I expected each of the stocks to trade down to as a guide to where to target he bulk of ones planned buying in favour of those stocks that presented the greatest low to high potential price move.
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Friday, February 18, 2022
Stock Market Trend Forecast Current State / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2022
By: Nadeem_Walayat
My timely analysis (HOW TO SUCCESSFULLY INVEST IN STOCKS During 2022 and Beyond) that laid the ground work for how to invest during the anticipated waves of deep deviations from the highs in each of the stocks one by one that concluded in the following table of how low I expected each of the stocks to trade down to as a guide to where to target he bulk of ones planned buying in favour of those stocks that presented the greatest low to high potential price move.
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Friday, February 18, 2022
Crypto Will Devour the Stock Market / Stock-Markets / cryptocurrency
By: Stephen_McBride
Longtime RiskHedge readers know crypto is one of the best moneymaking opportunities in the world. Cryptos like Ethereum (ETH) have outperformed even the hottest stocks by 10X in the past few years.
And we’re still only in the first inning of this opportunity. For example, did you know Apple (AAPL) is larger than the entire crypto market?
This fact alone makes my big call sound totally absurd…
Crypto will devour the stock market.
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Thursday, February 17, 2022
Stock Market Stumbling Again / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2022
By: Monica_Kingsley
S&P 500 rebound goes on reflexively, but stormy clouds are gathering – I‘m looking for the bears to reassert themselves over the next couple of days latest. The credit markets posture is far from raging risk-on even though select commodities are recovering (what else to expect in a secular commodities bull) and precious metals suffered a modest setback (not a reversal though). Crypto recovery is nodding towards the risk-on upturn that is though likely to get checked soon.
It‘s great that tech was the driver of yesterday‘s S&P 500 upswing, but for how long would it keep leadership now that attention is shifting back towards inflation. Yesterday I wrote that:
(...) rebound looks approaching as stocks might lead bonds in the risk appetite. When the East European tensions get dialed down, S&P 500 can be counted on to lead, probably more so when it comes to value than tech. That‘s why the tech participation is key as it would make up for the evaporating risk premium in energy. Or precious metals – these are likely to rise once again when the spotlight shifts to the inadequacy of Fed‘s tightening in the inflation fight.
So far the stock market advance hasn‘t met a brick wall, but value upswing has been sold into (unlike tech‘s). Energy stocks lost, but are likely to come back – and the next microrotation might not be powerful enough to carry S&P 500 higher. Anyway without a HYG upswing, stock bulls are facing stiff headwinds.
Wednesday, February 16, 2022
Stock Market Mean Reversion / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2022
By: Monica_Kingsley
S&P 500 refused further downside yesterday, and while credit markets didn‘t move much, rebound looks approaching as stocks might lead bonds in the risk appetite. When the East European tensions get dialed down, S&P 500 can be counted on to lead, probably more so when it comes to value than tech. That‘s why the tech participation is key as it would make up for the evaporating risk premium in energy. Or precious metals – these are likely to rise once again when the spotlight shifts to the inadequacy of Fed‘s tightening in the inflation fight.
For now, the war drums took the limelight away, but don‘t count on gold, silver or oil correcting significantly and lastingly. Cryptos are supporting the return of risk-on as the touted war just isn‘t happening either today or tomorrow, and market participants are dialing back the panicky bets. That‘s why Treasuries and tech movements are so key these days – copper trading shows that we‘re in for paring back of the fire sales. I can‘t call it a full fledged stock market reversal, not yet.
Wednesday, February 16, 2022
Stocks Fall as Gold and Oil Jumps Amid Tension Over Ukraine – FED / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2022
By: Chris_Vermeulen
The FED has made it very clear that it will raise its benchmark interest rate, the federal funds rate. This could have severe consequences and even lead to a financial crisis. They are too far behind the curve and will be labeled a major policy error in the future, most likely. They have put themselves in a situation where they are now their own hostage. They need more leadership to describe what a soft landing is going to look like. They have been too slow to act, and now they are going too fast. The “Powell Put” has now been put out to pasture.
We believe that the FED will make more rate hikes than they have announced. Goldman Sachs thinks there will be four 25-basis-point increases in the federal funds rate in 2022. Jamie Dimon, CEO of JPMorgan Chase, said, “he wouldn’t be surprised if there were even more interest rate hikes than that in 2022. There’s a pretty good chance there will be more than four. There could be six or seven. I grew up in a world where Paul Volcker raised his rates 200 basis points on a Saturday night.”
Mr. James Bullard of the St. Louis FED spoke out in an arrogant tone that aggressive action is now required. The markets translated this to mean that the FED was going to call an emergency meeting as soon as this coming week to hike interest rates by no less than 50 basis points. This sent interest rates soaring and stock prices plummeting.
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Tuesday, February 15, 2022
Hot New Inflation Reading Spotlights Fed Failures / Stock-Markets / Inflation
By: MoneyMetals
Another hotter than expected inflation report jolted markets this week.
On Thursday, the Labor Department released the latest Consumer Price Index report. The CPI surged 7.5% in January from a year earlier. That exceeded most forecasts and marked a new four-decade high for consumer price increases. Brian Cheung of Yahoo Finance gives his take on the situation:
Brian Cheung: Price’s (are) rising in the United States across the board by 0.6% on a month-over-month basis. If you index it over a year-over-year period, 7.5% was the growth that we had seen in the report. That is well above the Street's estimates of 7.3% and continues to ratchet up. We've seen Joe Biden talk very frequently, lately, anytime he has the podium about the impact of inflation on Americans. That's because this is becoming a huge and already is becoming a huge political issue for him. Now, of course, all eyes are not just on the White House, in Congress where they engineer fiscal policy, from the Federal Reserve as well -- where the extraordinary monetary stimulus has obviously led to some sort of demand push that is leading to inflation that is not fading as fast as Federal Reserve officials had originally hoped or messaged in the beginning of 2021. That's going to be a very interesting story as we get to that mid-March meeting where the Fed is expected to start raising rates.
Thursday, February 10, 2022
INVESTORS SEDUCED by CNBC and the STOCK CHARTS COMPLETELY MISS the BIG PICTURE! / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2022
By: Nadeem_Walayat
Dear Reader
Have you capitalised on the stock investing lemmings as they leapt off the investing cliff as I and many of my patrons / readers have been doing? If not why not?
For instance during the PANIC I have expanded my exposure to my select list of AI tech stocks form 22.7% to 36.9%.
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Thursday, February 10, 2022
Is it time to buy the Stock Market Dip? / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2022
By: Stephen_McBride
By Justin Spittler : Is it time to buy the dip?After all, the stock market has been a sea of red lately.
Many former highflyers are down 50%... 60%... even 70%.
That has many investors salivating to buy “cheap” shares.
And I get it…
Buying the dip can be a great money-making strategy.
But I don’t think that’s the play here.
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Thursday, February 10, 2022
"A Stock Market Top for the Ages" Video / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2022
By: EWI
Hi reader,
In late 2021, Elliott Wave International Founder and President Robert Prechter gave a rare, live presentation -- "A Stock Market Top for the Ages" -- at the annual New Orleans Investment Conference. The recording comprises Prechter's December 2021 Elliott Wave Theorist.
And now our friends at EWI are sharing it with you free ($99 value).
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Tuesday, February 08, 2022
Reform of the G 7 and the City of London Corporation needed as a matter of urgency. / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2022
By: Christopher_Quigley
Nicholas Shaxon:
"Wealthy individuals hold over 10 trillion dollars offshore….However, the IMF estimates …… that the balance sheets of small island financial centres alone added up to 18 trillion dollars".
The Group of Seven (G-7) is an intergovernmental organization made up of the world's largest developed economies: France, Germany, Italy, Japan, the United States, the United Kingdom, and Canada. Government leaders of these countries meet periodically to address international economic and monetary issues, with each member taking over the presidency on a rotating basis.
In response to the Panama Papers on off-shore banking operations in South America (released by WikiLeaks) the European Commission set up a commission of investigation. Its recommendations are outlined below. However, to date, the G 7 and the City of London Corporation have refused to adopt such measures. This is despite the fact that the G 7 adopted a specific mandate to adopt strategies to aid third world spiralling debt.
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Monday, February 07, 2022
INVESTORS SEDUCED BY STOCK CHARTS COMPLETELY MISS THE THE BIG PICTURE! / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2022
By: Nadeem_Walayat
Given some of the comments I tend to get, (without mentioning anyone) illustrates that many people are STILL failing to fully grasp what we are dealing with here, the AI stocks are NOT NORMAL CORPORATIONS! THEY ARE ON AN EXPONENTIAL TREND TRAJECTORY!
And that exponential reality is QUANTUM AI!
Instead investors are getting seduced by standardised charts of every stock, throwing random names about just because they have fallen x%, perhaps buoyed by one of the more useful metrics, a low PE ratio to entertain thoughts of investing. All of which acts to dilute what is actually taking place as most investors focus is usually in the wrong place, permanently hinged on a few droplets of water that are the quarterly earnings reports at the expense of ignoring the ocean that is the Quantum AI mega-trend.
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Saturday, February 05, 2022
THE Stock Market VALUATION RESET Explained / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2022
By: Nadeem_Walayat
The valuation reset is the rotation out of over valued growth stocks the pinnacle of which populate Cathy Wood's ARK funds and into under valued low PE usually dividend paying stocks as the following illustrates for the Russell Small cap stocks where high value stocks were bid up to to fever pitch ridiculous valuations whilst the value stocks were largely neglected by the market and as you can see we are a long way from the value reset from running it's course so this could play out for most of 2022. Where our AI tech stocks are concerned this translates into the higher the PE stocks facing greater downwards pressure for the likes of Nvidia, AMD, Microsoft and Amazon. Conversely the lower the PE stocks should see upwards pressure especially for dividend paying stocks such as IBM, Intel, GPN, LMT and so on into the biotech's.
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Wednesday, February 02, 2022
High Risk Bio and Tech Stocks and the Quantum Entangled Stock Market / Stock-Markets / Investing 2022
By: Nadeem_Walayat
Dear Reader
Did you buy Google (Alphabet) near $2512 last week as I and many of my patrons did, and similar for many other AI tech stocks?
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Wednesday, February 02, 2022
Stock Market Panic Selling - Can FED Engineer A Soft Landing For The Biggest Bubble We’ve Ever Seen? / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2022
By: Chris_Vermeulen
Taking into account the Fed comments from last week, recently one of our technical analysts forecasted a correct S&P Index price range of $4348 to $4261. The market has since corrected to that level and is now bouncing.
With that said, investors have been panicking with the SPY ETF having an average outflow of more than $1 billion per day over the past ten days.
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Wednesday, February 02, 2022
Stock Market Rally Getting Long in the Tooth / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2022
By: Monica_Kingsley
S&P 500 recoverd the opening setback at 4,500, and the low volume behind the upswing coupled with credit market reversal shows that the push towards 4,600 is next – but it would be fraught with internal vulnerability. It‘s that value has welcomed the risk-on turn while tech barely prevented lower values – the bond reprieve won‘t last, and is providing more fuel behind the commodities push higher, and precious metals recovery.
The Kashkari effect and good ISM Manufacturing PMIs have worked fine, but the services data awaits. And I‘m looking at it to throw a spanner in the works, a modest one. For now, controlling the overall risk is key – fresh portfolio highs were achieved yesterday as new S&P 500 long profits were taken off the table – and commodities with precious metals are likely to do well in this extended (sticking out like a sore thumb) rally off oversold levels (in tech). The other key thought expressed in the linked tweet is that S&P 500 hasn‘t entered a bear market, that it hasn‘t rolled over to the downside for good. It‘s that I expect the return of the bears in the not too distant future, and a smoother sailing in 2H 2022.
Tuesday, February 01, 2022
The Quantum Entangled Stock Market / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2022
By: Nadeem_Walayat
The FAANG stocks are entangled with one another, which is why the likes of Amazon is still holding up there with the likes of Apple and Microsoft. and why we don't tend to get many opportunities to accumulate in the FAANG stocks at deep discounts because to get an opportunity means we are going to have to wait for an opportunity in ALL of the FAANG+ stocks to materialise.
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Sunday, January 30, 2022
STOCK MARKET CRASH INDICATOR / Stock-Markets / Stock Market Crash
By: Nadeem_Walayat
STOCK MARKET CRASH INDICATOR
It looks like my last article freighted a lot of patrons, which was not my intention for I already flagged that the risks of a market panic event have been increasingly long before the neural net signaled a 100%+ reading. It is what it is, an independant indicator which increases the probability for lower prices going forward hence I revised my stock market expectations lower as illustrate by the updated stock market trend forecast graph.
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Sunday, January 30, 2022
Warren Buffetts $130 billion 2022 Investing Master Plan / Stock-Markets / Investing 2022
By: Nadeem_Walayat
Warren Buffett's Berkshire Hathaway is sat on $130 billion of cash. Why? Waiting for the inevitable panic event? Then why didn't Berkshire Hathaway buy in March 2020?
No, Warren Buffett master plans is this -
When the markets starts to crash / roll over into a bear market the naked longs facing forced sales will seek out investors to buy them out of their positions else the the markets would face a cascade of forced panic selling and where would they look for that buyer of last resort who has advertised to all well in advance that they have a mountain of cash? Warren Buffett who will likely be able to pick up positions in his target stocks at deep discounts to market prices.
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Sunday, January 30, 2022
Fed Comments Help To Settle Global Stock Market Expectations / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2022
By: Chris_Vermeulen
The recent Fed comments should have helped settle the global market expectations related to if and when the Fed will start raising rates and/or taking further steps to curb inflation trends. Additionally, the Fed has been telegraphing its intentions very clearly over the past few months, providing ample time for traders and investors to alter their approach to pending monetary tightening actions. Read the full Fed Statement here.
In my opinion, foreign markets are more likely to see increased risks and declining price trends for two reasons. First, at-risk nations/borrowers struggle to reduce debt levels. Second, foreign market traders/investors struggle to adapt to the transition away from speculative “growth” trends. I think the US Dollar may continue to show strength over the next 4+ months as the foreign traders pile into US economic strength while the Fed initiates their tightening actions. So it makes sense to me that global markets would recoil from Fed tightening while debt-heavy corporations/nations seek relief from rising debt obligations.
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Sunday, January 30, 2022
Should Investors Fear Fed Interest Rate Hikes? / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2022
By: MoneyMetals
The prospect of Federal Reserve rate hikes continues to rattle Wall Street and cloud the outlook for precious metals.
On Wednesday, the central bank strongly signaled it will raise its benchmark Fed funds rate for the first time in three years – likely at its March policy meeting.
Policymakers noted that inflation is running “well above” target and also claimed a “strong labor market” justifies a degree of monetary tightening.
"There's quite a bit of room to raise interests without threatening the labor market,” Fed chairman Jerome Powell said, adding, “wages are moving up at the highest pace they have in decades."
Saturday, January 29, 2022
FED TAPER CON TRICK, Recession 2022 / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2022
By: Nadeem_Walayat
Dear Reader
Did you buy the panic? Or were you scared shitless by the clueless MSM and barely out of puberty youtube clowns into a state of paralysis, missed buying Microsoft for $282, or AMD for $101, Nvidia $226, even Google for $2512? My prospective buying levels mailed to patrons before last Monday's open...
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Saturday, January 29, 2022
M&As: Beware of This Major Sign of a Stock Market Top / Stock-Markets / Stocks Bear Market
By: EWI
Here's what often precedes "prolonged and devastating bear markets"
Inside the three publications that comprise Elliott Wave International's flagship Financial Forecast Service, Elliott Wave International recently documented the many expressions of "financial optimism." Things like crypto mania. Or meme stocks. Or just buying any stocks, all stocks, no matter if the companies that issued them are making money, losing it, or have yet to turn a profit.
And it's more than just the individual investors who are caught up in it. Among the other behaviors this widespread financial optimism leads to are corporate mergers and acquisitions.
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Friday, January 28, 2022
BREWING FINANCIAL CRISIS 2.0 Suggests RECESSION 2022 / Stock-Markets / Financial Crisis 2022
By: Nadeem_Walayat
My last article featured an Inflationary indicator pointing to a recession 2022. That latest Inflation data out of the US (6.8%) reinforces what this indicator suggests i.e. US CP LIE inflation is now at it's highest since the early 1980's!.
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Friday, January 28, 2022
Stock Market Rushing Headlong / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2022
By: Monica_Kingsley
Glass half full call on S&P 500 yesterday was vindicated – this yet another reversal has the power to go on, and credit markets appear sniffing out the upcoming reprieve. While rates have justifiably risen, they have done so quite fast in Jan – time to calm down and reprice the excessively hawkish Fed fears. Even if it was just energy and financials that rose yesterday, the table is set for gains across many assets – just check the progress from yesterday‘s already optimistic upturn, or the already fine early view of yesterday‘s market internals.
VIX is calming down, Fed is unlikely to rock the boat too much – such were my yesterday‘s thoughts about:
(…) seeing a rebound on Wednesday‘s FOMC (I‘m leaning towards its message being positively received, and no rate hike now as that‘s apart from the Eastern Europe situation the other fear around).
The sizable open profits – whether in S&P 500 or crude oil – can keep on growing while gold slowly approaches $1,870 again (look for a good day today), and copper stabilizes above $4.50 to keep pushing higher even if not yet outperforming other commodities. More dry firepowder and fresh profits ahead anywhere I look – even cryptos are to enjoy the unfolding risk-on upswing.
Wednesday, January 26, 2022
Is Everyone Going To Be Right About This Stocks Bear Market? / Stock-Markets / Stocks Bear Market
By: Avi_Gilburt
If I'm reading all these articles properly, it seems that we're approaching the end of the world as we know it. In fact, I'm reading expectations of 40%, 50% and even 80% market declines. While I did not receive my invitation to this party, it seems that almost everyone else has and they have chosen to attend.
But, is that how the market works?
When the market was hovering in the 4800SPX region, I reiterated to the members of ElliottWaveTrader.net my expectation that we will likely revisit the 4400SPX region before the market begins its next major rally phase. In fact, I even warned them that the certainty that a new bear market has begun will likely be ubiquitous by the time we strike 4400SPX.
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Wednesday, January 26, 2022
Stock Market Glass Half Empty or Half Full? / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2022
By: Monica_Kingsley
Tough call as select S&P 500 sectors came back to life, but credit markets are a bit inconclusive. Some more selling today before seeing a rebound on Wednesday‘s FOMC (I‘m leaning towards its message being positively received, and no rate hike now as that‘s apart from the Eastern Europe situation the other fear around).
VIX looks to have topped yesterday, and coupled with the commodities and precious metals relative resilience (don‘t look at cryptos where I took sizable short profits in both Bitcoin and Ethereum yesterday), sends a signal of upcoming good couple of dozen points rebound in the S&P 500. Taking a correct view at the hightened, emotional market slide yesterday, is through the portfolio performance – as you can see via clicking the link, yesterday‘s setup needn‘t and shouldn‘t be anyone‘s make or break situation.
Wednesday, January 26, 2022
Stock Market Quoted As Saying 'The Reports Of My Demise Are Greatly Exaggerated' / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2022
By: Avi_Gilburt
I have been writing for Seeking Alpha for over a decade now, and I have also been running a service for investors for over a decade as well. And, I think I have seen it all.
One of the things that still strikes me is the extent to which investors will go to cling to their market perspectives no matter how much you try to explain to them how their old perspectives are not accurate or how much you attempt to open their eyes to new perspectives. You can present as much evidence as you want, you can provide as many examples as you want, yet there will still be a huge number of readers who are unwilling to accept anything beyond their own views. There are truly a lot of closed minds out there who simply love the way their blinders fit upon their eyes.
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Tuesday, January 25, 2022
AI Tech Stocks State Going into the CRASH and Capitalising on the Metaverse / Stock-Markets / Metaverse
By: Nadeem_Walayat
Dear Reader
Caught off guard by the Stock Market Panic underway?
We'll you cannot say you weren't warned!
AI Stocks Portfolio Buying and Selling Levels, Bubble Valuations 2000 vs 2021
Amazon to the MOON 2021! Then what?
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Tuesday, January 25, 2022
Stock Market Relief Rally, Maybe? / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2022
By: Monica_Kingsley
S&P 500 closed below the 200-day moving average – unheard of. But similarly to the turn in credit markets on Wednesday, the bulls can surprise shortly as the differential between HYG and TLT with LQD is more pronounced now. The field is getting clear, the bulls can move – and shortly would whether or not we see the autumn lows tested next.
Now that my target of 4,400 has been reached (the journey to this support has been a more one-sided event than anticipated), 4,300 are next in the bears sight. The bearish voice and appetite is growing, which may call for a little caution in celebrating the downswings next. Relief rally is approaching, even if not immediately and visibly here yet. All I am waiting for, is a convincing turn in the credit markets, which we haven‘t seen yet.
The dollar is likely to waver in the medium-term, and that‘s what‘s helping the great and profitable moves in commodities, and reviving precious metals. Crypto short profits are likewise growing – the real question is when the tech slide would stop (getting closer), and how much would financials rebound as well. Not worried about energy – the oil dip would turn out a mere blip.
Saturday, January 22, 2022
CATHY WOOD ARK GARBAGE ARK Funds Heading for 90% STOCK CRASH! / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2022
By: Nadeem_Walayat
The great valuation reset that I have been warning of for a good 6 months is taking place with a vengeance! As it's not a question of everyone waiting for the Fed act to raise rates because the market is already raising rates anyway and at their sharpest pace in over a year which punishes the high PE garbage growth stocks whilst rewarding low PE strong cash flow stocks.
Look at ARK GARBAGE STOCKS - NO EARNINGS, NO SALES, JUST SOME GARBAGE MANTRA of "DESRUPTIVE TECHNOLOGY" THAT SPEWS OUT of CATHY WOOD from time to time! The only thing getting disrupted are the portfolios of all the poor souls who fell for her snake oil sales pitch!
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Friday, January 21, 2022
Stock Market January PANIC AI Tech Stocks Buying Opp - Trend Forecast 2022 / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2022
By: Nadeem_Walayat
2022 has gotten off to a great start with many of the target AI tech giants having taken a early year tumble to fresh swing lows that is failing to register in the general indices such as the Dow, and which acts as an harbinger of what to expect during a volatile 2022, whilst my stock market trend forecast will seek to map out the trend for Dow into the end of the year. However my primary focus is on accumulating AI tech stocks and thus my analysis also includes individual price targets for each of the AI tech stocks.
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Wednesday, January 19, 2022
WARNING - AI STOCK MARKET CRASH / BEAR SWITCH TRIGGERED! / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2022
By: Nadeem_Walayat
Dear Reader
My Stocks Bear Market / Crash Indicator (CI18) has been triggered as of Fridays close with a reading of 103.4% where a reading of at least 100% equals SWITCHED ON for the first time since late Feb 2020 when it was triggered with a reading of 112%.
Contents:
What is the CI18?
CI18 Trigger Feb 2020
Existing Stock Market Trend Forecast
Stock Market VIX
Stock Market December Trend
OMICRON THE STRAW THAT BROKE THE CAMELS BACK!
MUTED SANTA RALLY
The Alibaba Stock Market
ARKK Garbage
Stocks Bear Market of 2022 May Have Started EARLY!
Facebook $301 Buying level achieved.
Recession 2022
Quantum AI Tech Stocks Portfolio
Crypto FLASH CRASH Early Christmas Present
Wednesday, January 19, 2022
Crude Oil Smashing Stocks / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2022
By: Monica_Kingsley
S&P 500 didn‘t like latest weak data releases, but finished well off intraday lows. This reversal though leaves quite something to be desired – and it‘s sectoral composition doesn‘t pass the smell test entirely either. Yields continued to rise while HYG barely closed where it opened – that‘s not really risk-on. Cyclicals, and riskier parts of tech weren‘t visibly outperforming – the S&P 500 rally felt like a defensive bounce off some oversold levels.
That‘s why it won‘t likely hold for long – I don‘t think we have seen the end of selling – more downside awaits. It‘s still correction time, even if 2022 is likely to end up around 5,150 – we‘re still in a bull market, and Big Tech would do well. For now though, rising yields are putting pressure – and they would continue to rise. As liquidity would no longer be added by the Fed by Mar, the question remains how much would funds coming out of the repo facilities and the overnight account at the Fed (think $2t basically) offset the intended tightening.
Commodities aren‘t at all shaken, and Wednesday‘s positive copper move doesn‘t look to be an outlier – unlike Friday‘s decline that didn‘t correspond with other base metals. Even though it might be soothing to the pension funds, inflation rates aren‘t likely to come down to the usual massaged 2% during the next 2-3 years, no matter whether the Fed hikes by 0.25% 6 or 8 times. The persistently and unpleasantly 4-5% high CPI is likely to break the mainstream narrative, and stay with us for much longer than generally anticipated, which is only part of the reason why I am looking for gold to leave $1,870s very convincingly in the dust this year.
Tuesday, January 18, 2022
Stock Market Trend Forecast Early 2022 - Tech Growth Value Stocks Rotation / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2022
By: Nadeem_Walayat
2022 has gotten off to a great start with many of the target AI tech giants having taken a early year tumble to fresh swing lows that is failing to register in the general indices such as the Dow, and which acts as an harbinger of what to expect during a volatile 2022, whilst my stock market trend forecast will seek to map out the trend for Dow into the end of the year. However my primary focus is on accumulating AI tech stocks and thus my analysis also includes individual price targets for each of the AI tech stocks.
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Tuesday, January 18, 2022
Stock Market Sentiment Speaks: Are We Setting Up For A 'Mini-Crash'? / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2022
By: Avi_Gilburt
Those that read my analysis regularly know that I do not take general market fundamentals or news into account when I analyze the stock market. The main reason is that I view that which drives fundamentals as being the same as that which drives market price. However, the effects of that driver are seen in the stock market much faster than in the market fundamentals. That is why most people have adopted the adage that the stock market is a “leading indicator” for the economy. Yet, they do not understand why that is the case.
While I am not going to discuss why that is the case in this article, I am going to refer you to a previous article I have written, which explains the “why:”
How To Analyze Market Sentiment Along With Market Fundamentals
Interestingly, there are many who take serious umbrage with my perspective, to the point that they are personally insulted. I want to assure you that my perspective has been derived from many years of experience and research. So, it is not meant as a personal affront to any of you who read my articles. I am just trying to open your mind to something that is completely foreign to most investors.
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Sunday, January 16, 2022
RIVIAN IPO Illustrates We are in the Mother of all Stock Market Bubbles / Stock-Markets / Stock Market Valuations
By: Nadeem_Walayat
Just over a week ago EV stock Rivian IPO' d, a stock that virtually delivers nothing in terms of revenues is now valued at $110 billion! The company so far has delivered about 200 cars and their expectations are to deliver about 55,000 cars by the end of 2023.
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Sunday, January 16, 2022
All Market Eyes on Copper / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2022
By: Monica_Kingsley
S&P 500 sold off only a little in the wake of CPI data – probably celebrating that the figure wasn‘t 8% but only 7%. As if that weren‘t uncomfortable already – and the Fed wants to field accelerated taper, and perhaps even four quarter-point rate hikes to tame it? Oh, and perhaps also balance sheet reduction through not reinvesting proceeds from matured bonds and notes as talked on Monday – sure, that will do the trick.
Looking at Treasuries over the prior two days shows that the Fed isn‘t being questioned. Value defends the high ground while tech rallies – Monday‘s fear with its brief return Tuesday, is in the rear-view mirror, compacency returning, and VIX again below 18. Prior upswing consolidation right next, is the most likely action for S&P 500.
The real gains though are being made elsewhere – in crude oil and copper. With commodities back on fire, these two have certainly greater appreciation potential next than stocks or cryptos – so, long live our open longs there!
Sunday, January 16, 2022
A Stock Market Top for the Ages / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2022
By: EWI
Hi reader,
In late 2021, Elliott Wave International Founder and President Robert Prechter gave a rare, live presentation -- "A Stock Market Top for the Ages" -- at the annual New Orleans Investment Conference. The recording comprises Prechter's December 2021 Elliott Wave Theorist.
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Tuesday, January 11, 2022
Stock Market Sentiment Speaks: Are We Ready To Drop To 4400SPX? / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2022
By: Avi_Gilburt
With the market breaking the support I noted last week, it has sent a warning shot across the bow of the bulls. But, before I discuss my market view, I want to first address something that you are all thinking: The Fed caused the decline this past week.
Well, before you go off so certain in your theory, consider that when the Fed had the actual meeting a few weeks ago and announced that it was going to tighten, the market rallied 140 points off its low that day. Yes, the market rallied on the tightening announcement. And, when the market dropped when the Fed minutes to that same meeting came out, you want me to accept that the Fed “caused” the drop?
I have said it many times and I will say it again: While a news event can be a catalyst to a market move, the substance of that news is not going to provide you with an indication for the direction of the move. Here we have a clear instance where the market received the same message regarding the Fed’s tightening two weeks apart. One instance saw the market move up strongly by 140 points, and the other saw the market move down by 110 points.
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Monday, January 10, 2022
Fiscal and Monetary Cliffs Have Arrived / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2022
By: Michael_Pento
According to Doug Ramsey of the Leuthold Group, 334 companies trading on the New York Stock Exchange recently hit a 52-week low, more than double the amount that marked new one-year highs. That’s happened only three other times in history -- all of them occurring in December 1999.How did we get back to the precipice of the year 2000, where tech stocks plunged 80% and the S&P 500 lost 50% of its value over the ensuing two years? Well, start off with the fact that the amount of new money created by our central bank in the past 14 years is $8 trillion. That, by the way, is an increase in base money supply only and does not include all of the new money created by our debt-based monetary system. So, from 1913 to 2008, the Fed created $800 billion. And, it took from 2008 until today—just 14 years--for it to have created $8.8 trillion in base money supply. Is there really any wonder why inflation has now become a salient issue, especially for the middle and lower classes, and why the stock market is now set up for a meltdown similar to the NASDAQ collapse of two decades ago?
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Friday, January 07, 2022
Stock Market 2022 Requires Different Strategies For Traders/Investors / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2022
By: Chris_Vermeulen
I started this article by highlighting how difficult some 2021 strategies seemed for many Hedge Funds and Professional Traders. It appears the extreme market volatility throughout 2021 took a toll on many systems and strategies. I wouldn’t be surprised to see various sector ETFs and Sector Mutual Funds up 15% to 20% or more for 2021 while various Hedge Funds struggle with annual returns between 7% and -5% for 2021.
After many years in this industry and having built many of my own strategies over the past decade, I’ve learned one very important facet of trading strategy development – expect the unexpected. A friend always told me to “focus on failure” when we developed strategies together. His approach to strategy design was “you develop it do too well in certain types of market trends and volatility. By focusing on where it fails, you’ll learn more about the potential draw-downs and risks of a strategy than ignoring these points of failure”. I tend to agree with him.
In the first part of this research article, the other concept I started discussing was how traders/investors might consider moving away from strategies that struggled in 2022. What if the markets continue trending with extreme volatility throughout 2022 and into 2023? Suppose your system or strategy has taken some losses in 2022, and you have not stopped to consider volatility or other system boundaries as a potential issue. In that case, you may be looking forward to a very difficult 12 to 14+ months of trading in 2022 and 2023.
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Friday, January 07, 2022
Is The Lazy Stock Market Bull Strategy Worth Considering? / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2022
By: Chris_Vermeulen
Is The Lazy-Bull Strategy Worth Considering? – Part I
Many traders struggled in 2021 with the extended price volatility and sideways price trends. Recently, news that Bridgewater’s 2021 results were saved by December’s +7.8% gain (Source: Yahoo! Finance) leads me to believe a number of independent funds and investors are going to have a tough end-of-year return for 2021.
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Thursday, January 06, 2022
What Elliott Waves Show for Asia Pacific Stock and Financial Markets 2022 / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2022
By: EWI
Hi,
The Asian-Pacific markets have led global stocks higher since April 2020 -- and they are still MOVING.
Elliott waves have stayed a step ahead. Wondering what they’re showing for 2022?
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Wednesday, January 05, 2022
Stock Market Staving Off Risk-Off / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2022
By: Monica_Kingsley
Another daily rise in yields forced S&P 500 down through tech weakness – the excessive selloff in growth didn‘t lead buyers to step in strongly. More base building in tech looks likely, but its top isn‘t in, and similarly to the late session HYG rebound, spells a day of stabization and rebalancing just ahead. I‘m not looking for an overly sharp move, even if the very good non-farm employment change of 807K vs. 405K expected could have facilitated one. Friday though is the day of the key figure release – till then a continued bullish positioning where every S&P 500 dip is being bought, would be most welcome.
The same goes for high yield corporate bonds not standing in the way, and for credit markets to reverse yesterday‘s risk-off slant. Likewise the compressed yield curve could provide more relief by building on last few days‘ upswings in the 10- to 2-year Treasury ratio. VIX has been repelled above 17 again, and keeps looking ready to meander near its recent values‘ lower end.
Wednesday, January 05, 2022
S&P 500 In an Uncharted Territory, But Is Sky the Limit? / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2022
By: Arkadiusz_Sieron
The S&P 500 retraced its late last week’s declines yesterday and it went closer to the 4,800 level again. Will it reach the new record high today?
The broad stock market index gained 0.64% on Monday, Jan. 3, as it retraced most of the recent decline from last Thursday’s record high of 4,808.93. Yesterday the index fell to the local low of 4,758.17, before advancing almost 40 points. The S&P 500 index remains way above the local highs from November and December. Stocks broke above the consolidation and we had a quick Santa Claus rally. The broad stock market’s gauge continues to trade within a short-term consolidation. For now, it looks like a relatively flat correction within an uptrend.
On Dec. 3 the index fell to the local low of 4,495.12 and it was 5.24% below the previous record high. So it was a pretty mild downward correction or just a consolidation following last year’s advances.
Tuesday, January 04, 2022
The Alibaba Stock Market / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2022
By: Nadeem_Walayat
Those lockdown growth tech stock darlings are leading the decline, the non FAANG variety are seriously starting to resemble Alibaba in terms of trend trajectories.
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Tuesday, January 04, 2022
Stock Market Happy 2022 Entry / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2022
By: Monica_Kingsley
S&P 500 pared prior steep gains, but thanks to the credit markets message, I‘m not reading into Friday‘s weakness much. There is still more in this rally – value held better than tech, and high yield corporate bonds didn‘t really slide. The year end rebalancing will likely give way to solid Monday‘s performance. While VIX appears to want to move up from the 17 level, it would probably take more than one day to play out.
As the Santa Claus rally draws to its close, the nearest data point worth looking forward for, is Tuesday‘s ISM Manufacturing PMI. It‘ll likely show still expanding manufacturing (however challenged GDP growth is on a quarterly basis), and that would help commodities deal with the preceding downswing driven by energy and agrifoods. Both of these sectors are likely to return to gains, and especially oil is. As stated on Thursday, the open profits would still keep rising.
Precious metals were the key winners Friday, paying attention to the dollar and nominal yields retreat the most. The red metal‘s upswing certainly helped – such were my latest words:
(…) copper is primed to catch up in the short run to the other commodities, gold is well bid at current levels, and together with silver waiting for a Fed misstep (market risk reappreciation) and inflation to start biting still some more while the real economy undergoes a soft patch (note however the very solid manufacturing data) with global liquidity remaining constrained even though the Fed didn‘t exactly taper much in Dec, and nominal yields taking a cautious and slow path towards my 2022 year end target of 1.80-2.00% on the 10-year Treasury.
As I wrote prior Monday, we‘re looking at still positive 2022 returns in stocks – of course joined by commodities and precious metals. The path would be though probably a more turbulent one than was the case in 2021.
Monday, January 03, 2022
Stock Market Sentiment Speaks: 2022 Can Be Your Best Year Ever / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2022
By: Avi_Gilburt
Starting with a clean slate in 2022, you can make it the best year you ever have in the market.
It's time to start focusing on what is truly important in the market.
If what you have been doing until now is not working, isn't it time to broaden your understanding of how the market truly works?
With the market likely going to provide us another buying opportunity in early 2022, you may want to set yourself up before we begin the next major rally to 5500SPX.
If you have followed me during the last decade that I have been writing on Seeking Alpha, you would know that we have made some calls that have seemed absolutely ridiculous at the time. But, nevertheless, the market followed the path we laid out no matter how crazy it may have seemed.
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Sunday, January 02, 2022
Stock Market Sector Themes In Play For 2022 / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2022
By: Chris_Vermeulen
As 2021 closes, it’s time to consider how sector themes in the markets are likely to perform in 2022.
Years like 2021 saw a solid broad-based performance in many stock market sectors. Relatively simple approaches such as Indexing and Sector Rotation did well. But with macro changes in play and many uncertainties for 2022, we may very well see broad indexes underperforming while individual sectors dominated by a few stocks really shine.
Dips will continue to be bought unless something significant changes. But let’s not forget that we’re long overdue for a substantial correction. Significant risk catalysts are:
- Fed actions.
- International conflicts (i.e., Russia and China).
- Pandemic developments that are not currently known.
There’s always the risk of the unknown – the literal definition of a “Black Swan” event. We shouldn’t get too complacent, knowing that we may need to get defensive to protect capital suddenly. When it’s time to be defensive, let’s not forget that CASH IS A POSITION!
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Sunday, January 02, 2022
Stock Market Early 2022 Should Continue Melt-Up Trend In January / February / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2022
By: Chris_Vermeulen
A very late Santa Rally appears to have been set up in the US markets as we close in on the end of 2021. The US markets have already started a melt-up trend – which is what I expected to happen prior to the bout of volatility over the past 30+ days.
A Very Late Santa Rally Could Prompt A Powerful Move Upward
A very late positive shift in the US major indexes may prompt a powerful upward price trend in early 2022. I expect that Q4:2021 earnings and revenues will continue to impress traders while the US Dollar strengthens above 95. This combination of a strong US economy with a stronger US Dollar will continue to attract foreign capital investment in US equities in early 2022.
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Thursday, December 30, 2021
Stock Market Santa Rally Challenge / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2021
By: Monica_Kingsley
S&P 500 feels like hanging by the fingernails – tech down and value retreating intraday. Correction of prior steep upswing is here – the bears will try some more, but I‘m not looking for them to get too far. The signs are there to knock the bulls somewhat down, and fresh ATHs look to really have to wait till next week.
Checking up on the VIX, financials and consumer discretionaries confirms the odds of the bears stepping in today, and perhaps also tomorrow (depending upon today‘s close). The repelled HYG downswing likewise doesn‘t represent a significant risk-off turn (yet) – instead, we appear to be on the doorstep of another rotation, and its depth would be determined by how well tech is able to hold near current levels.
Looking at precious metals, commodities and cryptos, the sellers of this risk-on rally have good odds of closing in the black for today. Earliest signs of stabilization would come from bonds, tech and cryptos – that‘s where I‘m mostly looking today.
Thursday, December 30, 2021
Investment Roadmap for 2022 / Stock-Markets / Investing 2022
By: EWI
Hi,
Cryptos competing with USD and EUR. NFTs competing with Rembrandt and Da Vinci. Electric car makers with $0 revenue but market cap bigger than GM, Ford or Toyota.
How do you make sense of today's financial trends?
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Wednesday, December 29, 2021
Stock Market Predictive Modeling Suggests 7~10% Rally In SPY/QQQ Before April 2022 / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2022
By: Chris_Vermeulen
Has the Santa Rally arrived late this year? Are traders trying to position for a Q4:2021 earnings blowout before the end of 2021? Let’s take a look at what predictive modeling can help us understand.
The recent rotation in the SPY/QQQ has shaken some traders’ confidence in the ability of any potential rally – blowing up expectations of a Santa Rally. Yet, here we are with only five trading days before the end of 2021, and the US major indexes are nearing all-time highs again.
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Monday, December 27, 2021
Stock Market Still More to Come / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2021
By: Monica_Kingsley
S&P 500 Santa rally goes on, and risk-on markets rejoice. What a nice sight of market breadth improvement, and confirmation from bonds. Financials and industrials are lagging, but real estate, healthcare and tech are humming smoothly. As I told you yesterday about volatility:
(…) The VIX is calming down, now around 21 with further room to decline still – at least as far as the remainder of 2021 is concerned.
We got the lower values, and today is shaping up to look likewise constructively for the bulls across both paper and real assets. Yesterday‘s dollar decline has helped as much as well bid bonds. Inflation expectations aren‘t yet doubting the Fed, there is no more compressing the yield curve at the moment, so it‘s all quiet on the central bank front. That‘s good, the Santa rally can go on unimpeded.
Precious metals are peeking higher in what looks to be adjustment to the lower yields and dollar, and commodities upswing remains driven by energy, base metals and agrifoods. Cryptos hesitation may hint at slimmer gains today than was the case yesterday when instead of a brief consolidation, we were treated to improving returns.
Thursday, December 23, 2021
Stock Market Santa Rally Time / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2021
By: Monica_Kingsley
S&P 500 made a first step towards the turnaround higher in the opening part of this week. Fading the rally is being countered, and yesterday‘s omicron policy response fears are being duly reversed. For the time being, Fed‘s liquidity is still being added – the real wildcard moving the markets, is corona these days. Credit markets are in the early stages of heralding risk-on appetite as returning. As stated yesterday when mentioning my 2022 outlook:
(…) Fading the FOMC rally went a bit too far – credit markets aren‘t panicking, so I doubt a fresh lasting downtrend is starting here. Chop, yes – the 4,720 area is proving a tough nut to crack, but it would be overcome. If there are two arguments in favor, it‘s the financials and HYG – the likely rebound in the former, and Friday‘s resilience in the latter. Given that Thursday‘s spurt to 4,750 evaporated so fast, I‘m not looking for a stellar year end. Positive given where we‘re trading currently, sure.
Markets are now grappling with faster Fed tapering (which has opened the way to a rate hike in Q2 2022), getting slowly more afraid of fresh corona restrictions, and dealing with inflation that‘s not going anywhere. Outpacing wage growth, with real yields being deeply negative (no, 10-year Treasury yield at even 2% doesn‘t cut it – that‘s my 2022 target, by the way), the administration would be hard pressed in the year of midterms to counter the corrosive inflation effects on poll numbers. And the Fed expects to keep tightening when the real economy is already suffering from contracting liquidity as seen also in strengthening dollar?
The central bank will have a hard time taming inflation, and in my view won‘t succeed – the persistently high inflation rates are going to be with us for years to come, and outpacing wages. … Similar to the recent high PPI reading, this is one more argument for why inflation isn‘t receding in the short run – not when demand isn‘t likewise being destroyed. As if consumer sentiment weren‘t struggling already...
Tuesday, December 21, 2021
Stock Market Sentiment Speaks: Good Luck Trying To Understand This Market / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2021
By: Avi_Gilburt
During the last two weeks, I had the pleasure of traveling with my wife, Sharise, as we hosted our members on a cruise through the Caribbean. We then flew to New York, where we spent time with my father, whose health has been recently failing, and had the opportunity to see Andrea Bocelli in concert at Madison Square Garden.
If you have ever had the pleasure of hearing Mr. Bocelli sing, then you would know how his music can touch your soul. But, if you had the opportunity to learn his life story of perseverance, it would touch your soul that much more deeply.
In a loving note to his family, Mr. Bocelli penned the following words:
"never forget there is no such thing as happenstance. That's an illusion that lawless and arrogant men invented, so that they could sacrifice the truth of our world to their laws of reason."
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Tuesday, December 21, 2021
US Dollar‘s Stock Market Warning Signal / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2021
By: Monica_Kingsley
S&P 500 fading the FOMC rally went a bit too far – credit markets aren‘t panicking, so I doubt a fresh lasting downtrend is starting here. Chop, yes – the 4,720 area is proving a tough nut to crack, but it would be overcome. If there are two arguments in favor, it‘s the financials and HYG – the likely rebound in the former, and Friday‘s resilience in the latter. Given that Thursday‘s spurt to 4,750 evaporated so fast, I‘m not looking for a stellar year end. Positive given where we‘re trading currently, sure.
Markets are now grappling with faster Fed tapering (which has opened the way to a rate hike in Q2 2022), getting slowly more afraid of fresh corona restrictions, and dealing with inflation that‘s not going anywhere. Outpacing wage growth, with real yields being deeply negative (no, 10-year Treasury yield at even 2% doesn‘t cut it – that‘s my 2022 target, by the way), the administration would be hard pressed in the year of midterms to counter the corrosive inflation effects on poll numbers. And the Fed expects to keep tightening when the real economy is already suffering from contracting liquidity as seen also in strengthening dollar?
The central bank will have a hard time taming inflation, and in my view won‘t succeed – the persistently high inflation rates are going to be with us for years to come, and outpacing wages. Corona response is another uncertainty, and given the APT performance, the odds of seeing economic activity (just at a time when supply chains would need to keep working off prior setbacks) restricted, have increased. Similar to the recent high PPI reading, this is one more argument for why inflation isn‘t receding in the short run – not when demand isn‘t likewise being destroyed. As if consumer sentiment weren‘t struggling already...
Monday, December 20, 2021
Fading the Stock Market Rally / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2021
By: Monica_Kingsley
S&P 500 made intraday ATHs, but the upswing was sold into heavily – pre-FOMC positioning raising its head? Bonds didn‘t crater, and the risk-off move wasn‘t all too pronounced. Tech weakness was the key culprit, with value barely hanging onto opening gains. Russell 2000 breaking below its Wednesday‘s open nicely illustrates how late in the topping process we are. What is needed for the upswing to go on, is tech leading the daily charge once again – and it remains to be seen for how long and to what degree would value be able to participate.
I‘m taking today‘s S&P 500 weakness as squaring the prior quick long gains, which felt practically as a short squeeze. Now, we‘re working through the faster taper impact, not having shaken the news off yet. We‘re though getting there, if precious metals seeing through the fresh policy move inadequacy, and commodities likewise, are any clue. As I wrote yesterday:
(…) pretty much everything else surged as the Fed didn‘t turn too hawkish. Predictably. The day of reckoning is again postponed as the central bank effectively kicked the can down the road by not getting ahead of inflation. Taper done by Mar 2022, and three rate hikes then, doesn‘t cut it. This illustrates my doubts about serious inflation figures to still keep hitting (hello latest PPI), and above all, their ability to execute this 1-year plan. If you look under the hood, they don‘t even expect GDP to materially slow down – 4.0% growth in 2022 with three hikes against 3.8% actual in Q3 2021 on no hikes. Something doesn‘t add up, and just as the Bank of England raising rates to 0.25% now, the Fed would be forced to hastily retreat from the just projected course.
Sunday, December 19, 2021
AI Predicts HIGH Risk of Stock Market CRASH, Last Warning Was Late Feb 2020 / Stock-Markets / Stock Market Crash
By: Nadeem_Walayat
My Stocks Bear Market / Crash Indicator (CI18) has been triggered as of Fridays close with a reading of 103.4% where a reading of at least 100% equals SWITCHED ON for the first time since late Feb 2020 when it was triggered with a reading of 112%.
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Thursday, December 16, 2021
Don’t blindly buy the dip in Stocks. Do this instead / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2021
By: Stephen_McBride
By Justin Spittler Stocks are under pressure.Although the big indexes like the S&P 500 have bounced back strongly so far this week... things still look dicey under the surface.
Stocks in leading industries like software, cybersecurity, and clean energy have sold off sharply.
Many investors make a huge mistake during times like this.
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Thursday, December 16, 2021
Stock Market Cliffhanger: 5 Historic Measures Point to ONE Direction / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2021
By: EWI
Dear Reader,
Options trading is HUGE these days, and you may be in that camp, too -- so, we think you'll find this story very interesting.
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Wednesday, December 15, 2021
AI Predicts Risks of Stock Market CRASH, Last Signal Was in Late Feb 2020. / Stock-Markets / Stock Market Crash
By: Nadeem_Walayat
Dear Reader
My Stocks Bear Market / Crash Indicator (CI18) has been triggered as of Fridays close with a reading of 103.4% where a reading of at least 100% equals SWITCHED ON for the first time since late Feb 2020 when it was triggered with a reading of 112%.
Contents:
What is the CI18?
CI18 Trigger Feb 2020
Existing Stock Market Trend Forecast
Stock Market VIX
Stock Market December Trend
OMICRON THE STRAW THAT BROKE THE CAMELS BACK!
MUTED SANTA RALLY
The Alibaba Stock Market
ARKK Garbage
Stocks Bear Market of 2022 May Have Started EARLY!
Facebook $301 Buying level achieved.
Recession 2022
Quantum AI Tech Stocks Portfolio
Crypto FLASH CRASH Early Christmas Present
Wednesday, December 15, 2021
Another Stock Market Inflation Twist / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2021
By: Monica_Kingsley
S&P 500 gave up premarket gains, and closed on a weak note – driven by tech while value pared the intraday downswing somewhat. Market breadth still deteriorated, though – but credit markets didn‘t crater. Stocks look more cautious than bonds awaiting tomorrow‘s Fed, which is a good sign for the bulls across the paper and real assets. Sure, the ride is increasingly getting bumpy (and will get so even more over the coming weeks), but we haven‘t topped in spite of the negative shifts mentioned yesterday.
The signs appear to be in place, pointing to a limited downside in the pre-FOMC positioning, but when the dust settles, more than a few markets are likely to shake off the Fed blues. I continue doubting the Fed would be able to keep delivering on its own hyped inflation fighting projections – be it in faster taper or rate raising. Crude oil is likewise just hanging in there and ready – the Fed must be aware of real economy‘s fragility, which is what Treasuries are in my view signalling with their relative serenity. We‘ve travelled a long journey from the Fed risk of letting inflation run unattented, to the Fed making a policy mistake in tightening the screws too much.
Wednesday, December 15, 2021
Insights into a "Remarkable" NASDAQ Stock Market Development / Stock-Markets / Tech Stocks
By: EWI
Here's what usually happens in the stock market when "the troops abandon the generals"
You've probably heard the phrase: "Appearances can be deceiving."
In other words, it's usually wise to "take a closer look" because the truth may not be obvious.
This applies to various circumstances of life -- even the stock market.
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Monday, December 13, 2021
Act NOW to Protect Your Wealth From PERMANENT Transitory Inflation / Stock-Markets / Inflation
By: Nadeem_Walayat
Dear Reader
This is the concluding part 2 of 2 of my analysis that explains why 'Transitory' Inflation is about to become permanent and some pointers of what one should do to protect ones wealth from the stealth inflation theft of purchasing power. This analysis formed part of my in-depth housing market analysis in progress which has mushroomed beyond my original planned trend forecast for UK house prices which now encompasses an analysis of the state of play of most of world!. So in the interests's of timeliness my stocks analysis is being posted separately ahead of my housing market analysis as will be the case for future analysis form now on.
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Monday, December 13, 2021
Breaking down the world of decentralized finance (DeFi) / Stock-Markets / DeFi
By: Stephen_McBride
Middlemen rule traditional finance. Loan officers at banks decide whether to give you money. We have to deal with stockbrokers, mortgage brokers, and insurance brokers.
DeFi is banking without the bankers. It’s a whole new financial system built on Ethereum’s (ETH) blockchain.
Blockchain’s key innovation is automating trust between strangers. This is extremely powerful. It means we no longer have to rely on financial middlemen to buy stocks or lend money.
DeFi replaces bankers with software. This software is built and managed by a community of individuals on the blockchain, spread across the world.
Monday, December 13, 2021
What I Got Wrong about 2021’s Biggest Stock Market Story / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2021
By: Stephen_McBride
There’s going to be a lot of disappointed kids…I asked my barber what present his son wanted this Christmas.
“A PlayStation 5… but he might as well ask for gold dust,” he said.
Parents are scrambling to get their hands on Sony’s latest game console.
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Saturday, December 11, 2021
What Happens to the Stock Market After a Bullish Stampede? / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2021
By: P_Radomski_CFA
The bulls pumped up the market, but with fundamentals deteriorating and corporations largely responsible for the spike, regular investors will be left holding the bag.
With investors betting on a Santa Clause rally despite the deteriorating fundamentals, the S&P 500 helped the GDXJ ETF (proxy for junior mining stocks) outperform on Dec. 7. However, with short-covering and corporate buybacks primarily responsible for the daily spike, another ‘Minsky Moment’ could be on the horizon.
To explain, I wrote on Nov. 19:
While European markets have largely ignored the recent coronavirus spikes, a sharp sell-off could be the spark that lights the S&P 500’s correction. To explain, the DAX 30 Index (Germany) and the CAC 40 Index (France) both closed slightly lower on Nov. 18. However, prior to Nov. 18, the DAX 30 had closed in the green for 13 of the last 15 trading days, and one-upping its European counterpart, the CAC 40 had closed in the green for 15 of the last 16 trading days.
On top of that, the CAC 40 had an RSI (Relative Strength Index) north of 80, while the DAX 30 had an RSI north of 75. As a result, both indices are materially overbought at a time when Germany is implementing new restrictions. Thus, if a Minsky Moment strikes in Europe, don’t be surprised if the negativity cascades across the Atlantic.
Saturday, December 11, 2021
Socionomics the Key to Predicting Trends in Culture, Business, Politics and More / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2021
By: EWI
Hi,
Have you heard of socionomics?
Socionomics is a budding field that uses trends in stock prices to predict and prepare for trends in business, the economy, politics, pop culture, polarization, societal health and much more.
It's an exciting perspective with (near) limitless practical application.
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Friday, December 10, 2021
Deleveraging COVID Bubble – Possible Volatility Risks In Foreign Financial Markets / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2021
By: Chris_Vermeulen
I get asked all the time what my opinions are regarding the markets. As much as I could go into really deep details regarding technical analysis and other factors of my research, the simple answer is that we’ve been living through 2~4+ years of incredible market trends and unprecedented global central bank efforts to support and contain market risks. This is something we have not seen at these levels since the end of WWII and after the Great Depression.
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Friday, December 10, 2021
Trading Options in the UK / Stock-Markets / Options & Warrants
By: Russell_Fenton
Some investors are happy with capital growth on their portfolios when trading stock markets, while some are looking for higher returns. There exists an option where there is still potential to make a lot of money, yet with lower risk than buying shares. Options trading can be an appealing method of making money in the financial markets, yet many people fail to understand even the basics of this complex transaction.
Nowadays, many brokers will allow you to sign up for an account and trade options, even without qualifications or financial investments. You will, therefore, only need the required funds to cover the initial margin requirements set out by your broker before you can begin trading.
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Thursday, December 09, 2021
Stock Market Turning the Corner in Style / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2021
By: Monica_Kingsley
S&P 500 bulls delivered, and the revival in risk-on is increasingly getting legs as HYG rebounded sharply. The sharply increasing participation is counterbalanced by still compressing yield curve, but yields finally rose yesterday. Finally, we saw a truly risk-on positioning in the credit markets – and that won‘t be without (positive) consequences.
Still, it pays to be ready for the adverse scenario that I‘ve described in yesterday‘s key analysis, in connection with which I have received an interesting question. It‘s essentially a request to dig in some more so that my thinking can‘t be interpreted as being on the verge of immediately flipping bearish:
Q: Your analysis of today: "Downside risks having sharply increased since Thanksgiving. Not only for stocks, where we might not be making THE correction's low, but also for commodities, cryptos and precious metals". I am not sure if I am interpreting this right (English is not my native language). Are you saying that the market might turn down spectacular, even for precious metals?
A: it's specifically the market breadth for larger than 500 stock indices that tells me we possibly aren't out of the woods yet - no matter the technical improvements that I looked for us to get yesterday, and that are likely to continue thanks not only to solid HYG performance. What I'm saying is that unless there is broader participation in the unfolding S&P 500 rally (and in the rally of other indices), we're in danger of a more significant move to the downside than we saw already (those few percents down).
Wednesday, December 08, 2021
Stock Market Sentiment Speaks: I Expect 15-20% Returns For 2022 / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2022
By: Avi_Gilburt
This week, I am keeping my post simple, as I am really short on time.
For those that follow my analysis through the years, you would remember that I turned strongly bullish as the S&P 500 approached the 2200SPX region in March of 2020. But, if you also remember that time period, the level of fear in the market even exceeded that seen at the March 2009 lows. So, when I suggested that the market would see a rally from 2200 to at least 4000, with an ideal target in the 6000 region, many simply could not believe what I was saying, as you can see here.
As you can see, most folks thought my view was “unmeaningful,” “absurd,” “insane,” or based upon “chart magic,” while I ignored the “common sense view.” However, my expectation was based upon our Fibonacci Pinball methodology of applying Elliott Wave analysis.
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Wednesday, December 08, 2021
Stock Market Topping Process Roadmap / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2021
By: Monica_Kingsley
S&P 500 bulls missed a good opportunity to take prices higher in spite of the sharp medim-term deterioration essentially since the taper announcement. It‘s the Fed and not Omicron as I told you on Wednesday, but the corona uncertainty is reflected in more downgrades of real economy growth. There are however conflicting indicators that make me think we‘re still midway in the S&P 500 topping process and in for a rough Dec (no Santa Claus rally) at the same time, and these indicators feature still robust manufacturing and APT (hazmat manufacturer) turning noticeably down.
Still, it‘s all eyes on the Fed, and its accelerated tapering intentions (to be discussed at their next meeting) as they finally admitted to seeing the light of inflation not being transitory. The ever more compressing yield curve is arguably the biggest watchout and danger to inflation and commodity trades – one that would put question mark to the point of answering in the negative whether we are really midway in the topping process. Another indicator I would prefer turning up, would be the advance-decline line of broader indices such as Russell 3000. And of course, HYG erasing a good deal of its prior sharp decline, which I had been talking often last week – until that happens, we‘re in danger of things turning ugly and fast, and not only for stocks should 4530s decisively give.
Tuesday, December 07, 2021
VR and Gaming Becomes the Metaverse / Stock-Markets / Metaverse
By: Nadeem_Walayat
Happy Thanksgiving holiday to all my patrons in honour of the 102 pilgrims who left England in 1620 on board the Mayflower to start their new lives in the New World, struggled to grow food until the native americans taught them how to use the land, followed in November 1621 by the first thanksgiving when the native americans were invited by the settlers to a big feast, though I don't think they were invited in subsequent years given outbreak of hostilities . Nevertheless a belated happy thanksgiving!
Facebook hit the nail on the head by bringing forth realisation to the masses of the emerging metaverse's with their corporate name change to META, though most will soon forget what all the fuss was about and carry on their merry way until they next big metaverse story, so this aspect of the Quantum AI mega-trend will continue to trundle along in the background. However savvy investors will already be aware of the "meta-verse" and what it heralds in terms of virtual products and services as the headsets technology plays catchup so as to allow the masses to escape from an increasingly dismal economic future given the rise of machine intelligence automation that seeks to replace human labour as we have seen play out in countless movies such as Ready Player One.
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Tuesday, December 07, 2021
For Profit or for Loss: 4 Tips for Selling ASX Shares / Stock-Markets / Austrailia
By: Submissions
Selling a share on the stock market is as important and intricate as buying one, especially in the Australian market. It's challenging to let go of a profitable asset, and it's impossible to predict when stock prices rise or decline. Many beginners of the industry may regret selling their shares right before they grow, missing out on massive gains, while others may hold on to them for too long, expecting that a declining stock would recover.The Australian Securities Exchange (ASX) currently lists approximately 2,000 firms, each with data on share prices and predicted growth or decrease. Shareholders gain or lose money based on how well a firm performs gradually; therefore, it shouldn't be underestimated. While perfectly planning your trades is impossible, many share-selling tips allow you to make wiser decisions. Selling your shares on the ASX? Here are four tips for selling ASX shares, whether for profit or loss:
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Tuesday, December 07, 2021
Omicron COVID Variant-Possible Strong Stock Market INDU & TRAN Rally / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2021
By: Chris_Vermeulen
As we’ve been watching the markets recoil away from risks related to the new Omicron COVID variant and other factors, one simple thought keeps running through my head. What if the markets suddenly shift away from this panic selling and resume a rally/recovery trend – possibly pushing to new all-time highs before the end of the year?
Recently, the Put/Call ratio reached a moderate-high near 0.84. I interpret this as long traders buying protection in the event of an extended breakdown in the US/global markets. In the past, typically, when the Put/Call ratio reaches levels above 0.80 – the markets are very close to a bottom.
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Monday, December 06, 2021
S&P 500 – Is a 5% Correction Enough? / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2021
By: Paul_Rejczak
The S&P 500 bounced from the 4,500 level on Thursday, as it retraced most of its Wednesday’s sell-off. Was it a reversal or just another upward correction?For in-depth technical analysis of various stocks and a recap of today's Stock Trading Alert we encourage you to watch today's video.
The broad stock market index gained 1.42% on Thursday after opening slightly lower and bouncing from the new local low of 4,504.73. The index fell the lowest since the October 19 and it went below its early September local high of around 4,546. Overall, it lost 5.04% from the Nov. 22 record high of 4,743.83. But Thursday’s trading session was bullish and stocks were gaining. Was it an upward reversal? This morning stocks are expected to open 0.3% higher after the mixed monthly jobs data release. For now, it looks like a correction within a downtrend. We may see a short-term consolidation following the recent declines.
The nearest important support level is now at 4,500. On the other hand, the resistance level is at 4,580-4,600, marked by the recent local lows. The S&P 500 remains below its short-term downward trend line, as we can see on the daily chart (chart by courtesy of http://stockcharts.com):
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Monday, December 06, 2021
Global Stock Markets It’s Do-Or-Die Time / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2021
By: Chris_Vermeulen
Almost all of the US and global markets volatility has taken place over the last 6+ trading days. Even though economic data continues to show a strengthening US economy and jobs market, the news of the Omicron COVID variant has spooked the global markets. I’m going to illustrate how the markets are nearing critical support levels that are a “Do-Or-Die” level for the market, in my opinion.
Let’s get right into the charts – shall we?
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Sunday, December 05, 2021
How Stagflation Effects Stocks / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2021
By: Nadeem_Walayat
My long standing mantra has been that one of the primary reasons to remain invested in AI tech stocks is because they are leveredged to inflation, which on an average basis is true. However when gauging how each individual stock will react to inflation one needs to take key points into consideration such as the stocks valuation where an over valued stock trading on many multiples of the markets average of 20 is going to be finally balanced on a knife edge of future gains vs a bear market where it only takes a small shift in investor expectations to send that stock sharply lower.
Whilst the basic reason why AI stocks are leveraged to inflation is because inflation will inflate their revenues and costs and given that AI stocks are highly profitable then the gap between revenues and costs should expand due to inflation hence are leveraged to inflation.
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Saturday, December 04, 2021
Dow Stock Market Trend Forecast Into Mid 2022 / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2021
By: Nadeem_Walayat
The stock market is overbought on multitude of measures and ripe for significant correction even if many people are expecting it to happen. Though I hear many people stating that because so many are expecting a correction therefore it's sods law that it's not going to happen so don't risk missing out on another 10% bull ruin by waiting for a correction!
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Saturday, December 04, 2021
What Is A Golden Cross Pattern In Trading? / Stock-Markets / Trading Systems
By: Submissions
Trading is very interesting and rewarding when you have proper knowledge, nerves of steel, and fast decision-making skills. All of this starts with knowing the basics of trading.
Today in this article, let us find out more about the golden cross trading pattern.
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Friday, December 03, 2021
Stock Market Major Turning Point Taking Place / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2021
By: Chris_Vermeulen
Global financial markets were already hobbled by the original COVID-19 virus – struggling to regain their economic foundation after many months of the unprecedented central bank, government, and humanitarian efforts to move us towards recovery. Now, the Omicron strain of the COVID virus has potentially toppled the apple cart while global inflationary and economic concerns are peaking. What’s next?
Why Traders Need To Consider Future Risks
This recent article caught my attention as I caught up on today’s morning events (Source: Yahoo! Finance). It highlights the incredible inflationary trends occurring because of disrupted supply channels related to the original COVID-19 disruption. Could you imaging what would happen if a new virus strain prompted further lockdowns and labor/supply disruptions for another 12+ months – or longer?
The massive amounts of stimulus and money printing that has taken place over the last 4+ years by global central banks may be acting as an anchor for growth and starting to weigh down global markets. Easy money policies lead individuals and corporations to borrow more and more capital expecting growing returns from sales. What happens when we start to see a mild economic slowdown take place, possibly complicated by inflationary price trends and consumers that pull away from making big purchases?
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Friday, December 03, 2021
This simple Stock Market mindset shift could help you make millions / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2021
By: Stephen_McBride
Editor’s note: Today, we’re sharing an important adaptation from Chief Analyst Stephen McBride’s recent issue of Disruption Investor…One that’s more important than any one specific stock recommendation…
This is about a simple mindset shift that can make or break your retirement, so you’ll want to read closely.
***
“Most American investors now expect the stock market to crash.”
That Business Insider headline flashed across my screen recently.
Over half of American investors think stocks are headed for a crash, according to a survey by insurance giant Allianz.
New data from The American Association of Individual Investors paints a similarly gloomy picture. The number of stock market bulls is near its lowest level in a decade.
Judging by how investors feel, you’d think the market is struggling…
But did you know the S&P 500 hit new record highs last week?
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Wednesday, December 01, 2021
Stock Market Sentiment Speaks: I Fear For Retirees For The Next 20 Years / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2021
By: Avi_Gilburt
When caution is thrown to the wind, we begin to recognize that the market may be moving into a dangerous euphoric state from which a long-term bear market can begin. And, while it may be easier to bury your head in the sand, I strongly urge you to take to heart what I am about to say, as it will likely have ripple effects for generations to come.
Recently, I read that the board of directors of the nation’s largest pension fund voted to use borrowed money and alternative assets to meet its investment-return target. What makes this even more striking is that this same pension fund lowered their investment-return target just a few months ago.
“The move by the $495 billion California Public Employees’ Retirement System reflects the dimming prospects for safe publicly traded investments by households and institutions alike and sets a tone for increased risk-taking by pension funds around the country.
Without changes, Calpers said its current asset mix would produce 20-year returns of 6.2%, short of both the 7% target the fund started 2021 with and the 6.8% target implemented over the summer.
Board members voted 7 to 4 in favor of borrowing and investing an amount equivalent to 5% of the fund’s value, or about $25 billion, as part of an effort to hit the 6.8% target, which they voted not to change. The trustees also voted to increase riskier alternative investments, raising private-equity holdings to 13% from 8% and adding a 5% allocation to private debt.”
Source: WSJ
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Wednesday, December 01, 2021
Will the Anointed Finanical Experts Get It Wrong Again? / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2021
By: MoneyMetals
The emergence of the new Omicron coronavirus strain is roiling financial and precious metals markets. Investors fear government health officials will order new lockdowns to try to contain it.
Never mind that previous lockdowns don’t appear to have worked. Some of the most draconian were imposed by Michigan governor Gretchen Whitmer. Her state now records the nation's highest seven-day rate of infections.
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Tuesday, November 30, 2021
Omicron Covid Wave 4 Impact on Financial Markets / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2021
By: Monica_Kingsley
Day That Changed the World?
S&P 500 and pretty much everything apart from Treasuries and safe haven plays down precipitously, with panic hitting oil the hardest. The post Thanksgiving session turned out not so light volume one, but the fear wasn‘t sending every risk-on asset cratering by a comparable amount. What we have seen, is an overreaction to uncertainty (again, we‘re hearing contagion and fatality rate speculations – this time coupled with question mark over vaccine efficiency for this alleged variant), and the real question is the real world effect of this announcement, also as seen in the authorities‘ reactions.
Lockdowns or semi-equivalent curbs to economic activity are clearly feared, and the focus remains on the demand side for now, but supply would inevitably suffer as well. Do you believe the Fed would sit idly as the economic data deteriorate? Only if they don‘t extend a helping hand, we are looking at a sharp selloff. Given the political realities, that‘s unlikely to happen – the inflation fighting effect of this fear-based contraction would be balanced out before it gets into a self-reinforcing loop. With the fresh stimulus checks lining up the pocket books, Child and Dependent Care Tax Credit etc., we‘re almost imperceptibly moving closer to some form of universal basic income. Again, unless the governments go the hard lockdown route over scary medical prognostications (doesn‘t seem to be the case now), such initiatives would cushion financial markets‘ selloffs.
Tuesday, November 30, 2021
Economic and Market Impacts of Omicron Strain Covid 4th Wave / Stock-Markets / Coronavirus 2021
By: Gary_Tanashian
Before this week’s COVID mutant headlines served well to take more enthusiasm out of a frothy market that we have been noting to be at longer-term ‘structural’ (as opposed to varying short-term) sentiment risk, we took a look at COVID-19 from a different perspective.
NFTRH 682 discussed the contrary deflationary or dis-inflationary view that could re-set the Fed from its current hawkish pretense. #682 also presented the case for continued inflation. Both macro conditions were covered and will be covered until things shake out one way, the other, or both, or neither (read: Goldilocks) along with strategic stock highlights as they relate to the macro environment and, assuming a stable market over the next several weeks, some seasonal buy opportunities due to tax loss selling.
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Tuesday, November 30, 2021
Stock Market Historical Trends Suggest A Strengthening Bullish Trend In December / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2021
By: Chris_Vermeulen
I received many messages and emails asking my opinions related to the recent market volatility and sideways trending in the US markets. Many traders see the recent downward price trend as a warning of a potential shift in trends. Yet, I see it as normal November volatility in price and wanted to share some data to support my conclusions.
Even though I’m not dismissing some external event, like a sudden US Fed move or some foreign market event, historically, the US markets enter a reasonably strong Christmas/Santa rally phase at this time every year. The increasing volatility usually starts to build in September/October – reaching a peak in October/November every year. December’s trends are traditionally much more muted and consolidated.
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Friday, November 26, 2021
Is the S&P 500 Topping or Just Consolidating? / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2021
By: Paul_Rejczak
The S&P 500 continues to fluctuate along the 4,700 level. So is this a topping pattern or just a flat correction before another leg up?
The S&P 500 index extended its Monday’s decline yesterday, as it fell to the daily low of 4,652.66. But it closed 0.17% higher following an intraday rebound. The market rebounded to the 4,700 level again. The broad stock market keeps trading within an over two-week-long consolidation. For now, it looks like a flat correction within an uptrend. However, it may also be a topping pattern before some more meaningful downward reversal.
Thursday, November 25, 2021
A Couple of Things to Think About Before Buying Shares / Stock-Markets / Investing 2021
By: Submissions
Buying shares is a form of investment that pays off in the long run. You can acquire shares at one price and sell them at a higher price. This is known as capital gains. From a historical standpoint, shares have provided some of the most resilient after-tax investment returns. You gain the money, pay income tax on it, and afterward deposit it into some kind of account, where it can earn interest. Alternatively, shares can provide income in the form of dividends. They’re usually paid out twice a year. Some companies pay dividends on an ad-hoc basis to demonstrate it has amassed sufficient cash reserves to make dividend payments.
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Wednesday, November 24, 2021
Stock Market Begins it's Year End Seasonal Santa Rally / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2021
By: Nadeem_Walayat
If one looks at the general stock market indices such as the Dow, S&P and Nasdaq then the correction is done and dusted, However look under the hood and one sees huge volatility in the tech sector, huge price drops of stocks crashing by over 10% in a single day and for some by as much as 1/3rd (Peloton). So where many tech stocks are concerned a significant correction HAS TRANSPIRED despite the indices largely giving a head and shoulders shrug by continuing to revert to new all time highs.
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Wednesday, November 24, 2021
Stock Market Betting on Hawkish Fed / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2021
By: Monica_Kingsley
S&P 500 reversed from fresh ATHs as spiking yields sent tech packing. Value didn‘t soar, but held up considerably better – still, stock bulls are getting on the defensive. Markets have interpreted the Powell nomination as a hawkish choice. I‘ve written the prior Monday:
(…) the Fed is still printing a huge amount of money on a monthly basis, and it remains questionable how far in tapering plans execution they would actually get – I see the risks to the real economy coupled with persistently high inflation as rising since the 2Q 2022 (if not since Mar already, but most pronounced in 2H 2022.
Inflation hasn‘t moved to the Fed‘s sights, and yesterday‘s rection in yields and precious metals is a bit too harsh. While rates are on a rising path as I‘ve written yesterday, precious metals overreacted. True, the bullish argument for the dollar stepped to the fore as yields differential between the U.S. and the rest of the world got more positive, and at the same time, various yield spreads keep compressing. That‘s a reflection of less favorable incoming economic data. Just as much as Friday‘s reaction was about corona economic impact projections, yesterday‘s one was about monetary policy anticipation.
Inflation expectations though barely budged – the decline doesn‘t count as trend reversal. CPI isn‘t done rising, and the more forward looking incoming data (e.g. producer prices) would confirm there is more to come. All in all, it looks like precious metals (and to a smaller degree commodities), are giving Powell benefit of the doubt, which I view to be leading to disappointment over the coming months. Should Powell heed the markets‘ will, the real economy would weaken dramatically, forcing him to make a sharp dovish turn – and he would, faster than he flipped since getting challenged in Dec 2018.
Wednesday, November 24, 2021
Stock Market Elliott Wave Trend Forecast / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2021
By: Nadeem_Walayat
Every high is the fifth of the fifth of the fifth! until the market fails to follow through and on we march with the next high then the next high, which is why I take Elliott Wave Theory with a mountain of salt.
My Elliott Wave pattern of Feb 2009 has proven remarkably accurate (as did the pattern before that), see being skeptical works! It's when people think they have found the holy grail when things start to go wrong!
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Wednesday, November 24, 2021
Your once-a-year All-Access Financial Markets Analysis Pass / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2021
By: EWI
Hi Reader,
As you watch the markets move, you want in. Every trader and investor thinks this way.
But how do you know WHEN is the best time to jump in? Jump out? Stay flat?
Today, millions of new traders think that trading means "buy and hold." They are wrong. Trading means punching in both directions -- and our friends at Elliott Wave International can show you how, right now.
Once every year, EWI offers their full library of high-quality, online, on-demand e-courses at a heavy discount. They call it the All-Access Pass.
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Tuesday, November 23, 2021
Stock Market Sentiment Speaks: Can We Get To 5500SPX In 2022? But 4440SPX Comes First / Stock-Markets / Stock Market Sentiment
By: Avi_Gilburt
Before you begin reading this article, I want to warn you that it is quite lengthy and also recaps some of our analysis over the past 20 months. So, if this will offend you or you don't want to hear that, feel free to stop reading right now.
I have been writing for Seeking Alpha now for over a decade. And, during that time, I certainly have had my share of critics. I have been told that I do not understand the markets I track. I have been called names like "insane," "dimwit," "charlatan," and "snake oil salesman." And, I have been told that my "squiggly line" analysis cannot foretell anything, is "absurd," "chart magic," and "highly unmeaningful."
And, these are just some of the comments I received over the last 20 months alone, as you can see for yourself:
Are You As Foolish As Most Market Participants?
So, it has certainly been an interesting past 20 months, in addition to the last decade.
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Tuesday, November 23, 2021
A Month-to-month breakdown of how Much Money Individuals are Spending on Stocks / Stock-Markets / Stock Market Sentiment
By: EWI
It's been noted before in these pages that ...
... Investors have put more money into stocks in the last 5 months than the previous 12 years combined
That was an April CNBC headline.
That remains an astounding fact to contemplate and a testimony to a widespread cavalier sentiment toward risk. The basic attitude is that stocks almost always go up.
Well, nearly a half year since that CNBC headline published, the public's interest in stocks has remained intense.
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Tuesday, November 23, 2021
S&P 500: Rallying Tech Stocks vs. Plummeting Oil Stocks / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2021
By: Paul_Rejczak
The S&P 500 index nearly topped its record high on Friday, but it closed lower following an intraday decline. Is this a topping pattern?
For in-depth technical analysis of various stocks and a recap of today's Stock Trading Alert we encourage you to watch today's video.
The S&P 500 index lost 0.14% on Friday, Nov. 19, as it extended its short-term consolidation along the 4,700 level. The broad stock market went sideways despite record-breaking rallies in large tech stocks like AAPL, MSFT and NVDA. It still looks like a short-term topping pattern, as the S&P 500 index keeps bouncing from the Nov. 5 record high of 4,718.50.
Monday, November 22, 2021
Dow Stock Market Trend Analysis / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2021
By: Nadeem_Walayat
Dow Annual Percent Change
The Dow in percentage terms is well on it's way to retreating from it's most overbought state in decades, what usually tends to happen is that the Dow percent touches or more usually crosses below the red bar and for the bull market to resume would need to cross back above the red bar.How far would the Dow need to fall to fulfill this requirement in the allotted Sept / Oct correction time window? Probably to around 28k. However the alternative is that the Dow stays put around 34k to 35k for the next 6 months, which does not seem probable, so this indicator is suggesting a swift sharp drop to possibly as low as 28k within the next few weeks!
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Saturday, November 20, 2021
US Dollar vs Yields vs Stock Market Trends / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2021
By: Nadeem_Walayat
The first thesis is that when the dollar and yields are rising then stocks should be falling because it is seen as being deflationary, risk off. The actual correlation is basically 50/50, a coin flip. So a rising dollar and yields is a con flip for stock market weakness.
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Friday, November 19, 2021
Stock Market Margin Debt WARNING! / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2021
By: Nadeem_Walayat
Margin debt tends to peak and fall long before the stock market turns lower as basically speculators are starting to get cold feet and thus cut back on their bets. Either that or forced closures of their losing shorts due to failure to meet margin calls, probably more of the former than the latter.
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Friday, November 19, 2021
Will the Senate Confirm a Marxist to Oversee the U.S. Currency System? / Stock-Markets / Fiat Currency
By: MoneyMetals
Precious metals markets pulled back a bit this week as the U.S. dollar strengthened versus foreign currencies.
In other markets, the rising dollar index put downward pressure on crude oil and gasoline futures this week. Consumers who have been experiencing pain at the pump should get a bit of a reprieve in the days ahead.
But it could be short lived. The same government policies that helped drive gas prices higher this year are still in place: Massive fiscal and monetary stimulus coupled with disincentives for domestic energy production.
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Friday, November 19, 2021
When Even Stock Market Bears Act Bullishly (What It May Mean) / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2021
By: EWI
"Some indicators are making records"
It's difficult for most investors to take an independent stand from the crowd.
For example, it may be wise to "buy when there's blood in the streets," as Baron Rothschild famously said, but for many investors, that's easier said than done.
Likewise, when a financial uptrend has persisted, it's difficult for many investors to act in a contrary way to the pervasive optimism.
Consider this chart and commentary from the November Elliott Wave Financial Forecast, a monthly publication which provides coverage of major U.S. financial markets:
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Thursday, November 18, 2021
Kondratieff Full-Season Stock Market Sector Rotation / Stock-Markets / Sector Analysis
By: Chris_Vermeulen
In part one of this article, I highlighted my opinion that the US and Global markets rolled through a hyper-active Kondratieff full-season rotation throughout the COVID-19 virus crisis. In 2017 and late 2018:
- Bonds were trading lower
- Gold and Silver were trading near multi-year lows
- Real Estate had peaked in the short term as rates started to rise a bit
- and the Stock market rallied to new all-time highs
All of these are components of a late Spring or early Summer type of Kondratieff Season.
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Thursday, November 18, 2021
What Stock Market Trends Will Drive Through To 2022? / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2021
By: Chris_Vermeulen
Some interesting facts related to market trends and the global economy have come into play recently. After the COVID-19 virus event began, global central banks entered a phase of extended easing. This move was an attempt to transition through the economic concerns related to the immediate shutdown caused by COVID-19. These actions have translated into a new phase of market trending where the Consumer became hyper-active in the global economy while inflationary trends were somewhat muted.
COVID Shifts Global Market Cycles Into Faster & Broader Trends
Now that inflation is starting to rise, we may transition away from consumer and speculative market cycles. Over the next 6 to 12+ months, the markets may shift into a late-stage Bullish rally phase. My opinion is the COVID-19 virus, and economic event process has resulted in a speedy, possibly 24 to 36 month, extreme cycle phase.
Take a quick look at the Stock Market & Economic Performance cycle example below. We can see that Financials/Transports, Technology, and Capital Goods usually lead a market rally after a bottom in cycle trends. This trend is generally followed by a rally in Basic Industry, Precious Metals, and Energy before we near a peak level in the stock market.
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Wednesday, November 17, 2021
Sentiment Speaks: This Stock Market Makes Absolutely No Sense / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2021
By: Avi_Gilburt
People still argue with me about the weight one should give to market sentiment when investing or trading. Yet, when the earnings were announced for AMC this past week, it certainly should make you scratch your head.
AMC stock was just below $8 before Covid hit. When we look at a little closer at today’s company data relative to the pre-Covid era, we realize that AMC has more shares outstanding, more debt, and higher losses post-Covid. Yet, today, the stock is over $40. In the recent earnings report, management even told us that they are not yet at the pre-Covid levels when it comes to their fundamentals. Yet, the stock is 5 times higher.
Many of you would shrug this off to “the madness of crowds.” But, what it highlights is that the only thing that can explain this is market sentiment. So, while many would shrug this stock off as simply being “over-valued,” have you considered what that really means?
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Tuesday, November 16, 2021
Dow Stock Market Trend Forecast Into Mid 2022 / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2021
By: Nadeem_Walayat
Dear Reader
This is the fourth and final part of my extensive analysis that maps a stock markets trend forecast into Mid 2022 - Stock Market FOMO Hits September Brick Wall - Dow Trend Forecast Sept 2021 to May 2022
Part 1 - Stock Market FOMO Going into Crash Season
Part 2 - Why Most Stocks May Go Nowhere for the Next 10 Years!
Part 3 - Dow Stock Market Trend Analysis
Contents:
- Stock Market Forecast 2021 Review
- Stock Market AI mega-trend Big Picture
- US Economy and Stock Market Addicted to Deficit Spending
- US Economy Has Been in an Economic Depression Since 2008
- Inflation and the Crazy Crypto Markets
- Inflation Consequences for the Stock Market
- FED Balance Sheet
- Weakening Stock Market Breadth
- Why Most Stocks May Go Nowhere for the Next 10 Years!
- FANG Stocks
- Margin Debt
- Dow Short-term Trend Analysis
- Dow Annual Percent Change
- Dow Long-term Trend Analysis
- ELLIOTT WAVES Analysis
- Stocks and 10 Year Bond Yields
- SEASONAL ANALYSIS
- Short-term Seasonal Trend
- US Presidential Cycle
- Best Time of Year to Invest in Stocks
- 2021 - 2022 Seasonal Investing Pattern
- Formulating a Stock Market Trend Forecast
- Dow Stock Market Trend Forecast Sept 2021 to May 2022 Conclusion
- Investing fundamentals
- IBM Continuing to Revolutionise Computing
- AI Stocks Portfolio Current State
- My Late October Stocks Buying Plan
- HIGH RISK STOCKS - Invest and Forget!
- Afghanistan The Next Chinese Province, Australia Living on Borrowed Time
- CHINA! CHINA! CHINA!
- Evergrande China's Lehman's Moment
- Aukus Ruckus
Tuesday, November 16, 2021
Stock Market Minor Cycle Correcting / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2021
By: Andre_Gratian
Current Position of the Market
SPX Long-term trend: The long-term trend continues unimpeded but could be challenged in early 2022.
SPX Intermediate trend: An intermediate correction has ended and given way to another intermediate uptrend which could continue into early 2022.
Analysis of the short-term trend is done daily with the help of hourly charts. They are important adjuncts to the analysis of daily and weekly charts which determine longer market trends.
Tuesday, November 16, 2021
Why Most Stocks May Go Nowhere for the Next 10 Years! / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2021
By: Nadeem_Walayat
Here's why PE ratio's matter as the following chart shows the return 10 years forward from the starting average PE i.e if the stock market is trading on an average PE of 27 than can basically be expected to go nowhere for the next 10 years. Whilst the lower the PE the higher the expected return (on average), where the safe zone for investing is at a starting PE of between 10 and 20.
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Monday, November 15, 2021
Stock Market Inflation Consequences - S&P Dividend Yield vs CPI / Stock-Markets / Stock Market Valuations
By: Nadeem_Walayat
Here's another indicator to pile on top of a mountain of indicators that I have been covering over the past few months all flashing RED . The S&P real terms dividend yield is now LESS than at the dot com bubble peak! In fact one would need to go back to the depths of the early 1980s' inflationary depression to reach such poor returns.
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Sunday, November 14, 2021
Focus on Stock Market Real Gains / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2021
By: Monica_Kingsley
S&P 500 declined, and not enough buyers arrived in my view. Still, we‘re likely to see a brief pause in selling, and that‘s giving the bulls a chance. Credit markets were a bit too beaten down by the troubled 30-year Treasury auction and Evergrande moving into the spotlight somewhat again. VIX managed another upswing, and doesn‘t point to the S&P 500 having gotten to an excessively bearish positioning just yet.
I think some treading the water before stocks make up their mind, is most likely next. The downswing doesn‘t appear to be totally over, but we have arguably seen the greater part of it already. Tech isn‘t yet stabilized, but the increasing volume spells a pause in selling. I‘m still looking for clues to the bond markets.
And it‘s clear that not even higher rates can sink the precious metals run – neither the late day rush to the dollar had that power. Miners continue behaving, and their daily black candle doesn‘t scare me – the realization of inflation not having peaked, and being as stubborn as I had been pounding the table since eternity, is working its magic:
(…) inflation expectations are moving higher – the more you shorten the maturity, the higher they go, let alone RINF, their key ETF. Markets will be proven very wrong about the transitory inflation complacency – inflation rates aren‘t going to decline if you just leave them alone. And taper coupled with rate hikes hesitancy won‘t do the trick either.
S&P 500 is still primed to go higher – the only question is the shape of the current consolidation. Liquidity is still ample, the banking sector is strong, and the Russell 2000 isn‘t really retreating.
Precious metals are consolidating – it‘s almost a pre-CPI ritual, but under the surface, the pressure to go higher keeps building. I‘m looking for a strong Dec in gold and silver, with unyielding oil and copper gradually waking up. Cryptos aren‘t taking prisoners either.
Crude oil is well bid in the $78 till $80 zone, and would overcome $85 – we aren‘t looking at a reversal, but at temporary upside rejection. Likewise copper would kick in with vengeance, and the shallow crypto consolidations are barely worth mentioning at all.
Sunday, November 14, 2021
US Economy & Stock Market Addicted to Deficit Spending / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2021
By: Nadeem_Walayat
Want to know what's driving the stock market into the stratosphere? US Deficit Spending! (actually twin deficits including Trade).
Here's the Dow divided by the annual US budget deficit. Usually the lower the reading the better the prospects for the stock market because the stocks are being fuelled by rampant money printing deficit spending that is being monetized by he central bank on an epic scale.
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Saturday, November 13, 2021
Stock Market AI mega-trend Stocks Big Picture / Stock-Markets / Tech Stocks
By: Nadeem_Walayat
Just pause for a moment and take in the chart in this video - the message one should be receiving loud and clear is that I expect this bull market to run for many more years, whilst my best guess a year ago was that it would top in early 2027, as long as run away valuations moderate during 2022 then I don't see why this should still not remain as the big picture, thus the bull market could extend to 18 years from it's March 2009 low!
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Friday, November 12, 2021
How Emerging Markets ETF Followed a Classic Elliott Wave Pattern / Stock-Markets / Emerging Markets
By: EWI
Here's what happened after the completion of a "bullish triangle"
A Charles Schwab survey shows that 15% of today's retail investors started investing in 2020.
And, regarding 2021, an August 2 CNBC headline said:
New investors are jumping into the market
So, when you combine the influx from this year and last, that adds up to a lot of new investors.
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Thursday, November 11, 2021
Financial Crisis 2.0 Checklist - China Crisis, Stagflation, Stocks Bubble, Reverse Repo... / Stock-Markets / Financial Crisis 2021
By: Nadeem_Walayat
China's property market is collapsing but the only data we have at present is anecdotal from the property developer canaries in the coal mine which have been under extreme distress for several months, with now dozens defaulting on their debts triggering fire sales of housing stock to raise revenues as they desperately fight to stay alive in the face of impending debt and interest payments, playing their part in the brewing Financial Crisis 2.0.
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Thursday, November 11, 2021
Dow Stock Market Trend Analysis / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2021
By: Nadeem_Walayat
This is part 3 of my extensive analysis that maps out the stock markets trend into Mid 2022 - Stock Market FOMO Hits September Brick Wall - Dow Trend Forecast Sept 2021 to May 2022
Part 1 - Stock Market FOMO Going into Crash Season
Part 2 - Why Most Stocks May Go Nowhere for the Next 10 Years!
Contents:
- Stock Market Forecast 2021 Review
- Stock Market AI mega-trend Big Picture
- US Economy and Stock Market Addicted to Deficit Spending
- US Economy Has Been in an Economic Depression Since 2008
- Inflation and the Crazy Crypto Markets
- Inflation Consequences for the Stock Market
- FED Balance Sheet
- Weakening Stock Market Breadth
- Why Most Stocks May Go Nowhere for the Next 10 Years!
- FANG Stocks
- Margin Debt
- Dow Short-term Trend Analysis
- Dow Annual Percent Change
- Dow Long-term Trend Analysis
- ELLIOTT WAVES Analysis
- Stocks and 10 Year Bond Yields
- SEASONAL ANALYSIS
- Short-term Seasonal Trend
- US Presidential Cycle
- Best Time of Year to Invest in Stocks
- 2021 - 2022 Seasonal Investing Pattern
- Formulating a Stock Market Trend Forecast
- Dow Stock Market Trend Forecast Sept 2021 to May 2022 Conclusion
- Investing fundamentals
- IBM Continuing to Revolutionise Computing
- AI Stocks Portfolio Current State
- My Late October Stocks Buying Plan
- HIGH RISK STOCKS - Invest and Forget!
- Afghanistan The Next Chinese Province, Australia Living on Borrowed Time
- CHINA! CHINA! CHINA!
- Evergrande China's Lehman's Moment
- Aukus Ruckus
Thursday, November 11, 2021
Stock Market Great Profitable Runs / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2021
By: Monica_Kingsley
S&P 500 pause goes on, and bonds support more of it to come. Tech keeps thus far the high ground gained, but value is showing signs of very short-term weakness – and yields haven‘t retreated yesterday really. The correct view of the stock market action is one of microrotations unfolding in a weakening environment – one increasingly fraught with downside risks.
To be clear, I‘m not looking for a sizable correction, but a very modest one both in time and price. It‘s a question of time, and I think it would be driven by tech weakness as the sector has reached lofty levels. It‘ll go higher over time still, but this is the time for value and smallcaps in the medium term.
The dollar though isn‘t putting much pressure on stock, commodity or precious metals prices at the moment – such were my yesterday‘s words:
(…) when the dollar starts rolling over to the downside (I‘m looking at the early Dec debt ceiling drama to trigger it off), emerging markets would love that. And commodities with precious metals too, of course – sensing the upcoming greenback weakness has been part and parcel of the gold and silver resilience of late. Precious metals are only getting started, but the greatest fireworks would come early spring 2022 when the Fed‘s failure to act on inflation becomes broadly acknowledged.
For now, they‘re still getting away with the transitory talking points, and chalking it down to supply chain issues. As if these could solve the balance sheet expansion or fresh (most probably again short-dated) Treasuries issuance (come Dec) – the Fed is also way behind other central banks in raising rates. Canada, Mexico and many others have already moved while UK and Australia are signalling readiness – the U.S. central bank is joined by ECB in hesitating.
And that‘s what precious metals would be increasingly sniffing out. Commodities are joining in the post-taper celebrations, and my prior Tuesday‘s market assessments are coming to fruition one by one. Oil is swinging higher and hasn‘t topped, copper is coming back to life, and cryptos aren‘t in a waiting mood either.
Thursday, November 11, 2021
Sentiment Speaks: How Wrong You Are Mr. Market / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2021
By: Avi_Gilburt
So, I decided to read yet another article calling for a market crash. Needless to say, the body of the article offered nothing of true substance upon which I cared to comment, and I was saddened by the several minutes of time I wish I could have gotten back. That is, until I read the comments section, which provided me fodder to write this article.
“News flash, that bull market ended last year. We're in the beginning stages of a new one.”
“That crash is still going on, the market just hasn't caught up with it yet”
“Article #512 on SA in 2021 about the upcoming crash. Eventually, they will all be right. I do nothing different ever. I believe in my investments and I ride out crashes and corrections. Have cash available to buy which are wealth building opportunities. I always feel sorry for the poor panic sellers who miss out on so many gains because they are out of the market. It is only a loss if you sell. And, the market will come back and make new highs 100% of the time. This is an historical fact.”
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Wednesday, November 10, 2021
Financial Crisis 2.0 Checklist - The China Syndrome / Stock-Markets / Financial Crisis 2021
By: Nadeem_Walayat
China's property market is collapsing but the only data we have at present is anecdotal from the property developer canaries in the coal mine which have been under extreme distress for several months, with now dozens defaulting on their debts triggering fire sales of housing stock to raise revenues as they desperately fight to stay alive in the face of impending debt and interest payments, playing their part in the brewing Financial Crisis 2.0.
Financial Crisis 2.0 Checklist
- China housing market in distress - CHECK
- China's economy slowing - CHECK
- US Economy slowing - CHECK
- Brewing STAGFLATION - Slowing economy coupled with rising prices - CHECK
- Black Swan Event - Crisis at the ports - CHECK
- Economic Models busted - Workers refusing to return to work not factored into Economic models - CHECK
- REVERSE REPO MARKET - Banks desperate to swap deposit liabilities for T-bills collateral so as to lower capital requirements which has drained the capital markets of over $1 trillion - CHECK
- STOCK MARKET BUBBLE - Valuations have lost touch with reality - CHECK
- FED TAPERING into a Weakening Economy - Huge Risk of a valuation reset - CHECK
- IMPEMDING DOOM! - The relentless march of the Climate Change Mega-trend where all that the worlds leaders did at COP26 was Blah Blah Blah - CHECK!
Wednesday, November 10, 2021
Stock Market Long and Short-term Seasonal Trends / Stock-Markets / Seasonal Trends
By: Nadeem_Walayat
SEASONAL ANALYSIS
The seasonal pattern suggests after a pause in Feb, higher into late April, then correct from early May into late June followed by a volatile summer terminating in a swing low during September that should set the scene for a bull run into the Christmas Holidays with of course intra month volatility during October that tends to resolve to the upside just as the perma-bears are crowing at their loudest that the end is neigh.
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Wednesday, November 10, 2021
Stocks and 10 Year Bond Yields / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2021
By: Nadeem_Walayat
The basic pattern is for falling yields to be bearish for stocks whilst rising yields are bullish for stocks. The reason being is that investors are selling bonds to buy stocks hence yields and stocks rise.
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Tuesday, November 09, 2021
Dow Stock Market ELLIOTT WAVES Trend Forecast / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2021
By: Nadeem_Walayat
ELLIOTT WAVES
Every high is the fifth of the fifth of the fifth! until the market fails to follow through and on we march with the next high then the next high, which is why I take Elliott Wave Theory with a mountain of salt.
My Elliott Wave pattern of Feb 2009 has proven remarkably accurate (as did the pattern before that), see being skeptical works! It's when people think they have found the holy grail when things start to go wrong!
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Tuesday, November 09, 2021
Stock Market Bullish Trend Continues / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2021
By: Andre_Gratian
Current Position of the Market
SPX Long-term trend: The 4540 projection which had been in effect since the March 2020 low has now been reached but appears to have been only an intermediate target. Higher levels should now be reached before an important top is struck.
SPX Intermediate trend: An intermediate correction has ended and given way to another intermediate uptrend.
Analysis of the short-term trend is done daily with the help of hourly charts. They are important adjuncts to the analysis of daily and weekly charts which determine longer market trends.
Tuesday, November 09, 2021
Stock Market Dow Long-term Trend Analysis / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2021
By: Nadeem_Walayat
The Dow has barely had any significant correction in now approaching a year, chugging along the upper resistance trend line for the past 6 months.
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Monday, November 08, 2021
Stock Market Dow Annual Percent Change Analysis / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2021
By: Nadeem_Walayat
The Dow in percentage terms is well on it's way to retreating from it's most overbought state in decades, what usually tends to happen is that the Dow percent touches or more usually crosses below the red bar and for the bull market to resume would need to cross back above the red bar.How far would the Dow need to fall to fulfill this requirement in the allotted Sept / Oct correction time window? Probably to around 28k. However the alternative is that the Dow stays put around 34k to 35k for the next 6 months, which does not seem probable, so this indicator is suggesting a swift sharp drop to possibly as low as 28k within the next few weeks!
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Thursday, November 04, 2021
Why Most Stocks May Go Nowhere for the Next 10 Years! / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2021
By: Nadeem_Walayat
Dear Reader
This is part 2 of my extensive analysis that maps out the stock markets trend into Mid 2022 w- Stock Market FOMO Hits September Brick Wall - Dow Trend Forecast Sept 2021 to May 2022
Part 1 - Stock Market FOMO Going into Crash Season
Contents:
- Stock Market Forecast 2021 Review
- Stock Market AI mega-trend Big Picture
- US Economy and Stock Market Addicted to Deficit Spending
- US Economy Has Been in an Economic Depression Since 2008
- Inflation and the Crazy Crypto Markets
- Inflation Consequences for the Stock Market
- FED Balance Sheet
- Weakening Stock Market Breadth
- Why Most Stocks May Go Nowhere for the Next 10 Years!
- FANG Stocks
- Margin Debt
- Dow Short-term Trend Analysis
- Dow Annual Percent Change
- Dow Long-term Trend Analysis
- ELLIOTT WAVES Analysis
- Stocks and 10 Year Bond Yields
- SEASONAL ANALYSIS
- Short-term Seasonal Trend
- US Presidential Cycle
- Best Time of Year to Invest in Stocks
- 2021 - 2022 Seasonal Investing Pattern
- Formulating a Stock Market Trend Forecast
- Dow Stock Market Trend Forecast Sept 2021 to May 2022 Conclusion
- Investing fundamentals
- IBM Continuing to Revolutionise Computing
- AI Stocks Portfolio Current State
- My Late October Stocks Buying Plan
- HIGH RISK STOCKS - Invest and Forget!
- Afghanistan The Next Chinese Province, Australia Living on Borrowed Time
- CHINA! CHINA! CHINA!
- Evergrande China's Lehman's Moment
- Aukus Ruckus
Tuesday, November 02, 2021
Stock Market Nearing Short-term High / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2021
By: Andre_Gratian
Current Position of the Market
SPX Long-term trend: The 4540 projection which had been in effect since the March 2020 low has now been reached but appears to have been only an intermediate target. Higher levels should now be reached before an important top is struck.
SPX Intermediate trend: An intermediate correction has ended and given way to another intermediate uptrend.
Analysis of the short-term trend is done daily with the help of hourly charts. They are important adjuncts to the analysis of daily and weekly charts which determine longer market trends.
Monday, November 01, 2021
Profit-Taking After Earnings May Send Stock Prices Lower / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2021
By: Paul_Rejczak
Stocks retraced their short-term decline yesterday, but today we may see a lower opening following the earnings releases. Is this a topping pattern?
The S&P 500 index gained 0.98% on Thursday, Oct. 28, as it retraced its whole Tuesday’s-Wednesday’s decline to the support level of 4,550. It got back to the Tuesday’s record high of 4,598.53 yesterday. The daily close was just 2 points below that level. The stock market is still reacting to quarterly corporate earnings releases. Yesterday we got the releases from AAPL and AMZN, among others. But the first reaction to their numbers was negative. The market seems overbought in the short-term it is most likely fluctuating within a topping pattern.
The nearest important support level is at 4,550, and the next support level is at 4,520-4,525, marked by the previous Wednesday’s daily gap up of 4,520.40-4,524.40. On the other hand, the resistance level is at around 4,600, marked by the new record high. Despite reaching new record highs, the S&P 500 remained below a very steep week-long upward trend line, as we can see on the daily chart (chart by courtesy of http://stockcharts.com):
Monday, November 01, 2021
Wild Choppy Stock Market Moves / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2021
By: Monica_Kingsley
One-sided S&P 500 session, perhaps a bit too much – the bulls are likely to face issues extending gains when VIX is examined. The stock market sentiment remains mixed, and one could easily be pardoned for expecting larger gains on yesterday‘s magnitute of the dollar slump. And long-dated Treasuries barely moved – their daily candle approximates nicely the volatility one as both give the impression of wanting to move a bit higher while their Thursday‘s move was a countertrend one.
Not even value was able to surge past its Wednesday‘s setback, which makes me think the bears can return easily. At the same time, tech stepped into the void, and had a positive day, balancing the dowwnside S&P 500 risks significantly. The very short-term outlook in stocks is unclear, and choppy trading between yesterday‘s highs and 4,550 shouldn‘t be surprising today.
At the same time, precious metals could have had a much stronger day – but the sentiment was risk-off in spite of the tanking dollar and doubted yields as the rising tech and gold at the expense of silver illustrate. Miners recent outperformance was absent just as much as commodities vigor with the exception of copper. And it‘s more celebrations in the red metal following its steep and far reaching correction, that‘s the part of missing ingredients as much as fresh inflation fears (yes, adding to risk-off mood, inflation expectations declined yesterday).
Sunday, October 31, 2021
Why Most Stocks May Go Nowhere for the Next 10 Years! / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2021
By: Nadeem_Walayat
Here's why PE ratio's matter as the following chart shows the return 10 years forward from the starting average PE i.e if the stock market is trading on an average PE of 27 than can basically be expected to go nowhere for the next 10 years. Whilst the lower the PE the higher the expected return (on average), where the safe zone for investing is at a starting PE of between 10 and 20.
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Sunday, October 31, 2021
Inflationary Wonderland / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2021
By: Gary_Tanashian
Inflation has permeated the macro markets; where to from here?
Apologies in advance for some of the possibly confusing content to follow. But if this were easy anyone could do it, eh? There are a lot of balls in the air; balls known as inflation vs. deflation and most of all time frames.
The media present inflation as this guy picking out higher priced fruit. Wait til he gets to the meat department! You can click the graphic for the article at CNBC.
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Saturday, October 30, 2021
Stock Market Volaility - What is Contango in the VIX? / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2021
By: Chris_Vermeulen
If you are new to trading or have been trading stock but are interested in options, you can find more information at The Technical Traders – Options Trading Signals Service. The head option’s trading specialist Neil Szczepanski who has been trading options for almost 20 years sends out real live trade alerts on real trades with real money. Come check it out here: TheTechnicalTraders.com
I have been trading options and coaching / mentoring other new options traders for years. I have seen new traders who were lucky and ended up with some winning trades and others who were so frustrated and on the verge of giving up. I have seen it all. One of the things I have noticed is that very few people understand the VIX or AKA the fear gauge to the markets.
Many know that it is a measure of fear but they don’t really understand what it is and how it is constructed. If you are an options trader, I would argue it is very important that you as a trader understand what the VIX is and how it works.
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Friday, October 29, 2021
What Do The Current Earnings Reports Tell Us About The Stock Market? / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2021
By: Avi_Gilburt
I am going to let you in on one of my pet peeves this week: I abhor intellectual dishonesty in analysis. And, earnings season always brings to light some wonderful examples.
I was recently told quite confidently by another contributor that the direction of a stock is based upon its earnings. I know this is a common view within the market, but it is far from the truth.
While everyone thinks the market makes sense when a stock price rises on a good earnings report or drops on a bad earnings report, let’s try to understand what happens when a stock declines on good news. So, when blow-out earnings about a company are announced, yet the stock immediately begins to decline, the common theme we hear from the talking heads is that the earnings news was already “priced in” to the stock price. Right?
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Tuesday, October 26, 2021
Chinese Tech Stocks CCP Paranoia and Best AI Tech Stocks ETF / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2021
By: Nadeem_Walayat
Dear Reader
The stock market is continuing to rally on FOMO fumes with the Dow up 1.5% for August as the market enters the seasonally worst month of the year for stocks, followed by October, and we all know what October's tend to herald, especially for markets that have run well beyond every expectation and value metric that one can think of which is true for a wide spectrum of stocks from our AI tech giants right through to the junk that populates the likes of Cathy Woods ARK Funds, metrics as I covered in recent analysis such as the Reverse REPO market RED FLAG, then we have margin debt soaring to well beyond all previous market highs which actually would be expected in nominal terms given inflation, however Margin debt has also soared to new highs as a percentage of GDP 3.9% vs 3% in 2000. Here's another flashing RED LIGHT that of the market cap of negative earning stocks exceeding that of the dot com bubble, so folks enjoy your FOMO whilst it lasts, I personally have battened down the hatches for the hurricane that's coming our way that will likely blow novice investors out of the water, especially those who are investing on margin!
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Tuesday, October 26, 2021
Has Zillow’s Collapse Signaled A Warning For The Capital Markets? / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2021
By: Chris_Vermeulen
Watching Zillow (ZG) move from over $200 per share to recent levels below $90, reflecting a more than 55% collapse in price, while the housing market continues to rally may be an indication that traders/investors have already discounted the future peak in the US capital markets and Real Estate assets related to the current market environment. Zillow is not the only symbol experiencing this broad price decline. Redfin (RDFN) has also declined more than 54% over the past 7+ months.
Is The Peak In Real Estate Flippers Prices Sending A Strong Warning For Traders/Investors?
The peak in these stocks happened near February 16~22, 2021. This date, interestingly enough, aligns with a peak in global capital markets using my proprietary Smart Cash Index and a very clear peak in the Chinese Hang Seng Index.
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Tuesday, October 26, 2021
Stock Market New Intermediate uptrend / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2021
By: Andre_Gratian
Current Position of the Market
SPX Long-term trend: The 4540 projection which had been in effect since the March 2020 low has now been reached but appears to have been only an intermediate target. Higher levels should now be reached before an important top is struck.
SPX Intermediate trend: An intermediate correction has ended and given way to another intermediate uptrend.
Analysis of the short-term trend is done daily with the help of hourly charts. They are important adjuncts to the analysis of daily and weekly charts which determine longer market trends.
Monday, October 25, 2021
Stock Market Against Bond Market Odds / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2021
By: Monica_Kingsley
Such was the S&P 500 correction, how did you like it? The whiff of risk-off that I was looking for yesterday, was a very shallow one in stocks, and much deeper in real assets. What‘s remarkable about the stock market upswing, is that it was led by tech while value barely clung to its opening values – and yields rose yet again. But the dynamic is supposed to work the other way – even financials felt the pinch, but at least real estate rose.
Another characteristic worth noting is that the dollar increased yesterday too, and stocks didn‘t mind. The VIX closed almost at 15, which is its lowest value since the beginning of Jul. S&P 500 indeed didn‘t hesitate at 4,520, and broke above similarly to the prior turning point (that wasn‘t) at 4,420. I‘m letting the open long S&P 500 profits run as rising yields aren‘t yet a problem for stocks, and inflation isn‘t still strong enough to break the bulls‘ back – but inflation expectations keep rising, and that‘s a factor once again underpinning precious metals.
When a brief risk-off moment arrives though, commodities are to feel the pinch, and that‘s true also about silver as opposed to gold. Indeed yesterday, the yellow metal did much better than the white one. Copper corrected with a delay to the fresh LME trading measures, and quite profoundly given that the London stockpile represents only a day‘s worth of China factory copper consumption. The dust in the red metal hasn‘t yet settled, but black gold recovered smartly from the steep intraday drop to $81, dealing open oil profits – and the selling in oil stocks looks to be overdone on a daily basis. Finally, the Bitcoin setback I was looking for, happened, but doesn‘t spell the end of the crypto run – more cypto gains to enjoy.
Sunday, October 24, 2021
Inflation Consequences for the Stock Market, FED Balance Sheet / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2021
By: Nadeem_Walayat
Here's another indicator to pile on top of a mountain of indicators that I have been covering over the past few months all flashing RED . The S&P real terms dividend yield is now LESS than at the dot com bubble peak! In fact one would need to go back to the depths of the early 1980s' inflationary depression to reach such poor returns.
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Sunday, October 24, 2021
During a Market Mania, "no prudent professional is perceived to add value" / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2021
By: EWI
"I don't want to hear about it."
That's the general response from many new retail investors here in 2021 when a veteran stock market observer expresses any hint of caution about the stock market.
This lack of respect for sober reflections about the market has been exhibited before.
Indeed, as far back as 1997, in a Special Report titled "Bulls, Bears and Manias," The Elliott Wave Theorist, a monthly publication which provides analysis of financial markets and cultural trends, said:
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Sunday, October 24, 2021
Stock Market S&P500 Rallies Above $4400 – May Attempt To Advance To $4750~$4800 / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2021
By: Chris_Vermeulen
Two main factors are driving the rally in the US stock markets recently; retail traders buying the dip, and Q3:2021 earnings data is starting to shake away the concerns that resulted in the recent market rotation. Combine these activities with the start of the Christmas Rally phase (which usually starts sometime after mid/late-October and carries through into early January), and we have the making of a moderately strong potential price rally in the US major indexes over the next 60+ days.
The $4550 Level Is Critical Resistance For The S&P500
I’m highlighting this ES Daily & Weekly chart pattern, below, to share with you how important it is to see the ES break above the $4550 level – the past high price peak. If the markets are going to start a new rally headed into the 2021 Christmas season, then we need to see the ES continue to rally and break above the $4550 level. It is critically important that price breach the $4550 level and attempt a strong move higher if this bullish momentum persists.
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Thursday, October 21, 2021
Stock Market Animal Spirits Returning / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2021
By: Monica_Kingsley
S&P 500 prompt recovery confirms my bullish run thesis – above 4,520, and given my Feb announced year end target of 4,700, fresh ATHs are approaching. Get ready though for quite some volatility as the current lull won‘t last indefinitely – I‘m not looking for VIX at 15 to be broken to the downside on a closing basis, and wouldn‘t be surprised by another noticeable correction once the current upswing runs out of steam somewhat above prior ATHs.
So far so good, and the stock market run continues without marked credit markets confirmation as the risk-on turn there isn‘t complete (yet). Treasury yields aren‘t retreating, yet tech is the driver of the S&P 500 upswing while value keeps treading water. Encouragingly, financials do well – it‘s cyclicals‘ time, and the open S&P 500 long position is very solidly profitable already.
Commodities upswing continues, and precious metals (silver leading gold), are in the tow. Less so when it comes to silver, which is inspired by the great copper run. As if indeed silver was sniffing the copper awakening soon – strong copper long profits keep growing too. Crude oil refused to yield much ground, and any timid intraday move down, gets swiftly bought. Similarly cryptos aren‘t looking back.
Monday, October 18, 2021
Inflation Peaked Again, Right? / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2021
By: Monica_Kingsley
S&P 500 upswing continues, and is dealing with the 4,470 resistance – but the credit markets don‘t confirm. Still, that‘s rather a sign of stock market strength than of pending doom. The break back above the 50-day moving average has very good odds of sticking, and the sectoral performance bodes well for further advances. Financials and consumer discretionaries liked the daily upswing in yields while tech and real estates fared well regardless. VIX is likely to probe even lower values, it seems.
So, the open S&P 500 long position is working out well, and will likely continue to do so as higher yields just can‘t help the dollar rise. Inflation expectations are again turning up as we have moved from 1H 2021 Fed saying that inflation was transitory to the current phrase that inflation is transitory, but would last longer than we though. The next stage (arriving latest in Q1 2022) will likely be that inflation is sticky but we have tools to deal with it, followed by putting up a happy face that it‘s a good thing we have inflation after all.
Silver will likely keep leading gold, and the nearest target for the gold to silver ratio is 73. Crucially, miners keep confirming the upswing, and the copper example bodes well for silver as both metals are essential for the green economy, talking which means that crude oil is also likely to keep rising. Time to extend the commodity profits even more at a time when crypto gains keep doing great.
Reflation is slowly giving way to stagflation – GDP growth is slowing down while inflation isn‘t disappearing, to put it mildly. The copper upswing isn‘t so much a function of improving economy prospects but of record low stockpiles. Anyway, much more to look for in the commodities and precious metals bull markets that are likely to appreciate much more than stocks this decade.
Monday, October 18, 2021
Stock Market New Intermediate Bottom Forming? / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2021
By: Andre_Gratian
Current Position of the Market
SPX Long-term trend: The 4540 projection which had been in effect since the March 2020 low has now been reached, but it is too early to call for an end to the bull market which started in March 2009.
SPX Intermediate trend: An intermediate correction has started. Let’s see if it evolves into something more serious.
Analysis of the short-term trend is done daily with the help of hourly charts. They are important adjuncts to the analysis of daily and weekly charts which determine longer market trends.
Thursday, October 14, 2021
The Only way to Crush Inflation (not stocks) / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2021
By: Stephen_McBride
Folks are freaking out about inflation.
The US government’s own numbers show prices are rising at their fastest pace in 12 years…
Google searches for inflation hit their highest level ever last month…
You’re likely feeling it in your pocket too.
Tried to buy a car lately? If you can get your hands on one, it’ll cost you 40% more than last year.
Home prices are rising at their fastest pace in more than 30 years. And here in Ireland, the average heating bill is expected to jump $500 this winter.
Monday, October 11, 2021
Stock Market Wall of Worry Meets NFPs / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2021
By: Monica_Kingsley
S&P 500 reached my target, and then folded like a cheap suit – into an overnight correction, without attempting to overcome 4,420. As much as the prior advance was broad based, so was the retreat. Tech, value, credit markets – but the decline wasn‘t sold into heavily, and that means the bulls can recover. Still, sizable long profits had been taken overnight automatically, as neither the buyers nor the sellers got anywhere.
The non-farm payrolls thesis goes like this – unless the figure is truly disappointing, the Fed would have to execute on the practically promised Nov taper announcement. Treasury yields aren‘t though buying it, and have ventured higher on their own already, just as inflation expectations did. The debt ceiling has turned into a drama that wasn‘t as the can was kicked down the road into early Dec. The dollar didn‘t react much to the wrangling, but the selling will soon revisit the world reserve currency that is taking its time.
Commodities aren‘t budging, and cryptos continue appreciating while precious metals see encouraging, yet intermittent signs of life that would be delivered through monetary stance reevaluation (that equals no taking the foot off the gas pedal). More follow through is needed in gold and silver, and the white metal should lead the upswing. Copper did confirm it on a daily basis yesterday, but the red metal remains still internally weak – unlike oil that didn‘t even properly pierce the $75 level.
Monday, October 11, 2021
Stock Market Intermediate Correction Continues / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2021
By: Andre_Gratian
Current Position of the Market
SPX Long-term trend: The 4540 projection which had been in effect since the March 2020 low has now been reached, but it is too early to call for an end to the bull market which started in March 2009.
SPX Intermediate trend: An intermediate correction has started. Let’s see if it evolves into something more serious.
Analysis of the short-term trend is done daily with the help of hourly charts. They are important adjuncts to the analysis of daily and weekly charts which determine longer market trends.
Sunday, October 10, 2021
China / US Stock Markets Divergence / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2021
By: Nadeem_Walayat
After having tracked each another quite closely since the pandemic low, Chinese stocks started to diverge during March 2021. The mania infected investors in US markets look to strong US GDP growth of +6.3% and strong earnings growth of 49% as reasons to ignore the lofty price earnings multiples, crazy valuations for trillion dollar corporations and even more for the mid cap tech stocks that are the darlings of the likes of ARK Invest, trading on bubble valuations that are literally straight out of the dot com bubble era where just as was the case then many don't even make a profit and a large percentage of which never will!
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Friday, October 08, 2021
Stock Market FOMO Going into Crash Season / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2021
By: Nadeem_Walayat
Dear Reader
The stock market is continuing to rally on FOMO fumes with the Dow up 1.5% for August as the market enters the seasonally worst month of the year for stocks, followed by October, and we all know what October's tend to herald, especially for markets that have run well beyond every expectation and value metric that one can think of which is true for a wide spectrum of stocks from our AI tech giants right through to the junk that populates the likes of Cathy Woods ARK Funds, metrics as I covered in recent analysis such as the Reverse REPO market RED FLAG, then we have margin debt soaring to well beyond all previous market highs which actually would be expected in nominal terms given inflation, however Margin debt has also soared to new highs as a percentage of GDP 3.9% vs 3% in 2000. Here's another flashing RED LIGHT that of the market cap of negative earning stocks exceeding that of the dot com bubble, so folks enjoy your FOMO whilst it lasts, I personally have battened down the hatches for the hurricane that's coming our way that will likely blow novice investors out of the water, especially those who are investing on margin!
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Tuesday, October 05, 2021
Stock Market Correction: One More Spark to Light the Fire? / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2021
By: P_Radomski_CFA
With earnings season beginning in October, a profound correction of the S&P 500 could add fuel to the fire of the already well-supported U.S. dollar.
While the USD Index was largely flat on Sep. 30, the EUR/USD closed at a new 2021 low. And because the currency pair accounts for nearly 58% of the movement of the USD Index, its performance is material. Moreover, while I’ve been warning for months that the Fed and the ECB are worlds apart, the EUR/USD still hasn’t priced in the magnitude of the divergence.
Monday, October 04, 2021
NASDAQ Stock Market Head-n-Shoulders Warns Of Market Weakness – Critical Topping Pattern / Stock-Markets / Tech Stocks
By: Chris_Vermeulen
The unique technical setup in the NASDAQ over the past 30+ days is warning that the markets have lost momentum and may attempt to break below the $14,700, the Neck Line of the Head-n-Shoulders pattern. This unique price setup crept up over the past 20+ days as the US markets started to move away from upward price momentum as the Chinese and US market dynamics started to shift away from the continued reflation trade expectations. What does this Head-n-Shoulders pattern mean for traders and investors right now?
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Friday, October 01, 2021
The Guide to Building a Design Portfolio Online / Stock-Markets / Investing 2021
By: Sumeet_Manhas
Building a design portfolio is much like the chicken-and-egg scenario: You need one to secure a job, yet without some professional experience to bolster your portfolio, you may struggle to find projects to display. It is not uncommon to feel stuck, regardless of whether you are a graduate, in a school, or in a position where you want to be hired. You can nonetheless find unusual ways to make work that is worth displaying when you break away from a customary attitude about how to create a portfolio. This article includes a few essential tips on how you can start with a portfolio website.
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Thursday, September 30, 2021
Stock Market Gauntlet to the Fed / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2021
By: Monica_Kingsley
S&P 500 was unable to sustain intraday gains, and both VIX and volume show the bears want to move. Arguably, the key market to watch, are the Treasuries – the 10-year yield continues rising, knocking on the 1.50% door again. On the day of Powell‘s testimony, that‘s quite a message to the central bank.
As I wrote yesterday:
(…) Rising yields (the market believes in taper, it appears) across the board, with high yield corporate bonds holding up much better than quality debt instruments – I have seen stronger risk-on constellations really.
Importantly, the huge weekly jump in Treasury yields (the 10-year yield jumped over 20 basis points to 1.47%) failed to lift the dollar, which says a lot given the risk-off entry to the week. Meanwhile, the Fed jawboning continues, and the bigger picture leaves the ambitious Nov tapering suspect.
At the same time, the Fed‘s foot is to a large degree off the gas pedal, and even global liquidity is shrinking. New taxes are kicking in, job market woes are persisting, inflation isn‘t going away any time soon, challenged supply chains are forcing globalization into reverse, workforce is shrinking, GDP growth is decelerating, and no fresh fiscal initiatives are on the horizon – sounds like a recipe for stagflation.
The Fed can adjust (and even reverse) the tapering projections any time it pleases – it has played the job market card already. The dollar failing to gain traction though, is telling. Not even commodities as such are rolling over to the downside – actually, energies (oil, natural gas) have been the star performers (even within the S&P 500 sectors), and agrifoods are well positioned to do great as well. Copper and precious metals are feeling the short-term heat (still, the red metal offered a great entry point earlier today, making the open position profitable from the get-go), but the metals would stop reacting to the bad news while ignoring negative real rates (yes, transitory inflation is another myth the market place believes in) at some point. All roads lead to gold – inflationary and deflationary ones alike.
Wednesday, September 29, 2021
Stock Market Wishing Away Inflation / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2021
By: Monica_Kingsley
S&P 500 bears did indeed move, and the dip wasn‘t much bought. VIX with its prominent upper knot may not have said the last word yet, but a brief consolidation of the key volatility metrics is favored next. Even the overnight rebound (dead cat bounce, better said), is losing traction, prompting me to issue a stock market update to subscribers hours ago – fresh short profits can keep growing:
(…) Following yesterday’s slide, the S&P 500 upswing appears running into headwinds as credit markets keep putting pressure on the Fed. Rising dollar is thus far having little effect on commodities, and precious metals have retraced a sizable part of the intraday downswing. Tech remains more vulnerable than value, and this correction appears as not (at all) yet over.
While the dollar upswing hasn‘t been strongest over the prior week, higher yields are causing it to rise somewhat still. The commodity complex is remarkably resilient – the open long positions are likely to keep doing well – and I don‘t mean only energies. Copper is holding up in the mid 4.20s while precious metals are giving the bears a break – a tentative one, but nonetheless encouraging – as I have written yesterday:
(…) the metals would stop reacting to the bad news while ignoring negative real rates (yes, transitory inflation is another myth the market place believes in) at some point. All roads lead to gold – inflationary and deflationary ones alike.
Tuesday, September 28, 2021
Reflation vs. Economic Stagflation / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2021
By: Monica_Kingsley
S&P 500 didn‘t give in to the opening weakness, and eked out minor gains. There was no selling into the close either – the table looks set for the muddle through to continue on Monday. Tech and value – uninspiring on the day, and the same could be said of the credit markets. Rising yields (the market believes in taper, it appears) across the board, with high yield corporate bonds holding up much better than quality debt instruments – I have seen stronger risk-on constellations really.
Importantly, the huge weekly jump in Treasury yields (the 10-year yield jumped over 20 basis points to 1.47%) failed to lift the dollar, which says a lot given the risk-off entry to the week. Meanwhile, the Fed jawboning continues, and the bigger picture leaves the ambitious Nov tapering suspect.
At the same time, the Fed‘s foot is to a large degree off the gas pedal, and even global liquidity is shrinking. New taxes are kicking in, job market woes are persisting, inflation isn‘t going away any time soon, challenged supply chains are forcing globalization into reverse, workforce is shrinking, GDP growth is decelerating, and no fresh fiscal initiatives are on the horizon – sounds like a recipe for stagflation.
Monday, September 27, 2021
China, India: Richer or Poorer? The Asian Pacific Financial Markets Forecast / Stock-Markets / Asian Economies
By: EWI
Dear Reader,
Today, both China and India are very different countries than 10 years ago. In so many ways, they are wealthier, safer and better.
But will these trends continue?
Our friends at Elliott Wave International are inviting you to get well-researched answers when you read this free excerpt ($59 value) from their September Asian-Pacific Financial Forecast.
See where China and India are in their Elliott wave patterns – and what that means for business and life in general.
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Monday, September 27, 2021
Stock Market Bubble Valuations Dot Com 2000 vs 2021 / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2021
By: Nadeem_Walayat
The US stock market has been content to rally to new highs with many stocks going to the Moon including most of our AI tech giants, a rally that I have been distributing into to the extent that I have now sold 80% of my holdings in the Top 6 AI stocks in my portfolio some of which I have been accumulating for over a decade (Microsoft). The primary objective of this analysis is the determine where we stand in terms of THE TOP, after all, all bull markets eventually do top either ending with a CRASH (1987) or a bear market (2000 and 2007). So what to hold and what to sell is the question I am asking myself, with a view to riding out a potential bear market / crash, where this analysis deploys a new automated metric of individual stock SELLING LEVELs so that one better knows where one stands in terms of ones portfolio, all in just one table. After all the risk we all fear is that of a 2000 style collapse that sends stocks lower for the next 20 years! Remember that bear market bottomed with a 85% collapse for tech stocks! Yes, one could say the likes of Amazon, Microsoft, Apple had become dirt cheap, but that would have been a very painful and prolonged discounting event. So a case of balancing the risks of letting some stocks ride whilst cashing in those that will pay a heavy price for their over exuberance all whilst being aware of the AI mega-trend trundling along in the background.
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Monday, September 27, 2021
Stock Market Retest of the High? / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2021
By: Andre_Gratian
Current Position of the Market
SPX Long-term trend: There is some evidence that we are still in the bull market which started in 2009 and which could continue until major cycles take over, and it ends. The 4550 projection which had been in effect since the March 2020 low has now been reached, but there is still no sign of a major top.
SPX Intermediate trend: A retest of the high is underway.
Analysis of the short-term trend is done daily with the help of hourly charts. They are important adjuncts to the analysis of daily and weekly charts which determine longer market trends.
Saturday, September 25, 2021
Tech Stocks Bubble Valuations 2000 vs 2021 / Stock-Markets / Tech Stocks
By: Nadeem_Walayat
The US stock market has been content to rally to new highs with many stocks going to the Moon including most of our AI tech giants, a rally that I have been distributing into to the extent that I have now sold 80% of my holdings in the Top 6 AI stocks in my portfolio some of which I have been accumulating for over a decade (Microsoft). The primary objective of this analysis is the determine where we stand in terms of THE TOP, after all, all bull markets eventually do top either ending with a CRASH (1987) or a bear market (2000 and 2007). So what to hold and what to sell is the question I am asking myself, with a view to riding out a potential bear market / crash, where this analysis deploys a new automated metric of individual stock SELLING LEVELs so that one better knows where one stands in terms of ones portfolio, all in just one table. After all the risk we all fear is that of a 2000 style collapse that sends stocks lower for the next 20 years! Remember that bear market bottomed with a 85% collapse for tech stocks! Yes, one could say the likes of Amazon, Microsoft, Apple had become dirt cheap, but that would have been a very painful and prolonged discounting event. So a case of balancing the risks of letting some stocks ride whilst cashing in those that will pay a heavy price for their over exuberance all whilst being aware of the AI mega-trend trundling along in the background.
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Saturday, September 25, 2021
Markets Deflationary Winds Howling / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2021
By: Monica_Kingsley
Without looking back, S&P 500 rallied in what feels as a short squeeze in ongoing risk-off environment. Daily rise in yields was not only unable to propel the dollar, but resulted in a much higher upswing in tech than value stocks – and that‘s a little fishy, especially when the long upper knot in VTV is considered.
The post-Fed relief simply took the bears for a little ride, and the Evergrande yuan bond repayment calmed the nerves. As if though the real estate sector was universally healthy – I think copper prices and the BHP stock price tell a different story. Things will still get interested in spite of PBOC moving in. The current macroeconomic environment will be very hard (economically and politically) to tighten into – have you noticed that the Turkish central bank unexpectedly cut rates?
Friday, September 24, 2021
Stock Market Rescued by the Fed Again? / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2021
By: Monica_Kingsley
S&P 500 recovered only to dive again – carving out a base? The bulls are attempting to, but neither value, nor tech, nor the credit markets are convincing. The dust is settling though, and the bears are equally in need of a fresh reason to sell – the intraday tug of war is entirely reasonable as Evergrande failed to spook the markets more. Just wait for what happens when the markets come face to face with another unacknowledged event of this magnitude. In our era, it‘s about the contagion effect, manic-depressive market psychology, and uncertainty of the impact.
It‘s not only about China real estate cooling down, spilling over to Hong Kong. Wtll the House approval on the bill to suspend fresh borrowing obstacles and avoid a partial shutdown do? What would the Senate say – and then everyone as the tax tsunami keeps approaching? Global liquidity isn‘t rising after all either.
Fed taper is a side show, but still one that too many are glued to. The dollar would suffer if it doesn‘t materialize later today – and it won‘t be announced, which would make precious metals rejoice.
Back to stocks, these are also likely to welcome no taper. The Fed has been already tightening (which means these days it was decreasing the pace of expansion) through the back door, bringing down inflation expectations in spite of the real world input costs, shipping rates and frail supply chains challenges on top of the job market issues. Transitory inflation is still the mainstream thesis – the shift to real assets will become more accentuated once the realization of a higher and entrenched inflation arrives. And it‘s not about real estate and owners‘ equivalent rent either.
Friday, September 24, 2021
Evergrande not a Minsky Moment / Stock-Markets / Financial Crisis 2021
By: Richard_Mills
The selloff in stocks that started last week and continued on Monday has some market observers wondering whether this is a “Minsky Moment”.
This refers to the idea that periods of bullish speculation will eventually lead to a crisis, wherein a sudden decline in optimism causes a spectacular market crash.
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Thursday, September 23, 2021
Global Stock Markets Topped 60 Days Before the US Stocks Peaked / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2021
By: Chris_Vermeulen
In the first part of this research article, I highlighted a number of factors and technical charts that suggest the true peak in the US/Global markets happened in April/May 2021. Although the US markets continued to trend higher after that peak, the global markets, as well as a number of key indicators, suggested the bullish price trend had reached a peak and started to weaken after the April/May 2021 peak.
My assumption is this data shows the markets entered a highly speculative phase of trading after the November 2020 elections. History shows us that the 12+ months prior to a US Presidential election are usually filled with uncertainty and sideways market volatility. Then, just after the US Presidential election is completed, the markets usually enter into a trending phase related to the expectations and promises of the newly elected US President. 2020 was no different in this process. What was different was the fact that the US Federal Reserve was still pouring trillions into supporting the post-COVID global economic recovery. So this post US Presidential election rally may have become a super-charged speculative rally phase with the US Fed backing the trends.
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Wednesday, September 22, 2021
Stock Market FOMO Hits September Brick Wall - Evergrande China's Lehman's Moment / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2021
By: Nadeem_Walayat
Dear Reader
My last analysis posted on the 1st of September proved to be a timely reminder that an historically overbought stock market on virtually every measure was entering into the seasonally worst trading month of the year that at the very least suggests to prepare for a significant correction with each passing day and there was even a possibility of market panic event, a CRASH for which there are countless indicators that I have been covering since Mid June such as what is taking place in the Reverse Repo market of a defacto brewing Financial Crisis 2.0, the magnitude of which we will only realise with the benefit of hindsight, hence why I sold out of 80% of my Top AI stocks during the summer months with the last being to exit IBM leaving my AI stocks portfolio in it's current state, devoid for the first time in many years of the likes of Microsoft Apple, Nvidia and Amazon, with holdings of Google and Facebook greatly reduced.
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Wednesday, September 22, 2021
Stock Market Time to Buy the Dip? / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2021
By: Monica_Kingsley
S&P 500 dived, yet the slide was bought before the closing bell. Does the long lower knot mean the selling is over? It‘s too early to say as following similar momentuous days, it takes 1-3 days for the dust to clear usually. The selling pressure might not be over, and the question is how far will it reach on a fresh attempt – 4,350s look attainable.
There, the fate of this correction would be decided, but we‘re on the verge of the historically more volatile part of Sep, and tomorrow‘s FOMC would up the ante. The dollar though was unable to rally, to keep intraday gains – on one hand a certain show of strength given the retreat in Treasury yields, on the other hand, proof of stiff headwinds as the world reserve currency isn‘t in a bull market. I‘m leaning towards the latter explanation.
As stocks rebound in what may still turn out to be a dead cat bounce, commodities got clobbered too – just as cryptos did. Gold attracted safe haven demand as money flew to Treasuries as well. Miners with silver holding ground, are a good sign for the sector – the overwhelmingly negative sentiment looks getting long in the tooth.
Tuesday, September 21, 2021
Evergrande China's Lehman's Moment, Tip of the Ice Berg in Financial Crisis 2.0 / Stock-Markets / Financial Crisis 2021
By: Nadeem_Walayat
Financial Crisis 2.0 continues to unfold where China's giant property developer Evergrande is the canary in the coal mine, tip of the ice-berg, China's Lehman's moment that looks set to default on $300 billion of debts. Here's what the giant property developers stock price looks like.
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Tuesday, September 21, 2021
The Fed Is Playing The Biggest Game Of Chicken In History / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2021
By: Avi_Gilburt
Yeah, I know everyone is so certain that inflation is what we will be battling for the foreseeable future. The main reason why many of you are so certain we are battling inflation is because you are seeing prices rise on food and other items for which you shop. But, do rising prices really mean we are dealing with the true economic definition of inflation?
To be honest, I really don’t care what you call it. It makes no difference to me since our analysis tells me when to get in and out of the market. You see, I and many others correctly recognize that the stock market leads the economy. So economic definitions have no bearing upon our forward-looking expectations regarding the stock market. And, I have explained why this is the case in past articles:
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Tuesday, September 21, 2021
Focus on Stock Market Short-term Cycle / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2021
By: Andre_Gratian
Current Position of the MarketSPX Long-term trend: There is some evidence that we are still in the bull market which started in 2009 and which could continue until major cycles take over, and it ends. The 4550 projection which had been in effect since the March 2020 low has now been reached, but there is still no sign of a major top.
SPX Intermediate trend: A Short-term SPX correction is underway.
Analysis of the short-term trend is done daily with the help of hourly charts. They are important adjuncts to the analysis of daily and weekly charts which determine longer market trends.
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Monday, September 20, 2021
Stock Market FOMO Hits September CRASH Brick Wall - Dow Trend Forecast 2021 Review / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2021
By: Nadeem_Walayat
My last analysis posted on the 1st of September proved to be a timely reminder that an historically overbought stock market on virtually every measure was entering into the seasonally worst trading month of the year that at the very least suggests to prepare for a significant correction with each passing day and there was even a possibility of market panic event, a CRASH for which there are countless indicators that I have been covering since Mid June such as what is taking place in the Reverse Repo market of a defacto brewing Financial Crisis 2.0, the magnitude of which we will only realise with the benefit of hindsight, hence why I sold out of 80% of my Top AI stocks during the summer months with the last being to exit IBM leaving my AI stocks portfolio in it's current state, devoid for the first time in many years of the likes of Microsoft Apple, Nvidia and Amazon, with holdings of Google and Facebook greatly reduced.
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Sunday, September 19, 2021
Stock Market FOMO Hits September Brick Wall - Dow Trend Forecast 2021 Review / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2021
By: Nadeem_Walayat
My last analysis posted on the 1st of September proved to be a timely reminder that an historically overbought stock market on virtually every measure was entering into the seasonally worst trading month of the year that at the very least suggests to prepare for a significant correction with each passing day and there was even a possibility of market panic event, a CRASH for which there are countless indicators that I have been covering since Mid June such as what is taking place in the Reverse Repo market of a defacto brewing Financial Crisis 2.0, the magnitude of which we will only realise with the benefit of hindsight, hence why I sold out of 80% of my Top AI stocks during the summer months with the last being to exit IBM leaving my AI stocks portfolio in it's current state, devoid for the first time in many years of the likes of Microsoft Apple, Nvidia and Amazon, with holdings of Google and Facebook greatly reduced.
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Saturday, September 18, 2021
Stock Market Shaking Off the Taper Blues / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2021
By: Monica_Kingsley
S&P 500 recovered from the selling at open, but the picture is hardly one of universal strength. Tech rose while value erased half of the intraday decline, and high yield corporate bonds closed little changed. Risk-on seems as slowly returning unless you look at the retail sales surprise boosting the odds of Sep taper. Is it though really going to happen?
I continue to think the Fed won‘t move too far, too fast, and that no real action would follow later this month. The job creation isn‘t at its strongest, and yesterday brought us a daily overreaction to positive data, which coupled with the preceding manufacturing ones reveals that the moderation in economic growth would be indeed shallow and temporary. This daily panic was nowhere better seen than in gold and silver – neither USD nor yields moved much.
Unless the 4,440 level in S&P 500 is broken to the downside, stocks appear on the verge of yet another accumulation while commodities are best positioned to rise strongly (the Fed isn‘t mopping up excess liquidity, no). Crude oil hasn‘t spoken the last word, and looks ready to continue upwards following a little consolidation around $72. Copper‘s wild ride continues, and I‘m not looking for the red metal‘s 50-day moving average to start declining.
Saturday, September 18, 2021
Why a Financial Markets "Panic" May Be Just Around the Corner / Stock-Markets / Financial Crisis 2021
By: EWI
Here's why global investors should keep a close eye on "sight deposits"
Investors look to an array of indicators in hopes of determining what is next for the financial markets in which they are interested.
Some investors may focus entirely on "technical" indicators such as the Relative Strength Index (RSI), price levels of "support" or "resistance," or say, advancing vs. declining issues, just to name a few. As you probably know, there are many more technical indicators.
Market participants also look at sentiment readings such as mutual fund cash levels, investors' use of leverage, surveys and so on.
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Wednesday, September 15, 2021
Dow Stock Market Trend Forecasting Neural Nets Pattern Recognition / Stock-Markets / AI
By: Nadeem_Walayat
So far all attempts to predict the Dow via machine learning have failed, as mentioned above feeding nets with obvious data such as open, close, high, low and then a candle chart version does not work. In fact the neural net part is the easy part via the likes of Tensor Flow. The problem is with the data which as I explained earlier needs to be preprocessed i.e. feeding raw data into the networks as inputs ends up with noisy networks, if it did work then it would be easy to successfully train neural nets and they would be widespread instead as far as I am aware there aren't really any neural nets out there that can successfully trade stocks.
So what does preprocessing actually mean?
There are 2 ways to go about preprocessing data for stock market forecasts.
1. Pattern recognition
2. Trend Analysis preprocessing.
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Tuesday, September 14, 2021
Is This the "Kiss of Death" for the Stocks Bull Market? / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2021
By: EWI
Stock market prices usually decline after this occurs
Many market observers believe that the catalyst for the next bear market will be a piece of extraordinarily bad news.
However, Elliott Wave International has shown time and again that the stock market's price action is often "entirely detached from what most people assume are causal conditions."
Examples of stocks rising when the news is bad -- and falling when the news is good -- are so numerous that a library shelf of books would be inadequate to show a fair representation of them. For the most recent vivid example, just think back to March 2020, when the first wave of the pandemic hit and shuttered the entire global economy -- yet, stocks (around the world!) happily found a bottom and haven't looked back since.
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Tuesday, September 14, 2021
Where Are the Stock Market Fireworks? / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2021
By: Monica_Kingsley
Stocks and credit markets gave up promising opening gains, and it was only commodities that had a really good day. Seems like the beneficiary of inflation would be indeed real assets as I had been harping about so often, and that the S&P 500 is starting to run into headwinds. Not on account of taper expectations, which appear to have been indeed pushed to the Nov-Dec time window, but thanks to inflation. Whenever you start seeing heavyweights roll over to the downside, it‘s time to pay attention.
Yes, enter tech behemoths – worthwhile to watch. Stagflation would be a powerful environment to facilitate stock market declines – who could forget the 1974-5 slump? Real assets stand positioned to reap the rewards as the cost push inflation that I‘ve been discussing since early this year, is very much intact. Throw in some serious supply chain disruptions that won‘t be resolved this year, and all you end up with, is waiting for precious metals to catch up in the commodities appreciation – bringing in very nice profits in oil and copper… My total portfolio performance chart is at a fresh high!
Monday, September 13, 2021
SPX Base Projection Reached – End of the Line? / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2021
By: Andre_Gratian
Current Position of the Market
SPX Long-term trend: There is some evidence that we are still in the bull market which started in 2009 and which could continue into 2021 until major cycles take over, and it ends. A move up to ~4500 is possible before the current bull market makes a final top and SPX corrects into its next major cycle low due in 2023.
SPX Intermediate trend: SPX correction underway.
Analysis of the short-term trend is done daily with the help of hourly charts. They are important adjuncts to the analysis of daily and weekly charts which determine longer market trends.
Friday, September 10, 2021
The Inflation/Deflation debate wears on… / Stock-Markets / Inflation
By: Gary_Tanashian
Our 30 year Treasury yield ‘Continuum’ chart indicates that deflation is the dominant trend, but…
Steve Saville has written a post that got me thinking about carts and horses and more precisely, which comes before which. Is the inflationary horse pulling the deflationary cart up hill or is the deflationary cart leading the horse to drink from the shrinking liquidity pool periodically?
See The Crisis-Monetisation Cycle
In conclusion to this short post Steve asserts…
Read full article... Read full article...“The crisis-monetisation cycle doesn’t end in deflation. The merest whiff of deflation just encourages central bankers and politicians to do more to boost prices. In fact, the occasional deflation scare is necessary to keep the cycle going. The cycle only ends when most voters see “inflation” as the biggest threat to their personal economic prospects.”
Thursday, September 09, 2021
Investing in a Bubble Mania Stock Market Trending Towards Financial Crisis 2.0 CRASH! / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2021
By: Nadeem_Walayat
Dear Reader
This is third and final part of my recent extensive analysis (Part 1) (Part 2) in advance of Financial Crisis 2.0 as a handful of stocks are driving the indices higher, Apple worth $2.3 trillion, Microsoft $2 trillion, Amazon $1.8 trillion, Google 1.8 trillion, Facebook $1 trillion even that over priced pile of poop Tesla came close to being valued at $1 trillion, we are definitely in a bubble, you only need to go onto youtube and watch the to the moon videos of Cathy Wood, literally everything's going to go to the moon because her barely out of puberty Quants decree it to be so. This is clearly a major warning sign of a unsustainable trend when indices are ruled by such a small clique of tech stocks where the greatest similarity is with the dot come bubble in terms of the valuation of stocks that actually produce revenues unlike the largely worthless dot com's of that time.
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Thursday, September 09, 2021
Stock Market September Smackdown Coming Next? / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2021
By: Monica_Kingsley
S&P 500 declined, with tech holding up best – the volatility spike is here as real economy deceleration is joined by Evergrande fears. Both paper and real assets took it on the chin, and yields together with the dollar rose. As for greenback and Treasuries upcoming price path:
(…) Treasury yields moved up, but don‘t expect to see them gallop just yet. Slow and steady, orderly grind higher is the most likely trajectory ahead, and even that won‘t propel the dollar higher, or keep it really afloat. Greenback‘s support is at 91.70, and I‘m looking for it to give in over the nearest weeks, which carries tremendous implications for commodity and precious metals trades. And for risk assets in general.
Precious metals, copper and oil bore the brunt of souring sentiment, with cryptocurrencies joining in the slide later through the day. But have the material facts changed, or all we got was a whiff of risk-off? September is likely to be volatile, it seasonally is, and August had been a surprisingly calm month. You know what they say about periods of lower volatility giving way to those of higher readings… Time to buckle up.
Tuesday, September 07, 2021
US Dollar Upswing, S&P 500 and Nasdaq Outlook / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2021
By: Monica_Kingsley
S&P 500 didn‘t get hammered on the NFPs miss – stocks did reasonably well, saved by the daily rush into tech. Volatility didn‘t spike throughout the week at all, and credit markets maintain their risk-on posture. Still, the real economy deceleration made itself heard, pushing back Fed taper speculations even further from September. Jerome Powell wanted to see more jobs data, and would want even more so now. I wouldn‘t be really surprised if no taper was announced in November.
Markets are thus far unconcerned about a policy mistake in letting inflation get entrenched even more – Treasury yields moved up, but don‘t expect to see them gallop just yet. Slow and steady, orderly grind higher is the most likely trajectory ahead, and even that won‘t propel the dollar higher, or keep it really afloat. Greenback‘s support is at 91.70, and I‘m looking for it to give in over the nearest weeks, which carries tremendous implications for commodity and precious metals trades. And for risk assets in general.
Precious metals thus far remain tame, and should continue chugging along just fine. Commodities such as copper and oil won‘t be derailed, but might panic temporarily in case of really bad incoming data. Copper‘s continued underperformance of the commodity index highlights the growth woes of the day, and even if the red metal might look to some as ready to roll over, the positive stockpile situation should cushion potential downside. In short, I‘m not looking for a meaningful disturbance to the commodities bull, as the inventory replenishment cycle has far from run its course, and inflation is bound to get hotter this year still.
Monday, September 06, 2021
A Mixed Stock Market - Still / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2021
By: Andre_Gratian
Current Position of the Market
SPX Long-term trend: There is some evidence that we are still in the bull market which started in 2009 and which could continue into 2021 until major cycles take over, and it ends. A move up to ~4500 is possible before the current bull market makes a final top and SPX corrects into its next major cycle low due in 2023.
SPX Intermediate trend: SPX correction underway.
Analysis of the short-term trend is done daily with the help of hourly charts. They are important adjuncts to the analysis of daily and weekly charts which determine longer market trends.
Monday, September 06, 2021
What‘s Not to Love About Crypto Market Fireworks / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2021
By: Monica_Kingsley
Another weak selling attempt in stocks – are these setting up for tomorrow‘s NFPs volatility? It sure appears so, but buy the dip mentality looks likely to emerge victorious. The current period of low VIX will probably give way to a brief spike, which within bull markets is usually resolved with another upswing.
No matter the momentary hesitation in the credit markets, where we‘re moving two steps forward, one step backwards. Or rather two steps backwards, as can be seen this week. Risk off is still with us as key commodities aren‘t surging, leaving yesterday‘s silver upswing a little suspect on a daily basis. Copper and oil are struggling somewhat at the moment as well, taking (a bit too much) time as the dollar is only modestly declining and yields aren‘t rising.
The current trading environment favors still risk off, sectoral rotations are tame, and inflation expectations continue basing before money printing becomes an ever bigger problem for 2022 and the years ahead. Ethereum keeps doing wonders, and Bitcoin is joining in – finally, as expected. Hope you‘re riding open profitable positions too!
Sunday, September 05, 2021
S&P 500 Rallies To New All-Time Highs – Are The Markets About To Break Higher? / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2021
By: Chris_Vermeulen
The S&P 500 rallied to new highs early in September after the US Federal Reserve statements indicating continued support of the US economy and easy money policies. It appears the markets have fallen back into bullish trending mode which may continue throughout September and into the end of 2021 through the Christmas Rally phase.
Q3:2021 Earnings & The 2021 Christmas Rally Are Pending
Although we can see a new, more moderate, price trend taking place on this S&P 500 (ES) Weekly Chart, below, we are starting to see a new rally phase setting up as traders push prices higher to close out Q3:2021 in expectation of continued strong earnings.
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Friday, September 03, 2021
Stock Market Rallying on FOMO Fumes / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2021
By: Nadeem_Walayat
The stock market is continuing to rally on FOMO fumes with the Dow up 1.5% for August as the market enters the seasonally worst month of the year for stocks, followed by October, and we all know what October's tend to herald, especially for markets that have run well beyond every expectation and value metric that one can think of which is true for a wide spectrum of stocks from our AI tech giants right through to the junk that populates the likes of Cathy Woods ARK Funds, metrics as I covered in recent analysis such as the Reverse REPO market RED FLAG, then we have margin debt soaring to well beyond all previous market highs which actually would be expected in nominal terms given inflation, however Margin debt has also soared to new highs as a percentage of GDP 3.9% vs 3% in 2000. Here's another flashing RED LIGHT that of the market cap of negative earning stocks exceeding that of the dot com bubble, so folks enjoy your FOMO whilst it lasts, I personally have battened down the hatches for the hurricane that's coming our way that will likely blow novice investors out of the water, especially those who are investing on margin!
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Thursday, September 02, 2021
Fed Statements Drive New Rally Momentum In The Stock Markets / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2021
By: Chris_Vermeulen
Last week, the US Federal Reserve reiterated statements in support of continued easy money policies and support for a recovering US economy. Additionally, Jerome Powell made a statement suggesting tightening too early could be much more damaging than waiting until sufficient headwinds are behind us. I interpret this as stating the current inflationary concerns are less important than the current global market expectations. We can likely weather moderate inflationary concerns if the economy continues to strengthen – whereas tightening right now may not reduce inflationary concerns and may prompt a broad market slowdown within the US and globally.
Be sure to sign up for our free market trend analysis and signals now so you don’t miss our next special report!
In short, traders and investors perceived these comments as “Here we go – off to the races again” and the US markets rallied sharply on Friday and in early trading on Monday, August 30, 2021.
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Monday, August 30, 2021
Stock Market Taper Shock That Never Was / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2021
By: Monica_Kingsley
Yes, more paring the risk-on bets came yesterday, indiscriminately taking down stocks (tech and value alike), oil and copper. The overall shape of the consolidation in real assets (commodities and precious metals) remains bullish though – it‘s mainly in the S&P 500 that the hanging man candle is giving me a pause – temporarily lower stock prices would be favored by the VIX too.
Regardless of that:
(…) Margin debt is contracting, M2 not exactly at the prior rates of growth, but celebrations in the paper and real asset markets largely go on. Gold and silver are understandably lagging in the drummed up taper expectations, but I‘m not looking for any kind of dramatic statement from the Fed. The two steps forward, one step backwards melodrama is likely to continue into the September FOMC, and even that may very well leave the markets guessing. The Fed is in no position to tighten, the economic recovery is likely to continue, and the central bank won‘t kill it – which means continuous noises, and data dependecy as they like to call it.
What we have seen thus far, and are likely to see next, are stealth real attempts to test the markets‘ tolerance to the continuing monetary largesse to the extent permitted by actual fiscal realities (nice qualifier to say „don‘t expect too much“), verbal interventions projecting the (sooner than anticipated, and most importantly, actually viable in the marketplace) taper (and later tightening) images while seeing the dollar hovering in a position of relative strength (useful tool to take on cost inflation). Make no mistake, Powell is keen to cement his legacy, and that doesn‘t involve succumbing to the hawkish (ehm, considered as hawkish in our loose monetary era) calls during a slowdown in the real economy growth.
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Monday, August 30, 2021
Stock Market Drawing Ever Closer to Final Target? / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2021
By: Andre_Gratian
Current Position of the Market
SPX Long-term trend: There is some evidence that we are still in the bull market which started in 2009 and which could continue into 2021 until major cycles take over, and it ends. A move up to ~4500 is possible before the current bull market makes a final top and SPX corrects into its next major cycle low due in 2023.
SPX Intermediate trend: SPX correction underway.
Analysis of the short-term trend is done daily with the help of hourly charts. They are important adjuncts to the analysis of daily and weekly charts which determine longer market trends.
Sunday, August 29, 2021
Stock market risk not yet realized / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2021
By: Gary_Tanashian
Stock market is at high risk, but…
The ‘but’ is the old saying “markets can remain [seemingly] irrational longer than you can remain solvent” if you fight a trend that is intact at any given point. Since March, 2020 that trend has been up.
Structurally Over-bullish
Below is a chart showing the 10 week exponential moving average of the Equity Put/Call ratio (CPCE) that we review periodically in NFTRH for a view of the structural over-bullish situation in stocks. I write structural because it has extended much longer than extremes in the CPCE have done at previous ‘bull killer’ danger points, after which risk was realized in the form of moderate to severe corrections.
The trend began logically enough at a ‘bear killer’ reading in the midst of max pandemic fear. We noted at the time that market participants were not just bearish, not just risk averse, but absolutely terrified. So the recipe is this: take 1 lump of terrified investors, add a heaping helping of the Fed’s money printing and voila, enjoy the taste of a slingshot rally that is very filling despite its inflationary odor.
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Sunday, August 29, 2021
Play the Odds: Avoid Gambling in Rigged Markets / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2021
By: MoneyMetals
Is America becoming a nation of gamblers?
The lure of potential cash windfalls is driving rampant speculation in financial markets and record traffic to casinos.
The commercial gaming industry generated a record $13.6 billion in revenues during the second quarter, according to the Las Vegas Review-Journal. Casinos in Las Vegas, Massachusetts, Louisiana, and elsewhere now expect 2021 to be their best year ever.
On the flip side, since all games on a casino floor are rigged in favor of the house, it’s a good bet that gamblers are losing record amounts of money.
Saturday, August 28, 2021
Stock Market IWM Sets Up Dual Pennant/Flag Formation – Suggesting Very Volatile Apex Even / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2021
By: Chris_Vermeulen
Recently, we’ve seen an extended sideways price trend in the Russell 2000 sector that started in February/March of 2021. The peak price level on the IWM, the Ishares Russell 2000 ETF, reached $234.29 and has consolidated in a sideways price range for more than five months now. In mid-July, IWM broke lower and established a fresh new price low of $209.05 – setting up a second Pennant/Flagging price formation (in YELLOW). We believe this extended sideways Pennant/Flagging price channel is setting up a major volatility event (breakout or breakdown) as the price continues to near the Apex.
Dual Pennant/Flag Setups Suggest Big Volatility On The Horizon For Traders
We’ve drawn the longer-term Pennant/Flagging channel in CYAN and the more recent Pennant/Flagging channel in YELLOW. What we find interesting is that price is certainly attempting to break free of this channel recently but has continued to be constrained by a lack of directional momentum.
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Thursday, August 26, 2021
Investing During Stock Market Uncertainty / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2021
By: Nadeem_Walayat
This is a continuation of my recent extensive analysis in advance of Financial Crisis 2.0 as a handful of stocks are driving the indices higher, Apple worth $2.3 trillion, Microsoft $2 trillion, Amazon $1.8 trillion, Google 1.8 trillion, Facebook $1 trillion even that over priced pile of poop Tesla came close to being valued at $1 trillion, we are definitely in a bubble, you only need to go onto youtube and watch the to the moon videos of Cathy Wood, literally everything's going to go to the moon because her barely out of puberty Quants decree it to be so. This is clearly a major warning sign of a unsustainable trend when indices are ruled by such a small clique of tech stocks where the greatest similarity is with the dot come bubble in terms of the valuation of stocks that actually produce revenues unlike the largely worthless dot com's of that time.
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Thursday, August 26, 2021
Stock Market Rally On – Price Range Continues To Narrow As Reflation Trade Flags Out / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2021
By: Chris_Vermeulen
After a week of moderate volatility, while Consumer Sentiment and other economic data surprised traders/investors, the US markets entered a strong rally phase early in trading on Monday, August 23, 2021. This suggests traders continue to buy the dips in expectation of a never-ending rally trend.
Bucking Consumer Sentiment Trends
While the US markets continue to trend higher, some of our custom indicators and modeling systems have recently warned of market weakness setting up in cross-market sectors. Additionally, last week, the foreign markets took a bit of a beating while general commodities moved decidedly lower. Overall, it is tough to argue with this upward price trend – even while other indicators suggest intermediate market strength may be weakening.
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Tuesday, August 24, 2021
Surprising Consumer Activity Suggests A Deeper Shift In The Finanical Markets / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2021
By: Chris_Vermeulen
This final portion of our research article into the shifting US/global consumer spending/economic activities will help to set up forward expectations related to how assets and the stock market may react over the next 12+ months. In our opinion, the reflation trade/rally is complete, and consumers have already run the course with regards to stimulus spending, hyper-speculation of assets (cryptos, commodities, equities/stocks, and others). What happens next is we shift into the real-world future where post-reflation valuations, consumer activities, and corporate earnings will drive expectations.
There was a time, shortly after the November 2020 elections, that was very opportunistic for traders/speculators. The US Fed was prompting very easy monetary policy while multiple stimulus programs were still taking place. Additionally, the US economy was still early into the post-COVID reflation attempts. This created a real opportunity for traders and speculators to ride a hyper-speculative rally phase in late 2020 and into early 2021 as the Month-over-Month and Year-over-Year economic output data ramped up from the extreme COVID lows.
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Monday, August 23, 2021
Stock Market U-Turn and Quite for Real / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2021
By: Monica_Kingsley
What doesn‘t go down, must go up? With a little Kaplan help, sideways S&P 500 trading well above 4,370 – 4,375 area spurted higher as the taper prospects rebalancing worked its magic. As I had been writing thoughout the week and well before, mathematics of growing deficits doesn‘t favor decreasing asset purchases. On top, the economy appears a little slowing down – while no recession this year or next is likely – we‘re midpoint in the expansion cycle as per my credit spread indicators – the slowdown looks inevitable, and the only question is the extent and seriousness of any Fed tapering.
The talking has thus far lifted the dollar, enabling the central bank to take on inflation through the back door. Combined with the decreasing margin debt (first sign that something with the M2 rate of growth is amiss), the reflation and commodity trades have suffered, and all it took was a mere 2.5% from S&P 500 ATHs to make the Fed blink as per the title of my prescient Friday article.
Treasuries though aren‘t yet convinced, having merely wavered – they‘re overestimating the odds of economic growth turning negative. The same trading action describes the dollar, and inflation expectations dipped on the day as well. As a result, expect the turn to risk on beyond stocks, to continue in fits and starts – Friday was but a first swallow revealing that the Fed is ready to step in when things start to look bleak for the „generally accepted metric of economic success“, the stock market.
Monday, August 23, 2021
Stock Market Correction Underway – How much? / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2021
By: Andre_Gratian
Current Position of the Market
SPX Long-term trend: There is some evidence that we are still in the bull market which started in 2009 and which could continue into 2021 until major cycles take over, and it ends. A move up to ~4500 is possible before the current bull market makes a final top and SPX corrects into its next major cycle low due in 2023.
SPX Intermediate trend: SPX correction underway.
Analysis of the short-term trend is done daily with the help of hourly charts. They are important adjuncts to the analysis of daily and weekly charts which determine longer market trends.
Sunday, August 22, 2021
Repo, Debt and Bond Markets in Financial Crisis 2.0, Michael "Big Short" Burry CRASH is Coming's Track Record / Stock-Markets / Financial Crisis 2021
By: Nadeem_Walayat
This is part 2 of my recent extensive analysis (Part 1) in advance of Financial Crisis 2.0 as a handful of stocks are driving the indices higher, Apple worth $2.3 trillion, Microsoft $2 trillion, Amazon $1.8 trillion, Google 1.8 trillion, Facebook $1 trillion even that over priced pile of poop Tesla came close to being valued at $1 trillion, we are definitely in a bubble, you only need to go onto youtube and watch the to the moon videos of Cathy Wood, literally everything's going to go to the moon because her barely out of puberty Quants decree it to be so. This is clearly a major warning sign of a unsustainable trend when indices are ruled by such a small clique of tech stocks where the greatest similarity is with the dot come bubble in terms of the valuation of stocks that actually produce revenues unlike the largely worthless dot com's of that time.
Read full article... Read full article...
Sunday, August 22, 2021
Stocks: What to Make of Wall Street's Sky-High Optimism / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2021
By: EWI
"I believe that the market moves in whatever direction hurts the most participants"
The U.S. stock market has been in an uptrend since March 2009 -- so, more than 12 years.
To add icing to the cake, there's this notable factoid (CNBC, August 16):
S&P 500 doubles from its pandemic bottom, marking the fastest bull market rally since WWII
So, after such a historic run, one might think that many Wall Street analysts would say that it's time to take at least some chips off the table.
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Saturday, August 21, 2021
Markets Making the Fed Blink / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2021
By: Monica_Kingsley
Sea of red in stocks, reversed shortly after the open – is the worst behind? Remembering my Tuesday‘s words bringing up again downside risk (these have been growing for quite a few days before already), I don‘t think so – I consider yesterday‘s volatility as likely not to have yet peaked, and the VIX close above 21 could be overcome perhaps as early as Tuesday.
It‘s that the shift in sentiment to risk off is everywhere to be seen – surging dollar, declining yields, value doing way worse than tech, gold outperforming silver, gold holding up very well, copper and oil striving to bottom, inflation expectations approaching the lower end of its recent range, and quite a few more signs including from select currency pairs – pretty consistent with the takeaways from yesterday‘s extensive analysis. If you hadn‘t read this taper navigation game plan already, have a look, as the feedback was very positive:
(…) This is the time to be picky about where to be exposed to risks, which asset classes are likely to ride the taper and growth storms best. I think it would be copper over oil, and gold over silver. The stock market correction appears in its opening stages indeed, and cryptos still chopping around would be a great result. It‘ll take a while for the dollar to roll over to the downside, but look for it to do so over the medium to longer term, and keep an eye on Treasuries – would be great if they confirmed my midpoint economic cycle hypothesis and didn‘t spike. Finally, I expect the Fed to come to its senses as not enough of what‘s left of the free market, would step up to the plate and finance growing „building back better“ deficits. So far, so good.
Friday, August 20, 2021
S&P 500 Back Below 4,400. Dip to Buy or a New Downtrend? / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2021
By: Paul_Rejczak
Stocks sold off yesterday as the fear of Fed tapering grew. Monday’s run-up was definitely a bull trap, and our short position is profitable now.
The S&P 500 index lost 1.1% on Wednesday and the futures contract continued selling off overnight. The index will most likely break below its late July consolidation and the support level of 4,370 this morning. However, it may get near a short-term bottom, as it gets closer to the 4,350 level. It’s the nearest important support level, marked by the three-month-long upward trend line, as we can see on the daily chart (chart by courtesy of http://stockcharts.com):
Thursday, August 19, 2021
Fed Between a Rock and a Hard Place / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2021
By: Monica_Kingsley
No, it‘s not about stocks, however well they hang on to recent gains. ATHs hit again amid recovering corporate credit markets, with both tech and value contributing. Value though was looking more vulnerable going into yesterday‘s session, and just one look at financials or energy confirms that – in the world of question marks over high pace of economic growth, it‘s the Fed that‘s between a rock and hard place.
On one hand, they have stubborn and quickening inflation to deal with (or pretend to deal with through the FOMC, the federal open mouth committee) – getting ahead of the curve means serious tightening (okay, first getting less loose monetarily, which is what taper is about). Given China‘s slowdown and corresponding U.S. figures projected, it would be a tall order to turn off the spigot into a weakening (but still growing) economy – that has potential to trigger quite a correction in stocks and risk-on assets. Note copper and oil paring recent gains, and going largely sideways for weeks – not rolling over, but the light is amber, irrespective of the infrastructure bill.
On the other hand, if the central bank does nothing, inflation would grow even more entrenched, sinking the stock market and economy over time, anyway. Don‘t forget about the massive spending – the Fed turning restrictive isn‘t the math favored outcome here.
Thursday, August 19, 2021
Surprising Consumer Activity May Suggest A Deeper Shift In The Markets / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2021
By: Chris_Vermeulen
Recent economic data suggests that US consumers are starting to pull away from the types of buying/spending activities we saw after the COVID virus event that shifted the US economy away from travel/office and towards work-from-home solutions. The deep decline in the US and global economic indicators, as a result of the COVID-19 shutdown, prompted an incredible recovery rally phase in the markets that had everyone chasing the uptrend in stocks, housing prices, and other assets. Now that we are beyond 15+ months after the March 2020 COVID lows, a new dynamic may be setting up in the markets.
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Wednesday, August 18, 2021
The Long Shadow Over Reflation Market Trades / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2021
By: Monica_Kingsley
Consumer confidence undershoot didn‘t bring down stocks as the retreat in yields (away from the reflation trades) didn‘t spook value stocks, and only lifted tech. It‘s true that XLK isn‘t firing on all cylinders, and the semiconductors‘ lag is just as concerning as Russell 2000 underperformance – so much for explaining the risks in stocks.
But as I wrote on Friday:
(…) Inflationary pressures building up aren‘t spooking the markets, there is no forcing the Fed‘s hand through rising yields. The bond vigilantes seem a distant memory as yields are trading well below their historical band, stunningly low given the hot inflation data. I‘m not saying red hot because the monthly CPI figure came in line with expectations, providing relief to the transitory camp. But last week‘s ISM services PMI and yesterday‘s PPI paint a very different story (to come).
My call about summer lull in bonds before these slowly but surely make their way higher (the 10-year to 1.80%), is turning out just as well as the inflation expectations‘ continued rebound. The cheap magic of Fed‘s June jawboning is losing its luster. Stocks steady and making marginally higher ATHs practically daily, uneven credit markets, gold holding up well following Monday‘s hit job, oil and copper trading in narrow ranges while the crypto uptrend goes on – fresh profits harvested across the markets yesterday, and growing today.
Regarding the taper noises many Fed speakers made during the week (it isn‘t just about Dallas), some form of taper looks indeed coming, even though they would have a hard time pulling it off against decelerating economy and massive fresh spending. Mission impossible if you will. Still, they make the appearance of wanting to try – wouldn‘t tanking markets and fresh calls to do something be a perfect excuse to expanding balance sheet solidly again? But they must at least internally in the Eccles building understand that a move against inflation is long overdue, and perhaps a repetition of June FOMC wouldn‘t do the trick this time.
Wednesday, August 18, 2021
Stock Market Is About To Crash - Part XXIII (This Time We Mean It) / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2021
By: Avi_Gilburt
As the market began its historic rally off the March 2020 low, many were convinced that we had begun a bear market. In fact, I witnessed many people posting about short trades in which one cannot lose during that rally. The common perspective was that due to the highest Covid death rates being reported during the spring of 2020, economic shutdowns being seen all over the country, and record unemployment being reported, there was no way the market could continue to rally. It was simply impossible in most people’s minds.
Yet, continue to rally we did. Imagine if there was someone who warned you that we were going to 4000+ from the 2200SPX region, and who actually turned strongly bullish as we were hitting the lows. You would think that more and more people would be interested in what caused this person to maintain such a strong bullish bias in the face of utter despair.
It is uncanny. Avi and his team are working their ass off - and they make incredible calls. The constantly tell you to unlearn everything you learned before, and most people struggle with this. I still do. But the more I embrace their trading style the greener my account gets. I mean, when a guy tells you that we will see SPX 3200+ in a few weeks/months in the middle of a crisis like corona, it is very hard to let go of your shorts. I wish I did,.. Well, today, when Avi tells me what he thinks is most probably going to happen and how,... I listen. And it is a pleasure to watch my balance grow.
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Tuesday, August 17, 2021
August Stock Market Flash Crashes Historical Analysis / Stock-Markets / Stock Market Crash
By: Chris_Vermeulen
Weakening volume after an extended rally phase is fairly common. It represents a complacency in the markets where traders/investors are unwilling to chase an extended rally phase at higher prices. Often traders are waiting for some type of market correction or rotation to happen – which will allow them to deploy capital back into the markets at decreased price levels. Sometimes, this diminishing volume presents a unique scenario where traders shift their expectations away from traditional “buy the dip” thinking and that can sometimes create what is called a Flash Crash event.
Revisiting the August 2015 Flash Crash Event
In August 2015, a unique Flash Crash took place that prompted a -12.5% collapse in the S&P 500 in just four trading days – after a bout of selling pressure on a Wednesday/Thursday/Friday. The following Monday, the markets opened with a small lower opening gap, yet traders were unwilling to buy into the ASK and this created a very unique scenario where price exploration created a widening price void. As algos and computers continued to try to find active buyers in the marketplace, the ASK/BID spreads continued to widen as the liquidity trap had sprung.
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Tuesday, August 17, 2021
Fresh Stock Market Highs to Meet Fresh Volatility / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2021
By: Monica_Kingsley
Inflationary pressures building up aren‘t spooking the markets, there is no forcing the Fed‘s hand through rising yields. The bond vigilantes seem a distant memory as yields are trading well below their historical band, stunningly low given the hot inflation data. I‘m not saying red hot because the monthly CPI figure came in line with expectations, providing relief to the transitory camp. But last week‘s ISM services PMI and yesterday‘s PPI paint a very different story (to come).
My call about summer lull in bonds before these slowly but surely make their way higher (the 10-year to 1.80%), is turning out just as well as the inflation expectations‘ continued rebound. The cheap magic of Fed‘s June jawboning is losing its luster. Stocks steady and making marginally higher ATHs practically daily, uneven credit markets, gold holding up well following Monday‘s hit job, oil and copper trading in narrow ranges while the crypto uptrend goes on – fresh profits harvested across the markets yesterday, and new ones growing today.
The countdown to the Jackson Hole is on though, with the Fed practically having to do something – something in all likelihood face saving only as the record deficit spending gives it little to no maneuvering room.
Monday, August 16, 2021
Stock Market Strong Intermediate Reversal Warning / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2021
By: Andre_Gratian
Current Position of the Market
SPX Long-term trend: There is some evidence that we are still in the bull market which started in 2009 and which could continue into 2021 until major cycles take over, and it ends. A move up to ~4500 is possible before the current bull market makes a final top and SPX corrects into its next major cycle low due in 2023.
SPX Intermediate trend: SPX should now have reached its next intermediate top.
Analysis of the short-term trend is done daily with the help of hourly charts. They are important adjuncts to the analysis of daily and weekly charts which determine longer market trends.
Monday, August 16, 2021
How Options Are Fueling The Markets / Stock-Markets / Options & Warrants
By: Chris_Vermeulen
In the past week, we have seen the Nasdaq and the S&P reach all-time highs. Since the covid crash, we have seen some massive movement to the upside. I believe there are several factors driving these markets up.
First, let’s look at the covid crisis and how it played a role. As a result of the shutdowns, the FED took a really aggressive stance with its quantitative easing measures. Lots of money printing to pay for massive stimulus payouts. The worse news we hear historically is that the markets will react sharply to the downside.
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Sunday, August 15, 2021
Stock Market Margin Debt Bubble / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2021
By: Nadeem_Walayat
A handful of stocks are driving the indices higher, Apple worth $2.3 trillion, Microsoft $2 trillion, Amazon $1.8 trillion, Google 1.8 trillion, Facebook $1 trillion even that over priced pile of poop Tesla came close to being valued at $1 trillion, we are definitely in a bubble, you only need to go onto youtube and watch the to the moon videos of Cathy Wood, literally everything's going to go to the moon because her barely out of puberty Quants decree it to be so. This is clearly a major warning sign of a unsustainable trend when indices are ruled by such a small clique of tech stocks where the greatest similarity is with the dot come bubble in terms of the valuation of stocks that actually produce revenues unlike the largely worthless dot com's of that time.
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Sunday, August 15, 2021
Increasing Risks for Stock Market CRASH 2021 - AI Stocks Portfolio Buying and Selling Levels / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2021
By: Nadeem_Walayat
The US stock market has been content to rally to new highs with many stocks going to the Moon including most of our AI tech giants, a rally that I have been distributing into to the extent that I have now sold 80% of my holdings in the Top 6 AI stocks in my portfolio.
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Sunday, August 15, 2021
Financial System Liquidity Alarm / Stock-Markets / Financial Crisis 2021
By: Gary_Tanashian
Market liquidity is draining from different vantage points
On Wednesday I made a post that showed the “metallic credit spread” (as coined by Bob Hoye) known as the Gold/Silver ratio (GSR) flipped on its head (to Silver/Gold) to indicate a dangerous situation for the S&P 500, if past is prologue. Here is that post and here is the Tweet that followed…
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Thursday, August 12, 2021
Could a Collapse of Cryptocurrencies Force a Reform of the Global Monetary System? / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2021
By: Steve_H_Hanke
For thousands of years, there has been a dominant international currency. Until August 15, 1971, when President Nixon closed the gold window and revoked the right of foreign governments to redeem their dollar assets for gold, all the dominant currencies had either been gold or silver coins, or paper notes or accounts that were redeemable for gold or silver.
Historically, these dominant currencies would come and go, with their demise typically being the result of wars and war finance. The United States dollar supplanted the British pound, which had been the world’s dominant currency in the 19th century, at the onset of the First World War.
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Wednesday, August 11, 2021
Nasdaq Rallied To New All-Time Highs – Are We Starting Another Bullish Rally Phase? / Stock-Markets / Tech Stocks
By: Chris_Vermeulen
After the Fed’s comments in support of the US economy and the transitory nature of the recent inflation, the NASDAQ rallied to new all-time highs and closed at $15,167.75 on August 5, 2021. If the markets fall back into the “melt-higher” mode as we move away from Q2:2021 earnings, we may be setting up for a moderately big rally phase targeting $15,400 or higher in the NQ.
Global Traders Continue To Bank On A Rally In US Equities
Global traders have poured billions into the US markets over the past 4+ years as the US Federal Reserve has continued to act as the global banker of last resort. Because of this, global traders continue to invest in US equities as the strength of the US Dollar and the incredible post-Covid rally in the markets has blown past everyone’s expectations.
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Tuesday, August 10, 2021
Here’s What You Should Do About Inflation / Stock-Markets / Inflation
By: Submissions
By Justin Spittler - “What should I do about inflation?”My Uber driver recently asked me this after I told her what I do for a living.
And she’s not the only one asking me this question.
My mom… brother… friends who’ve never bought a stock in their lives… and many of you who read my essays every week want to know the same thing:
Why are pricing soaring? Should I do anything to prepare?
And most importantly…
What should I do with my current investments?
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Tuesday, August 10, 2021
Stock Market Dichotomy / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2021
By: Andre_Gratian
Current Position of the Market
SPX Long-term trend: There is some evidence that we are still in the bull market which started in 2009 and which could continue into 2021 until major cycles take over, and it ends. A move up to ~4500 is possible before the current bull market makes a final top and SPX corrects into its next major cycle low due in 2023.
SPX Intermediate trend: SPX should now have reached its next intermediate top.
Analysis of the short-term trend is done daily with the help of hourly charts. They are important adjuncts to the analysis of daily and weekly charts which determine longer market trends.
Sunday, August 08, 2021
Are Stock Markets Ready For An August Surprise? / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2021
By: Chris_Vermeulen
One thing that seems to be certain in the markets right now is the past hyper-bullish trending which appears to have weakened since early 2021. As a result, the longer-term Custom Indexes we use to help gauge and understand market trends are showing a very clear weakening of trends.
In this article, we are going to review three of our custom index charts on a weekly chart basis, the Custom US Stock Market Index, the Smart Cash Global Market Index, and the Custom Volatility Index. Each of these charts highlights something unique related to current market trends.
Use this information to read between the line and to help establish your own expectations for the markets going forward. We’ll provide our conclusion near the end of this research article.
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Thursday, August 05, 2021
We Will See SPX 4600 In 2021 / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2021
By: Avi_Gilburt
As we came into 2021, I outlined to those willing to listen that I expected at least a 20% continuation rally in the SPX, and I would prefer for us to strike at least the 4600SPX region this year. And, at the time, the SPX was in the 3750SPX region.
Thus far, the market has provided us with an 18% rally in 2021, and I still expect us to rally to 4600SPX this year. The question that we are answering over the coming weeks is simply a matter of the path to 4600SPX.
Now, as usual, I take the time to read other articles on Seeking Alpha to glean some of the thinking within the market. And, amongst the articles calling the market a “bubble” or “wrong,” as well as several others attempting to call the top yet again, there are a few issues I would like to address.
First, I have been reading many analysts viewing this rally as the Covid “recovery” rally. And, it really makes me scratch my head.
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Thursday, August 05, 2021
Revisiting The Excess Phase Stock Market Peak Pattern / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2021
By: Chris_Vermeulen
The setup of the Excess Phase peak pattern consists of an exuberant rally to a peak (Phase #1), followed by a moderate price correction that sets up into a sideways flagging pattern (Phase #2). If the INDU and TRAN continue to move in a sideways flagging formation after recently moving moderately lower, we may start to see a new Excess Phase Peak setup in these two major indexes. This could be a warning of a much bigger breakdown in trends in the near future.
Please take a minute to review our earlier research posts related to the Excess Phase Peak setup (below) and how it related to the current market trend:
- November 25, 2020: HOW TO SPOT THE END OF AN EXCESS PHASE – PART I
- November 27, 2020: HOW TO SPOT THE END OF AN EXCESS PHASE – PART II
- May 20, 2021: BITCOIN COMPLETES PHASE #3 OF EXCESS PHASE TOP PATTERN – WHAT NEXT?
Thursday, August 05, 2021
Dramatic Divergence between US and European Stock Markets / Stock-Markets / Global Stock Markets
By: EWI
This chart shows a "dramatic divergence" between U.S. and European stocks
Cryptocurrencies and so-called meme stocks have certainly received a lot of attention from investors.
Another investment category that has been in favor recently is European equities. No, they may not be quite as "hot" as, say, bitcoin -- but they've been receiving more attention than usual.
Let's start with some recent headlines:
- U.S. investors are pouring money into European stock funds (Marketwatch, May 27)
- European Stocks Are Coming In From the Cold (Bloomberg, June 17)
- It's a Good Time to Invest in Europe (Kiplinger, June 24)
Monday, August 02, 2021
Stock Market Intermediate Top Reached / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2021
By: Andre_Gratian
Current Position of the Market
SPX Long-term trend: There is some evidence that we are still in the bull market which started in 2009 and which could continue into 2021 until major cycles take over, and it ends. A move up to ~4500 is possible before the current bull market makes a final top and SPX corrects into its next major cycle low due in 2023.
SPX Intermediate trend: SPX has now reached its next intermediate top.
Analysis of the short-term trend is done daily with the help of hourly charts. They are important adjuncts to the analysis of daily and weekly charts which determine longer market trends.
Friday, July 30, 2021
The Inadvertent Debt/Inflation Trap – Is It Time for the Stock Market To Face The Music? / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2021
By: Chris_Vermeulen
What happens to a global economy after 10+ years of global central bank efforts to support a recovery attempt after a massive credit/debt collapse originates from a prior credit/debt housing bubble? What happens to global economies when they become addicted to easy money policies and central bank activities that support greater and greater risk-taking? What is the end result of these actions after more than 10+ years of excess and central bank support for the markets?
Let’s play this out a bit to think about how the current market environment may be similar to what happened in the mid/late 1990s and see if we can come to any real conclusions. Remember, we are using our research and technical analysis skills to play a “what if” scenario in this research article. Our current trading systems have not warned us of any major Bearish price trends of price collapses that may take place. Our systems are still trading the US markets based on current market trends. This research is completely speculative in the sense that we are trying to identify “what if” scenarios based on events in the recent past.
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Friday, July 30, 2021
Fed Stocks Nothingburger, Dollar Lower, Focus on GDP, PCE / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2021
By: Submissions
It was a rather pedestrian FOMC Statement day on Wednesday. There is GDP data incoming, and the widely Fed-followed Core PCE Price Index data comes out on Friday. What can we take away from the FOMC Statement and press conference?
Rates unchanged. No rush to raise interest rates. Inflation should persist.
No surprises here.
However, there was some notable price action in the US Dollar Index during Wednesday’s session. The US Dollar Index initially rose on the FOMC statement at 2:00 PM. During the press conference, the USD fell as Fed Chair Jerome Powell mentioned that inflation should persist for several months. It is noteworthy price action and can be a forward-looking indicator for the direction of other asset prices.
Thursday, July 29, 2021
Reverse REPO Market Brewing Financial Crisis Black Swan Danger / Stock-Markets / Financial Crisis 2021
By: Nadeem_Walayat
Financial Crisis 2.0 - You Don't Know How Big of a Bubble Your in until AFTER it BURSTS
A handful of stocks are driving the indices higher, Apple worth $2.3 trillion, Microsoft $2 trillion, Amazon $1.8 trillion, Google 1.8 trillion, Facebook $1 trillion even that over priced pile of poop Tesla came close to being valued at $1 trillion, we are definitely in a bubble, you only need to go onto youtube and watch the to the moon videos of Cathy Wood, literally everything's going to go to the moon because her barely out of puberty Quants decree it to be so. This is clearly a major warning sign of a unsustainable trend when indices are ruled by such a small clique of tech stocks where the greatest similarity is with the dot come bubble in terms of the valuation of stocks that actually produce revenues unlike the largely worthless dot com's of that time.
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Thursday, July 29, 2021
Next Time You See "4 Times as Many Stock Market Bulls as There Are Bears," Remember This / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2021
By: EWI
See how stock investors' "historic optimism" served as a warning
After a 12-year uptrend, just when caution might be in order, investor psychology has remained highly and stubbornly optimistic.
As the July Elliott Wave Financial Forecast, a monthly publication which provides Elliott wave analysis of major U.S. financial markets, said:
Large traders are more exuberant than ever. On June 11, large trader buy-to-open call purchases jumped to 45%, a new record.
A highly bullish outlook was also expressed in this July 10 Marketwatch headline:
The bull market in stocks may last up to five years -- here are six reasons why
Notice that the headline's suggestion is that the bull market has just started.
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Thursday, July 29, 2021
Showdown: Paper vs. Physical Markets / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2021
By: MoneyMetals
The first half of 2021 did not play out as hoped by precious metals investors. Despite the effort to “squeeze” the bullion banks, silver has yet to push through the $30 barrier, and gold remains below the high put in nearly a year ago.
The effort has been valiant. Demand for physical bullion is unprecedented.
However, the paper markets, where price discovery is purportedly done, remain untethered to physical supply and demand.
It will take more than physical demand to break the back of the banking regime which dominates the paper markets.
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Wednesday, July 28, 2021
Fed: Murderer of Markets and the Middle Class / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2021
By: Michael_Pento
The Fed’s manipulation of the money supply and its cost has served to obliterate the function of asset price discovery, just as it has also caused the middle and lower classes to reduce their standard of living. Since a greater percentage of their falling real incomes goes to the purchase of food and energy--the things most effected by money printing--the wealth gap, which the fed avows to care about, has become greatly exacerbated.After foolishly and desperately pursuing inflation many years, the dog finally caught the truck. But predictably, the freedom killers at the FOMC are coming to realize inflation is easily tractable on both ends of the spectrum. Its asinine 2% inflation goal was meant to be a ceiling when first proposed; but was underachieved for many years. However, that level has now been transcended by leaps and bounds. The evil inflation genie was released out of the bottle and putting it back in will entail destroying the stock market and economy as a direct consequence. In other words, it took trillions upon trillions of helicopter dollars to get inflation and asset prices where they are today. And unless the Treasury and Fed assent to doing that same thing on a more consistent basis, asset prices and the economy should succumb to a deflationary meltdown next year. A Pyrrhic victory over inflation is the best we can hope for.
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Wednesday, July 28, 2021
I Guess The Stock Market Does Not Fear Covid - So Should You? / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2021
By: Avi_Gilburt
Looking back to the early part of the week, we all saw something that should not shock anyone who is actually thinking in an intellectually honest manner about the market.You see, the market saw a nice drop on Monday. And, the news media was at the forefront "explaining" how the market fears regarding the Delta variant of Covid is what caused the decline, and would likely take it much lower. It made me wonder if they polled all the market participants to come up with that reason for the decline, or if they simply made it up as they go?
Well, I think it is quite clear that they simply made it up as they go, which is what they always do. And, investors were quite eager to foolishly adopt their reasoning as usual. Did you?
At some point, investors have to begin thinking for themselves and ignore what they are fed about the market (pun intended). Most of the reasons we believe the markets move are based upon pure fallacy. Those that propagate those fallacies are never burdened by the actual facts. Rather, whatever the news of the day seems to fit the narrative of the market direction is utilized as a reason for a market move, even if it is wholly untrue.
Tuesday, July 27, 2021
SPX Going for the Major Stock Market Top? / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2021
By: Andre_Gratian
SPX Long-term trend: There is some evidence that we are still in the bull market which started in 2009 and which could continue into 2021 until major cycles take over, and it ends. A move up to ~4500 is possible before the current bull market makes a final top and SPX corrects into its next major cycle low due in 2023.SPX Intermediate trend: SPX May wat to push all the way to the top projection before making an important correction.
Analysis of the short-term trend is done daily with the help of hourly charts. They are important adjuncts to the analysis of daily and weekly charts which determine longer market trends.
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Sunday, July 25, 2021
Global Stock Market Investing: Here's the Message of Consumer "Overconfidence" / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2021
By: EWI
Bear markets tend to follow this particular sentiment
In many global regions, economies are flourishing.
For example, here are two headlines about the U.S.:
What America's Startup Boom Could Mean For The Economy (npr.com, June 29)
Inflation Rose in June as Economic Recovery Continues (WSJ, July 13)
The goings-on in the United Kingdom provide another example. Employers in the UK are hiring people at the highest rate in more than six years. Plus, business and consumer spending are climbing swiftly -- at the fastest clip in a quarter of a century.
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Saturday, July 24, 2021
Stock Market Stalling Signs? Taking a Look Under the Hood of US Equities / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2021
By: Submissions
Equities traded quietly higher in Thursday's NY session. Simultaneously, bonds were bid rather firmly, sending interest rates even lower. What is going on beneath the surface?
Greetings. I hope this article finds you and yours well. Today, we are taking a look at some additional market indicators and internals to get an unbiased perspective on things.
First, I want to preface things by mentioning that I am not suggesting that I am fully bearish on the S&P 500 or stocks right now. However, I am taking more of a cautious stance at the moment.
Saturday, July 24, 2021
How does CFD trading work / Stock-Markets / Stock Index Trading
By: Submissions
...
Wednesday, July 21, 2021
Emotional Stock Traders React To Recent Market Rotation – Are You Ready For What’s Next? / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2021
By: Chris_Vermeulen
Most traders don’t really have a solid strategy in place to protect assets and assist them in knowing when to pull risk capital away from market trends. If you are trading on MEME stock content, variable technical strategies or flying by the seat of your pants when making trading decisions, you are probably very concerned and emotional about the recent downside price rotation in the major markets right now.
What is happening is that the markets are attempting to potentially start a reversion event – a price rotation. This rotation in price may turn into a bigger price correction or downtrend at some point in the near future. But right now, we are only seeing moderate price rotation in the US and global markets. Should you be concerned about this spike in volatility and the timing of this correction? This a good and valid question. Let my team and I try to help you regarding what may happen in the near future.
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Wednesday, July 21, 2021
Post-Covid Stimulus Payouts & The US Fed Push Global Investors Deeper Into US Value Bubble / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2021
By: Chris_Vermeulen
In this second part of our research into how capital is being deployed across the globe and why traders/investors continue to pour capital into the US equities markets, we’ll explore how the US major indexes have reacted to the continued investments by the US and foreign investors compared to foreign market trends.
Using methods like this to determine where capital is being allocated and why traders/investors decide to move capital into and out of various global indexes, suggests one of the most important aspects of swing trading is to stay keenly aware of how capital is moving and deploying across the globe.
In October of 2019, we attempted to highlight how capital is shifting and how trends are setting up in currencies, global major indexes, and other global sectors.
October 17, 2019: CURRENCIES SHOW A SHIFT TO SAFETY AND MATURITY – WHAT DOES IT MEAN?
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Tuesday, July 20, 2021
FREE PASS to Analysis and Trend forecasts of 50+ Global Markets by Elliott Wave International / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2021
By: EWI
Hi,
2021 is hallway over. In Q3 and Q4, what in the world should you be watching?
That's not an easy question to answer. There is a lot to look at. In just the past 2-3 months:
- Bitcoin got cut in half
- Crude oil rallied from $62 to $76 - that's 20%
- Gold dropped ~8%, then rebounded
- USD had its sharpest rally in over a year
- Nikkei 225 dropped 1700 points and then rallied 1200
- Nasdaq rose1600 points - over 12%
Markets are MOVING -- and surely, you're wondering what Elliott waves show for Q3/Q4.
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Sunday, July 18, 2021
What Does The Fed Mean By “Transitory Inflation” And Why Is It Important To Understand? / Stock-Markets / Inflation
By: Chris_Vermeulen
As the markets react to the somewhat shocking CPI and Inflation data while Q2:2021 earnings continue to roll across the news wires, we wanted to take a minute to explore the recent Fed comments related to “Transitory Inflation” and what that really means.
For those of you not familiar with the word ‘transitory’ (in conjunction with inflation) according to the Merriam-Webster Dictionary, Transitory means:
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Sunday, July 18, 2021
Will the US stock market’s worsening breadth matter? / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2021
By: Gary_Tanashian
US stock market breadth is fading
The US stock market has bad breadth as participation thins out markedly. Below are a few examples.
Equal weight SPX is fading headline SPX per this chart which we feature occasionally in NFTRH but update the status of most weeks.
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Monday, July 12, 2021
Peak of the Fake Stocks Bull Market / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2021
By: Michael_Pento
We are probably very close to the peak of this ersatz bull market and economy. Peak vaccination distribution, along with the peak optimism about the vanquished pandemic and the re-opening of the economy. U.S. corporations are experiencing peak profit margins. The economy has enjoyed peak fiscal and monetary stimulus and those tailwinds will soon become strong headwinds. Also, peak tax relief is now in the rear-view mirror; and higher taxes are around the corner. Finally, peak asset valuations have arrived and the associated wealth effect is now waning.Confirming this view is a series of slowing economic data--a reduction in the rate of change in growth and inflation. For now, this is not a crisis or a recession; but is set to become one next year. Here are some facts and data:
Personal income decreased $414.3 billion (2.0 percent) in May, according to the Bureau of Economic Analysis. Personal consumption expenditures were virtually unchanged. Despite that fact that job openings are at all-time high, at the same time, initial jobless claims are running at a level that is 75% above/higher than the pre-pandemic level. This begs the question: why is the US laying off people at a rate that is three quarters greater than before COVID-19, despite that fact that the economy has reopened? After all, the pandemic crisis is now a year and a half old; shouldn’t layoffs be almost non-existent?
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Monday, July 12, 2021
Stock Market Probing for a Top / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2021
By: Andre_Gratian
Current Position of the Market
SPX Long-term trend: There is some evidence that we are still in the bull market which started in 2009 and which could continue into 2021 before major cycles take over, and it ends. A move up to ~4500 is possible before the current bull market makes a final top and SPX corrects into its next major cycle low due in 2023.
SPX Intermediate trend: SPX has likely reached the end of an intermediate phase.
Analysis of the short-term trend is done daily with the help of hourly charts. They are important adjuncts to the analysis of daily and weekly charts which determine longer market trends.
Saturday, July 10, 2021
Escaping The United States May Be Leading To An Extreme Market Bubble Setup / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2021
By: Chris_Vermeulen
The past few years have seen housing prices skyrocket as Flippers, Speculators and Traditional Buyers jump into home buying or selling to relocate to different areas throughout the US. One interesting facet of this phenomenon recently hit NBC news over the past few days related to the super hot Boise Idaho and Coeur D’Alene Idaho market. Home prices in the Boise area have skyrocketed higher by over 30% in just 12 months. In Coeur D’Alene, home prices have risen over 85% in the past 12 months.
Is a Supply/Demand Measure Distorted By Recent Buying Activity – And What’s Next?
My concern is that the post-COVID buying/relocating trends have pushed the Supply/Demand pricing factors well past the equilibrium. Simply put, the moratoriums and policies related to home renters and homeowners throughout the COVID-19 crisis have created a supply crisis at a time when many people had the capabilities to sell and relocate into different areas of the US at the same time. Diminishing supply with hyper-active demand pushes price levels upward and to the left, as illustrated on the Supply/Demand chart below.
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Friday, July 09, 2021
Stock Market Summer Correction / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2021
By: Nadeem_Walayat
I'll take a more in-depth look at the stock market trend in a forthcoming analysis. However as things stand the stock market is starting to move out of my original forecast window for a summer correction (9th Feb 2021 Dow Stock Market Trend Forecast 2021).
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Thursday, July 08, 2021
Financial Crisis 2.0 - You Don't Know How Big of a Bubble Your in until AFTER it BURSTS / Stock-Markets / Financial Crisis 2021
By: Nadeem_Walayat
A handful of stocks are driving the indices higher, Apple worth $2.3 trillion, Microsoft $2 trillion, Amazon $1.8 trillion, Google 1.8 trillion, Facebook $1 trillion even that over priced pile of poop Tesla came close to being valued at $1 trillion, we are definitely in a bubble, you only need to go onto youtube and watch the to the moon videos of Cathy Wood, literally everything's going to go to the moon because her barely out of puberty Quants decree it to be so. This is clearly a major warning sign of a unsustainable trend when indices are ruled by such a small clique of tech stocks where the greatest similarity is with the dot come bubble in terms of the valuation of stocks that actually produce revenues unlike the largely worthless dot com's of that time.
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Wednesday, July 07, 2021
The Matrix of Market Psychology / Stock-Markets / Trader Psychology
By: Gary_Tanashian
In the midst of work uncovering a target for the US dollar that will surprise many if it comes about, of taking a hard look at the messages of long-term Treasury yields and the yield curve, defining potential macro outcomes (inflation, Goldilocks or deflation) based on these indications and planning strategy accordingly, NFTRH 662 got a little out there with a discussion of the mindset that is behind the name of the Notes From the Rabbit Hole service.
The mention of John Hussman (I could also have put the estimable Jeff Snider or the Robert Prechter of yore in this piece) is not meant to insult. It is meant to simply state that a fiduciary manager like him, honestly following his work, is not geared to make significant gains during high risk market phases.
I too do not make the gains I could make (temporary though they would be) if I were a blue pill gulping all-in happy idiot. I am bound to ongoing risk management, but also avoiding the red pill while profit making and profit taking (part of risk management) with an awareness of the importance (for me) of high cash levels in a persistently high risk market (as defined by structurally over-bullish sentiment among other things).
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Tuesday, July 06, 2021
You Don't Know How Big of a Bubble Your in until AFTER it BURSTS - Financial Crisis 2.0 / Stock-Markets / Financial Crisis 2021
By: Nadeem_Walayat
I had planned on sending five more biotech stocks to invest and forget for a potential X10 as a continuation of my analysis of 25th May when I covered 5 small cap stocks (4 biotech) (Five More Small Cap Bio and Tech Stocks to Invest for 2021 and Beyond! . However, instead for the past few weeks I have been focused on adding meat to my decision of 17th June 2021 to disinvest from my AI stocks portfolio by reducing it by about 38% to date, having sold 50% of my Google shares, 70% Facebook, 100% Amazon, 100% Nvidia, 100% IBM, and I am contemplating some further selling given that the stocks are over valued and many divergences are taking place in the markets which were giving me flash backs to 2007 (Financial Crisis), 2000 (Dot Com Bubble) and even 1989 (Japanification) as we appear to be in a mix of all 3 bubbles to varying degree, though this does not mean a market top is imminent, it's just that we won't know a top is in until after the fact, anyway I had to de-risk to be able to sleep more comfortably at night and also let my Patrons know what I was doing that this article now seeks to illustrate why as stocks are rising into a high risk environment where complacency and high stakes gambling rules for which we only need to look at the likes of the Cathy Woods funds, Gamestop and the crypto mania bubble that topped in April but still over leveraged vested interests cling onto Bitcoin having bottomed with highly convincing commentary spewed to the masses such as stock to flow, halving's, institutional interest as I covered in my in-depth analysis of 15th June (Bitcoin Bear Market Trend Forecast 2021 and Model Crypto Portfolio Buying Levels). Which to me despite the 50% drop to date, the crypto's are still in a BUBBLE with much further downside to come given the amount of leverage and further exaggerated by the likes Tether the $62 billion ponzi scheme that provides daily liquidity to the crypto markets.
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Tuesday, July 06, 2021
S&P 500 Stock Market Rally – Are We Nearing The Top? / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2021
By: Chris_Vermeulen
Are the US stock markets poised for a reversion price event in the near future? My research team and I believe $4400 on the S&P 500 may be a key psychological level that many traders are unaware of in the immediate term. Some very interesting Fibonacci and Gann dynamics are at play as we watch the excess rally phase continue to drive markets higher. Will the Q2:2021 earning season prompt a blow-off top setup or will the markets continue to rally higher? Continue reading to learn why we are cautious of the $4400 level on the S&P 500 and why you may want to prepare for a moderately big volatility event if our research is correct.
There are a number of key technical components to our research related to the $4400 target peak level for the S&P 500. First, the Fibonacci correlation to the rally phases that have taken place throughout the bullish price waves (1-3-5) since the 2009 bottom. We’ll get to that in a minute. Second, we believe our Gann cycle phase research and Fibonacci Price Amplitude Arc research suggests the current market rally is very over-extended to the upside. In other words, we believe this excessive upside price trending is likely to revert, quite strongly, at some point in the near future.
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Monday, July 05, 2021
Stock Market Projection Reached - Cycles Topping / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2021
By: Andre_Gratian
Current Position of the Market
SPX Long-term trend: There is some evidence that we are still in the bull market which started in 2009 and which could continue into 2021 before major cycles take over and it ends. A move up to ~4500 is possible before the current bull market makes a final top and SPX corrects into its next major cycle low due in 2023.
SPX Intermediate trend: SPX has likely reached the top pf its intermediate phase.
Analysis of the short-term trend is done daily with the help of hourly charts. They are important adjuncts to the analysis of daily and weekly charts which determine longer market trends.
Monday, July 05, 2021
FED: U.S. Cocktail of Growth and Inflation / Stock-Markets / Inflation
By: P_Radomski_CFA
The inflationary cauldron continues to boil. However, the USDX and Treasuries are undervalued relative to U.S. GDP growth prospects. What’s going on?
The Rising Tide of Inflation
While investors are all-in on the U.S. Federal Reserve’s (FED) “transitory” narrative, the inflationary cauldron continues to boil. Case in point: the IHS Markit released its manufacturing PMI on Jul. 1 and the report read that “June PMI data from IHS Markit signaled the joint-fastest improvement in the health of the U.S. manufacturing sector on record.”
Monday, July 05, 2021
Roaring Comeback of Reflation and Commodities / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2021
By: Monica_Kingsley
S&P 500 broadening leadership and fresh reflationary ATHs are here – the FOMC „tightening“ hit notwithstanding. Energy, financials and industrials I discussed yesterday and before, were among the leaders, with tech not staying far behind. Crucially, the tech breadth was also improving – such rotations are the stock bull market‘s health. Neither the VIX nor the put/call ratio are arguing. The sentiment going into today‘s non-farm payrolls, remains constructive, and unlikely to result in reconstruction of the Fed tightening bets. Such was my real-time Twitter interpretation.
Credit markets remained constructive, and risk-on this time – that‘s in line with value upswing, accompanied by the Treasury yields‘ inability to retreat further. Near the top of its recent range, the 10-year Treasury yield is trading within the summer bond market calm atmosphere, and so are the beaten down inflation expectations at a time when:
(…) the dollar is catching a strong bid. We‘re still in a reflation, in the reopening trades stage – one where inflation expectations have been (unduly) hammered down while inflation hasn‘t taken a corresponding turn. Notably, commodities haven‘t been derailed in the least, so pay no attention to lumber – the real assets‘ world is much richer and profitable.
Sunday, July 04, 2021
Where Will The US Stock Markets Take Us Next? / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2021
By: Chris_Vermeulen
As we watched the NASDAQ and S&P 500 rally to the end of Q2:2021, many traders asked themselves “Will this rally continue throughout the early part of Q3:2021 and beyond?”. Although we don’t have a crystal ball to tell you exactly what is going to happen, our price modeling systems, predictive modeling tools and trend analysis systems suggest we will likely see continued upside price trending through at least July 15th to 21st. After the middle of July, we may see another pullback in trends as the markets shift away from the reflation trade expectations and start to react to 2021 holiday/COVID expectations.
The reflation trade rally has been very impressive over the past 12+ months. One simply can’t argue with the price range, trend and volatility that we’ve seen throughout all of 2020 and into the first half of 2021. My team and I expect that volatility to continue, but at a slowly decreasing range into the end of 2021. We also expect a price rotation/reversion may still happen in 2021 that may prompt an 8% to 12% downside price correction (possibly bigger).
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Friday, July 02, 2021
Why This Stock Market Index May Be Headed for a "Bumpy Ride" / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2021
By: EWI
"Money losers tend to be high-beta issues"On Friday, June 25, the Russell indexes underwent their annual rebalancing.
In other words, stocks were moved from the Russell indexes like the Russell 2000 and Russell 1000 based on their size.
This event usually coincides with a big jump in trading volume -- like it did on June 25 -- but generally it's an annual occurrence of little note.
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Thursday, July 01, 2021
Stock Market Bull Run Ignoring Inflation / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2021
By: Monica_Kingsley
S&P 500 reached new highs powered by technology, even as value or Russell 2000 took a daily breather. With VIX going nowhere, and the put/call ratio turning complacent, the path of least resistance remains higher, and not even emerging markets are derailed by the strong dollar. While yesterday‘s stock market upswing was a defensive one as the credit markets and tech internals reveal, there is little to upset the cart – Thursday‘s ISM manufacturing will probably show solid expansion, and it would be only Friday‘s non-farm payrolls (better said what effect these could have on the Fed‘s labor market rationale for keeping the punch bowl available) to bring about volatile trading.
With the Fed support intact and fiscal one not retreating either, with inflation expectations not spiking, the current data are disregarded to a degree. Incorrectly in my view as Friday‘s:
(…) PCE deflator ... figure aligned with the inflation camp much better, yet the marketplace arguably expects better inflation data ahead - the transitory inflation thesis is the mainstream one, but I‘m still of the opinion that inflation wouldn‘t decline as meaningfully, especially when measured through CPI, PPI, and import-export prices, proving more persistent than generally appreciated.
The Fed is behind the curve in taking on inflation even according to El-Erian, and its monetary actions support both the Treasury markets and the red hot real estate. The lull in Treasuries is likely to last into the autumn, and the ensuing yields increase would reflect both the economic recovery and newfound appreciation of inflation. I maintain we‘re still in a reflation – a period of economic growth stronger than inflation – in a multi-year economic expansion, and also that inflation will surprise those considering it transitory (as if this word had any meaning still attached, after all the time length redefinitions). As a side note, if only consumer price inflation was measured without substitution, hedonistic adjustments, and owner‘s equivalent rent. In this environment, tech is unlikely to be derailed, and value will play catch up.
Wednesday, June 30, 2021
How Central Banks Murdered the Markets / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2021
By: Michael_Pento
The Japanese Government Bond market is nearly $10 trillion in size. It is the 2nd biggest bond market in the world. However, it comes as a shock that this humongous market barely trades any longer.The government of Japan has systematically supplanted and killed the entire private market for its bonds. Meaning, there are almost no private investors who will touch it any more. The Bank of Japan has bought so much debt that it forced interest rates below zero percent back in 2016; and the result is the free market has subsequently died.
Investors are now refusing to buy JGBs, which are guaranteed to lose principal in nominal terms—and deeply negative results after adjusting for inflation. But at the same time, are not in any hurry to sell their existing holdings because they understand the government will be propping up bond prices.
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Tuesday, June 29, 2021
Jumping the Fed Tightening Ship / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2021
By: Monica_Kingsley
S&P 500 powered higher after the daily pause, yet its solid gains don‘t have such a risk-on feel as the credit markets do. Depending on tech heavyweights for the lion‘s share of gains isn‘t though an immediate concern – the market breadth is slowly improving after value stocks were bombed out post-FOMC. Signs of life are returning, facilitated by the Fed‘s $8.1T and growing reasons to celebrate, so don‘t be spooked too many lower knots in VIX when there is no panic in the options arena either.
As tech-reliant as the S&P 500 is, the path of least resistance is still higher – and in the same way (tight trailing stop-loss) Nasdaq could be approached too, so as to protect our open profits while letting them grow.
PCE deflator readings often come below CPI thanks to the „weighted substitution effect“ at play, and it would come back to haunt the Fed. Taken to extremes, you downgrade from a steak to a hamburger, and then what? Cat or dog food? Obviously, this measure is favorable to the Fed as it defers the taper speculation further to the future.
Together with the redefinition of how long transitory used to last earlier, and what transitory (inflation) means now, the central bank wins in leaving the punch bowl available for longer (the job market offerrs plenty of excuses too). If last week gave us any lesson, it was that market players are all too quick to sell both the winners and losers. The spike in Treasuries was a clear warning sign of stress.
Monday, June 28, 2021
Stock Market Final try at SPX 4310? / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2021
By: Andre_Gratian
Current Position of the Market
SPX Long-term trend: There is some evidence that we are still in the bull market which started in 2009 and which could continue into 2021 before major cycles take over and it ends. A move up to ~4500 is possible before the current bull market makes a final top and SPX corrects into its next major cycle low due in 2023.
SPX Intermediate trend: SPX Fell short of its base projection of 4310 but may be trying to reach it again.
Analysis of the short-term trend is done daily with the help of hourly charts. They are important adjuncts to the analysis of daily and weekly charts which determine longer market trends.
Monday, June 28, 2021
Trustpac Review / Stock-Markets / Learn to Trade
By: S_N_Chatterjee
About Trustpac
Trustpac is an online trading platform covering over 2,000 tradable assets, including a wide range of cryptocurrencies. A place designed so traders will be able to invest with confidence, this is one of the few brands that are offering access to all their trading features for all customers, requiring only a $250 initial deposit to get started.
Regardless of trading strategy or style, this platform can fit the needs of a diversified audience. Customers will be able to use over 70 technical indicators, thousands of charts, client sentiment indicators, price alerts, and even the Social Trading feature. Let’s see what other benefits you can get when opening an account with Trustpac.
Sunday, June 27, 2021
Market Bubbles Galore / Stock-Markets / Liquidity Bubble
By: MoneyMetals
Is the entire financial system currently in a massive bubble? That is the question that astute investors may now be asking.
According to Nouriel Roubini, CEO of Roubini Macro Associates and professor at NYU Stern School of Business, now is the time to be overweight gold as more bubbles pop up.
Stocks, bonds, crypto, tech, real estate, whatever sector you want to focus on – these all appear to now be building into or rapidly falling from bubble territory.
The higher these markets do ascend, the greater the eventual fall may be.
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Friday, June 25, 2021
Are The US Major Stock Market Indexes Rolling Over In An Excess Phase Peak Setup? / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2021
By: Chris_Vermeulen
Recently, I published a research article on Bitcoin suggesting there may be a bigger downside price move setting up – breaking support near $30k and extending the Excess Phase Peak pattern that we warned about back in November 2020. Today, my team and I wanted to alert you that the recent price rotation in the Dow Jones Industrial Average and the Transportation Index COULD setup in an early stage (Phase #2) peaking formation similar to what started the recent down trend in Bitcoin.
The setup of the Excess Phase peak pattern consists of an exuberant rally to a peak (Phase #1), followed by a moderate price correction that sets up into a sideways flagging pattern (Phase #2). If the INDU and TRAN continue to move in a sideways flagging formation after recently move moderately lower, we may start to see a new Excess Phase Peak setup in these two major indexes. This could be a warning of a much bigger breakdown in trend in the near future.
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Thursday, June 24, 2021
"Everybody's Getting Rich (and Having Fun) Except Me" / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2021
By: EWI
The idea of "missing out" on stock market gains "literally generates fear in many people"
Hardly anyone wants to miss the party -- whether on Wall Street or elsewhere.
Thus, the acronym FOMO -- which stands for the "fear of missing out" -- is in vogue. After a 12-years long bull market, the acronym has appeared in many financial articles.
Yet, the acronym was coined years before the current bull market.
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Wednesday, June 23, 2021
Stock Market Calling the Fed‘s Bluff / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2021
By: Monica_Kingsley
S&P 500 risk-on trading yesterday confirmed that it would have indeed been too early to write off value stocks. Financials, energy sprang higher, accompanied by the as of late usual tech suspect – the heavyweights though merely defended gained ground. Coupled with the credit market perspectives, it was a clear risk-on day as evidenced by the VIX and put/call ratio. The markets have turned on a dime, ignoring the Fed messaging of prior week as shown in the surging CRB index, reversing dollar and Treasuries:
(…) Given the ease with which precious metals and then select commodities such as copper or soybeans tumbled, rate hikes might appear to be baked in the cake now – but in reality, it‘s the unyielding inflation that would prove rather persistent than transitory.
The Fed did the bare minimum, acknowledging inflation in passing, implying it would go away on its own. But it‘s more complicated than that – bank credit creation isn‘t strong, and had been declining before bond yields bottomed in Aug 2020. Are banks reluctant to lend, or customers to borrow? The result of production not ramping up as wildly as expected (reopening trades) is compounding the disturbed supply chains and commodity prices rising (cost-push inflation). Add to that job market pressures, and you have a recipe for inflation being more transitory than originally thought. In other words, cyclical and structural as import-export prices hint at too.
Tuesday, June 22, 2021
Stock Market Correction Starting / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2021
By: Andre_Gratian
Current Position of the Market
SPX Long-term trend: There is some evidence that we are still in the bull market which started in 2009 and which could continue into 2021 before major cycles take over and it ends. A move up to ~4500 is possible before the current bull market makes a final top and SPX corrects into its next major cycle low due in 2023.
SPX Intermediate trend: SPX Fell short of its base projection and turned down from 4257
Analysis of the short-term trend is done daily with the help of hourly charts. They are important adjuncts to the analysis of daily and weekly charts which determine longer market trends.
Friday, June 18, 2021
Has the Dust Settled After Fed Day? Not Just Yet. / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2021
By: Mike_Paulenoff
I am going to look at a few markets (ES, Gold, DXY) that have reacted significantly to the Fed's "message" from yesterday afternoon. What's the message? Here's my synopsis:
After pumping $8 trillion into the economy since March 2020 to provide the necessary stimulus to emerge from the pandemic lockdown, growth is relatively strong, inflation is finally above our 2% benchmark-- though probably will prove to be a transient blip, but the labor market remains well-below Full Employment... So we think we might need to raise the Fed funds rate a measly 25 basis points at the end of 2022, and maybe another measly 25 basis points at the beginning of 2023. In the interim, nothing really will change.
If my synopsis of what the Fed said yesterday (remember, they didn't DO anything) is reasonably on point, then we see a host of previously one-way markets reacting to "the news" with counter-trend moves that should prove to be a healthy refresher of their still powerful dominant trends.
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Friday, June 18, 2021
AI Stock Buying Levels, Ratings, Valuations Video / Stock-Markets / AI
By: Nadeem_Walayat
Here is my updated AI stocks table with buying levels to capitalise upon during the anticipated stock market correction. In terms of overall valuations the portfolio is a little more expensive today than at my last update with some individual stocks very overbought so should be primed for a correction during May as I first flagged to expect in my analysis of 9th of Feb.
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Thursday, June 17, 2021
AI Stock Buying Levels, Ratings, Valuations and Trend Analysis into Market Correction / Stock-Markets / AI
By: Nadeem_Walayat
This is part 3 of my recent extensive analysis focused on updated buying levels for my AI tech stocks portfolio going into the summer stock market correction, of what I will be looking to accumulate at what price levels.
Part 1 covered Tesla, ARK Funds and more - TESLA! Cathy Wood ARK Funds Bubble BURSTS!
Part 2 covered The Top 5 AI stocks trend analysis - Top 5 AI Tech Stocks Trend Analysis, Buying Levels, Ratings and Valuations
Whilst the whole of this extensive analysis AI Stock Buying Levels, Ratings, Valuations and Trend Analysis into Market Correction was first been made available to Patrons who support my work.
Contents:
- TESLA
- Cathy Wood ARK Funds CRASH!
- India Apocalypse Heralds Catastrophe for Pakistan and Bangladesh
- Covid-19 in Italy in August 2019!
- Stock Market Early Summer Correction Trend Forecast
- Stocks Expensive or Cheap Indicator (EC)
- AI Stock Buy % Rating Review
- 1. GOOGLE - $2398
- 2. AMAZON - $3312
- 3. MICROSOFT - $252.5
- 4. APPLE - $130
- 5. FACEBOOK - $320
- 6. NVIDIA - $592.5
- 7. AMD - $78.8
- 11. IBM - $145.5
- 12. INTEL - $57.7
- AI Stocks Buying Levels Update May 2021
- So what am I going to do
- GPU Mining FREE MONEY!
- CHIA Crypto Farming with Your Hard Drives Insanity!
Thursday, June 17, 2021
Stocks, Gold, Silver Markets Inflation Tipping Point / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2021
By: Monica_Kingsley
S&P 500 hasn‘t extended Monday‘s gains, continuing to trade in a cautious, tight range. Not that it would be driven by Treasury yields that much on a daily basis – the tech breather was one day delayed, but still didn‘t erase Monday‘s gains in full. Yes, Nasdaq didn‘t reverse, and I‘m looking for it to reassert its strength in spite of having approached the rising resistance line connecting the Feb and Apr highs.
Sure, a little rotation later today wouldn‘t be unimaginable as I am looking for the Fed to largely bypass bringing up taper, which would mean continued ostrich pose when faced with rising inflation (did you see yesterday‘s PPI beating expectations? Another confirmation of my Monday‘s points of inflation being baked in the cake, and in spite of all the transitory rhetoric, working its way through the system as reliably as water through Titanic‘s compartments. The coming Fed disappointment in doing the right thing (fighting inflation even as late as it is now before the expectations become obviously unanchored, eventually turning velocity of money around).
Let‘s check my Monday‘s assumptions and where we stand in the run up to today‘s FOMC:
(…) Paring the bets is getting underway before this week‘s FOMC – the Fed is perceived to perhaps want to at least start debating taper, if not present the sketch of its seriously watered down shape. They‘ll make taper hints and noises at most, it would be much ado about nothing – the markets are just getting spooked now, most notably the dollar (having risen on the unreasonable expectation something palpable and material would come out of that – but remember, talk is cheap, and Jackson Hole is the more likely venue and time that would happen, with 2022 most probably being the year of taper).
The yields reprieve … I see lasting through the summer. Autumn, that would be another cup of tea – apart from the unyielding $CRB index, rising oil prices affecting sectors beyond transportation, and the job market heating up (hiring difficulties), the serene period in Treasuries would be over. Yes, that means I think the bond markets have it wrong with their sudden appreciation, and that equities and commodities are right not to tumble.
Wednesday, June 16, 2021
Stock Market Sentiment Speaks: Inflation Is For Fools / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2021
By: Avi_Gilburt
I asked you in my last article if you were more concerned with name calling than with profiting from the market. So, I was wondering if you gave it any more thought, and if you had come to a conclusion?
If not, well, let's discuss this a bit further.
Everyone today is so concerned about "inflation." Yet, everyone seems to be arguing as to whether we are experiencing inflation today. Some claim that this is true inflation, whereas others claim that it is simply transitory.
My personal opinion resides on the transitory spectrum of this issue, and I believe that over the next 6-12 months we will see the shortages easing, especially in the labor force, as we stop paying people to stay at home. But to be honest, I don't care whether my opinion is right or wrong on this issue, as it does not help me make money in the stock market.
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Tuesday, June 15, 2021
Inflation and Stock Market SPX Record Highs. PPI, FOMC Meeting in Focus / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2021
By: Paul_Rejczak
Everyone (and I mean everyone) has been talking about inflation. We finally got the CPI print on Thursday: 0.6% vs. 0.4% expected! The S&P 500 didn’t seem to care, though. Record highs! What’s next?
Inflation is real, folks. Two monthly prints in a row now, with the most recent June print showing the largest increases in used cars/trucks, transportation services, fuel oil, and apparel. Initially, the CPI data release was sold in futures trading at 8:30 AM on Thursday, but price action quickly reversed to the upside. This price action stuck out to me. Markets do not always react as expected when data releases come out. In a bull market like this, sometimes the data doesn’t matter. This price action tells us a story.
Tuesday, June 15, 2021
Stock Market SPX 4310 Right Around the Corner! / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2021
By: Andre_Gratian
Current Position of the Market
SPX Long-term trend: There is some evidence that we are still in the bull market which started in 2009 and which could continue into 2021 before major cycles take over and it ends. A move up to ~4500 is possible before the current bull market makes a final top and SPX corrects into its next major cycle low due in 2023.
SPX Intermediate trend: SPX is approaching its intermediate top projection of ~4310.
Analysis of the short-term trend is done daily with the help of hourly charts. They are important adjuncts to the analysis of daily and weekly charts which determine longer market trends.
Monday, June 14, 2021
More Banks & Investors Are NOT Believing Fed Propaganda / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2021
By: MoneyMetals
As inflation continues to heat up, gold and silver markets are once again on the verge of breaking out.
On Thursday, the Bureau of Labor Statistics released much-anticipated Consumer Price Index data. The CPI came in at a full 5.0% year over year through May.
The so-called “core” rate, which excludes food and energy, showed an annual increase of 3.8%. That represents the biggest jump since all the way back in 1992.
Meanwhile, Federal Reserve officials continue to downplay the inflation threat. They insist the recent surge is transitory and doesn’t reflect a major trend to come.
But as Denver’s local 9NEWS reported, not all economists are echoing the Fed’s messaging on inflation.
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Monday, June 14, 2021
Market Inflation Bets – Squaring or Not / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2021
By: Monica_Kingsley
S&P 500 shook off another record making inflation reading, and bond markets couldn‘t be happier. Volatility is back down, but the option traders turned cautious – that‘s fodder for the next upswing eventually. Many signs are pointing towards it – emerging markets rising with the dollar on the defensive, for example. Yes, the dollar with yields are key to watch now.
S&P 500 was led higher by Nasdaq, which more than welcomed further retreat in yields. The tech led rally is here, and value while not down and out, is taking a breather. Especially financials don‘t like the move in yields, and we aren‘t at the 1.40% mark on 10-year Treasury bond yet. The summer lull in bonds is here, and my views on inflation getting permanently elevated, Fed‘s taper plays, bond yields retreat, inflation rearing its ugly head later this year before a growth scare strikes, can be found in the Latest Highlights and this week‘s articles amply discussed.
So, stocks don‘t look like retreating, as the bond market momentum doesn‘t favor much downside, and tech would likely overpower that.
Let‘s briefly check the reactions of other markets to yesterday‘s well telegraphed CPI springboard theme in stocks and precious metals.
Monday, June 14, 2021
The FED Holds the Market. How Long Will It Last? / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2021
By: P_Radomski_CFA
With investors discrediting fundamentals to follow the FED’s instruction, it seems everything relies now on a few people’s say-so.
It's a Bird, It's a Plane, It's the FED
With Jerome Powell, Chairman of the U.S. Federal Reserve (FED), donning his cape like Superman and his monetary crew akin to The Avengers, investors’ faith in the FED was on full display on Jun. 10. Case in point: with the headline Consumer Price Index (CPI) surging by 4.93% year-over-year (YoY) – the highest YoY percentage increase since 2008 – the bond, stock and currency markets barely flinched.
The commodity PPI surged by 17.25% YoY in April. And if you exclude the 17.36% YoY jump in July 2008, it was the largest YoY percentage increase since December 1974. For context, the commodity PPI often leads the headline CPI and that’s why tracking the former’s movement is so important. Moreover, reconnecting with the green line implies a ~5.50% YoY percentage increase in the headline CPI.
Wednesday, June 09, 2021
SELL USDT Tether Before Ponzi Scheme Implodes Triggering 90% Bitcoin CRASH in Cryptos Lehman Bros / Stock-Markets / cryptocurrency
By: Nadeem_Walayat
USDT Tether! The crypto equovalent of Lehman bros, everythings fine until this ponzie scheme goes POP! Taking the whole crypto markets down with it by a good 90%! Find out in my latest video whats going to happen and why and what I am doing about it to protect myself from Crypto Lehman bros.
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Wednesday, June 09, 2021
Stock Market Sentiment Speaks: Prepare For Volatility / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2021
By: Avi_Gilburt
While some of you think that I dismiss your comments to my articles, I will be honest with you that some comments make me think, whereas some just make me scratch my head.
Last week, I outlined one of the issues that many have with EW, and that is related to the provision of a primary count and an alternative count. And, I addressed that concern as follows:
Again, this is simply based upon a lack of understanding as to how Elliott Wave analysis works. I have addressed this argument many times before, but I think it is worthwhile to address it one more time.
First, one has to ask themselves if any methodology will provide "definitive" guidance in the financial markets? Remember, we deal with a non-linear environment, and need to apply a non-linear methodology to obtain the greatest success within such an environment.
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Wednesday, June 09, 2021
How do I Choose an Online Trading Broker? / Stock-Markets / Learn to Trade
By: Sumeet_Manhas
The Internet is full of stories of people who have become successful Forex brokers without even financial experience and education. Undoubtedly, it is tempting for every person to try themselves in Forex trading to understand if it is the niche where they can make money. If you are one of them, one of the first steps is the selection of a Forex broker and a platform. When it comes to the choice of a broker, there are some crucial aspects to take into consideration.
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Tuesday, June 08, 2021
Stock Market Approaching an Intermediate peak! / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2021
By: Andre_Gratian
Current Position of the Market
SPX Long-term trend: There is some evidence that we are still in the bull market which started in 2009 and which could continue into 2021 before major cycles take over, and it ends. A move up to ~4500 is possible before the current bull market makes a final top and SPX corrects into its next major cycle low due in 2023.
SPX Intermediate trend: Phase three (wave 5 from 3723) is now likely underway.
Analysis of the short-term trend is done daily with the help of hourly charts. They are important adjuncts to the analysis of daily and weekly charts which determine longer market trends.
Monday, June 07, 2021
Stock Market Volatility Crash Course (VIX vs VVIX) – Learn How to Profit From Volatility / Stock-Markets / Volatility
By: Chris_Vermeulen
Volatility is the most common way to measure risk in the financial markets. While there are a plethora of methods, calculations, and derivatives to calculate volatility, they are all trying to accomplish the same goal: what is the price of a security going to do in the future? Without a crystal ball, there’s no perfect answer, but let’s go through a few common ways that we can estimate future volatility.
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Saturday, June 05, 2021
Stock Market Sentiment Speaks: I 'Believe' We Rally Into A June Swoon / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2021
By: Avi_Gilburt
It is now approaching almost a decade since I began writing public articles outlining my analysis in various markets. And, I have learned a lot about the general investor community based upon many of the comments I have received during that time.
One of the things that I find quite pervasive is the drive for "common-think." But, even that is a misleading classification. You see, I do not believe investors think anymore.
Rather, I see investors often grab onto something they read or hear in the media, and take personal "ownership" over that idea because it resonates with them for whatever reason. It then becomes the basis for their entire view of the market, and they seek articles which provide confirmation to their bias, and argue with articles that do not. So, rather than seeking out the truth in the market and continually testing their perspective in an objective fashion, most investors simply adopt a personal opinion and ignore or attack anything that disagrees with that opinion. Therefore, truth and profit in investing no longer seem to be the ultimate goal.
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Saturday, June 05, 2021
Stock Market Russell 2000 After Reaching A Trend Channel High Flags Out / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2021
By: Chris_Vermeulen
The Russell 2000, which had experienced an incredible 48% upside price rally after the November 2020 US elections, has recently peaked near an upward sloping price channel that originated shortly after the 2010 Housing Crisis bottom. The incredible aspect is that the post-COVID price rally accelerated at such an extreme rate that the current peak level (highlighted by the MAGENTA circle on the chart below) represents an extreme rally phase in price. Unquestionably, at this point, the markets are searching for a new trend and the IWM has consolidated into a sideways Flagging price formation.
I believe global traders are currently searching for new opportunities and have taken the past 45+ days to re-evaluate the extent of the post-COVID rally in the markets. Ironically, the IWM and SPY show similar types of extreme rallies to a previous (2009~2010) price channel high. It is the opinion of my team and I that the markets have entered an over-enthusiastic rally phase to reach these levels and are currently stalling while searching for a new trend.
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Friday, June 04, 2021
Investors Who Blindly Trust the ‘Experts’ Will Get Left Behind / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2021
By: MoneyMetals
The country has largely been divided into two camps. The first camp is full of people who just don’t pay too much attention. They have unshakable faith in Wall Street and government institutions.
The typical investor buys stocks for the long haul. It might be because financial advisors are just as unquestioning, knowing they are rarely criticized for following the herd.
Sadly, mainstream advisors still snicker whenever a client brings up gold – even though the naysayers have been wrong about gold for 20 years.
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Friday, June 04, 2021
US Stock Market Indexes Consolidate Into Flagging Pattern – Watch For Aggressive Trending Soon / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2021
By: Chris_Vermeulen
Over the past few weeks, the US major indexes have consolidated into a sideways price channel. This is most obvious on the NASDAQ and SPY charts as we’ve seen moderately deep pullbacks through the months of April/May 2021. My research suggests this sideways price Flagging might be concerning for active traders/investors.
When the market flags into a sideways price pattern and near an Apex level, price tends to act in a very aggressive manner while attempting to establish a new trend. The longer price continues to trade within that sideways/flagging price range, the more aggressive and violent the new trend may be when it finally breaks free of the sideways price channel.
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Thursday, June 03, 2021
No More Market Bloodbath – Beyond Cryptos / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2021
By: Monica_Kingsley
S&P 500 again rejected within sight of ATHs – again, but not totally convincingly. Especially the credit markets‘ mixed picture leans in effect slightly bullish, yet for the 500-strong index, the source of short-term worry would likely be the tech sector again. Either not pulling ahead as strongly, or taking a breather, which should be more noticeable in XLK than in Nasdaq 100.
VIX looks to be done declining, and the option traders have hedged their Thursday‘s bets. Given the wavering risk-on segment of the credit markets, it‘s probably justifiably enough. Inflation expectations rose a little though, faster than the Treasury yields moved, which could be taken as a sign of value likely to do overall fine next – and that‘s also confirmed by smallcaps and emerging markets. As I wrote on Friday:
(…) Is that the worst of the inflation scare being over, for now? Probably yes, and the retreating Treasury yields are mollifying – but as explained in ample detail, this calm before the (autumn) storm, is deceptive. Calling the Fed‘s bluff, precious metals (and some commodities) are onto something, really.
It‘s only the cream of select commodities that has been taken off – in the big scheme of things, nothing but a consolidation within an existing secular bull market, is happening there. While the inflation trades have been dialed back to a degree, they haven‘t been broken as the Fed is in a reactive, not proactive mode. More precisely, it remains in denial of the inflation ahead.
In other words, I am not buying into the taper smoke and mirrors. The Fed knows that it can‘t (seriously) take away the support – it can only talk that, and look what the market does next. It‘s a long journey of preparation, and I am not looking for the central bank to move any time soon:
Thursday, June 03, 2021
Bank run, or run from the banks? / Stock-Markets / Financial Crisis 2021
By: Raymond_Matison
Our nation’s economic conditions have been influenced negatively by a viral lockdown of overall industry such that many of its component parts are in dire financial straits, and a large portion of our total labor force not earning an adequate or any income. This has easily understandable consequences to our overall national economic fabric. For example, as individuals have less or even no earned income - it implies reduced spending on their behalf, which for a consumer–based economy has notably negative consequences. Also when a lockdown occurs people cannot and do not spend as much money – so our consumer driven economy is debilitated.Lower consumer spending also means reduced revenues and profits for manufacturers, distributors and marketers. Lower income for both individuals and companies necessarily means lower taxes collected by local and national governments, usually weakening their capabilities for stimulative fiscal policies.
Lower consumer incomes also mean that credit card, auto and mortgage loan defaults will rise – as indeed they have risen over the last several years and are likely to rise further. The inability of consumers to pay rent will cause owners of rental properties to default on their mortgages. Lower corporate profits suggests that available bank company credit lines will be tightened, and corporate bond defaults necessarily rise. Local, state, and national governments collecting fewer dollars in taxes suggests that their borrowing has to increase, heightening the concern also over such more significant bond defaults. None of this is rocket science. Corroborating this with pithy charts or tables is now unnecessary and unproductive – as such data has been ignored by investors for a decade or more, while the Federal Reserve has been flooding the country with newly created, inflationary money. Individuals, companies, and governments believe that they will always be bailed out by FED money easing policies! But quite the opposite is the truth: debt and FED money printing is now destroying both money and the economy.
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Wednesday, June 02, 2021
Stock Market Breakout Or Breakdown – What Does The Next Big Trend Look Like? / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2021
By: Chris_Vermeulen
Just in case you missed this recent research article, we wanted to put it back on top of your reading list for the long Memorial Day weekend. As the markets continue to slide into this “Start of Summer” holiday, we’re still seeing big trends setting up over the next few weeks and months. The way certain assets and sectors are reacting right now may lead many investors to believe a breakout trend is setting up (which could be the case). But, behind the scenes, sectors are starting to show signs of a broader Excess Phase Peak pattern that may surprise those that are not paying attention.
Our Custom Volatility Index, shown below, suggests the markets have now rallied into extreme overbought levels which have historically resulted in a moderate price pullback after reaching levels above 13~14. We may start out seeing some type of bigger price trending/rotation after the long Memorial Day Holiday should this indicator prove accurate.
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Tuesday, June 01, 2021
Stock Market Buy the Dip, Again?! / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2021
By: Monica_Kingsley
S&P 500 attempted a breakout, but retreated. Is that a reversal, or proof of more pressure building up? Much starker move in the high yield corporate bonds would speak in favor of a reversal, but only until the higher end of the debt markets is examined. Or the volume for that matter, as these would put the reversal hypothesis to rest.
VIX continues turning lower, and option traders are getting the message – finally, the put/call ratio appears to be on a declining path, meaning that fewer market participants are expecting another shoe to drop. As if one fell in the first place, really. Is that the worst of the inflation scare being over, for now? Probably yes, and the retreating Treasury yields are mollifying – but as explained in ample detail, this calm before the (autumn) storm, is deceptive. Calling the Fed‘s bluff, precious metals (and some commodities) are onto something, really.
One more proof why the stock market bears are at a disadvantage, comes from other indices, namely the Russell 2000 (look for value to benefit), and emerging markets. The magic of ample Fed support is making its way through the system, lifting prices in many asset classes amid still rampant speculation. It‘s only the cream of select commodities that has been taken off – in the big scheme of things, nothing but a consolidation within an existing secular bull market, is happening there. While the inflation trades have been dialed back to a degree, they haven‘t been broken as the Fed is in a reactive, not proactive mode. More precisely, it remains in denial of the inflation ahead.
Tuesday, June 01, 2021
Stock Market Consolidation Ahead / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2021
By: Andre_Gratian
Current Position of the Market
SPX Long-term trend: There is some evidence that we are still in the bull market which started in 2009 and which could continue into the first half of 2021 before major cycles take over, and it ends. A move up to ~4500 is possible before the current bull market makes a final top and SPX corrects into its next major cycle low due in 2023.
SPX Intermediate trend: Phase three (wave 5 from 3723) is now likely underway.
Analysis of the short-term trend is done daily with the help of hourly charts. They are important adjuncts to the analysis of daily and weekly charts which determine longer market trends.
Monday, May 31, 2021
Stock Market Summer Correction Review, Crypto CRASH, Bitcoin Bear Market Initial Targets / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2021
By: Nadeem_Walayat
This article is an excerpt from my recent extensive analysis that concludes in my latest biotech stock picks with the potential to X10 over the coming years Five More Small Cap Bio and Tech Stocks to Invest for 2021 and Beyond! that has first been made available to Patrons who support my work.
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- Invest and Forget
- Stock Market Early Summer Correction Review
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- RISK RATINGS
- WESTERN DIGITAL - WDC $71 - CHIA! - Risk 1
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- Biotech stock 1 - Cheap Low Risk Pharma - Risk 1
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Friday, May 28, 2021
Stock Market Early Summer Correction Review / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2021
By: Nadeem_Walayat
Five more small cap high risk stocks with the potential to X10 to invest in for 2021 and beyond, which follows on from my analysis of 9th of April How to Invest in HIGH RISK Tech Stocks for 2021 and Beyond featuring 5 stocks as I am seeking to replenish my portfolio after many former small cap high risk stocks have either been taken over or migrated into becoming 'safe' stocks such as Nvidia, AMD and TSMC, where the best of the new stocks in terms of current valuations was Corsair.
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Friday, May 28, 2021
Eerily Serene Risk off Financial Markets / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2021
By: Monica_Kingsley
S&P 500 had a mixed day, and the credit market underlines the shift to risk-off. Halfway shift, to be precise – the high yield corporate bonds recovered the intraday downside but value sold off all the way to the closing bell. Well, rising yields used to add to tech‘s problems since mid Feb, and retreating yields don‘t breathe enough life into the sector now. It‘s clearly visible that the high beta segments are facing the yields‘ headwinds while $NYFANG is in the black, but more than a little lagging.
The Treasury market reprieve I announced on May 18 to last more than a good few weeks, is here. While it works to lift tech and hamper value, the days of value doing fine are far from over as the VTV:QQQ ratio illustrates:
(…) We‘re still in the value outperforming growth environment (reflation and reopening themes), it‘s just right now (last few days) that tech is pulling stronger ahead than value. ... Value‘s reaction to the yields trajectory ahead would be telling, and I have no doubts there is quite some more juice left in the long value trade (and that the Russell 2000 isn‘t rolling over to the downside here).
Emerging markets are welcoming the dollar woes and yields reprieve, and the Russell 2000 isn‘t too much of a drag either. VIX refused further downside yesterday, and is hedging off bets as much as the option players do – no change in prior trends here, just a move away from the complacent end of the spectrum. The stock bull run is still about dips being bought.
Friday, May 28, 2021
Stock Market Cycles Tipping From Euphoria To Complacency – Gold Setting Up For Rally Above $2000 Again? / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2021
By: Chris_Vermeulen
Gold has set up a very strong confluence pattern across multiple foreign currencies recently. This upside confluence pattern suggests that Gold has now moved into a much stronger bullish price phase compared to various currency pairs. This upside move in precious metals aligns very well with my broad market cycle phase research. I urge traders/investors to start paying attention as we transition into this new longer-term cycle phase.
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Friday, May 28, 2021
Inflation Cools (For Now) Stagflation Awaits / Stock-Markets / Stagflation
By: Gary_Tanashian
To maintain the inflation, a cooling of inflation was needed
That is one of those Alice in Wonderland-like statements, like the one I’ve got tattooed on my left forearm: “Contrary-wise, what is it wouldn’t be and what it wouldn’t be it would, you see?”
To maintain inflationary policy, as per various talking Fed (egg) heads, the hysterical run up in inflationary expectations and fears had to be tamped down. And so, Google users have indeed eased their neuroses right along with a recent tamping of inflationary hysteria.
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Wednesday, May 26, 2021
FREE Report - This Stock Strategy beat the market by 220% / Stock-Markets / Investing 2021
By: Submissions
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Monday, May 24, 2021
Stock Market New Uptrend Starting? / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2021
By: Andre_Gratian
Current Position of the Market
SPX Long-term trend: There is some evidence that we are still in the bull market which started in 2009 and which could continue into the first half of 2021 before major cycles take over, and it ends. A move past 4500 is possible before the current bull market makes a final top and SPX corrects into its next major cycle low due in 2023.
SPX Intermediate trend: Phase three (wave 5 rom 3723) is now likely underway.
Analysis of the short-term trend is done daily with the help of hourly charts. They are important adjuncts to the analysis of daily and weekly charts which determine longer market trends.
Daily market analysis of the short-term trend is reserved for subscribers. If you would like to sign up for a FREE 2-week trial period of daily comments, please let me know at anvi1962@cableone.net
Sunday, May 23, 2021
Crypto, Stock Markets Rising from the Ashes / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2021
By: Monica_Kingsley
S&P 500 caught a partial bid yesterday, enough to stave off the break of prior Wednesday‘s lows. All isn‘t fine under the surface though as yet another Fed trial baloon emerges – this time, talking about talking taper, doing predictable wonders for the dollar. As I have stated, it‘s when the Fed would really move that the greenback would go up again. The important word here is „really“ - this doesn‘t qualify yet, but the noises can‘t be ignored.
That‘s taking me to the partial bid mention as it shows in the S&P 500 sectoral action – tech rises and value continues trembling. The Russell 2000 keeps lagging while emerging markets seem to still doubt the Fed‘s seriousness. But the VIX daily move is positive as the daily spike has been clearly rejected – another, this time a smaller and pickier algo repositioning at work. At the same time, option players got positioned for another shoe to drop, tying in well with their moves overall since late Feb.
Inflationary fears aren‘t by any means quelled just yet – Treasuries disregarded yesterday‘s retreat in inflation expectations. The Fed approach needs a refresher:
Sunday, May 23, 2021
True or False: Inflation = Stock Market Sell-off? / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2021
By: EWI
Before you answer, recognize that the "market has a law of its own"
The topic of inflation has been grabbing a lot of financial headlines.
Indeed, financial journalists have "blamed" inflation for recent stock market sell-offs.
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Saturday, May 22, 2021
What Investors and Traders Should Be Doing About the Stock Market’s Strange Behavior / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2021
By: Stephen_McBride
Today, I’m going to answer a question that’s likely on your mind. It’s about the stock market’s recent strange behavior and the one thing ALL investors and traders should be doing about it.You see, one of the very first stocks I ever recommended just reported phenomenal earnings. Sales jumped 37%. The company acquired a record number of customers, and it forecasts great sales again next quarter. What do you think happened to the stock price? We’ll come back to this in a moment.
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Thursday, May 20, 2021
Credit Market Wheels in Danger of Coming Off? / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2021
By: Monica_Kingsley
SPX backing and filling worthy of Monday‘s session – with important rotations below the surface. Namely, tech and Nasdaq underwent daily consolidation on long-dated Treasuries retreating a little. Key point though was rejection of the intraday downside, making the S&P 500 pendulum likelier to swing this week again bullish. The VIX spike was rejected while option traders didn‘t give up much of their bearish resolve, which doesn‘t spoil the bullish picture though.
Stock trading yesterday was accompanied by the bond markets moving down. Such a non-confirmation is encouraging in its implications, as the markets are still taking seriously the transitory inflation messaging in light of the less alarming nature of Thursday‘s PPI. Seems like we‘re in for a few relatively stable weeks of Treasury yields undeperforming inflation expectations before the yield climb returns:
(…) The transitory inflation story got modestly supported, but while I think that the red hot CPI inflation would die down a little (i.e. not keep rising ever as steeply as was the case with Wednesday‘s data) once the year on year base to compare it against normalizes, a permanently elevated plateau of high and rising inflation would be a reality for more than foreseeable future simply because the Fed would be as behind as Arthur Burns was in fighting the 1970s inflation, and upward price pressures in the job market pressures would kick in.
Wednesday, May 19, 2021
Stock Market Same Old Song and Dance – Almost / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2021
By: Monica_Kingsley
Pendulum keeps swinging back into the S&P 500 bullish camp, as the Nasdaq rebound was mightily aided by rising long-dated Treasuries while value couldn‘t care less about their direction. Just as sharply the VIX rose, that steeply it retreated over the past two days, hinting that stocks are returning back to the old normal, which means about to go upwards. Option traders didn‘t agree that profoundly, but they aren‘t sending a trustworthy warning sign.
I care more about corporate bond markets returning to life, and the retreating yields once the less alarming nature of Thursday‘s PPI has been digested. The transitory inflation story got modestly supported, but while I think that the red hot CPI inflation would die down a little (i.e. not keep rising ever as steeply as was the case with Wednesday‘s data) once the year on year base to compare it against normalizes, a permanently elevated plateau of high and rising inflation would be a reality for more than foreseeable future simply because the Fed would be as behind as Arthur Burns was in fighting the 1970s inflation, and upward price pressures in the job market pressures would kick in.
Given though the mammoth scale of money printing and fiscal injections that surely has the bond vigilantes rolling in their graves, it‘s miraculous that the bond markets aren‘t revolting more, much more. Okay, you may look at it as that the 10-year Treasury yield has more than tripled since August, but the low base (0.5% rate) is distorting the view. Plenty of room still before financial repression enters stage right even more noticeably (we are nowhere near the panic yield levels causing genuine hardship for the S&P 500), but we have time – I am looking for a reprieve in the Treasuries markets, which would help especially the tech sector recovery.
Tuesday, May 18, 2021
Are Apple, Tesla, and Bitcoin Entering Market Technical Excess Top Phase? / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2021
By: Chris_Vermeulen
In the first part of this research series, I highlighted the broad market cycles and what technical analysts call the “Excess Phase Top” process, which usually takes place after the market’s peak and set up a downward price trend. There are a number of technical setups that take place throughout this process. Today, I will be exploring the charts of Tesla (TSLA), Apple (AAPL), and Bitcoin (BTC) to see where they are in the process.
The suggestion I am making by highlighting these market trends and setups is that a Cash Position is a viable allocation of capital away from risks and losses. Many traders don’t view a cash position as a properly allocated use of capital. We believe taking a cash position at the right times can and does provide very clear benefits, including:
- Eliminating risks of further losses/drawdowns.
- Setting up a process of protecting cash and waiting for a confirmed re-entry trigger.
- Avoiding the failure of buying into a declining market – which is one of the biggest faults of active traders.
- Using the Cash position as a hedge against shifting currency/market valuations.
Remember, in many cases, broad market downtrends are often associated with bigger trends in currencies and global market sectors. Chasing these trends can lead to further risks if you are not careful and skilled in your trading decisions. Keeping your capital in a Cash Allocation/Position is often the easiest and safest way for you to ride out volatile downside price trends and allows you to re-deploy your cash into new trades when the time is right.
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Monday, May 17, 2021
Stock Market - Should You Be In Cash Right Now? / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2021
By: Chris_Vermeulen
Sometimes there are very clear advantages to being in an all-cash position and avoiding the risks in the US/Global markets. For example, you should consider cash as a position when the markets begin to execute a broad market consolidation pattern that often results in many weeks or months of sideways, choppy price activity. You should also consider going to cash when a bigger shift in market trends takes place, putting your account at real risk should there be a 20% to 30%+ downside price trend setting up. Moving your assets away from these risks and into cash as early as possible can save thousands of dollars in unwanted – and worse yet totally avoidable – losses.
I know the rules of the game, and how everyone always says “it is better to ride out the trends and buy into the dips in the long run”. Well, we believe there is a better way to approach these bigger market trends that do not include riding out massive downside price trends – watching our wealth melt away as the markets collapse. We believe the purpose of actively managing your investments/trades should include a “cash position” as an active instrument in your portfolio. Why? Because moving your assets away from risks and into a cash position can often create a major advantage for all types of investors. We will get into more detail about this later.
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Sunday, May 16, 2021
Is Stock Market Selling Madness About Over? / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2021
By: Monica_Kingsley
The inflation scare amplified by CPI data has died down yesterday a little. Buying returned into the S&P 500, lifting Nasdaq ever so little too. VIX steeply rejected moving higher, and looks ready to decline today, but the put/call ratio doesn‘t share the optimism as obviously the bearish scenarios, powered by the inflation scare forcing a deflationary outcome in an overleveraged financial system is emboldened by the downfall‘s steepness since Monday and ineffective attempts to coutner it on Tuesday. While one swallow doesn‘t make a summer, the technical picture in the hardest hit tech is gradually improving, worthy of benefit of the doubt while you dance close to the Nasdaq exit door.
Credit markets have crucially improved, with the junk corporate bonds leading the way, and value stocks being soundly bought again. All it took was a decent daily stabilization in long-dated Treasuries coupled with an intraday upswing attempt – no issue that it fizzled out before the close, apparently. The markets are coming to terms with higher inflation, and the commodities hit starting with lumber, stretching to copper, and eventually also oil and soybeans yesterday, would likely recover – first those that hadn‘t been all that overheated.
Sunday, May 16, 2021
Wall Street Roiled by Hot Inflation Data: Is This REALLY “Transitory”? / Stock-Markets / Inflation
By: MoneyMetals
The Labor Department reported yesterday that the Consumer Price Index jumped 4.2% from the prior year. Although a big rise in the CPI had been expected, the actual number came in even higher than economists had forecast.
According to the CPI data, inflation in April accelerated at its fastest pace in more than 12 years. Higher prices showed up everything from used cars to lumber to energy to food.
If April’s rate of price increases were to persist for another 11 months, the annual CPI growth rate would be 10.3%. And that wouldn’t even account for items that the CPI excludes or understates.
Jerome Powell and other Federal Reserve officials have repeatedly insisted than any rise in inflation this year will be “transitory.” They cite base effects from last year’s economic lockdown and supply bottlenecks they expect to be temporary.
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Thursday, May 13, 2021
Stock Market Bulls Getting Caught in the Whirlwind / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2021
By: Monica_Kingsley
Seemingly uneventful and tight range day in S&P 500 gave way to extraordinary selling once the 4,220 intraday support broke – extraordinary by recent standards. The bulls obviously have quite some damage to repair before thinking about taking on new highs. Prices have moved back into the prolonged consolidation, in what isn‘t a true breakdown though yet.
Neither the smallcaps, nor the emerging markets, let alone S&P 500 fell on sharply rising volume, which speaks in favor of a bad day, chiefly driven by tech (yes, I‘m looking at you, $NYFANG) and weak credit markets. Look at market breadth – new highs new lows stunningly rose yesterday in spite of the 500-strong index losing quite a few dozen points.
Classic risk off positioning, if only the defensives as a group did a lot better – but it could have been worse had commodities joined in the melee. They didn‘t, and they are thus the dog that didn‘t bark, detracting credibility from yesterday‘s stock market plunge (unless they catch up next, that is).
Both copper and lumber reversed, but won‘t this turn out as another buying opportunity, especially in copper? Little has changed in the reflationary and reopening trades – financials managed to shake off the rising yields easily yesterday. True, VIX and put/call ratio aren‘t painting a picture of calmness, but especially the option traders are positioned a bit too bearishly at the moment. Again, it‘s a question of how long before the tech bottom hunters step in. Make no mistake though, growth is going to keep lagging behind value.
Gold, silver and miners are in a vulnerable position even though neither the technical nor fundamental reasons behind their rally changed. The rising yields are a testament of rotation out of stocks into bonds not having worked yesterday, and should commodities such as copper get hurt again, precious metals would land in hot water likely. Thus far though, no sign thereof – the momentum remains with the bulls overall, and higher time frames confirm that.
Wednesday, May 12, 2021
TESLA! Cathy Wood ARK Funds Bubble BURSTS! / Stock-Markets / Tech Stocks
By: Nadeem_Walayat
The stock market is now entering my forecast window for a significant correction which should present an opportunity to accumulate into most the AI mega-trend stocks many of which have galloped ahead to new all time highs this year, trending in the opposite direction to the much higher risk stocks such as those that heavily populate the media blitzkrieging Cathy Wood's ARK funds i.e. their biggest holding Tesla is down 4.5% year to date whilst AI numero Uno Google is up 32%! Which this analysis seeks to resolve in high probability buying levels in advance of an expected correction during May.
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Wednesday, May 12, 2021
Stock Market Extending Phase Two? / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2021
By: Andre_Gratian
Current Position of the Market
SPX Long-term trend: There is some evidence that we are still in the bull market which started in 2009 and which could continue into the first half of 2021 before major cycles take over and it comes to an end.
SPX Intermediate trend: Phase two from 3853 does not look complete.
Analysis of the short-term trend is done daily with the help of hourly charts. They are important adjuncts to the analysis of daily and weekly charts which determine longer market trends.
Tuesday, May 11, 2021
Stock Market Enters Early Summer Correction Trend Forecast Time Window / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2021
By: Nadeem_Walayat
The stock market is now moving into my forecast time window for a correction to begin of approx 10% decline as illustrated by my trend forecast graph.
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Tuesday, May 11, 2021
Cathy Wood Bubble Bursts as ARK Funds CRASH! Enter into a Severe Bear Market / Stock-Markets / Tech Stocks
By: Nadeem_Walayat
Whilst the Dow has been trading at NEW all time highs, supreme media high risk stocks pumper's ARK funds have entered into a severe bear market as ARK bubble finally bursts. Those invested in ARK funds are in for a more pain over the coming weeks and months as reality catches up with the fantasy valuations that the Cathy brigade had lifted the likes of Tesla to.
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Monday, May 10, 2021
Stock Market Entering Early Summer Correction Trend Forecast / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2021
By: Nadeem_Walayat
The stock market is now moving into my forecast time window for a correction to begin of approx 10% decline as illustrated by my trend forecast graph-
9th Feb 2021 Dow Stock Market Trend Forecast 2021
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Friday, May 07, 2021
Capital Gains Tax Hike News: Was It REALLY to Blame for Sell-off? / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2021
By: EWI
Markets go where they go. The news is just rationalization.
As Elliott Wave International has noted many times, the mainstream financial press always tries to find a reason for a given trading day's stock market action.
In other words, if stocks happen to be up for the day, many financial journalists will say it was because of this or that "positive" news. If stocks happen to be down for the day, you got it, these journalists will ignore the positive news and search for something "negative" that happened in the country or world and say that was the reason stocks went down.
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Friday, May 07, 2021
Stock Market Transportation Index Continues To Grind Higher / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2021
By: Chris_Vermeulen
If the face of last week’s sideways price action and almost in a rebellious manner today (May 4, 2021), the Transportation Index is moving higher while the US major indexes are all broadly lower. VIX has shot up over 20 again (over +13% higher) and the NASDAQ is off by more than 300 points (-2.75%) as I write this article. Yet, the Transportation Index is bucking the trends and trading higher.
What Does It Mean When The Transportation Index Bucks The Major Index Trends?
My team and I have often highlighted the Transportation Index in our past research article. The reason we watch this index so closely is that it tends to lead market trends by at least 30 to 60 days. In short, the Transportation Index is a measure of future expectations related to freight, shipping, transportation, and the movement of goods and commodities across the US and across the globe.
When an economy contracts, the Transportation Index will likely follow major indexes lower as future expectations related to economic activity contract. When a recession or deep price correction happens, the Transportation Index usually moves sharply lower as the sudden shock of an unexpected economic contagion vastly alters future economic expectations. But generally, the Transportation Index tends to front-run economic expectations.
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Friday, May 07, 2021
SPX Stock Market Correction Arriving or Not? / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2021
By: Monica_Kingsley
One more day of upside rejection in S&P 500, in what is now quite a long stretch of prices going mostly sideways. As unsteady as VIX seems at the moment, it doesn‘t flash danger of spiking in this data-light week, and neither does the put/call ratio. As I wrote yesterday about the selling pressure, these tight range days accompanied by 30-ish point corrections is as good as it gets when the Fed still has its foot on the accelerate pedal.
Yes, you can ignore the Kaplan trial baloon (have you checked when he gets to vote on the FOMC?) that spiked the dollar on Friday but didn‘t put all that a solid floor before long-dated Treasuries as seen in their intraday reversal.
Highlighting the key Treasury, inflation and reflation thoughts of yesterday, as these are still here to power stocks higher:
(…) the 10-year yield has been quite well behaved lately, closing at 1.65% only on Friday. The April calm seems to be over, and I‘m looking for the instrument to trade at 1.80% at least at the onset of summer. Then, let‘s see how the September price increases telegraphed by Procter & Gamble influence the offtake – will the price leader be followed by its competitors? That‘s one of the key pieces of the inflation stickiness puzzle – and I think others will follow, and P&G sales and profitability won‘t suffer. The company is on par with Coca Cola when it comes to dividends really.
Wednesday, May 05, 2021
Fed Taper Smoke and Mirrors / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2021
By: Monica_Kingsley
Once in a while, stocks closed in red – is that a reversal or the most the bears could hope for these days? Thursday‘s hanging man got its follow through, yet the bulls staged a rebound into the close. Perhaps that‘s as good as the selling pressure gets, for I think the path of least resistance is still higher in S&P 500.
If you look at the VIX or the put/call ratio, Friday‘s setback is readily apparent, and stocks seem ripe for an upswing now. Fed‘s Kaplan did its job s with the taper talk, yet I think he played the bad cop part – the Fed will really act ostrich in the face of not so transitory inflation, for as long as the Treasuries market doesn‘t throw a tantrum.
And the 10-year yield has been quite well behaved lately, closing at 1.65% only on Friday. The April calm seems to be over, and I‘m looking for the instrument to trade at 1.80% at least at the onset of summer. Then, let‘s see how the September price increases telegraphed by Procter & Gamble influence the offtake – will the price leader be followed by its competitors? That‘s one of the key pieces of the inflation stickiness puzzle – and I think others will follow, and P&G sales and profitability won‘t suffer. The company is on par with Coca Cola when it comes to dividends really.
Once there, we would progress further in the reflation cycle when inflation is no longer benign and anchored. We‘re though still quite a way from when the Fed tries to sell rising rates as proof of strengthening economic recovery – once the bond market would get to doubt this story though, it would be game over for its recent tame behavior.
Friday‘s retreating Treasuries though didn‘t lift gold, and neither helped miners – it‘s not that inflation expectations would be sending a conflicting signal, as these slightly receded too. Inflation at the moment is probably still too low for the complacent market lulled to sleep by the transitory story, but look for that to change.
Tuesday, May 04, 2021
Stock Market SPX Short-term Correction / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2021
By: Andre_Gratian
Current Position of the Market
SPX Long-term trend: There is some evidence that we are still in the bull market which started in 2009 and which could continue into the first half of 2021 before major cycles take over and it comes to an end.
SPX Intermediate trend: SPX has completed the next phase of its intermediate uptrend and should correct.
Analysis of the short-term trend is done daily with the help of hourly charts. They are important adjuncts to the analysis of daily and weekly charts which determine longer market trends.
Tuesday, May 04, 2021
Stock Market Investor Psychology: Here are 2 Rare Traits Now on Display / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2021
By: EWI
Stock market newcomers revel in their ignorance
In the past year, the stock market has been flooded by inexperienced investors.
Here's a May 12, 2020 CNBC headline:
Young investors pile into stocks, seeing 'generational-buying moment' instead of risk
The message of that headline matches up with the sentiment among many investors that the stock market is at the start of a boom -- not near an end.
Yes, financial history shows that the same psychology has been on display before, i.e., the heralding of "The New Economy" in 2000 -- just as stocks were topping. And, if you want to go all the way back to the 1929 top, the proclamation of "A New Era."
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Sunday, May 02, 2021
Stock Market Enough Consolidation Already! / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2021
By: Monica_Kingsley
Stocks are readying another push higher, and not just on the heels of the still accomodative Fed. The Fed won‘t simply remove the punch bowl, let alone discuss removing it, and will keep repeating the transitory inflation mantra ad nauseam. The ingredients are in place for a continued upswing in stocks and commodities.
Look for nominal yields to continue rising, and my hunch is that won‘t be enough to turn the dollar around. We‘re about to experience continuously rising inflation expectations, rising nominal yields, and declining dollar:
(…) When even Larry Summers starts talking the dangers of an inflationary wave, things are really likely getting serious down the road.
(…) we‘re in the decade of precious metals and commodities super bull runs – and these are well underway. The debasement of fiat currencies against real assets is set to continue, and will accelerate given the unprecedented fiscal and monetary support already and ahead – sorry dollar bulls, the greenback declines are resuming – just look at the yen and yields nodding to the metals upswing.
Friday, April 30, 2021
Stock Market Correction Time Window / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2021
By: Nadeem_Walayat
One of the most common questions I am often asked is when to sell ones stocks i.e. after a surge in stock prices there is a tendency to fear the gains will evaporate as followed soon after the March 2020 lows, where many investors are focused on trying to Sell the Tops with a view to Buying the Bottoms. Apparently this is how most investors tend to approach investing as it crops up in many communications I have with investors i.e. when should one sell their holdings with a view to buying back after a market correction, which is especially true at the present time given the recent rally in stocks to new highs that my trend forecast for 2021 suggests is now converging towards a time window for a correction.
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Friday, April 30, 2021
Stock Market "Fastest Jump Since 2007": How Leveraged Investors are Courting "Doom" / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2021
By: EWI
"Our view is that the use of margin to buy stocks is far higher than the NYSE figures indicate"The stock market uptrend has extended for more than 11 years.
Even so, instead of displaying caution, investors have been borrowing to buy stocks like there's no such thing as a bear market.
For example, consider this chart and commentary from the March Elliott Wave Financial Forecast, a monthly publication which provides analysis of major U.S. financial markets:
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Thursday, April 29, 2021
Financial Stocks Sector Appears Ready To Run Higher / Stock-Markets / Banking Stocks
By: Chris_Vermeulen
As we transition into the early Summer months, we are watching how different market sectors are reacting to the continued shifting of capital over the past 60+ days. One this is very clear, certain market sectors are strengthening while others have run into resistance and are consolidating. We believe the next few weeks and months will continue this type of trend where capital continues to shift away from risks and into sectors that show tremendous strength and opportunity.
We wrote about how Precious Metals are likely starting a new bullish price trend on April 18, 2021. You can read that research article here: https://www.thetechnicaltraders.com/metals-miners-may-have-started-a-new-longer-term-bullish-trend-part-ii/.
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Thursday, April 29, 2021
Stock Market Leverage Reaches New All-Time Highs As The Excess Phase Rally Continues / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2021
By: Chris_Vermeulen
A recent Forbes article highlights the incredible increase in market leverage since the start of the COVID-19 crisis. There has never been a time in recent history where market leverage has reached these extreme levels. Additionally, highly leveraged market peaks are typically associated with asset bubbles.
The easy money policies and global central bank actions have prompted one of the longest easy money market rallies in history. Historically low interest rates, US Federal Reserve and global central bank asset-buying programs, and extended overnight credit support have prompted some traders and investors to move into a more highly leveraged position expecting the rally to stay endless. Although, the reality of the global market trends may be starting to cause traders and investors to become a bit unsettled. Precious Metals, Utilities, and Bonds have all started reacting to perceived fear related to this extended bullish rally trend recently.
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Wednesday, April 28, 2021
AI Tech Stocks Lead the Bull Market Charge / Stock-Markets / Tech Stocks
By: Nadeem_Walayat
let's see if the correction materialises so I can buy more stocks after the recent March dip in tech stocks that allowed me to pick up the likes of TSMC for $110, amongst several others on my target list including AMD and Nvidia, though Facebook failed to succumb to mainstream media hysteria instead took off like a rocket to currently stand at well above $300 which whether one likes it or not is precisely what one expects good stocks to do! Even the sleeping giant IBM broke out of it's year long trading range. Whilst Intel despite releasing a pile of garbage 11th Gen rocket lake processors, performing worse than their 10th Gen CPUs! That one would have thought would have resulted in weak hands selling out of their holdings and thus giving us a dip to below $50 to buy some more for the long-run, instead Intel has had a moon shot of its own trading towards 20 year highs! Hardly price action that one would expect from what I consider to be sleeping giants! Which is indicative of what's really going on under the hood that most still fail to grasp which is the exponential nature of the AI mega-trend and of course the rampant money printing inflation mega-trend. That and perhaps there aren't many weak hands left holding IBM and Intel stock.
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Wednesday, April 28, 2021
Stocks Bear Market / Crash Indicator / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2021
By: Nadeem_Walayat
Current Risk Remains VERY LOW at 5%, Recent highest reading was 15%.
This Indicator is one of the neural nets I am working on as my AI takes baby steps into understanding how to interpret the stock market. It's task is to state the current risk of a bear market or crash being imminent i.e. within the next couple of weeks or so. So an independant technical indicator that acts as a warning to HEDGE stock portfolios ahead of further high probability drops in the market. Where my preferred hedging tool is to go short stock index futures so as to capitalise on any drop without selling any stock holdings, and delivering fresh funds to buy more AI stocks at deep discounts just as I did during March 2020. The last time this indicator triggered a warning was late February 2020, so it is NOT a trading indicator but instead advance warning that a correction already underway could turn into something worse so I need to hedge my stocks portfolio to some degree.
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Wednesday, April 28, 2021
No Upsetting the Apple Cart in Stocks or Gold / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2021
By: Monica_Kingsley
The tax hike proposal shock is over, and S&P 500 took again on the ATHs on Friday. Buying pressure throughout the day lasted almost till the closing bell, and is likely to continue this week as well. And why shouldn‘t it – has anything changed? The artificial selling any capital gains tax hike would generate, is likely to come before year end – not now:
(…) Look still though how little has changed, as if the tax raising plans haven‘t been around since the infrastructure bill or implicitly even before. It‘s still April, and markets are pricing in not only this select reality, but broader tax increases coming. Yes, they have woken up, and the reflation paradigm is getting an unwelcome companion. This hit won‘t bring down the bull, but will slow it down – and the implications for broader economy will only hasten the pronounced advent of the commodities supercycle (well underway since the corona deflationary crash last year).
The move towards risk-on was clearly there, overpowering the USD bulls yet again as the dollar bear market has reasserted itself. It‘s not just about EUR/USD on the way to its late Feb highs, but about the USD/JPY too – the yen carry trade is facing headwinds these days, acting as a supportive factor for gold prices. While these went through a daily correction, commodities pretty much didn‘t – lumber is powering to new highs, agrifoods didn‘t have a down day in April, copper and oil scored respectable gains. The market is in a higher inflation environment already, and it will become increasingly apparent that commodity-led inflation is here to stay.
Back to stocks and bonds, the S&P 500 took well to a daily rise in Treasury yields – and that‘s the key factor overall. The turnaround was most clearly seen in tech heavyweights but defensive sectors such as consumer staples or utilities didn‘t do well (they‘re interest rate sensitive, after all), and Dow Jones Industrial Average traded closer to the optimistic side of the spectrum. The second piece of the puzzle came from value stocks and financials, which are working to put an end to their own shallow correction – just as you would expect when rates take a turn higher.
Wednesday, April 28, 2021
SPX Indicators Flashing Stock Market Caution / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2021
By: Andre_Gratian
Current Position of the Market
SPX Long-term trend: There is some evidence that we are still in the bull market which started in 2009 and which could continue into the first half of 2021 before major cycles take over and it comes to an end.
SPX Intermediate trend: SPX has completed the next phase of its intermediate uptrend and should correct.
Analysis of the short-term trend is done daily with the help of hourly charts. They are important adjuncts to the analysis of daily and weekly charts which determine longer market trends.
Monday, April 26, 2021
The Tax Plan to Slay the Stocks Bull Market? / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2021
By: Monica_Kingsley
A day like almost any other – S&P 500 about to take again on the ATHs until the capital gains tax hike proposal came, shaving off 50 points in stocks within an hour. The 4,415 support held though, both before and after the closing bell. Are we ready to shake off the cold water and resume running higher again?
Depends on where you look – stocks have quite some recovering still to do, and it‘s the precious metals and commodities that are performing best today. Both as an index and sectoral collection, the S&P 500 sustained broad damage, concentrated in the tech heavyweights. The volatility spike has been partially repelled but option traders seem expecting another shoe to drop, which attests to us better dampening expectations of a fast return above 4,170.
Look still though how little has changed, as if the tax raising plans haven‘t been around since the infrastructure bill or implicitly even before. It‘s still April, and markets are pricing in not only this select reality, but broader tax increases coming. Yes, they have woken up, and the reflation paradigm is getting an unwelcome companion. This hit won‘t bring down the bull, but will slow it down – and the implications for broader economy will only hasten the pronounced advent of the commodities supercycle (well underway since the corona deflationary crash last year).
As the Chinese say, may you live in interesting times, and I am glad to have caught the April 2020 turnaround reasonably well. I‘m bringing this up just to say that this isn‘t the time to turn bearish on stocks yet – not in the least. The initial panic is over, real economy keeps recovering (amazing how fast were the reasonably good unemployment claims of yesterday forgotten, right?), inflation expectations aren‘t running progressively hotter, and Treasury yields continue retreating.
Monday, April 26, 2021
See What’s Next for European Markets / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2021
By: EWI
Dear reader,
"Will it break above $1?" That’s the question millions of crypto watchers are asking now.
Dogecoin may be on your watch list, too. After all, its 9000%+ rally year-to-date is no longer “funny.” What started as a joke is now very serious.
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Sunday, April 25, 2021
SPX Stock Market Short Squeeze – Here Or Not? / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2021
By: Monica_Kingsley
S&P 500 turned around at the open, and didn‘t look back. Is the selling over, have the markets turned the corner? Buy the dip looks to have won the day, VIX has been beaten back, and corporate credit markets scored strong gains. The benefit of the doubt would go with the bulls as the Russell 2000 and emerging markets joined in the buying spree. Heck, even the option traders turned more complacent again.
The table looks set for brighter days, but it‘s the odd performance in value (the reopening fireworks don‘t seem to go stale ever really) ignoring retreating yields, which the tech heavyweights strangely neither rejoiced. That reminds me of the dog that didn‘t bark story. I‘m thus looking for a daily consolidation of surprisingly easily gained ground without ruling out a weak downswing attempt – but it‘s the upside potential that‘s looking short-term limited here. The daily SPX chart doesn‘t give me confidence yet to declare this correction as not returning next week.
Nominal yields have again retreated a little, and inflation expectations are sending inconclusive messages – but don‘t forget that inflation is what the Fed ultimately wants. It just has to balance that with the Treasuries market not going into a tailspin – for now, mission accomplished, inflation expectations have peaked, move along, nothing to see here.
But the higher commodity prices are sending a clear message to the contrary – look for the PPI readings to be affecting CPI increasingly more. Markets aren‘t waiting for the Fed, and have been transitioning to a higher inflation environment already, even though the Fed sold the transitory talking points quite well – it would indeed be a 2022-3 story when inflation supported by the overheating job market would kick in. That‘s the context decreasing nominal yields should be interpreted in.
Sunday, April 25, 2021
Fiscal Guilt: What a Shift in Monetary Policy Portends for Investors / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2021
By: The_Gold_Report
Sector expert Michael Ballanger describes how he is protecting his portfolio as political and financial fortunes begin to change.
To you from failing hands we throw
The torch; be yours to hold it high.
—from the poem "In Flanders Field;" 1915
I have a confession to make: I am reaching the end of my personal level of nonviolent tolerance when being forced to listen to non-elected "authorities" standing in front of TV cameras reading their "prepared notes" from teleprompters without the vaguest clue as to what they are talking about.
Worse still are the elected "representatives of the citizenry" of any country, state or province, standing in that very same spot ordering the populace to "stay indoors" while warning that the police have been instructed to issue citations (or arrest) those in violation of an order that has never been enacted into law.
Whether they are politicians or bankers or bureaucratic buffoons of questionable agenda, all of them should be gagged and bound and carted off to a facility of incarceration with zero chance of release back into the "general population." They all represent an ever-increasing threat to not only my sanity but also, and more importantly, to my personal liberty.
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Friday, April 23, 2021
This "Lopsided" Stock Market Ratio Is Sending a Clear Signal / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2021
By: EWI
Investors always find ways to "rationalize" bearish or bullish stances
For a stock market investor who understands that markets are not random or chaotic but instead patterned, the most important information to know is the price pattern of the market in question.
For an Elliott wave investor, the task is even more defined. As Frost & Prechter's Wall Street classic book, Elliott Wave Principle, says:
The market's progression unfolds in waves. Waves are patterns of directional movement.
So, familiarity with the Elliott wave model for forecasting financial markets is a must.
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Friday, April 23, 2021
Stock Market Sentiment Speaks: Watch Out For The “Bear Market” / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2021
By: Avi_Gilburt
Throughout the years I have been writing on Seeking Alpha, many readers have recognized that we have been quite accurate in our market prognostications, yet they have had a hard time understanding the lens through which I view the markets.
I want to first start by stating that in all the years I have been doing research and analysis into financial markets, I have not found a single form of analysis that provides market context as does Elliott Wave analysis. In fact, it was the reason I was so confident in my expectation that the market would exceed the 4000SPX region even though we were down in the 2200SPX region last year.
So, before I move into my discussion of a “bear market,” I wanted to take a moment to again reference the six-part series I wrote, which explains not only the application of my analysis methodology, but also provides you with the background and theory behind the methodology: https://www.elliottwavetrader.net/market-update/Elliott-Wave-Series-Part-1-201808184848063.html
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Thursday, April 22, 2021
Dow Stock Market Dow Trend Forecast Current State / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2021
By: Nadeem_Walayat
My trend forecast for 2021 as of the 8th of Feb analysis Dow Stock Market Trend Forecast 2021 is for a bull run to Dow 35k punctuated by a summer correction beginning early May as illustrated by the forecast graph for a gain of about 15% on the year.
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Tuesday, April 20, 2021
Stock Market Sentiment Speaks: You May Not Believe My 2021 Targets / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2021
By: Avi_Gilburt
Ever since the market crash in February and March of 2020, so many investors, authors and analysts have been on high alert for the next shoe to drop.
In fact, I can no longer count how many articles (along with comments) I have read which have called this market one name or another, while looking for the next crash. While such descriptive name calling included a “bubble,” or “topping,” or having gone “too far too fast,” or “not supported by the fundamentals,” or having an “overly heated PE ratio,” it is clear that this rally has taken many by surprise, and many still do not believe in its ability to continue on further.
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Tuesday, April 20, 2021
Stock Market Phase Two Projection / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2021
By: Andre_Gratian
Current Position of the Market
SPX Long-term trend: There is some evidence that we are still in the bull market which started in 2009 and which could continue into the first half of 2021 before major cycles take over and it comes to an end.
SPX Intermediate trend: SPX has completed the next phase of its intermediate uptrend and should correct.
Analysis of the short-term trend is done daily with the help of hourly charts. They are important adjuncts to the analysis of daily and weekly charts which determine longer market trends.
Monday, April 19, 2021
8 Stock Market Indicators in 1: Here's the Message of the Panic/Euphoria Model / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2021
By: EWI
Prior model extremes occurred in March 2000 and October 2007
Elliott Wave International has been providing market analysis for more than four decades -- which includes many bull/bear market cycles.
That said, the public's current market mindset -- especially among inexperienced investors -- is a reminder of the extremes surrounding the 2000 market top, and a few others.
For example, a February 27 MarketWatch headline said:
A new wave of fearless retail investors is ready to pour $170 billion into stocks ...
Also, according to an early February Deutsche Bank survey of online brokerage users, 61% are under 34 years of age and 45% are in their first year of investing.
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Sunday, April 18, 2021
State of the European Markets - DAX, FTSE, CAC, AEX, SMI, IBEX 35, S&P/MIB, Euro Stoxx 50, RTS / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2021
By: EWI
Dear reader,
In many ways, over the past year Europe had it tougher than the rest.
And now, with the slow vaccine roll-out and calls for new lockdowns, things look shaky.
Despite all that, European stocks have powered on. The DAX even hit a record high!
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Saturday, April 17, 2021
Stocks and Bonds Inflationary Slingshot / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2021
By: Gary_Tanashian
Cost-push inflation could break out (and a note on gold)
Before beginning the post a little context is in order. We (NFTRH) anticipated the current pause in long-term Treasury yields (one indicator of inflation) because pro-inflation sentiment became over-done in March and was due for a cool down; so said a contrarian view. This post discussing the likelihood of more inflation to come is not written by a one-way bias booster. It’s important for credibility to make these distinctions from the herds running with the daily news cycle.
The short-term contrary sentiment situation against the inflation view began with the Bond King’s media-touted short of long-term Treasuries (i.e. expectation of higher yields), per one of our best macro tools…
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Friday, April 16, 2021
US Stocks Climb A “Wall Of Worry” To New Highs / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2021
By: Chris_Vermeulen
Low volume rallies have become a standard of trending recently. We see higher volume when volatility kicks in near areas of broad market volatility. Otherwise, we see lower volume trending push the prices higher recently in a “melt-up” type of mode.
Two recent standout events confirm this type of trending and volatility phases of the markets: (1) the September 2020 to early November 2020 (pre-US Election) rotation in price; and (2) the recent February 2021 to late March 2021 sideways price rotation related to the FOMC meeting/comments. Both of these events centered around external market components and prompted an extended period of price volatility related to uncertainty. After these events passed, price fell back into a low volume rally mode for many months, where most of the actual price gains happened.
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Friday, April 16, 2021
See what Anatomy of a Bursting Market Bubble looks like / Stock-Markets / Liquidity Bubble
By: EWI
Those who are familiar with the Elliott wave model for analyzing and forecasting financial markets know that a main trend takes the form of five waves.
Thus, when the fifth wave is complete, a trend in the opposite direction is set to begin.
Another insight into the Wave Principle that's relevant to the present discussion is that corrections often end at the terminus of the previous fourth wave of one lesser degree of trend.
If that sounds like a mouthful, hold on, you're about to see a market example that'll make it plain as day.
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Friday, April 16, 2021
Many Stock Market Sectors Are Primed For Another Breakout Rally – Are You? / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2021
By: Chris_Vermeulen
As we start moving into the Q1:2021 earnings season, we need to be aware of the risks associated with the volatility often associated with earnings data and unknowns. Nonetheless, there are other factors that appear to be present in current trends which suggest earnings may prompt a moderately strong upside breakout rally – again.
One key factor is that the US markets are already starting to price in forwarding expectations related to a reflation economy – a post-COVID acceleration in activity, consumer participation, and manufacturing. Secondarily, we must also consider the continued stimulus efforts, easy monetary policy from the US Fed, and the continued trending related to the 12+ month long COVID-19 recovery rally.
In some ways, any damage to the economy related to COVID-19 may have already happened well over 6+ months ago. Certainly, there are other issues we are still dealing with and recovering from, but the strength of the US economy since May/June of 2020 has been incredible. When we combine the strength of the economic recovery with the extended support provided by the US Fed and US government stimulus/policy efforts, we are left with only one conclusion: the markets will likely continue to rally until something stops this trend.
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Friday, April 16, 2021
Still a Bullish Fever in Stocks? / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2021
By: Monica_Kingsley
S&P 500 went nowhere yesterday – just like the prior Monday, heavy buying into Friday‘s close met no follow-up the day after. After almost touching 16 to close the week, VIX peeked higher yesterday only to reverse back down. Nice try but if you look at the put/call ratio turning down simulatenously, the alarm bells are far from ringing.
The S&P 500 rise of late isn‘t without its good share of non-confirmations though. The ones seen in Russell 2000 and emerging markets got a fresh company in the corporate credit markets. No denying that the stock market is in a strong uptrend, but it got a bit too stretched vs. its 50-day moving average – a consolidation in short order would be a healthy move, but the CPI readings above expectations don‘t favor one today.
If you look at the put/call ratio again, its lows throughout Mar and Apr haven‘t been reaching the really exuberant levels of prior months, hinting at a less steep path of S&P 500 gains. And what about the volume print as stocks went about making new highs? Not encouraging either, and it‘s not that rising yields would be causing trouble:
Thursday, April 15, 2021
Stocks or Gold – Which Is in the Catbird Seat? / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2021
By: Monica_Kingsley
S&P 500 spurted higher after prior days of tiny gains. Still lining up the upper border of the Bollinger Bands on the daily chart, stocks keep defying gravity. But the corporate credit markets are sending a gentle warning sign as they failed to move higher in unison on Friday.
Given the Fed support and liquidity injections talked on Friday:
(…) the Powell bid is in, affecting „traditional“ sectoral dynamics of rotation. Value is probably about to feel the heat if you look at the very long lower knot in financials (XLF ETF) yesterday. Yes, this interest rate sensitive sector still rose in the face of long-dated Treasuries‘ gains. Needless to say, technology loved that, and its heavyweights ($NYFANG) keep driving the sector up. It looks to be a question of time before Tesla (TSLA) joins – Square (SQ) already did.
The spanner in the works proved to be long-dated Treasuries as these gave up all intraday gains, and closed in a non-bullish fashion. The retreat in rising yields is running into headwinds, much sooner than the 10-year one could reach the low 1.50% figure at least. Value stocks and cyclicals such as financials appear calling it out, and both rose on Friday – and so did industrials and technology, all without tech heavyweights‘ help. Utilities and consumer staples went mostly sideways, disregarding the danger of yields about to rise again.
Thursday, April 15, 2021
Time For A Stock Market Melt-Up / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2021
By: Avi_Gilburt
While I cannot tell you with certainty that we are about to see a market melt-up, I can tell you that the setup is now in place to melt up to the 4400SPX region through the spring.
Before I go into my expectations, there are a few issues I would like to address, which seem to almost always come up in the comments section to my articles.
Many of you have taken strong exception to the fact that I really do not bother with the news. Your perspectives are often based upon your personal experience of seeing the markets move when news is announced. So, you assume that the substance of the news is always the driver of the market move. And, this makes you view my perspective as quite untenable.
So, allow me to explain my perspective in a bit more detail, and maybe you will begin to understand.
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Thursday, April 15, 2021
Stocks Bull Market Progression Now Shows Base Metal Strength / Stock-Markets / Metals & Mining
By: Donald_W_Dony
Sector performance within the present bull market has largely replicated an historical pattern. Over the past 12 years, the rise and eventual outperformance over the benchmark indexes (i.e. TSX and S&P 500), of specific industry groups has developed starting with technology and consumer discretionary sectors in 2009 and carrying through to the current sector of base metals.
The normal progression of performance in industry groups, beginning with a bear market low, through a gradual recovery and into a full bull market and then with a final cresting high, is illustrated in Chart 1.
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Wednesday, April 14, 2021
The SPY Is Nearing Resistance @ $410… What Is Next? / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2021
By: Chris_Vermeulen
My shorter-term analysis for the markets continues to stay Bullish and suggests the US reflation trade, the strengthening of the US and the global economy, and recovery from the COVID-19 restrictions will likely prompt a moderately strong upside price trend leading into at least mid Q2:2021. The recent strength of the US Dollar is helping to push capital into the US markets as foreign investors attempt to shift capital away from Emerging Market and currency weakness and the Treasury Yield rallies seem to have indicated a moderate warning related to global central banks attempting to front-run inflation concerns.
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Wednesday, April 14, 2021
The Curious Stock Market Staircase Rally / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2021
By: Monica_Kingsley
Another day of tiny S&P 500 gains defying gravity, boosted by overnight price action. Well, liquidity overpowering junk corporate bonds opening with a bullish gap only to partially close it. With some credit market hints at deterioration present, the yen carry trade is getting a new lease on life today, and that‘s generally bullish for risk-on assets such as stocks – but not really for precious metals.
With all the Fed support, the Powell bid is in, affecting „traditional“ sectoral dynamics of rotation. Value is probably about to feel the heat if you look at the very long lower knot in financials (XLF ETF) yesterday. Yes, this interest rate sensitive sector still rose in the face of long-dated Treasuries‘ gains. Needless to say, technology loved that, and its heavyweights ($NYFANG) keep driving the sector up. It looks to be a question of time before Tesla (TSLA) joins – Square (SQ) already did.
The key question is the rotation‘s degree – now that the yields appear ready to retreat still a little more (the 10-year yield appears targeting the low 1.50% figure if not declining further), which is what technology anticipates even though utilities and consumer staples have been dragging their feet a little lately. But value stocks aren‘t selling off in the least (yet?). Is the TINA still strongly in effect when those stock market segments that could have been expected under more stringent monetary policy to be sold, aren‘t no more? Rising tide lifting really all boats – in stocks.
Wednesday, April 14, 2021
Stocks are Heating Up / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2021
By: Paul_Rejczak
In keeping with its historical performance, April has started off white-hot. We ended March, and Q1 for that matter, with more questions than answers.
But April 2021 started with a blowout jobs report, and the indices haven't looked back since. Right now, the S&P 500 is at yet another record, the Dow is just about at a record, and we've seen a furious comeback for Big Tech and growth stocks.
The sentiment is certainly better now than it was just a couple of weeks ago. However, I implore you to remember that every month in 2021 thus far has started off hot and saw a pullback/volatility occur in the second half of the month.
Think about it. In January, we had the GameStop trade spooking investors. In February and March, we had surging bond yields, inflation fears, or Jay Powell comments that rubbed people the wrong way. These concerns won't just disappear because we want them to. If we could make things magically disappear, COVID would've been over yesterday.
Tuesday, April 13, 2021
Stock Market Minor Correction Due / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2021
By: Andre_Gratian
Current Position of the Market
SPX Long-term trend: There is some evidence that we are still in the bull market which started in 2009 and which could continue into the first half of 2021 before major cycles take over and it comes to an end.
SPX Intermediate trend: SPX is in the next phase of its intermediate uptrend.
Analysis of the short-term trend is done daily with the help of hourly charts. They are important adjuncts to the analysis of daily and weekly charts which determine longer market trends.
Daily market analysis of the short-term trend is reserved for subscribers. If you would like to sign up for a FREE 2-week trial period of daily comments, please let me know at anvi1962@cableone.net
Monday, April 12, 2021
Why These Stock Market Indicators Should Grab Your Full Attention / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2021
By: EWI
The McClellan Summation Index has been "in a clearly defined downtrend since late December"
Many Main Street investors only pay attention to the daily trading closes of the main stock indexes.
But those who fall in that camp are missing out on a lot of valuable insights regarding the strength or weakness of a trend. In other words, when it comes to the stock market, it pays to "look under the hood."
For example, on Friday (March 26), all three major indexes rallied with the S&P 500 climbing 1.7% to hit a record closing high. Those who glance at the stock market headlines may have concluded "all systems go."
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Friday, April 09, 2021
Stock Market On the Verge of a Pullback / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2021
By: Monica_Kingsley
S&P 500 is still consolidating Monday‘s sharp gains, showered with liquidity. Yet it seems that eking out further gains is getting harder as the price action took the index quite far from its key moving averages. If I had to pick one sign of stiffer headwinds ahead, it would be the tech sector‘s reaction to another daily retreat in Treasury yields – the sector didn‘t rally, and neither did the Dow Jones Industrial Average. Value stocks saved the day, and it appears we‘re about to see them start doing better again, relatively speaking.
Yes, the risk-reward ratio for the bulls is at unsavory levels in the short run. What about being short at this moment then? It all depends upon the trading style, risk tolerance and time horizon. I‘m not looking for stocks making a major top here as the bull run is intact thanks to:
(..) Well, liquidity and bets on the stocks benefiting from the coming infrastructure bill.
Any way you look at it, the market breadth is positive and ready to support the coming upswing continuation, even though I look for a largely sideways day in stocks on Tuesday given the aptly called fireworks to happen yesterday. Sizable long profits in stock market trades #6 and #7 have been taken off the table – 149 points in my Standard money managements, and 145 points in the Advanced money management that comes on top.
My prognosis for yesterday‘s session materialized, and we have seen quite a record number (around 95%) of stocks trading above their 200-day moving averages, which is similar to the setup right after the post-dotcom bubble bear market 2002/3 lows, or 1-2 years after the bull market run off the Mar 2009 lows. Hard to say which one is more hated, but I see the run from Mar 2020 generational low as the gold medal winner, especially given the denial accompanying it since.
Friday, April 09, 2021
Most Money Managers Gamble With Your Money / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2021
By: Avi_Gilburt
I really wonder how many of you that read this article entrust your hard-earned money to money managers? My next question is, of those that do, how many of you really understand your money managers' approach to managing money? And, my last question is if you believe that your money managers' goals are not aligned with yours?
Since the first question I asked at the start of this article is more rhetorical in nature, as I simply cannot answer it, I will move to the second question.
Of late, I have been reading articles published by money managers and I have honestly scratched my head. In fact, if you have been reading articles by them over the last 12 months, you would likely be scratching your head as well.
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Thursday, April 08, 2021
Dow Stock Market Trend Forecast 2021 - Crash or Continuing Bull Run? / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2021
By: Nadeem_Walayat
This video presents the final forecast conclusion in a detailed stock market trend forecast for 2021 , extensive analysis of which was first been made available to Patrons who support my work.
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Thursday, April 08, 2021
Don’t Be Fooled by the Stock Market Rally / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2021
By: MoneyMetals
Markets tend to move in cycles. They typically experience cyclical pullbacks after trending higher for a long period of time. Rarely do markets move straight up or straight down.
The stock market has, however, essentially moved straight up since the March 2020 mini-crash. As the market moves higher, an increasing number of “analysts” are calling for even higher equity prices.
Just last week, in fact, an analyst called for the broad market S&P 500 index to double by 2030.
Calls for an 8000 S&P do not seem quite as farfetched as they did just a year ago. That is the power of greed (and wishful thinking) at work.
Thursday, April 08, 2021
Stock Market New S&P 500 Highs or Metals Rising? / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2021
By: Monica_Kingsley
Bullish run in stocks is on, driven by tech gains and value not yielding an inch. A rare constellation given the the long-dated Treasuries performance especially – as if the narratives were flipped, and value „could“ move up on rising yields. Well, liquidity and bets on the stocks benefiting from the coming infrastructure bill.
Any way you look at it, the market breadth is positive and ready to support the coming upswing continuation, even though I look for a largely sideways day in stocks on Tuesday given the aptly called fireworks to happen yesterday. Sizable long profits in stock market trades #6 and #7 have been taken off the table – 149 points in my Standard money managements, and 145 points in the Advanced money management that comes on top.
Both the VIX and put/call ratio are at extended levels – the first below 18 (formerly unimaginable to stock market non-bulls), the second approaching local lows again. As I have written yesterday:
(…) Throughout the markets, risk-on has been making a return as long-dated Treasury yields retreated, dollar fell and commodities continue their bullish flag formation. As I have tweeted on Thursday, it were the investment grade corporate bonds that signalled the turnaround in yields spreading to TLT next. Given such a constellation, the dollar‘s appeal is taking a dive as the bond market gets its reprieve. When nominal yields retreat while inflation (and inflation expectations) keep rising, real rates decline, and that leads to dollar‘s decline.
Wednesday, April 07, 2021
S&P 500 Fireworks and Gold Going Stronger / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2021
By: Monica_Kingsley
Bullish run in stocks is on, driven by tech gains and value swinging higher as well. Throughout the markets, risk-on has been making a return as long-dated Treasury yields retreated, dollar fell and commodities continue their bullish flag formation. As I have tweeted on Thursday, it were the investment grade corporate bonds that signalled the turnaround in yields spreading to TLT next. Given such a constellation, the dollar‘s appeal is taking a dive as the bond market gets its reprieve. When nominal yields retreat while inflation (and inflation expectations) keep rising, real rates decline, and that leads to dollar‘s decline.
Stocks are more focused on the tidal wave of liquidity rather than the tax increases that follow behind. So far, it‘s still reflation – tame inflation expectations given the avalanche of fresh money, real economy slowly but surely heating up (non-farm payrolls beat expectations on Friday), and not about the long-term consequences of tax hikes:
(…) Reduction in economic activity, unproductive moves to outset the effects, decrease in potential GDP? Remember the time proven truth that whatever the percentage rate, the government always takes in less than 20% GDP in taxes. The only question is the degree of distortions that the tax rate spawns.
And as the falling yields were embraced by tech with open arms, the sector‘s leadership in the S&P 500 upswing is back. As you‘ll see further on, the market breadth isn‘t pitiful either – slight non-confirmation yes, but I am looking for it to be gradually resolved with yet another price upswing, and that means more open profits (that‘s 7 winning stock market 2021 trades in a row).
Tuesday, April 06, 2021
Which ETFs Will Benefit As A Stronger US Dollar Reacts To Global Market Concerns / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2021
By: Chris_Vermeulen
The recent news of Hedge Fund and other institutional crisis events has opened many eyes as investors and traders realize the post-2008-09 global market credit bubble has extended well beyond what many people may realize. Recent news that China offered a “deferment” for Chinese corporations and state-run enterprises content with shadow banking credit/debt issues at a time when China is tightening monetary policy shows that a process, like the 2008 Lehman incident, may be setting up where institutional level credit/debt liabilities ripple through the global markets as global central banks attempt to reign in monetary policies.
This process is not likely to happen suddenly though. If this type of contraction in global monetary policy takes place, resulting in increased pressures to contain excessive credit/debt functions in the markets, then we believe the process may result in an extended 9 to 16+ months of “hit-and-miss” events leading up to a potentially bigger event. The Archegos Fund forced unwinding of trades hit the markets recently as a wake-up call. Prior to the Archegos event, the Greensill Capital collapse shocked the global markets because of the size and scope of this failure. Now, we see Credit Suisse issuing warnings that Q1 earnings may have taken a big hit because of exposure to the Greensill and Archegos assets – which is leading to Credit Suisse attempting to put the Gupta Trading Unit into insolvency.
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Tuesday, April 06, 2021
Stock Market Pushing Higher / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2021
By: Andre_Gratian
Current Position of the Market
SPX Long-term trend: There is some evidence that we are still in the bull market which started in 2009 and which could continue into the first half of 2021 before major cycles take over and it comes to an end.
SPX Intermediate trend: SPX is starting on the next phase of its intermediate uptrend.
Analysis of the short-term trend is done daily with the help of hourly charts. They are important adjuncts to the analysis of daily and weekly charts which determine longer market trends.
Monday, April 05, 2021
Stocks All Time Highs and Gold Double Bottom / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2021
By: Monica_Kingsley
Bullish run in stocks that lost steam before the close – does that qualify as a reversal? Given the other moves such as in the Dow Industrials, Russell 2000 and emerging markets, it‘s unlikely that the S&P 500 met more than a temporary setback. Just look at the rush into risk-on assets as an immediate reaction to the infrastructure and taxation plans – see the high yield corporate bonds moving higher (and this time also investment grade corporate bonds finally) as long-dated Treasuries keep losing ground, and the dollar noticeably wavered.
Yes, emerging worries about how this will be all paid for – not that an ideological challenge to modern monetary theory would be gaining any traction, but rather what would be the (quite predictable) effect of steep tax increases? Reduction in economic activity, unproductive moves to outset the effects, decrease in potential GDP? Remember the time proven truth that whatever the percentage rate, the government always takes in less than 20% GDP in taxes. The only question is the degree of distortions that the tax rate spawns.
Sunday, April 04, 2021
Penny Stocks Hit $2 Trillion - The Real Story Behind This "Road to Riches" Scheme / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2021
By: EWI
By Steven Hochberg : Penny stocks are an investment vehicle that really has garnered the attention and speculation of investors in early 2021. They're plunging headlong into off-exchange shares.
I remember back when I started in the early 1980s at Merrill Lynch, there was a guy that walked in the office and he had pieces of paper that were pink, and I didn't know what they were.
I was 23 years old, just starting out. I went over to him and said, "What are you looking at?" And he turned to me and he said, "Son, this is your road to riches right here." And then he was looking at the OTC bulletin board pink sheets of these off-penny stocks.
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Sunday, April 04, 2021
Should Stock Markets Fear Inflation or Deflation? / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2021
By: EWI
How about both.
You can't go ten minutes on financial media these days without coming across a reference to inflation. That is, consumer price inflation to be more exact -- the measurement of changes in the prices of consumer goods and services that the entire world has been hoodwinked by central banks into thinking is the definition of inflation. The proper definition of inflation is the expansion of money and credit in an economy. On that definition, most major economies have been experiencing high inflation for decades.
Sigh, nevertheless, the focus for the markets at this moment is on a potential rise in consumer price inflation. The general underlying narrative from conventional analysts is that this is a good thing for markets because it is preferable to consumer price deflation. But is it?
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Saturday, April 03, 2021
Dow Stock Market Trend Forecast 2021 / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2021
By: Nadeem_Walayat
Stocks Bear Market / Crash Indicator (CI18) - Current Risk is VERY LOW. The Crash Indicator is one of the neural nets I am working on as my AI takes baby steps into understanding how to interpret the stock market. It's task is to state the current risk of a bear market or crash being imminent i.e. within the next week or so. So an independant indicator that acts as a warning to HEDGE stock portfolios ahead of a high probability declines in the market. Where my preferred hedging tool is to go short stock index futures so as to capitalise on any drop delivering fresh funds to buy more AI stocks at deep discounts just as I did during March 2020. The last time this indicator triggered a warning was late February, so it is not a trading indicator but instead a Hedge your portfolio warning indicator.
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Saturday, April 03, 2021
Stocks, Gold and the Troubling Yields / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2021
By: Monica_Kingsley
Yesterday‘s consolidation in stocks was a bullish one, and the S&P 500 upswing has good prospects of proceeding unimpeded. Strange but true if you consider that also a plan to considerably raise taxes would be announced today, so as to help pay for the stimulus wave. The bond markets are calmly overlooking that so far, enabling the run to the 4,000 mark.
And it still appears a question of time. Inflation isn‘t yet biting (forget about the German CPI data for now), fresh money keeps hitting the markets, and Archegos is about to become a distant memory. Stocks seem immune to the rising yields spell at the moment, meaning that value trades can remain at elevated levels while technology is stuck in no man‘s land and defensives are consolidating recent sharp gains (consolidating until the rising yields come back with vengeance).
And there is little reason given the Fed‘s stance why they shouldn‘t. Much of the marketplace is buying into the transitory inflation story, and inflation expectations aren‘t yet running too hot. As the economic growth is stronger than current or future inflation, we‘re still at a good stage in the inflation cycle – everyone benefits and no one pays.
Friday, April 02, 2021
Markets, Mayhem and Elliott Waves / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2021
By: EWI
Dear reader,
We are one year into the bull market that began in March 2020 -- and 12 years into the bigger bull market than began in early 2009.
You are probably getting anxious -- what's next for stocks, interest rates, gold and other commodities?
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Friday, April 02, 2021
Stock Market Support Near $14,358 On Transportation Index Suggests Rally Will Continue / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2021
By: Chris_Vermeulen
An interesting Fibonacci Measured Move pattern has set up in the Transportation Index (TRAN) recently. The Transportation Index is an important component of the future US economic expectations. As the Transportation Index rises, one could assume greater economic activity is expected in the near-term 3 to 6+ future months. As the Transportation Index declines, one could assume weaker economic activity is expected in the near-term 3 to 6+ future months. My research team and I watch the TRAN as a type of confirming indicator for US major index and sector trends. When we see the TRAN rising sharply, we can often assume various US sector trends will also move higher.
The Transportation Index Daily chart below shows two key elements we find interesting. The first RED price range on this chart represents a 100% Fibonacci Measured Price move from the early November 2020 bottom to the mid-January 2021 peak. If we extend that same range to the early February lows, we see a major support level exists near $14,358 (a full 100% Fibonacci Measured Price move). The TRAN price has recently broken above this level and we believe this support level will likely hold and prompt another moderate rally attempt above $14,750.
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Thursday, April 01, 2021
How To Spot Market Boom and Bust Cycles / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2021
By: Chris_Vermeulen
One of the most important aspects of trading is being able to properly identify major market cycles and trends. The markets will typically move between four separate stages: Bottoming/Basing, Rallying, Topping/Distribution, and Bearish Trending. Each of these phases of market trends is often associated with various degrees of market segment trending as well. For example, one of the most telling phrases of when the stock market is nearing an eventual Topping/Distribution phase is when the housing market gets super-heated. Yet, one of the most difficult aspects of this Excess Phase rally trend is that it can last many months or years, and usually longer than many people expect.
Until Gold Really Starts To Rally, Expect A Continued Rally In The Stock Market
When an Excess Phase rally is taking place in the stock market, we expect to see the Lumber vs. Gold ratio moving higher and typically see the RSI indicator stay above 50. Demand for lumber, a commodity necessary for building, remodeling, and other consumer essential spending, translates well as an economic barometer for big-ticket consumer spending. Extreme peaks in this ratio can often warn of a pending shift in consumer spending and how the stock market reacts to an Excess Phase Peak. Let’s take a look at some of the historical reference points on this longer-term Weekly Lumber vs. Gold chart below.
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Thursday, April 01, 2021
What Could Slay the Stock & Gold Bulls / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2021
By: Monica_Kingsley
Put/call ratio didn‘t lie, and the anticipated S&P 500 upswing came on Friday – fireworks till the closing bell. Starting on Thursday, with the rising yields dynamic sending value stocks higher – and this time technology didn‘t stand in the way. What an understatement given the strong Friday sectoral showing, acocmpanied by the defensives swinging higher as well. And that‘s the characterization of the stock market rise – it‘s led by the defensive sectors with value stocks coming in close second now.
Still last week, the market confirmed my early Friday‘s take:
(…) While it‘s far from full steam ahead, it‘s a welcome sight that the reflation trade dynamic has returned, and that technology isn‘t standing in the way. I think we‘re on the doorstep of another upswing establishing itself, which would be apparent latest Monday. Credit markets support such a conclusion, and so does the premarket turn higher in commodities – yes, I am referring also to yesterday‘s renewed uptick in inflation expectation.
Neither running out of control, nor declaring the inflation scare (as some might term it but not me, for I view the markets as transitioning to a higher inflation environment) as over, inflation isn‘t yet strong enough to break the bull run, where both stocks and commodities benefit. It isn‘t yet forcing the Fed‘s hand enough, but look for it to change – we got a slight preview in the recent emergency support withdrawal and taper entertainment talking points, however distant from today‘s situation.
Thursday, April 01, 2021
Fed: “We’re Not Going to Take This Punchbowl Away” / Stock-Markets / Quantitative Easing
By: MoneyMetals
Precious metals markets are struggling against the headwind of a rising U.S. dollar this week.
The dollar index broke out to a four-month high on Thursday. Neither a much-awaited fall in bond yields nor dovish remarks from Federal Reserve officials dissuaded currency traders from buying Greenbacks and selling other fiat currencies.
Commodities and precious metals markets also saw some selling.
Despite choppy trading in metals markets so far in 2021, intense demand for coins, bars, and rounds continues to strain supply chains in the bullion market. Some mints and dealers are simply unable to deliver product to their customers in a timely manner.
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Tuesday, March 30, 2021
Stock Market Bullish Trend Continues / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2021
By: Andre_Gratian
Current Position of the Market
SPX Long-term trend: There is some evidence that we are still in the bull market which started in 2009 and which could continue into the first half of 2021 before major cycles take over and it comes to an end.
SPX Intermediate trend: SPX is starting on the next phase of its intermediate uptrend.
Analysis of the short-term trend is done daily with the help of hourly charts. They are important adjuncts to the analysis of daily and weekly charts which determine longer market trends.
Monday, March 29, 2021
Stocks Bear Market / Crash Indicator (CI18) / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2021
By: Nadeem_Walayat
Current Risk is VERY LOW. The Crash Indicator is one of the neural nets I am working on as my AI takes baby steps into understanding how to interpret the stock market. It's task is to state the current risk of a bear market or crash being imminent i.e. within the next week or so. So an independant indicator that acts as a warning to HEDGE stock portfolios ahead of a high probability declines in the market. Where my preferred hedging tool is to go short stock index futures so as to capitalise on any drop delivering fresh funds to buy more AI stocks at deep discounts just as I did during March 2020. The last time this indicator triggered a warning was late February, so it is not a trading indicator but instead a Hedge your portfolio warning indicator.
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Monday, March 29, 2021
Stock Market Risk-off Is Back Again / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2021
By: Monica_Kingsley
Stocks reversed yesterday, and the close below 3,900 indicates short-term weakness instead of muddling through in a tight range. Especially the sectoral reaction to still retreating yields, is worrying. Yesterday‘s session means a reality check for prior reasonable expectations:
(…) The index is likely to advance, but the engine is going to be tech this time – not value stocks. I view this as a deceptive, fake strength in the bull market leadership passing over to value inevitably next. That‘s why I expect the S&P 500 advance to unfold still, a bit rockier than it could have been otherwise.
Tech faltered yesterday, and neither the other sectors were convincing. Rotation within stocks didn‘t work yesterday or the day before, and that‘s short-term concerning for the stock market bull health – as in, the path ahead would be truly rockier, and accompanied by brief, sharp selloffs such as the one bringing S&P 500 futures to 3,865 moments ago. The bull market isn‘t though over by a long shot – all we‘re going through is a recalibration of the rising inflation – I still stand by my year end call for $SPX at 4200.
It‘s commodities that are under the greatest pressure now, and the copper and oil signals doesn‘t bode well for the immediate future. These are likely starting consolidation of post-Nov 2020 sharp gains – they are no longer frontrunning inflation expectations. This has also consequences for silver, which is more vulnerable here than the yellow metal now.
Sunday, March 28, 2021
How to Stop Being Scared or Shaken Out Of Winning Trades / Stock-Markets / Stock Index Trading
By: Chris_Vermeulen
The markets really frightened a lot of people in the last month. We’ve received lots of emails and comments from people wondering what’s happening in the markets and why the deeper downtrend didn’t prompt new trade triggers. Well, the quick answer is “this downtrend did prompt new BAN trade triggers and this pullback is still quite mild compared to historical examples”. Allow me to explain my thinking.
The recent FOMC meeting as well as the expiration of the future contracts usually prompts some broad market concerns. Many professional traders refuse to trade over the 7+ days near an FOMC meeting – the volatility levels are usually much higher and this can throw some trading strategies into chaos. Our BAN Trader Pro strategy handles volatility quite well most of the time.
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Sunday, March 28, 2021
Investors, Speculators, Gamblers, Instigators / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2021
By: Kelsey_Williams
Nowadays, it seems that anyone who owns anything fancies themselves to be an investor. However, does buying a fractional unit of bitcoin in an online trading account qualify someone as an investor?
Are fanciful dreams of striking it rich by running with the social media herd the foundation of fundamental investing? Maybe there is more to it than that. Let’s take a look.
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Sunday, March 28, 2021
Why Retreating Yields Don‘t Lift All Market Boats / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2021
By: Monica_Kingsley
Stocks declined but won‘t they run higher next? Tuesday‘s downswing changed precious little, and the Congressional testimony was a non-event. The key happening was in long-dated Treasuries, which rose yet again – the much awaited rebound is here, and brings consequences to quite a few S&P 500 sectors.
The index is likely to advance, but the engine is going to be tech this time – not value stocks. I view this as a deceptive, fake strength in the bull market leadership passing over to value inevitably next. That‘s why I expect the S&P 500 advance to unfold still, a bit rockier than it could have been otherwise. This will hold true for as long as TLT is at least somewhat rising:
(…) technology would recover some of the lost ground on rates stabilization. ...the $UST10Y move has been a very sharp one, more than tripling from the Aug 2020 lows.
Technology though declined yesterday, and so did value stocks. Many markets went through selloffs yesterday, among commodities most notably oil. While nothing has substantially changed, we got a serious whiff of risk-off environment, pertaining precious metals too.
Friday, March 26, 2021
U.S. Stocks: Here's Evidence of a "Nearly Unprecedented Acceptance of Risk" / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2021
By: EWI
Penny stocks fever has reached "the highest level since the first three months of 2000"
Penny stocks tend to be highly illiquid. In other words, it's difficult to buy and sell them at favorable prices.
Even so, the lure of low-priced shares is hard for many market participants to resist, especially the novices -- like in 2000, when penny stock trading had reached a fever pitch.
Well, just about the same thing has been going on this year. Here's a Jan. 20 Reuters headline:
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Friday, March 26, 2021
After Fed Week – Stock Market What’s Next? / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2021
By: Chris_Vermeulen
In the first part of this research article, we shared more detail related to the Excess Phase Peak technical pattern that is setting up in the NASDAQ and to highlight the validity of our Gann/Fibonacci Technical research which suggested a peak in the markets may set up sometime after April 1, 2021. We’ve received many questions and comments from our readers and followers related to these articles. Many people seem to believe we are calling for an April 1 market peak based on this research, yet the technical patterns we are highlighting suggest a longer-term market peak may already be setting up.
In this second part of our more detailed “what next” article, my research team and I will highlight exactly why we believe traders and investors need to be prepared for an extended technical topping pattern and how it will likely set up over the next 60 to 90+ days. Let’s continue our research from Part I and go into more detail related to this technical setup.
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Thursday, March 25, 2021
Tide Is Turning in Stocks and Gold / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2021
By: Monica_Kingsley
Friday‘s session ended in a tie, but it‘s the bears who missed an opportunity to win. Markets however dialed back their doubting of the Fed, which has been apparent in the long-term Treasuries the most. One daily move doesn‘t make a trend change likely though, especially since the Mar pace of TLT decline is on par with Feb‘s and higher than in Jan. While Treasuries paused in early Mar, they‘re now once again as extended vs. their 50-day moving average as before.
And that poses a challenge for interest rate sensitive stocks and to some degree also for tech - while I expect value to continue to lead over growth, technology would recover some of the lost ground on rates stabilization. And it‘s true that the $UST10Y move has been a very sharp one, more than tripling from the Aug 2020 lows.
Inflation expectations are rising, and so is inflation – PPI under the hood thus far only. Financial assets are rising, perfectly reflected in (this month consolidating) commodity prices. Cost-driven inflation is in our immediate future, not one joined at the hip with job market pressures – that‘s waiting for 2022-3. The story of coming weeks and months is the stimulus avalanche hitting while the Fed still merrily ignores the bond market pressures.
Thursday, March 25, 2021
Market Timing For The Next Two Weeks / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2021
By: Avi_Gilburt
Every time I branch out to read articles being presented throughout the internet each week, it simply makes me shake or scratch my head. Moreover, I stand in amazement at anyone who attempts to base their investment portfolio upon such information.
As I have said many times, after many years of market study, I have found no better analysis methodology that provides market context better than Elliott Wave analysis. It provides forewarning as to melt-up set-ups in the market, as well as periods of market volatility.
Last week, I warned our members that we were entering a period of time which will present a choppy and difficult market to navigate. And, the market certainly delivered within our expectations. And, did interest rates or exogenous events tell me this was going to happen?
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Tuesday, March 23, 2021
Stock Market Pause in an Uptrend / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2021
By: Andre_Gratian
Current Position of the Market
SPX Long-term trend: There is some evidence that we are still in the bull market which started in 2009 and which could continue into the first half of 2021 before major cycles take over and it comes to an end.
SPX Intermediate trend: SPX may have completed a phase of its intermediate uptrend and is consolidating.
Analysis of the short-term trend is done daily with the help of hourly charts. They are important adjuncts to the analysis of daily and weekly charts which determine longer market trends.
Monday, March 22, 2021
Stock Market After The FOMC – What’s Next? / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2021
By: Chris_Vermeulen
I have received numerous emails and questions regarding the market’s set up and what to expect after the Triple-Witching event (FOMC, Futures/Options expiration) last week. It appears many traders/investors are seeking some clarity related to price trends and the potential opportunities that are setting up in the US markets right now. In this research article, my research team and I provide some greater detail related to what we believe is likely to happen over the next 5 to 8+ weeks.
Our recent Gann/Fibonacci research article drew quite a bit of attention from readers. Their biggest concern was that we were suggesting a major peak in the markets could setup in early April 2021. We want to be clear about this longer term market setup to make sure our readers and followers fully understand the implications of this technical pattern.
A peak/top could start to setup anytime after April 1, 2021, based on the Gann/Fibonacci research we’ve completed. But, that peak/top setup could also happen anytime between April 2021 and August 2021 (or slightly later). Timing this pattern is not something we can accomplish very easily as the range of dates where this Gann/Fibonacci inflection level exists consists of about 5+ months. The one key factor we continued to stress in that article was to “watch for a technical breakdown in price above the $379 to $380 price level on the SPY”. Many readers may be able to comprehend what we are trying to say by this statement, but we’ll try to help clarify it by showing what it would look like on a price chart.
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Friday, March 19, 2021
Are We Days Away From Potential Gann/Fibonacci Stock Market Price Peak? / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2021
By: Chris_Vermeulen
We have received many emails from members and readers asking us to follow-up on our December 30, 2020, Gann/Fibonacci research article entitled “Price Amplitude Arcs/Gann Suggest A Major Peak in Early April 2021 – Part II“. In that article, my research team suggested a major price peak may set up in early April 2021. Now we are only a few weeks away from the start of April and we believe the US major indexes have already started to make their move related to the Gann/Fibonacci peak prediction. Let’s review our original research and then take a look at what is happening on the charts right now.
Before we get started, please know that this article talks about the long-term trend and pattern forming. This topping setup may drag out until later this year, possibly August and beyond. As always, we do not trade or invest based on predictions. We simply follow the price. Until the market price confirms a new downtrend, we will remain long stocks.
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Thursday, March 18, 2021
Dow Stock Market Long-term Trend Analysis / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2021
By: Nadeem_Walayat
FED Balance Sheet
Not to forget the inflation mega-trend courtesy of rampant central bank money printing to monetize government debt coupled with the fake inflation indices. So you really think US inflation is just 1%? it's more like 6%! Anyway the money printing binge now totals $7.4 trillion, up from $4 trillion at the start of 2020.
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Thursday, March 18, 2021
Stock Bulls Run – Will Gold Ones Too? / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2021
By: Monica_Kingsley
Resting on Friday, surging on Monday. Feeble downswing attempt defeated right after the open, and then just bullish price action. Retail data today, and another FOMC meeting tomorrow – I view the former as not too likely to spoil today‘s market action. About the latter, remembering the latest reactions to Powell pronouncements, I look for the markets to be affected to a much greater degree.
Don‘t look for material surprises, or be spooked by bets on the Fed tightening through dot plot adjustment or other forward guidance tools.I expect no change from what I wrote yesterday:
(…) Who could be surprised, given the modern monetary theory ruling the economic landscape? The Fed amply accomodative, one $1.9T stimulus bill just in, and a $2T infrastructure one in the making. That‘s after the prior Trump stimulus, and who would have forgotten how it all started in April 2020? The old congressional saying „a billion here, a billion there, and pretty soon you‘re talking real money“, needs updating.
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Thursday, March 18, 2021
Are The US Stock Markets Sending A Warning Sign? / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2021
By: Chris_Vermeulen
After an incredible rally phase that initiated just one day before the US elections in November 2020, we’ve seen certain sectors rally extensively. Are the markets starting to warn us that this rally phase may be stalling? We noticed very early that some of the strongest sectors appear to be moderately weaker on the first day of trading this week. Is it because of Triple-Witching this week (Friday, March 19, 2021)? Or is it because the Treasury Yields continue to move slowly higher? What’s really happening right now and should traders/investors be cautious?
The following XLF Weekly chart shows how the Financial sector rallied above the upper YELLOW price channel, which was set from the 2018 and pre COVID-19 2020 highs. Early 2021 was very good for the financial sector overall, we saw a 40%+ rally in this over just 6 months on expectations that the US economy would transition into a growth phase as the new COVID vaccines are introduced.
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Thursday, March 18, 2021
Stock Market March Rally Was Good - April Will Be Even Better / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2021
By: Avi_Gilburt
Oftentimes, I will peruse the articles being published on Seeking Alpha to gain a perspective as to whether others “in the know” are bearish or bullish, and why. But, the “why” aspect is the most entertaining to me.
When I decide to click on an article discussing the market, I find that the article most often explains what the market has done either yesterday or the week before. Then it goes into a discussion of the reasons the market did what it did. In other words, most articles are primarily concerned with trying to explain the past action of the market. But, here is the kicker. They then attempt to extrapolate the reasons of the past into the action of the future. This is where most fail.
First, one is only assuming they have an understanding as to why a market dropped or rallied in the past week. Simply because there is an event or news item that occurred during that week, they superficially assume that it caused the market move we experienced.
What is truly absurd is when the exact opposite event or news item is reported, and the market continues in the same path as before, they then have the gall to explain to us that this exact opposite event or new item caused the market to continue to rally.
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Wednesday, March 17, 2021
Dow Stock Seasonal and Presidential Trend Analysis / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2021
By: Nadeem_Walayat
The seasonal pattern suggests after a pause in Feb, then higher into late April the correct from early May into late June followed by a volatile summer terminating in a swing low during September that should set the scene for a bull run into the Christmas Holidays with of course intra month volatility during October that tends to resolve to the upside just as the perma-bears crow their loudest about the market having topped.
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Wednesday, March 17, 2021
Is Stock Market Uptrend Already Resuming? / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2021
By: Andre_Gratian
Current Position of the Market
SPX Long-term trend: There is some evidence that we are still in the bull market which started in 2009 and which could continue into the first half of 2021 before major cycles take over and it comes to an end..
SPX Intermediate trend: SPX may have completed a phase of its intermediate uptrend and is consolidating
Analysis of the short-term trend is done daily with the help of hourly charts. They are important adjuncts to the analysis of daily and weekly charts which determine longer market trends.
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Monday, March 15, 2021
Resting Stock Bulls and Gold Question Mark / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2021
By: Monica_Kingsley
Stock bulls went right for all time highs yesterday, clearing the 3,900 threshold in this correction – one that is in its very late innings indeed. But the preceding upswing has been sharp, and not all the internals support such a swift recovery, which is why I am still looking for consolidation to strike at any moment.
We might be actually experiencing such a daily one right now, as today‘s premarket session has sent S&P 500 futures a few dozen points down. The big picture is though one of of the stock market getting used to rising rates, which are rising in reflection of the economic growth. But what about the snapback short-term rally in long-term Treasuries?
It‘s not materializing as the instrument went down again yesterday – unconvincingly bobbing above recent lows. The defensive sectors such as consumer staples and utilities, reversed yesterday (at a time when technology rose), sending a warning that we‘re about to see higher rates again. Probably not happening as fast as through Feb, but still. Let‘s bring up my recent perspective on high rates, what they are exactly:
(…) the „high rates“ we‘re experiencing currently, do not compare to the early 1980s, which underscores the fragility of the current monetary order. The Fed knows that, and it has been evident in the long preparatory period and baby steps in the prior rate raising and balance sheet shrinking cycle.
The market will see through this, and the central bank would be forced to move to bring long-term rates down through yield curve control or a twist program, which would break the dollar, drive emerging markets, and not exactly control inflation – real rates would drop like a stone in such a scenario, turning around gold profoundly.
But the market knows the Fed isn‘t getting ready to really do anything more than it does right now. Gold rebounded on Tuesday, and the rally took it above $1,730 but the daily reversal is concerning. As I wrote yesterday in the title, the gold bulls can‘t rest – but they are resting, and prices are back at the lower end of the $1,720 volume profile.
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Sunday, March 14, 2021
Stocks Bulls Can Take a Rest – But Gold Ones Can‘t / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2021
By: Monica_Kingsley
The daily banging on the 3,900 threshold shows in yesterday‘s upper knot, and this milestone has very good chances of being conquered today. More important than the exact timing though, are the internals marking the setup – we‘ve indeed progressed very far into this correction. While not historically among the longest ones, it‘s still getting long in the tooth – just as I was writing throughout the week.
And it is getting stale, even if I look at the star non-cofirnation, the high yield corporate bonds. Relatively modest daily upswing, outshined by investment grade corporate bonds. Yes, the credit markets are calming down, and the tiny daily long-term Treasuries upswing doesn‘t reflect that fully just yet. Besides giving breathing room to defensives such as utilities and consumer staples, it‘s also very conducive to the precious metals sector.
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Sunday, March 14, 2021
What Stock Market Lessons Can We Learn From Yoda - The Jedi Master? / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2021
By: Avi_Gilburt
Over the last 9 years since we opened Elliottwavetrader, I have had the privilege of training thousands of investors, traders and money managers regarding how to appropriately view the stock market from an honest and objective standpoint. And, during that time, I have just about seen it all when it comes to the wide array of perspectives with which people approach the market.
So, in this article, I am going to tap into some of the brilliance presented in the teachings of the Jedi Master - Yoda, and will apply it to my experience in training thousands of investors, traders and money managers. I will also be bolstering these lessons with what our members have actually said about these truths regarding the market.
YODA: “Ready are you? What know you of ready? For eight hundred years have I trained Jedi. My own counsel will I keep on who is to be trained. A Jedi must have the deepest commitment, the most serious mind.”
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Saturday, March 13, 2021
Dow Stock Market Elliott Wave Analysis / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2021
By: Nadeem_Walayat
My commonsense interpretation of EWT continues to resolve in accurate outcomes as the chart of my last analysis implied to expect a strong 5 wave impulse advance into 2021 that has come to pass.
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Thursday, March 11, 2021
Dow Stock Market Long-term Trend Analysis / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2021
By: Nadeem_Walayat
The Dow has broken out to new all time highs above 29,600 which successfully held as support during the January correction.
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Thursday, March 11, 2021
Stock Market Pullback that’s largely driven by Tech and Growth Stocks / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2021
By: Troy_Bombardia
Last week saw a wide divergence in the stock market. Sectors that exploded higher after March 2020 (e.g. tech, IPOs, growth stocks) saw sharp drawdowns while sectors that lagged significantly (e.g. energy & finance) are catching up. In this Market Report I will highlight a few indicators that matter right now. But more importantly, I’ll discuss how we’re investing & trading in this environment because at the end of the day, the only thing that matters is how you’re positioned. Everything else is just noise.
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Thursday, March 11, 2021
Yet Another Bubble And Stock Market Crash Article / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2021
By: Avi_Gilburt
If I see another article calling this market a bubble, or that the crash is coming, or claiming that “the party is over,” I am seriously going to scream. But, I guess we should thank all these article writers as they are adding bricks to the wall of worry that we will climb in 2021.
I mean, have you ever seen a crash when everyone, and their mother, grandmother, uncle, aunt, and aunt’s cat knew it was coming? In fact, I got calls from many of my relatives asking me whether they should get out of the market since all they are hearing is that we are going to get a repeat of the March 2020 crash.
As an individual investor, you are undoubtedly bombarded by information throughout the internet. While some of it is bullish and most are normally bearish (as bearishness seems to sell better), it is quite a challenge to be able to distinguish the wheat from the chaff. Unfortunately, the great majority of the information resides within the chaff, and often causes investors to focus upon their fear more so than profitable information.
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Tuesday, March 09, 2021
This Isn’t Your Father’s Overvalued Stock Market / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2021
By: John_Mauldin
Many analysts contend that current stock valuations resemble the dot-com era. You can see it visually at CurrentMarketValuation.com. Some highlights…
The classic “Buffett Indicator” certainly seems to be in nosebleed territory. Notice that the valuations in 1966, the beginning of a long-term bear market, were also high.
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Tuesday, March 09, 2021
Stock Market Great ADP Figures But Things Can Still Turn Nasty / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2021
By: Submissions
Powell gave a wait-and-see answer to my yesterday‘s rhetorical question about the bears just starting out, indeed. The S&P 500 plunged, breaking far outside the Bollinger Bands confines, illustrating the extraordinary nature of the move. Rebound would be perfectly natural here (and we‘re getting one as we speak) – but will it be more than a dead cat bounce?
Stocks partially recovered from last Friday‘s intraday plunge, and good news about the stimulus clearing House followed after the market close – stock bulls took the opportunity, and Monday‘s session gave signs that the worst is over. Tuesday‘s move partially negated that, but even after Wednesday, the short-term case was undecided (even as tech kept acting relatively weak).
Yesterday‘s session though gives the short-term advantage to the bears, and that‘s because of the weak performance I see in other stock market indices and bonds. The Russell 2000 got under pressure, negating what by yesterday still looked like a shallow correction there. So did the emerging markets and their bonds. More downside can materialize either suddenly or slowly over the coming say 1-2 weeks. It depends on the tech and its heavyweight names, where these find support.
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Tuesday, March 09, 2021
U.S. Stocks: Here's a Big Sign That "Sentiment Cannot Get Much More Extreme" / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2021
By: EWI
The stock exposure of the most bearish active investment managers is revealing
Relatively few investors want to bet against the stock market rally.
As a Feb. 18 financial article says (CNBC):
Short interest in the market has fallen to near-record lows.
Indeed, bullish sentiment is so extreme that even the most bearish among a group of professionals are behaving bullishly.
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Monday, March 08, 2021
The AI Stocks Megatrend Big Picture / Stock-Markets / AI
By: Nadeem_Walayat
Stock markets are soaring on the back of vaccines that herald the end game to the Covid nightmare. However the vaccines, covid-19 are all mere blips in the long-term trend trajectory that is being driven by AI and it's full spectrum application. For instance these are the key areas that I identified to focus upon over 5 years ago, though the number is always increasing as AI encroaches into every aspect of our lives which is why my focus primarily on core AI stocks rather than applications of AI.
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Monday, March 08, 2021
The Future of FINRA, Regulatory Defense and Bad Stockbrokers / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2021
By: Steve_Barker
FINRA stands for the Financial Industry Regulatory Authority. This tends to be the first line of defense against a bad experience with a securities broker, and it also has many other benefits. FINRA is an independent nongovernmental organization that focuses on the root of problems, securities sold to investors, and selling them to investors. It is the single largest independent regulatory body for securities firms operating in the United States. It writes and enforces the rules governing broker-dealer and registered brokers firms in the United States.
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Monday, March 08, 2021
It is Time for Stock Market Investor Caution? / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2021
By: Andre_Gratian
Current Position of the Market
SPX Long-term trend: There is some evidence that we are still in the bull market which started in 2009 and which could continue into the first half of 2021 before coming to an end.
SPX Intermediate trend: SPX is not likely to end its intermediate trend until it reaches about 4150.
Analysis of the short-term trend is done daily with the help of hourly charts. They are important adjuncts to the analysis of daily and weekly charts which determine longer market trends.
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Sunday, March 07, 2021
US Treasury Yields Rally May Trigger Stock Market Crazy Ivan Event / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2021
By: Chris_Vermeulen
In the first part of this research series, published yesterday, we explored the rising Yields and how my team and I expect markets to react to the new level of fear that may begin to enter the global credit markets. Rising Yields suggest investors believe the future risks to the global economy don’t support lower Yield rates. The talk that investors expect a super-heated global economy may have some truth to it, but we feel the rise in Yields is related more to global credit risks than any type of super-heated global economy.
Today we will explore the potential for a Crazy Ivan event in the global markets. This would be represented as a price revaluation event, causing the global markets to suddenly attempt to revalue price levels based on new levels of fear and more data.
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Saturday, March 06, 2021
Dow Short-term Stock Market Trend Analysis / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2021
By: Nadeem_Walayat
The stock market has fully recovered from the Chinese Coronavirus catastrophe. Remember the Dow traded down to a low of just 18,213 on 23rd of March 2020 and then over the next 10 months recovered to trade at a series of new all time highs into 2021, all whilst the virus has continued to rage on, delivering the US and UK WORSE second peaks in terms of infections and deaths.
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Friday, March 05, 2021
FED Balance Sheet Current State / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2021
By: Nadeem_Walayat
Not to forget the inflation mega-trend courtesy of rampant central bank money printing to monetize government debt coupled with the fake inflation indices. So you really think US inflation is just 1%? it's more like 6%! Anyway the money printing binge now totals $7.4 trillion, up from $4 trillion at the start of 2020.
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Friday, March 05, 2021
US Treasury Yields Rally May Trigger A Crazy Ivan Event (Again) In Stock Market / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2021
By: Chris_Vermeulen
Since shortly after the US November elections, my research team and I have been clear about our research and our belief that the bullish rally in the markets would continue to drive the strongest sectors higher and higher. In December 2020, we shared an article suggesting our proprietary Fibonacci Price Amplitude Arcs and GANN theory indicated a major price peak could set up in early April 2021. On February 3, 2021, we also published an early warning that Treasure Yields were set up to prompt a big topping pattern sometime over the next 6+ months . We followed that up with a February 21, 2021 article suggesting future Gold and Silver price trends may be tied to the moves in Treasury Yields and the resulting stock market trends.
Now that the Treasury Yields have completed what we suggested would be required to start a “revaluation event” in the stock market, we believe that a “Crazy Ivan” event may soon setup in the global markets. Many months back (August 28, 2019), we published an article about precious metals were about to pull a Crazy Ivan price event (https://www.thetechnicaltraders.com/precious-metals-crazy-ivan-followup/). This prediction came true in 2020 and 2021. Now, we are suggesting the global markets may pull a new type of Crazy Ivan event – a price revaluation event prompted by the rise in Treasury Yields.
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Thursday, March 04, 2021
Stocks, Gold – Rebound or Dead Cat Bounce? / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2021
By: Submissions
None of Friday‘s intraday attempts to recapture 3,850 stuck, and the last hour‘s selling pressure is an ill omen. Especially since it was accompanied by high yield corporate bondsh weakening. It‘s as if the markets only now noticed the surging long-end Treasury yields, declining steeply on Thursday as the 10y Treasury yield made it through 1.50% before retreating. And on Friday, stocks didn‘t trust the intraday reversal higher in 20+ year Treasuries either.
Instead, the options traders took the put/call ratio to levels unseen since early Nov. The VIX however doesn‘t reflect the nervousness, having remained near Thursday‘s closing values. Its long lower knot looks encouraging, and the coming few days would decide the shape of this correction which I have not called shallow since Wed‘s suspicious tech upswing. Here we are, the tech has pulled the 500-strong index down, and remains perched in a precarious position. Could have rebounded, didn‘t – instead showing that its risk-on (high beta) segments such as semiconductors, are ready to do well regardless.
That‘s the same about any high beta sector or stock such as financials – these tend to do well in rising rates environments. Regardless of any coming stabilization / retreat in long-term Treasury yields, it‘s my view that we‘re going to have to get used to rising spreads such as 2y over 10y as the long end still steepens. The markets and especially commodities aren‘t buying Fed‘s nonchalant attitude towards inflation. Stocks have felt the tremors, and will keep rising regardless, as it has been historically much higher rates that have caused serious issues (think 4% in 10y Treasuries).
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Wednesday, March 03, 2021
Stock Market Bull Trend in Jeopardy / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2021
By: Troy_Bombardia
What a week it has been! Various markets saw noticeable declines on news of rising yields. The strong upward trend for stocks is finally taking a long-overdue breather and so is extreme sentiment.
Let’s look at some bullish and bearish factors to give us a better idea of what the markets are doing.
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Friday, February 26, 2021
Congress May Increase The Moral Hazard Building In The Stock Market / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2021
By: Avi_Gilburt
A few weeks ago, I wrote about the moral hazard being created by the Pavlovian buy-the-dip perspective in the market. As I expect the market to top out in the next few years and enter into a prolonged bear market, the nature of the market rallies over the last 10 years have thoroughly trained investors that all you have to do is buy-the-dip, as the market always comes back.
In fact, this past week, I saw these two comments in my articles, which only reinforces my perspective:
“I love a good press on an author from a paid subscriber but I’ve been making money hand over fist by trading and pouncing on pullbacks on a few stocks I closely watch. You have to have the time and you have to know the stocks well. Making much more money this way than I ever was buying/holding/speculating.”
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Thursday, February 25, 2021
The Everything Stock Market Rally Continues / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2021
By: Troy_Bombardia
The market’s strong uptrend remains intact despite some lingering concerns about high valuations, extreme sentiment, and other overbought signals. Investors continue to pour into all markets (stocks, commodities, crypto etc.) with ever increasing liquidity.
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Wednesday, February 24, 2021
Is More Stock Market Correction Needed? / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2021
By: Andre_Gratian
Current Position of the Market
SPX Long-term trend: There is some good evidence that we are still in the bull market which started in 2009 and which could continue into the first half of 2021 before coming to an end.
SPX Intermediate trend: May continue until SPX reaches ~4050-4150 (March 2021).
Analysis of the short-term trend is done daily with the help of hourly charts. They are important adjuncts to the analysis of daily and weekly charts which determine longer market trends.
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Wednesday, February 24, 2021
How to Protect Your Positions From A Stock Market Sell-Off Using Options / Stock-Markets / Options & Warrants
By: Chris_Vermeulen
Today we are going to explore how you can use options to hedge against a sudden market reversal. As you know I am going to be launching a new options service with an options specialist, Neil Szczepanski, shortly so you should start seeing more and more research on options from us.
The first question we need to answer is will there be a market sell-off? If we first look at the S&P chart below, we can see that we have had an incredible run. In order to determine if this trend is weakening, we need to look at what is happening with key sectors and sector rotation. Since the beginning of 2021, we have seen a rotation into commodity sectors which is typical of a late-cycle surge. This might give us a hint that higher volatility projections might be realized.
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Tuesday, February 23, 2021
For Stocks, has the “Rational Bubble” Popped? / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2021
By: Paul_Rejczak
Matthew Levy writes: In keeping with last week’s theme, the market has mainly traded sideways this week. However, that correction I’ve been calling for weeks? We have potentially started.
While I don’t foresee a crash like we saw last March and feel that the wheels are in motion for a healthy 2021, I still maintain that some correction before the end of Q1 could happen.
Bank of America also echoed this statement and said last week that “We expect a buyable 5-10% Q1 correction as the big ‘unknowns’ coincide with exuberant positioning, record equity supply, and as good as it gets’ earnings revisions.”
Yes, the sentiment is still positive. That won’t change overnight. Vaccines seem more effective than we thought, especially against other variants of the virus. All that extra stimulus money and record low-interest rates could keep pushing stocks to more records and stimulate pent-up consumer spending. It’s not like the Fed is going to switch this policy up anytime soon, either.
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Monday, February 22, 2021
Stock Markets Discounting Post Covid Economic Boom / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2021
By: Nadeem_Walayat
The stock market has continued to confound all of the doom merchants out there who blindly continue to point to the worst economic contraction since the great depression if not in history for most western economies. All whilst the Dow pushed its way to a new all time high into the end of 2020 and has continued to march ever higher during 2021 in response to which most investors have faced a barrage of that messages that the bubble is always about to burst, whilst my Patrons have received an unequivocal consistent message that this bull market has a long ways to go and that investors should not look a gift horse in the mouth when all of the stocks on my AI list were typically marked down by over 1/3rd against their Pre pandemic trading levels during March 2020.
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Monday, February 22, 2021
Pivotal Session In Stocks Bull Bear Battle / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2021
By: Ricky_Wen
Wednesday’s session was more of the same as it was another expected consolidation. If you recall, it was only day #2 of the pattern so patience Is needed given the past 2 weeks’ V-shape performance totaling +8% from the 3650s low to the 3950s high on the Emini S&P 500 (ES).
Today should be an pivotal session given that both sides are trying to win the battle here. Bulls are trying to stabilize a temporary low so the train can finalize a route towards new all time highs again. Bears are trying to break below last week’s low and below the trending daily 20EMA to cause a derailment.
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Sunday, February 21, 2021
S&P 500 Correction – No Need to Hold Onto Your Hat / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2021
By: Submissions
Yesterday‘s bearish price action in stocks was the kind of shallow, largely sideways correction I was looking for. Not too enthusiastic follow through – just rocking the boat while the S&P 500 bull run goes on. Stocks are likely to run quite higher before meeting a serious correction.
As I argued in yesterday‘s detailed analysis of the Fed policies, their current stance won‘t bring stocks down. But it‘s taking down long-term Treasuries, exerting pressure on the dollar (top in the making called previous Monday), and fuelling commodities – albeit at very differnt pace. The divergencies I have described yesterday, center on weak gold performance – not gaining traction through the monetary inflation, instead trading way closer in sympathy with Treasury prices.
Gold has frontrunned the other commodities through the corona deflationary shock, and appears waiting for more signs of inflation. It didn‘t make a final top in Aug 2020, and a new bear market didn‘t start. It‘s my opinion that thanks to the jittery Treasury markets, we‘re seeing these dislocations, and that once the Fed focuses on the long end of the curve in earnest, that would remove the albatross from gold‘s back.
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Sunday, February 21, 2021
Owning Real Assets Amid Surreal Financial Markets / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2021
By: MoneyMetals
In the current market environment, little else matters other than momentum. What’s moving up gets chased higher still by investors. And what can be moved up by any means is pursued by speculators who hope to jump-start a momentum trade.
It’s all being fueled by cheap money and government “stimulus.”
The consequences?
The U.S. stock market trades at an historically high premium to GDP (the so-called “Buffett indicator”).
Speculative trading frenzies in stocks such as GameStop defy any kind of fundamental analysis.
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Saturday, February 20, 2021
Is That the S&P 500 And Gold Correction Finally? / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2021
By: Submissions
The stock bears finally showed they aren‘t an extinct species – merely a seriously endangered one. Yesterday‘s close though gives them a chance to try again today, but they should be tame in expectations. While there is some chart deterioration, it‘s not nearly enough to help fuel a full on bearish onslaught in the S&P 500. There is no serious correction starting now, nothing to really take down stocks seriously for the time being.
The Fed remains active, and monetary policy hasn‘t lost its charm (effect) just yet. Commodities and asset price inflation has been in high gear for quite some time, yet it‘s not a raging problem for the Main Street as evidenced by the CPI. Food price inflation, substitution and hedonistic adjustments in its calculation, are a different cup of tea, but CPI isn‘t biting yet.
Meanwhile, the real economy recovery goes on (just check yesterday‘s Empire State Manufacturing figures for proof), even without the $1.9T stimulus and infrastructure plans. Once we see signs of strain in the job market (higher participation rate, hourly earnings and hours worked), then the real, palpable inflation story can unfold. But we‘re talking 2022, or even 2023 to get there – and the Fed will just let it overshoot to compensate for the current and prior era.
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Friday, February 19, 2021
The Stock Market Big Picture / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2021
By: Nadeem_Walayat
The stock market has continued to confound all of the doom merchants out there who blindly continue to point to the worst economic contraction since the great depression if not in history for most western economies. All whilst the Dow pushed its way to a new all time high into the end of 2020 and has continued to march ever higher during 2021 in response to which most investors have faced a barrage of that messages that the bubble is always about to burst, whilst my Patrons have received an unequivocal consistent message that this bull market has a long ways to go and that investors should not look a gift horse in the mouth when all of the stocks on my AI list were typically marked down by over 1/3rd against their Pre pandemic trading levels during March 2020.
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Friday, February 19, 2021
Three More Reasons We Love To Trade Options! / Stock-Markets / Options & Warrants
By: Chris_Vermeulen
Hi everyone, it’s me Neil Szczepanski again and I’m back to finish off telling you why I love to trade options! If you missed the first half of this article entitled “5 Reasons Why People Prefer To Trade Options Over Stocks” then click on the title to revisit it. In this second and final installment, I will walk through how adjustments and risk management of options can help give you better control of your trades and profits. I hope everyone enjoys the information and I look forward to helping everyone win with options trading!
REDUCE RISK
Everyone has heard a story about someone who mischaracterized or misunderstood their options trade, then having their account blow up when the underlying stock goes the wrong way. This happened recently with a Robinhood trader who woke up one morning to see his account at -$730,165. In this tragic event the kid took his life because he thought he had lost $730,165 and couldn’t reach his brokerage to understand his account. We learned later that the negative balance did not represent uncollateralized indebtedness at all, but rather his temporary balance until the stocks underlying his assigned options actually settled into his account. In short it was a delay in processing of the options contracts in his account, and not the actual trade that went awry. This is why it is very important that in this game of trading you get the proper training so you understand your risk. The risk is real.
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Friday, February 19, 2021
Stock Market March Melt-Up Madness / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2021
By: Avi_Gilburt
March Madness is a term referring to the college basketball single-elimination tournament of 68 teams, leading up to the “Final Four,” from which the ultimate college basketball champion is determined. Most of the games take place during the last half of March, with the ultimate winner determined in early April.
But, I am seeing potential for a March Madness setup in the equity market as well.
While analyst and investor alike have been scratching their heads at the amazing market rally, we have seen since we struck the low back in March, I think many will be surprised at the next phase of the rally, which may actually be one of the strongest.
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Thursday, February 18, 2021
Why This "Excellent" Stock Market Indicator Should Be on Your Radar Screen Now / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2021
By: EWI
"No crowd buys stocks of other countries intelligently"Elliott Wave International's 25+ analysts regularly review more than 100+ market indicators to keep subscribers ahead of major turns.
Many of those are "technical" indicators. Others are "sentiment" related.
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Thursday, February 18, 2021
S&P 500 Correction Delayed Again While Silver Runs / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2021
By: Submissions
The window of opportunity for the stock bears is slowly but surely closing down as Friday‘s gentle intraday peek higher turned into a buying spree before the closing bell. The sentiment readings and put/call ratio are at the greed, euphoric and compacent end of the spectrum again.
I asked on Friday:
(…) How long can it last, and what shape the upcoming correction would have? Right now, the warning signs are mounting, yet the bears shouldn‘t put all their eggs into the correction basket really, for it shapes to be a shallow one – one in time, rather than in price.
Today, I‘ll say that waiting for a correction is like waiting for Godot. Trust me, I have come to experience quite some absurd and Kafkaesque drama not too long ago. What an understatement.
One week ago, I called the dollar as making a local top, and look where we are in the process. Coupled with the steepening pace of rising long-dated Treasury yields, that‘s a great environment for financials (XLF ETF) as they benefit from the widening yield curve.
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Wednesday, February 17, 2021
Stock Market Trend Forecasts Analysis Review / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2021
By: Nadeem_Walayat
The stock market has continued to confound all of the doom merchants out there who blindly continue to point to the worst economic contraction since the great depression if not in history for most western economies. All whilst the Dow pushed its way to a new all time high into the end of 2020 and has continued to march ever higher during 2021 in response to which most investors have faced a barrage of that messages that the bubble is always about to burst, whilst my Patrons have received an unequivocal consistent message that this bull market has a long ways to go and that investors should not look a gift horse in the mouth when all of the stocks on my AI list were typically marked down by over 1/3rd against their Pre pandemic trading levels during March 2020.
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Wednesday, February 17, 2021
First year of a Stocks bull market, or End of a Bubble? / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2021
By: Troy_Bombardia
This bull market is unique because unlike past bull markets, this one began with extreme speculation. Historically, extreme speculation occurred at the end of multi-year bull markets. This is why the markets are currently exhibiting extremely bullish signs (e.g. breadth today is similar to what you see at the start of multi-year bull markets) and extremely bearish signs (e.g. speculation today is similar to what you see at the end of multi-year bull markets). How do we reconcile these two opposites?
Let’s take a look at some bullish & bearish factors:
Subsiding volatility
VIX closed below 20 for the first time in almost a year. The past year was a nervous one for markets: stocks rallied, but investors and traders were consistently on edge.
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Wednesday, February 17, 2021
5 Reasons Why People Prefer to Trade Options Over Stocks / Stock-Markets / Options & Warrants
By: Chris_Vermeulen
As technical traders, we know the importance of following the price charts using proven trading strategies and implementing risk and position management. Here at TheTechnicalTraders.com we are stepping things up a notch by adding options to our trading.
By using options, a trader can leverage, hedge positions, and generate income via selling premiums. There are basic options, strategies, and complex, and everything in between. Because of that, I have brought options trading specialist Neil Szczepanski to join our team. I will let Neil introduce himself.
Hi everyone! Neil Szczepanski here. In case you are wondering it is pronounced “Sus’ pan ski”. Yes, I have roots in eastern European ancestry and I’m first generation. I love options and have been trading them for many, many years. I like options because you have more ways to be profitable in your trading. I hate putting on a position and then waiting for the market to go your way. I want to be in control of my trades and options allows for that. Also, trading can equal freedom.
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Tuesday, February 16, 2021
S&P 500 Correction Looming, Just as in Gold – Or Not? / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2021
By: Submissions
Stocks are clinging to the 3,900 level, and the bulls aren‘t yielding. Without much fanfare, both the sentiment readings and put/call ratio are at the greed and compacent end of the spectrum again. How long can it last, and what shape the upcoming correction would have? Right now, the warning signs are mounting, yet the bears shouldn‘t put all their eggs into the correction basket really, for it shapes to be a shallow one – one in time, rather than in price.
Gold‘s hardship is another cup of tea, standing in stark comparison to how well silver and platinum are doing. At the same time, the dollar hasn‘t really moved to the upside – there is no dollar breakout. If the greenback were to break to the upside, that would mean a dollar bull market, which I don't view as a proposition fittingly describing the reality – I called the topping dollar earlier this week. The world reserve currency will remain on the defensive this year, and we saw not a retest, but a local top.
This has powerful implications for the precious metals, where the only question is whether we get a weak corrective move to the downside still, or whether we can base in a narrow range, followed by another upleg (think spring). February isn't the strongest month for precious metals seasonally, true, but it isn't a disaster either. As has been the case throughout the week, I‘ll update and present the evidence of internal sectoral strength also today.
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Tuesday, February 16, 2021
Stock Market Last pull-back before intermediate top? / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2021
By: Andre_Gratian
Current Position of the Market
SPX Long-term trend: There is some good evidence that we are still in the bull market which started in 2009 and which could continue into the first half of 2021 before coming to an end.
SPX Intermediate trend: May continue until SPX reaches ~4150 (March 2021).
Analysis of the short-term trend is done daily with the help of hourly charts. They are important adjuncts to the analysis of daily and weekly charts which determine longer market trends.
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Monday, February 15, 2021
Feeling the Growing Heat and Tensions in Stocks? / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2021
By: Submissions
Yesterday was a prelude, a little preview of things to come. We better get used to brief and shallow corrections again, after being lulled by the many preceding sessions. It appears that we‘re now going to get the consolidation period even as the overall S&P 500 metrics remain in a healthy territory.
This is the (print-and-spend-happy) world we live in, and we better not fixate on the premature bubble pop talk too closely. I have been stating repeatedly that things have to get really ridiculous first, and this doesn‘t qualify yet in my view. So, for all the tech bashers, we‘re going higher – like it or not.
Let‘s get right into the charts (all courtesy of www.stockcharts.com).
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Saturday, February 13, 2021
US Economic Data Tempers Expectations on the Stock Market / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2021
By: Boris_Dzhingarov
Snapshot of the US Economy: Movers and Shakers
The performance of the US economy at any point in time is predicated on a series of economic indicators. Several important metrics must be assessed to gain a better understanding of US equities markets, and the economy at large.
Chief among them are the GDP growth rate, the unemployment rate, non-farm payrolls, the inflation rate, and interest rate. As it stands, theGDP growth rate is currently at 4%, the unemployment rate is at 6.3%, NFP data is at 49, and the January 2021 inflation rate remains unchanged at 1.4% (same as December 2020).
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Thursday, February 11, 2021
Millennials Will Propel Stocks Higher For Years / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2021
By: Stephen_McBride
A message board destroys a top Wall Street hedge fund. You’ve surely heard about the WallStreetBets/GameStop saga by now. Many investors see it as a sign markets are headed for a crash.
In fact, Google searches for “stock market bubble” just hit the highest level ever. And a new E-Trade survey found two-thirds of investors think the market is in a bubble.
What if I told you this is the start of a megatrend that will propel disruptor stocks higher for years? As I’ll show you today, this story runs much deeper than a bunch of average Joes crushing the pros.
I think it’s jet fuel that will propel the stock market higher for a long time. And it all has to do with today’s generation of young adults, aka “millennials.”
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Thursday, February 11, 2021
What Are the Top Stocks to Watch in February? / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2021
By: Boris_Dzhingarov
Stimulus + Stimulus = Robust Recovery in the Stock Market
With 2020 behind us, 2021 is shaping up to be a better year for the financial markets. Trader and investor optimism have strengthened, across most markets, including Emerging Markets, the Eurozone, and the United States. The ravages of a short-lived bear market were devastating, but the bulls are stomping their hooves.
This year, markets are expected to rebound on the back of several key elements, notably mass vaccinations of the global populace, multiple government stimulus efforts, and the development of a robust new-age, digital economy. All of these factors are coalescing to create new economic opportunities for growth.
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Wednesday, February 10, 2021
Another Stock Market Short-term Dip Ahead? / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2020
By: Andre_Gratian
Current Position of the Market
SPX Long-term trend: There is some good evidence that we are still in the bull market which started in 2009 and which could continue into the first quarter of 2021 before coming to an end.
SPX Intermediate trend: May continue until SPX reaches ~ 4150.
Analysis of the short-term trend is done daily with the help of hourly charts. They are important adjuncts to the analysis of daily and weekly charts which determine longer market trends.
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Tuesday, February 09, 2021
Stock Market S&P 500 Continues To Climb, See What Sectors Are Set to Climb Even Higher / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2021
By: Chris_Vermeulen
While you may not have been paying attention, some of the strongest sectors are already showing great strength and setting up for new breakout rallies. Over the past 30+ days, sector trends have rotated as the market volatility has increased. Right now, we are seeing strength in some of the same sectors that were leading the markets 60+ days ago: Discretionary, Comm Services, Technology, Energy, Financials, and Real Estate. If you are not paying attention to these trends, you may miss some of the best assets to trade given big sector ETF moves we’ve seen in early 2021.
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Monday, February 08, 2021
Mid-Caps & Transportation Show Upside Targets For Next Stock Market Rally / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2021
By: Chris_Vermeulen
An important technical conclusion stemming from the recent volatility spike is that prices must continue to push higher, above previous highs, in order to confirm the continued upside price expectations. The recent volatility spike and downside rotation in the US major stock market were big enough to reset many trending systems and prompt new upside price targets. In this research article, I will share our targets on the Mid-Caps and the Transportation ETFs to show you want we expect from the potential rally.
IWM Breakout Above $218.35 Suggests Rally Is Just Starting
The IWM, the Ishares Russell 2000 ETF, Daily chart highlights the recent rotation in price and shows a Fibonacci price extension range from the late December 2020 lows to the recent late January 2021 highs. I use these Fibonacci price extensions as a means of measuring potential upside or downside price targets, which seem to be fairly accurate. Watching what happens near the 61.8% level on the chart will guide us in determining if the 100% target level will be reached quickly or after a bit of consolidation.
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Monday, February 08, 2021
Prepare for "The Changing World Order in 2021" / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2021
By: EWI
Dear Reader,
Every so often, the financial markets -- and usually, the entire world -- come to important pivot points.
You can think back to the year 2000, or 2007, or 2009 as recent examples.
And now, our friends at Elliott Wave International -- the world's largest independent market-forecasting firm -- say that 2021 may also join that list.
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Monday, February 08, 2021
When Will the Stock Market Party End? / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2021
By: Michael_Pento
I’d like to explain why these already-stretched markets could crash by the start of the 3rd quarter. I’ve been warning over the past month, or about, that my Inflation/Deflation and Economic Cycle Model SM is forecasting a potential crash in equities around the start of Q3 this year. Of course, this timing could change and I would only take action in the portfolio if the Model validates this forecast to be correct. Nevertheless, here’s why the bubble we are currently riding higher in the portfolio could burst around that time.
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Sunday, February 07, 2021
Volatility Spike Shocks Markets – Resets Trend Systems / Stock-Markets / Volatility
By: Chris_Vermeulen
The recent volatility spike in the VIX prompted a very quick downturn in price levels across all US major Indexes over the past few trading days This sharp decline, although only lasting four trading days, prompted many systems to warn of a potentially much deeper price correction. As of the close of trading on Friday, January 29, 2021, it looked like a deep correction in price was setting up. Our proprietary BAN Trader Pro system also generated a “trend reset” trigger on Friday. This means our systems expected a change in trend, suggesting a bearish price trend was setting up, based on this spike in volatility and what appeared to be a moderately deep price trend.
VIX Hiccup Shocks Market Traders
The reality is that this downside trend move took place while a number of other factors were playing out. First, the Reddit group was targeting certain sectors/symbols in addition to the fact that the markets had already rallied a substantial amount since the November 2 election. This spike in the VIX index shocked a number of people and suggested a change in price trend.
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Friday, February 05, 2021
Stock Market Bears Losing The Battle / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2021
By: Ricky_Wen
Monday's action retraced all losses from Friday as the Emini S&P 500 (ES) formed a double bottom during Sunday night at 3650 key level. The next two sessions will be pivotal in confirming whether it's risk on again or whether we need to wait a bit. Right now, bears are losing the battle before price action is back to neutral mode given the V-shape recovery into 61.8-78.6% retracement of the 3860s-3650s range.
The main takeaway is that this is healthy consolidation in the bigger picture because it allows the market to reset and take out some novices and shake the tree a bit. It clears out the newish traders that keep on buying calls and getting paid easily for the past few months. It ain’t gonna be as easy and simple as that going forward. At least not until price action confirms the stabilization/higher lows. During Sunday night, the market held the 3650s and formed a temporary double bottom setup. This was no surprise because we’ve been saying the 3650 area has been a key level for the past few weeks. It is the confluence of the January monthly lows.
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Friday, February 05, 2021
Did GameStop Mark the Stock Market Top? / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2021
By: Stephen_McBride
“You do stocks, huh? I’m thinking about ploughing a few grand into GameStop. That thing’s going to the moon, bro!”
The guy on the treadmill next to me was clearly excited. Then he told me all about another opportunity as he wiped sweat off his face.
“The next Tesla,” he said, grinning from ear to ear. And he wasn’t the only one. I had at least four conversations about stocks at my local gym last week. (It’s not exactly a hotbed of investors. In fact, I’ve never talked about stocks there until recently).
Another guy told me he bought $5,000 worth of Royal Caribbean Cruises. Why? It “went down a lot.” And he thinks it’s a “lock” to bounce back.
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Friday, February 05, 2021
Stocks Need to Consolidate Now, And Gold Will Anyway / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2021
By: Submissions
After Monday‘s great rise, stocks continued without much of a pause yesterday too. Did they get ahead of themselves, or not really? And what about those correction calls, is the alarm over now? As said yesterday, the bulk of the correction in stocks, is over.
Is it clear skies ahead now? In my very first 2021 analysis 10 days ago, I‘ve called for a not so rosy February ahead. Last Friday, options expired with stocks taking a plunge, so the current month will get an optical boost. I am looking for higher prices, and no correction around the corner.
Gold is in a different situation, still basing and unable to keep intraday gains. Having predictably given up the silver short squeeze boost, the search for the local bottom in largely sideways price action continues. That‘s likely to be the case given that the dollar has stabilized and is peeking higher (before eventually moving to new lows, is still my call).
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Wednesday, February 03, 2021
Here’s What’s More Important than the Recent Reddit GameStop Mania / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2021
By: P_Radomski_CFA
GameStop! Reddit! Silver manipulation (that’s been discussed for over two decades)! It’s exciting but pay attention to these more important factors.
Is the above really the key thing that’s happening in the markets right now? No, it’s only the most interesting thing. I admit, what we’re seeing on the Internet right now is truly absorbing, but one should realize that it’s what used to happen multiple times in history. This time it’s simply more visible as the conversations and associated images are publicly available and widely distributed.
In yesterday’s intraday Alert , I commented on the issue of the likely implications of these cumulative purchases on the precious metals market as a whole and what difference they are likely to make over the course of the following months and weeks – next to none.
Well, there is one effect that I’m expecting to see. It’s the increased volatility during the following price declines – likely proportionate to what was so vigorously bought in the last few days.
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Wednesday, February 03, 2021
The Wolf is At the Door (Or How to Protect Yourself Against This Bubble) / Stock-Markets / Stock Market Valuations
By: Paul_Lamont
More than1 Trillion shares traded in speculative over-the-counter (pink sheets) stocks in December. In the options market, option trading by retail investors registered 46 million contracts in one day in early January. Reporters forBloomberg described events as "another day of euphoria" in "Day-Trader Heaven." Non-profitable tech companies have gone bonkers (see below).
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Wednesday, February 03, 2021
Why Next Wave of Margin Calls Will Be FAR More "Disruptive" Than in 2000 or 2007 / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2021
By: EWI
"Can investors afford to borrow anymore?"
Financial history shows that every bear market has been followed by a bull market and vice versa.
So, the current bull market will end sooner or later.
The prior two bull market tops occurred in the years 2007 and 2000. One of the characteristics of each of those tops was investors' ramped up use of margin. In other words, market participants were borrowing heavily to buy stocks.
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Tuesday, February 02, 2021
Stock Market Bump in the Road? / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2021
By: Andre_Gratian
Current Position of the Market
SPX Long-term trend: There is some good evidence that we are still in the bull market which started in 2009 and which could continue into the first quarter of 2021 before coming to an end.
SPX Intermediate trend: May continue until SPX reaches ~ 4150.
Analysis of the short-term trend is done daily with the help of hourly charts. They are important adjuncts to the analysis of daily and weekly charts which determine longer market trends.
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Tuesday, February 02, 2021
Stock Investment in 2021 — Finding the Best Stocks to Invest in / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2021
By: Boris_Dzhingarov
Everyone wants to try their luck in the stock market. It gives them the chance to get some extra bucks that they can throw in their savings account. But the stock trading game is not an easy one to play. You have to be really strategic and resilient, and the stock market will be your cash cow.
As a beginner in stock trading, your biggest challenge is to find the best stocks to invest in. The stock market keeps changing every day. There is a wide range of investment opportunities to choose from. You have to pick the one that’s most profitable for you. But how exactly do you do that? Here is a quick guide to get you started.
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Saturday, January 30, 2021
VIX and Defensive Sectors React To Perceived Stock Market Trend Weakness / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2021
By: Chris_Vermeulen
Since early November 2020, the VIX has continued to decline and consolidate near the 22 level. Late in December 2020 and beyond, the VIX started setting up series-high price spikes – which indicates a flagging downside pattern is setting up. You can see this setup across the recent VIX highs drawn in MAGENTA on the chart below. Additionally, the VIX has “stepped” higher – moving from lows near 19.50 to higher lows near 21.00. This upward stepping base is indicative of a shift in volatility.
VIX Sets Up Pennant/Flag Pattern
My research team and I interpret this data as a sign that trend weakness is starting to build after the strong rally that initiated in early November 2020. Although we have not seen any clear sign that the markets are about to reverse or decline, this move in the VIX is suggesting that volatility is increasing. The high price “breakout”, yesterday, in the VIX suggests the MAGENTA flag setup is nearing an Apex/breakout point.
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Friday, January 29, 2021
7 Must-Have Apps for Day Traders / Stock-Markets / Stock Index Trading
By: Submissions
The past few years have seen a series of changes take place. The most impactful of them all is the increase in the importance of the Internet in our lives. As everything is moving online, the popularity of online trading has also increased significantly. Today, most people interested in making money by buying and selling shares, stocks, equities, etc. prefer to carry out their operations online. The main reason behind this change is the rise in popularity of cryptocurrencies like Bitcoin.
The biggest advantage of online trading is that you can take part in the actions irrespective of your location if you have a mobile device and a healthy Internet connection. To make the process of online trading even easier for traders, developers have come up with several apps. You can use some of them to boost your market intelligence and trading profits. The section below talks about seven apps day traders must have on their phones.
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Thursday, January 28, 2021
Russell 2000 ETF Initiates New Stock Market Rally Trend / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2021
By: Chris_Vermeulen
Last week my team and I alerted our readers to the current trends and shifting sectors that are getting hotter every day. Technology, Energy, Financials, Industrials and others are experiencing bullish trends we haven’t seen in years. The Russell 2000 ETF, URTY, is starting a new breakout uptrend just after our BAN Trader Pro system suggested the SPY may initiate a new bullish rally. You can read relevant research posts here: RECENT TRIGGERS IN THESE SECTORS SUGGEST US STOCK MARKETS MAY ENTER A RALLY PHASE and TECHNICAL TRADERS ARE USING THE BAN HOTLIST TRIGGERS WITH HUGE SUCCESS USING REGULAR ETFS, LEVERAGE ETFS, AND OPTIONS.
As we can see in the chart below, the Russell 2000 has been one of the top performers since just after the November 2020 elections. Originating a breakout trigger on November 3, near $43.46, and confirming a “New High Breakout” on November 9, near $51.37, the Russell 200 sector has been rallying very strongly over the past 60+ days. The current “New Price High” breakout suggests this rally may continue. Fibonacci price extensions show a peak may target levels near $125~$130 – nearly 20%+ higher than current prices.
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Wednesday, January 27, 2021
Stock Market Investors’ Limitless Risk Appetite / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2021
By: Troy_Bombardia
Investors are buying anything and everything in a manner that’s reminiscent of the 1990s. The best stocks to buy these days: money-losing tech companies. The more losses, the better because growth is the name of the game. In the 1990s, profits didn’t matter. All that mattered was “eyeballs” and user growth.
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Tuesday, January 26, 2021
The End of the World History Stock Market Chart : Big Pattern = Big Move / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2021
By: Rambus_Chartology
We hear so much negativity from both sides of the isle that if a Republican is elected to the presidency then everything is going to hell in a hand basket and if a Democrat is elected then you will be better off to find another country to live in because things will be so bad in the US you won’t want to live here anymore. Conspiracy theories are running so rampant right now that the average American doesn’t know what to believe.
Beside the stock markets giving me financial freedom it has also taught me how to think for myself which can be pretty tough these days. You’ve heard me say this a million times, “playing the stock market is a game of psychological warfare more than anything else.” A good example right now is how most members keep wanting to short the stock markets because everything they read says the markets can’t keep going up for a myriad reasons.
The Great Rescission that began in 2007 and lasted until early 2009, scarred many investors for a lifetime. I saw the same thing with my dad who grew up in the Great Depression. During the 1990’s bull market, which was the greatest bull market of all time at that time, he could never understand how the stock markets could keep going up because of all the fundamental reasons he thought should stop secular bull market dead in its tracks. We had some great debates on the direction of the markets but I wasn’t scarred emotionally by what happened in the Great Depression so I had an open mind and could view the charts with an objective point of view.
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Tuesday, January 26, 2021
Stock Market Recent Sector Triggers Suggest Stocks May Enter Rally Phase / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2021
By: Chris_Vermeulen
Recently, our Best Asset Now (BAN) Hotlist generated a new trigger on the SPY chart. Typically, this type of trigger suggests the SPY is starting a new, potentially explosive, upside price rally. But what really interests us is the potential that the strongest sectoral ETFs may continue to see a much stronger upside price rally as a result of this new trigger.
Recent BAN SPY Trend Trigger
The strength of the BAN Hotlist is not the general market triggers it gives, such as the SPY, Dow Jones, or NASDAQ, but instead the ability to align these major market triggers with the strongest performing sectoral ETFs. This allows those using the Hotlist and BAN strategy to take advantage of the best-performing assets in the markets in any market trend. The new SPY trigger, seen on the chart below, suggests the US stock markets may be starting a new upside price trend, which will cause capital to rotate into different sectors. Our simple BAN Hotlist and strategy helps us identify these sectoral opportunities.
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Monday, January 25, 2021
Stock Market Intermediate Trend Intact / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2021
By: Andre_Gratian
Current Position of the Market
SPX Long-term trend: There is some good evidence that we are still in the bull market which started in 2009 and which could continue into the first quarter of 2021 before coming to an end.
SPX Intermediate trend: May continue until SPX recaches 4150 in February.
Analysis of the short-term trend is done daily with the help of hourly charts. They are important adjuncts to the analysis of daily and weekly charts which determine longer market trends.
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Sunday, January 24, 2021
Stock Market: Why You Should Prepare for a Jump in Volatility / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2020
By: EWI
This volatility indicator "has made a series of higher lows" -- and it's not a good sign
Stock market volatility is like a roller-coaster ride -- extreme ups and downs.
However, unlike thrill-seeking roller-coaster riders who often rise from their seats after the ride with a smile, investors often exit with a frown.
That's because extreme volatility after a stock rally often ends with prices much lower.
Having said that, many investors -- even professionals -- do not anticipate a jump in volatility right now.
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Tuesday, January 19, 2021
How To Find Market Momentum Trades for Explosive Gains / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2021
By: Chris_Vermeulen
Every morning before the markets open I share my video chart analysis of the day’s price action in the indexes, metals, bonds, and more for members of the BAN Trader Pro service. Today we look at the futures of the major indexes, bonds, gold, silver, and miners. I review our open trades and I go through my BAN Hotlist in detail, showing members how to take advantage of the hottest sectors. Learn how we manage risk and implement our BAN (Best Asset Now) strategy to consistently beat the market.
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Monday, January 18, 2021
More Stock Market Speculative Signs, Energy Rebound, Commodities Breakout / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2021
By: Troy_Bombardia
More speculative signs
Speculative signs keep piling up. Contrarian investors and traders have focused on surging penny stocks and micro-cap stocks in recent days. The smallest of small cap stocks are now more than 40% above their 200 day moving average! The last time this happened was in February – March 2000, near the peak of the dot-com bubble.
*This is the Dow Jones Micro-Cap Index, which is the smallest 50% of the Wilshire 5000 index:
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Saturday, January 16, 2021
Three Financial Markets Price Drivers in a Globalized World / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2021
By: P_Radomski_CFA
Do you want to know how gold will be doing soon? Or the USDX? You have to look at the German and French economies. You may ask “What? How can they be tied together?” Well, the globalization of markets is one of the core foundations of the modern world. With everything interrelated, nothing in economics can be examined in a vacuum state. That includes the three precious metals price drivers: stocks, yields and currencies.
The EUR/USD currency pair is a perfect example of this interconnectivity. Being the most popular and most traded currency pair in the world, the EUR/USD is influenced by many factors, including the price action in the USD Index as well as the strength of the European and American economies at any given time. The same level of interconnectedness can be applied to the other price drivers.
Let’s take a fundamental look at stocks, yields and currencies.
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Thursday, January 14, 2021
Here's Why Blind Contrarianism Investing Failed in 2020 / Stock-Markets / Investing 2020
By: EWI
There is only one instance when the investing crowd is right
Yes, there are many times when the market's Elliott wave structure suggests that an investor should take a position "against the crowd," or put another way, be a contrarian.
Prime examples are at market bottoms and tops.
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Thursday, January 14, 2021
US Yield Curve Relentlessly Steepens, Whilst Gold Price Builds a Handle / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2021
By: Gary_Tanashian
Another week, another yield curve steepener and continuation of the trend that began in August, 2019.
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Thursday, January 14, 2021
Finetero Review – Accurate and Efficient Stock Trading Services? / Stock-Markets / Stock Index Trading
By: Submissions
Stocks are among the most attractive trading instruments when fiat currencies lose their purchasing power. That is exactly what’s happening right now and the surge in retail interest for stocks shouldn’t be a surprise. Also, when volatility in the market is elevated, long-term uncertainty follows, which makes short-term trading more suitable. Finetero is one of the brands that cover stock instruments, and it would be worthwhile to mention their main benefits.
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Wednesday, January 13, 2021
Are Covid Lockdowns Bullish or Bearish for Stocks? FTSE 100 in Focus / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2021
By: EWI
"The market has a law of its own. It is not propelled by the external causality..."
Elliott Wave International has long held -- and proven -- that events outside of the market do not determine the long-term trend of prices. In the short term, news and events can, and often do, contribute to market volatility -- although, not always, and not always "logically." But then the long-term trend resumes.
We've shown countless examples of that on these pages -- and here's one of the latest: the lockdowns related to covid. One might conclude that investors would view the business interruptions resulting from a lockdown as a sign that stock prices would decline. Hence, a selloff would occur with each lockdown announcement.
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Tuesday, January 12, 2021
Stocks, Bitcoin, Gold – How Much Are They Worth? / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2021
By: Kelsey_Williams
Stock prices, according to the S&P 500, are up seventy percent from their lows last April. The Nasdaq Composite at its most recent high point was up even more, sporting a ninety-five percent increase from its nadir. A number of individual stocks have done even better.
For the entire year 2020, however, stocks were up a more modest sixteen percent (S&P 500) and only seven percent for the Dow Jones Industrial Average.
However, the outsized performance of the Nasdaq was even more apparent on a full calendar year basis. For 2020 the Nasdaq was up forty-three percent. Relative to its peers, the average Nasdaq stock was up more than three to four times as much as non-Nasdaq stocks.
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Tuesday, January 12, 2021
SPX Short-term Top Imminent / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2021
By: Andre_Gratian
Current Position of the Market
SPX Long-term trend: There is some good evidence that we are still in the bull market which started in 2009 and which could continue into the first quarter of 2021 before coming to an end.
SPX Intermediate trend: May continue until SPX recaches 4150 in February.
Analysis of the short-term trend is done daily with the help of hourly charts. They are important adjuncts to the analysis of daily and weekly charts which determine longer market trends.
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Sunday, January 10, 2021
Financial Market Forecasts 2021: Navigation in Uncharted Waters / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2021
By: The_Gold_Report
Sector expert Michael Ballanger lays out the foundation for his investment strategy in the new year, with uranium and copper augmenting his focus on the precious metals.
As I sat down in mid-December to formulate the draft outline for my 2021 Forecast Issue, I was immediately engulfed with a feeling of impending dread, not by way of dissatisfaction with the investments currently being held in my portfolio and trading accounts, but by being confronted with such a vast array of possible outcomes in the upcoming year 2021. Adding insult to injury, it is also the uncertainty of outcomes that places forecasts directly in the crosshairs of failure and embarrassment, resulting in fewer and less happy subscribers.
In contrast, during the same period one year ago, I knew that the single greatest issue facing us was managing the rapidly approaching debt monster, which allowed me to assume that markets would not look kindly upon the U.S. Fed chairman Jerome Powell and his sudden about-face in monetary policy. When the REPO fiasco began in Q3/2019, it was as plain as the nose on his face that Powell looked into the crystal ball and was horrified with what he saw. His vain (and lame) attempt to "normalize" the Fed balance sheet earlier that year had laid to bare a pitifully fragile debt structure teetering on the brink of implosion. He and his global central bank brethren sprang to action, flooding the world with wave after wave of counterfeit cash otherwise known as "liquidity."
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Saturday, January 09, 2021
Cheers for the 2021 Stock Market and These "Great Expectations" / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2021
By: EWI
Insights into "the most speculative of strategies ... among the most speculative of traders"
We're reminded during this time of year of the wonderful classic by Charles Dickens, "A Christmas Carol."
As you probably know, the Victorian-era British novelist also wrote several other books, including "Great Expectations."
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Friday, January 08, 2021
Who is Buying and Selling Stocks in 2021 / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2021
By: Troy_Bombardia
I wish you a happy and prosperous New Year. May 2021 bring you and your family good health and success.
Looking back, 2020 was a year that few will forget. From a markets point of view, it was a year in which “dumb money” (traders who chase trends) was the smart money. Global central bank intervention caused a “wall of money” to flow from one asset to another, resulting in a year when “everything went up”.
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Thursday, January 07, 2021
Inflation the bug-bear looking forward through 2021 / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2021
By: Christopher_Quigley
Since the Covid 19 crisis began in March 2020 just over 10 trillion dollars have been pumped into the World's economies. This is the reason why the stock markets are breaking into new highs despite the fact that most countries are in recession.
"Given the broad global impact of the COVID-19 crisis, few populations, businesses, sectors, or regions have been able to avoid the knock-on economic effects. That means government measures have had to support large parts of the economy in a very short time to maintain financial stability, maintain household economic welfare, and help companies survive the crisis. In addition, countries have tended to escalate their interventions as the crisis increases in severity and lockdowns persist. Nine of ten countries in our data set have already announced at least one additional financial-relief or -stimulus package. Two-thirds of countries have announced three or more packages, while a few countries have announced as many as six or seven packages".
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Thursday, January 07, 2021
5 Financial Market Surprises in 2021 / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2021
By: Jared_Dillian
Plenty of people made predictions for 2020, with hilarious results.
So for 2021, I am going to give you my list of surprises instead.
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Tuesday, January 05, 2021
Stock Market Approaching an Important Target / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2021
By: Andre_Gratian
Current Position of the Market
SPX Long-term trend: There is some good evidence that we are still in the bull market which started in 2009 and which could continue into the first quarter of 2021 before coming to an end.
SPX Intermediate trend: New intermediate uptrend ending?
Analysis of the short-term trend is done daily with the help of hourly charts. They are important adjuncts to the analysis of daily and weekly charts which determine longer market trends.
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Monday, January 04, 2021
The Year the World Fell Down the Rabbit Hole / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2020
By: Gary_Tanashian
Conspiracies and bias hurt investors
It’s no wonder so many people have been unable to attain proper market positioning in 2020. You invest with your heart, soul, fears or even sometimes your intellect and you risk blowing yourself up at worst, or missing out at best. For much of 2020 Twitter has been a forum for ‘influencers’ with tens of thousands of followers spewing dogma and influencing their herds alright. I watched it happen all year, in the Twitter machine and at other venues.
You know the perma-bearish or ‘got gold?’ types, issuing dire warnings and authoritative discussion of just how bad off the world is (well, it ain’t good, I grant them that). But it’s the practical reaction or lack thereof, not the news itself that matters.
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Monday, January 04, 2021
The Stocks Bull Market is Only Half Completed / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2021
By: Donald_W_Dony
After over 11 years of continuous advancement, the bull market is finally starting to show signs of its age.
Historically, secular bull markets tend to last about 18 years. This was the case for the prior three bull markets.
From 1919 to 1930 and from 1949 to 1970 and again from 1982 to 2000, the U.S. stock market unrelentingly rose despite fundamental and economical challenges.
The current bull market has also faced a number obstacles over the past 11 years. But similar to past secular bulls, shows no signs of altering its upward path.
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Sunday, January 03, 2021
Stock Market Major Peak in Early April 2021 / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2021
By: Chris_Vermeulen
In the first part of this research article, we highlighted some of W.D. Gann’s research, particularly the theory of price vibrations, angles, slopes, and how they relate to future price projections/targets. We also showed how important it was to understand what price does when it reaches these critical inflection points. In this second part of our research, we are going to explore Gann time/price cycles and how they relate to our Fibonacci Price Amplitude Arcs.
Our research will show you exactly why we believe an early April 2021 peak may be setting up in the US/global markets and why you need to prepare for this now. We believe the remainder of the bullish price trend may continue to push higher, scaling very close to the CYAN trendline on the chart below over the next 60+ days before starting to break lower as we near the end of March 2021. Let’s explore why we believe this is likely to happen.
We highlighted the importance of the CYAN trend line and the multiple Fibonacci Price Amplitude Arcs that are arcing through the recent price range in Part I. It is our belief that these critical levels represent a major inflection point in the advance of price and that price may continue to attempt to push higher – but may align itself below the CYAN trendline as it inches closer to the early April Gann price/time arc that we believe will set up a major top in the markets.
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Friday, January 01, 2021
Covid-19, SARS. Swine Flu. All 3 Were a Stock Market Screaming "Buy!" / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2020
By: EWI
Let's take a moment to update you on the relationship between COVID-19 and emerging market stocks. Earlier this year, our publications at Elliott Wave International showed that infectious disease epidemics tend to occur toward the end of bear markets. We cited such examples as SARS, swine flu, and COVID-19, which spread toward the end of major declines in the MSEI Emerging Markets Index.
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Friday, January 01, 2021
Stock Market 2021 Predictions for Another ‘Year Like No Other’ / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2021
By: John_Mauldin
By Robert Ross : Investors might have thought they'd seen it all in 2020. But the stock market action was merely a preview of what's to come in 2021.
Just to take a quick look back, the market gave everyone a scare in 2020 when it bottomed in March. But then the S&P 500 surged 67% between March 23 and year-end.
Certain stocks like Tesla (TSLA), Zoom (ZM) and Moderna (MRNA) performed even better, soaring by triple-digits.
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Thursday, December 31, 2020
Stock Market Price Amplitude Arcs/Gann Suggest A Major Peak in Early April 2021 / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2020
By: Chris_Vermeulen
W.D. Gann mastered price trends (angles/slope) and time in relation to predicting future price trends and peaks/troughs. Over the years, my team and I have done some research related to W.D. Gann’s theories and have come to a simple understanding of some of these concepts. In this article, we will review his primary theory that past price trends may help to predict future price peaks using angles/slopes and time factors.
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Tuesday, December 29, 2020
Stock Market New All Time Highs Through the Prism of AI / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2020
By: Nadeem_Walayat
Stock markets are soaring on the back of vaccines that herald the end game to the Covid nightmare that as I speak is hitting new highs in the US and fast worsening second peaks across Europe. However, much as was for the March crash, the vaccines, covid-19 are all mere blips in the long-term trend trajectory that is being driven by AI and it's full spectrum application. For instance these are the key areas that I identified to focus upon some 5 years ago, though the number is always expanding as AI encroaches on every aspect of our lives which is why my focus is on core AI itself rather than derivatives of AI.
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Monday, December 28, 2020
Stock Market Congestion Top Forming? / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2020
By: Andre_Gratian
Current Position of the Market
SPX Long-term trend: There is some good evidence that we are still in the bull market which started in 2009, and which could continue into the first quarter of 2021 before coming to an end.
SPX Intermediate trend: New intermediate uptrend underway since 2234.
Analysis of the short-term trend is done daily with the help of hourly charts. They are important adjuncts to the analysis of daily and weekly charts which determine longer market trends.
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Sunday, December 27, 2020
Stock Market Trends Fortecast 2021 / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2020
By: Chris_Vermeulen
Last year, I published a ‘What To Expect In 2020’ article that everyone seemed to enjoy. We published this article to help investors and traders prepare for what we believed was going to be an incredibly volatile 2020. Last year our conclusions was:
“Be prepared for a surprising spike in volatility in early 2020 with a moderately strong potential for an early 2020 downside price rotation which prompts a new price trend and possibly an early test of support (near 280 on the SPY chart). 2020 is going to be a fantastic year for skilled traders – get ready for some incredible price action. “
Our proprietary Adaptive Dynamic Learning (ADL) price modeling system has been calling big and unusual market price trends many months in advance over the past 3+ years. Some of the biggest trends the ADL predicted very accurately was the 2017~2018 rally in Gold and the 2019 collapse in Crude Oil.
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Friday, December 25, 2020
Stock Market Dow Quick Take / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2020
By: Nadeem_Walayat
My pre election forecast was for a relatively mild sideways trend into the end of the year awaiting a stream vaccine good news during January 2021.
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Thursday, December 24, 2020
Seeing Stock Market New Highs Through the Prism of AI / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2020
By: Nadeem_Walayat
Stock markets are soaring on the back of vaccines that herald the end game to the Covid nightmare that as I speak is hitting new highs in the US and fast worsening second peaks across Europe. However, much as was for the March crash, the vaccines, covid-19 are all mere blips in the long-term trend trajectory that is being driven by AI and it's full spectrum application. For instance these are the key areas that I identified to focus upon some 5 years ago, though the number is always expanding as AI encroaches on every aspect of our lives which is why my focus is on core AI itself rather than derivatives of AI.
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Tuesday, December 22, 2020
Global Speculation Gone Amok - Stocks Buffett Indicator and Bitcoin / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2020
By: The_Gold_Report
Sector expert Michael Ballanger employs the Buffett Indicator and Bitcoin in his latest analysis of the precious metals markets.
"Gambling is a venture without calculation; speculation is a venture with calculation." — Dickson G. Watts
Being a self-professed speculator in the junior mining space for the past forty-odd years, I used to include that quote in every client letter and in every research piece as a means of reminding readers that the art of speculation involves weighing many different but converging data points. That quote was the brainchild of Dickson G. Watts, an exceedingly successful speculator from the late 1800s and former president of the New York Cotton Exchange, whose book "Speculation as a Fine Art and Thoughts on Life" is a must-read for anyone involved in the financial markets.
With today's credit markets trading on the razor's edge of leverage, never has there been a greater need for us to understand a number of critical realities: 1) that the credit markets are the ultimate arbiter of valuation and risk and stocks merely follow; and 2) that historical measurements used to carry predictive value have today been rendered ineffective due to central bank interventions.
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Tuesday, December 22, 2020
Final Test For The Stock Market Before Year End / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2020
By: Avi_Gilburt
For the almost decade that I have been writing publicly, I have implored you to recognize the importance of market sentiment in determining the direction and turning points in the market.
Yet, I still shake my head when I read articles, or even the comment section to my own articles, as most analysis and comments are so hyper-focused on what the news or other factors will do to the market. And, no matter how many times the market moves opposite to those expectations, the analyst or commenter seems to develop selective amnesia, as they continue on their merry way to yet again analyze the market based upon the same failed perspectives.
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Thursday, December 17, 2020
End-of-Year Review: Your free issue of EWI’s Financial Forecast / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2020
By: EWI
Dear Reader,
For investors worldwide – including you, maybe -- the stock market rallies since March have been one of the biggest head-scratchers of a very head-scratching 2020.
Stocks rallied despite the raging pandemic; despite the shutdowns; despite skyrocketing unemployment and huge economic damage... despite, despite, despite.
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Thursday, December 17, 2020
Stock Market Into 2021 / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2020
By: Donald_W_Dony
Markets continue to show no signs of concern as new highs develop
in Q4 and bullish trends hold (Chart 1). The S&P 500 recently posted a new all-time high of 3588.11 and the TSX is retested an all-time high near 18,000.
Wednesday, December 16, 2020
Custom Index Charts Suggest US Stock Market Ready For A Pause / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2020
By: Chris_Vermeulen
Weeks after the Election Rally initiated a moderately strong upside breakout rally, our Custom Index charts suggest the US stock market may be ready for a brief pause in trending before any new trends continue. Global traders and investors jumped into the US stock market just days before the US elections expecting something big to take place. The rally that initiated just days before the US election pushed our Custom Index charts well into the upper range of the 2016 to 2018 upward sloping price channel. This suggests the US stock markets have ended the downward price reversion and are now attempting to extend into the upward price channel – attempting to resume the upward trending that started after the 2016 elections.
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Tuesday, December 15, 2020
Markets Rallying on Vaccine Hopes, but Higher Taxes and Inflation Loom / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2020
By: MoneyMetals
For months, including this past week, markets have rallied on hopes for a vaccine and more stimulus – even as the real economy is suffering under expanding virus restrictions and as a stimulus deal keeps getting thwarted by partisans in Washington.
Negative divergences are showing up, with market momentum waning and volume thinning in the major averages.
Another threat markets seem to be overlooking – at least for now – is that of tax hikes under an incoming Joe Biden administration.
More on that in a moment. But first, let’s review this week’s price moves in metals markets.
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Tuesday, December 15, 2020
February 2020 COVID Breakdown Gap Acting As Support For Stock Market Rally / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2020
By: Chris_Vermeulen
The difference in the price setup of the initial February COVID-19 downside price gap on the INDU (Dow Jones Industrial Average) vs. the SPY (SPDR S&P500 ETF) clearly shows how this previous gap in price is acting as a critical support level for the current price rally. When the downside price gap first started, near February 25th, 2020, technical traders immediately identified this “impulse gap” as an important price structure to watch in the future. As the US stock markets recovered in late August/September, price levels began to attempt to “fill the gap” on the INDU chart. On the SPY chart in August/September, prices filled the gap then rallied to new highs – initiating a new upside price rally attempt.
My team and I believe these gap levels on the INDU and SPY currently represent a critical horizontal support level for both the INDU and the SPY. This gap range is now acting like a “hard floor” in price that should be watched by all traders. We will examine these setups on the charts below.
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Monday, December 14, 2020
Dow Stock Market Trend Forecast Into January 2020 / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2020
By: Nadeem_Walayat
The stock markets recovery from the Chinese Coronavirus catastrophe has been spectacular. Remember the Dow traded down to a low of just 18,213 on 23rd of March 2020 and then over the next 8 months recovered to a new all time high north of Dow 30,000!
This is the final part of a series of in-depth analysis that concludes in a detailed trend forecast for the stock market into January 2021.
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Monday, December 14, 2020
A Fresh Perspective on Why Stock Market Continues to Defy News / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2020
By: EWI
Why a "disappointing" jobs report did not send stock prices lower
Many market observers assume that the news is the main factor in governing the stock market's trend.
Yet, Elliott Wave International has shown time and again that there's simply no evidence to support this widespread assumption.
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Monday, December 14, 2020
Stock Market Minor Correction Underway / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2020
By: Andre_Gratian
Current Position of the Market
SPX Long-term trend: There is some good evidence that we are still in the bull market which started in 2009, and which could continue into the first quarter of 2021 before coming to an end.
SPX Intermediate trend: New intermediate uptrend underway since 2234.
Analysis of the short-term trend is done daily with the help of hourly charts. They are important adjuncts to the analysis of daily and weekly charts which determine longer market trends.
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Sunday, December 13, 2020
Copper & Bonds Telegraphed the 2020 COVID Stock Market Collapse / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2020
By: Chris_Vermeulen
A very interesting setup in both Copper and Bonds seemed to have telegraphed the collapse in the US stock market in early 2020. T-Bonds, which had been consolidating into a downward price channel prior to the COVID outbreak, suddenly broke through the downward price channel and started to accelerate higher. Copper, which is a fairly common commodity for building, infrastructure, and other uses, had been moving higher above a clear upward price channel, then suddenly broke lower in early 2020. Both Bond and Copper seemed to break these price channels nearly 20+ days before the US stock markets initiated their price decline on February 24, 2020.
My research team and I believe this setup is not inconsequential for technical traders. The breakdown in Copper represents a core “demand” failure, while the breakout in Bonds suggests risks are elevating. This is something we should continue to watch for in the future as Copper and Bond prices typically move before the US stock market begins to react.
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Sunday, December 13, 2020
Yes, "Active Stock Investment Managers" DO Behave Like the "Crowd" / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2020
By: EWI
...and that's not a good thing
When people hear the phrase "investing crowd," they tend to think of Main Street investors. Usually dipping their toe in the water after the trend has been underway for quite some time, they are typically seen as the "more cautious" types than Wall Street pros.
Of course, there is a flip side to that "cautiousness": The "investing crowd" is known for panic-selling near market bottoms and going "all in" near major market tops.
What's more, Main Street investors are not alone in their "crowd" behavior. It actually permeates most of the investment world, including the professionals.
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Thursday, December 10, 2020
US STOCK MARKET Custom Index Charts Show Clear Bullish Trending / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2020
By: Chris_Vermeulen
My research team and I have created Custom Index charts that highlight the continued upside/bullish trend that is taking place in the US stock markets. We continued to stay moderately cautious in late October and early November because of the extensive price rotation at that time and because of the US election event. The dramatic rally in the US markets that started before the US elections prompted our research team to pause and evaluate how must risk was being ignored by the upside price rally. Initially, we discounted the rally as a speculative move in the market – likely to end badly and quickly.
Now, after our Custom Index charts have established moderate momentum signals and what appears to be a very solid global market influx of capital into various US market sectors, we believe this rally may still have some legs behind it.
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Tuesday, December 08, 2020
Stock Market New Short-term Target / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2020
By: Andre_Gratian
Current Position of the Market
SPX Long-term trend: There is some good evidence that we are still in the bull market which started in 2009 and which could continue into the first quarter of 2021 before coming to an end.
SPX Intermediate trend: New intermediate uptrend underway since 2234.
Analysis of the short-term trend is done daily with the help of hourly charts. They are important adjuncts to the analysis of daily and weekly charts which determine longer market trends.
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Tuesday, December 08, 2020
Stock Market Is Terribly Stretched / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2020
By: Avi_Gilburt
When the market rallies after bad news hits the wires regarding the vaccine, and when the market rallies after news of lower job growth, well, that is the hallmark of a bull market.
You see, during positive sentiment trends, the market rallies on good news, and the market rallies on bad news. In effect, the news is truly meaningless, as the general market sentiment is all that matters. And, if this has not become abundantly clear to you since the lows in March, then there is no hope for you. In fact, the market rallied 1400 S&P500 points and over 63% during the worst of the Covid news, and during a full country economic shut down. How much more evidence do you need to see that sentiment is the true driver of market price?
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Tuesday, December 01, 2020
Stocks Bears Last Chance Before Market Rally To SPX 4200 In 2021 / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2020
By: Avi_Gilburt
hen the market was crashing back in March, I distinctly remember how palatable the fear within the market was at the time. Many were even talking about how the market itself was about to “break.”
Yet, once we broke down below the 2400SPX region, and began to approach our long-time target of 2200SPX for that correction, I told the members of ElliottWaveTrader.net that I was now putting my cash back to work in the market. And, yes, many of them thought me to be crazy at the time, with those members now telling how much they had wished they had listened to me and followed my lead.
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Sunday, November 29, 2020
Stock Market Short-term Decision Time / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2020
By: Andre_Gratian
Current Position of the Market
SPX Long-term trend: There is some good evidence that we are still in the bull market which started in 2009.
SPX Intermediate trend: New intermediate uptrend underway since 2234.
Analysis of the short-term trend is done daily with the help of hourly charts. They are important adjuncts to the analysis of daily and weekly charts which discuss longer market trends.
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Saturday, November 28, 2020
Dow Stock Market Short-term and Long-term Trend Analysis / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2020
By: Nadeem_Walayat
The stock markets recovery from the Chinese Coronavirus catastrophe has been spectacular. Remember the Dow traded down to a low of just 18,213 on 23rd of March 2020 and then over the next 6 months recovered to a high of 29,200, just 400 points shy of making a new all time high! That is a spectacular bull run!
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Wednesday, November 25, 2020
Dow Stock Market Trend Analysis / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2020
By: Nadeem_Walayat
THE STOCK MARKET BIG PICTURE
The starting point for this analysis is to remind my Patrons of the BIG PICTURE, the general trend trajectory for AI stocks as illustrated by my following concluding graph from June 2020. (Machine Intelligence Quantum AI Stocks Mega-Trend Forecast 2020 to 2035!)
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Wednesday, November 25, 2020
Financial Stocks Sector ETF Shows Unique Island Setup – What Next? / Stock-Markets / Banking Stocks
By: Chris_Vermeulen
One would think the Financial Sector would be doing quite well related to the booming housing market and a decline in overall consumer debt and delinquency levels. Historically, the XLF chart shows that $32 is very close to the 2007 peak levels before the collapse that started in late 2007. Currently, the February 2020 highs represent a similar price peak level (near $32), and the current upside price trend has stalled near $27.50, which is a very strong resistance level.
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Tuesday, November 24, 2020
Stock Market SEASONAL TREND and ELECTION CYCLE / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2020
By: Nadeem_Walayat
Stock market seasonal trend is usually for a weak October followed by strong November and December, which this year is being disrupted by the election. So where the election cycle is concerned the first few months of a new presidency tends to be subdued, following which the bull market settles in and continues it's business as usual. So we could be heading for a subdued 5 to 6 months.
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Tuesday, November 24, 2020
I Dislike Shallow People And Shallow Market Pullbacks / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2020
By: Avi_Gilburt
Well, let’s start with the “shallow people.” And, within the context of markets, I am specifically referring to those with shallow and superficial perspectives about markets.
You see, the typical manner in which many view markets is that they see a market move, look to the news, and assume that the news of the day “caused” the market move that we see.
The reason that this is superficial is because we often see the market move in the exact opposite way one would have expected based upon the substance of the news event, leaving many scratching their heads. And, if you are honest with yourself, you know this has likely happened to you many times.
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Monday, November 23, 2020
Stock Market Elliott Wave Analysis / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2020
By: Nadeem_Walayat
My commonsense interpretation of EWT resolves in a clear cut 5 wave advance into the Mid September peak with subsequent price action resolving in an ABC corrective decline.
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Monday, November 23, 2020
Confidence Erodes in U.S. Institutions... Is the Dollar Next? / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2020
By: MoneyMetals
Confidence in American politics is now rarer than gold.
The U.S. election system, once sacrosanct, is losing the trust of half the country. Which half will depend on the outcome of Donald Trump’s efforts in the courts to demonstrate widespread fraud.
The political left is certain Joe Biden is the rightful winner. They dismiss Trump's legal team as hacks and are unconcerned with the sworn affidavits and other evidence of fraud brought forth in legal cases.
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Sunday, November 22, 2020
Stock Market 2020 vs 2016 and 2012 / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2020
By: Nadeem_Walayat
How does 2020 compare to the last 2 presidential elections in terms of stock market trend.
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Sunday, November 22, 2020
Stock Market Short-term Correction / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2020
By: Andre_Gratian
Current Position of the Market
SPX Long-term trend: There is some good evidence that we are still in the bull market which started in 2009.
SPX Intermediate trend: New intermediate uptrend underway.
Analysis of the short-term trend is done daily with the help of hourly charts. They are important adjuncts to the analysis of daily and weekly charts which discuss longer market trends.
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Saturday, November 21, 2020
Stock Market SPY/SPX Island Setups Warn Of A Potential Reversal In This Uptrend / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2020
By: Chris_Vermeulen
My researchers and I want to highlight a Weekly chart pattern that is warning of a potential Top/Reversal in the SPY & SPX. Although the current trend is Bullish and the markets are looking forward to the new year, new policies, and probably new stimulus which normally prompts some type of upward price rally in the markets, we see an “Island Setup” that has continued to form after all the positive COVID-19 vaccine news.
An Island Setup in price is when price moves or Gaps away from a typical price range or boundaries, then stalls. This type of setup is similar in structure to a Doji Star setup in an “Evening Star” formation. Similarly, the Doji Star pattern also warns of a possible trend reversal. Our researchers believe any continued failure to rally at this stage points to a very real downside price reversal setting up in the SPY/SPX. Let’s take a look at some Weekly charts.
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Friday, November 20, 2020
Stock Market Dow Long-term Trend Analysis / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2020
By: Nadeem_Walayat
The stock market is having its first significant correction since the start of it's bull run following the corona crash into March 2020. Failure to hold support at 26,500 is eyeing a trend to next support at 25,000. Though MACD is oversold so implies limited downside. Of course price action is heavily influenced by election uncertainty.
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Friday, November 20, 2020
Margin: How Stock Market Investors Are "Reaching for the Stars" / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2020
By: EWI
"This is the highest ratio in the 20-year history of the data."
One of the historic ways that stock market investors exhibit conviction about the direction of prices is to use leverage or participate in the market with borrowed money. Yet another way of putting it is to "trade on margin."
Going all the way back to 1929, that was the downfall of many who viewed the market as a quick way to get rich.
Here's an Oct. 29, 1929 Boston Daily Globe headline:
Margin Account Dumping Brings Stock Crash ...
Yet, you can find examples in more recent history too
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Thursday, November 19, 2020
THE STOCK MARKET BIG PICTURE - Video / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2020
By: Nadeem_Walayat
The starting point for my stock market analysis is to remind all of the BIG PICTURE, the general trend trajectory for AI stocks as illustrated by my following concluding graph from June 2020. (Machine Intelligence Quantum AI Stocks Mega-Trend Forecast 2020 to 2035! )
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Thursday, November 19, 2020
DJIA Short-term Stock Market Technical Trend Analysis / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2020
By: Nadeem_Walayat
Dow Short-term Analysis
The stock markets recovery from the Chinese Coronavirus catastrophe has been spectacular. Remember the Dow traded down to a low of just 18,213 on 23rd of March 2020 and then over the next 6 months recovered to a high of 29,200, just 400 points shy of making a new all time high! That is a spectacular bull run! So given that we have entered the weakest period of the year (October) AND that there is an election on the 3rd of November then the least surprising thing should be that the stock market has entered into the correction. In fact the only surprising thing is that the Dow did not start correcting earlier in the month, instead it even tried to break towards a new post crash high Mid October, which was a little puzzling at the time as it implied the market was discounting a Trump election victory that was invisible to most including me. Nevertheless it was ringing the alarm bells that Trump could even win, why else is the stock market soaring.
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Wednesday, November 18, 2020
Dow Jones E-Mini Futures Tag 30k Twice – Setting Up Stock Market Double Top / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2020
By: Chris_Vermeulen
Sometimes the markets telegraph a key level or future target level in pre-market or post-market trading. Other times these telegraphed price targets happen during regular trading hours. Recently, the Dow Jones E-Mini Futures Contracts (YM) generated two unique high price levels near $30,000 over the span of about 6 trading days.
My research team and I believe this “telegraphed high price target level” is a warning of major resistance for traders. These types of broad market patterns are not very common on charts. They happen sometimes, but very rarely like this example on the YM chart below. This Double Top (Tweezers) pattern may be warning that the $30,000 level on the YM could become a major market peak/turning point. Additionally, the post election rally reached this $30,000 level on the day Pfizer announced the vaccine data, then sold off quite consistently throughout the regular trading session.
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Tuesday, November 17, 2020
Are You Getting Ready For The Next Stock Market Crash? / Stock-Markets / Stock Market Crash
By: Avi_Gilburt
First published on Seeking Alpha pre-open on Monday November 16: I have read one article after another calling this market delusional, wrong, crazy, impossible, dangerous, a bubble, etc. And what is common amongst all these articles is that none of the authors expected the market to rise this high. Moreover, they all point to Covid as the primary reason for their bearishness. So, when they don’t understand what is going on, they resort to name calling.
But, calling the market names will not help your investment accounts. Moreover, has basing your market perspective on Covid helped your investment account? Rather, it behooves you to seek out a better way to understand the market.
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Tuesday, November 17, 2020
Stock Market Uptrend in Process / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2020
By: Andre_Gratian
Current Position of the Market
SPX Long-term trend: There is some good evidence that we are still in the bull market which started in 2009.
SPX Intermediate trend: An intermediate correction has ended.
Analysis of the short-term trend is done daily with the help of hourly charts. They are important adjuncts to the analysis of daily and weekly charts which discuss longer market trends.
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Thursday, November 12, 2020
Access to Critical Market Reports / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2020
By: EWI
Dear Reader,
Like millions of people, you may have tried your hand at intraday trading this year.
Sure, today’s market platforms make executing your trades easy. But winning consistently is still hard. Especially when the waves are as big as they are right now.
This will help. For 3 days only on November 10-12, our friends at elliottwave.com are hosting a new, trader-focused event, "Critical Opportunities FreePass.".
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Thursday, November 12, 2020
Stock Market Dow Futures Reach 30,000 on News of COVID-19 Vaccine Trials Success / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2020
By: Chris_Vermeulen
Early this morning, the US stock market indexes/futures rallied on news that Pfizer’s new COVID-19 vaccine late-stage trials appear to show 90% effective rates. Overall, this is very good news for the US and global market economic recovery efforts. It means we may be able to get back to somewhat normal very quickly (as soon as the Fast-Track FDA approval process is complete). The YM (Dow Jones E-Mini Futures) reached a high of 30,000 very early today – which is a huge psychological level for traders.
After the US elections last week and the continued news of the outcome – the global financial markets were really wanting some type of good news instead of more chaos and unknowns. The Pfizer news hit the pre-market trading like a booster rocket. Before the opening bell in New York, the Dow Jones futures were up over 1500 points – which is simply incredible.
If you’ve followed my research long enough, you’ve heard me use the term “Pop-n-Drop”. A “Pop-n-Drop” is when something big drives a big market gap which quickly falls down later in the trading session(s). This happend because market prices always have a way of reverting back to somewhat normal trading ranges. Let’s take a look at a few different charts/sectors to help illustrate this type of setup.
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Wednesday, November 11, 2020
Stock Market Secular Trend / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2020
By: Donald_W_Dony
The secular upward trend of the world's stock markets never missed a beat due to the ongoing turmoil surrounding the U.S. President election this last month.
The benchmark world index (Dow Jones Global Index) is set to post a new all-time high later this month which continues the pattern of 11-years of higher highs and higher lows (Chart 1).
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Wednesday, November 11, 2020
Stock Market Correction Curtailed by US Election / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2020
By: Andre_Gratian
Current Position of the Market
SPX Long-term trend: For now, the best guesstimate is that we are still in the bull market which started in 2009. Where we go from here and how far, will be gauged after the September-November correction.
SPX Intermediate trend: Intermediate correction may have ended.
Analysis of the short-term trend is done daily with the help of hourly charts. It is an important adjunct to the analysis of daily and weekly charts which discuss longer market trends.
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Wednesday, November 11, 2020
What Causes a Financial Bubble? / Stock-Markets / Liquidity Bubble
By: Travis_Bard
Financial bubbles refer to a situation in which an asset sees a rapid increase in price and demand driven by a theoretical interest, then crashes as the rising prices become unsustainable over time. When reaching a specific value, the asset bubble bursts, and its prices reduce to a level that more accurately reflects its intrinsic value. Financial bubbles are typically attributed to a sudden change in investor behaviour, in which hypes, excessive speculation and the strong desire to ‘jump on the bandwagon’ of a certain trending asset play a part. In this article, let’s explore the potential causes of a financial bubble.
For a comprehensive history of financial bubbles, check out this comprehensive timeline by DailyFX.
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Sunday, November 08, 2020
What to Make of an “Irrational” Stock Market / Stock-Markets / Investing 2020
By: John_Mauldin
Justin Spittler : We’re also smack dab in the middle of earnings season. This is when companies tell the world how their business is doing. They reveal how much their sales grew and if they turned a profit.
Good quarterly results, as I’m sure you know, can cause a stock to race higher. Bad earnings, on the other hand, can send a stock into a tailspin. In fact, it’s quite common for a stock to move 20%, 30%, or even 40% in a day based on earnings.
More importantly, earnings can set the tone for a stock going forward. They can dictate a stock’s trajectory for weeks, months, or even years. But here’s the thing. Not all good earnings ignite powerful rallies. Sometimes, companies crush earnings and barely move or even fall on the news. We’ve been seeing this play out a lot recently.
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Sunday, November 08, 2020
Why the Market's "Faith in the Fed" May Be Dwindling Fast / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2020
By: EWI
A chart that could be "a proxy for the market's faith in the Fed" shows "a classic loss of momentum"
Legendary financier John Pierpont Morgan was -- for all practical purposes -- a one-man central bank before the Fed came into existence in 1913.
During the financial panic of 1907, the banking titan used his influence to provide bailouts for faltering financial institutions. And, back in 1895, he had actually loaned the federal government money during another crisis.
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Sunday, November 08, 2020
Get Ready for a Post-Election ‘Fed Wave’ of Inflation / Stock-Markets / Quantitative Easing
By: MoneyMetals
As accusations of voting irregularities mount, President Donald Trump’s legal team is descending on Pennsylvania and Georgia as well as multiple battleground states that have been called by media outlets for Joe Biden.
It will be an uphill battle for Trump to get to 270 electoral votes. As of this writing on Thursday morning, the final outcome of the presidential election remains uncertain.
One thing that is now certain: Voters denied Democrats the “blue wave” many pollsters and pundits had been forecasting.
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Friday, November 06, 2020
THE STOCK MARKET BIG PICTURE / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2020
By: Nadeem_Walayat
Will the November 3rd election earthquake trigger a stock market Tsunami or just a few inconsequential waves lapping on the market shore? Here we stand just a few days away from the US presidential election with the liberal MSM in a state of electoral fever as their preferred candidate is way ahead on the polls looking set to win, just as their favoured candidate Hillary Clinton in 2016 was way head of the polls so unlike 2016 there is an edge to the frenzy of their activity given the awareness that the polls tend to be wrong, skewed against conservative voters and opinions. However, 2020 is even more chaotic than 2016, as this year there is the backdrop of the chinese virus raging across the US and especially in many US swing states that is contributing towards new cases of infection soaring to new plandemic highs with deaths already having broken above 230,000! Near double all of the US lives lost in all of the wars since 194 that acts as a continuing noose around the US economy, though that has so far not been enough to full fill that which the perma stock market doom merchants have been proclaiming for a more than a decade, an end to the stocks bull market.
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Friday, November 06, 2020
Trump or Biden - USA is Still Going Bananas / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2020
By: Gary_Tanashian
You see, it’s not a Trump thing. It’s an ‘America is so hopelessly indebted (as are other developed economies) that they have no choice now’ thing.
However the election shakes out – most likely Democrat president and congress, Republican senate – the stock market is cheering two things in my opinion. It is cheering US dollar compromising fiscal stimulus (Fed prints, politicians spend) and the coming of more US dollar compromising monetary policy (Fed prints, Fed monetizes bonds AKA debt, Fed screws with any other esoteric tool it can get its hands on in the age of MMT TMM, AKA Total Market Manipulation).
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Tuesday, November 03, 2020
Stock Market SPY Channeling lower Ahead of US Election Result / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2020
By: Chris_Vermeulen
From a simple technical standpoint, we’ve seen a number of recent breakdowns in the SPY related to Fibonacci Price Theory and Price Gap Theory. One of the most critical components of the recent 60+ days price activity in the SPY is the failed new high on October 12. This failed attempt to rally above the previous high price level, near 358.82, suggests a broader market price decline has setup (a downtrend).
SPY 240 MINUTE CHART
After the failed new high peak on October 12, a series of new downside price gaps can be seen in the SPY chart below as price accelerated downward. These unfilled price gaps represent price acceleration to the downside and will eventually exhaust – creating a new momentum base/bottom.
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Monday, November 02, 2020
Stocks and the Dollar Weigh Into US Presidential Election 2020 / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2020
By: P_Radomski_CFA
It’s evident that stocks have once again invalidated the breakout above their early-2020 high. They have also closed the week below the lowest weekly September close. Back in September, the S&P 500 index reversed on a weekly basis and rallied once again. This is similar to what happened in 2018 (August) when stocks first broke to new highs. Back then, the volatility was lower, and therefore it’s no wonder that the breakout held and this time (in September) it was temporarily invalidated.
Back in 2018, stocks moved to a new high (not significantly higher), and this time they didn’t manage to do so, but were quite close (the rally seems to have burned itself out in August).
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Monday, November 02, 2020
Stock Market Correction Continues / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2020
By: Andre_Gratian
Current Position of the Market
SPX Long-term trend: For now, the best guesstimate is that we are still in the bull market which started in 2009. Where we go from here and how far will be gauged after the September-November correction.
SPX Intermediate trend: Intermediate correction could continue as a large sideways pattern at least into mid-November, and perhaps until the end of the year.
Analysis of the short-term trend is done daily with the help of hourly charts. It is an important adjunct to the analysis of daily and weekly charts which discuss longer market trends.
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Monday, November 02, 2020
Stock Market Breakdown May Extend Deeper If Support Is Broken / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2020
By: Chris_Vermeulen
The breakdown in the markets last week may have caught some traders off guard and resulted in a few stressful days. As much as we want to tell you the selling is over, my researchers and I believe the selling may continue for a bit longer as the election and uncertainty related to COVID-19, global economics and post election stimulus and US government issues continue to plague future growth expectations.
We’re presenting these custom index charts today to help you understand where key support levels are in the broader market and to help you understand what to expect if this selling continues. Over the past few weeks, we’ve published a number of research articles that provide important background and context to this article, including our research on the SPY Dark Cloud Cover pattern, NASDAQ E-minis Futures support levels, and what we see in store for prices of Gold and Silver.
One of the tools we use, in conjunction with our proprietary indicators, price modeling, and trading systems is our Custom Index charts. These charts help us to gauge and understand market price activity as well as to help quantify the scale and scope of recent trends. For example, we use these charts (and others) to better understand where, when, and how the underlying facets of the markets are shifting. Often times, this allows us to see how the mechanics of the markets are working before the outcome really starts to become evident.
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Sunday, November 01, 2020
Here’s Why The Stock Market Doesn’t Care About Next Week’s Election / Stock-Markets / Tech Stocks
By: Stephen_McBride
We’re just days away from one of the most anticipated elections in history. And I’m afraid millions of investors are going to waste time and money trying to “guess” who’ll win and how it will impact markets.
The truth is, smart investors won’t waste a second worrying about which party will win. In today’s essay, I’ll show you why, and share some of my top stocks to own right now.
I could fill the next five pages with data points about how stocks performed under different presidents. I’ve even read theories saying it’s best to buy stocks on October 1 of the second year of a presidential term and sell on December 31 of the fourth year.
I’ve done all the boring work for you. I’ve studied the data back as far as 1897, and one thing is crystal clear: There isn’t some golden, predictable pattern when it comes to presidents and the stock market.
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Friday, October 30, 2020
A New World Monetary Order Is Coming / Stock-Markets / Global Financial System
By: MoneyMetals
The global coronavirus pandemic has accelerated several troubling trends already in force. Among them are exponential debt growth, rising dependency on government, and scaled-up central bank interventions into markets and the economy.
Central bankers now appear poised to embark on their biggest power play ever.
Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell, in coordination with the European Central Bank and International Monetary Fund (IMF), is preparing to roll out central bank digital currencies.
The globalist IMF recently called for a new “Bretton Woods Moment” to address the loss of trillions of dollars in global economic output due to the coronavirus.
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Thursday, October 29, 2020
Stock Market Turning? Look For These Support Levels / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2020
By: Chris_Vermeulen
The breakdown in the US stock markets early on Monday, October 26, was more about investor expectations and a transitioning away from risk ahead of the US Elections than any other factor. No new stimulus deal being reached in addition to a surge in US COVID-19 cases recently suggests another contraction in the US economy may not be too far away. Additionally, as news bombs seem to be nearly an hourly event, investors and traders are suddenly much more uncertain of the outcome of the US elections which are nearly 7 days away.
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Thursday, October 29, 2020
Stocks are Strong but be Aware of this Continuing Pattern / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2020
By: Chris_Vermeulen
The last 6+ trading days before the US elections could result in a confirmation of last month’s SPY Dark Cloud Cover pattern or a potential Harami pattern setup. What does this mean for traders and investors?
The Dark Cloud Cover pattern is a very ominous potential Top/Sell trigger in Japanese Candlestick terms. It is a fairly common pattern, like the Engulfing Bearish pattern, that manifests near major peaks in price. The one thing that really stuck out with the current Dark Cloud Cover pattern on the Monthly SPY chart was the size of the pattern. The current Dark Cloud Cover pattern on the Monthly SPY chart spans 39.56 points (nearly an 11% price range). Comparatively, this pattern is very large compared to the more recent price peak ranges.
Over the past 30+ days, we’ve published multiple research articles related to the core technical elements of the SPY chart and the Dark Cloud Cover pattern that set up in September. Pay very close attention to the Fibonacci Price Amplitude Arcs that also show key resistance playing out near the recent peaks. Finally, don’t forget to read our Grey Swan Alert in October’s issue of TradersWorld.
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Sunday, October 25, 2020
Corporate Earnings Season: Here's What Stock Investors Need to Know / Stock-Markets / Corporate Earnings
By: EWI
Many investors and financial journalists believe that corporate earnings play a large role in driving stock market prices.
Here's just a couple of headlines from Oct. 13:
- Stocks open mixed on first day of earnings season (MarketWatch)
- U.S. Stocks Drop as Earnings Season Begins (Wall Street Journal)
The idea that earnings drive stock market prices seems to make sense. After all, corporations exist to make money, and if they exceed expectations, it seems logical that their share prices should skyrocket. If earnings disappoint, logic suggests that stocks should tank. And, in all fairness, when it comes to individual companies' earnings, they can and do affect prices -- although not always, and not always logically. But when you compare broad market performance with trends in earnings, you start to see a glaring disconnect. Why?
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Friday, October 23, 2020
Nasdaq Retests 11,735 Support / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2020
By: Chris_Vermeulen
Today, we are going to examine what I believe is a sideways price FLAG in the NASDAQ E-Mini Futures (NQ) that should begin a breakdown move. We believe this breakdown trend will prompt a retest of the broad support zone between 11,200 and 11,500 over the next few days and weeks. Our research team believes the current APEX formation of this FLAG formation could complete before the end of trading on Tuesday, October 20, 2020, with a very tight upward price move followed by a breakdown price move completing the Pennant/Flag formation.
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Friday, October 23, 2020
Doji Clusters Show Clear Support Ranges for Stock Market S&P500 Index / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2020
By: Chris_Vermeulen
Clusters of Doji shaped candles have, for centuries, illustrated very clear levels of support/resistance in price action. Whenever multiple Doji candles appear in a cluster-like formation, traders should pay attention to these levels as future support/resistance ranges for price action. In the case of the S&P500 E-Mini Futures Daily Chart, we can clearly see three separate support zones – the highest one being right where price closed on Friday (near 3475).
As the US elections near, we do expect increased volatility to become a factor in the US markets. Currently, our predictive modeling systems are suggesting a Bullish trend bias is in place in the markets. Therefore, we expect the bias of the trend to continue to push higher. Yet, these Doji Cluster support levels become very clear downside targets if increased volatility prompts any broad market rotation over the next few days/weeks. These three levels are :
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Wednesday, October 21, 2020
High-Profile Billionaire Gives Urgent Message to Stock Investors / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2020
By: EWI
In a deflationary depression, the prices of most financial assets crater, including stocks.
One well-known billionaire says it's time to shift into cash.
Here's an excerpt from a Sept. 22 CNBC article:
Billionaire media mogul Barry Diller on Tuesday urged investors to maintain sizable cash positions following the stock market's robust rally from coronavirus-induced lows in late March.
"Personally, and professionally, every nickel you can, keep it ... wherever it's banked," the chairman of both Expedia and digital media group IAC said ... "I think the market right now is a great speculation, I would stay home."
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Tuesday, October 20, 2020
More Short-term Stock Market Weakness Ahead / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2020
By: Andre_Gratian
Current Position of the Market
SPX Long-term trend: For now, the best guesstimate is that we are still in the bull market which started in 2009. Where we go from here and how far will be gauged after the September-October correction.
SPX Intermediate trend: Intermediate correction nearly over?
Analysis of the short-term trend is done daily with the help of hourly charts. It is an important adjunct to the analysis of daily and weekly charts which discuss longer market trends.
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Monday, October 19, 2020
Commodity Bull Market Cycle Starts with Euro and Dollar Trend Changes / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2020
By: Chris_Vermeulen
In this report, I would like to show you how currency values play an important role in the price of commodities like gold and silver. The analysis here is all about the EUR/USD currency pair to give you an idea of how they can help time and predict future price movement in metals. This is just one commodity pair out of several which provide similar insight and the more pairs that confirm, the stronger our signal and market timing will be.
Commodity bull eras do not need a strong Euro… but it definitely helps if the US Dollar weakens, as anything denominated in it like gold, silver, and oil will have a higher nominal value.
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Monday, October 19, 2020
Stock Market Melt-Up Triggered a Short Squeeze In The NASDAQ and a Utilities Breakout / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2020
By: Chris_Vermeulen
Rather quickly in trading late Sunday night, the NQ (NASDAQ E-Mini Futures) began to move higher quite consistently. By the time the markets opened in London on Monday, the rally was ON. We believe this is related to two underlying factors:
A. Short positions were getting squeezed after the end of week rally in the markets last week. The upside price pressure early in trading on Sunday/Monday likely forced many of these shorts out of the market – creating a Short Squeeze.
B. Global traders may be interpreting a biased election victory by Donald Trump based on news events or other information. This close to an election and with pending Q3 earnings just days away, a melt-up rally like this is fairly uncommon – unless you take into consideration that global investors may be pre positioning for an expected outcome.
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Monday, October 19, 2020
“Hypergrowth” Is Spilling Into the Stock Market Like Never Before / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2020
By: Stephen_McBride
Brian Chesky’s bank account had dwindled to $1,000. He had no job. And the rent on his San Francisco apartment was about to jump by 25%.
With his back against the wall, Chesky tried a “silly” idea to make some cash. He put three inflatable mattresses in his spare bedroom and offered to rent them to attendees of an upcoming conference in town.
Chesky built a rudimentary website and advertised it as Air Bed and Breakfast. That “silly” idea is worth $30 billion today. You surely know Airbnb as the wildly successful website that lets you rent out your home to travelers.
Founded just 12 years ago, it now lists more rooms than major hotel chains Marriott and Hilton—combined!
In today’s issue I’ll show you the secret that upstart Airbnb used to beat two of the world’s most successful hotel chains.
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Thursday, October 15, 2020
Stock Market SPY Retesting Critical Resistance From Fibonacci Price Amplitude Arc / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2020
By: Chris_Vermeulen
RESEARCH HIGHLIGHTS:
- We continue to monitor the $339.50 level as a key resistance level.
- Our weekly SPY chart is showing that the Fibonacci Price Amplitude Arc resistance level is acting as a ceiling for price and a downward trend in the Momentum indicator.
- The current rally in price may simply be another Bull-Trap set up in a typical “R” price formation near our Fibonacci Price Amplitude Arc resistance level.
- A SPY breakout or rally above $339.50 pushes us closer to the all-time highs, which could then could prompt a new breakout/rally in price.
My research team and I have been watching with keen interest how the markets have continued to trend sideways since setting up a major price peak on September 2, 2020. We’ve continued to suggest general market weakness in the US major indexes was likely to take place after nearly all of the US major indexes rallied above the February 2020 price highs. Our bigger concern was that a “Bull Trap” was setting up just 60+ days before the US elections.
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Wednesday, October 14, 2020
Stock Market Digestion After Decisive Bullish Trend Day / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2020
By: Ricky_Wen
Monday was a "gap up and go" session that did not look back in the rearview mirror as price action was able to decisively break above 3500s on the Emini S&P 500 (ES). This is the 78.6% retracement of the entire drop (3587-3198).
In addition, the market made its way into the 3540s area, which was also a key level around the 88.6% retracement. All in all, it was a decisive daily bullish trend day that also managed to close above two standard deviation channel highs.
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Wednesday, October 14, 2020
Do Low Interest Rates Mean Higher Stocks? Not so Fast… / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2020
By: EWI
"Rates Down, Stocks Up"? Myth ... Busted!
Let's address widespread assumptions about interest rates and the stock market
There's a widespread belief that rising interest rates are bad for stocks and a lower interest rate trend is good for stocks.
The reasoning behind that belief is that bonds compete with stocks for investment funds. Hence, the higher the yield investors can get from bonds, the less attractive stocks become and vice-versa.
This assumption sounds logical, but in reality, stock market investors do not take their cue from rising or falling yields (or interest rates).
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Tuesday, October 13, 2020
Stock Market Short-term Top Expected / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2020
By: Andre_Gratian
Current Position of the Market
SPX Long-term trend: For now, the best guesstimate is that we are still in the bull market which started in 2009. Where we go from here and how far will be gauged after the September-October correction.
SPX Intermediate trend: Intermediate correction nearly over?
Analysis of the short-term trend is done daily with the help of hourly charts. It is an important adjunct to the analysis of daily and weekly charts which discuss longer market trends.
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Monday, October 12, 2020
Fear Grips Stock Market Short-Sellers -- What to Make of It / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2020
By: EWI
"This is easily the lowest wager against rising S&P rises" in the history of the data
As you may know, short-selling a stock means that a speculator is betting that the price will go down.
This is a lot riskier than taking a "long" position in a stock -- or, betting that the price will go up.
The reason why is that the most a speculator can lose by going long is 100% of his investment -- say, if a company goes out of business. However, the losses a short-seller can suffer is potentially unlimited, in other words, short-sellers can lose way more than their initial investment.
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